I wanted to see what everything thinks about the battle for the back end of our rotation. Assuming Huddy is not healthy enough to start the season, and assuming Hanson and JJ are, then we can figure that the season starts with Hanson, JJ, and Beachy, leaving 2 spots left to battle for.
Everything I keep reading says that the battle for those spots comes down to Minor, Teheran, Delgado, and Vizcaino as the dark horse. Why am I not seeing more talk about Kris Medlen? I read 2 or 3 articles today that never mentioned his name. But I go on fangraphs to see if he has been projected, and Bill James thinks he will start 20 games with an 8.47/2.14 K/BB ratio, and 3.09 FIP. These articles also tend to mention how Teheran and Delgado, while great talents, could use some seasoning in AAA to work on their 2nd and 3rd pitches, while Minor wouldn't benefit nearly as much from more AAA time.
So the way I see it, Minor should be our #4, and Medlen should be our #5, which benefits the major league club in having the most experience in the rotation, while also getting Teheran and Delgado some more time to work on some other pitches.
Another option would be to try to stretch out Vizcaino again during spring training. Both Vizcaino and Medlen would probably be considered our 4th best relievers and potential multiple innings guys, so in the bullpen, they are fairly interchangeable. Maybe we should be trying to get Vizcaino back into a starting role so that we can see more clearly how our dream team of starters may look one day (Hanson, Teheran, Vizcaino, Delgado, Minor, Beachy, Medlen, choose 5 and in no particular order because any of them could be aces by the time thats the rotation).
That's it for my rant. My main point I wanted to bring up is that I think Kris Medlen SHOULD be the front runner for the #5 spot, yet he doesn't even appear to be the dark horse. Am I missing something?
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
0 recs | 81 comments
toss up
I think the #5 starter should be between Minor and Medlen, and if those were the 4/5 at the start of the season, the one who has pitched the best to that point would probably have the inside track to holding onto it. However, with the amount of injuries I feel like we have in our rotation, I’m sure everyone will be getting their fair share of starts. I do love Medlen though, wouldn’t mind seeing that flat brim hat back on the mound starting every 5th day. GO BRAVES!
B4TheFlop - February 14, 2012
YOU READ MY MIND!!!
Dude, It’s like you’re inside my head. Medlen could theoretically be the ace of the staff if he comes back to what he was. I couldn’t agree more with every word!
AtlantaMelo - February 15, 2012
Gotta be Minor IMO
His peripherals were solid and I feel Medlen is best used as a long reliever/starter when injuries hit
Beachy Keen - February 14, 2012
Medlen
I think the plan is for Medlen to get stretched out to possibly start at the very beginning of spring training (which Braves would be most likely Huddy less as well) and then see where things go from there. Who knows, Medlen may get a shot at the rotation but I do think he will end up being a huge part of the pen, allowing O’Ventbrel some much needed relief along with Arodys Vizcaino.
LEastCoastBears - February 15, 2012
Minor and Teheran as 4 and 5...
Delgado starts the year in Gwinnett, and Vizzy it’s hard to say whther he should start the year as a SP in Gwinnett or have a shot at a bullpen job in Atlanta. Medlen is your long relief guy, but he helps you be so much more flexible if he can get into 2-3 games per week…and he pitches against LHP extremely well.
I’m more curious of what happens when Huddy comes back and we have to move Minor or Teheran back to Gwinnett.
TBuzz - February 15, 2012
Vizzy should start in AAA, even if he is the best option in the pen.
Look at the Pen at start of the year, assuming Teheran/Minor/Delgado- 2 of them make up #4/#5 starters
O’Ventbrel
Medlen
C-Mart
Varvaro
That’s 5 guys who would be 8th/9th guys on most teams, and Varvaro’s servicable. This is also assuming Moylan isn’t ready to start the year, but even if he was, at best he’d be the 6th best guy in the pen.
The 7th guy should be Gearrin personally.
There’s no need to burn Vizzy’s service clock on being a back-end reliever, especially since there are a couple of replacement options in AAA who could fill in case of injury.
