Seriously, this trade just will not go away. The longest running off-season rumor between the Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies that would primarily involve Martin Prado and Seth Smith is apparently still going strong. MLB.com Rockies beat writer Thomas Harding rumors us this:
The Rockies could use one more bat, specifically at second base. The Braves need a left fielder. None of this has changed since the offseason began and reports surfaced of the possibility of the Rockies sending left-handed hitting outfielder Seth Smith to Atlanta for right-handed hitting infielder Martin Prado. Dialogue between the teams continued through last week, and word Monday was the possibility of a trade remains alive.
I might actually hold my breath until Mark Bowman or David O'Brien shoot this rumor down, which I image will happen in three, two ...
But really, I think we've beat the reasons to death as to why Smith would not be a good fit for the Braves; he's a lefty with a bad platoon split against left-handers (not something the Braves need more of), and the production that is there is aided by the mile highness of his home stadium.
Rumor, rumor, go away.
0 recs | 146 comments
Yeah, as much as I want to see the Braves make some kind of move
I hope this deal disappears for good very soon.
Bronn - December 19, 2011
Or that they finally cave and give...
Wheeler and Fowler instead of Smith.
Mr. Sanchez - December 21, 2011
WE HAVE MATT DIAZ AND ERIC HINSKE
That can play Left field. Oh, and they are right and left. Sounds good to me.
Atlanta Braves Fan - December 19, 2011
sorry but absofreakinglutely not
While Diaz may be a great platoon partner to go against left handed pitching, that’s less than 20% of the games.
The part of the platoon going against right handed pitching needs to be the better, and Hinske simply isnt. His BA against RHPitching for his career is 260, last year was 250. Smith’s career BA is 290 against RHP and last year it was 299. Smith’s OBPis also 20 points higher, and his slugging is higher (which, sure, is inflated by coors field).
Point is, Smith is worthy of starting against right hand pitching. Hinske is not even close.
I would even go as far as to say that if Diaz could mirror what smith does against lefties, as a unit, they would be better than about anyone we could get. A 300 avg and 260 obp with 20 HR is far better than we will get on the market for a reasonable cost.
And there’s more. Smith, as a pinch hitter, is batting 336 with a 430 obp with an OPS over 1000. To compliment that, Diaz is a capable pinch hitter. So not only would we have solid starting platoon, but really capable pinch hitters.
willlinn - December 20, 2011
and more importantly
if we make the trade, it’s for the prospects we get. Smith could put us in a good spot next year if we platoon him with diaz. A price I am willing to pay for a guy that can actually play CF the year after next or third base…
willlinn - December 20, 2011
No.
thenightstallion - December 19, 2011
He’s a perfect platoon and overall road numbers were great (.282/.358/.456).
BTW
Hinske vs RH: .754 OPS
Smith vs RH: .891 OPS
If we can get one of Arenado or Wheeler. Or Blackmon plus a really good guy. I’d take it.
ShawnG - December 19, 2011
We could sign J.D. Drew for almost free
And he’s a better player than Seth Smith.
By the way, you just used unadjusted numbers for Smith, who plays his home games at Coors field. Despite that, his career OPS against right handed hitters is STILL not as good as J.D. Drew’s.
Seriously. 2 years, $6 million for J.D. Drew, and we’re better off than if we make this Prado/Smith trade. Kill this deal, please!
Bronn - December 19, 2011
+1
SouthernPanther - December 19, 2011
JD Drew hit RH to the tune of .633 last year. He’s done.
ShawnG - December 19, 2011
One bad year doesn't necessarily mean he's done
He does have some mileage on his knees, but he’s not THAT old. And he can still play the outfield pretty well. I mean, he’s a whopping 3 months older than Lance Berkman, who just had a huge bounceback year. Heck, Carlos Beltan is about a year and four months younger than Drew, and he’s going to get a three year deal, most likely. He’s a year and a half younger than Derek Jeter, and whole lot younger than Chipper Jones.
Even old guys can slump. At the price tag I’m proposing, I bed he’d be a great value, especially if we can use Prado enough to keep him fresh.
Bronn - December 19, 2011
you are hoping
and what’s worse, youre trashing someone elses logic to put in your own hopeful reasoning that an old guy with a shitty season will bounce back. Why in the world would we want to take taht risk?
willlinn - December 20, 2011
Because it is low risk high reward
and we could keep Prado, so even if he is a bust Prado could fill in, where in the case if we get Smith and he busts, Prado isn’t there to fill in
austinhb - December 20, 2011
And even if we don't sign J.D. Drew
I still wouldn’t do this deal. My point is that there are guys like Smith, only better, that can be acquired easily.
