For the rest of the season we'll keep a daily tally of the Atlanta Braves chances of making the postseason, along with daily commentary. Also consider this a daily open thread for general chatting.
| NL East | W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | Magic Num | Playoff Odds |
| Phillies | 89 | 61 | .593 | - | W7 | 10 | 99.4% |
| Braves | 86 | 64 | .573 | 3 | W3 | 16 | 89.8% |
Way to finish off the series last night for the Braves. Nothing pleases me more than sweeping the Mets. Good to see the new additions -- Gonzo and Lee -- coming through in a big game.
I still can't believe the darn Phillies came back and beat Washington in the ninth. At least the Wild Card teams behind us lost.
The big news this morning (kudos to fandave for being on top of this) is that Brandon Beachy might have to fill in tonight for Jair Jurrjens, if JJ's "tweaked" knee isn't feeling up to the task. That would be a huge place for Beachy to make his first Major League start -- maximum pressure. Let's hope Jurrjens can go. We need him at optimum effectiveness.
0 recs | 82 comments
I agree about JJ
But he hasn’t been at optimum effectiveness in quite some time (although he did pitch well against the Marlins two starts ago). I hope that he can rebound, but I am not confident in his ability to match Hamels tonight.
Prove me wrong JJ. Go Braves!
Jman781 - September 20, 2010
Braves usually do well against Hamels
DreamWithinADream - September 20, 2010
Rotation
Interesting that Manuel set it up so his big three see the Braves while Cox might well throw two rookies.
Initially I thought we’d see a similar situation, where the Braves tried to get Hanson, Hudson, and Lowe against the Phillies, but I think Cox realizes that the Mets were more beatable and we needed the wins.
kalesi - September 20, 2010
What he might do is rest Minor, and push everyone elses start ahead one game
then we’d have Jurrjens (hopefully), Hanson, Hudson for the series
TurnerTheBurner - September 20, 2010
Manuel didn't really have to "set up anything"
All he had to do was skip kendrick’s start and go to Oswalt on Friday. Skipping a 5th starter is common. All three of the Phillies starters are at normal rest. If the Braves tried to witch things up, no matter what they tried someone would have been on short rest.
Just a luck of the draw for the Phils.
DreamWithinADream - September 20, 2010
The end quote should be after "set up"
DreamWithinADream - September 20, 2010
According to the Filly fans...
the Braves are the ones who have all the luck.
sddbaker - September 20, 2010
We definitely should manipulate the rotation to have Hanson, Hudson, Lowe go the last series at home.
I’m completely confident in Derek’s ability to shut down their offense
ATLBRVS_19 - September 20, 2010
That would be difficult
DreamWithinADream - September 20, 2010
Good to see our playoff odds back near 90%. As long as 2 of the 3 NL West teams don’t go on a huge tear, we should be fine even if we don’t catch the Phillies.
I love Brandon Beachy, but making your first MLB start in Philadelphia against that lineup in the midst of a heated pennant race? That’s a tall order. Then again, it’s a tall order to start an ailing JJ in that same scenario. Let’s hope that our hitters get to Hamels early to take the pressure off whoever ends up starting.
Jacob Peterson - September 20, 2010
Unfortunately, JJ hasn’t seemed too comfortable with early leads, lately. It might almost be better if it’s a scoreless game through six. At least we know we can win in a bullpen duel.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 20, 2010
Why
would we not throw KK since Beachy isn’t even on the 40man roster and would be a rookie making his first start under HUGE pressure. KK can come through.
Southern IN Chopper - September 20, 2010
I guess they have lost all confidense in KK. Versus the Phillies, 1 bad pitch can make it a tough hill to climb.
bighop - September 20, 2010
Flyball Pitchers and CBPark do not mix
I sympathize strongly with the idea that Beachy might be in for a head swim experience in Philly. HOWEVER – do any of us really wanna see a flyball pitcher like KK going in the band box that is Citizens Bank Park??? I say bring on BB.
carpengui - September 20, 2010
Because he hasn't pitched in about two weeks...
has a total of 4 innings the entire month; and in those 4 innings he’s allowed 6 hits, 6 runs, a HR, and 4 walks.
One of the Japanese beat writers asked manager Bobby Cox after Thursday’s game whether Kawakami would be used from here on out only when the Braves were losing. Cox said, “Yes.”