Broccoman - February 15, 2012
I see the opening day rotation shaking out like this:
Hanson Beachy JJ Minor Teheran
We’ll need a 5-man rotation to start the year, as we play 13 days in a row in April. IMO, Medlen is much better suited for the ’pen due to his lack of a plus third pitch and his ability to pitch to both sides of the plate with his changeup.
Also, I think the ‘pen should look like: Kid Kimbrel, Johnny Badass, EOF, Vizzy, Meds, Varvaro with The Lisp as the long man. I doubt Petah will be on the team this year, which is sad, cuz he’s such a cool guy.
Fatvirus - February 15, 2012
Enviable position...
No matter how you look at it…
Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Beachy, Minor, Medlin, Delgado, Teheran, Gilmartin,
Kimbrel, Venters, O’fleherty, Viz, Martinez, Varvaro, Fish, Ascencio, Gearrin, Hoover, Chapman, Redmon, Cordier, Avilan,
I don’t know how they’ll go. As previously stated, I think they need to get Medlin back in the rotation. He’s got “it”. As much hype as Teheran gets, I personally liked what I saw in Delgado as a starter. Lots of composure, plus pitches and pinpoint control is what I saw. Beachy is the most underated. Minor has the lefty starter inside track. Starters galore, several capable of being aces on other teams.
So many relief options I can’t see how we won’t have one of the better staffs in either league top to bottom.
Thanks for the post, really got me thinking. Man, do I love baseball!
AtlantaMelo - February 15, 2012
Except… his statistics reflect that he’s better reliever than starter. Also, he doesn’t have a breaking pitch, which most starters need to keep hitters honest. Meds is much better suited for middle relief. A guy who can pitch to 1 hitter or for 2 innings.
Fatvirus - February 15, 2012
what pitch is he missing?
He has a 4 pitch arsenal, and scouts have said he has a better than average fastball, a plus curveball, a plus changeup, and slider.
Alex H - February 15, 2012
Only his changeup is plus...
other than that he’ll throw a get-me-over curve to start the count…but certainly it’s not a K pitch.
TBuzz - February 15, 2012
you might believe this
but where are the stats to back it up?
more importantly:
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/02/20/medlen-prefers-starting-prado-shrugs-off-trade-rumors/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog
JoelGuzman'sScout - February 21, 2012
Of course he prefers starting, it makes him more valuable.
Fatvirus - February 21, 2012
Agree with Melo, good post, we have a blue million options
Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor, Medlen to start the season would be fine with me. Let Teheran and Delgado season a little more in AAA. Teheran can still improve his breaking ball, Delgado can use some AAA experience. Let Vizcaino work as a starter in AAA, I really like the comment above about his service clock.
Kimbrel, Venters, O’Flaherty, Martinez, Varvaro, plus 2 of JJ Hoover, Jairo Ascencio, Cory Gearrin, Robert Fish or Moylan if he is ready, for the pen. I guess Jaye Chapman will get a look too.
When Huddy returns, move Medlen to the pen to replace whoever seems to be the weak link. Ascencio recently won the Carribean World Series MVP award as the closer for the D.R. JJ Hoover, as a reliever, seems to be really close to ready for the next step. Gearrin was close last year, Robert Fish either makes the team or gets sent back or the Braves have to cut a deal to keep him.
bighop - February 15, 2012
Everything above is why I still gotta think that Jurrjens oughta have a month-to-month lease… I’m still betting he’s moved before April if he can show good form.
carpengui - February 15, 2012
As soon as he shows he's healthy enough...
He’s gone. We know we won’t re-sign him with Boras as his agent so as soon as he hopefully starts off (hopefully) kick’n butt and take’n names we’ll replentish whatever we need the most. I’d like to see a left field starter that can play center next year and a strong future 3rd base prospect. We’ve got plenty of starting pitching prospects to fill in. Even though Bourn is in the same contractual position as JJ, I’d keep him for the hole year while he proves his worth for someone else next year.
AtlantaMelo - February 15, 2012
We’ve signed Boras guys before. I think one of Hanson or JJ will be here long-term.
Broccoman - February 16, 2012
Ascenio’s also out of options- he might make the club due to this.
