Mike Zarrilli - Getty Images
According to Keith Law, Arodys Vizcaino is the Braves' number-one prospect.
Keith Law of ESPN has released his top-10 2012 Atlanta Braves prospects. Let me just say, there are some surprises (the numbers beside the top-4 indicate what their rank is on Law's top-100 list):
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (14)
Julio Teheran, RHP (18)
Christian Bethancourt, C (94)
Randall Delgado, RHP (98)
Andrelton Simmons, SS
Tyler Pastornicky, SS
Sean Gilmartin, LHP
Zeke Spruill, RHP
J.R. Graham, RHP
Matt Lipka, OF
So first, Arodys Vizcaino! Wait, that's not so shocking, let me back up. Julio Teheran at number 18! Does Law know something that no one else does? He ranks six pitchers ahead of Teheran (including Vizcaino), and while I could see a case for a couple of them, I still don't get it. Law ranked Teheran sixth in his 2011 top-100, but while the writeup on him this year says "he's farther away than he appeared to be a year ago," that still doesn't explain dropping him that much in the rankings. It seems to me that Law is viewing Teheran with a glass half empty eye and viewing other guys with similar development paths as glass half full prospects.
He ranks Bethancourt very aggressively, and ahead of Delagdo, but that's likely more about how much he's soured on Delgado than anything else. Here is some of what he says about Delgado in his scouting report, which also gives us some insight into his thoughts about Teheran and Vizcaino (my emphasis):
One thing that became clear during the 2011 season about Atlanta's troika of top pitching prospects is that Delgado, while a strong prospect in his own right, didn't belong in the same discussion as Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino. He didn't possess Teheran's stuff and projection, or Vizcaino's control and plus breaking ball. While those two arms progressed last year, Delgado remains as he was, with a solid-average fastball that will touch 96 mph and an above-average changeup that won't miss enough bats on its own, especially without another pitch to move away from right-handed hitters and keep them honest.
He is still projectable with a loose arm, but the upside of his two system-mates hasn't rubbed off on him. There's a good enough chance that Delgado ends up in the bullpen because of the lack of a third pitch to drop him a level on these rankings, as he's more like a No. 3 or a No. 4 in a rotation or a setup man if he goes to the pen.
Look at how he sees not only Delgado against the other two guys, but at how he describes Teheran versus Vizcaino. Teheran is "stuff and projection," a work in progress, while Vizcaino is "control and plus breaking ball," without any qualifiers about "projection." In Vizcaino's scouting report, Law says "he's a three-pitch starter who has a history of plus control, and just needs time and health to become a No. 1 or No. 2 starter."
I read all that (or maybe I'm reading into all that) as Law just likes Vizcaino better than Teheran from a stuff perspective, even though both have question marks, so he's doing a bit of picking favorites. All of that is perfectly okay in any kind of prospect analysis, but we can respectfully disagree (and I do). This was reflected in last year's rankings, when Law had Freddie Freeman at number-43, and didn't even rank Craig Kimbrel. Those two guys, by the way, finished first and second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. (Maybe that's a good sign for Teheran and Delgado.)
No Edward Salcedo on this list either, and with his tools I would have expected to see him. Especially ahead of Lipka, a prospect that Salcedo out-performed at the same level.
0 recs | 95 comments
Did he get Teheran and Vizcaino mixed up? I was always under the impression that Teheran had the plus control and breaking ball, and Vizcaino was the great stuff and projection guy.
Bedhead514 - February 9, 2012
i think
Vizzy actually locates his fastball and curve slightly better than teheran does, but his change is probably a flat 40 and he’s an injury risk. Tehran still can throw consistent strikes and command both, but Vizzy has surprisingly good command
JHey1212 - February 9, 2012 via mobile
His take on Vizcaino’s changeup is odd to me.
BenDuronio - February 9, 2012
yeah
I thought he had Vizzy and Delgado mixed up for a second.
JHey1212 - February 9, 2012 via mobile
I'm glad you're posting this...
I can’t wait to read the comments. Sadly, I don’t follow our prospects as well as I should (other than names and general performance). Thus, I want to see what this site says about his rankings.
He dropped Atlanta in the overall rankings to 16th. 16th?! Why? Is it the lack of hitters?
Jman781 - February 9, 2012
That was his explanation. Probably that combined with the fact that he likes Teheran and Delgado less than most of the others. Still low to me. 12ish sounds about right to me.
BenDuronio - February 9, 2012
Yeah...
