The original Making the Team Meter (MTM) returns for its seventh year as your one-stop shop for finding out which Atlanta Braves players will break camp with the team, and which ones are headed back to the minors. Throughout spring training I'll track the progress of each player who does not yet have a guaranteed spot on the opening day roster.
This year, like last year, the MTM will be initially broken down into two parts -- one for pitchers and one for hitters. Today's installment will cover all the pitchers in camp who might have a chance at making the team. To begin with we'll assume that there is a group that has already made the team:
Starters: Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, and Brandon Beachy (1 spot available, but with Hudson potentially not ready to start the season, as well as questions surrounding the health of Hanson and Jurrjens, there could be as many as 4 spots available, but more than likely there will be 2 spots available)
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, and WOW, those are the only 3 I'm going to say have safe spots in the pen (4 spots available)
With all these remaining spots in the rotation and the pen, this will be a really fun spring to watch as the battles for each spot on the roster unfold.
| Player, Position | Trend | Last Week | Roster Status | Notes and Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairo Asencio, RHP |
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The pitcher formerly known as Luis Valdez is at a crossroads in his Braves career. He is out of options, and will need to make the 25-man roster out of spring training. He may be ready after a dominating performance this winter in the DWL & the Caribbean Series, holding opposing batters to a .172 average, & converting all 13 of his save opportunities. |
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| Luis Avilan, LHP |
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Avilan spent last year in AA, & split his time between starting & relieving. He's not a name many Braves fans have heard, even the ones who follow prospects closely, as he's never really wowed with the stats at any level. But he's got a great power arm, & if the Braves didn't protect him on the 40-man, he may have been a Rule 5 pick. |
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| Jaye Chapman, RHP |
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Drafted in the 16th round way back in 2005, Chapman has slowly worked his way through the Atlanta system, & finally had a breakout year last year in Gwinnett. He'll get a look at a bullpen spot, but others are ahead of him. |
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| Erik Cordier, RHP |
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The perennially injured Cordier was slated for AFL duty last fall, but because of injury he only made it into two games. That will always be the question with Cords, "can he stay healthy." If he can, his power arm could play well in middle relief. |
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| Randall Delgado, RHP |
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Randall is one of those guys who generates a lot of debate, both among scouts and stat-heads. He's very Jair Jurrjens like, with less control and more velocity. He'll compete and push Teheran, but he will likely start the year in Gwinnett, where he could use more refinement. |
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| Yohan Flande, LHP |
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Nothing more than depth at triple-A, either in the bullpen or rotation, though valuable as a swing-man. |
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| Robert Fish, LHP |
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The Braves Rule 5 draft pick, their first one in decades, is also a two-time Rule 5 selection, having been drafted last year, so he should know what it takes to make a club out of spring training. He's got a live arm, but control has always been his problem. If he is anywhere close to decent, I wonder if the Braves will opt to keep him; should be an interesting story to watch this spring. |
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| Cory Gearrin, RHP |
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The non-Aussi side-armer, Cory will get every chance to make the club, but there is a lot of competition for the last few bullpen spots. He doesn't have much left to prove in the minors, but he does need to work on limiting walks in the Majors. With options left he could end up in Gwinnett. |
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| Sean Gilmartin, LHP |
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Last year's first round pick by Atlanta out of FSU, Gilmartin will get a taste of the big leagues this spring before likely being among those in the first round of cuts. No real chance to make the club, but this is his chance to impress the Atlanta coaching staff. |
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| J.J. Hoover, RHP |
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Hoover is a guy who should have been called up last year for bullpen help. He was lights out after moving to that role late in the year, as his power stuff plays up in short stints. He can also be a workhorse of a starter, so it will be interesting to see if the club keeps him in relief or moves him back to the rotation. He wasn't quite that sharp in the AFL, so the Braves could want him to get more refinement at Gwinnett this year. |
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| Dusty Hughes, LHP |
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Lower down on the lefty depth chart, but with plenty of Major League experience, he is an interesting NRI. He's light on size and velocity, but uses his off-speed pitches very well. I wonder if he's a guy who will benefit from being around EOF and Venters. He apparently has a promising slider. |