Broccoman - February 15, 2012
Ascenio should be traded while his value is high. He could be that setup man that many teams crave.
rxadam - February 15, 2012
Who cares? All of the will post sub 3.00 ERAs, anyways.
JohnRocker4CyYoung - February 15, 2012
them*
JohnRocker4CyYoung - February 15, 2012
My prediction:
Hanson
Hudson*
Jurrjens
Beachy
Minor
CL Kimbrel
SU Venters
SU Vizcaino
MR O’Flaherty
MR Varvaro
MR Fish
LR Medlen
*Teheran or Delgado will fill this spot and then eventually both will go to AAA to wait for injury or trade.
I know many of you want both Medlen and Vizcaino in the rotation and if we had a real need there I think that would be a good choice. However both have injury concerns and two pitches that are much better than their others (Medlen FB/CH and Vizcaino FB/CU) so they are the most logical one to move to the pen. Even if we lose one pitcher to injury and trade another we still have Teheran and Delgado to fill their spots.
I want to go to camp with the best 13 arms possible without doing permanent harm to prize arms and I believe those 13 would be it.
bbxxj - February 15, 2012
4 man bench?
TBuzz - February 15, 2012
Yeah I meant 12. Sorry. I have 12 listed when I wrote it out.
bbxxj - February 16, 2012 via mobile
Martinez
Replace Fish with C-Mart and it looks good. Guarantee we’d lose C-Mart is he hits the waiver wire (he’s out of options, I believe) and they could probably make a deal to keep Fish and send him down.
Gib in Seoul - February 16, 2012
If Vizcaino makes it we are going to have to bump someone out that would make alot of other pens. I like Fish over Martinez because he is a lefty and Medlen can do everything Martinez has done for us role wise. Martinez is my first in if one of those seven gets hurt.
bbxxj - February 16, 2012 via mobile
Lefty argument
The comments about a lefty are really moot seeing as two of our top 3 guys are lefties. Most pens don’t carry more than two lefties unless they’re better pitchers than other options, and I do not think Fish/Asencio is a better pitcher than C-Mart.
biggentleben - February 16, 2012
And in terms of shutting down lefties
Medlen is very good at it, and due to his changeup, is more effective against lefties than rights.
Career triple slash …
vs. RH .282/.330/.483
vs. LH .237/.301/.373
Mr. Sanchez - February 16, 2012
This is a very good point. Medlen can serve in effect as the ‘third lefty’ in the pen. I think we need a third lefty because Venters and even O’Flaherty are more late inning guys and shouldn’t be brought in to face just one guy like a Fish could.
bbxxj - February 16, 2012
Cool beans...
Thanks, I didn’t know that about Medlin. That makes a big difference!
AtlantaMelo - February 17, 2012
The whole "Medlen is a lefty-killer" thing is a myth.
Left-handed batters hit .281/.316/.449 off of him in 2010, which is significantly worse than how he fared against right-handed batters. His career splits are highly distorted by fluke-ish results against lefties in 67 innings of the 2009 seasons, and I’d be much more willing to trust the results from 107 innings in 2010. The best explanation I can come up with is that word got around about his change-up after his rookie year and lefties were able to make a quick adjustment. At this point I would say, at best, the overall difference in effectiveness between lefties and righties is minimal.
swainzy - February 18, 2012
I completely, agree I see no reason to give Fish a spot over C-Mart, after how important C-Mart was to us last year. Especially when having two Lefties who are more than LOOGIES give us tremendous flexibility.
Swo12bv - February 17, 2012
I think Medlen has more value as long relief/setup than as a starter. Don’t ask me how or why though.
walknbalk - February 16, 2012
his career stats
that’s why.
Fatvirus - February 16, 2012
so you are essentially saying that Medlen is more valuable pitching low leverage innings and substantially less innings then he would as a starter where he pitches 150 innigns. I understand that replacement value has an effect here, but Medlen is most valuable as a trade chip, because he can do so many things, that we really don’t need at this point, the beginning of the season should be used to boost his value as either a starter (filling in for a rehabbing Hudson makes sense), or late inning releiver (part of the O’Ventrble monster).
