MLB.com's Hot Stove crew talks about the Atlanta Braves efforts to trade starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens, what their reasons for trading him might be, and what kind of market might exist for him out there.
All off-season we've said that the young kids are ready to take the reins of a Major League rotation spot. Despite injury concerns with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson to start the season, the Braves seem willing to deal Jurrjens (if you believe all the rumors). Though the talking heads in the video are right when they say that Jurrjens' trade value is greatly diminished right now.
I've been conflicted about this all off-season. I began the off-season by pointing out that Jurrjens was the most likely pitcher to be traded due to his increasing salaries through arbitration. As we learned more about the uncertainty of the TH-es in the rotation the more I felt it was probably best to hold onto JJ until everyone was mostly healthy. Then there was that whole "we want a Greinke-like return" thing, then we realized that ain't happening.
Where I am right now is kind of in the hold-on-to-him camp. If the team trades him, I want to see them get maximum value, and that might be more achievable by proving he is fully healthy with a strong spring training. That would also help the Braves cover for all the other health question marks, and help them determine if the kinds are ready to step in.
Actually, opening the season with a few starts from Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, and Randall Delgado -- two of them filling in for the still rehabbing Hanson and Hudson -- might be a good way to measure which one of them is ready to take a rotation spot (or which two of them are ready, meaning the Braves would then be free to trade Jurrjens). Early season trades are pretty rare, so it may be closer to mid-year before Atlanta could free up a spot in the rotation if Jurrjens is not moved in spring training.
There are scenarios aplenty. I guess right now I'd kind of like to see the Braves hold on to him, but it should be clear by now that the Braves won't be holding on to Jurrjens for long. I'd say there's a 95% chance that Jurrjens is traded at some point in 2012. Younger, cheaper, better options exist in the Braves system.
UPDATE 12:30pm:
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports posted an article regarding Jurrjens, and mentions a couple of point (most of which we already knew):
Jair Jurrjens has drawn some interest from the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rockies, Tigers, Rangers and others. However, while Jurrjens is a terrific young starter, he appears to be behind Oakland's Gio Gonzalez on the pecking order of most teams, possibly because of potential concerns about the knee injury that hampered him at the end of last year.
Figures that Gio would be ahead of JJ on teams' wish lists.
The Braves also have suggested that they will not trade Jurrjens within their division, thereby eliminating the active Marlins as a potential suitor.
Der. I think the Braves really want to trade him out of the league.
The Braves say they are only considering trading Jurrjens because they have a wealth of starting pitchers, and a need for improving their offense. Jurrjens' arbitration number is expected to be very high, as well, and Atlanta has been limited financially this winter.
Both mentioned above by me.
One other issue with the Braves is that their history of trading starting pitchers is so good that some others teams are leery about trading with them. It seems they know just went to deal pitchers, right at the height of their value.
They've gotten lucky, but they've also never traded a pitcher this young with Jurrjens' kind of track record (HoRam is not a comp here).
0 recs | 59 comments
Looks more and more like the team is staying pat unless really wowed. Wren’s asking prices have had teams scoffing, basically. Which is a good thing for us. Better to be scoffed at than ripped off.
michaeldlee1480 - December 22, 2011
I would hold onto him as well.
At least till mid point. He could prove he is healthy. It could give the organization time to get Huddy and Hanson well, and to try out the young guys to figure which young guy will fill his spot (if traded).
Not to mention if he has another stellar first half like last year, his value could sky rocket and you could pull off a monster mid season trade and truly get maximum value for him. There of course is the risk that he doesn’t have a good half or proves doubters wrong, but that is a risk I would be willing to take.
It just doesn’t make sense to trade him now.
And I wouldn’t trade Prado AT ALL. He is the perfect player to extend. Hardworking. Good player. Solid clubhouse guy. Loyal (would probably give a home town discount). Plays multiple positions with solid defense. It just doesn’t make sense to trade him ever.
I am just somewhat perplexed.
