This article is a fantasy baseball perspective, but I'm curious how the diehard Atlanta fans view their chances. With some potential injury risk in your first four starters, what are your expectations for innings and games started?
There's no denying the talent that Hanson, Jurrjens, and Beachy have, not to mention up-and-coming Minor and Teheran, but will they all avoid injuries and DL time long enough to put together a full season?
How confident are you in Teheran or Delgado taking over if someone goes out for an extended time?
I’m confident that Hudson will avoid missing major time, although he projected the miss the start of the season. JJ and Hanson I’m not so confident about, but fwiw JJ seems to have figured out that his unusually short TOE was giving him knee problems and that situation seems to be corrected through shoe inserts. Hanson is working on a revamped delivery to take the strain off his shoulder, we’ll see how that works out.
I’m not so worried about Beachy, I think he will have a breakout year. But if any of the starters go down, very confident in Teheran and Delgado filling in…especially if they are filling in for 4th and 5th starter spots.
walknbalk - February 14, 2012
Thanks and agreed.
I didn’t know about Jurrjens’ toe, so that’s interesting. I knew about Hanson’s revamped delivery, but you gotta wonder if not having surgery, plus new delivery taking some getting used to, won’t hurt his numbers at least early on.
varrys - February 14, 2012
http://www.talkingchop.com/2012/1/30/2760106/jairs-tiny-toe-joint#comments
walknbalk - February 14, 2012
I read the article
…and I was underwhelmed. Focusing your attention in the bullpen on O’Ventbrel and not getting into the rest to those three that Vizcaino, Medlen, a possibly healthy Moylan, and others can provide is ridiculous. The Braves have the arms to run an old-fashioned 10 man pitching staff if they’d like with O’Ventbrel and any combo of Martinez, Medlen, Vizcaino, Delgado, Hoover, and others throwing everything up until the 8th and letting the more rested trio finish out a game. They won’t do that, instead they’ll go with a modern 12-man pitching staff, with arms galore that can keep the stress off of the back end and allow the starters the opportunity to stretch out some, especially early in the season.
The change in delivery affecting stats would likely be more from a fantasy perspective, and only short-term. Delivery changes that have been successful in the past have seen a change in strikeout rates higher or lower until the other side makes an adjustment. With his stuff, I’d wager that Hanson is more likely to see an uptick in strikeouts, especially early, which would make him a great draft-and-trade guy in fantasy.
Currently, the Braves projected AAA rotation will have up to 4 guys who could be starting for at least 20 major league teams right now and would be without the Braves’ depth in arms. Injuries to the staff is the least of my concerns. If you want to use BABIP correctly with the Braves, point it at the hitting, especially the hitting after August 1. The team in general seemed to have a negative bounce effect with their BABIP for two months, culminating in allowing the eventual World Champs to pass them by on the final day for the playoffs. The hitting coach lost his job for good reason as multiple guys achieved professional lows for OBP and BB%, and the hacking style led to a major slump when the team hit any rocky patch for the middle of the lineup guys. Expect a better overall season from Uggla and McCann. Chipper will hit when he’s in the lineup, and Freeman did what he’s done at every level of the minors, take some time to adjust, and then do nothing but stroke nice looking hits. The wild cards for everyone will be Prado and Heyward, two guys picked quite highly last year, Prado more for his positional versatility, and Heyward for his tremendous offensive potential. Pairing those two back with someone who encourages working the count will be vital, and it could lead to the Braves lineup being one of the more underrated groups in fantasy going into 2012.
biggentleben - February 15, 2012
I like Medlen and Moylan.
But they’re both coming off huge DL stints from 2012. Like the starters, if healthy they can be good. But I worry about their health, and what kind of work load they can shoulder in 2013.
The article does focus on fantasy, so going past the “top 3” RP wasn’t a primary focus, aside from acknowledging the risk of some of these guys as well.
Vizcaino went from high-A to MLB in one season. Isn’t there some concern with the 21 year old and whether he’ll be great all year? For what it’s worth, PECOTA projects Vizcaino for 60 IP, 4.70 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. Ron Shandler projects less IP at 29, but 3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9. I’d lean more toward Shandler’s projections than PECOTA, but given his youth, if he’s pitching 60+ innings, maybe PECOTA is more accurate. He’s got a great future, but 2012 may not show the best numbers.
Martinez as the long man should be able to give the other RP a break, or if a starter gets knocked out early. Delgado I see more as a SP and wonder if he won’t be back in AAA, like you say, given how many arms ATL has down there.
varrys - February 15, 2012
Medlen’s healthy and took a generous break in 2011 after his surgery (he was brought back slowly because he wasn’t “needed”). Moylan is absolutely healthy as well.
For fantasy, I (and many other writers) have found that going only top 3 deep is often missing out on great fantasy players. Top 3 Cardinals relievers last season on opening day wouldn’t have included Jason Motte and the top 3 Dodger relievers wouldn’t have included Kanley Jensen, but I stocked both on a dynasty league team because of their other numbers, and they were great contributors before they got the closing job and definitely after that. A guy like Venters was more valuable than many closers last season, especially if you’re willing to punt saves. I’d be very interested in guys like Vizcaino, Medlen, and Hoover this year in a deep league because if up, they’ll put up awesome stats and allow you to stream starters without worrying about any innings limits in a roto league.
