Talking Chop

It seems like 90% of the trade rumors we hear about the Atlanta Braves are 100% distasteful to Braves fans, and are oddly biased in favor of the other team -- something that is historically rare in recent Braves trades. Perhaps that's why there hasn't actually been a trade that has happened from any of these rumors.

The latest and most often repeated rumor this off-season comes back to the surface, this time with the note that interest has in fact cooled. Here is Colorado Rockies beat writer Troy Renck:

While outfielder Seth Smith remains a coveted commodity, the Atlanta Braves​' interest has cooled, according to a major league source with the direct knowledge of the talks.

The Braves are unwilling to move infielder Martin Prado​, the Rockies' desired target, without an accompanying move to add infield depth.

Three things there. First, I'm glad these talks have cooled. Second, I'm glad that the Braves were holding firm by asking for multiple pieces in exchange for Smith. Third, notice how Prado is said to be infield depth for the Braves. That tells me the Braves still view him has an important backup for Chipper Jones at third base -- as they should.

Renck also says this about the other most often discussed Braves trade chip:

Always a longshot to land Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens​, Colorado is not pursuing the right-hander, and was never a serious suitor. With six weeks remaining until spring training, the Rockies are currently focusing on minor trades while continuing to canvas for rotation help.

They are really fixated on Prado. Hopefully the Braves would make them pay big time if Colorado were to actually acquire him. And that could have been what submarined the talks. According to Ken Rosenthal, it seems like the Braves were trying to get quite a bit from the Rockies:

Talks with the Braves cooled when the teams could not agree on the pitching prospect that the Rockies would include with Smith to get Martin Prado, sources say.

All off-season we've been hearing that it was one of the center field prospects on the Rockies that the Braves were trying to acquire along with Smith, but to learn that it might have been a pitching prospect is very intriguing. This brings the Braves thinking into light, and gives us an idea of how they are approaching trades. They used to only trade away pitching prospects, but with Jurrjens and Arodys Vizcaino acquired in the last few years, the Braves seem to be trying to use trades to acquire top-end pitching talent.

At this point if a trade is to happen I've got to think that it's going to happen with a team that hasn't been mentioned in any rumors yet. It seems like the Rockies and Orioles trade options have been discussed and shot down so many times that the media has proven there's no match there. Maybe that's just me hoping the Braves don't trade with either of those teams.

UPDATE:

Good point about the pitching prospect from David O'Brien:

If this is the case, if the Braves’ focus with Colorado had indeed shifted from center-field prospect to pitching prospect in package with Smith, then to me that’s an indication Atlanta was and probably still is trying to get center fielder Adam Jones from Baltimore, and would use any pitching prospect it received from Colorado either to replace the one that the Braves might lose in a deal for Jones, or actually use that pitching prospect from the Rockies as part of a package Atlanta would send to Baltimore for Jones because the Braves wouldn’t agree to part with one of their own pitching prospects that the O’s covet.

The problem is that I don't want any of those rumors to come true.

Okay, I'm guilty of talking about it too, but whatevs, people keep bringing it up. It's that same old Atlanta Braves trade with the Baltimore Orioles for Adam Jones. Ken Rosenthal puts the idea to bed once again:

It makes NO SENSE for the Braves either, as has been repeatedly stated by sane people. Talks fluid though, so expect more rumors, Ugh! I want a new and exciting rumor that doesn't suck for the Braves, or an actual trade, which again, doesn't suck.

Good to see Frank Wren holding firm on not trading any more young pitching though. Really good to see.

It wouldn't be the first official working day of the new year without unsubstantiated rumors of trades. Thus I bring you the latest incarnation of the Atlanta Braves trying to trade for Baltimore Orioles outfielder Adam Jones:

We saw this a lot last year, with wild ideas of Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens AND one of our top pitching prospects for just Jones. That kind of rumor was shot down by the Braves beat writers for the lame duck that it was. Yet still, the rumor kept coming up every couple of weeks, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised that it has surfaced again.

I've never heard of this Scott Swaim character, and it seems that Google hasn't really heard of him either, and he only has like 900 twitter followers. But then what happens is that someone like a real journalist, this Roch Kubatko who writes for MASN (and has an aptly douchey named blog "School of Roch"), picks up that tweet and puts it in his column, and he has like 5,000 twitter followers, so it's starting to get some traction. Then Buster Olney links to Roch's column saying that something is happening, and he has like 350,000 twitter followers. At the same time, Ken Rosenthal (he of the 171,000 twitter followers variety) puts up a column about the Orioles searching hard for starting pitching, and everyone in Braves Country ® thinks that lends credibility to the earlier rumor about interest in Jurrjens ... and here we are. And this rumor will get repeated over and over. Any truth to it? Maybe. That Swaim guy probably knows.