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| Cristhian Martinez, RHP |
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The lisp is out of options, so he needs to make the team or risk being waived. As a guy who can go long in relief, he should be a good bet to make the club as a swing-man. His teammates really like him, and he showed a lot of growth last year throughout the season. He put in some good relief work in the DWL this winter. |
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| Kris Medlen, RHP |
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Kris is not on here necessarily because there is a question about whether or not he will make the team -- he will make the team. He's on here so we can track where he'll make the team. Will he be in the bullpen or will they let him compete for a rotation spot? |
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| Mike Minor, LHP |
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The odds-on favorite to win the fifth starter's job out of spring training, of course, he was the favorite last year to win the fifth starter's job out of spring training. Another year of maturity and experience under his belt, he should give the Braves a much needed lefty starter. |
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| Peter Moylan, RHP |
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The Awesome Aussi is back with the team, but on a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. He's coming off a 2011 marred by back and shoulder surgery. The Braves want to make sure he's healthy before giving him a roster spot, but Petah claims he'll be ready to go when the bell rings. Spring will tell... |
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| Todd Redmond, RHP |
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The off-again, on-again 40th man on the 40-man is on again. He has shown the last two years at Gwinnett that he can be a workhorse starter. While not really in the mix for Atlanta, he represents good depth in the system at starting pitcher. He didn't get much of a chance last year in spring training, so we'll see if he gets more of a chance this year. |
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| Jason Rice, RHP |
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This is the NRI pitcher I'm most excited about. A converted catcher, Rice was traded, waived, waived, and DFA'ed last year, but he should be ready to contribute in a Major League pen. He's a short guy with a good fastball when he can command it. He had a good winter this year, playing in the Mexican league, and should get a long look for the bullpen. |
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| Adam Russell, RHP |
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A tall hard-throwing reliever with several years of Major League experience. He's got a good shot at making the club because of his experience, though he needs to control his walks. |
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| Zeke Spruill, RHP |
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He's in that second tier of Braves starting pitching prospects behind Delgado & Gilmartin. He's in camp to get a taste of the Majors and soak up some knowledge from the vets, and not really in the mix for a 25-man roster spot. |
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| Julio Teheran, RHP |
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He will be one of the most watched arms this spring. With Tim Hudson potentially starting the year on the disabled list, Teheran is the favorite to fill in for a few starts early in the year. He may also push Minor in the competition for the fifth starter's spot. |
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| Anthony Varvaro, RHP |
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A hard-throwing middle reliever, Varvaro showed some great stuff in his short stint in Atlanta last year. He was arguably the most effective reliever the Braves recalled from Gwinnett during the season. He's got a good chance of making the team, and should get a long look this spring. |
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| Arodys Vizcaino, RHP |
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The jury is still split on what the Braves will ultimately do with Vizzy. They could send him back to the minors and put him into the Gwinnett rotation, & he would likely end up being a top-of-the-rotation starter, but their more immediate need is for someone to pick up the innings when O'Ventbrel can't pitch, and as 'Rody showed last year he is capable of being a dominant shut-down reliever. He may still be a bit green, but if the Braves keep him in the pen, he could be a very valuable asset in relief... or he could eventually be a top-of-the-rotation starter... |
| Arrow Key: |
|---|
| = Chance of making the team is good. |
| = Chance of making the team is bad. |
| = Chance of making the team is slightly better than 50-50. |
| = Chance of making the team is slightly worse than 50-50. |
The hitters report to spring training this Friday, their MTM will be posted then. Next pitchers MTM likely early next week.
0 recs | 83 comments
I never really ever know Jairo Ascencio by any other name...
Considering that bullpen spots are locked by…Kimbrel, Venters, EOF, and Medlen…it’s really a race to fill that last 3 spots. I’m guessing the favorites are…
Christian Martinez (out of options)
Jairo Ascencio (out of options)
Anthony Varvaro
TBuzz - February 20, 2012
Medlen could easily be a starter until Hudson returns though
and if I’m not mistaken, the plan is to keep him stretched out in spring and treat him as if he’s a starting option.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
I thought having either JT or MM...
was the plan for 5th starter?
