Recently, I went to a Chinese restaurant, and as is the norm at most of these establishment, fortune cookies are handed out with the bill:
Don't let statistics do a number on you.
Now that's quite an odd fortune to receive inside of a slightly vanilla flavored, folded up wafer. Not only does it not pertain to some can of corn advice on my love life or career, the whole "in bed" postface game does not work with this fortune (seriously, keeping any sort of statistic involving sexual exploits is kind of creepy, unless you're Wilt Chamberlain), but it seemed ironically humorous that a baseball nerd like me is the one who ends up with a fortune like this.
Obviously, my grasp of advanced statistics and Sabermetrics isn't as sharp compared some of you other nerds, but I can't help but feel that it's not so much of advice as much as it is a reminder; that stats are great tools and fascinating numbers sometimes, but they certainly don't dictate the future. It's interesting and sometimes fun to examine and pore over the numbers, but sometimes it's interesting to simply watch and enjoy the sights and sounds of the game, too.
This time next week, every catcher and pitcher, and some hard-working position players in the NL East will be in Florida. Almost there. Welcome back to the basement.
Can't win at everything; Anibal Sanchez defeats Marlins in arbitration - Fish Stripes
In his victory over the team, Anibal Sanchez will make $8M instead of $6.9M the Marlins had offered. This also pretty much ensures that the Marlins are content to let him test the free agent waters going into 2013. Fish Stripes examines the scenario with the two other times that the Marlins let promising pitchers walk, and maybe it's something to consider with Sanchez's future health, and the fact that the Marlins have ridden him pretty hard over the last two seasons, making Verducci-theory-believers cringe.
You know what really stinks? Virtual waiting rooms. The plus side is that I've secured tickets for a trip out west to see games at both San Francisco and Oakland, but the process was very much like pulling teeth. It's about that time of the year in which individual teams are slowly opening up the ticket windows for individual game tickets, and for a traveler like me, these dates are crucial when it comes to hoping to see games in other cities. Apparently, the first visit by the Pujols-led Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange county, California is somewhat of a draw in Oakland, and I guess San Francisco is such a draw now, that seats that typically cost $1-6 in Atlanta have literally rung me up $57, and that was the best available.
But anyway, I am very relieved to have secured tickets to the games I had tentatively planned on going. So now, there's no turning back. This year, I will knock both San Francisco and Oakland off of my parks list, which makes numbers #22 and 23. That is, until Oakland moves to San Jose, and I'll be forced to go back out there again in the future, so here's hoping the Bay Area treats me well.
Welcome back to the basement.
Edwin Jackson signs one-year deal with Nationals - Nats Insider
Well now, things have gotten even more interesting in D.C. Unable to get a multi-year deal, Jackson gets on board with the Nats for an estimated range of $8-12M for the one year, to re-establish value, and try again next year. With this, a rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Wang and Jackson means that the incumbent jam for fifth starter is now a story. Ross Detweiler no longer has any more options left, and isn't arb-eligible until 2013. Either he makes the roster as a reliever in an already-crowded bullpen, or the cost-controlled lefty has to be traded. And then there's John Lannan, who is an arb-2 in 2012 - technically he still has two minor league options left, but then there's a risk of a $5M guy sitting in AAA, or the Nationals can sell low on him and trade a fairly durable, moderately talented innings-eater to someone where he could bite the Nats later.
But anyway, with little for me to really talk about, I'll share a different interest, which is still somewhat related to baseball. I'm somewhat of a literary nerd, who likes to read books from time to time, and every now and then, a sports book will catch my fancy. One of the best books I read in 2011 was Dan Barry's The Bottom of the 33rd, which is the story of a 1981 minor league game between the Rochester Red Wings and the Pawtucket Red Sox, which holds to distinction of being the longest game ever played in the entire history of baseball.
It's a beautiful narration of all of the elements within the game as well as those the game touched on a fateful April night. From the fans in the stands, the clubhouse attendants that prepared food for the players, the radio announcers, the AAAA mainstays, umpires that read and re-read the rulebook a little too closely, to the now Hall of Famers in Cal Ripken, Jr. and Wade Boggs; it's an emotional cruise through what seemed like an ordinary baseball game turned into a historic occasion.
