This pains me because I love Brandon Beachy. But his peripherals look awful.
BABIP: .219
xFIP: 4.01
HR/FB: 1.9%
K/9: 6.60 down from 10.74 last year
vFA: 90.9 down from 92.0 last year.
vSL: 80.8 down from 82.8 last year
These are all terrible signs, and I can't find one thing in his peripherals that encourage me. Seems like he is due a pretty major regression to the mean.
I was recently given the opportunity to ask one question, of one of my all time favorite athletes John Smoltz, a 90s Brave of all teams, (side note they are reason I love sports)... I was stuck, do I ask about the 95 series? The infamous g7 vs. Jack Morris? No, I was two and don’t remember that... The 99 walk off walk? (side note #1 all time sports memory) no smoltzy was hurt that year.... I floated it to my family (all braves fans by way of the Richmond braves aaa) my brother wanted to know who was juicing on the infamous 02 "steroid braves" (i.e. Javy Lopez hit 47 hr that year) no I don’t want memories tainted plus I was at a Javy Lopez walk off grand slam my first and only game at the Tedd.... My dad wanted to know if Mr. Smoltzy thought Sid was safe or not... Then I asked my mom and she casually had the perfect question.... What could Bobby Cox possibly be saying to umpires that would get him tossed almost within 10 seconds of the argument.... He’s the all time leader in ejections yet compared to legendary arguing managers antics i.e. Larry Bowa Lou Pinella his arguments lasted all of five seconds.... in short- What could Bobby Cox possibly be saying to get ejected so quickly so often. Does he start the argument with "Now your mother was a…." or "so your sister and I" what could he say that gets him so instantaneously tossed compared to other managers that had to kick dirt and spit in faces.
It's that time of year again! The draft is fast approaching. Top 100 lists are out and mock drafts are beginning to trickle in. Let's take a look at what might be in store for Atlanta at #21 overall.
When looking at the Braves' options, you have to first look at their MO in past drafts, especially the past few under Tony DeMacio. The team has publicly vocalized a preference for two types of talent: LHP and speed in position players. This approach has been evident over the past two years with DeMacio at the helm, with the speedster Matt Lipka in '10 and Sean Gilmartin in '11. The desire for LHP at the top of the draft predates the current scouting director by two years, with Brett DeVall in '08 and Mike Minor in '09.
Looking at Atlanta's draft patterns over the past several years, let's note some trends. First, Atlanta hasn't used a first round or sandwich round pick on a college position player in over ten years. Second, its been five years since a 1st/comp round pick was used on a HS RHP. This helps narrow the demographic of probable targets down quite a bit. Essentially, I think Atlanta will zero in on college pitching and HS position players, with an outside chance at a HS LHP. One more thing to note: as always, signability will play a role in the decision. This could eliminate certain HS players (i.e. Corey Seager, Joey Gallo). Let's dive into the candidates.
Pitching:
1.Brian Johnson: College LHP with a good frame who should be ML ready fairly quickly, possibly within 12 months of draft day. Does this profile sound familiar to anyone? In my mind, Johnson is the prototypical Atlanta pick. He has a great pitcher's frame and should be a durable, mid rotation innings eater. In a down year, he could be great value at 21.
2.Pierce Johnson: College RHP who was linked to Atlanta and had a lot of helium before stumbling upon the injury bug with a forearm strain. Unfortunately, this isn't an isolated incident and it's risky to take on a pitcher who struggles to stay on the field. He probably offers more upside than Johnson, but the additional risk will likely rule him out from being a Brave.
3.Chris Stratton: College RHP with a plus breaking ball. Stratton is another fast riser. He has solid upside, but is a bit old for a college draftee and will need to move quickly. The one main concern is that he tends to pitch backwards and will likely need to work on his approach in pro ball. Should he make it to Atlanta, I have a feeling they would jump all over him. Unfortunately, there is a string of teams from 13-16 (CWS-CIN-CLE-WAS) that are known to like college pitching, and it's hard to see him slipping past all four of those teams.
4.Andrew Heaney: College LHP with a great mix of above average velocity and command that help mitigate his average off speed pitches. While he stands 6'2'', his frame doesn't scream durability. He is clearly the best college LHP in the draft and is a mid-first round talent that could go even higher to a team looking to cut a deal. Like Stratton, Atlanta would likely love to get him but it's hard to imagine him coming out of the 13-16 college pitching buzz-saw unselected.