Bronn - December 20, 2011
I wouldn't take one bad year, in which he only played 81 games, as the end all be all.
For cheap, he could really be a good buy low candidate
SouthernPanther - December 19, 2011
hitting to the tune of
.633 is GREAT.
unless you’re talking about slugging %, which you didn’t state.
JoelGuzman'sScout - December 20, 2011
Well, I think he meant OPS
.633 slugging…is also great.
Bronn - December 20, 2011
It was OPS. Very bad.
ShawnG - December 20, 2011
no worries.
JoelGuzman'sScout - December 20, 2011
Bronn
Make no mistake….. I will rec. you on this one.
I am tired of this one. Seth Smith is in no way what we should be looking for in a trade …much less for Prado. Especially when we could grab Drew for practically free.
uggh I wish this rumor would just die
Santaklose11 - December 19, 2011
Agreed
We could have Prado AND J.D. Drew, basically platoon them, keep both guys fresh. And they both (apparently) play good outfield defense! So there’s no downside-the risk/reward quotient for adding Drew at this point is nothing. You’d basically be paying him like a fourth outfielder, when he still has a chance to produce like a starter, and you don’t have to give up players to get him.
I’m utterly unimpressed with Seth Smith as a potential outfielder on this team.
Bronn - December 19, 2011
+1
totally agree
SouthernPanther - December 19, 2011
Why do people keep implying that Drew could be acquired for cheap & “practically free”? Throughout his career Drew has proven that he’s a greedy bastard. Do yall have some inside knowledge or something?
bloodgimp - December 20, 2011
Be as greedy as you want,
the market still drives your price
austinhb - December 20, 2011
Given that he is a free agent we would not have to trade anyone to get him hence the “practically free” part. Given that he has drawn little interest thus far (I am not sure why though) we would not have to pay an exorbitant amount for him as there are few other competitors to drive up the price.
THAT is why everyone keeps implying that he is to be had for cheap and practically free….
also see austinhb’s comment below in regards to his greediness
Santaklose11 - December 20, 2011
this
would be a million times better than trading for Smith
Braves24 - December 19, 2011
Arenado is not going anywhere
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
Not without Arenado/Blackman
I still have faith in FW to make the right decision
Beachy Keen - December 19, 2011
If we can get one of their CF prospects then it'd be decent
I’m not sure why we love Seth Smith so much apparently
SouthernPanther - December 19, 2011
Someone please shoot me in the ingrown hair on my pinkie toe....
The thought of a move like this makes me want to toilet paper franks house. There is only so many times I can be brainwashed into believing frank wren….
Let’s just hope the beat writers are bored and want to banter about trivialities.
Klemson Krash - December 19, 2011
Do not want
Braves24 - December 19, 2011
Prado for Tulo
Straight up
ATLandUNC - December 19, 2011
we all know prado is worth way more than Tulo...
plausible trades only please =P
SouthernPanther - December 19, 2011
Prado has taught us to diversify our portfolios
walknbalk - December 19, 2011
And he's done wonders for our PA's dramatic timing.
Bronn - December 19, 2011
Yeah
Tulo only plays one position. Versatility FTW.
BrockSamson - December 20, 2011
All right – Tulo AND Cargo, then.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Dude... We could easily do jj and prado for tulowitzki and cargo...
We got uggla for a backup if and relief pitcher…
Klemson Krash - December 19, 2011
J-Freak - December 19, 2011
When fail reachs a whole new level
….including spelling
Santaklose11 - December 20, 2011
Can we please put this to bed
Prado was bed-ridden with a staph infection at one point last year. You just don’t come back 100% from that right away. I’m not saying he’ll be 2010 Prado next season but he will almost certainty better. He is one player we can not afford to trade.
RichieGrogan - December 19, 2011
SETH SMITH
SETH SMITH SETH SMITH SETH SMITH SETH SMITH SETH SMITH
Ever notice how these rumors conveniently are always started by the Rockies’ beat writers? Gee, I wonder why that might be.
SETH SMITH SETH SMITH SETH SMITH.
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2011
It’s surprising that so few people seem to realize this.
gilley - December 20, 2011
Given the propensity of the Braves office to keep things quiet about deals...