TBuzz - February 20, 2012
If Hudson is out
Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor, and …..
I could see the choice being Medlen, to let Teheran “continue his development” (aka delay service time as was done to Hanson).
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
I could see them giving Hoover a crack at it...
Particularly if Hudson isn’t ready by the first of May.
Cornutt - February 21, 2012
I know I want Vizzy and Meds back there. But I have no clue on the others. I could see it being Moylan, Gearrin, Chapman, Varvaro, Martinez, Asencio, or Fish.
BravesRaleigh - February 20, 2012
So apparently Hudson is going to miss at least the first month of the season
That means one of the kids will have a fairly significant role. Luckily the schedule for the first month of the season is cake. Lots of Mets, Pirates, and Astros.
ATLandUNC - February 20, 2012
So could we put Vizzy in the pen and Meds in the rotation
for the first month, than move Vizzy to AAA, and put Medlen in the pen when Hudson comes back. This would help to limit Vizzy’s innings, it would help the major league club, then we would put a potential ToR guy in AAA so that he can work on his off-speed offerings and become that ToR guy rather than being our 5th reliever for a year.
JHey1212 - February 20, 2012
My druthers...
If the Braves are going to put Vizcaino in AAA eventually, they should do it immediately. With all the NRIs and no-option relievers, the team should be able to find someone to use for a month without wasting Vizcaino’s service time. An extra month to evaluate their performance and they can make a decision from there…
I don’t think it’s at all beneficial to shuffle Vizcaino around. Make a concrete plan for him, and follow through with it as much as possible.
-C
cthabeerman - February 20, 2012
good point
JHey1212 - February 20, 2012
So Kimbrel, Venters, O'Flaherty, and Medlen are set..
My favorites are Ascencio, Martinez, and Gearrin.
jrodisjust2cool - February 20, 2012
I feel like Martinez is almost a lock
It would be really unusual to see a guy go from throwing 70+ innings one season to cut the next year.
Medlen is making the team one way or another, though I’d still like to see him get his chance as a starter. The Braves probably don’t think the same way, though.
Bronn - February 20, 2012
I'm a person that relies on experience
so hopefully I’ll see Meds starting for the first month.
jrodisjust2cool - February 20, 2012
How much has he pitched since getting healthy? I didn’t think Meds got much work last season.
Chipper Pwns - February 20, 2012
yeah, not that much work. hopefully he’s here to stay and be healthy all year long.
jrodisjust2cool - February 20, 2012
Well, he's got 6 weeks to get ready
That seems like plenty of time for him to get ready, and he’ll get some live game working starting is just a couple of weeks.
Bronn - February 20, 2012
One inning? But it was a super good one!
SuperNewb - February 20, 2012
He's been so strong the last two years
Martinez has earned his spot.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
I love this series.
It’s like an advent calendar for sports.
Chipper Pwns - February 20, 2012
I believe very strongly that the whole picture will change when the Braves trade Jurrjens sooner than later and that a few of the names netioned above will be gone with Jair as well. Think about it; if the Braves dealt Jair, Hoover and Spruill to another team wouldn’t the said receiving team not get a fusion of an upgrade to their staffs on the whole? The key is to get a leftfielder who can move over to CF comfortably if Bourne leaves after the season (which I hope he doesn’t as he is in the elite of leadoff men in the game). Thus, the Orioles and Pirates (Adam Jones or McCutcheon, should put their thinking caps on and get ready. In addition we should retain Prado for when Chipper goes down.
The Rap - February 20, 2012
Sorry to be a nag but...
Did you really have to put all of that in the subject area?
SuperNewb - February 20, 2012
more importantly
did you say anything new? i mean, isn’t that what we were talking about in July?
JoelGuzman'sScout - February 20, 2012
I didn’t actually read it because I was annoyed it was all in bold.
SuperNewb - February 20, 2012
I shall be rooting fondly for CMart
As always!
SuperNewb - February 20, 2012
"Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, and WOW"
Am I the only one who doesn’t know who “WOW” is?
