For the rest of the season we'll keep a daily tally of the Atlanta Braves chances of making the postseason, along with daily commentary. Also consider this a daily open thread for general chatting.
| NL East | W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | Magic Num | Playoff Odds |
| Phillies | 82 | 61 | .573 | - | L1 | 20 | 74.7% |
| Braves | 82 | 61 | .573 | - | W2 | 20 | 87.3% |
Here we are back in first place, though it's a bit more crowded than last we saw it. The see-saw tilts back our way ... for now.
I thought of last night's win as a bit of good luck, but I guess this is just the Braves getting back to what has gotten them to this point in the season. Nothing has been easy this year, but if you stick around to the end of games it certainly has been exciting.
The Braves will be in the position of knowing the Phiillies score before they begin play tonight, so we'll see how they perform under that kind of pressure. Momentum from last night will certainly be on their side.
A good read on this Sunday morning is Mark Simon's ESPN article on Jason Heyward's chase for a .400 on-base percentage.
0 recs | 181 comments
hmm
same record as PHI, yet we’re 1 GB. Something is awry.
RehabReject - September 12, 2010
co-rected.
gondeee - September 12, 2010
I don't get the %s....
same record, and PHI has more home games left (at least did at some point recently). How are they not with the better %? And as far as scheduling goes, the Padres and Cardinals really have it rough the rest of the way.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
I think it uses run differential
Braves24 - September 12, 2010
Then it’s flawed, imo
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
why?
Run differential seems like a good way to determine your record, but that is still very hard to do because of the many factors of baseball or sports period
Braves24 - September 12, 2010
Because run differential might work well over multiple year stretches...
but for a single season, there are often huge anomalies. So no, I don’t think run differential is a good way to determine record, considering you can actually look at the record.
With around 20 games left, I think W-L is easily the best way to go about it. Earlier injuries can distort the #s, home/away and opponents can also make a huge difference (see how the rest of the way sets up for the Padres, and Cardinals although they are already fallen far off).
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
Huge anomalies relative to what? A team’s actual record? That’s kind of the point—the record is the anomaly and the run differential is more indicative of the team’s true talent level. All the things you mention can contribute to the inaccuracy of the predictions but they don’t affect run differential any more than they affect a teams record.
In this case, Philadelphia is underrated by run differential and less underrated by record, but that’s not the inevitable result of using run differential. In other words, Philadelphia just happened to outperform their Pythagorean record in a year where they have major contributors down the stretch who missed large portions of their season (Howard, Utley, Oswalt, Rollins).
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
Actually
I think the % setters recognize that the Braves…..Refuse to Lose!
bighop - September 12, 2010
Last I checked,...
playoff position is determined by actual record, not Pythagorean record and not run differential. So whichever you claim is “more indicative of the team’s true talent level” doesn’t matter, only their W-L record.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
Last I checked
the simulations are trying to determine the teams’ records for the remainder of the year. Run differential is a better predictor of future W/L record than current W/L record.
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
That is: run differential is better at predicting future W/L record than current W/L record is at predicting future W/L record.
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
Alone, maybe, but ...
looking at the team’s recent record, home/away splits, opponents record, etc is even better than that.
Again, it’s a baseball game, not a math contest, and teams make the playoffs based on their W-L record, not run differential and not pythogorean record (funny, I didn’t realize Pythagoras was a baseball fan).
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
Nobody said anything about making the playoffs based on run differential or Pythagorean record. I assume most simulations do take into account opponents record and home. Not sure about recent record, it’s possible that whatever benefit you’d get would be nullified by using a smaller sample, although I know that some odds projectors (Hollinger’s NBA playoff odds comes to mind) do weight recent performance more heavily.
Obviously these simulations can lack critical information which makes them more or less useless in certain situations—that appears to be the case here, as I stated earlier. It’s just not a result of favoring run differential of W/L record.
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
If you are calculating the ability to make the playoffs...
based on RD or PR, then yes, they are judging who makes the playoffs according to who is better in that and not what actually matters, W-L record on the field.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
You’re determining who is going to have the better record going forward using the better predictor of who is going to have a better record going forward. I don’t really see how that’s controversial. That’s about all I have to say on the matter.
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
Because you predetermine "better",
imo, the difference is negligible, and over a short span, there are better ways to judge. Case in point, the differing %s for Atlanta and Phily. But cause you say so…
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
I remember a guy in class once trying to argue that there was no way anybody could tell him that he couldn’t predict the outcome of a coin flip. He might only get it right 50% of the time over a large enough sample, but on any given coin flip you can’t say that he didn’t KNOW it was going to land on heads or tails.
You remind me of that guy.
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
Furthermore, how can you use W/L record to predict future W/L record when both teams have the identical W/L record?
