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Talking Chop

OT (kindof): 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

These are my 2012 rankings by position. Feel free to ask any questioning you may have about the order folks are listed in. I have all players according to preseason ESPN fantasy positional eligibility, and they are ranked at the primary position where they would rank highest based on overall rankings. Enjoy!

Star-divide

Catchers

1. Brian McCann, Atl
2. Mike Napoli, Tex
3. Carlos Santana, Cle
4. Matt Wieters, Bal
5. Joe Mauer, Min
6. Miguel Montero, Ari
7. Buster Posey, SF
8. Jesus Montero, Sea
9. Alex Avila, Det
10. Wilson Ramos, Was

Overrated, not top 10: Geovany Soto, ChC
Underrated, not top 10: Yadi Molina, StL
Prospects: Ryan Lavarnway, Bos; Salvador Perez, KC; Devin Mesoraco, Cin; Hank Conger, LAA; Travis d'Arnaud, Tor

First Base/DH

1. Miguel Cabrera, Det
2. Albert Pujols, LAA
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Bos
4. Joey Votto, Cin
5. Mark Teixeira, NYY
6. Prince Fielder, Det
7. Eric Hosmer, KC
8. Paul Konerko, ChW
9. David Ortiz, Bos
10. Freddie Freeman, Atl

Overrated, not top 10: Ryan Howard, Phi
Underrated, not top 10: Justin Smoak, Sea
Prospects: Brandon Belt, SF; Paul Goldschmidt, Ari; Mat Gamel, Mil; Anthony Rizzo, ChC; Yonder Alonso, SD

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano, NYY
2. Dustin Pedroia, Bos
3. Ian Kinsler, Tex
4. Chase Utley, Phi
5. Dan Uggla, Atl
6. Brandon Phillips, Cin
7. Rickie Weeks, Mil
8. Ben Zobrist, TB
9. Howie Kendrick, LAA
10. Dustin Ackley, sea

Overrated, not top 10: Danny Espinosa, Was
Underrated, not top 10: Kelly Johnson, Tor
Prospects: Jason Kipnis, Cle; Johnny Giavotella, KC; Jose Altuve, Hou

Third Base

1. Jose Bautista, Tor
2. Adrian Beltre, Tex
3. Evan Longoria, TB
4. David Wright, NYM
5. Ryan Zimmerman, Was
6. Alex Rodriguez, NYY
7. Kevin Youkilis, Bos
8. Aramis Ramirez, Mil
9. Pablo Sandoval, SF
10. Michael Young, Tex

Overrated, not top 10: David Freese, StL
Underrated, not top 10: Chipper Jones, Atl
Prospects: Brett Lawrie, Tor; Lonnie Chisenhall, Cle

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki, Col
2. Hanley Ramirez, Mia
3. Jose Reyes, Mia
4. Elvis Andrus, Tex
5. Starlin Castro, ChC
6. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle
7. Jimmy Rollins, Phi
8. Alexei Ramirez, ChW
9. Jhonny Peralta, Det
10. Derek Jeter, NYY

Overrated, not top 10: JJ Hardy, Bal
Underrated, not top 10: Yunel Escobar. Tor
Prospects: Dee Gordon, LAD; Tyler Pastornicky, Atl; Jose Iglesias, Bos; Zack Cozart, Cin

Outfield

1. Matt Kemp, LAD
2. Ryan Braun, Mil (assuming his suspension is overturned - he drops out of the top 25 if it is upheld)
3. Justin Upton, Ari
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Col
6. Andrew McCutchen, Pit
7. Curtis Granderson, NYY
8. Matt Holliday, StL
9. Carl Crawford, Bos
10. Mike Stanton, Mia
11. Hunter Pence, Phi
12. Josh Hamilton, Tex
13. Jay Bruce, Cin
14. Nelson Cruz, Tex
15. Shin-Soo Choo, Cle
16. Alex Gordon. KC
17. Michael Bourn, Atl
18. Shane Victorino, Phi
19. Adam Jones, Bal
20. Corey Hart, Mil
21. Ichiro Suzuki, Sea
22. Mike Morse, Was
23. Desmond Jennings, TB
24. Drew Stubbs, Cin
25. BJ Upton, TB

Overrated, not top 25: Michael Cuddyer, Col
Underrated, not top 25: Chris Young, Ari
Prospects: Mike Trout, LAA; Ryan Kalish, Bos; Dayan Viciedo, ChW