… it’s got to be killing them that apparently everything in Dan O’Dowd’s office is an open secret.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Yes, exactly. The Rockies beat writers seem to think that the Braves want to roll over and give up a versatile (right handed) all-star 2B and team leader for a left handed platoon outfielder that the Rockies no longer need or want.
FourScore199 - December 20, 2011
I havent seen mention of Chris Nelson as a target in the Prado trades. He’s seemingly fell out of grace in Colorado and could provide cheap replacement for Prado at all positions, including SS. New trade idea with the Rockies:
Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado for Seth Smith, Chris Nelson, and Tim Wheeler. This will provide salary relief enough for the Braves to go after Cody Ross. Cody and Seth platooning in LF, Nelson providing backup all of the infield, and Wheeler showcasing at AAA for the future CF job. Lots ot team control there. I like it!
ryan c - December 20, 2011
no
without getting Arenado as part of a return package, we should NOT be trading JJ and Prado to the Rockies.
JoelGuzman'sScout - December 20, 2011
The Rockies are flat not interested in Jurrjens
O’Dowd said so last week
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
no way we trade Prado AND JJ to the Rockies without getting Arenado in that deal. IF Wren made that trade to Rockies without getting Arenado, I would give Wren a F————————- for the off-season. That would be one of the worst trades that I could imagine if Wren did this. I don’t get why our own fans are selling our own players soooo short and giving other players on other teams too much credit as in this case…
rockybull - December 20, 2011
✦
I’m thinking this rumor won’t die because FW insists on getting Arenado in the deal or no dice.
CMassey - December 20, 2011
I'll pull a Justin here...
if Wren gets Arenado from Colorado, I’ll give him a BJ.
Scott Coleman - December 20, 2011
Who…Justin?
TBuzz - December 20, 2011 via mobile
lol
JoelGuzman'sScout - December 20, 2011
Where is Justin? He hasn't graced the blog in a while...
jwrocks - December 20, 2011
King....
Mr. Sanchez - December 21, 2011
Thank you Scott...
I’ve always wanted to ChopMaster my signature…
Klemson Krash - December 20, 2011
Of course you're not the only one who can play that game...
… the Internet has long memories.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
well played sir...
well played.
Klemson Krash - December 20, 2011
*yawn*
I’ll expect this to be debunked in the morning.
Anyone think maybe the Braves keep leaking they’re interested in Smith so another team ups their offer for Prado?
drumzalicious - December 20, 2011 via mobile
No. Jacob is right. It’s the Rockies leaking that the Braves are interested in Smith. They’re obviously pushing that guy hard. They believe he’s got some value thanks to his production, low cost and the fact that he’ll be under team control for a few years. Colorado has been shopping Smith all offseason, and they seem determined to get something for him. The Braves almost certainly have zero interest in Seth Smith.
gilley - December 20, 2011
As I've stated previously
I would not mind a Matty and Seth split in Left, as long as we get Wheeler in the deal. if not then no way I do this.
Prado < Smith AND WHEELER!!
With Wheels the Braves get their CFer OTF along with a fill-in for LF until sum1 is ready 2 take that spot in two years, like Mr. Terd himself!
chicagobullies - December 20, 2011 via mobile
Wheeler is “potentially” CFer OTF, no guarantee he does anything in the show. I’d honestly rather trade JJ for Smith and Wheeler than Prado. I personally wouldn’t trade either one for that package, but that’s just me. I like that Prado can play anywhere and potentially take over 3B when Chipper retires, otherwise we would likely have to overpay for one in FA or hope that Salcedo continues to develop(again no guarantee there too).
rockybull - December 20, 2011
Well said. Trading Prado for Smith and Wheeler doesn’t make any sense because the Braves would be trading a right handed outfielder for a left handed outfielder and a left handed OF prospect.
FourScore199 - December 20, 2011
Uh,
Terdo is spending the entire 2012 season at 3B.
rxadam - December 20, 2011
So what? Braves are just going to try Terdo out at 3B, but from everything that I have heard and read, he pretty much has zero chance to stick at 3B in the majors. If he makes it to the majors with the Braves, it WILL be at LF, otherwise he just won’t be good enough or he gets traded.
rockybull - December 20, 2011
Did you know Seth Smiths first name is GARY?
When we play in NY the idiot fans can chant GARY GARY….
God I hope we don’t trade for Gary Smith.
How about JJ and Prado for Wheeler, Chris Nelson and Arenado?