I’m confused.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
You misunderstand what I'm saying...
look above, I list numerous factors that should be taken into account.
And Ron, sounds like you are describing yourself. Of course you can predict the coin flip, you’ve got this magical equation that gives you the answer.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
As I understand your argument, it’s that W/L record is a superior predictor of future wins and losses than the Pythag or Run Diff. If I’m misunderstanding that, let me know.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
you are, see below.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
But to reiterate...
I said actual record is what determines the playoffs. Not pythogorean record, or run differential, and that should be used, not whatever other formula someone feels is the best indicator of a team’s true talent level.
And to determine the probability of a team making the playoff, see the factors mentioned in response to ErigGregg, among others that influence such things.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
I commend you for a valiant attempt at arguing on the side of logic and reason. Keep fighting the good fight.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 12, 2010
Explain to me how run differential is superior to predicting...
who will make the playoffs vs. factoring in current W/L record, future opponents, # of home vs away games, the current health of both your team and your opponents, and the recent caliber of play for both you and your opponents, among other factors. But by all means, let’s assume run differential can tell me what a team’s current record is better than what their actual current record is.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
I just don’t see any way to quantify that scenario you’ve outlined, though. It makes the prediction completely subjective.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
Then I guess there is no...
perfect, empirical mathematical equation that tells you the answer.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
There’s no perfect, empirical mathematical equation to accurately predict anything in the future. No one was asserting that. What the counter to your argument was, was that RD and Pythag were better tools for future predictions than what you had advocated. Not that they were perfect, or guaranteed.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
Over a long term span, yes...
but in the smaller sample size of a final month playoff push, I think that severely reduces their predictive value.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
I wish there was an edit button.
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
gondeee, how was labor day weekend in FL?
Sorry the weather kinda sucked
RehabReject - September 12, 2010
I'm hopping that our CF production stays up for the rest of the year
We need people hitting in the bottom of the order.
taney71 - September 12, 2010
Why do the braves have higher odds than the phillies?
Braves Biceps - September 12, 2010
Number of home games? Strength of schedule maybe?
filmgeek83 - September 12, 2010
This was my favorite quote (paraphrased):
The Braves have better odds because they have six remaining games with the Phillies.
The Phillies have worse odds because they have six remaining games with the Braves.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 12, 2010
That was me
Yay!!
-C
cthabeerman - September 12, 2010
The simulation thinks the Braves are a better team based on run differential, third-order winning %, or whatever this particular one uses.
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
Our odds
I believe part of that is that we hold the tie-breaker over the Phils at the moment (I believe we are ahead of them in the season series)
Tim Abbott - September 12, 2010
Jason Heyward is in scoring position even when he's in the dugout.
filmgeek83 - September 12, 2010
Jason Heyward gets RBIs even when he strikes out with no one on base.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 12, 2010
Heyward doesn’t strike out. He simply chooses not to run the bases.
!Vive la Francoeur! - September 12, 2010
Jason Heyward gets RBIs even when he's not in the lineup or even the stadium.
For example, he had 3 ribbies in a game between Texas and Oakland earlier this season.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
Only 3!?
I think an umpire must’ve been glared at. Heyward decided to let him live, though.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 12, 2010
I blame the Rangers for only getting two people on base before his non PA.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
Alex Gonzalez
Looked like a little school girl, skipping around the bases, after he hit that homerun last night. Was great to see the bullpen (after venters) do their job for 4 and 2/3 innings.
KamikaziMelon - September 12, 2010
Do you think
the Cards are going to throw at him for that?
Sir Veza - September 12, 2010
what?
they better not. it’s not like he pulled a nyjer morgan or anything
atl192485 - September 12, 2010
i hope they do
baserunners
15ks - September 12, 2010
Did you not...
Read the post about Jason Heyward?
We don’t need baserunners.
The umpires just look and see that Jayhey is in the lineup, automatically credit the braves with a win :)
KamikaziMelon - September 12, 2010
Yes
Lennox - September 12, 2010
Probably.
The Cards are punks.
Sarahbeth - September 12, 2010
Kyle Lohse is.
ATLforlife - September 12, 2010
i honestly think the cards are one of the classier organizations in baseball (with the exception of a couple players)…not to say they won’t defend their players…but i don’t think they are punks…
at the same time, gonzalez had the bat flip and then the skipping around…they might have taken offense to that and might throw at him once…i would say that it’s done after that tho…they wouldn’t drag that one out…
forgotten_glory - September 12, 2010
Really just unbelievable
J-Hey has only swung and missed once at 134 fastballs in September.
AND: in his last 100 plate appearances, he has reached base 52 times.
Are. You. Kidding. Me.
fandave - September 12, 2010
Nope.