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
WOW...
never disappoints
TBuzz - February 20, 2012
You are not helping.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Hey guys, this guy doesn’t know who WOW is…
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
[inserts snarky comment about how Oregon vs. the SEC]
does anyone feel like giving the non-smart ass answer, since apparently I AM the only who doesn’t know.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Low blow ignored, but I think it was him starting a list of the guaranteed bullpen spots, then “wow! only three!” type of deal. Side note, I’m from Gwinnett, my whole family went to UGA, so I still got lots of love for them! And to Hell with Boise.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
We can definitely agree there on that last line
and it’s a shame this went by the wayside.
http://www.georgiadogs.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092710aah.html
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Oh most definitely, that would have been so fun. But we still have a chance to meet in the NCG this year.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
indeed.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
WOW is even better than CASH
SuperNewb - February 20, 2012
in the treatment of Vizcaino
Is there any reason he couldn’t pitch a year or two in the pen, and then move to the rotation when there are openings? I realize he may be discouraged from using as many pitches in the pen, and he wont build experience in facing the same batters in the same game, but is there any material reason why it isn’t possible. What I’m asking is, is it a terminal decision? In two years he’ll be be starting his age 23 season. Beachy and Minor were older last year.
What I’m saying is, in the next two years Delgado, Teheran, Beachy and Minor will all be on the scene, and we’ll get a chance to see how Hanson’s shoulder is doing, Hudson will retire, and this bubble of elite braves pitching prospects may have passed. Maybe not, maybe we keep building them, but if the bubble passes, Couldn’t a 23 yo vizcaino whose been pitching to major leaguers and has the pitches to start all the sudden become our best starting pitching prospect? Maybe we wont need that pitching, maybe he will be our set up man by then, maybe he will have been traded as a reliever or because someone else wants to try him as a starter, but is there any reason he couldn’t take 2 years of relieving experience and at 23 become a starter again?
willlinn - February 20, 2012
I'm sorry to mention this as a Braves fan....
The Cardinals had a lot of success doing this with Adam Wainwright. The Rangers are trying this with Feliz. The Red Sox are trying this with Bard. We could do it with Vizcaino, but he needs to develop his change more to be a TOR starter.
rxadam - February 20, 2012
Hopefully we’ve gotten over the JD Drew trade by now…
SuperNewb - February 20, 2012
You guys at least used Wainwright as a closer
People here, and I believe some in the organization as well, want to use Vizcaino as a fourth/fifth reliever, and he’s not as polished a pitcher as guys like Wainwright or David Price. It would be a waste.
Seriously, arbitration clock. Five years from now we can get a season of him as a starter, or we can have this season where he’s the fourth best arm in the pen. I’d rather have the latter.
Bronn - February 20, 2012
You say fourth/fifth reliever, but if he starts the season in the pen it would probably be to split time with O’Flaherty in the 7th or even Venters in the 8th. He won’t become some forgotten man out there.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
So he's reliever 3.5, if that holds up
He maxes out at what, 50 innings? How much better are those 50 innings than they would otherwise have been to justify starting his arbitration clock and pausing his development as a starter?
Bronn - February 20, 2012
I don’t care about starting his arbitration clock, and neither does the team. If he is the best option for the position, which he very well could be, then they should give him that shot. Also, we can’t guarantee that O’Flaherty will be near as productive as he was last year, so having a guy like Vizcaino back there could be huge.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Yeah,
I’m guessing the team cares about his arbitration clock. That doesn’t mean that they won’t use him as a reliever, but you can be damn sure they’re factoring it into their thoughts.
I agree with Bronn and Sanchez. It would be different if they were thinking about him as a starter, but limiting his innings right now to under 90 would hinder him as a starter going forward. Just as the lack of development time might hinder him.
BrockSamson - February 20, 2012
Edit
“if they were thinking about him as a closer”
BrockSamson - February 20, 2012
If they want him to be available as a starter this year, which is very improbable, then they can have him throw more side sessions and/or simulated games to keep his stamina up, but they have no reason to do that. They have the rest of the big four ready this year, plus Jurrjens and Hanson, Medlen can start if needed, and Gilmartin will probably be ready at some point in the 2013 season. No reason to force a guy with known elbow issues to over work himself in Gwinnett when he can help out in the bullpen at a much lower health risk.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Health risk is debatable
some feel that the set pattern as a starter, where you have a routine, is healthier than the maybe, maybe not, 3 days in a row followed by a week off inconsistency you get as a reliever. Smoltz was among those that felt starting was the better method in terms of health. And how many relievers do you see go down? Not as many starters in my unscientific, possibly wrong top of the head lazy guess.
