If you're reading this, you're probably all too conscious of two facts. First, that the Braves' pitchers and catchers report in (only?) 41 days. And second, that those areas of the team are the ones least in need of improvement.
The Braves' pitchers carried the team in 2011, and the catching tandem was perhaps the best in MLB. Most of the rest of the offense struggled to keep up with their peers around the league, however.
Over the next few weeks, I'll be taking a closer look at the Braves' offense, position by position. The goal is to see how the Braves' players compared to the rest of the NL in '11. In addition, I'll look ahead using projections (and my own two cents) to see how much improvement we can reasonably expect from each position this year.
The main metric I'll be using in these posts is Weighted Runs Created, or wRC. If you aren't familiar with wRC, don't worry. Just think of it as a fancy--and more accurate--version of runs or RBIs. It's on the same scale as those stats, so you know that 70-80 is decent and 100 is very good. You can also read the FanGraphs glossary entry on wRC here.
We'll start on a happy note, with the Braves' best position: catcher. The infographic below sums up the offensive performance of the Braves' catchers in 2011, compared to the rest of the NL. You're going to want to click on the graphic to expand it.
Long story short: even with McCann having somewhat of a down year, the Braves' catchers were still clearly one of the top two groups in the NL.
Both Brian McCann and David Ross performed at a well above-average rate for their position. Given a full season of 700 PAs (yeah, catchers never get that many, but anyway), McCann would be about 25 runs better than an average NL catcher. Ross would be 13 runs better than average over 700 PA.
Among the 35 NL catchers with at least 100 PA, McCann's rate ranked tied for 5th* and Ross was 14th. The Braves' average of 94 wRC per 700 PA ranked 2nd in the NL behind the Diamondbacks.
* You'd never guess who was #1: Henry Blanco, with 106 wRC per 700 PAs. Yeah, that Henry Blanco.
Overall, the Braves' catchers posted a total of 95 wRC. McCann had 73 wRC, Ross had 21, and J.C. Boscan chipped in with 1. That total was the highest of any NL team, edging out the D'backs (who had 94).
McCann's 73 wRC was low for him; the past 3 seasons, he had been worth 83, 80, and 97 wRC. Though he was probably a bit disappointed with his production, McCann still put up the 2nd-most wRC of any NL catcher (Miguel Montero had 77).
Looking ahead to the 2012 season, most people seem to think that McCann will bounce back to his normal levels. Bill James projects McCann to be worth 82 wRC. The Fan Projections at FanGraphs think he'll be even better: 84 wRC. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system doesn't list wRC, but it thinks McCann will hit about the same as in 2011 (.270 / .354 / .458) but with about 30 more PAs. So that'd be around 76-78 wRC, probably.
As for Ross, James thinks he'll take a bit of a dip offensively, but that he'll still be above average. Given Ross' age, that makes sense. I don't expect him to get 300+ PAs like James projects, though (most bench players are projected for more PAs than they're likely to get). ZiPS thinks Ross will hit .239 / .333 / .413, which is a bit higher than James projects but a bit worse than Ross did in 2011. If Ross gets 150-200 PA, he'd be at around 18 to 20 wRC by either system.
Add that up and, barring a major injury, the projection systems think the Braves' catchers should be just as good in 2012 as they were in 2011. They're probably a bit more likely to improve than to decline, too.
That sounds about right to me. I know that McCann is capable of producing far more than those projections, but you have to balance those hopes with injury concerns. I could see McCann topping 100 wRC, but I could also see him missing a couple months and struggling to get past 50. Regardless, I'd say that the Braves are in very good shape at catcher, and are very likely to rank at or near the top of the pack in 2012.
What do you guys think?
Coming up on Wednesday, I take a look at 1st base, where Freddie Freeman certainly held his own in his rookie season.
1 recs | 23 comments
In the same vein...
MLBTR is featuring the free agent class for 2013. How nice to know that the Braves are set at catcher, and that even with a strong group coming up/out, we need not be tempted. In fact, with the exception of Bourn, there are really no big name Atlanta players who qualify as next year’s free agents.
If anyone has figured out how to accelerate the next 41 days, let me know…
TomahawkGuy - January 9, 2012
If anyone has figured out how to accelerate the next 41 days, let me know…
Two words: induced coma
carpengui - January 9, 2012
I saw a Twilight Zone episode where they did that, and it had terrible consequences. Be forewarned. You could wake up in a future in which baseball means nothing.
