Hi again, everybody. Welcome to Part 5 of my series on the 2010 Fan Projections from FanGraphs. Here are the links to the first 4 parts:
In this part, I'll be looking at the fan projections for NL East relievers. While there does not seem to be a dominant bullpen in the division, there are a few that definitely seem thin. Of course, how many dominant bullpens are there? I'm starting to think that the "shut-down" bullpen is just a myth along the lines of Bigfoot or Jason Heyward's weakness. Probably half the bullpens in the majors are sketchy at best, and even the ones that seem relatively solid could go downhill fast.
Which brings me to my mega-disclaimer. Bullpens are practically impossible to project, outside of a few stalwarts. Most teams use between 15 and 20 relievers in a normal season, and many of those players are marginal big leaguers at best. Plus, the sample sizes are small, which means that luck has a larger effect than normal. For most everyday player and starting pitcher projections, I'd say that the fans stand a pretty decent chance of at least being in the ballpark. But for many relievers, I think the chances of getting an accurate projection are no better than 50/50. So just don't be surprised if these projections go horribly awry. This is for entertainment purposes only.
It cut out after ten minutes and now someone is interviewing David Wright.
Mods: delete this if you want, I've just been waiting for this show all week and it pisses me off.
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After watching Jason Heyward's spring, many (including myself) have been thinking it would be a good idea to have him start on opening day. This of course starts the debate about how the financial implications compare vs. how the team will perform with / without Heyward on it. I've put some numbers down to help myself decide what I think about the situation and I thought I'd share.
For those who don't know, baseball salary rules for young players work as follows. Players with less than 3 years of service time basically make the league minimum, which for my calculations I will assume is $400k. Players with more than 3 years of service time but less than 6 years of service time are "arbitration eligible". The arbitration process allows a player to earn a salary that is a fraction of his "market value". Players with more than 6 years of service can become free agents, and agree to any contract. In the three years of arbitration, the process is supposed to produce salaries that are 40%, 60%, and 80% of the "market value" in arb years 1, 2, and 3.
A wrinkle in the arbitration rules is that a "year" is defined as a certain number of days (172 to be exact), and a player must have at least that many days to get credit for 1 year. Thus, if a player accrues 171 days of service time in a season that does not count as "1 year". A typical baseball season has ~180 days, so getting to 1 year of service is possible without starting opening day. To prevent abuse of this system, MLB rules allow the top 17% of players with at least 2 but less than 3 years of service time to become arbitration eligible. These players are called "Super 2's", and go through arbitration 4 times instead of 3. In the past, the cutoff for super 2 status is typically in the range of 128 - 140 days of service time. Counting forward from the start of the season, this means that players called up after June 1 are typically "safe" from Super 2 status.
That's a lot of words, so lets use a specific example; Jason Heyward. In the example that follows, I've made some assumptions in the calculations:
First, I've assumed that Jason Heyward will go to salary arbitration every year he can, and receive exactly the "proper" amount - i.e. 40% / 60% / 80% of his "market value" in the arbitration process. The splits for super 2's are harder to find, so I've used 30% / 50% / 70% / 90% as a basis. It is straightforward to redo the calcs with any basis you like, so feel free to change it and comment below.
Second, I need to establish what Jason's "market value" is to project his salary for each of the possibilities. The actual process does not use WAR, but that's what I use here. I have assumed that Jason Heyward will play at a 5 WAR pace every single year. Now, all we need is $ / WAR, which was about $4.5M / WAR last year. You are free to use whatever WAR projection / cost you like, as you'll see I don't think it changes the conclusions at all.
Here's the year by year breakdown for three cases, with service time and salary listed: starting Opening Day, calling Jason up June 1, or calling Jason up ~April 20, so he just becomes a Super 2.