And on top of that, none of the big 4, not Hanson, not Teheran, no one, has his stuff and potential excellence as a starter. And you mention the starting options, but there are just as many if not more (considering you can use several starters out of the pen but not relievers) for the bullpen.
And then there’s the arb clock thing, for a team that knows it HAS to be smart financially considering the TV deal and other monetary limitations.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
How long do you leave him down there? There’s no guarantee that we can move Jurrjens or Hanson, and Hudson won’t be going anywhere soon. I haven’t seen anyone say Vizcaino has a greater potential than Teheran or Delgado, so I have no idea where you’re getting that…
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Most all scouting reports say Vizcaino has better stuff
and he gets discounted in the discussion only because he’s been behind them in the organizational ladder and had health issues keeping him from getting their consistent innings. His superior stuff = greater upside.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
And some do say it...
http://www.talkingchop.com/2012/2/9/2787274/keith-laws-top-10-2012-atlanta-braves-prospects
(where Vizcaino was the top prospect because of that stuff and upside)
or here, with Vizcaino above Delgado…
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/#list=atl
Or here, again with Vizcaino above Delgado, and again called an “elite arm” with only durability concerns
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/12/2485724/atlanta-braves-top-20-prospects-for-2012
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
"I don’t care about starting his arbitration clock, and neither does the team"
See Hanson, Tommy. Disagree.
And so what if O’Flaherty isn’t as effective. We’ve got similar quality options in Medlen who can more than get the job done effectively. And Martinez. And Varvaro. And Hoover. And Moylan. And Gearrin. And Valdez. Meanwhile no one in the entire organization has his upside as a starter, so you can have a dime a dozen, or something special.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
That’s one case. See Freeman, Heyward, Furcal even. And can you tell me that Any of those guys will be BETTER than Vizcaino this year? They may get the job done, but this team has never left the best guy for the job out of the mix.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
All of those guys
were competing for starting spots on the team where we really didn’t have other alternatives. Completely different.
BrockSamson - February 20, 2012
Position players are different than pitchers
where you only have one starter per position, but several pitchers on a staff.
No, I don’t have a crystal ball, so I can’t tell you they’ll be better than Vizcaino, but you can’t tell me he’ll be better than them either. His numbers last year out of the pen weren’t that strong, and as Brock says, the difference between him, and all those names is that they are all seemingly destined for a relief role and none (except maybe Hoover) have the ability to start here long term.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
ok, brock says something different, I should have read him fully instead of assuming as I typed
but the fact remains, he’s the only one with the potential to be an elite starter, and other than maybe Hoover (for another team though if it happens), is the only one with starter potential at all. And arb clocks aren’t the issue with them if they reach their full potential like they would be with Vizcaino if he reaches his potential.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Still nowhere near the value
you could get if he fulfills his potential and is an elite starter in 2018.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Even if he is an average starter in 2018
that is worth more than a very good third or fourth option out of the bullpen.
BrockSamson - February 20, 2012
True
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Is it "terminal"?
No. See CJ Wilson for a recent example of a relief arm that was effectively transitioned to starting. As the above mentioned, the Cardinals did the same with Adam Wainwright, having him pitch out of the pen for a year before starting. Although, see Joba Chamberlain for how mishandling of the situation can be detrimental to a young arms development. Texas is attempting a similar transition this year with Neftali Feliz.
It can be done, but as has been said countless times before, with the amount of quality relief options we have, why? If Vizcaino were needed for a critical role I could see that as a good reason. But he won’t be, and you risk delay in his development. If a couple arms go down in spring like Kimbrel and Venters, it might become more likely. But as is, there just isn’t that great of a need for him in the bullpen, so you can let him continue his development process in AAA getting stretched out stamina-wise, working on a 3rd (and maybe 4th) pitch, and see how that pans out. At worst, you can always call him up in May or June and stick him in the pen if you must, with the added benefit of a delayed service clock.
