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Talking Chop

Acostalypse Now! Lee's Slam Helps Braves Sweep Mets, 6-3

I've been waiting all season for a classic Manny Acosta implosion against the Braves. He did it so often for us that it seemed only natural to expect him to give up a key home run against us. And finally, it happened. With the bases loaded and two outs in the 7th inning, Mets manager Jerry Manuel brought in Acosta to face the hot-hitting Derrek Lee. Acosta quickly fell behind 3-0, and after working the count full, threw a meatball right over the heart of the plate that Lee just crushed for a second-deck homer to left-center field. That turned a tense 2-2 game into a comfortable 6-2 Braves lead, and the rest was easy.

You could probably argue that the Braves should have had a much bigger lead at that point--they hit into two killer double plays, and Rick Ankiel used one of the worst slides in history to stupidly get thrown out at third after what should have been a leadoff double. You should also give some credit to Mets starter R.A. Dickey, though, as he did make some good pitches with runners on base. Considering that he allowed 10 baserunners in his first 6 innings, he did well to keep the Mets close, inducing 16 ground balls (including the 2 double plays).

If it weren't for Alex Gonzalez, Dickey might not have given up any runs in the first 6 innings. Fortunately for the Braves, though, Sea Bass twice came through with a 2-out single with a runner on third. He closed the deficit from 2-0 to 2-1 in the 2nd inning and tied the game at 2 in the 6th inning. Dickey also gave up hits to the first two batters he saw in the 7th before being pulled (both runners would score on Lee's grand slam). He finished with a line of 6 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 0 K, 16/25 GB (64%), and a -0.054 WPA.

The Braves were down 2-0 thanks to a first inning homer by David Wright off of Derek Lowe. Wright's homer was more of a high fly than a long fly, but he got just enough of it to get it over the sharply angled wall in Citi Field's right field corner. After the homer, though, Lowe really settled down. He gave up only two more hits and no more runs before leaving after the 6th inning. Even more impressive, Lowe did not give up a single fly ball in his last 5 innings; of his last 18 batters faced, 13 hit grounders (all became outs), 2 hit line drives (both went for hits), 2 struck out, and 1 walked. I guess he got his sinker working after that first inning, huh?

Eric O'Flaherty gave up a run in the 7th to cut the Braves' lead to 6-3, but it came on a double play, and he quickly finished the inning. Jonny Venters also got a double-play in a scoreless 8th. With Billy Wagner having saved the first two games of the series and the huge Philly series on deck, Bobby opted to used Craig Kimbrel in the 9th inning instead of Wagner. It was a savvy move, as a 6-3 lead against the Mets is about as comfortable a save opportunity as you can get, and it paid off. Kimbrel gave up an infield hit but struck out the other 3 hitters he faced to close out the Mets and finish the Braves' sweep. It was his first major league save, and almost certainly not his last.

The sweep was the Braves' first on the road in a 3-game set since the sweep of the Brewers in May that catapulted the team onto its phenomenal run to first place. Hopefully this series will similarly help propel the Braves back into first place.

Scoreboard Watch: The Phillies just came back from a 6-3, 9th inning deficit to win 7-6. Drew Storen of the Nats didn't even get an out in blowing the save. The Giants and Rockies are both leading early, too. At least the Padres lost.

Star-divide

MVP
Derrek Lee -- 2/5, Grand Slam, 2B, 2 R, 4 RBI, GIDP, 0.351 WPA

Honorable Mention
Derek Lowe -- 6 IP, 2 R, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 14/19 GB (74%), and a 0.093 WPA
Alex Gonzalez -- 2/5, 2 RBI, 0.190 WPA
Omar Infante -- 2/4, BB, R, 0.157 WPA

LVP
Manny Acosta -- 0.1 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, -0.401 WPA

Clutch Play
Lee's grand slam, obviously (0.404 WPA)

0 recs  |  128 comments

Comments

Aaaaand....

Cue the gnashing of teeth about the Phillies’ invincibility / the Nats’ complete ineptitude.

At least the Braves are playing well!

I look at it this way...

The Phillies are playing WAY over their heads. No team plays .800/.900 baseball….not even for just one month (which is what they’ve been doing, so far). They’re due for a bit of regression, and just in time for the 6 games against the Braves.

The best thing about playing them

is that we don’t have to watch other teams blow leads and generally play little-league-esque baseball. If we do those things, we can at least blame our own players.

I don’t think we will, though. I think we can win this series.

