Talking Chop

Last week, I professed my love for Topps Series 1. A few days ago, my set arrived in the mail. There are few things I enjoy more than slipping cards into pages to place in a binder. It’s an ideal opportunity to inspect each card. I say again, I love the 330 cards that comprise 2012 Topps Series 1. That said, you might find it strange that I purchased the set rather than opened a box and attempted to build a set in the more traditional fashion.

I’ve mentioned before that opening wax is a high. If money were no object, I would purchase and open everything Topps puts out. My money is limited though so I have to be choosy how I spend it. When I got back into card collecting in 2005, I opened a box of each series of the main Topps sets. I’d then complete those sets using eBay or by trading with other collector’s that I’ve met online. This is my preferred method of set building, especially for the Topps base set. It’s also something I don’t do anymore.

Topps has begun to cram more and more items into the base set product in attempt to drive up popularity. I can only assume that the thought is that the traditional set builders are in for the long haul, and the gimmicks are to try and attract high end collectors and outsiders into the hobby. If you check out the sell sheet for any base Topps product, the emphasis is not on the cards in the base set. Topps is selling the inserts. Topps is selling the squirrel cards. Topps is selling the short prints and the autographs. To those people who buy numerous cases looking to make money off the big hits, the base set cards are an irritant. Often, they dump them for cost on eBay.

One thing you’ll hear a lot of collector’s talk about, incessantly in some cases, is the “integrity of the base set”. The idea is that since the Squirrel card is a variation of Skip Schumaker’s regular card, it is a part of the set. All of the other short printed variations are as well. These collector’s would not care if these cards were included as inserts. They only care that the base set has been, in their opinion, compromised. It is now impossible for most collectors to complete. I don’t totally disagree, but I still want to collect and I still want to collect the flagship Topps product. Topps has gone whole hog down the gimmick path, and I don’t see any going back now. This is what base Topps is now, and we can either accept it, or we can stop collecting.

The real question is this: are gimmicks good for the hobby? The squirrel card has attracted a lot of press and along with the publicity for the Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes short print cards, has no doubt led many people to purchase cards that might not have before. The thing is, these gimmicks are short prints. This means, these guys probably didn’t get one of the chase cards. The question is, are these individuals enchanted enough by the base cards to keep collecting, or are they turned off at not getting hit? This shouldn’t be about getting people to buy a box of this year’s baseball cards. It should be about turning people into collectors and getting them to want to buy boxes every time a new series comes out. Only time will tell if Topps has succeeded.

There’s no doubt that I feel robbed of the chance to build a set in the more traditional fashion. The gimmicks do, after all, drive up the price of a box of baseball cards to a point where I just don’t see the purchase as worth it. Still, I’m going to take the glass is half full approach. I was able to pick up the 330 cards that comprise the main set for just fifteen dollars shipped on eBay. Checking eBay right now, there are numerous auctions closing in the ten dollar range for the complete set. These cards may not matter to the case breakers, but they matter to me. I’m happy to use their foolishness for my collection’s personal gain.

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Recently, I went to a Chinese restaurant, and as is the norm at most of these establishment, fortune cookies are handed out with the bill:

Don't let statistics do a number on you.

Now that's quite an odd fortune to receive inside of a slightly vanilla flavored, folded up wafer. Not only does it not pertain to some can of corn advice on my love life or career, the whole "in bed" postface game does not work with this fortune (seriously, keeping any sort of statistic involving sexual exploits is kind of creepy, unless you're Wilt Chamberlain), but it seemed ironically humorous that a baseball nerd like me is the one who ends up with a fortune like this.

Obviously, my grasp of advanced statistics and Sabermetrics isn't as sharp compared some of you other nerds, but I can't help but feel that it's not so much of advice as much as it is a reminder; that stats are great tools and fascinating numbers sometimes, but they certainly don't dictate the future. It's interesting and sometimes fun to examine and pore over the numbers, but sometimes it's interesting to simply watch and enjoy the sights and sounds of the game, too.

This time next week, every catcher and pitcher, and some hard-working position players in the NL East will be in Florida. Almost there. Welcome back to the basement.