5.Matt Smoral: HS LHP. Curiously, KLaw mentioned that Atlanta has shown interest in Smoral. He was getting top ten buzz before a stress fracture ended his season in early April, and it is unlikely he will pitch before the signing deadline. Teams will essentially be forced to make a decision on Smoral based on months old scouting reports. While the upside of a 6'7'' LHP is tantalizing, he has already struggled with injuries and that may be a trend that continues going forward. With an above average fastball and a plus breaking ball, Smoral is worth a long look at 21.It has yet to be seen how signability will play out, because he does have a scholarship at UNC. However, the slot money at Atlanta's position could be enough to lure him away. Still, I'd peg the chances of Smoral being Atlanta's choice as "highly unlikely."
Position Players:
1.D.J. Davis: Fast barely begins to describe this HS CF. He would certainly go a long way towards Atlanta's goal of adding speed to the organization. While he does have reasonable polish, there seems to be question over how good of a defender in center he could be, or even if he can stick in center. Signability is not really a factor here because he is slated for a community college. The risk is high, but the upside and profile might push him into Atlanta's short list of choices at 21.
2.Tanner Rahier: HS SS mocked to Atlanta by KLaw, he is a very polished hitter and poses less risk than the typical high school player. He is likely a 3B in pro ball, but he has an outside chance of sticking at short or being able to handle 2B. Early indications show him to be signable, which should place him in the short list of candidates for Atlanta's first pick.
3.Victor Roache: College LF mocked to Atlanta by Jim Callis. Roache is one of the most polarizing players in the draft. Personally, I tend to side with those that see Roache as more of a second round talent. If you buy into him as a first round talent, you see massive power potential that could be a steal in the late first round. However, I'm not a fan of the swing and there is a good chance he won't hit enough to reach his power potential. Additionally, Roache lost his senior year to a gruesome wrist injury that required screws and plates to repair. It wouldn't be the first time a wrist injury has sapped a player's power for an extended period of time, and power is really the only stake Roache has to a first round selection. As a relatively raw college OF, I don't see him making sense for Atlanta, but the rumors connecting the two parties likely won't die until draft day.
That covers basically every player I've seen linked to Atlanta. Assuming Stratton and Heaney are off the board, my preference list at 21 would go Brian Johnson, D.J. Davis, Matt Smoral, Tanner Rahier, Pierce Johnson, and in a distant last, Victor Roache. Hopefully this will serve as an adequate draft preview and foster interesting discussion leading up to the big day. There are plenty of more possibilities out there, so feel free to throw out more names. Thanks for reading!
Disclaimer: this is obviously not a totally serious post, but hopefully it proves to be an enjoyable/interesting one. If it is, I may post more in this vein in the future.
A lot has been made of the Braves' Monday blues so far this year. With a dismal 0-6 record, we the fans have to believe there's a reason for our inability to win games on the most detestable day of the week. What could be behind this troubling trend? Is our team composed of Garfields, oversleeping and stuffing themselves on lasagna to get over that dreadful return from the weekend? Did we not offer the appropriate sacrifice to the Moon? Is Fredi's cap-tipping a bad-luck gesture that rolls over on a weekly basis? Who knows. Without watching the team constantly or consulting with a reputable medium, it would be impossible for us to determine exactly what is responsible. Thanks to the magic of statistics, however, we can look at how the days of the week have affected the Braves in recent years.
Memorial Day is looming, and SB Nation's YouTube channel wants to honor veterans with an original video. If you served overseas, we want your help: we're seeking video of veterans talking about their favorite sports memories while deployed.
It can be anything: how you learned who won the World Series, watching the Super Bowl at 3 a.m., playing soccer with Iraqi kids -- whatever sports memory that has stuck with you through the years. Tell us how you felt, what the atmosphere was like, why it mattered to you.
No need for fancy production: webcams are fine, and you can upload it to twitvid or YouTube. Send your submissions to Matt Ufford, the guy at SB Nation handling this project. You can tweet it to him, or email him the video file. Please include your name, your service, and the years you served.
Thanks, and we look forward to sharing your memories.
I have been watching baseball for many years now and one thing I've noticed is that the quality of baseball umpires has gone down. It seems that very few can hold a consistent strike zone throughout the game and they have blown many high profile calls over the last few years. This doesn't however take away from the 99% of calls they get right.
It seems that over the last 5 years they have been very quick to throw players out of a game for arguing balls and strikes. I understand that they are pressured by MLB to keep games moving but why isn't there some sort system set up to punish umpires when they are wrong. It's gotten to the point where if a player even questions a call he's getting thrown out. I understand that there is Kzone set up to make sure they are calling a consistent strike zone but does anyone really think its even still used or for that matter does anyone the results really matter.
These are just some things that I think need to be changed about baseball. MLB needs to limit the power of umpires. There needs to be a stricter adherence to the strike zone. Its all in the name of making the game consistent.