That isn't really how regression towards the means works

They aren’t likely to continue to play at .800 or .900 ball for the final two weeks, but they’re also extremely unlikely to play at .300 or .400 ball either. With a 3 game lead, even if Philadelphia “comes back down to Earth”, they’re still probably going to play .600ish. It is extremely unlikely for Atlanta to be able to over-take them at this point, the team has just dug itself too deep a hole.

To further illustrate...

If I flip a coin 10 times, and it comes up heads every time, that doesn’t mean I am able to go “Oh! The next three will DEFINITELY come up tails!” Flip 11, 12, and 13 are still all equally likely to be heads or tails.

That only works for each individual flip

The odds of a coin landing 11, 12, and 13 times in a row on the side side is highly unlikely.

No doubt the Phillies will play well the rest of the way, but if Atlanta can cut the lead down to 2 games during this series, then its on. Yse its a very tough series for the Braves coming up, but remember the final series will be played in Atlanta, and that’s going to be equally tough for the Phils

At what point did I even elaborate enough for you to make an inference as to how you think that I think regression towards the mean works?

I understand it perfectly well.

“too deep a hole” = 3 games back with 6 games left against Philly?

In what universe? If both teams were to go .500 over their other 6 games, it’s still possible for the Braves to end the year 3 games up of Philly. Sure, you guys are in the prime position of already being on top, but this thing is far from decided.

phuck statistics.

Unfortunately, that’s the kind of math that goes completely out the window when you’re talking about two teams in the same division with only a handful of games left (and 6 of them versus each other). There’s a reason why no (sane) person gambles on single MLB games— the variation grows well beyond the point of consistent prediction as you approach fewer and fewer games.

Even if we used your faulty line of thinking.. what if the phillies played .600 baseball for the rest of the season but still lost 4 or 5 games to a braves team that played .700 baseball. Too deep of a hole?

Thanks

for being so helpful. Now go away.

Odd how when we were ahead, the Phil Phans were not here to “help” us out were they?

Gloating on the opponent’s blog – not cool, but then … consider the source.

Haha, check my posts, I poked my head in from time to time then.

And to be completely, 100% honest? Back in the summer, I was quite involved with the World Cup. I know a girl from Amsterdam who promised me certain… Things… If the Netherlands won. It was so close. SO CLOSE. SO FREAKING CLOSE. /weeps bitterly

“Things” read: sense of humor?

Dear Nationals,

Fuck you.

Love,
TC

This.

How the hell do they blow a 3 run lead in the bottom of the 9th without even getting a single out? HOW!?

He was facing

Victorino / Utley / Howard / Werth.

But still, there’s no excuse for that kind of bed-crapping.

I watched it happen live. It was like a train wreck.

It would be nice

if the Nats or Fish could do something to help us out. They’re both trash.

Well, at least...

The Mets are doing Atlanta favors.

Let's take a page from your name, because I'm calling shenanigans,

the Nationals are obviously getting paid off to lose to the Phillies and play us tougher.

They realized

winning would help the Braves. And adjusted their game plan accordingly.

No shit can anyone play the fucken piece of shit phills without rolling over fuck!!!

It could be that the Phillies, like the Braves, are one of the best teams in the National League. It could be that the Nationals are terrible, just as the Mets are. The Nats were up 6-3 going into the ninth. They hardly “rolled over”.

Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming two series, it looks increasingly likely that the Phillies and the Braves both will end up in the playoffs. How much fun would that be? I think it would be pretty damn cool, especially since it’s a fairly good rivalry and since it would involve two of the best teams in the National League, albeit both with flaws.

I hope the baseball is good and that the umps don’t get noticed. Good luck, Braves fans.

All things considered

I think they’ve been the two best teams in the NL this season. I was always skeptical of the Padres, the Giants are too uneven in their roster balance (though they could easily say that about the Braves, too) and the Reds are too uneven, period.

The Reds may give teams some troble. Though with their latest surge its hard to imagine any team taking down the Phillies at this point ( I hope I am wrong.)

Nice to see Lowe pitching well and Lee with the Grand Slam!

Nice to see

a broom!

I hope to see at least two more brooms (the good kind) this season....
Wash, rinse, REPEAT...

I love double check Sundays.

I approve of this prescription!

Good sweep. Got to keep the momentum and drill the phills

DERREK LEE STINKS AND NEEDS TO BE BENCHED LIKE THAT KID IN RF. START GLAUS

derrek lee can’t hit fastballs and he’s a black hole in the lineup

Are you high?

can you not understand sarcasm?

Assuming the Rockies and Giants win today....