League Min 0.4
WAR 5
$ / WAR 4.5M
Year Opening Day Non-Super 2 Super 2
2010 1yr $0.4 < 1yr $0.4 < 1yr $0.4
2011 2yr $0.4 1+ yr $0.4 1+ yr $0.4
2012 3yr $0.4 2+ yr $0.4 2+ yr $0.4
2013 Arb 1 $9.0 3+ yr $0.4 Arb 1 $6.8
2014 Arb 2 $13.5 Arb 1 $9.0 Arb 2 $11.3
2015 Arb 3 $18.0 Arb 2 $13.5 Arb 3 $15.8
2016 FA $22.5 Arb 3 $18.0 Arb 4 $20.3
2017 FA FA FA
TOTAL $64.2 $42.1 $55.2
Looking at the table above, one thing is clear: having Jason accrue a full year of service time in 2010 is a bad financial decision. The penalty for this is the difference in cost between his market value salary and the league minimum (or Arb 1 year salary for Super 2). For a player of Jason's potential, this is a lot of money.
Secondly, the "penalty" for letting a player hit Super 2 splits the difference between the opening day and June 1 time frames in this example. I'd say the "minimum penalty" would be a scenario where the arbitration targets are 20/40/60/80%, in which case the total difference is about $4M. Again, I'd love to see some "real" numbers here rather than the 4 fractions I've arbitrarily chosen.
So, now that we understand the financial impact, what about the impact to the team that Jason brings when he's playing? In my opinion, there is a trap that many people fall into here, and it starts along the lines of "If the Braves finish X games out of first / wild card at the end of the year, then you'll regret not having Heyward up the entire time". People then assume that the difference in games is certainly made up by having Heyward in the lineup. The fact of the matter is that there is no way to evaluate game-by-game how a player will contribute - i.e whether Heyward could make up those 2 games that the Braves lost in April - May when someone else was playing RF. The best method that I'm aware of is to calculate the player WAR, and pro-rate that contribution over the time period of interest. Then, take the difference in what Heyward would contribute and what his replacement (Cabrera / Hinske / Diaz / other) would contribute and see how many "wins" are at stake.
For example, lets now assume Heyward will produce 6 WAR if he plays every single game this year. If we assume the season is 6 months long, then that is 1 WAR / month. Let's now assume that whoever plays RF if not Heyward will produce 1.5 WAR (0.25 WAR / month) if they played every single game this year. Again, pick whatever numbers you like. Thus:
Heyward plays every day: 6 WAR from RF for the year
Heyward plays starting June 1: 4.5 WAR total from RF for the year
Heyward plays starting mid-April: 5.6 WAR from RF for the year
If we take the differences in each scenario, we find that Heyward as a Super 2 only costs the Braves 0.5 game. Heyward called up June 1 costs the Braves 1.5 games. Thus, if the Braves finish 2 or more games out of a playoff spot, having Heyward around vs. not does not swing the stakes in the Braves favor in this example. If Heyward plays at less than 6 WAR and / or if the replacement RF plays at better than 1.5 WAR, then Heyward's presence / absence makes even less of an impact on the Braves postseason chances.
Obviously, players don't contribute in a linear fashion as indicated in the argument above - a really bad April / May for the replacement vs. an unbelievably hot Heyward in the same time frame, for example, might make the total win difference higher.
As a Braves fan, I simply cannot justify letting Heyward start opening day. To me, the decision is Super 2 vs. non-Super 2, and based on Jason's spring, I think the Super 2 route is probably the right way to go. You give up some $ later on, but not nearly as much as opening day, and you minimize your chance that not having Heyward all year long costs you a playoff spot.
If you've made it this far, I'll end with this: another possibility that I haven't included is that Jason can be signed to a long term contract sometime just before arbitration eligibility (think Brian McCann, Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria). Players usually give up money by doing this, but they gain the security of having a guaranteed contract. The team also gains cost certainty. In some cases, the total figure could be less than the middle column listed above! This possibility is the best case scenario in my opinion, as the team retains control of Heyward for as long as possible, gets the most playing time from him, and gets him at the minimum amount.
Hello again, everybody. Two weeks ago, we looked at who should be our leadoff hitter for the upcoming season. Despite having the lowest OBP of any of the candidates, Nate McLouth was voted leadoff hitter by gathering 63% of the vote. A lot has changed since then, but hopefully Nasty Nate will break out of his slump before the season starts.