Heh just kidding.
roberty - December 20, 2011
While I’m all about FW making a move, this one…not so much. I think we can do a lot better than Seth Smith. Hell, sign Beltran if need be, but don’t give up Prado for Smith, just for the sake of making a move.
DolphinNation - December 20, 2011
rumor, please go away
why anyone would trade Prado for a platoon player with inflated #‘s is beyond me. there’s a million seth smith’s out there. there’s only one Martin Prado!
russdigler - December 20, 2011
Because an elite CF prospect and a stopgap LF would be included
ShawnG - December 20, 2011
There's no mention of an elite CF from the rockies. They dont even have that prospect. Just a seth smith v2.0 type.
russdigler - December 20, 2011
What if we combine the 2 latest rumors?
*O’s get Seth Smith from Rockies, JJ and a B level prospect (Hoover or Pasty) from Braves
*Braves get A. Jones, Hardy from O’s, Wheeler from Rockies
*Rockies get Prado and a C level prospect from Braves3 way deal with O’s and Rockies
sunshine18 - December 20, 2011
Rockies would ok that deal
jlbroxfan - December 20, 2011
I love 3 ways!
Klemson Krash - December 20, 2011
nope
even the Rockies own beat guy said they don’t want to give up Wheeler in a package for Prado, which is what we should be and are demanding. The Rockies are floating the Smith to the Braves rumor out there in hopes that another team that may want Seth Smith comes along and makes them an offer that doesn’t involve the Rockies giving up Wheeler
leedawg - December 20, 2011
thats why we sweeten the deal with a prospect, maybe our 2nd best Delgado?
sunshine18 - December 20, 2011
your scenario said a C level prospect, which Delgado certainly is not
I’m also going to bet if we trade JJ, there is no way we move one of the 4 horsemen as well with the injury concerns around Hanson and Hudson
leedawg - December 20, 2011
you seem to have missed the part where I said our 2nd best Delgado. Dimasther Delgado. Of course I hate to trade I guy who’s name is pronounced DA MASTER
sunshine18 - December 20, 2011
classic Delgado mixup
I read it as our 2nd best, Delgado
leedawg - December 20, 2011
I wouldn't read that as "Rockies have Wheeler off limits"
They’d prefer not to go there, but they could, and should, go there.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
so
the Rockies are only willing to give up Smith for Prado?….LOL
Braves24 - December 20, 2011
Because Wheeler is the only player in the minor league system?
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
no
but he is one of the few that we would want.
Braves24 - December 20, 2011
It doesn't seem like Prado is getting much interest elsewhere at the moment
So I just see it as a bargaining tactic, trying to instead supplement with a lesser prospect.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
Prado’s probably got lot of interest. He was linked to 10+ teams during the Winter Meetings by several sources.
The Braves are notoriously tight-lipped about these things, the Rockies pretty clearly are not (not from this instance alone – look at all the trades they’ve made and how many things got reported prior to a deal being struck). Inferring that there’s no interest because the only rumors are coming from Denver media isn’t exactly a strong argument. I’d place as much likelihood on the Braves not really wanting to deal Prado, which has been their stance the entire time.
-C
cthabeerman - December 20, 2011
This is true too
Mostly though, I think O’Dowd’s supposed insistence of not wanting to include Wheeler is your run-of-the-mill negotiation tactic of trying to get the best bartered deal. I don’t take it to mean he won’t deal Wheeler, or further, that he’s only ok with Smith/Prado straight up
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
The 5 Most Averagest Players of 2011
Check out number 1.
sgrapevine - December 20, 2011
yawn...
thanks for the link… i hope FW reads this.
Unless we get the farm w/ him, I don’t care to pick up Seth Smith… he has to be a throw in to whatever deal to make it worthwhile as everyone who has commented above has said.
Klemson Krash - December 20, 2011
Yeah...
That post got me started on about two straight hours of browsing a ton of junk stats.
If anybody hasn’t already, you need to check out Junk Stats.
A good way to alleviate some off-season blues.
sgrapevine - December 20, 2011
I'm managing my need w/ organizing my keeper/dynasty league for draft season...
I’m so bored at work. there is NOTHING going on… I will respond on here to just about anything just to keep from being so bored I jump out my window… (it’s a 1 story building so it wouldn’t even entertain me for very long)…
Klemson Krash - December 20, 2011
The boredom is terrible
I’ve been a professional chef for the last 6 years, working 55+ hour weeks… Just got done with my first semester or full-time school (sans job), and now have a month+ of drinking and family. I’m going to be severely hungover and broke by Jan 4th… two weeks before classes start. fml.