….does Atlanta remain 2.5 games up?

I thought it was only 2 games up.

Pads lost

so I think that puts the Giants back on top of the NL West and puts the Padres back in the Wild Card standings, but the difference in the games played between the Giants and Padres is .5 games, so just for them switching places (again), we are 2.5 up instead of 2.

I think. They keep confusing me.

Who cares how that math works right now...

just keep winning, and we’re good. Keep winning series, and we should be fine. Especially considering our opposition has to play each other, so one way or the other, the Pads and Giants will combine for 3 losses, and the Rockies and Giants will add at least 3 more between them. The Rockies also have 4 in St Louis, while the Padres have the Red about to come to town for 3. If the Braves can win 4 of 6 at home, and split 3 of 6 in Phily and Washington, that’s 93, and I don’t think the Maths works where those 3 teams can combine to have produce two teams at 93 or better.

Yeah, I was just answering a question, haha.

Good lord...

….with the 3-team race in the West and the Giants and Padres switching back and forth, I’m getting pretty confused…

But I think you’re right. It’s listing the Braves as 2.5 up now I guess because the Padres haven’t finished their game yet.

Nope, Padres lost.

There’s just a game in there they haven’t played yet, so they’re uneven from everyone else.

Yep, the Braves now have 2 less losses (the easiest thing to track) than the Padres, Giants, and Rockies (with the Giants and Rockies still needing to finish their games today). One of those team will take the NL West and the other two are our competition for the WC.

The funky thing is that with the Padres’ loss and assuming that the Giants win, the Giants take over the lead in NL West (by half a game…Padres played one less game) which puts the Braves’s wild card lead at 2.5.

But really, a 2 game lead in the loss column is the important thing.

So just to be clear....

…..if the Giants win today, the Braves will be 2.5 up in the WC?

Yes over the Padres

and the Rockies if they win as well.

So to clarify for the Braves for each scenario:

Giants win/Rockies win
Most likely scenario. In this case, Rockies will tie the Padres for second in the West, both with 83-66, 0.5 GB of the Giants who would be 84-66. Hence, the Braves would have a 2.5 game WC lead over both the Rockies and Padres.

Giants win/Rockies lose
Braves would be 2.5 games up in this scenario as well, but only over the Padres. Rockies would be 3.5 GB. Giants would lead the West. Padres would be 0.5 GB there, Rockies 1.5 GB.

Giants lose/Rockies win
Rockies would leapfrog the Giants and tie the Padres for the NL West lead. Braves would be 2.5 games up on the Padres/Rockies and 3 games up on the Giants.

Giants lose/Rockies lose
Unlikely, and the only scenario which would give the Braves a 3 game lead, which would be over the Giants. Rockies would be 3.5 GB. Padres would maintain a 0.5 and 1 game lead over both those teams, respectively.

Rockies lost too.
Great series

Winning the series was great, but sweeping it is amazing, especially since we were struggling. Now lets take this momentum into Philly and win the series

Lee’s GS came on a pitch that was 94 mph. Still can’t hit the 88 mph one though….

If this turns out to be the turning point of the month

I think we should all say TGFTM (Thank God for the Mets).

2011 ROY: Craig Kimbrel?

20.25 K/9 might actually be enough for a reliever to win ROY….

I don’t know, but he has been amazing. He has had some control problems in the past but we haven’t seen hardly any since he has been called up again. On gameday, it said he threw a couple of changeups but I just saw a highlight of it and it looks like a curveball

Freddie Freeman

Stats from Bowman's Blog.

    * In the NL, the winner of the division that also houses the team with a Wild Card berth has never won a World Series

    * In the NL, the winner of the division that also houses the team with a WC berth has advanced further than the WC team 3 out of 15 times (20%)

    * In the NL, the winner of the WC has advanced further than their division’s winner in 6 of the 15 years (40%)

    * In the NL, the winner of the division that also houses the team with a WC berth has advanced further than the WC team OR both teams were eliminated in the DS 9 of 15 years (60%)

    * In the NL, the winner of the WC has advanced further than their division’s winner OR both teams were eliminated in the DS in 12 of the 15 years (80%)

    * In the NL, the WC winner has been eliminated in the DS 7 times in 15 years (47%), while winner of the division that also had a WC entry has been eliminated in the DS 9 times (60%)

    * In the NL, the WC winner has made it to the World Series 6 times in 15 years (40%), while the winner of the division that also had a WC entry has made it to the World Series 2 times (13%). Of those times, the WC has won 2 championships while the division winner hasn’t won any.

sadly

those stats kind of represented the Braves’ playoff woes during The Streak. 1997, 2000, 2003 quickly comes to mind as the WC from the NL East made it to the World Series (with the Marlins winning it in 97 and 2003).

interesting

is there any video of the ankiel slide?

haven’t seen it, yet

It was fine

Until he hit the ground.