MikeJolly - December 22, 2011
It makes sense to trade him if you get good pieces in return….if you can get a stud prospect or two along with an ML ready LF, for example. That’s just my opinion…
michaeldlee1480 - December 22, 2011
Would 5 yrs/$30 mil be fair for Prado?
Broccoman - December 22, 2011
I'd
Do that
HansonManCrush - December 22, 2011 via mobile
I think Prado would be OK with the years, but 6 mil/year is seriously low. He’s going to beat that in his last year of arby alone unless he has a terrible year. I think 4/36 is not only fair, but could get it done. I’d shy away from going 5 years.
cloudeight - December 22, 2011
5 years should cover his prime and gave him a good shot to be a lifetime Brave. That said, he’s not a star player but a solid player, and we can’t pay him star money. $7mil per is a fair price for a 4 year deal. I’d be willing to bump up some, but $9mil is too much.
Broccoman - December 22, 2011
Not if there are cheaper options…sure if there aren’t.
michaeldlee1480 - December 22, 2011
I think he would accept 4 / $20M, if he knew he was staying put.
bighop - December 22, 2011
+1
He loves the ATL
HansonManCrush - December 22, 2011 via mobile
I agree
Plus he has moved his Mom here from Venezuela. He seems very much a Momma’s boy, I imagine he wants her comfortable, not moving about continuously
bighop - December 22, 2011
Given the state of things in Venezuela (including the recent kidnapping), I’d move everybody remotely related to me if I possibly could.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
Remember the week Prado missed in 2010 with stress headaches? It was right after his Mom went back to Venezuala on Visa issues.
bighop - December 22, 2011
No, I didn’t match that up… fair point.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
Plus, his Mom sends him to the cages late when he’s struggling. She’s a benefit to the team! LOL
bighop - December 22, 2011
I don't think we need to extend him right now
we have him under control, and have some nice prospects coming up the line (terdo, salcedo, drury) could be ready to replace him at 3b in 2014. if these guys fizzle, then we have plenty of time to make the right move.
M.artin V. P.rado - December 22, 2011
I don’t have a lot of faith in Terdo sticking in 3B, but I can see him in LF. Prado may also be needed at 2B eventually.
Broccoman - December 22, 2011
Dead on the money with the Terdo comment.
bighop - December 22, 2011
may*
i absolutely agree, but I also think pastornicky/simmons could be there. it’s too early to tell, and therefore too early to extend
M.artin V. P.rado - December 22, 2011
Pastornicky I can see being our 2B once Uggla leaves in 4 years or is traded away.
I don’t know if he has the arm for 3B without having the arm for SS.
If he’s got the arm for SS, the only way he plays 3B is if he and SImmons both reach full potential. That’s unlikely but I hope that’s the case.
In such a case Prado becomes very expendable unless we deal Uggla. (If Uggla has a good year and Pastornicky does as well, I’d really consider trading Uggla for prospects or a LF)
Broccoman - December 22, 2011
I don’t think the Braves expect Hanson to be rehabbing at the beginning of the year, it’s much more likely that he’ll actually be our opening day starter.
I definitely want to keep Prado while Chipper is still at 3B, but I also agree that standing pat with Jurrjens makes sense. There are so many question marks to sort out in the rotation, so if no one will actually give us a good haul for him then it just isn’t worth it at this point. Better to trade him mid-season when we know more (although there is the issue of trading him to another contender where he could hurt us).
Sir Stealth - December 22, 2011
You hit on a great point – right now, we kinda get the luxury of having 29 other teams to deal with that all want to improve… the [very few] deadline-desperate teams willing to give up more are the ones we don’t really wanna help (unless we have a total melt-down, and nobody expects that).
I was also thinking that other than providing injury-depth-protection, we may as well try and move JJ now anyway — just because we expect the drop-off to be negligible as the four horsemen ride into town. That way we get future value and stop blocking guys that are ready to help today.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
One thing about holding on to Jurrjens that seems to be slipping through the cracks is future arbitration for the young pitchers. We are going to get ROCKED in arbitration in a few years. Delaying a clock or two is not a bad thing.
bighop - December 22, 2011
Yeah, but we already gotta do arb with Jurrjens this year if we keep him, so it’s a wash, really.