I have no concerns about Vizcaino. The reason he started in high-A last season was more because they wanted to ensure his arm was healthy and give him the chance to start. He moved to the majors once in the bullpen. The team wants him to start, certainly, in the long term, but he could be a very valuable fantasy reliever with a very good K rate and solid peripherals as a middle relief guy.
Martinez is the long man by default, but Medlen, Vizcaino, and Delgado could all be put in the pen as a long reliever/6th starter as well, especially early in the season, which is when they could show themselves invaluable to the team and force a spot on the roster and many fantasy rosters.
biggentleben - February 15, 2012
Leagues with true middle men certainly need more than top-3 RP
You’re right. I might have rushed the analysis of the Braves bullpen. I’m aware of how much middle men can be worth in leagues that value them; I’ve used the strategy of choosing top holds guys instead of closers, in CBS points leagues that score for holds as well as saves. But because this article was broad in topic, I opted not to cover every option. Will someone like Vizcaino have value in some fantasy formats? Sure, if he performs well.
Originally the article was more focused on the rotation and the risk of injuries and lack of SP who are guaranteed to make 30 starts. After the fact I figured that the missed starts would affect the bullpen, possibly overtaxing guys who had some luck in 2011 (O’Flaherty), the young arms (Vizcaino), and the guys coming back from surgery (M&M), and I made some quick comments about that effect on the bullpen. Maybe I could have expanded my discussion, or split it into two articles, Braves rotation and Braves bullpen. It was already a long enough piece as it was, though, and the more important or more applicable part to many fantasy managers was the rotation.
I’d shy away from “absolutely healthy” and similar terms. No projection system I’ve seen is banking on huge IP loads for either Moylan or Medlen; Medlen gets 20 starts from Bill James, the most generous so far, but clearly they’re not banking on a full season. In fantasy baseball, given that we don’t know Medlen’s role, and given the uncertainty of IP, the risk makes me pass. There are a lot of other great middle men to take who at least don’t have an injury history going into the year (Bard, Robertson, Hernandez, Benoit, Marshall, to name a few), that I’d rather take one of those guys before rolling the dice on a young Vizcaino or the M&M relievers. I guess it all depends on exactly how deep your bullpen and RP slots are in your fantasy league, and what the scoring system is.
varrys - February 15, 2012
Projection systems are based very strongly off of last season’s stats, even James’, so I wouldnt weigh heavily on those projection systems when evaluating a fantasy player.
As far as relievers, with or without holds, I’ve always lived well on high-K type of relievers, because they’re quick and easy to drop/pickup. In a Yahoo league, I’ll go for 2-3 closers and a middle man or two, whereas in ESPN, where there isn’t classification on RP/SP, I go for 4-6 relievers and use all my bench spots on starters. I have yet to come near an innings cap in an ESPN roto league, and very good starters are available much later than very good relievers, so you can stock your team late in either draft or auction format with very high-quality starters.
I would say that the “injury risk” of the rotation (any pitcher anywhere is an injury risk) is lessened in Atlanta as well as anywhere else almost, except perhaps Tampa. The depth of high-level arms who will be at AAA and guys who could move from the bullpen to the rotation for a start or two that will be in the majors is enough to really think this year that we may see the bullpen much, much LESS taxed than 2011, where those same players simply were working their way up the ladder in 2011. Those guys have now had a taste, and there’s a good group still behind them of arms that could also spot start for one or two trips through the rotation and not hurt the team at all. Would I value Tommy Hanson as a top-10 starter, as his talent would suggest? Probably not, but I think if you wait out of the top 25, you’ll miss out on him. Scary thing is that I think Beachy will possibly be as good or better than Hanson in 2012 (I’m keeping Beachy and dropping Hanson in an NL-only keeper league, though that’s a lot about a $1 Beachy and $25 Hanson), and he’s been flying way under the radar early on.
biggentleben - February 15, 2012
Oops.
Didn’t post my reply as an actual reply to the thread. See below. =)
varrys - February 15, 2012
Love Beachy's talent going forward.
I’m curious about when you say you use 4-6 relievers in ESPN. How many are closers?
In your Yahoo, you say 2-3 closers and 1-2 middle men. I doubt everyone in your league uses that strategy, but if they did, that’d be, say, 24 non-closer RP. That’s less than one middle man per MLB team being selected. Yet you’d like me to go more than 3 deep on the RP in Atlanta? Though I could for analysis for the sake of Atlanta Braves fans, in your own Yahoo league the odds are you wouldn’t be reaching for Vizcaino, or whatever RP you want to rank as the #3 non-closer on Atlanta. (I assume Kimbrel closer, Venters setup, then the rest of the team.) I agree that good fantasy managers should be knowledgeable about Vizcaino’s potential, but in terms of your roster you wouldn’t necessarily have him on your team. Especially considering most teams’ #1 setup men are pretty good RP options, that’s as deep as your league goes.
At Hardball Times’ Closer Watch page There are plenty of RP options of players that I know will amass good IP totals with nice skill sets. Honestly, I wouldn’t gamble on O’Flaherty repeating or Vizcaino unless someone got hurt or roles changed.
varrys - February 15, 2012
I have many times punted saves
….and blown away pitching with that strategy, using all middle men. Then a middle man or four ends up a closer by the end, and things look better. Even better strategy in a H2H league where a week-long closing gig for a middle guy could win you saves even in a week.
biggentleben - February 16, 2012
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