Today, lets look at who should hit 2nd in the order for us.
Everyone needs to pray that the weather gets better in Jupiter today as I took off work and have great seats for the Braves/Marlins game this afternoon. Anyone know who is scheduled to pitch? I know Gondee usually posts it in the game thread but I'm way to excited to wait. Anyone else going to the game today? All I want to do is drink a few beers in the sun while watching the 2010 NL East Champs stomp the fish.
Spring Training is almost to the halfway point, so I decided to take a look at our two newest offensive impact players, Troy Glaus and Jason Heyward, and see how they are doing.
This past August, my wife and I made the move to the Atlanta area. After living in Northern Virginia for a couple of year and growing up in Central Florida, I never have had a rooting interest in baseball. I am not a die-hard by any means, football and basketball are far more my sport than baseball, but I do enjoy going to the games and loosely following baseball. I love numbers, I love analytical stuff so I know this post will come as an annoyance to folks like myself. Regardless, I seek your advice.
I would love to make the Braves my team (I know this is unconventional at the age of 25), but want your insight on things I need to know as a Braves fan. It could be a casual, light-hearted piece of advice or some historical insights. Feel free to delete this post if you feel it is a waste of time. You can often find me at TomahawkNation, BucEm or OrlandoPinStripedPost, I hope to become an active member of this community. Cheers!
if mclouth continues to prove he shouldn't be leading off, what do yall think about batting him second and platooning Diaz and Cabrera in the leadoff spot?
Cabrera bats around 300 when he leads off an inning -- .309 against righties (.035 improvement over his average) with a .373 obp (vs. RHP)
Diaz has batted .415 leading off against LHP (.440 obp) and almost 50 points better (.300) against rhp (.417 obp)
So I am not suggesting a strict platoon between lefties and righties, in fact, batting diaz leadoff seems the way to get the most out of him against rhp. And for that matter, batting Cabrera leadoff seems like the best way to get the most out of him as well. So however much they platoon, it's a great place for both of them to bat.
Also, besides Mclouth (and heyward who is unlkely to start the season at the top of the order) they are the two best base runners on the team. Not only does this make them the next top candidates to lead off, but also, they may be the only players--besides heyward --that wouldn't be a clog in mclouth's base paths.
It should also be mentioned that Diaz-->Mclouth--> Chipper goes R-L-S; and Cabrera--> Mclouth--Chipper is S-L-S
We want Mclouth's speed at the top of the order, but we don't want to cripple him by batting him leadoff (if this continues to seem the case). It also seems a good idea to go ahead and take advantage of the fact that batting these guys leadoff gets the most out of them. They are also our best candidates as runners.
I know there is an argument that you want your leadoff hitter to be consistent, but this strategy is oriented to get MORE CONSISTENT production out of the leadoff spot than Mclouth or Diaz can offer on their own--not to mention the fact that its considerably MORE production as a whole.
I just wanted to know was it possible to get the stats of the players so far in ST. I just wanted to see how the players were doing. Is there a website I can go to for this information. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks. Now I have to make this 75 words. I am now at 59 words. I would do a fan shot but i am new at this. Again any help would be appreciated.
Hey guys and gals, I had a quick question to see if any of you homers could help sway my decision. I'm in a Head to head fantasy league, with 3 keepers. My first two choices were simple, Matt Kemp and Tim Lincecum. My third choice is a little more difficult...
I am torn between keeping Grady Sizemore, or Brian Mccann. I have a feeling both are due for monster seasons, Grady will bounce back to close to 30-30 numbers, and Heap, well, dudes a beast. There are no penalties for K's, and i know for a fact that either will be gone when its my pick (last pick, as I am reigning champ, thanks very much) I also have Hanson to throw his name in the ring, but I could prob grab him up later.
Well Chop Talkers, what do you think? Who to keep? Sizemore? Mac? Whats your thoughts?
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