For the rest of the season we'll keep a daily tally of the Atlanta Braves chances of making the post season, along with daily commentary. Also consider this a daily open thread for general chatting.
| NL East | W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | Magic Num | Playoff Odds |
| Phillies | 80 | 60 | .571 | - | W2 | 23 | 73.3% |
| Braves | 79 | 60 | .568 | 0.5 | L3 | 24 | 84.1% |
Today we are going to take a glass half full approach. Maybe, just maybe, the Braves will play better when they are the chaser instead of the chased. Perhaps too there is a more pressing reality setting in for the Braves players. After all, they have been playing decent baseball lately, they just haven't been doing those one or two things that they need to do to win games. A couple of key hits last night for Atlanta, and two or three better placed pitches and the outcome is totally different -- that's been the story for the past few weeks. We have to believe as fans that those little things that the team is missing will eventually come back.
On the other hand, maybe this team really isn't as good as we all thought. Maybe we're just really darn lucky -- twenty-something last at-bat wins lucky. No, no, wait, let's stick with glass half full, glass half full.
*********************
Congrats to Zeus12888 for winning the $50 Sports Authority gift card for being the closest to guess the Braves playoff odds yesterday. Same game for today, and another $50 gift card; in the comments of this post guess tomorrow's Braves playoff odds to the fifth decimal. If you need further explanation, visit the original post here, and don't forget to make sure and sign up for State Farm's Go To Bat.
0 recs | 77 comments
82.78645
gondeee - September 8, 2010
83.01158
NCChopper - September 8, 2010
85.1264
iamthesgt - September 8, 2010
85.00187
vooodooo - September 8, 2010
86.00157. And how do we...
have a higher probability of making the playoffs than a team that is ahead of us? Statisticz is hard.
lebetkowitz - September 8, 2010
Based on projections of how we did earlier in the season.
EyePod - September 8, 2010
We have a much higher run differential
Suggesting we’re better than our record.
Also, we have 23 games left compared to the Phils’ 22, and we have 3 more home games than they do the rest of the way.
TEXVIKE - September 8, 2010
86.57894
joshmaurer - September 8, 2010
85.32145
And I am with lebetkowitz—-how do with have a higher probability than the Phillies?
cavebird - September 8, 2010
Maybe in all of the simulations...
We smack the Phillies around head to head…
Jman781 - September 8, 2010
It depends on the simulation...
Baseball Prospectus is a good example of this. If you just run the simulation, then you end up for the division:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
Phillies: 39.6%
Braves: 60.3%
However, if you use Elo (A weighted system used for chess, and roughly shoe-horned in for baseball):
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddselo.php
Phillies: 55.6%
Braves: 44.3%
But if you use BP’s PECOTA weighted simulations (Which use a lot of sabermetric-based extrapolations in their algorithm):
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php
Phillies: 61.0%
Braves: 38.9%
The simulation in the opening post is probably not weighted with information like weighing how well someone is currently batting for trends/slumps, VORP, EqA, etc. It probably just looks at “THIS IS HOME RECORD, This is team A’s home record, this is team B’s away record, here’s who wins.” Not to say one is any better than the other, but the Elo and PECOTA driven simulations probably have more data they are crunching.
The question is, do you buy that the data used is relevant.
JamesFromPhilly - September 8, 2010
85.11115
Jman781 - September 8, 2010
84.1234
awix - September 8, 2010
84.57483
WaltDeezy - September 8, 2010
85.27150
EyePod - September 8, 2010
Oh, Charity is SkillsUSA
EyePod - September 8, 2010
86.10565
jdmarine - September 8, 2010
85.12165
hailtogeorgia - September 8, 2010
86.55755
bighop - September 8, 2010
78.50408
pretty much guessing we lose
gtbravesfan - September 8, 2010
Is Lowe still hurt or what? I don’t want to see a repeat of his last start.
TradeAndruw - September 8, 2010
85.32451
Bravesnpcola - September 8, 2010 via mobile
0.00000%
Pretty sure getting swept by a, no wait, THE last-place team automatically DQ’s you from the playoffs.
Richard R - September 8, 2010
HILARIOUS
/sarcasm
joshmaurer - September 8, 2010
I would like to bid...
$1, Bob.
Jman781 - September 8, 2010
I hereby declare that TONIGHT is... May 131st.
Can someone please tell the team so they’ll play like it?
NCChopper - September 8, 2010
with a bloody horse head in D-Lees bed at night.
king of games - September 8, 2010
How do we have a higher percentage than the Phillies?
golfballs03 - September 8, 2010
Don't argue with propaganda.
No, it might be because of our remaining schedule compared to their’s.
Here’s something that may not cheer you guys up, but might give you hope:
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=3037
Creek Johnson - September 8, 2010
86.25678
CT's #1 Braves Fan - September 8, 2010
84.96834
atl14yearsschaffer - September 8, 2010
And check this out.
These are the MLB pythagenpat records after adjusted for things like luck, strength of schedule, equivalent runs scored, equivalent runs allowed, etc. If you look at the W3/L3 column, you’ll see that the Phillies are playing much better than they really are. We can catch them.
Creek Johnson - September 8, 2010
FAIL
I guess the link would help.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php
Creek Johnson - September 8, 2010
Of course...
One reason they’ve been playing better more recently than compared to their season as a while may have something to do with their injuries through the summer. Their lineup is a lot different with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Placido Polanco in it than Wilson Valdez, Greg Dobbs and Mike Sweeney.
JamesFromPhilly - September 8, 2010
Wait...
…you mean THE Mike Sweeney?