TheLetter2 - January 9, 2012
I’ve always loved that episode.
king of games - January 9, 2012
Just don’t freeze yourself, like Cartman did.
MatM - January 10, 2012
Raise your hand if your mind read “wRC” as “wRC+” and you were immediately confused by McCann’s low scores.
/raises hand
Ivan the Great - January 9, 2012
Thanks Jacob.
I actually understood all that :-)
Great graphic too. Excellent work
NCChopper - January 9, 2012
Thanks!
Jacob Peterson - January 9, 2012
Henry Blanco???
Are you shi***ng me???
HansonManCrush - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Nope.
He had fewer than 120 PAs, so it isn’t sustainable, obviously. Also, he did it in the D’backs’ park, which is very hitter-friendly (same goes for Montero; put him in Turner Field and his numbers are likely worse than McCann’s).
Jacob Peterson - January 9, 2012
If in a down year
McCann was considered the catcher having the best season of any catcher prior to his oblique injury…I’m not going to worry.
RichieGrogan - January 9, 2012
Great work, great analysis.
TheLetter2 - January 9, 2012
Is WRC park and league adjusted?
Or is that just WRC+?
RaymondBatista - January 9, 2012
just wRC+
andrew.sisson - January 9, 2012
per aeryssports.com
adc62 - January 9, 2012
Nope.
Which is why the D’backs rate ahead of the Braves. Their park is very hitter-friendly, while the Braves’ is pretty neutral (slightly pitcher-friendly).
McCann’s wRC+ was 121, while Miguel Montero’s wRC+ was 116.
Jacob Peterson - January 9, 2012
Awesome stuff.
Looking forward to the next installment.
gilley - January 9, 2012
Thanks!
Jacob Peterson - January 9, 2012
McCann's consistency is amazing.
I wonder what he would be capable of if he was playing a different position.
gilley - January 9, 2012
McCann is even more
There is no doubt that McCann is a big offensive advantage over most other catchers in MLB. I believe he is somewhat of an advantage against the best catchers around. I am a long-time Braves fan and appreciate your effort and am interested in how others see the Braves stacking up against the league. In my opinion, your blog using the wRC stat alone provides an incomplete analysis. No single stat paints the whole picture and every stat has inconsistencies that cause variations in a players resulting number. That Blanco ranked #1 shows the stat can be misleading. You mentioned a player’s home stadium as a factor. In the case of wRC, McCann hitting in the middle of the order is going to get a higher percentage of opportunities to drive in runs and score than a catcher batting in the eighth spot. But in 2011, McCann would be disadvantaged when measured against a catcher also batting in the middle of the order, but on a team with better offensive stats. He spent much of the year surrounded with guys hitting below 220 and corresponding low OBPs. No matter what, McCann ranks at or near the top in most offensive categories for catchers. As you move onto other positions, it would be difficult to be accurate without including more comparisons.
BravesFanSince56 - January 9, 2012
wRC is not at all effected by the hitters around you.
This stat deals in no way with run batted in or runs scored. It is based solely on the results of a single player’s plate appearances. Park factors can effect the number, but it’s a lot to ask for Jacob to give a complete breakdown of all the statistics evaluating the performance of all the players that appeared at each position on the Braves’ team last year.
gilley - January 10, 2012
I stand corrected on wRC Thanks gilley
I had originally thought of the stat as runs or RBIs as Jacob suggested so I looked up wRC and stand corrected. I will also stand by the idea that no single stat paints an accurate picture of how a player played or will play in the future.
I didn’t ask Jacob for a complete breakdown of all stats. I do believe that inclusion of a few strengths and weaknesses such as very good W/K ratio or a very bad Risp stat would add a lot to understanding how our Braves stack up against the competion.
BravesFanSince56 - January 10, 2012
I see what you're saying.
Anytime you’re only looking at one stat, there’s a lot left to be desired in terms of a true analysis of a player’s performance.
I think the beauty of using wRC, though, is that it tells you how many runs a player (or in this case all of the players at a certain position) contributed to your offense. We’re not learning how these players came to amass this amount of production, or the likelihood of sustainability for these players, but with wRC we know how much they contributed in 2011.
That in itself is pretty cool. What we’ve learned is that the Braves’ catchers created more runs for their team than the players of the same position did for any other team. I don’t mean to sound like I’ve misinterpreted you. I know you had no intention of painting this post as useless or uninteresting, but I feel like the information we’ve learned from this post is plenty.
gilley - January 10, 2012
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