I guess he’s right, but with all the pitching depth, we should be able get some bats (in theory). I agree we should be higher.
Plus, Freeman and Heyward, two really, really good hitters (not including McCann) are extremely young and not included as prospects.
Jman781 - February 9, 2012
Interesting.....
Thanks for the post
Braves24 - February 9, 2012
We can finally put a name to the formerly unknown Russian Olympics Judge
it’s “Keith Law”
carpengui - February 9, 2012
This cracked me up.
GumpBrave - February 11, 2012
Wow. Don't be a 20-year old and dominate AAA...
and then pitch averagely in the Bigs. Or else…Keith Law will drop you 20 spots on his prospect list…
TBuzz - February 9, 2012
Ha...
No kidding.
Personally, I thought Delgado looked solid last season, considering.
Jman781 - February 9, 2012
The kid was no-hitting the Phillies late last year .
I was highly impressed with him after that game .
bravesdude - February 9, 2012
Thought that was the Giants?
Undocorkscrew - February 9, 2012
Might have been .
I looked it up and although he did pitch against the Phillies in his last game last year , His best game was against the Giants . He only gave up 1 hit in that game in 6 innings and looked as though he could have went longer , if that’s the game I’m thinking of .
My fault . Last season seems so long ago .
bravesdude - February 10, 2012
Regardless...
He looked better than the 98th best prospect…
Jman781 - February 10, 2012
pssssshhht what a joke.
chop goes da weazel - February 9, 2012
This kind of offends me
At the same time though, I can’t wait for those three pitchers to make Keith eat his words/rankings.
jnrumsey - February 9, 2012
Teheran/Delgado are like Keith Law who?
That said, I think both of them will be in the minors most of the year which won’t help ROTY.
Especially if JJ and Hanson can overcome their injury bug/mechanical issues.
Then again, this is the time for hope. At least if things go wrong, we don’t need to be scared. We could lose our whole rotation and still compete. Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino/Medlen/C-Mart is a mediocre rotation, but not a disaster.
Broccoman - February 9, 2012
Man
I almost want to make that a sig
royhobbs - February 9, 2012
It just seems like he's being contrarian to get a rise
and isn’t even consistent. Or maybe I’m cherry picking from this line here…
So he was 6th last year, moved up a level, and excelled to the point of being the league’s Pitcher of the Year with an amazing season numbers wise (unless you are K rate obsessed), and he’s now “farther away”? My response to logic like that would be headexplodeargumentinvalid.jpg
Mr. Sanchez - February 9, 2012
This
He’s doing his job by getting Braves fans all riled up and more traffic to his site. Braves have more fans(good or bad) than most teams. Hence more bitching and moaning about his ranking and he(espn as well) gets paid.
Jay212033 - February 9, 2012
Can we drop the industrial-journalism conspiracy complex?
Look, I’m not completely enthralled with KLaw’s rankings. But I certainly respect him enough as a writer to not resort to ad hominem attacks over his MO every time he publishes a prospect list that doesn’t necessarily fit my views, or a perceived consensus. I find myself disagreeing with him a bit, but his reasoning is spelled out in the comments on each player and it rings far from a “screw it, let’s stir up controversy” approach.
OrangeBravo - February 9, 2012
His “reasoning” contradicts what he says in previous statements. And it’s almost like he’s saying “screw it i’m gonna stir up controversy”.
Jay212033 - February 9, 2012
Previous statements 6-months ago?
because call me crazy, but I’m absolutely ok with someone changing their evaluation of a prospect. It’s not like Teheran is a perfect prospect. He certainly has flaws. His ranking is reasonably consistent with where it was on the midyear prospect list. His reasoning makes sense to me, despite the fact I don’t necessarily agree with it.
OrangeBravo - February 9, 2012
No prospect is perfect so why make such a ridiculous statement. If he’s gonna downgrade Terehan after a couple ML starts when he dominated AAA at 20 all because his K rate dipped is really nitpicking prospects.
Jay212033 - February 9, 2012
See, you say it yourself...
His K Rate dropped significantly. No one is stupid enough to downgrade Teheran because of his rough patch in his 19 ML innings last year.
But, in 145 AAA innings, he had a 7.6 K/9. That is really unremarkable, and certainly cause for concern. Look at the top 15 starters in terms of fWAR over the past two years. Only three had K/9 under 8 (Cain, Wilson, and Haren), but they each had extraordinary secondary skills in terms of walk rates or HR rates that exceed Teheran’s. Statistically, he didn’t pitch like an ace last year.