Creek Johnson - September 8, 2010
84.58058
ThePetis - September 8, 2010
86.2754
HeywardFTW! - September 8, 2010 via mobile
^3 at the end
HeywardFTW! - September 8, 2010 via mobile
83,64757
HEYJUDE - September 8, 2010
92.18475
telemakhos - September 8, 2010
87.25365
Fisher House Foundation
15ks - September 8, 2010
84.84573
ryantex - September 8, 2010
86.59309
Cayla - September 8, 2010
90.71378
bACEballstud - September 8, 2010
Is it officially time to stop giving Rick Ankiel and Nate McLouth....
…..AB’s? I also think Freeman deserves a shot every now and then. I know Lee and Glaus are giving their all, but they’re both really banged up and pitchers have them figured out(just throw them heaters inside).
So what’s the harm in starting a guy who pitchers aren’t familiar with who was on a tear to end his AAA season? Not tonight against the lefty, but I’d like to see him start at least one of the games in the Cardinals series, all righties.
Undocorkscrew - September 8, 2010
I don't mind Ankiel
as long as he’s batting 8th. His defense in CF is so good it makes his offensive deficiencies tolerable at the end of the lineup.
king of games - September 8, 2010
Sheesh… gotta take the lesser of 2 or 3 evils. Put Omar in left, slide Melky(arg) to center, and play Brooksie at 2nd. Send Lee back to Chicago and platoon Freeman and Glaus.
Anything but watching Lee bat again
BraveFanInTennessee - September 8, 2010
I totally forgot about Brooks, why the heck isn’t he playing third with Infante in Center, that would be about a 197% improvement of the the fly swatters playing in center right now.
HeyMikey - September 9, 2010
agreed
I hate watching melky play defense. He more than makes up for his offensive adequacy with horrifying play in the field.
telemakhos - September 8, 2010
Josh Johnson likely done for the year......
……and he had two more starts against the Phillies. [sigh]
Undocorkscrew - September 8, 2010
We just need to win games, not hope the Phillies lose.
king of games - September 8, 2010
other than his start against us (shocker), he actually hasn’t looked so good lately. not a huge deal.
ryantex - September 8, 2010
89.54234
nagyMatt - September 8, 2010
87.50034
ducheneaux13 - September 8, 2010
Big Brothers Big Sisters
ducheneaux13 - September 8, 2010
85.4241
Quilvio Veras - September 8, 2010
85.76125
Rhyno18 - September 8, 2010
Overachievers
I would say that they are chokers, but that would suggest that their lack of toughness is overcoming their talent. Instead, I just think there is a major lack of talent. Lee, Glaus, McLovin’, Ankiel, Melky-these are the starters? The fact that they were in first place for three months, in hindsight, seems rather remarkable. Does anyone seriously think that this lineup can outscore the Phillies 3 times out of 6 where the pitchers are Halladay, Oswalt and Hammels? Even if Hudson was pitching 6 times, I just don’t see it. The emperor has no clothes.
mrsgritoli - September 8, 2010
Melky is a WINNAR
and there’s a reason they don’t play the games on paper- anything can happen between the chalk lines
leedawg - September 8, 2010
Oswalt and Hamels have historically done fairly poorly against the Braves, so I think it’s absolutely possible for the Braves to outscore the Phillies, in any game.
You’re also talking about a team that ranks third in OBP, so they’re going to get on base at some point, more than likely.
For all the Phillies power and their small ballpark, their SLG% is all of .001 higher than the Braves on the season.
There’s a lot of reasons that the Braves are where they are, and there’s plenty of talent to keep playing successful ball into the postseason. Anyone who can’t see that is blind.
-C
cthabeerman - September 8, 2010
85.7362
Zeus12888 - September 8, 2010
83.33333
New World Brave - September 8, 2010 via mobile
This Team
Anyone else a little sad that we may not make it? Can’t get “This Town” out of my head today. Been a fan since the Horner, Washington, Garber, Mahler, Murphy days. But this one is getting to me. I have faith, though, despite my opening line. Like I’ve said on here before . . . It is written.
New World Brave - September 8, 2010 via mobile
Well...
What do these teams all have in common?
1997 Marlins
2002 Angels
2003 Marlins
2004 Red Sox
They all won the WS as a WC team…We still are up in that race…
Jman781 - September 8, 2010
That 60th Loss coming from the freaking Pirates hurts more than anything. Just sad.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - September 8, 2010
86.71156
abraves - September 8, 2010
81.782
kauf67 - September 8, 2010
86.65555
jbeachbum24 - September 8, 2010
88.346721
LEastCoastBears - September 8, 2010
84.99999
saipol - September 8, 2010
87.589
dragonhawk26 - September 8, 2010
Braves control their fate.
Winning the next two games will put them back in first place, no matter what the Phillies do tonight.
If they win the next two and the Phillies win tonight, they’re back in a tie for first place
If they win the next two and the Phillies lose tonight, they instantly have a full 1 game lead again.
They also still lead the NL Wild Card by 1 game. The closest team behind the Giants is the Rockies at 4.5 back. What sucks is that we now have to watch what the Giants, Rockies, and Cardinals do.
AnEternalEnigma - September 8, 2010
Ehh, not quite
Win both and the Phillies win = half game back of Phils
Win both and Phillies lose = Half game up on Phils.
Richard R - September 8, 2010
Nevermind
Thought we were a full game back.
Sorries!
Richard R - September 8, 2010
85.73177
St. Jude’s Hospital for Research.
carpengui - September 8, 2010
86.53384
mcboyt - September 8, 2010
Huge!!
MikeTrain - September 8, 2010
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