Swo12bv - February 17, 2012
If we trade Medlen, who’s going to be the team lesbian?
justincredubil02 - February 17, 2012
Trade chip!?
Why the hades would be want to trade away an excellent, very versatile, cost-controlled young pitcher.
fandave - February 17, 2012
Because he doesn’t really fit into a role on the team – we have better guys everywhere we could put him.
That’s not a slight on him, but an amazing truth about our depth.
justincredubil02 - February 17, 2012
I agree with the depth part. I like depth. Depth is good. When you trade away pieces like Medlen, you diminish the team as a whole … a very unwise thing to do in my view. I would be profoundly shocked (as in WTF!!!) if Wren traded Medlen prior to or during the upcoming season.
fandave - February 17, 2012
There is a reason for depth beyond insurance. Depth allows you to trade a valuable commodity (like Medlen) for a more rare commodity (like a potential SS or LF or future 3B).
Hoarding these guys for a “just in case” situation is not wise.
justincredubil02 - February 17, 2012
I know you will be very surprised, but I disagree and believe Wren simply would not it – certainly not before next off-season.
At that point, we will have had the benefit of Medlen contributing to our team’s success for the upcoming season and we will know (or have much better ideas) about the possibility of new ownership, the possibility of a higher payroll in the future, how much Hudson still has in the tank, whether Jurrjens and/or Hanson will need to be dealt for financial reasons, and the reliance we are prepared to put on Minor, Teheran and Degado.
fandave - February 18, 2012
So we should stockpile all of our players forever just in case 3 or 4 of our starters get hurt?
justincredubil02 - February 18, 2012
distort any statement to its most outlandish and extreme variant?
fandave - February 18, 2012
You just said that you disagree with me
My point was that there is a reason for depth beyond insurance. That was it. I never said anything about any of the other things you posted, so since you said you disagree with me, the only thing you could disagree with is the statement that I made about depth.
justincredubil02 - February 18, 2012
that is what I said? thanks so much for clearing that up for me.
fandave - February 18, 2012
You tell me
justincredubil02 - February 19, 2012
CAREFULL DUDE...
Medlen has proven himself (yes, for a short time) in the BIGS. As much as we love to read about our “can’t miss” prospects, they’re all can miss until they’ve been here and done it. All due respect to the top guns, Meds is a more proven top gun.
AtlantaMelo - February 18, 2012
Medlen is a proven average gun – and a small sample size of proof at that.
justincredubil02 - February 18, 2012
Because you can get a great return for a young cost-controlled starter
and if we’re using him as a reliever, he might have better value to another team who’s willing to pay that price.
Mr. Sanchez - February 17, 2012
What exactly is this price of which you speak?
The primary problem with all or almost all the rosterbatory fantisies is other GMs actually want to “win” trades too and are not going to give up top tier position talent for Medlen. Conversely, his value to the Braves, especially in the short term (the 2012 season), is extremely high and Wren has made it abundantly clear that he is not anxious to deal away young pitchers.
Of course, for the right price, Wren could and maybe should pull the trigger and deal any player in the organization. And if I win the megamillions lottery, I could buy a lovely little South Pacific island.
fandave - February 18, 2012
The "price"
is for Wren to determine, whether it’s a near ready prospect at CF, LF, 3B, a package of prospects, whatever. I doubt he’d demand the price you are trying to imply in that last paragraph.
Mr. Sanchez - February 18, 2012
I doubt he would consider it as even a remote possibility unless a pretty extraordinary, unsolicited offer happened to be dropped on him.
fandave - February 18, 2012
Medlen is good, but he's not elite by any means
and I’d guess other teams might value a cost controlled starter more than we value our 4th reliever.