Aside, I don’t personally see Hudson retiring within the next 2 years. If this back surgery has him rejuvenated and healthy, he could have several more years left as an effective starter.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
We could just as likely lose three starters, and Vizcaino get called up to do THAT in June or so.
So I don’t see a reason to convert him right now. Having him go as a starter isn’t exactly going to slow down his development as a reliever, I don’t think. He’s already got the two pitches he needs, and he’s going to keep using those two regardless of how much work he spends on his change-up.
Bronn - February 20, 2012
True
but I’d assume they are looking to cap his overall innings this year at 150, maybe 175, max. So I doubt he starts all year, and best case scenario, he starts most of the year in Gwinnett (because our staff is healthy and we don’t need to go that deep), logging near 130-140 innings or so, then in say August, we call him up to work out of the bullpen again just like last year to get his amazing stuff so big league use and keep him from risking a Verducci effect.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Say his max is 150, and he starts most of the season in Gwinnett, then runs out of gas by the time he gets that August call up.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
See last year
they’ll monitor his use to make sure he’s still available late in the year provided he’s healthy.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Again, why risk it, especially with a guy who has elbow issues. Also, what would you say the odds are of him needing TJS at some point down the road? I remember he had a partial tear two years ago, not sure how that will affect whether or not he needs it.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Why risk it?
Because if he is over his health issues, and can continue to develop, he could be a truly elite caliber starter. He has that caliber of stuff, control and command. Elbow issues may not be permanent, and the number of starters who have TJS and still return to excellence afterward is growing every year. And you’ve yet to dispute the fact that relieving may be a bigger strain on his health than the set routine of starting.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Yes he may turn into one of the best starters in the league, but having him in Gwinnett this year does nothing to help the team this year. I think we all agree that one of the only weak spots on the team last year was between starters and O’Ventbrel, and having him back there helps that. Long run, if he can turn out as great as they say he can, I would love to have him as a starter. But for now, that doesn’t make sense. And yes I know a lot of folks come back from TJS and do well. But where have you ever seen that starting puts less stress on a pitcher’s arm than relieving? Correct me if I am wrong, but I assume they have the pen on pretty set routines outside of games. When I played in high school, they had the relievers on pretty set throwing schedules for that reason. Again if theres a study about this that is out there, I would love to see that.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Also having
Medlen, Martinez, among others, helps that bridge between starters and O’Ventbrel. Not having Linebrink or Proctor helps there.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Medlen yes, but I would think CMart will be used roughly the same way he was last year, as a guy to go to if the starter gets knocked out early and we need innings to be eaten. If Vizzy does start the season in Gwinnett, it would probably be Medlen, Varvaro, maybe Gearrin handling those duties. I am very comfortable with Medlen, but Varvaro and Gearrin showed control issues last year that they will need to figure out.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Edit:
Ascencio, not Varvaro up there.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Don't forget Hoover
who excelled after the switch to the bullpen last year. He could very well be that missing piece.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
I like Hoover a lot. If he’s ready to take a role in the pen, then I am all for that.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
This is the problem though
even if he turns into just an average starter, one year of that is worth more than one year of a middle relief guy. If he turns into “one of the best starters in the league,” then that is worth astronomically more than a middle relief guy.
BrockSamson - February 20, 2012
While this is true, the current goal is to put the best team on the field right now, not in 2017-18 or whenever he is eligible for Free Agency.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
And as said above,
prove Vizcaino makes us better than Ascencio (I said Valdez earlier, oops). Or Hoover. Or Martinez, who has earned a more significant role with his production. It’s not like he lit up the world in his limited action. We have more than enough capable bullpen arms to put a good team on the field without sacrificing his development. The difference between Vizcaino, and one of those other guys as the 4th reliever is miniscule, especially compared to the difference in Vizcaino as a starter 5+ years from now without starting his clock prematurely.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Well exactly, I’m not saying go ahead and throw him the job just because. If he goes out this month and proves that he is the best man for the job, then by all means it should be his. Just like with Teheran, who didn’t blow anyone away last year. If Delgado looks better, then the 5th starter slot should be his.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
What if he's "the best man for the job"
by a very slim margin? Is that worth the development potential? Against spring training competition that doesn’t always pan out in the regular season.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
And I can't site a study, I can site John Smoltz
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-tale-of-two-roles/
I can’t find specific quotes from the time, but high school is very different from MLB, where you never know when you’ll be called on. There is not set routine outside of games, at least not like starting where it’s day off, throwing, throwing, day off starting, because you don’t do the side sessions as much since you never know if you might be needed for the game that day.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
I thought Smoltz came back from TJS to the bullpen specifically to prevent further elbow issues?