Now, if you want to say you think his numbers will improve due to better command or an improved curveball to the point where he could be an ace, then that’s fine, that’s your opinion. KLaw’s opinion is that he isn’t optimistic that Teheran will (or even can) make the needed adjustments to go from something like a really good #2 to an ace. However, a #2 pitcher is still really fricking good, hence the ranking in the top 20 prospects in all of baseball.
It seems like you are starting with the base assumption “Teheran dominated AAA” and are unwilling to consider that maybe other people don’t share said assumption; I certainly don’t. There are legitimate reasons for dropping Teheran a little in the rankings, and they can’t simply be dismissed by saying “he dominated AAA,” and labeling all thoughts and concerns that don’t align with this mode of thinking as “nitpicking.”
OrangeBravo - February 9, 2012
Why do you conveniently leave out the fact that he did this at 20? How many other 20 year old kid did what he did this past season?
Jay212033 - February 10, 2012
Relative Ranking
Its entirely possible in this sort of relative ranking that a player’s projection stay exactly the same and still drop in the relative rankings because others exceeded previous expectations.
Bobby Hill#1 - February 10, 2012
But he didn't say that
nor did he talk about the K rate. People are making excuses for him that aren’t there. No one is saying somewhere in the teens is absurd for Teheran. it’s not. It could be higher, it could be lower, it’s all personal opinion. But the reason given for dropping him does not accurately reflect the reality out there.
Mr. Sanchez - February 10, 2012
Great, he's 20.
That’s fine and dandy. He doesn’t simply get better by being 20. For his results to improve and translate to MLB, his approach has to improve. The two obvious ways for that to happen would be for him to tighten up his curve or to improve his command…neither of which are sure things. He can tread water and be a #2. Thats immensely valuable. But to
be an ace, there’s work to be done. 20 or not, that is no guarantee.
OrangeBravo - February 10, 2012 via iPhone app
Pointless conversation I see
Your a Law apologist. I bet you think he was correct on Freeman too right. Obviously the other scouts who have seen Teheran and think that he’s at least Top 3(pitching wise) are just all following suit and Law knows something else because a 20 yo K rate dropped in AAA.
Jay212033 - February 10, 2012
how was he wrong on Freeman?
if I remember correctly he thought Freeman was advanced for his age and would hold his own in his rookie of the year, picking him as the favorite for ROY. He just didn’t think that Freeman had a ridiculous ceiling, predicting him to be more of a .280, 20-25 homer guy than your prototypical masher at first who is going to hit 30-35 year in and year out.
Rodrda01 - February 10, 2012
He said his ceiling was the good Lyle Overbay
In his 3 best seasons, Overbay averaged a 121 wRC+. Freeman just posted a 118 (Overbay had 2 seasons better than that in his career) at age 21. Law might not have been proven wrong yet, but unless Freeman doesn’t improve at all going forward, he will be.
nixa37 - February 10, 2012
Then you are not remembering correctly
Mr. Sanchez - February 10, 2012
actually
I just looked it up and I did remember correctly, wont repost because of risking my insider account, but thats just what he said
Rodrda01 - February 11, 2012
↑
CMassey - February 11, 2012
Then he made multiple statements on it
he was not flattering of Freeman, and felt his HR total last year would be the best he could possibly give.
Mr. Sanchez - February 12, 2012
Oh sure.
I choose to look at a scouting report and try to understand the rationale behind it, which in this case really isn’t all that difficult, obviously making me a Law apologist. I’ve stated numerous times that I don’t necessarily agree… but I can always respect an informed opinion, as presented here by KLaw. But of course, if a prospect we all think is great doesn’t get the high ranking from every last journalist, then the party guilty of dissent is clearly a hack trying to run up page views by being as wrong as possible.
OrangeBravo - February 10, 2012
Ok what “informed opinion” ? What information did he give? He’s not basing his drop on the low K rate, I made that statement and if he had I could respect that a lot more than what he actually stated.
Jay212033 - February 10, 2012
No, but he probably gets better by being 21, 22, 23 etc because that means more experience. It isn’t numerical, it is experience based. Saying a 20 year old might not be as far along as once thought speaks very little to potential upside.