Belly flop much?

http://is.gd/fiIIm

Oh wow. That was… there are no words. Wow.

This game

Was sort of the Whipping Boy Bowl. The stars were Lowe (who many people, me especially, have been critical of most of the year), Gonzalez (who keeps getting on base and hitting the ball in key situations, in defiance of dogma) and Lee, who used to hit balls like that with that silly C on his chest, all too often against some midlevel yo yo we had run out there.

Broxton is doing his Randy Hickey act, again.

He’s going to be sitting on a balcony at a motel with Eric Gagne pretty soon at this rate.

hehe all the Dodgers closers always seem to get washed up eh?

uh?

he kept it scoreless and the dodgers r about to do us a favor..

Sherrill saved his ass

After he loaded the bases. That’s not really what I’d call “keeping it scoreless”, but that’s just me.

In any case, the Dodgers just helped us out, a lot. Down 6-1 and they gradually fought back to notch a win. Good stuff.

I wouldn't mind bein the Wild Card

So long as we play well going into the playoffs. If all the NL West teams play like shit and we just fall into it because we’re already a few games up that’s kind of scary. I mean, we would have to play the Reds (as it stood now). Our pitching is way better than theirs. Our bullpen is better than theirs.

Bring on the Reds. And if The Pads/Giants/Rockies have a better record than the Reds I’d LOVE to play San Diego!

The poem from AA was esp good tonight.

Poem by Howard Megdal

Could Cox’s last stop in Queens end any other way?
An ejection, some comebacks, the Mets swept away
As Mets fan, I won’t weep now that he’s retired
Who knew managers left without being fired?

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/9/19/1698103/braves-6-mets-3-wright-homers-in

and that's why they are the LOLMets

It was great to get the sweep, no thanks to the Nats!!

I’m psyched about the Phillies series. Roy Halladay hasn’t been Halladay-esque this month with a 4.79 ERA and a .294 BAA, so I’m hoping this series is very productive for the Braves.

I'm pumped as well

Though I will only get to watch the first game.

JURRJENS PUT YOUR SHIT BEHIND YOU

Kawakami

Does anyone think Kawakami is going to be on standby tomorrow in case Jurrjens decided to throw waist-high changeups down the middle again?

I'm going to say

yes. Just because, what else is KK going to do but be on standby?

But to answer the question...

if JJ struggles, we probably call on Martinez.

I have no idea why

but I have a really good feeling about JJ tomorrow.

You need to not watch a game the rest of the year!

The sweep happened when you swore not to watch them this weekend :)

And true to my word

I did not watch one minute of any game. Now of course I was following on-and-off via my phone and watched the condensed games, but yeah, I didn’t watch.

You're the damn problem...

can’t you see? For the love of the team, stay away. You don’t watch, sweep. You do previews and such, we lose. It’s your involvement that creates the losing. I bet you are even the one who convinced the team to not score runs for Kenshin.

nope

Christhian Martinez will be though lol

Nice Rebound series

Manny Acosta LOL, that is the guy I remember what a joke and a mess the Mets are as a franchise. Blowing money, overpaying for worn out free agents such as J. Bay and lastly no depth in the minors and a crazy coach and GM that is a nut job.

Boy I would be a fan of them ummm NOOOOOOTTTTTTT !!!!

Go Braves keep it up and lets try to take back the NL East or atleast keep the wildcard. Huge hit by Lee today and it was about time.

Go Bobby you are the man and I love the new shades w/ mirror reflection !

I couldn't have said it any better myself.
Question: Is Kimbrel eligible to be in the postseason roster?
I think so.

As long as someone from the 25-man is DLed, he could play. Which wouldn’t be hard if Saito’s injury is bad. If not, then I’m sure they’ll find a way to get his ass on the roster (if we make it).

That's a welcome relief.

I thought we might not have Saito and we couldn’t have Kimbrel because he was called up after September 1.

IF Saito is unable to play, he could take his spot.

-C

You're a Nebraska guy, right?

I remember thinking you are, and I’d just like to say thanks for showing the entire nation what Jake Locker really is: An over-hyped high school prospect who isn’t that good at all. I’ve been saying it for three years now, and I guess everyone else will agree now.