Thank god basketball starts soon.
sgrapevine - December 20, 2011
I sincerely hope you're not looking forward to the NBA....
That sport hurts my brain. The days of Bird and Jordan are long dead.
Klemson Krash - December 20, 2011
You do realize that the Braves had just four position players in 2011 that were above average, correct??
-C
cthabeerman - December 20, 2011
Yeah...
I’m actually not a huge detractor of the Smith deal. His l/r splits are a bit worrisome, but he OPSed at ~.812 on the road last year. Which is way above most of our position players.
sgrapevine - December 20, 2011
I really HATE this rumor too. Trading one of the only decent right handed hitters on the team for a left handed platoon outfielder makes no sense. Someone else mentioned it above but trading Jurrjens for Smith and Wheeler makes more sense than trading Prado for SMith and Wheeler. At least Prado and Smith could platoon in LF with Prado also getting a lot of playing time at 3B.
FourScore199 - December 20, 2011
That’s the one thing: if you lose Prado, you MUST have a third base backup available, and unless the Rox wanna go ahead and give the job to Arenado now, there hasn’t been one mentioned at any point in these rumors.
I actually think that a Smith/Wheeler deal isn’t bad – but more than a CF for 2013, we gotta have 3B covered for 2012. Of course, I’m not sure what the Rockies wanna do with the position, either: six guys played third for them in 2011. The guys with the most innings (Wiggington) is gone, and they just hired Cuddyer, who could play some there, though the OF seems more likely given their desire not to block Arenado.
Hmmm….Is this what Drew Sutton was signed for?
carpengui - December 20, 2011
3B will probably be a hodgepodge in Colorado
With Pacheco, LeMahieu, Wood, Nelson and Cuddyer getting innings there (barring new acquisitions) until Arenado is deemed ready. That seems to be anywhere from Opening Day to September, going off statements from the front office. If Arenado is on fire in Spring Training, he will probably get the job.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
Exactly what I was about to ask you directly….except for this: who is reasonably expendable from that group is Prado is indeed moved over to y’all?
carpengui - December 20, 2011
I'm having trouble with your wording
But Prado would play 2B, presumably, if Arenado started, 2B or 3B if not depending on who else steps up. Pacheco and Cuddyer are the only options the Rox would actually value. LeMahieu/Wood/Nelson/Young/Herrera are all expendable, or even cut worthy.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
Yeah, lemme try again...
Clearly, Prado gives us LF coverage today: I believe that Diaz/Smith is probably no worse than his production there, and Smith is probably the odd man out in Denver right now. I do think Prado would absolutely mash out there in those wide gaps in Coors Field.
However, yes: if he’s moved, we would need a guy to back up Chipper at 3rd, and maybe be an off-the-bench defensive sub there as well. That’s what I’m looking for from your insight… some decent value, a bit above a non-tender kind of guy.
Meanwhile, we are clearly looking to the future a bit and hoping that Wheeler could be made available given the thought that he seems blocked for at least 3 years (Cuddyer/Fowler/Cargo +/- Blackmon, though I see him as <Wheeler overall). That probably requires a bit more from our side, but I think we could find an arm out there someplace.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Ah, so you're looking for a 3B above nontender level to go from COL to ATL in the deal as well?
Honestly, the only such player the Rox had in that category has already been traded this offseason (Stewart).
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
I was afraid you’d say that! And of course Wiggy went to the Phils (which I’m perfectly happy with, btw!).
Yeah, I am looking for that. For if we do lose Prado (even in a “good” deal), the second thing people will be asking is “Okay, now who backs up 3rd???”. Drew Sutton’s signing MIGHT be the answer to that question… not sure yet.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Well, that certainly explains this news:
carpengui - December 20, 2011
So you are saying we have a chance at Arenado?????
Hehe…Get on the phone Frank!
jdmarine - December 20, 2011
Git er dun, Wren!
Yakker - December 20, 2011
Yep
This makes a TON of sense, and I was hoping they would go this route. He can be the OD 3B, and by the time Arenado is definitely ready, Blake will be hurt anyway.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
more clarity: Blackmon<Wheeler ultimately. Blackmon certainly has good value as 4th OF, Wheeler is a starter — somewhere.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
I personally feel both are in danger of 4th OF territory ultimately
Wheeler more in a Seth Smith way. Wheeler struggles with LHP just as much as Smith, if not more.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
Huh. That kinda makes for a head-scratcher as to why a trade hasn’t happened if what we’re all hearing is true. The Rox have themselves in a bit of a box with a dozen outfielders, so somebody’s gotta go… and if Wheeler’s got some holes… well, I guess you still gotta play your cards to the end of the hand, eh?