GumpBrave - February 11, 2012
Obsessions with strikeouts in evaluating pitchers is getting ridiculous
Mr. Sanchez - February 10, 2012
Especially for someone that's so young
Teheran just finished throwing twice as many innings in the IL as a 20 year old as all other 20 year old pitchers combined have in the IL since 2006, and he posted the best ERA and second best FIP in the league while doing that. He had an FIP of ~2.5 until his start on 8/31 when he seemed to begin wearing down. Worrying about a merely solid K rate is just strange when looking at his performance as a whole.
nixa37 - February 10, 2012
Look, Teheran is an absurdly good prospect.
We all agree on that. I’m simply talking about the odds of him becoming an ace. His year last year was phenomenal. However, i do think that he has improvements to make to reach his lofty ceiling. At 20 years old, he could certainly tighten the curve and improve his command. I’m not saying its impossible or even unlikely. I just don’t think its a guarantee that he becomes an ace, and a 7.6 K rate is at the very least concerning. It’s not the final verdict on him as a prospect and it doesn’t completely define him, but its something that needs watching. He could very well become better, but as it stands currently he has improvements to make before he becomes the truly dominant pitcher everyone expects him to become. And the fact that changes still need to occur and adjustments made is why i understand the concerns that some people have.
OrangeBravo - February 10, 2012
With the statement you just made besides Moore and Miller(even he’s debatable), tell me how can you rank Cole, Bundy, Vizcaino and Tallion ahead of Teheran? All those guys have improvements to make.
Jay212033 - February 10, 2012
I certainly wouldn't have Vizcaino ahead of Teheran.
I don’t think there is a rational justification for that. But you can certainly make the argument that Cole and Bundy, and possibly Taillon have higher ceilings than Teheran. Taillon and Bundy have a crapton of risk though.
Personally, I prefer the probability of Teheran over the incremental advantages in ceiling that the pitchers in the preceding group have. But, KLaw heavily favors upside. There is at least some reason to the train of thought that favors star power. Personally, of the pitchers you mentioned, I would go something like Moore-Miller-Teheran-Cole-Bundy-Taillon. But favoring the upside of Cole, Bundy, and Taillon isn’t completely unreasonable, it’s just one way to view prospects.
Teheran, Miller, Bundy, Taillon, and Cole all have significant changes to make. The upside of making the adjustments isn’t necessarily equal amongst these prospects though.
OrangeBravo - February 12, 2012
Seriously. There are a lot more well intentioned idiots in this world than there are devious masterminds.
GumpBrave - February 11, 2012
Didn't we already establish that Keith Law
blows goats when it comes to assessing prospects?
JoelGuzman'sScout - February 9, 2012
He didn't even have last years ROTY ranked last year .
You know ……. that Kimbrel guy . Oh and the runner up , he had ranked 43rd . I read his rankings and go , meh ?
bravesdude - February 9, 2012
I think I'll trust the consensus over Law's rankings.
He’s allowed to see what he sees. I disagree with him, but I’m not going to get worked up over the perceived slight to our system. It seems like he’s being contrary just to be contrary. And really, in the grand scheme of things, there isn’t much difference between #5 and #20 anyways.
soup du jour - February 9, 2012
Notes
Honestly, I’ve thought Vizcaino has been consistently underrated by a lot of other people. He’s got 2 elite pitches in his FB and CB; he’s been a strike throwing machine in the past (had a huge walkless streak a couple of years ago; he’s also some some silly K/BB ratios) though that’s been something that he hasn’t been able to replicate after his injuries. If he gets back to starting, reestablishes his control and proves his durability, I think he’s a sure-fire top 10 P prospect. Unfortunately, even if he could do it, I don’t think the Braves will give him the chance. Adding him to O’Ventbrel is a potentially deadly late inning combination.
As for the rest, the only surprise for me was that Salcedo was left off. I believe in his upside, and that’s something that Law values. Still, it was nice to see Graham and Lipka get some love though. Think Graham could start drawing comparisons to Roy Oswalt in the near future. As for Lipka, it’s hard to fault him to badly for this past year – that entire team seemed to regress some. If you’re not willing to give him a full pass on last season, then he deserves at least a little one.
The rest was fairly predictable: I’m not too high on Bethancourt (prospect fatigue plays a factor here), but he’s got HoF tools. I was always a little down on Delgado, but seeing him in person verified it for me. I think his upside is more in the “innings-eater” type than a true ToR type. Yeah, there’s value there, but it’s hard to place him as a top-50 overall guy.
theatlfan - February 9, 2012
If I were to tell you that you were to get these three pitchers
One who would win 20 games in a season in his career, have an average ERA+ of 113 each season while averaging 221 innings before arm issues cut short his career in his early 30s
One who would be top 25 in BA’s rankings two seasons in a row at age 19 and 20, but sported a total of 32 decisions in the major leagues, 12 of which occurred in his rookie year.