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8393/news;_ylt=AhpP0eZ3DkE0XrUN9oDKanCFCLcF
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
Not arguing
but how long has it been since Beachy pitched? Their season ended several weeks ago.
Southern IN Chopper - September 20, 2010
Braves have had him in Olando staying sharp. Check the fanshot, it tells the story. He sounds ready.
bighop - September 20, 2010
His last appearance was Sep 3...
but at 6 innings, that still gives him more for the month than KK. Plus as hop said, he probably pitched a simulated game or two in Orlando in instructs.
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
They had him ready in case ANY pitcher had an issue arise. He nearly got a start in Pittsburg in Lowe’s place. Sounds like they are on top of this one.
bighop - September 20, 2010
which would have come on his regular turn...
after the 3rd. The question is more what has he done since, either in instructs (live games against other farm hands?), maybe getting live bp against Glaus, Freeman, or some of the guys on the bench who aren’t getting regular work, etc.
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
Threw bullpens at Indiana Wesleyan and in Orlando, threw Sunday AM, said he feels rested and his arm feels great……from the article linked in the fanshot
bighop - September 20, 2010
yes, I read it
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
Man that guy hates Kawakami.
10-4 - September 20, 2010
The Phillies would kill KK anyway. Maybe if Beachy pitches, for once it will be the Braves’ opponent who will be shut down facing a pitcher making his debut.
redwards95 - September 20, 2010
From DOB
If the Braves go 7-5 over their last 12 games…
Rockies must go 12-1 to pass them
Padres must go 11-2 to pass them
7-5 is very doable!
bighop - September 20, 2010
And both have 3 games against the Giants...
plus the Pads have 3 with the Reds and others, while the Rockies have 4 in St Louis among others. Our chances are pretty good if we can win at least 2, if not 3 of the remaining series.
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
Rockies...
12 games under .500 on the road. 7 of their games remaining are roadies: Arizona and that St. Louis series to end their season.
carpengui - September 20, 2010
Saw this quote from John Schuerholz, pretty dead on:
BravesDawg16 - September 20, 2010
Also their GM didn’t waste $23 million/year on Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami and sign Garrett Anderson and Troy Glaus to fill key offensive slots.
redwards95 - September 20, 2010
Yeah...
The Phillies have never “wasted” any money on players. They don’t have any terrible contracts whatsoever. Because Brad Lidge is totally worth $12M per, and Ryan Howard $25M per, and Raul Ibanez, and so on and so on.
Also, the only one of the players you cite who was truly a waste of money (and not merely overpaid) was Anderson. The rest have contributed somewhat.
Jacob Peterson - September 20, 2010
+1
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 20, 2010
Oh yeah
We’d have been a lot better off with C Morton and JoJo Reyes
bighop - September 20, 2010
Bad debate is bad
and you’re way off.
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
Just replying in kind.
bighop - September 20, 2010
Just saying, the 20/20 hindsight argument against signing Lowe and KK is pretty strong. And I was pretty against signing Lowe without the hindsight considering age and cost.
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
Neither has been remotely close to an ace, for pretty big money. But neither has been a total waste either, KK’s value is dead on his cost, Lowe is not terribly far off his. Wren had to do something, what he did has been pretty close to cost nuetral.
bighop - September 20, 2010
Sorry
KK’s value as of July, the last time I checked it, was dead on his cost. I have no clue where it stands right now, probably a little low after 2 months in AAA.
bighop - September 20, 2010
I don't disagree with that...
but Lowe also has a big opportunity cost associated with him. Where else could that money have been put to use (Adam Dunn instead of GA?), and was he really worth that much for that long, and that age, when there were other, cheaper options on the market to fill that void of starter until the young options would be ready to take over. My problem wasn’t with signing a starter; it was signing one that required a 4 year commitment when we had potential young options out the ying yang to fill in years 2, 3, and 4 instead.
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
No way that I can counter against that post. I’m a Lowe fan, always have been, but it drives me crazy that he’s on the books for 2 more years. I concede!
bighop - September 20, 2010
Is Lowe what he was worth TO US?...
I’ll say it once since I’ve said it so often (and also feel it is parallel to mvhs wanting Werth, as mentioned elsewhere). Lowe has had plenty of solid starts. But what could we have gotten out of using Vazquez, Jurrjens, [a one year deal to Garland, Wolf, Pavano, etc among at the time free agents], Kawakami, with the 5th and replacements being a number of young near ready options (Morton, Reyes, Medlen, Hanson had just owned the AFL) or retiring vet (Glavine felt he was near ready, at least in junk baller Moyer style I’d assume and was deemed rehabbed when Hanson arrived, among others older options).