BTW – thanks for coming over – good info… and yeah, I think I’m the only one fixated on a 3rd base backup guy if Prado leaves…. the Arenado thing was a pipe dream for a while… or maybe just a minute.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
I'm as confused with the FO moves this offseason as anyone
Purple Row now has a meme about acquiring all starting pitchers under 25yo, all replacement level spare infielders and all the left-handed outfielders. We have enough of each to field 2-3 teams
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
you are not
One of my biggest reasons why I don’t like the idea of trading Prado is the hole it leaves at third
Braves24 - December 20, 2011
Glad to know! But for sure, that’s been less of a topic than … well, everything else about this thing.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Baseball Prospectus calculates a multi-year platoon split that weights recent years more heavily but takes into account the last several seasons. Some numbers:
Smith multi-year vs. RHP: .290 TAv
Diaz multi-year vs. LAP: .283 TAv
Prado career: .271 TAv
And remember, TAv accounts for home park. So I’m not sure how everyone is so confident that Prado is more productive than a Smith/Diaz platoon.
tgthree - December 20, 2011 via mobile
these numbers are true, though...
I think the prevailing opinions are:
Prado’s line is increasing…was certainly hurt by his injury year of 2011…
Smith’s has probably peaked…
Diaz is streaky, possibly declining… he has two seasons vs. LHP of over 1.000 OPS, but his last two years have been ‘meh’ at best.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
I am of the opinion that Smith/Diaz have both peaked....
Combine that with the fact that we would be given up a better than average RH bat coming off a very down year. Along with that, the one prospect that doesn’t seem to be off limits that would be of much interest at all to us (Wheeler) has the same possible platoon issues as Smith. I don’t think Prado is a perennial(sp?) All Star 2nd baseman or anything. However, given our issues with Chipper I do think that he is too valuable for us to give up in that trade scenario. To me that is just a one-sided trade.
jdmarine - December 20, 2011
How did anyone arrive at the conclusion that Prado’s “line is increasing.” He has already far exceeded any career projections given his minor-league track record, and even if.he bounces back to his 2010 levels of production (not guaranteed), his production still falls short. What is the evidence for Smith having peaked? Or for Diaz being such a decline risk (I’m aware of what happened in 2011, but there are definite sample-size issues there)? So the trade is an upgrade (if only slight) on offense that also saves $2 million+ and brings us a very good prospect.
It’s not that I think this would be the best trade ever. I just don’t see how it’s supposedly such an obvious mistake.
tgthree - December 20, 2011 via mobile
I don’t think it’s the worst ever, either: if you’re gonna move a guy like Prado, though, you have to make sure it’s going to be at least no worse than what you have, and that there’s a reasonable expectation of an upside – whether now or in the future.
Good example would be the Melky deal for Vazquez. At the time, we mostly figured that we sold high on Vaz (we certainly did!) and that Melky might be serviceable. He wasn’t, really, but then there was this Vizzy kid.
Okay, that wasn’t your question…
re: Prado increasing.
WAR values: 2008-2010…. 1.3 (78 games), 3.2, 4.4. 2011 was only 1.6 of course. Power has also been developing: 2 HR/11/15… and even 13 in a bad 2011.
RBI’s: 36/64/100… then 66 in 2011.
Yes, a cherry-picked a bit – his OPS has gone .838 (limited games)/ .822/.809 before the horrible .687 last year.
I believe you can make the case that he was building offensively year-after-year until 2011.
Matt Diaz: this is weird since he hasn’t ever had a “full” year — max’d out, he had 425 PA’s in 2009. But clearly, he’s being used as a platoon guy/LHP specialist (.329 career vs. .264 vs. RHP), so his numbers are good or bad to the extent he’s used in that role.
In 2009, he had almost double the RHP appearances as LHP. But that year, he was a hittin’ fool, too (.412 vs. LHP).
But while his career LHP avg is .329, he exceeded that last in 2007 and 2009. He’s streaky. Last year we simply bad for him overall… for no particularly known reason – unlike Prado’s performance being down due to injury. So that’s a red flag for Matt… plus his power totally evaporated (.060 ISO). Spring will be interesting for him, and then early on to see if he’s back to form or not…trouble is, he’s not likely to get a lot of playing time to prove himself either way.