Mr. Sanchez - February 18, 2012
So much this
I swear, people around here overvalue our players so much.
justincredubil02 - February 18, 2012
But if the price is for Wren to reasonably determine and other teams should (you guess) place such a high value on Meds, and since you’re – of course – always correct, then hasn’t he already been dealt? Could it be possible that others in actual decision-making positions might have failed to discern the superiority of your logic?
fandave - February 18, 2012
Yikes
Medlen’s trade value could not be much lower right now. He’s not proven truly that he is healed from a major surgery. That’s why he hasn’t been traded already. Hudson’s not going to be 100% to start the season, if he can even start the season, which means Medlen should get some starts early in the year. Within the Braves organization, the logical trade chips are Jurrjens and Medlen if another team is looking for a young starter as they likely are not better than young pitching we have, and they have high value once they show they’re healthy. I could see both of them absolutely gone in July if just one of Teheran/Delgado takes the bull by the horns and asserts himself (let alone both) and if the bullpen depth is proving as plentiful as it appears on paper at current. You trade those two at that point and bring back an elite prospect or a very solid bat.
Pundits will berate the Braves for not developing a ton of top-end hitting talent (though a potential future 3-4-5 being all homegrown would laugh at them), but having a huge farm of upside arms does exactly this for you. The team traded very good arms last summer to get one of the better speed threats and defensive center fielders in the game for multiple years of control. Those arms would still have been sub-top 5 arms in the minor league system, yet they yielded a very handsome reward. You move excess to meet need, you don’t hold onto excess for a rainy day.
biggentleben - February 19, 2012
Help me understand you
are you saying that Mr. Sanchez is wrong in saying that Medlen is not elite because he has not been traded yet?
justincredubil02 - February 19, 2012
I’m saying the pitcher Wren wants to move is JJ, primarily because of payroll management considerations; and Medlen – who was paid only $429,500 in 2011 and has only 2.137 years of ML service time – is a young, talented, cost-controlled piece that Wren has no reason to want to move. Medlen is not an “excess” pitcher that the Braves would be just as happy to not have around.
On the other hand, and as I was also saying, almost any player in the organization is theoretically subject to being traded in the right deal, depending on the perceived value of the player or players we are receiving back and how it is likely to impact the team in both the short and long term.
The way I see the big picture situation right now, as spring camp opens, is as follows: The Braves’ braintrust obviously has short, mid and long term objectives, but the single most important objective is to position the team to strongly compete each and every season (insofar as realistically feasible) for a world championship. So, the number 1 priority is to field a superb 25 man roster with depth and versatility and capacity to withstand the rigors of the upcoming 162 game season. I believe that management obviously views the team, as constructed, as legitimately being in the 2012 mix for post-season play and thus a potential championship; and views the pitching staff is the single most vitally critical element of a deep championship run. And while the pitching staff projects to be excellent, given that there are numerous health and experience related questions, it is very highly unlikely that Medlen is or will be put on the trading block or otherwise shopped around.
So, to the extent that you and Sanchez seem to be advocating moving Medlen for positional prospects / greater farm system depth, I think you’re wrong. Very specifically: (i) it ain’t happening, and (ii) it wouldn’t be smart.
fandave - February 19, 2012
You imply much more in to my statements than is actually there
particularly in timing.
On your specifics, 1 is obvious considering how late in the process things are for teams setting their roster. 2 depends on the return and requires a crystal ball to know how each player’s future pans out.
Mr. Sanchez - February 19, 2012
"Medlen is a young, talented, cost-controlled piece that Wren has no reason to want to move"
Reason #1: Brandon Beachy
Reason #2: Mike Minor
Reason #3: Arodys Vizcaino
Reason #4: Julio Teheran
Reason #5: Randall Delgado
Reason #6: Sean Gilmartin
All are equal or better than Medlen in talent, all have less service time. Medlen needs to re-establish his value, and then I can absolutely see him out the door in a deal. He has no ability to get equivalent value right now with Medlen not having re-established himself after surgery. It has nothing to do with a desire to want to trade him. He can’t get a decent deal for him right now, so better to let him earn his wings, then move him aside for reasons 1-6 to take their place.
biggentleben - February 20, 2012
Wow, just wow
how my correctness and logical superiority came about is all you, and never said nor implied by me. But thanks for nailing yourself up on that cross. I’m still waiting for an actual response that doesn’t go off on some unrelated tangent and has substance.