But by going the one year route, you maintain the ability to have this year Vazquez, Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, and Kawakami, with young options such as above and others on the farm like Medlen, plus going with another veteran on a deal the following year if need be. By signing the long term commitment to both Lowe and Kawakami after signing Vazquez, you automatically squeezed out someone should Hudson come back as most all do now from TJ, or more than one young starter appear ready such as both Hanson and Medlen. We did not NEED to sign Derek Lowe (they were announced same day if I recall, but I assume Kawakami came first considering you’d have had to target him from Japan for much longer than negotiations with Lowe).
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
I can only concede once.
bighop - September 20, 2010
Sure because that was the only alternative….
redwards95 - September 20, 2010
A bunch of our guys would look like hall-of-famers in that park. The phrase “Warning Track Power” would either be expelled from our vocabularies or else be reserved for guys like Melky.
carpengui - September 20, 2010
Are you trying to say that MVP couldn’t hit a choppah over the outfield walls in CBP?
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 20, 2010
They've had plenty of ill spent money...
see Lidge, Ibanez, Blanton, etc. Then there’s a massive extension for Howard he almost surely won’t be worth, dealing a ton of prospects for Lee, getting a much weaker return to “restock the farm”, doubling down with another batch of top prospects for Halladay, etc.
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
And yet they still have a top farm system
After dealing for 3 aces in Lee, Halladay, and Oswalt all in the last 1+ years…
Who was the last star-caliber player the Braves acquired? Tex?
DreamWithinADream - September 20, 2010
"top farm system"?
Really?
sddbaker - September 20, 2010
+1
That was quite the ridiculous statement.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 20, 2010
Unfortunately, as of December 1, 2009...
…SI agrees with the Inception fan. In fact, they ranked the Phillies farm system as better than the Braves’, and #4 overall.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/01/farm.systems/index.html
kidnarcolepsy - September 20, 2010
Shouldn't complain
that’s just good business
DreamWithinADream - September 20, 2010
2.5 game lead in the wild card after sweeping the Mutts has me feeling much better about the Braves at least making the playoffs. Win at least 8 of the last 12 and I might actually start believing in the Braves’ chances of making a run in the playoffs too.
redwards95 - September 20, 2010
Great weekend for sports in general.
BeatTehMets - September 20, 2010
I'll second that!
McGriff the Crime Dog - September 20, 2010
If we take 2 of 3 against the Phils and then 4 of 6 from the Nats and Fish, we will be in great shape for the final weekend 3 against the Phils at home to take the NL East outright. That would be 6-3 over the next 9 games, which is very doable, if we play the way we played in NY
DawgB - September 20, 2010
come down to earth guys...
If we drop 2 of 3 to the phuckin phils then we are right back to life support. The Mets are a trash team right now with nothing to play for, the Phils are the opposite…. on a current baseball jihad
fizzbot - September 20, 2010
Only in terms of winning the division. The Braves could drop 2 to the Phillies and still retain their lead in the wild card race.
Zontar - September 20, 2010
Or maybe...
you could quit telling us to quit believing in our team and then you could go away.
sddbaker - September 20, 2010
Current report from AJC is that JJ will likely make his start tonight
AJC says that Beachy is here for emergency purposes and unless JJ comes up lame at the last minute, JJ will start tonight. I think it’s a clear sign that barring mop up duty in any blowouts that KK has probably pitched his last for the season.
Zontar - September 20, 2010
FTFY
DreamWithinADream - September 20, 2010
when is kk contract done?
when is lowe contract done also?
fizzbot - September 20, 2010
KK gets $6.67M in 2011
Lowe gets $15M in ’11 and ’12
bighop - September 20, 2010
how much money do we have coming off the books next year essentially?
could we go get crawford?
fizzbot - September 20, 2010
Sailto— 3.20— i dont know who will replace him
Wagner— 6.75
-CK will replace him- 1.75Glaus
- FF will replace him- 1.00— maybe resign?Hinske
all these guys will become free agent
i dont think that Braves will try to sign him because, he wil be too expensive and he his LH
joshant - September 20, 2010
post fail
Sailto — 3.20— i dont know who will replace him
Wagner— 6.75 — CK will replace him
Glaus — 1.75 — FF will replace him
Hinske — 1.00— maybe resign?