I should have called this post "Anatomy of a completely bull$hit trade rumor."

MLB.com's Hot Stove crew talks about the Atlanta Braves efforts to trade starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens, what their reasons for trading him might be, and what kind of market might exist for him out there.

All off-season we've said that the young kids are ready to take the reins of a Major League rotation spot. Despite injury concerns with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson to start the season, the Braves seem willing to deal Jurrjens (if you believe all the rumors). Though the talking heads in the video are right when they say that Jurrjens' trade value is greatly diminished right now.

I've been conflicted about this all off-season. I began the off-season by pointing out that Jurrjens was the most likely pitcher to be traded due to his increasing salaries through arbitration. As we learned more about the uncertainty of the TH-es in the rotation the more I felt it was probably best to hold onto JJ until everyone was mostly healthy. Then there was that whole "we want a Greinke-like return" thing, then we realized that ain't happening.

Where I am right now is kind of in the hold-on-to-him camp. If the team trades him, I want to see them get maximum value, and that might be more achievable by proving he is fully healthy with a strong spring training. That would also help the Braves cover for all the other health question marks, and help them determine if the kinds are ready to step in.

Actually, opening the season with a few starts from Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, and Randall Delgado -- two of them filling in for the still rehabbing Hanson and Hudson -- might be a good way to measure which one of them is ready to take a rotation spot (or which two of them are ready, meaning the Braves would then be free to trade Jurrjens). Early season trades are pretty rare, so it may be closer to mid-year before Atlanta could free up a spot in the rotation if Jurrjens is not moved in spring training.

There are scenarios aplenty. I guess right now I'd kind of like to see the Braves hold on to him, but it should be clear by now that the Braves won't be holding on to Jurrjens for long. I'd say there's a 95% chance that Jurrjens is traded at some point in 2012. Younger, cheaper, better options exist in the Braves system.

UPDATE 12:30pm:

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports posted an article regarding Jurrjens, and mentions a couple of point (most of which we already knew):

Jair Jurrjens has drawn some interest from the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rockies, Tigers, Rangers and others. However, while Jurrjens is a terrific young starter, he appears to be behind Oakland's Gio Gonzalez on the pecking order of most teams, possibly because of potential concerns about the knee injury that hampered him at the end of last year.

Figures that Gio would be ahead of JJ on teams' wish lists.

The Braves also have suggested that they will not trade Jurrjens within their division, thereby eliminating the active Marlins as a potential suitor.

Der. I think the Braves really want to trade him out of the league.

The Braves say they are only considering trading Jurrjens because they have a wealth of starting pitchers, and a need for improving their offense. Jurrjens' arbitration number is expected to be very high, as well, and Atlanta has been limited financially this winter.

Both mentioned above by me.

One other issue with the Braves is that their history of trading starting pitchers is so good that some others teams are leery about trading with them. It seems they know just went to deal pitchers, right at the height of their value.

They've gotten lucky, but they've also never traded a pitcher this young with Jurrjens' kind of track record (HoRam is not a comp here).

I've been operating on the assumption that the Braves were holding out for good value this off-season, not looking to trade tons of value for ... Jeff Francoeur part deux. A Baltimore-Sun beat writer for the Orioles passes along this trade proposal that was apparently turned down by Baltimore:

Adam Jones is the team’s best trade chip. But unless the Orioles get a front-line pitcher in return, I don’t see them dealing Jones. The Atlanta Braves made a run this month, offering second baseman-outfielder Martin Prado, starter Jair Jurrjens and, eventually, a pitching prospect, and the Orioles didn’t bite. So that tells you just how much they value their center fielder.

Thank goodness they value Adam Jones that much! What the heck were the Braves thinking offering that much (if indeed this report is accurate)?

Jeff Francoeur career OPS = .746
Adam Jones career OPS = .756

This is not the droid you are looking for ... not even close. I'm just beside myself that the Braves would consider trading both Prado and Jurrjens AND a pitching prospect for Jones. He's decent, but he's not that good.

And oh by the way, Martin Prado career OPS = .775 (and he can play third base where the Braves have a fragile 40-year ol... oh I give up). I really hope the Braves weren't actually offering this package. And if they were, Baltimore was stupid to turn it down.

UPDATE 3:15pm

Coming in off the ledge, we get this rumor shoot-down from Mark Bowman:

The Braves expressed interest in Adam Jones. But they did not offer Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens to the Orioles in exchange for the outfielder. [...]

The source said the Braves were told Jones was unavailable when they asked about him a couple weeks ago. The Orioles later called the Braves to see if they would trade Prado, Jurrjens and two other “premium guys” in exchange for Jones.

The Braves said they were not interested and the two clubs have not had any recent discussions about these players.