There comes a point in every baseball game that goes into extra innings, where everyone kind of feels a sense of dread at the idea; it's obviously different if the circumstances were going into extras as the result of coming from behind, but definitely a lot worse when it involves your team blowing a lead. But the 10th and 11th innings are always a feeling of dread and anxiety whenever the opposition gets a base runner or an extra-base hit. By the 13th inning, sometimes we lose care of who wins and loses, as long as we can just simply get out of there. By the time the 15th inning ends, this is where not only do I not care who wins or loses, at this point, I'm already balls in, so may as well cheer for the fruitless attempt to hit 34 innings.
Imagine if Jerry Meals didn't decide he had enough, and actually called Julio Lugo out at home in that crazy night against the Pirates last year? Although it would probably never happen again, it was still a beautiful night in its own right; a major league stadium still operating with less than a thousand people left. Cups Guy and Pirates Girl becoming internet famous in the span of EST AM hours. And a parade of relief pitchers, most notably Cristhian Martinez and Daniel McCutchen, unrelenting, pitching well above expectations, not wanting to be the guy that let their team down, holding Major League lineups scoreless for a combined 11.2 innings. But even throughout all of that, that game was still 14 innings away from just tying the record of 33 innings. Madness.
So while we've still got time in the off season, go out and give The Bottom of the 33rd a whirl. It may not be as thought-provoking and intellectually satiating as a Moneyball or The Extra 2%, but it's a beautiful narration in its own right, and a good reminder of what craziness this game we all love is capable of producing at the drop of a hat.
Welcome back to the basement.
The Miami Marlins are the worst thing ever - SBNation
Now I like Al Yellon; he's always been cordial and polite to me whenever I visit Bleed Cubbie Blue, and among the Baseball Nation rotation, I favor his pieces often, but I'll be the first to admit that I find this a little uncharacteristic and unexpected. Obviously as fans of a bunch of kids' games that adults play for, for a lot of money, we're all subject to irrational prejudice from time to time, but I kind of feel that a lot of these reasons are kind of a stretch. I will admit that I, like many am not fond of the logo either, but this is the kind of stuff I do for a living, and I'm actually more curious to see what kind of creative sell tactics were employed when the logo was presented in a conceptual stage.
By the time you read this, I could very well be waking up with a very nasty hangover, as I am in Las Vegas this weekend. Sadly, there are no MLB odds available at this time of year, so I have no chance at getting my opportunity to be like this Cardinals fan who probably pocketed somewhere close to $200K in winnings for his Hail Mary bets that the Cardinals would win the NLCS as well as the World Series, a month before the regular season even ended. Regardless if there were baseball odds to bet on, it really wouldn't matter; when it comes to sports, me betting on anything is like the kiss of death.
I actually remember the last time I made a Vegas bet: it was on game 5 of the 2008 ALCS. I knew Scott Kazmir was a legitimate Red Sox destroyer of worlds, so I made a bet on the straight up game, that Tampa Bay would beat Boston. I couldn't help but notice that when I was placing a bet, that there was an option for "official game," meaning betting on the score after five innings. The payout was a little bit better on the full game, so I decided to go with that. Going into the bottom of the 7th, things felt great - I was nicely buzzed and the Rays were up 7-0 on the Red Sox.
And then the (crap) hit the fan epically, and a combination of Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler and J.P. Howell choked up eight runs, and the Red Sox won the game, and I lost my bet. If only I had bet on the official game, I'd have walked away with money, instead of a worthless bet ticket. No more sports betting.
Anyway, that means this was written up a night early, and if anything happened on Friday or Saturday morning, it's not mentioned. Welcome back to the basement.
Gio Gonzalez signs four-year extension with Nationals - Nationals Journal
Despite not having thrown a single pitch yet, the Nationals went on to secure the services of Gio Gonzalez for the next four years. The base salary is roughly $42M, but there are two options which could bump the deal to a total of six years and almost $65M.
So I was looking at the Braves Caravan destination list, and it occurred to me that as of right now, there's not actually any stops remotely actually in Atlanta. I mean, Atlanta gets a lot of flack for being unsupportive and fairweathered, but come on now. The closest stop remotely close to Atlanta would be Snellville, but even that's still 25 miles outside of the city. Cumming and McDonough, with the latter being Jason Heyward's childhood home, are both 30+ miles out.
They're all Academy Sports + Outdoors, and two Taco Macs; there are no Academy Sports + Outdoors within Atlanta city limits, but there are quite a few Taco Macs in town, where's the love?