Starting Pitcher

1. Justin Verlander, Det
2. Roy Halladay, Phi
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
4. Cliff Lee, Phi
5. Tim Lincecum, SF
6. Felix Hernandez, Sea
7. CC Sabathia, NYY
8. Cole Hamels, Phi
9. Jered Weaver, LAA
10. Dan Haren, LAA
11. David Price, TB
12. Jon Lester, Bos
13. Zack Greinke, Mil
14. Yovani Gallardo, Mil
15. Matt Cain, SF
16. CJ Wilson, LAA
17. Tommy Hanson, Atl
18. James Shields, TB
19. Ian Kennedy, Ari
20. Jordan Zimmerman, Was
21. Ricky Romero, Tor
22. Michael Pineda, NYY
23. Dan Hudson, Ari
24. Josh Beckett, Bos
25. Madison Bumgarner, SF

Overrated, not top 25: Mat Latos, Cin
Underrated, not top 25: Ervin Santana, LAA
Prospects: Matt Moore, TB; Julio Teheran, Atl; Randall Delgado, Atl; Simon Castro, ChW; Drew Pomeranz, Col; Jacob Turner, Det; Liam Hendriks, Min; Jarrod Parker, Oak; Yu Darvish, Tex

Relief Pitcher

1. Craig Kimbrel, Atl
2. Drew Storen, Was
3. Mariano Rivera, NYY
4. Jon Papelbon, Phi
5. John Axford, Mil
6. Brian Wilson, SF
7. Ryan Madson, Cin
8. Heath Bell, Mia
9. Jose Valverde, Det
10. Andrew Bailey, Bos

Overrated, not top 10: Rafael Betancourt, Col
Underrated, not top 10: Carlos Marmol, ChC
Prospects: Addison Reed, ChW; Arodys Vizcaino, Atl

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

0 recs  |  23 comments

Comments

Good rankings, but let's be real

Howard is a better fantasy player than Freeman.

Some players I’m really high on are: Cano, Longoria, Bumgarner, Beachy, Desmond Jennings, Lawrie, and Freese.

I think he is taking into account...

…that Howard will miss up to three months at the start of the season.

A healthy Howard

absolutely ranks over Freeman. There are major ranges in the amount of time that Howard will miss, and the surprising lack of true depth at 1B would weigh a guy who will start the season fairly heavy for me.

For me, Freese is on the overrated list not because I don’t think he’ll perform when he’s healthy. The issue is tremendously based on the popularity that he will get after his postseason heroics, but he’s a player whose only consistent statistic thus far in his MLB career is his significant DL days. You’re going to have to pay a top 10 price to get Freese this year, and I just don’t see him paying that back.

A healthy Howard absolutely ranks over Freeman. There are major ranges in the amount of time that Howard will miss, and the surprising lack of true depth at 1B would weigh a guy who will start the season fairly heavy for me.

For me, Freese is on the overrated list not because I don’t think he’ll perform when he’s healthy. The issue is tremendously based on the popularity that he will get after his postseason heroics, but he’s a player whose only consistent statistic thus far in his MLB career is his significant DL days. You’re going to have to pay a top 10 price to get Freese this year, and I just don’t see him paying that back.

Not sure about Mike Morse and BJ Upton in the top 25 for OFers.

Outfield

After 21, the outfielders are kind of a jumbled mess. Guys like Beltran, Hunter, Morrison, Markakis, Hunter, Ethier, Melky, Gardner, Werth, Crisp, Prado, Willingham, Heyward, Austin Jackson, etc. all could easily be a top 25 player. I went for upside toward the end of that list.

I love you giving the Braves some love here...

…but I can’t see any justification for putting McCann at the top of the catchers list. Santana and Napoli have an unfair advantage—-they pretty much play every day because they don’t catch all the time or even often—-and that is an advantage that McCann just can’t make up.

I weigh surity heavily

I understand the reasoning, but McCann has been a top 5 every catcher for each season. There’s inconsistent performance that Napoli brings (a .264 career hitter that hit .320 last season) that I don’t want to overpay for, and Santana has only one season at the major league level that also provided wildly inconsistent. I understand that McCann had a rough last two months of 2011, but his long range track record says solid BA, excellent power, and very good run/RBI production. I really like 1-3 all very close at catcher, but I chose consistency over risk there.

Beachy is the sleeper pick — his strikeout totals alone should get him onto anybody’s short list. If he gets enough offense to give him a few more W’s, he should be a great fantasy choice.