Without JJ, the rotation nominally stacks up as Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, and Teheran or Delgado. So one of those guys starts in AAA anyway.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
We can afford JJ’s arbitration this year, Can we afford Heyward, Freeman, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Pastornicky, Kimbrel, Venters, Vizcaino and Medlen all at the same time? Maybe, but it’s something that needs to be thought out.
bighop - December 22, 2011
Heck, I left out Hanson. That could be 12 arb eligible guys at different levels at one time.
bighop - December 22, 2011
Arb reasoning is why it might make sense to consider a trade of Hanson and not JJ.
Much higher return, and JJ I can see replacing Hudson as the staff vet in 2 years.
Broccoman - December 22, 2011
I agree
I’ve been told I was an idiot plenty of times, but I’d try to keep Jurrjens long term and let Hanson argue about his contract with somebody else.
bighop - December 22, 2011
I agree with you on this one. Plus, I just dont trust Hanson’s shoulder.
swainzy - December 22, 2011 via mobile
Exactly
Jurrjens knee is less risk than Hanson’s shoulder a year or two down the line.
bighop - December 22, 2011
Keep Jair, sign a MI like Theriot, consider trading JJ mid season. We have a good team already.
bighop - December 22, 2011
I couldn’t see them trading him at the deadline. It’s now or next off season. I agree though, sign a back up IF and let’s get ready for ST.
Braves24 - December 22, 2011
So many...
Of the Braves underperformed last year…so few exceeded or even met expectations. If no moves were made between now and Spring Training, I like our chances to win the East!
TomahawkGuy - December 22, 2011
Once again.....
talking trade, speculating trades, but the team not doing anything.
EricT. - December 22, 2011
With the injury concerns of Hanson and Hudson, I believe JJ doesn’t get traded until next season unless Wren get a package that maximize his value. Every since Wren has been the GM, he has shown zero urgency of trading his pitching until he thinks the time is right.
Braves24 - December 22, 2011
No kidding
The man does value his pitching. Thank God!
bighop - December 22, 2011
Well let's break it down further...
Team-by-team:
ORIOLES: Well, given the public machinations over Adam Jones lately, I don’t know that there’s a deal with Dan Duquette anywhere on the horizon. And that’s sad, considering that the once-proud orange birds are still gonna be hammered by ever other team in the AL East for the foreseeable future… despite their manager’s best efforts.
RED SOX: Speaking of that AL East, the Sox aren’t in on Darvish, but…
. Apparently, they would prefer signing Koruda (who prefers the West Coast) or trading for Gio Gonzalez…. and so does everybody else. Any trade we’d want to do with them would necessarily include 3B prospect Will Middlebrooks, since most of their good prospects are a long way away.BLUE JAYS: These guys are loaded with high-grade pitching prospects, and could probably part with a couple. Position players? Catcher D’Arnaud is probably untouchable, the rest are a ways off. In the Majors, there’s a huge dropoff after Jose Bautista in the outfield (and that’s including Rasmus). Oh, and most of the rest hit lefty… Rajai Davis being the best of the righties. I dunno… this looks to be a tough matchup.
ROCKIES: Well, according to a PurpleRow insider just 2 days ago….
That said, they need pitching and we need outfielders. On paper, it’s still the best matchup of all these teams.TIGERS: I originally thought this could be the better matchup… odd since Jurrjens was stolen from Detroit originally. The A’s are said to want Detroit’s #1, #2, and #5 prospects for Gio Gonzo…. they balked at that, of course, but the Braves would likely not want those guys…. maybe one of their multiple LHP prospects, but that’s it… their best prospects are still quite young. So this would come down to whether the Tigers would be willing to part with a major league outfielder for JJ (+/- others). But even that has serious flaws: Boesch would be another lefty (and the most untouchable). Austin Jackson would be interesting if you can tolerate his strikeouts. Then there’s Magglio… except that he hasn’t had a “Magglio” type year since 2007… and 2003 before that. At age 38, you have to think he’s done.