This time of year, I take great pleasure in filling out a nice big calendar. I fill in all the Braves' home games, and then I eventually comb through the calendars of both Gwinnett and Rome's schedules to look for any appealing weekends where either is home while Atlanta is on the road. Eventually, I get to the schedules of the other MLB teams I'm interested in seeing in 2012 (SFG, OAK, CLE, DET, BAL), and start adding in potential weekends to travel to go see other ballparks.
Last but not least, I expand my horizons a little bit to see if there's anything intriguing, and I did find one thing kind of immediately: April 22, the M-Braves head to Birmingham to play the Barons, a Sunday afternoon game. I haven't visited Birmingham in ages, but if there's ever a good reason to go there, seeing the Double-A (oddly, a rarity) squad seems like it. I know there are a bunch of you nerds who live out in Alabama, it might be a pleasant afternoon to conglomerate.
Welcome back to the basement.
Nationals still apparently pursuing Prince Fielder, meet with Scott Boras again - Nationals Journal
Sure, the Nationals are interested in Fielder, but I still think he's going to end up on the Rangers. Here's my rationale: Darvish or no Darvish, the Rangers have the financial flexibility to acquire both players; they have the means (television deal) to up payroll a little bit, or they wouldn't have to if they follow in the practice pretty much ever free-agent contract goes by, which is having a fairly low-amount first year or two, before it escalates into gigantic numbers on the back end. The Rangers are legitimate contenders whether or not Darvish and/or Fielder is acquired (nullifying Dodgers/Mariners). Being in the AL, Fielder could DH when he no longer can field period. Finally, the Rangers need Fielder more than the Nationals do; Mitch Moreland didn't actually set the world on fire, and Adam LaRoche is more than a capable everyday first baseman.
Happy New Years, Braves Country! Here's to hoping for a 2012 of excellent baseball, beautiful baseball weather, exciting baseball travels, delicious baseball park foods, and MOAR baseball winz.
Now I'm going to go straight from happy post-holiday greeting, to hopping up on my soapbox here. Now most of us are very well aware of the vastly changing landscape of the prestigious National League East division. The Marlins have spared absolutely no expense at going from the team that once had a combined payroll less than Chan-Ho Park's salary to suddenly signing Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buerhle to large, multi-million dollar contracts, to play in their mockery of a new baseball park. The Nationals acquired a few useful veterans here and there, and then went for the jugular, trading for Gio Gonzalez who slots into a rotation, if healthy and not inhibited by kid gloves too much, is almost on the cusp of excellence. The Phillies haven't really done that much, but being the Phillies, until proven otherwise, will continue to win on a combination of their excellent, existing starting pitching, reputation, intimidation and anomalous contributions from guys like Wilson Valdez and John Mayberry, Jr., no matter which key players are injured. And even the Mets, while practically in full rebuild-mode, have made a few acquisitions, to shake up the look of their 40-man roster.
All while the Braves, as it's popularly believed, "have done nothing." That's not true at all. Eric Hinske had his option picked up. And they unloaded Derek Lowe. And several other guys, via non-tender. But they've kind of been killing it on the waiver wire!
An annoying trend I'm seeing here a lot lately are people popping up out of nowhere to do nothing but complain and whine about all of the nothing that the Braves have done this off-season, more so, with each subsequent move that a division rival makes. First of all, it's in the past now, no amount of whining about it is going to suddenly make the Houston Astros look at the Braves and go "aww, you guys want Jed Lowrie? Fine, you can have him for Mauro Gomez and the last guy on Gwinnett's bench, no matter who it is!" Carlos Beltran isn't legally allowed to dissolve his contract with the Cardinals and sign a team-friendly one with the Braves instead.
But you know what, I can understand the griping; what I can't really understand are the contingent of people who feel that the Braves are required to make moves right now in order to have a modicum of hope for 2012. I would have loved to have seen the Braves manage to find ways to get guys like Carlos Beltran, or trade for Jed Lowrie. Or snag a Cody Ross, or even bring back Andruw Jones, or Rafael Furcal. But pretty much all those names, along with many other popularly suggested players, are off the board now. So then what? Go down the ladder and pursue their less-talented counterparts, but offer the same money/players for them? If these mythical team-improving moves for the sake of countering others' moves were made, then the Braves would sign Johnny Damon, trade Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado for Seth Smith and not Tim Wheeler, signed a soon-to-be-45-year-old Omar Vizquel, and traded Julio Teheran for Scott Westbrook straight up.