And his “value” as ben says, still requires him proving his good health after TJ surgery. But the simple fact that he’s our 4th relief arm, and could be someone else’s 3rd or 4th starter, isn’t that hard to see.
Mr. Sanchez - February 19, 2012
wow. so sorry. looking down the drainpipe, ain’t no shadow of a doubt, isn’t hard to see at all.
and I prefer standing rather being betrayed or nailed on any crosses. thanks.
fandave - February 19, 2012
you guys realize it is like 4 guys against one, and all four of you (us) has grounded the argument in logic.
there are times when you just walk away and understand he’s not gonna agree, and is wrong.
I don’t mean to imply its a certainty Medlen will be traded, but it is a possibility and is probably at the top of a bunch of team watch lists. Once proven healthy things will get interesting
Swo12bv - February 20, 2012
I think I am going to reserve judgement until a couple spring training games go by
My first reaction would be to bring Minor and Medlen into the rotation until Huddy is healthy. But if we see Teheran or Delgado heat up and really look good you have to go with one of them instead and put Medlen back in the pen. Its a shame that Meds has gotten type cast as a long reliever, but that’s what happens when you get injured and have Tommy John surgery and already make it to the MLB Club. Fingers crossed for Medlen though to get himself into the rotation. It’ll be fun to watch these guys compete for those spots in Spring Training, just like the Minor and Beachy competition last year.
dcbravesfn - February 16, 2012
You are correct
Medlens numbers as a starter,are about the same as Hanson in all categories.He has been exceptional as a starter.He’s been average at best as a relief pitcher.
I would be surprised if he doesn’t open the season in the 5 slot.Long term,he is probably behind the other 4 in the Braves thinking.A few early season starts would hopefully cement his value in a future trade.
dawg1060 - February 16, 2012
MEDLIN...
It’s awesome to have so many options with him. I’m going back and forth. I remember when he was starting, and as i said before, he seems to have “it”. But, his experience would be valuable in letting Teheran or Delgado step into thier comfort zone as a starter from the jump. Hell, I don’t know. I guess it’ll be sorted out in ST.
AtlantaMelo - February 17, 2012
Innings is everything
If we want to finish strong and win in the playoffs we need fresh arms in September and October. .guys in the bullpen to start could be our best guys to pitch down the stretch. Teheran, Delgado, medlen, vizcaino, minor,maybe even beachy is incapable of starting the season and pitching well through the playoffs. with Hudson, jj and Hanson all as injury. Concerns, and jj as a trade candidate, we need to be creative here. We need to let Hudson start late to get these young guys more experience, and get some of these other guys major league experience in the pen while you conserve their arms, if ther are aces in the pen jj gets traded. Or if one gets injured you split starts w young guys as they stretch out
willlinn - February 18, 2012
Put away the bong
This was ridiculously bad, even for your standards of rambling, noncoherant babbling.
biggentleben - February 18, 2012
*Are
justincredubil02 - February 18, 2012
really dude, that was your take away?
Swo12bv - February 20, 2012
It's as far as I got
justincredubil02 - February 20, 2012
couldn’t he have been referring to the singular concept of “innings” rather than the literal plural form of inning?
Alex H - February 20, 2012
If so, he fortgot a word.
justincredubil02 - February 20, 2012
this would be so much funnier if that first o was an a
or I guess I should say second o (in the sentence).
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
or if I didn’t have a random “t” thrown in.
justincredubil02 - February 20, 2012
fails to see how you accurately spelling words makes things funnier
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
Well, normally, that would be true – but when I’m making fun of other’s grammatical errors, it’s sort of relevant.
justincredubil02 - February 20, 2012
Internet karma
90% of the time someone attempts to correct another’s grammatical mistake on the internet, they make a grammatical mistake themselves.
Mr. Sanchez - February 20, 2012
That’s why I usually double and triple check what I am about to post anytime I partake in such an event. lol
This one got away from me.
justincredubil02 - February 20, 2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muphry%27s_law
swainzy - February 21, 2012
Whoa……deja vu.
swainzy - February 21, 2012
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