RANGERS: Darvish. Darvi$h. Beyond that, Andrew Bailey…. maybe Oswalt. But that only so that they could flip somebody for a 1B or CF guy, according to MLBTR yesterday. So I just don’t see a lot of smoke on this one at all, unless Cruz was involved somehow.
So, I just don’t see a lot happening here… at least among those named squads.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
I think there is a good fit possibly in TOR with a trade based around Travis Snider. He has never really broken out but also has never been given a full season to try. If the Braves think they can figure him out they could let him share time with Prado in LF while Prado fills in around the diamond. He still has major power potential and is still very young so it’s hard to tell how TOR or ATL would value him.
bbxxj - December 22, 2011 via mobile
Snider and Rasmus are the intriguing guys… and yeah, either guy in a swap with JJ might be a case of both teams looking at ‘potential’… and if any team would be willing to pull the trigger quick, it’s certainly the Jays.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
I was thinking the same thing
HARDBODI82 - December 22, 2011
A deal with the Red Sox
for Middlebrooks and Bogaerts would suit me JUUUUUUUUUUUUUST fine.
JoelGuzman'sScout - December 22, 2011
Great post, but my conclusion, oddly, was that if a trade does happen it’s going to come out of nowhere.
GumpBrave - December 22, 2011
Agreed — the stupid part is that all of these “baseball insiders” could be doing the same work I just did and draw their own conclusions on the viability of a trade with these teams. But no… in a twitter world, they simply report “Team A is talking to Team B about Player X”, … and that’s it.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
I'd still
do a Rasmus for Jurrjens swap.
drumzalicious - December 22, 2011
Just move JJ
At this point do anything. This team as presently constructed isn’t going to the playoffs. I don’t believe in painc moves but there has to be an outfielder available. I’d love for this team to be working on a Beltran deal but Liberty is probably being lame about that.
rocket8188 - December 22, 2011
It did in 2010, and the 2011 team was similar in construction.
This team could even win the division in 2012 if bouncebacks happen and Freeman doesn’t have Heyward’s sophomore slump.
Broccoman - December 22, 2011
Other stuff
carpengui - December 22, 2011
I wonder...
if Adam Jones is to Hunter Pence
what Nick Markakis is to Michael Bourn….
although, salary figures could suck with Markakis.
jwrocks - December 22, 2011
Dont forget about medlen
HARDBODI82 - December 22, 2011
Let’s just say that I won’t be nominating JJ or Prado for the cover of either the 2012 Media Guide, the Maple Street Press Preview mag, or the Clubhouse Collection Catalog.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
Robert Fish?
jwrocks - December 22, 2011
Gio is off of the board.
With Gio and Yu off the board, JJ has to look more enticing to clubs looking to add a top of the rotation starter. I mean who’s left, AJ Burnett?
cashew - December 22, 2011
that deal should definitely make things a bit more interesting.
although with the holidays coming up we might have to wait a bit more.
nuftjedi - December 22, 2011
True.
I wish he would have went to the Red Sox. The Nationals are building a young frontline pitching staff. Actually, that kind of sounds familiar :)
cashew - December 22, 2011
Makes me wonder...
if we should’ve made a run at Mat Latos…pair him at the top with Hudson and Hanson and you’d be set!
jwrocks - December 22, 2011
He may be on the Nats now, but check this...
Nice.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
+1
Greg Walker’s tip of the week: When you face Gio, don’t let the bat leave your shoulder.
cashew - December 22, 2011
As to "who's left?"...
Supposedly the Blue Jays and Padres have been making noise about Garza… but it’s a bit of a mystery whether Garza is even available.
carpengui - December 22, 2011
Epstein said everyone is available
austinhb - December 24, 2011
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