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Initially in 2002 that was the plan
but after a couple years in that role, he wanted to go back to starting, as said above, because of the predictable routine vs. the maybe you will, maybe you won’t 3 days in a row followed by a week off where you may go but don’t of relieving.
Where’s elsid, to comment about how a reliever, especially a 4th reliever, gets up in the 5th when the starter gets in trouble. Warms up completely, but the starter gets out of it. So he sits back down. Then gets up again in the 7th for the same situation. Then does it all again the next day, and may have to get up (and do just as much as they would if they entered a game) time and time again, with no rhyme or reason sometimes, and no ability to establish a routine because you never know which day, and in which innings, you’ll be needed. Again, my unscientific, lazy study shows relief arms suffer a lot higher frequency of injury than starters.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
You can much more easily monitor and control a guy's pitch counts/usage
When he’s in the minors. I mean, in the bigs, you’d never take a guy out if he was pitching really effectively and you needed to rest some other guys, but if he’s at AAA, they can use him 5 innings or less, if that’s what they deem he needs. And if he’s so frail that he suffers a major injury while being handled with kid gloves as a starter, he’s probably likely to get hurt as a reliever, so better that it happens while he’s NOT on the big league club, so you don’t have his arbitration clock ticking away as he’s recovering from surgery.
I honestly can’t believe there’s this much resistance to this. It seems like common sense to realize he’s not worth nearly as much as a reliever this year as he might be in the future. Even if he ends up as a reliever, it’s better to not use him now as a lower-tiered guy, and keep him developing until he has a defined role to step into. Otherwise it seems almost wasteful.
Bronn - February 20, 2012
First paragraph is very true, but see above about that role in the bullpen. If we can have a shut down 6th inning guy, we won’t have to worry so much about Minor or Teheran or Delgado not getting too deep into the game, which puts less stress on them to get to the 7th inning every start, something our team has always had issues with. I wouldn’t want him in some forgotten man role where he only comes in if its a five run game, but if he could split time with O’Flaherty and take on 6th inning duties, that works for me.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Have you seen how Fredi uses his relievers?
he has “forgotten” men same as Bobby would. If you aren’t his top 3, you just don’t get the call that often.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Well that happens when you have a big three like O’Ventbrel followed by a crowd of decent pitchers. If we can have a guy, be it Hoover or Vizzy or Medlen, who can take care of the 6th inning, Fredi’s job gets that much easier when a pitcher needs to come out early.
abraves257 - February 20, 2012
Unfortunately
his history, similar to Bobby’s doesn’t prove that out. It shows a tendency to ride arms in to the ground while leaving others to rot from lack of use.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
The bullpen battle should be interesting
As Bronn mentioned earlier, I think C Mart is pretty much a lock and I don’t think we will be seeing Meds in the rotation. That leaves two spots open, and I think one should go to Ascensio, without question, he is out of options and has the makings of a high leverage reliever.
In my opinion, the final spot is determined by whether we are more oriented to winning now or are looking down the road. Vizzy would be the choice if we wanted to put the best arm in the pen, but sending him AAA to start, develop his change, and avoid starting his arbitration clock would be the best long-term strategy to me. If we take the more future-oriented path, I would propose giving the last spot to Gearrin/Moylan (groundball specialist) or Varvaro (another power arm).
Of course this could prove to be utterly useless speculation; spring performance will be more valuable in determining who merits the final spots in the bullpen.
MatM - February 20, 2012
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