That sounds more logical. MUCH more logical. I figured this was the case, but in the fog of this morning and the senselessness of the reported offer my exasperation overcame me. The Orioles are proving why they're a last place club. They should have traded Jones at this year's trade deadline when teams were lining up to give up good prospects for outfielders.

Continuing along this weird off-season path of inaction for the Atlanta Braves, DOB has an option (dare I say a rumor) for the outfield:

However, there's a better chance the Braves would settle for a reasonably priced player with a good track record and perhaps a connection to them or their manager - someone like Cody Ross. The Cardinals and a couple of other teams are pursuing Ross, but I have it on good authority that Ross, all things being equal, would prefer to a reunion in Atlanta with his former Marlins manager (Fredi Gonzalez) and teammate (Dan Uggla).

I can't say I hate the idea. Ross is decent, not great; he has some power and gets on base at a decent rate, though his production fluctuates wildly from season to season. Of course I really don't know why the Braves would want Ross when they already have Matt Diaz, who is like a poor-man's Cody Ross.

DOB does add to the above quote by saying that "if the Braves wanted Ross badly enough they’d have already signed him." That's not entirely true, since it has been rumored that Ross is seeking a three-year deal. Seeing as how he made $6.3 million last year, I seriously doubt the Braves would be willing to give Ross anywhere near that kind of money for one year, let alone three. We're talking about a guy that just about any team could have claimed off waivers two years ago, and it's not like he's gotten any better since then -- he's the same player, putting up the same numbers.

If the Braves are interested in Ross, they are likely waiting until his price comes down into the Diaz range -- $2 to $3 million a year. But that's a big "if" they are interested. I'm guessing the Braves are free agent bargain hunting, saving their money for something ... something?

Seriously, this trade just will not go away. The longest running off-season rumor between the Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies that would primarily involve Martin Prado and Seth Smith is apparently still going strong. MLB.com Rockies beat writer Thomas Harding rumors us this:

The Rockies could use one more bat, specifically at second base. The Braves need a left fielder. None of this has changed since the offseason began and reports surfaced of the possibility of the Rockies sending left-handed hitting outfielder Seth Smith to Atlanta for right-handed hitting infielder Martin Prado. Dialogue between the teams continued through last week, and word Monday was the possibility of a trade remains alive.

I might actually hold my breath until Mark Bowman or David O'Brien shoot this rumor down, which I image will happen in three, two ...

But really, I think we've beat the reasons to death as to why Smith would not be a good fit for the Braves; he's a lefty with a bad platoon split against left-handers (not something the Braves need more of), and the production that is there is aided by the mile highness of his home stadium.

Rumor, rumor, go away.

Here is a snippit of a rumor from Ken Rosenthal regarding the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles:

[...] the Orioles and Braves have discussed a deal that included both Jurrjens and Prado, sources say.

Just the other day I was just telling the SB Nation Orioles blogger at Camden Chat that I didn't think the Braves and O's matched up well in a trade. I figured that Baltimore would want players who would be around longer than two years before they hit free agency. And I didn't see any players (or prospects) on the O's that the Braves would trade Jair Jurrjens or Martin Prado for, save for maybe Adam Jones, but I thought him to be off-limits.

The rumor does simply say that the teams have discussed a deal, and we don't know how far those discussions went. This could have been one of the many discussions about players that the Braves had with clubs at the Winter Meetings last week. I'd take that Adam Jones fella, though.

UPDATE (1pm):

This rumor was shot down fairly quickly by Jon Heyman:

Jim Bowden has an even worser (possibly worserest) idea at ESPN Insider. Here is what he proposed (he was just spit-ballin ideas):

Trade 3. Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles
Braves acquire: OF Adam Jones, 3B Josh Bell
Orioles acquire: RHP Jair Jurrjens, 3B/OF Martin Prado

In this four-player trade idea the Braves get a much-needed right-handed bat and above-average defender in Jones to help balance out the lineup and solidify their outfield. This could mean moving Michael Bourn to left and allowing Jones to play center. Bell would give the Braves depth at third base and an option for the future since Chipper Jones can't play forever. The Orioles would immediately improve their starting rotation with the 25-year-old Jurrjens, who went 13-6 last year with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.22. Prado would be an upgrade at third base for the Orioles in the short term or give them an option at second base if Brian Roberts continues to spend time on the disabled list.

I guess that's why he's no longer a General Manager. That trade would be horrible for the Braves. Twitter was blowing up with all the reasons Adam Jones isn't that great, and all of the ways he's just like Jeff Francoeur. The above trade, and possibly any trade for Adam Jones, would not be an upgrade over what the Braves already have on their team. Also, the O's radically overvalue Adam Jones.

I'm kind of glad we're moving on from this rumor.