These are some of my thoughts, now whats yours. Should the umpires be left alone or should more attention be paid to them making better calls and not being so quick to toss a player.
In 2004, HGH won its fourth consecutive NL MVP award in a row and just happened to be richly flowing through the body of a 40 year old Barry Bonds, resulting in the infamous slugger forcing his name on to yet another record. He became the oldest player to win an MVP award. His name basically sits at or near the top of every batting record, and many of those records will most likely remain intact for a very long time, including the hallowed HR record. Him surpassing Aaron was a sad day, not just for Braves fans, but for many traditional baseball enthusiasts. So any chance, small or big, for any baseball player with all-natural talent to usurp one of his many records is exciting and worth following; but if that player happens to be Chipper Jones, then every baseball fan in the world should be cheering their tuckus' off and hoping for the possibility. I admit, it is a long shot for him to win it, but if Chipper can muster together one last magical season without spending a lot of time on the DL (which is a long shot in itself) he could become the oldest player to win the MVP award. There isn't a better option to take back one record for baseball from Barry than Chipper himself- one of the last true team players, a natural talent who molded himself after players from another era, an era where even most "superstars" held a great deal of respect for the game. Bonds' artificially enhanced numbers unseated many greats from their more deserved spots and left baseball with a bad taste in its mouth and many marks that may never get erased. Chipper has got a chance to start the slow and enduring process of maybe restoring some order to the record books the natural way: by just plain beating him, no asterisks attached. That's awesome.
The Braves are 10-0 when Chipper strikes out. Even in his weakness the Braves find strength.
13-1 when chipper gets a hit
12-0 when Chipper gets an RBI
11-0 when Pastornicky scores
8-0 when freddie hits a double
16-2 when Bourn scores
6-0 when uggla has multiple RBIs
So there are some random Braves stats I accumulated. I look forward to seeing how long this strikeout thing can go...
The new free agent compensation system kicks in after the 2012 season. How will it impact the Braves and the NL East?
The Braves have played 34 games, more than 20% of the season. It's still early, but it isn't too early to discuss some trends. Here are five questions for fans to chew on. Dive in and discuss any or all....
1) In his last three starts, 24 year old lefty Mike Minor has pitched a total of 16 innings, surrendering 21 earned runs, 26 hits, and 7 HRs. This represents an 11.80 ERA over his last three starts. In that 16 inning span, Minor has struck out twenty batters while walking seven, which doesn't look bad on first blush. But he has been far too hittable. One of these starts was in Denver, so you could write it off if that one was his only poor outing. But the trend is a little worrisome, as he was not able to get through five innings after being staked to an early lead in his most recent start. Why has Minor been so hittable lately? Is this to be expected when a young lefthanded pitcher draws back to back starts in Colorado and St. Louis? Is Minor a permanant fixture in Atlanta's rotation now? Or if this recent hittability trend continues over his next several starts, could Minor be optioned back to Gwinnett? What do you think of Minor's stuff?
2) If a current Atlanta starter goes down with an injury, or flounders before the All Star break, who gets recalled first....Jair Jurrjens or Julio Teheran? Why? Has Jurrjens' velocity improved in Gwinnett? Has Teheran's command improved sufficiently for him to earn a recall soon? What do Jurrjens' and Teheran's futures look like with this franchise?
3) No one honestly expects Eric O'Flaherty to match his 2011 season, which was one of the best ever produced by any major league relief pitcher. In any case, EOF has struggled so far this season. He has a 1.78 WHIP so far in 2012, and his command hasn't been very good. But his last two outings were successful. Has EOF lost his regular seventh inning role to Kris Medlen? What does the future hold for EOF with the Braves?
4) Freddie Freeman leads the Braves with 6 HRs and 27 RBIs, and is third among positional starters with an .823 OPS. However, Freeman has just 4 hits in his last 25 ABs, with only 1 RBI and no extra base hits over that span. Obviously, Fredi Gonzalez views Freeman as a productive player in the middle of the Braves' batting order over the long term. But Freeman is still only 22 years old. Is Freeman now a fixture in the third spot in the Braves' batting order? If Freeman hits, will he stay in the #3 hole indefinitely? Or if he continues to slump, how long will Fredi Gonzalez stick with him in the #3 spot in the order?
5) Martin Prado currently ranks 4th on the team in runs scored, and has an attractive .355 OBP (better than his career .342 OBP). However, Prado's .411 SLB ranks behind his career .433 SLG. The spring trade for Juan Francisco suggests Frank Wren is not totally sold on Prado as Atlanta's inevitable third baseman of the future. Meanwhile, has Prado now solidified his current role as Atlanta's starting LF and #2 hitter? Or will Wren seek a LF upgrade later this year? Is Prado off the trading block now?