Absolutely

I try not to overrate Braves, but I LOVE Beachy.

How is Posey 7th at Catcher? I guess if you are considering the fact that there may be lingering effects of the injury, then it makes a little more sense. And Wieters has yet to prove he’s capable of reaching the potential that he is supposed to be able to reach. I think there is a good chance he has a break out year, but I wouldn’t pick him over Posey.

Wieters was a top-5 fantasy catcher, depending on your format, in 2011. He made big moves forward in 2011. Of qualified catchers in 2011, he ranked 6th in batting average, 3rd in runs, 5th in home runs, and 8th in RBI. In fact, his 2011 is very, very similar to McCann’s.

Posey before his injury was showing a major sophomore slump in some eyes, but in many’s eyes, he was playing back to where his more expected level was. His 2010 numbers were odd to most projection folks in that no one had Posey as a 25 homer player. 15ish with solid average, absolutely. His production to start 2011 showed a much worse plate discipline and power that would put him more in that 12-16 homer power range than 25. Posey’s 2010 was driven primarily by two tremendously hot months. Anyone remember Jeff Francoeur? I was lower on Posey than most last year for that same reason. If I’m wrong, I’ll correct that in the future, but for now I would hesitate moving Posey up any.

Posey’s 2010 was driven primarily by two tremendously hot months.

It was more like three tremendously hot weeks from July 5 to July 25. That was my major gripe with him winning ROY that year; he had so few plate appearances that his overall numbers were hyper-inflated by a short, hot streak. I don’t mean to rehash the whole debate, but Posey’s OPS through July 4 was .742 and from July 26 on was .762. Basically, 90% of his season was .750 OPS hitting.

Yes and no

Batting average, absolutely. However, his September power production was also way beyond his other months. So his fantasy overall numbers were subject to two extreme months.

Yeah, I know you’re referring to him strictly in a fantasy context. I was just throwing a fit over the injustices of the baseball world.

I don’t exactly agree. Yes his power numbers were far higher than expected, but he was a rookie who had one really cold month, then over the last three months of the season had a OPS of .905. Freeman had an extremely hot July as well, but no one is saying that makes him any less valuable or discredits the season he had. Both of them were rookies who managed to hold their own through the season, including really good success against lefties.

Posey’s OPS’s for 2010:

June: .630
July: 1.165
August: .754
Sept/Oct: .818

Freeman’s season was mainly hindered by an incredibly low BABIP in September as he had solid deltas in September (.079 OBP~ and .140 SLG~) with a .254 BABIP for a guy who normally has owned a very solid .320+ BABIP all the way along in pro ball. He had a starting month and closing month that were not super, but he was a consistent hitter from May 1 all the way through September 1, which would have been the entirety of Posey’s 2010 plate appearances.

I’m not leaving Posey off the list, I’m just saying injury risk and performance risk has enough drive to me to not rank him above the guys ahead of him until he proves differently. I’m typically risk-averse at the top end of my rankings.

Fair enough, I mean they are your rankings of course. I will say that Posey did have a massive drop of in BABIP in September, around a .120 point drop.

It will not surprise me at all to see any of 5-9 leapfrog into the top 2-3 for 2013 if all goes well.

Looks like you think Mauer will rebound, at least some. Why?

Not so much rebound

As I think he’ll play 130-150 games with 1B/DH to take some strain off of him catching. With that, he won’t be a 30 homer guy or anything, but he should be a high average hitter like always with good run production.

Wieters was a top-5 fantasy catcher, depending on your format, in 2011. He made big moves forward in 2011. Of qualified catchers in 2011, he ranked 6th in batting average, 3rd in runs, 5th in home runs, and 8th in RBI. In fact, his 2011 is very, very similar to McCann’s.

Posey before his injury was showing a major sophomore slump in some eyes, but in many’s eyes, he was playing back to where his more expected level was. His 2010 numbers were odd to most projection folks in that no one had Posey as a 25 homer player. 15ish with solid average, absolutely. His production to start 2011 showed a much worse plate discipline and power that would put him more in that 12-16 homer power range than 25. Posey’s 2010 was driven primarily by two tremendously hot months. Anyone remember Jeff Francoeur? I was lower on Posey than most last year for that same reason. If I’m wrong, I’ll correct that in the future, but for now I would hesitate moving Posey up any.

Connection issues

Giving me problems today/tonight, so I apologize for the double posts in replies.

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