Smith. His OPS from 2008 (limited) to 2011 reads .785/.889/.783/.830.
Homers? 15/17/15 (through out his 2008 – not relevant).
RBI? 55/52/59.
Has he peaked? Well, his whole career is a plateau… there is no “peak”. He is simply being used as a platoon guy: 1209 PA’s vs. RHP… 239 vs. LHP lifetime. Consistent, useful – sure. Any sign of a breakout? No, not really. He is what he is.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Ok, peaked isn't really the proper word....
Nonetheless, I don’t think the value is equal. Would it be a gross overpay, no most likely it wouldn’t. However, I still think that it is clearly not equal. carpengui line of thinking matches mine on this issue. Also, I love Caveman, but let’s be honest, the year before he headed out to Pittsburgh he didn’t really have a lot going for him at the plate that season either. That’s two guys to do what one guy can do almost as well and arguably as well or MAYBE better.
Combine that with the fact that I am not high on Blackmon or Wheeler, Arenado is great but unless this is Wren making the “slow play” as someone referenced earlier(I think it was Joel, sorry I can’t remember who for sure?) Then really, what is the point of this trade for us?
jdmarine - December 20, 2011
Well it’s sort of a fallacy that it’s “two guys to do what one guy can do,” because we’re going to carry Diaz either way. Slice it however you want, we end up with a likely upgrade in left-field production, not-insignificant salary savings, and a good prospect who has value regardless of whether you’re high on them or not.
I don’t like talking about it as “equal” or “not equal” because there is such a thing as a win-win trade. It certainly seems to be balance-positive for the Braves.
tgthree - December 20, 2011 via mobile
I understand your point of view....
I just don’t place any value on Wheeler. I just really don’t think he is that good. Most say possible starter, probable 4th OF. I don’t even think he is that good. It would be awesome if I am wrong though!!!!
jdmarine - December 20, 2011
Ammend...
Should have added….I would love to see what some of our guys think of him. I only saw him twice, but wasn’t impressed. So how bout it Gondee, CB, Scott, Ben, Jacob, whoever!LOL You guys got anything to add?
jdmarine - December 20, 2011
I was higher on Wheeler before reading the comments of our friend from PurpleRow. Still think he’s got better upside, but that was nonetheless useful info.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Well I like Blackmon better than Wheeler personally, but that’s sort of irrelevant. A prospect is a prospect, and even if he only turns into a fourth outfielder, that’s way more than no value.
But I respect your opinion on that point…I’ll just say that most people seem to be shooting this down over Smith rather that Wheeler, and I can’t convince you one way or the other about the value of a prospect.
tgthree - December 20, 2011 via mobile
Agree with you....
I think it is being shot down because of Smith also, I like Blackmon better as well.
jdmarine - December 20, 2011
man I wish I could edit my typos. sigh.
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Okay first of all, you can’t use counting stats to evaluate performance trends, especially for players that have gotten wildly differing amounts of playing time. Prado’s isolated power actually decreased over the time period where you cite his HR increases. And for players who play sporadically like Diaz, year-to-year trends are almost meaningless, especially for platoon stats…hence the multi-year splits from BP.
Honestly, I think all these players are WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get). Not much trending going on here. And I think that’s probably the hang-up for lots of fans. Prado is hard-working, team-oriented and beloved. The word “platoon” itself is the exact opposite: unexciting. A Smith/Diaz platoon would be decidedly more boring than Prado. But the numbers suggest it would be more effective.
tgthree - December 20, 2011 via mobile
Another very interesting dissection of Smith’s performance viz. his L/R splits.
sgrapevine - December 20, 2011
What a dull and painful off-season it has been…
GumpBrave - December 20, 2011
Painful? I guess I don’t mind seeing other teams spend stupid dollars (Angels, Rangers, Marlins) and making unbalanced trades (Reds).
carpengui - December 20, 2011
Nah not that. Im just thinking what the lead in to this off-season was, and that was watching numbly as the Braves abruptly left the field for the final time in 2011. In retrospect, it seemed like a whole portion of the season was just cancelled.
It isn’t necessarily actively painful, but the circumstance is.
GumpBrave - December 20, 2011
The folks over at PurpleRow
They really seem convinced that this trade is going to happen. I just don’t see the value in Smith + Wheeler/Prado? I mean, given the needs of our team that is. We gain a decent CF prospect but we leave a hole for 3rd as Chipper will at some point go down with something.(No negativity, I love Chipper, just being honest!)
jdmarine - December 20, 2011
Could Hinske play 3B at all at this point in his career?