Can't win at everything; Anibal Sanchez defeats Marlins in arbitration - Fish Stripes
In his victory over the team, Anibal Sanchez will make $8M instead of $6.9M the Marlins had offered. This also pretty much ensures that the Marlins are content to let him test the free agent waters going into 2013. Fish Stripes examines the scenario with the two other times that the Marlins let promising pitchers walk, and maybe it's something to consider with Sanchez's future health, and the fact that the Marlins have ridden him pretty hard over the last two seasons, making Verducci-theory-believers cringe.

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After Keith Law got me to flail my arms around yesterday in curfuddled disagreement, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs puts the Braves prospects universe back into order with a sane (and boring, I guess, but that's good) list.

1. Julio Teheran, RHP
2. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
3. Randall Delgado, RHP
4. Tyler Pastornicky, SS
5. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Christian Bethancourt, C
8. Edward Salcedo, SS
9. Zeke Spruill, RHP
10. Brandon Drury, 3B
11. J.R. Graham, RHP
12. Matt Lipka, OF
13. J.J. Hoover, RHP
14. Carlos Perez, LHP
15. Joe Terdoslavich, 1B
    Sleeper: Navery Moore, RHP

Good writeups on the site, and a good list. I guess for the record I should tell you what my top-25 Braves prospects look like. I put my list together in late October last year, so no AFL performances were considered (and I'm not sure I would have put too much weight on them anyway). My top-25 after the jump (so you can bash me if you'd like). Note that the official Talking Chop top-25 is an average of my rankings, CB's, and Matt's.

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A couple of weeks into the 2011 season, the Braves plucked Stefan Gartrell off waivers from the White Sox and he rewarded them by providing Gwinnett with a consistent, powerful cleanup hitter, putting up a .260 average and .834 OPS while clubbing out 28 doubles, and setting single season Gwinnett records with 25 homers and 91 RBI. He was originally drafted by the White Sox out of San Fransisco University in the 31st round of the 2006 draft and showed consistent pop at every level before busting out in AA in 2009 by hitting .285 with a .892 OPS, 20 doubles, 19 homers and 70 RBI for Birmingham.

In the last two plus years at AAA, Gartrell has posted a slash line of .259/.325/.475/.800, walking in 7.5% of his plate appearances, and striking out in 24.5% of his plate appearances. He just turned 28 years old, so he's essentially the hitter he's going to be, a slugger who's going to strike out a lot if given a chance in the Majors. He has a strong, powerful frame, standing 6'3" and weighing in at 230. Like most sluggers, Gartrell can succumb to getting fooled and taking huge whiffs, but he's shown himself capable of hitting enough at AAA to remain productive. In the outfield, he plays almost exclusively in right field, though is just as capable of playing left, but is at best an average defender. His bulk makes him slow to the ball, but he makes up for it by positioning himself well and reading the ball off the bat quickly. He does have an above average, accurate arm.

If Gartrell is going to get a chance in Atlanta, it's likely to come off the bench, and for the moment Matt Diaz is the team's right handed hitting corner outfielder off the pine. It's likely the team's last bench spot will go to a speedy outfielder who can play center field, like Jose Constanza or Luis Durango, so there's little chance Gartell is going to break camp on Atlanta's roster. Still, after a year in the organization they know his value, and he can further showcase his skills during Spring Training, so that if an injury or two arises during the year, he could provide a nice power bat off Atlanta's bench.

All the recent news about the Atlanta Braves organization wanting to expand to Wilmington, North Carolina, has left some towns a little jealous. Especially one town in Southwest Georgia:

The article does say that the Columbus City Council likely wouldn't consider building the Braves a new stadium the way that the Wilmington City Council is considering it. Of course, Golden Park is a pretty nice park for a minor league team. Go here for a great review of the park, and more pictures like the one above.

A decade ago the Braves abandoned South Georgia (anywhere below Atlanta) when they moved their Sally League team from Macon to Rome after the 2002 season. The Macon ballpark is the oldest park in the state (opened in 1929), and deserves a team of some sort. Unfortunately, the trend around baseball is away from the historic minor league stadiums to new ergonomic money-machines that try for a diluted faux-historic flavor.