One who would never crack the top 30 in BA’s rankings, but was a top 100 guy three years in a row at ages 20, 21, and 22, reaching AAA at age 21, but would post a 6.16 ERA and 1.67 WHIP as a starter before converting to relief and having a 15+ year career.
All drafted the same year after the 1st round, all reaching the majors the same year. Which one would you be touting as most valuable to your team as a starter? That “innings eater” type ended up, even with an injury-shortened career, sporting 3 TIMES the WAR of either of the other two. I’m rather sick of reading that inning-eater types aren’t valuable in prospecting. The only ones they’re truly NOT valuable to are the guys looking to make the “sexy” picks for a magazine, book, or website, or for fantasy players. Those guys have a ton of value for real baseball.
biggentleben - February 9, 2012
???
Look, I never said that Delgado doesn’t have value nor did I say that I wouldn’t put him in the top-100 prospects. I just wouldn’t put in the same category of prospect as Teheran and, IMO, Vizcaino. Typically, prospects who have the potential to be ToR types would be rated higher than those who are MoR inning-eaters. Sorry if that maddens you so though.
As far as the 3 pitchers, I’m sure I could find examples of guys where the higher rated prospect was better than the lower rated prospect – actually, I’m sure could find a lot of them. Even so, I don’t necessarily consider a perennial 20 game winner a “innings eater” either – there are also several examples of prospects outplaying their prospect status as well. Hopefully, Delgado can outpitch what I’ve thought of him.
theatlfan - February 9, 2012
You underestimate his stuff
his strikeout rates have always been really good in the minors. All of his pitches could be above average to plus, in fact only one that’s not there is his curve ball which he tends to give away very early, in an attempt to get extra movement. You’re looking too much into his major league starts
JHey1212 - February 9, 2012
the lack of deception in his curve is disconcerting to me, thats what worries me most, and I honestly soured a bit on him because of it. I dont think his fastball and change are good enough to be his only two pitches, so he needs to be able to throw his curve consistently and not have it get crushed. I also thought his fastball was a bit straight at times, but from reports thats not normal so its not as much of a concern to me.
Swo12bv - February 9, 2012
Delgado
I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve discounted a lot of stats and other things about Delgado that others salivate over. As I said above though, I’ve never liked him such much as to put him in the elite P prospect list – even going back to a couple of years when he was getting sleeper status. Just see his ML comp as closer to Joe Blanton than Roy Halladay. Good player to be sure (and still someone that I’d prolly give my left nut to exchange places with), but when you’re putting someone in the elite prospect category, you expect more.
theatlfan - February 10, 2012
And I see Jurrjens
with a little more heat.
Mr. Sanchez - February 10, 2012
thats basically my thoughts, maybe a bit better K rate, but nothing substantial….very apt comparison i would say.
Swo12bv - February 10, 2012
His minor league K rates
and stuff would suggest that he could be substantially better, I think he won’t get hurt as much as JJ
JHey1212 - February 10, 2012
your entitled to your opinion
But he looks to have good stuff at least from what I’ve seen from him, he did make strides on hiding his curve as the year progressed, and the fast ball and change could each be in the 60-65 range
JHey1212 - February 10, 2012 via mobile
It's not specifically Delgado
It’s often that a guy who doesn’t strike out a ton and pitches a ton of quality innings gets downplayed as a prospect to the point of not even ranking. There would be plenty of opportunities to find high ranked guys who outperformed low ranked guys, sure, but there’s a profile that prospectors and fantasy guys ignore because it’s not a pretty guy that rips through everyone. Instead tons and tons of chances are given to guys who have a little extra zip on their fastball, hoping to make them pitchers, rather than spending the time on pitchers and strengthening them to add a mile or two (which is physically possible, and proven if teams are patient enough to put together the team of actual sports nutrition/exercise folks to maximize the training that can help a pitcher).
biggentleben - February 9, 2012
Fair enough
I’ve stumped before around here and elsewhere about prospect rankings and I do agree with what you’re saying. I personally put more stock in the kid who’s higher on the org ladder who has proven his worth than the guy in A-ball who doesn’t have the track record to prove he won’t be a stud. Unfortunately, I was never consulted on any of the major prospect rankings though, so I have to follow their lead when I discuss them.
theatlfan - February 10, 2012
That’s yet another area of prospecting that confuddles me. I’m an above-average pitcher at AA/AAA, yet I get ranked behind a guy who flashes “stuff” and sub-par production in rookie ball. I never have understood that angle. Once you’ve reached AA/AAA and been successful, you have a better shot of having at least some level of success at the MLB level.
biggentleben - February 10, 2012
THIS
I remember when Michael Ynoa was an IFA everyone was calling him the next big thing ranking him above many established guys.