The defense is beastly.

We got ran on a bit much, but I think it’s because we made sure Washington wasn’t going to beat us with its passing game.

Locker definitely proved that no player can’t be gameplanned for, and that’s at least something. I’m sure he’s going to be a fine pro someday, but college football is still a team game.

Really gutsy game by Arizona against Iowa as well. Last year’s bowl game aside, I think that team has a legit shot at the conference title this season…

-C

The problem is we have to go to Stanford AND Oregon this year. It’ll be hard, but I’d be happy with a win in just one of those games. As long as we take care of business at home and someone like U$C or ASU can help us out, we’ll have a good chance to win the title. But that’s a big IF.

He was up earlier in the season

Wouldn’t that qualify him without a DL being neccesary?

OT: Who in here likes College Basketball?
basketball is the devil.
The NBA is...

College hoops is life, though.

meh

Not until March

It's the best!

I’m a Braves, Buccaneers, and Duke fan. I follow all of them vehemently but, and I know this is ban-worthy, but I would take a(nother) national championship over a world series or super bowl any day of the week.

I think college sports is what you have the most invested in. I love the Braves and the Bucs, but I think the love you have for a team that represents the place where you call home for 4 years (or, in my case, 8 going on 13), where all your friends are as passionate as you are, where you camp out for months just to get a ticket to one game…it’s unparalleled. It’s impossible for any other team to come close.

Is it moist in here or is it my eyes?

Without a doubt.
ME!
Go VOLS!
Ouch

That’s rough about Pearl. It’s alright…things get better. Arizona is being killed by penalties right now, and it’s certainly not easy.

I didn’t know Pearl sold out another coach like 20 years ago though. I saw that on Outside the Lines, and that’s pretty bad.

meh...

I’m not that discouraged. Also, haven’t seen that particular version of the Pearl story, but I’ll just say every situation has a lot of different aspects that you don’t always hear about.

That's true

it did sound like your Vols did catch a break with the timing of the suspensions. It shouldn’t be too bad.

The Pearl thing is old news...

he was at Illinois, lost a recruit to Iowa, and got the kid to say he took a car on tape (kid says it was just to get him to stop recruiting him).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Pearl#Pearl.2FThomas_incident

And for a Georgia fan, this is a great thing. Mark Fox has come in pretty hot, and with Pearl’s recent success recruiting in the state to his south, if this incident weakens his pull here, especially with the Atlanta Celtics, I won’t complain.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk KU!

Hey, we just stole your recruit! HA!

In all seriousness though, I do like Kansas’ program. One of my favorite bball programs besides UofA’s. They’re still Mizzou’s little bitch boys in football though.

HELL YEAH

Glad to see a fellow Kansas fan around here!

good win today bravos!
let’s take that momentum into philadelphia and knock the phils down a couple rungs…

OT News

Buddy of mine saw John Smoltz at the Melting Pot up in Roswell. Apparently it was one of Smoltzie’s daughters birthday. He held the door open for her and kept to himself. Wish I could’ve been there.

What are the matchups

for the Philly series?

JJ v. Hamels
Minor v. Halladay
Hanson v. Oswalt

or better yet
 
Venters v. ??
Venters v. ??
Venters v. ??

Postseason roster question...

If someone gets injured DURING the postseason (maybe during the NLCS or even during the WS) are we allowed to bring up another player to take their spot or is the roster set and we have to play down a man?

Pretty sure you can’t until the next round of the playoffs.

This. I think rosters are set by playoff series. So, if someone’s hurt, they’re out at least until the next series.

-C

GO COLTS
I missed Colts football

Tonight, we were reacquainted with the most beautiful offense in sports.

Am I the only one that wants it to hurry up and be 7 pm already?

I hate this whole waiting thing…

Waiting Game!

I have a hard time waiting too. I watch all the best plays from the Braves game the day before to hold me over until gametime. It’s even more sweet because I can fast forward throught all the Mets crap, unless it makes the Braves look even better.

I'm so nervous bout these upcoming games. First time we've faced Philly in forever and its in their bandbox.

Key to the games: Keep the ball down down down down down

Ah, JJ’s specialty.

Other key to the game

patience at the plate… make the Phillies starters work for their outs, and throw a ton of pitches by the end of the 6th.

keep the game close, get to the bullpens, and look out…

Acostalypse - lovely word...made my Day!

poor Manny, he gave up a bomb
not that there’s anything wrong
with helping per se
the Braves getaway
he’s just moving the plot along

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