If you want a Braves minor league franchise, then you better build them a new stadium. Surely someone can find a use for these gorgeous old parks. Maybe we need more Rickwood Classics around the South. Speaking of, the 2012 Rickwood Classic will feature a guest appearance by Dale Murphy. Perhaps we could get Dale to start up a series of "Classic" games throughout the old parks of the South.

Hey Choppers! It's time for us to do our part and help a fellow Talking Chop reader and Braves fan get selected for this season of MLB Fan Cave. Braves fan Ricky Mast needs your support and your vote. Go here to vote and watch his video, which is also embedded below. You can follow him on Twitter @RickyMast. Use the hashtag #PutABraveInTheCave.

Good luck Ricky!

Keith Law of ESPN has released his top-10 2012 Atlanta Braves prospects. Let me just say, there are some surprises (the numbers beside the top-4 indicate what their rank is on Law's top-100 list):

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (14)
Julio Teheran, RHP (18)
Christian Bethancourt, C (94)
Randall Delgado, RHP (98)
Andrelton Simmons, SS
Tyler Pastornicky, SS
Sean Gilmartin, LHP
Zeke Spruill, RHP
J.R. Graham, RHP
Matt Lipka, OF

So first, Arodys Vizcaino! Wait, that's not so shocking, let me back up. Julio Teheran at number 18! Does Law know something that no one else does? He ranks six pitchers ahead of Teheran (including Vizcaino), and while I could see a case for a couple of them, I still don't get it. Law ranked Teheran sixth in his 2011 top-100, but while the writeup on him this year says "he's farther away than he appeared to be a year ago," that still doesn't explain dropping him that much in the rankings. It seems to me that Law is viewing Teheran with a glass half empty eye and viewing other guys with similar development paths as glass half full prospects.

He ranks Bethancourt very aggressively, and ahead of Delagdo, but that's likely more about how much he's soured on Delgado than anything else. Here is some of what he says about Delgado in his scouting report, which also gives us some insight into his thoughts about Teheran and Vizcaino (my emphasis):

One thing that became clear during the 2011 season about Atlanta's troika of top pitching prospects is that Delgado, while a strong prospect in his own right, didn't belong in the same discussion as Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino. He didn't possess Teheran's stuff and projection, or Vizcaino's control and plus breaking ball. While those two arms progressed last year, Delgado remains as he was, with a solid-average fastball that will touch 96 mph and an above-average changeup that won't miss enough bats on its own, especially without another pitch to move away from right-handed hitters and keep them honest.

He is still projectable with a loose arm, but the upside of his two system-mates hasn't rubbed off on him. There's a good enough chance that Delgado ends up in the bullpen because of the lack of a third pitch to drop him a level on these rankings, as he's more like a No. 3 or a No. 4 in a rotation or a setup man if he goes to the pen.

Look at how he sees not only Delgado against the other two guys, but at how he describes Teheran versus Vizcaino. Teheran is "stuff and projection," a work in progress, while Vizcaino is "control and plus breaking ball," without any qualifiers about "projection." In Vizcaino's scouting report, Law says "he's a three-pitch starter who has a history of plus control, and just needs time and health to become a No. 1 or No. 2 starter."

I read all that (or maybe I'm reading into all that) as Law just likes Vizcaino better than Teheran from a stuff perspective, even though both have question marks, so he's doing a bit of picking favorites. All of that is perfectly okay in any kind of prospect analysis, but we can respectfully disagree (and I do). This was reflected in last year's rankings, when Law had Freddie Freeman at number-43, and didn't even rank Craig Kimbrel. Those two guys, by the way, finished first and second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. (Maybe that's a good sign for Teheran and Delgado.)

No Edward Salcedo on this list either, and with his tools I would have expected to see him. Especially ahead of Lipka, a prospect that Salcedo out-performed at the same level.

Here is a tweet from FoxSports Ken Rosenthal about Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Tommy Hanson:

Okay Rosenthal, now we need an entire article on this so we can get even more excited. Though this tweet was pretty concise with its information.

Tommy Caveman for 2012 Cy Young!