Jay212033 - February 10, 2012
Because it's all projection
the kid with “stuff” but struggling at a lower level may fix his issues, where the stuff will take over and show. While the steady guy at a higher level may not be as successful when the competition improves, as we’ve seen with countless “AAAA” players. Basically, it’s saying I’ll take the guy with the ability who hasn’t figured it out yet, over the guy who just may not have that ability.
Mr. Sanchez - February 10, 2012
Oh, I'm not talking steady at AA/AAA
I mean like 6/1 k/bb ratio, good HR rates, etc. as a pitcher in AA/AAA against advanced hitters, but not having a 95 mph fastball. I’m talking guys who are excelling in AA/AAA, not just putting up nice baseball card stats.
biggentleben - February 10, 2012
See Jojo Reyes, Chuck James, etc
again, the raw tools trumps guys who may or may not have the ability. Sometimes they work out, but it’s not often.
Mr. Sanchez - February 10, 2012
And neither of those guys spent a full season at AA or AAA. There’s also a lefty issue there. Reyes was nowhere near a 6/1 guy, and James wasn’t in AA/AAA (though his big season overall numbers were close).
biggentleben - February 10, 2012
Also, James had a measure of MLB success before things blew up for him, so he’s not the best example.
biggentleben - February 10, 2012
But that's not true
That’s like saying that Stefan Gartrell has a better chance of becoming a solid big leaguer than a guy lower on the totem pole like Bethancourt or Salcedo or Lipka.
The trick is to predict a player’s ceiling. Young players have talents or tools but undeveloped skills, and young players have trouble with consistency. You can’t teach talent.
Bobby Hill#1 - February 10, 2012
Um, no
It’s like saying I’d prefer Julio Teheran to Gerrit Cole or Dylan Bundy right now. One of the three has done it well at the AA/AAA level, even though they’re all within 2 years in age. I’ll take the guy who’s shown excellence at a higher level over someone who’s not had any exposure to upper levels or hasn’t excelled in the lower levels but has “tools”.
biggentleben - February 10, 2012
As noted, we're in agreement
There’s definitely a balance that you have to strike between upside and realistic expectation, but at least right now, upside seems to far surpass realistic expectation in this world. There is no consensus either which makes it even harder to pin down.
I’ve said I’ve stumped for this here and elsewhere, and I can tell you I was slammed. You have some advantages on me though (i.e., you’re not discussing the merits of strictly 2 Braves’ prospects here), so hopefully you can have a better showing than I did.
theatlfan - February 10, 2012
My 2 cents
2 small points …… I think Law had Teheran ranked around 11 in his top 50 mid-season rankings last year. So really the drop is from around 11 to 18 (and also show that it has more to do with Teheran’s scouting reports from last year than his brief MLB stint). Also, 4 of the players ahead of him this year were from the most recent draft class and weren’t eligible for the list last year.
That being said, I think that he makes a few valid points about Teheran’s development. His k-rate dipped at each level from High-A to Triple-A. And, while his ERA was still very solid (and his K-rate certainly isn’t bad) Law makes his list with a heavy emphasis on upside. Teheran’s still one of the best prospects in baseball (I mean seriously … #18’s not an insult), his declining k-rate and questions about his curve ball do lower his potential ceiling just a hair. He’s almost a lock to be a good starter in the majors, but if he doesn’t improve on his curveball (which he has plenty of time to do … and Keith admits is possible) he’ll have a tough time being a true ace.
mwkoenig - February 9, 2012
I pretty much agree with this. I don’t have a problem with someone ranking Teheran in the back end of the top-20. I’d go higher, but it’s not as if he has him in the middle or back end of the list.
BenDuronio - February 9, 2012
Agreed
Teheran’s lower than expected K-rates are a wee bit alarming. I still think he’ll be a great pitcher, but if he doesn’t start racking up more strikeouts it’s unlikely he’ll be a bona fide ace. Nothing wrong with a great 1 or 2 though.