joshant - September 20, 2010
Saito-could be kept, or we have Marek, Moylan, Beachy, EOF, Dunn, etc
Wagner-CK, Venters, or Saito seem like solid choices, Medlen could do it down the stretch if the above 3 fail
Glaus-Freeman
Hinske-maybe Glaus, maybe Kept, maybe Diaz, maybe Xavier Nady, Lance Berkman, Ty Wigginton, Edgar Renteria, Mike Lowell, Brad Hawpe, and several others
Might also need to replace Diaz and Melky-Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez
Mr. Sanchez - September 20, 2010
Not with just the money coming off
Wagner and Saito leaving saves us about $10M, but McLouth will get a raise as will Jurrjens. I’d rather have Werth but neither may be feasible.
DreamWithinADream - September 20, 2010
McCann gets $1M raise, McLouth gets $2M raise, EOF, Jurrjens and Prado get arbitration raises for the 1st time, Moylan gets arbitration for 2nd time, currently makes $1.15M, so I don’t expect a huge raise for him. Diaz and or Cabrera are eligible for arbitration or re-signing if they are not non-tendered. Ross and Infante get very small raises.
Farnsworth, Ankiel, Lee, Wagner, Saito, hopefully KK, Glaus ($3M by now), should be leaving.
I’m guessing we don’t have a huge surplus, but they might give the new manager an outfielder as a “Welcome to Atlanta” present.
bighop - September 20, 2010
We'll also need a backup/platoon for Freeman
So I wouldn’t be shocked to see Glaus back next year. KK has a manageable contract, so he should be easy to pawn off this winter. I don’t see any reason not to resign Saito if he’s affordable enough.
king of games - September 20, 2010
Saito is an awesome reliever, but he is quickly becoming an injury problem.
bighop - September 20, 2010
Ross already signed a 2 yr extension
DawgB - September 20, 2010
Yes he did, with a very small raise included in it.
bighop - September 20, 2010
Dumb question...
Bobby Cox makes around $3 million per season. Assuming we don’t pay our new manager the same amount, can’t we use some of Bobby’s salary toward player salaries? What would be the estimated price tag for our new manager?
Jman781 - September 20, 2010
too bad it isn't like the NFL where
we could just cut lowe and kk and screw em over but save us money
fizzbot - September 20, 2010
Oh
MBL1 - September 20, 2010 via mobile
post fail
Oh great. We might be turning to a guy who’s never pitched in the big leagues to win perhaps the most important game of the season?
Ugh. I like Beachy, I really do but I don’t know if we can trust him to shut down the Phillies. Don’t get me wrong, I like Beachy but I’m not sure if I want him pitching against the Phillies in the middle of a pennant race.
MBL1 - September 20, 2010 via mobile
If JJ is hurt...
Who would you start?
Jman781 - September 20, 2010
It’s not like KK or JJ have been at all good lately. It’s not ideal to have a rookie make his major league debut in this situation, but it’s a game the Braves would have a tough time winning anyway.
redwards95 - September 20, 2010
Maybe
The unknown factor would work to our advantage. Look at the Braves against the Mets’ pitchers, they struggled the most against Gee, not the pitchers they were somewhat familiar with in Niese and Dickey.
Jman781 - September 20, 2010
Good point. I never thought of that.
MBL1 - September 20, 2010 via mobile
the Braves always struggle against pitchers that are an unknown to them. I dont know if they just dont do their homework or if it is an subliminal thought Bobby places in their head. I dont think he means to do it, but I hear him say it all the time on the radio, so I guess it works as a good excuse. Funny how other teams dont usually have the same problem. I just hope the runners left on base problem goes away for a while and the Phillies start coming back down to earth a little. They aren’t likely to continue their win streak til the end of the season but their schedule is somewhat weak like the Braves. So we need to make the most of these head to head matches! GO BRAVES
HeyMikey - September 20, 2010
How good is the Phillies D?
I’m concerned that some of the hitters with WTP will go into CBP and start swinging for the fences. I say go for contact and find gaps and smart base running. Nothing will put the Phailies on tilt more than smart baseball. Outslugging them is both unlikely and something they can brush off to “luck.” Thoroughly kicking their ass will get into their brains* and possibly demoralize them.
*assuming they have any.
Sir Veza - September 20, 2010
-1 for assuming they have any
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 20, 2010
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