I play trivia every week with a group of friends. One night, my team was doing well, and we were in third place going into the final question, where you could bet zero to 15 points. The question ended up being something really obscure like "what was Princess Leia's cell block number." Obviously, we had no idea what the answer was, so instead, we wrote down a dirty remark about the host's mother and bet zero points, knowing fully well that anyone behind us who got it right could very well pass us, but anyone in front of it who got it wrong and wagered anything substantial, would fall beneath us. The answer to the question was "cell block 1138 in detention block AA-23." Nobody in the bar got it right. First and second place wagered numbers that would have prevented any correct chasers from surpassing them, but by getting the question wrong, those points were deducted from their totals. By making no move at all, my team won first place.
Seldom is making a move for the sole sake of making a move the right decision. The 2012 Braves certainly have some weaknesses, but they don't have any genuine holes. People act as if Tyler Pastornicky isn't a real human being let alone a shortstop, and that Martin Prado patrols the outfield via Professor X hoverchair instead of legs. Until proven otherwise, the Nationals and Marlins both realize they have to overtake Atlanta, before getting a crack at Philadelphia.
But hey, Orlando Cabrera appears to be available, and since the team NEEDS a short stop, why not?? Between him and Eric Hinske, there's two insta-playoff streaks that need to be rekindled.
The current theme is "ugly hats." What's that you say? The Marlins hat is actually one of their in-game hats? Well I'll be. Que sera, sera. Welcome back to the basement.
Marlins acquire Carlos Zambrano from Cubs for Chris Volstad - Fish Stripes
The Cubs are essentially paying $15.5M to get rid of Big-Z. Here's the thing though, although it's well documented how Carlos Zambrano has not had much success against Atlanta, which is good for us Braves fans, the fact of the matter is that the Braves aren't the only team he'll be facing. Even if Zambrano were to go 0-5 against the Braves this year, if the Marlins were to go 18-7 in all of Zambrano's other starts, then he's still doing his job pretty well. And hell, simply getting rid of Chris Volstad has to make the Marlins better by like 2-3 wins.
As the year 2011 winds down to a close, I'd just like to take this opportunity to say thank you to all Talking Chop readers. Thanks for your readership, thanks for your words, knowledge and insights and opinions we may or may not always agree on. Your one-time visits, or your frequent stopping by. The site's not fun without readers to share it with, and not so great without a community that's so willing to share back.
The Braves might not have fulfilled destiny in 2011, but it was still a good, exciting season regardless. Here's to hoping for better fortune, more excitement, and more good baseball in 2012, and such sentiment goes out to each and everyone one of you.
Welcome back to the basement.
Mets really don't want R.A. Dickey to do charity mountain climb - Wall Street Journal
I can see this from both sides. MLB and the Mets don't want their most reliable pitcher scaling Mt. Kilimanjaro, because it's really really dangerous, and if he gets hurt, the Mets are boned. They're threatening to void the last year of his deal if he does it and gets hurt, which I can understand from the business standpoint. However, the purpose of the climb is to raise awareness of the underage human sex trafficking in India, which is a rampant problem. Somehow, I'm betting that Dickey does it anyway, and doesn't get hurt, and this all becomes a moot point in the end.
Firstly, I'd like to wish everyone a Season's Greetings, Happy Holidays, or whatever suits your fancy that won't be twisted and misconstrued to be considered offensive. I am looking forward to nothing more than enjoying sleeping in, in my own bed this holiday weekend, and not worrying at all about the rigors of any inconvenient, awkward traveling.
Such sentiment is pretty much the same as it pertains to the news around baseball, namely the beast of the National League East division. The Nationals and Phillies win this week, with the Phillies re-signing Jimmy Rollins' and the Nationals getting their hands on Gio Gonzalez.
But anyway, have safe and happy holidays, I hope those of you celebrating occasions where gifts are exchanged, I hope you get what you wanted. Otherwise, to everyone else, have safe and happy weekends, and then we're a week closer to the end of the year. Welcome back to the basement.
Nationals acquire LHP Gio Gonzalez from Oakland A's for four minor leaguers - Nats Insider
Three pitchers, and a catcher. RHP Tom Milone, LHPs A.J. Cole and Brad Peacock, along with top catching prospect, Derek Norris. Not going to lie, I kinda winced. I still would have tried to unload Jesus Flores over Norris seeing as how the A's got three pitching prospects out of it, but whatever. At first blush, I want to ring the Teixeira bell, but the whole thing becomes a moot point if the Nationals rotation of Strasburg-Zimmermann-Gio-Wang-Lannan stays healthy and keeps making starts, and more or less negates the need for any of these minor league arms.
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