OrangeBravo - February 9, 2012
you a
JHey1212 - February 9, 2012 via mobile
god danm phone
I hit the send button by accident
JHey1212 - February 9, 2012 via mobile
It's not so much the ranking
as thought the comments combined with his past ranking. Saying he’s farther away, after excelling at AAA at 20? Wouldn’t that mean he’s closer? What did he do this year to drop from a year ago, because his stated reason doesn’t fit.
Mr. Sanchez - February 9, 2012
It makes sense to me.
In a purely literal sense, AAA is closer than AA. However, perhaps he means that Teheran is further from reaching his potential. He was pretty good at AAA and he could probably survive at the MLB level to start the year. But, for him to reach his ceiling of an “ace,” then he has work to do on the curveball and other facets. In 2010, he made progress in leaps and bounds, and maybe his slower pace of development in 2011 changed KLaw’s perception of when Teheran should arrive in the bigs permanently.
OrangeBravo - February 9, 2012
When I saw him his curveball looked good
He didn’t seem to be confident enough in it though. He seemed to only want to throw it when he was ahead and it would half to be ankle high. It definitely flashes plus though
JHey1212 - February 9, 2012
Then say his curveball didn't progress
and he stagnated, but he didn’t say that. He could have said his declining K rate was an issue, but he didn’t say that. He said “he’s farther away than he appeared to be a year ago,” which is just not true.
Mr. Sanchez - February 9, 2012
Translation: “A year ago I thought he was close ready to step in to the majors as a top starter, because of his lack of expected development I no longer think he’s ready to be a top ML starter.”
Lennox - February 9, 2012
Except a year ago he thought his breaking ball was below average
6 months ago he was complaining how it hadn’t progressed enough (contrary to what most scouts seem to be saying). Now the curve doesn’t seem to be as much as a question (at least from what I’ve seen of Law’s comments), yet Teheran is falling further down the list?
nixa37 - February 10, 2012
Sure.
I’ve only been fortunate enough to see him pitch in person once, so I can’t offer much personal insight. However, progression of the curveball is far from out of the question, and he may turn into an ace yet. It just might take longer than everyone thought a year ago.
OrangeBravo - February 9, 2012
Bored Fans...
Me included. I read every single statement. Who really cares what this guy thinks about which of our top prospects is farther along. I don’t think any of us really know. I was with Teheran at first because of all the hipe. I’m currently a Delgado fan. I saw what he did when they brought him up and he really looks ready. It looked to me like he has pin point control and a load of confinence. Vizcaino has huge cojones and rude stuff. AND, to be honest if I were a gambler, I’d put my money on Medlin. BUT, none of us really know. We’ll have to let it play out. For now we’re so bored waiting on the season to start we’ll go on and on and on about what some guy named Law thinks of our guys. Oh well, we can alway appeal.
AtlantaMelo - February 9, 2012
Dislike ESPN.
Dislike Keith Law.
jrodisjust2cool - February 9, 2012
They all seem so biased .
bravesdude - February 10, 2012
somewhere...a kitten just died...
OrangeBravo - February 10, 2012 via iPhone app
LOL!!!
And Podvader strikes again…
biggentleben - February 10, 2012
This is just anither case of bias,and someone who enjoys going against reality (see Skip Bayless for example)
If that is not the case then, Keith really must have gotten these guys mixed up!!
1st.) “Delgado had the least progression last year” The argument can easily, EASILY be made that Delgado had the most improved season out of the big three.
2.) Teheran is a “projection and stuff” talent pitcher. Teheran is far more ahead of Vizzy in terms of his pitch progression and control. Yes, Teheran struggled at times, when starting, with his fastball control, but J-Teh’s secondary stuff was nasty (see changeup and curve) and much more consistent then Vizzy’s (but still inconsistent in his own right.) I would really say that J-Teh’s lack of command was more attributed to nerves than anything else, and Law is once again a moron thinking 6 other minor league pitchers are better prospects then JT.
3.) Vizzy….He says that Vizzy has an outstanding reportoire of pitches and control. Yes, Vizzy does have a plus fastball and a plus hammer, but the reason people see him in the pen is due to his lack of a consistent third and fourth pitch. Vizzy’s hammer is nasty, absolutely filthy, but the reason is came about very rare was the fact he could not throw it with any cconsistency whatsoever. If Vizzy can get his 12-6 under control and can throw it even 80% of its effectiveness, then I see Vizzy becoming one of the nastiest pen guys next to Kimbrel, and Everyday Johnny’s. Then the argument could really be made that the Braves own and possess 3 of the nastiest arms in the ML’s. If he learns to throw it at maximum efficiency and effectiveness, with Kimbrel’s Fastball, Johnny’s Sinker, and Vizzy’s 12-6 hammer, you could argue the Braves would possess the #1, #2,and one of the top 5 nastiest pitches in the GAME.