Broccoman - December 20, 2011
about as well as Hudson can backup CF i'm sure...
He’s got the bat for it… :-)
Klemson Krash - December 20, 2011
NICE!
jdmarine - December 20, 2011
I really tried writing today that it is far less likely than Rockies fans' would prefer
But people rarely read stories anymore
Andrew T. Fisher - December 20, 2011
I thought your piece was
Spot on. From both perspectives really, the comments to it weren’t outlandish either. Some of us, including me, may be overvaluing Prado. I really just don’t want to see us make this trade if we are only getting lefty bats in return. Scratch that, lefty bats that seem to have an issue hitting left handed pitching.
jdmarine - December 20, 2011 via mobile
Thanks, and I definitely understand your position
I haven’t understood the link here either, which is too bad, because Prado would solve a lot of the Rockies’ problems.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 21, 2011
Fowler?
Does Fowler make any more sense for either/both teams? If you traded for Fowler do you let him or Boun play LF? Do you flip Bourn?
I ask because there was as not on mlbtraderumors.com that Cuddyer in RF with Cargo moving to CF? Would that mean that Fowler is coming available?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/nl-west-notes-belisario-dodgers-ross-rockies.html
calbers - December 20, 2011
Fowler is going nowhere.
He was branded untouchable earlier this offseason, for better or worse. Dan Mennella made a pretty small (yet large) mistake b failing to accurately transcribe the source tweet. The tweet his statement was based off of that he linked says :
Fowler is absolutely being counted on to play CF. When asked about playing the Coors Field outfield today at his press conference, Cuddyer responded by saying he was glad Fowler was so fast.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 21, 2011
From a Braves perspective getting Fowler is the only trade that makes sense. He isn’t left handed like Smith, Wheeler and Blackmon.
FourScore199 - December 21, 2011
Besides...why do we HAVE to move Prado???
We are moving a decent bat…who can play a good…or decent OF corner, 3B, 1B, and 2B? …and we are doing this because we have TOO much offense???? Or is it that our wonderful upper level depth in the minors provide ample insurance should one of key guys get hurt?
If you want to make a trade for Smith then trade from strength….trade some pitching depth. But the reality is that the Rockies want to get Prado because he would be awesome at 2B..hitting in Coors field…and NOBODY ELSE WOULD BE WILLING TO TAKE SMITH.
calbers - December 20, 2011
This is just totally untrue. The Rockies have received several calls on Smith, but he’s their most valuable remaining trade asset (that they’d be willing to trade) so he is being held for the best return.
Andrew T. Fisher - December 21, 2011
I'm going to agree with this for one reason....Smith was a beast against RH Pitching
for my fantasy team
Prado will most likely get moved, for better or worse….A Prado trade has almost been a definite(in my mind atleast) ever since we signed Uggla. I love having Uggla’s bat in the lineup, but with the payroll issues this team has faced over the past few seasons I think that trade and signing was the end of Prado’s time in Atl.
jdmarine - December 21, 2011
I respectfully disagree with your thoughts.
Prado is the heir apparent to Chipper. There is no other in our organization even remotely close to being able to fill that gap next year. Prado is a team player who is our version of Michael Young. In fact, I think I like that comp very much… Prado and Young are the type of players you have to have on a team. Versatile, great in the club house and willing to do whatever the team asks regardless of who is signed.
Prado will be our 3B next year if he is still on this team and the more I think about it, the madder I will be if we get rid of him. JJ I can stomach… Prado, no way no how. We NEEEEEEED him. Especially since we didn’t trade for Lowrie… GRRRRR
Klemson Krash - December 21, 2011
Krash I hope you are right....
I really don’t want to see him moved. I just think we hamstrung from a payroll perspective.
jdmarine - December 21, 2011
The fly in the ointment...
Is that the heir apparent has just one year of team control remaining after Chipper retires, if he retires. The Braves will eventually need to shit or get off the pot – an extension or a trade – sometime in 2012 or during the 2013 offseason at the very latest. He’s not going to net any compensation when he leaves otherwise.
-C
cthabeerman - December 21, 2011
Again... I refer to the comparison...
Look at what happened between Texas and Young…. I see a similiar situation happening. I hope it doesn’t and we just lock Prado up… but we may wait until the season to see how he responds to having a sub-par injury filled season.
Klemson Krash - December 21, 2011
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