Also, another point about Delgado, “Blah, blah, blah, I see him as a future Bullpen guy, or a #4 starter.”
Did Law even watch Delgado pitch last year?? You know when the youngster was thrown into the middle of a pennant chase, and PITCHED his way into a couple of BRAVES wins?? Delgado arguably looked the most polished out of all of the Braves trio, and that is not saying he will be the best, just that the fact is he was the best and most effective last year. Delgado looked like a harder throwing version of JJ out there. Unafraid of contact, and very mature beyond his age, Delgado reared back and fired everytime with a mix and match of mostly three pitches, sometimes four, and he did so with consistency and success!!
I understand the whole concept of projection, talent, ability to grow, etc. when it comes to prospects, BUT LAW is an idiot, and I’ve come to the conclusion he did not watch the Braves last year nor see the Braves trika or whatever he calls them, pitch.
And he even put Lipka, ahead of Salcey?? Really? I could see before the season, but I would really have a hard time doing that…..but after the season Salcey had, compared to Lipka, and with Salcey’s talent, and room to grow and improve….he still puts Lipka ahead of him…….I WOULD LOVE to hear his reasoning for that
chicagobullies - February 10, 2012 via mobile
He's just one guy who calls it like he sees it...
He’s usually more or less correct with his predictions about players, too. But that doesn’t mean he’s right (or wrong) 100% of the time, or that he has some bias against the Braves or anyone else. I agree that his assessments tend to be a little on the pessimistic side, but I think that’s more because he focuses on the things that could prevent the player from reaching his ceiling, as opposed to gushing about how great they COULD be.
There’s a tendency for fans to overvalue their own players and prospects (ask a Yankees fan how good any member of their AA squad is, and see what I mean), and Braves fans are as guilty of that as anyone else (except Yankees fans… they turn it into an art form). I have every bit of faith that each of Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino will develop into excellent starting pitchers, but you have to acknowledge the possibility they don’t, and that there are things currently holding them back from superstar potential. And I’m not sure how anyone can look at every single one of our “best” positional prospects and not see the glaring lack of plate discipline. They’re all free-swinging hackers, and most don’t even show much power. Ask Frenchy how easy it is to learn to take a walk.
Also, Keith Law’s said he tends not to rank relief pitching prospects simply because they don’t provide near the level of value as relievers that starters or hitters do. I think he only had one on his whole top 100 this year (and nowhere near the top). That’s why Kimbrel wasn’t ever on there.
FineHamAbounds - February 10, 2012
they actually did a big study on this a whil eback and if my memory serves me correctly , Law’s predictions are the worst. In terms of value his picks were way off.
again its possible I am mistaken and I have not been able to turn up that research, I think maybe project prospect did that work.
Swo12bv - February 10, 2012
I’d be really interested to see that, if you can find it. I’d like to pare down my prospect evaluations to those which, you know, tend to be correct.
FineHamAbounds - February 12, 2012
Sure sounds like Law
is really underestimating Delgado’s grit tool. If you don’t like his rankings, then fine. But don’t pretend like 35 big league innings should have bearing on a prospect ranking. There seems to be an inordinate amount of groupthink occurring in this discussion. It’s ok to dissent from the standard thought train. Just because everybody thinks something doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s correct. As for the teeth gnashing over six pitchers being ranked ahead of Teheran, it’s not something i personally see, but the argument can be made. Moore is far and away the best pitching prospect in the minors, but Teheran is certainly in the 1A tier of starters. I wouldn’t get upset over any of the other five pitchers ranking ahead of him. You say that Klaw is biased..who the in the name of hades for? I sincerely doubt he possesses any sort of grudge or dislike of Atlanta that makes him rank their prospects lower.
OrangeBravo - February 10, 2012
I really value the grit tool heavily, maybe I overvalue it- which is why I think I overrate guys like Medlen, JJ, and I see Delgado joining those two.
Delgado will be, at worst, an innings-eater who can flash out occasional ASG-worthy seasons. Mark my words.
Broccoman - February 12, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Talking Chop to post a comment.