He’s that awesome.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 12, 2010
I don't believe it...
although if true, he’s freaking 21 and a rookie (and in all likelihood will improve, how he can improve over this I’m not sure, but the common theme is talented rookies with good work ethic improve as their careers progress). Imagine what we kind of season he’s putting up in 2015, 2018, 2020? If he’s wanting to play 20+ years (and with luck, healthy enough), big numbers are certainly possible.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
I want his babies.
Scott Coleman - September 12, 2010 via mobile
My wife refers to Jason Heyward as “Butt Baby Maker”, since I (and most people on this forum) have such a man-crush on him. I was reading the Heyward OBP article earlier, and she said, “OBP must stand for On-Butt Percentage – the percentage of fans he’s had his way with. But, that .394 is way too low.”
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 12, 2010
Your wife deserves a medal for that one, I laughed for a long time.
swainzy - September 12, 2010
I also
Laughed out loud quite a bit.
Your wife has a crush on him too… don’t worry ;)
KamikaziMelon - September 12, 2010
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
Mark Simon stole my idea!
Ron A. - September 12, 2010
Phillies up 2-0 in the 3rd
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Dennis Dixon just got picked off
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
Saw that :-(
I’m watching Carolina game, have Steeler game on laptop and watching Phillies/Mets update on my phone.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
you a Steeler fan?
Kobe:The Legend - September 12, 2010
Yep, have been since the days of Bradshaw.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
I was very young LOL
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
GATA Dirty Birds
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
+1
get swoll yunel - September 12, 2010
What is GATA?
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
get after their [butts]
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
Yay! Missed FC by Falcons :-)
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Norwood has to make that catch. Regardless, that kick should’ve been converted
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
you mean? FG?
Kobe:The Legend - September 12, 2010
Yeah, nails are too dang long – hit keys I don’t mean to at times.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Watching both CAR/NYG and PIT/ATL simultaneously on my laptop. Have gameday somewhere
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
Houston 13 Colts 0
Kobe:The Legend - September 12, 2010
Did Steelers get that first down? (Booth review)
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Doesn’t look like it to me, but we’ll have to see
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
looked like it...
my man Dunta is not having a good day.
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
Yeah, but running out of time.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
55yd FG attempt hit the upright.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
wow
Matt Forte just had a 89 yard TD reception!
Kobe:The Legend - September 12, 2010
Oswalt not giving the Mets anything.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Screw that guy…
EricGreggWasPaidOff - September 12, 2010
STILL 2-0 going into the 7th.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
now 3-0
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
Just noticed that ….Ruiz on 1st and 0 outs :-(
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
2nd and 3rd and 0 outs – Muts need to go to their BP
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Man, I hope Oswalt doesn’t pitch into the 8th…
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Carolina Touchdown vs Giants 16-14
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Giants FG to go ahead of Carolina 17-16
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
I wonder if I should check on my fantasy team (Team Failure) and see how they’re doing so far today.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
I’ma guess their failing
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
That's a given.
I’ve doomed Aaron Rodgers to either a career ending injury or a season with fewer than 2000 pass yards and only 5 TD with 29 INT.
Never fails when I partake of fantasy sports. The people I draft end up having an atrociously bad year. When they are released or traded, they resume normal statistics accruing.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
tell me you don't have anyone on the Vikings please?
Kobe:The Legend - September 12, 2010
I have Ryan Longwell, and that’s it. I drafted Sidney Rice, but didn’t know he was hurt. I dumped him.
UMDBHIK - September 12, 2010
Falcons FG for 6-3 lead over Steelers
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Steeler FG to tie Falcons 6-6
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Tough defensive game on both sides.
Ugh, Steeler starting on the 6 yrd line..after the punt and friendly Falcon bounce.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
ugh, Mendenhall can't run and he's in my fantasy team
Kobe:The Legend - September 12, 2010
Neither team running much today.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
http://twitter.com/ajcbraves
Freeman’s Birthday today!!
CalBravesFan - September 12, 2010
Manny Acosta with a solid 8th. Going bottom 8 3-0 PHI
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
Looks like Oswalt going a complete game? Damn.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
My Mets disdain is only overshadowed by my Phillies disgust.
They (Mets) could at least make it a ballgame.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
ugh falcons need to get their ish together i took them so high in my pool
15ks - September 12, 2010
i hate
tomato ketchup ward
15ks - September 12, 2010
I don’t like Heinz anything… prefer Hunts brand ;-)
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
need a td drive from matt ryan right now
losing to pitt with no qbs would be really pathetic
15ks - September 12, 2010
Dixon was drafted by the Braves. Not a nobody
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
And he didn't play at Oregon,...
(they didn’t have a baseball program).
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
i kno that
but as an nfl qb he is garbage
15ks - September 12, 2010
Hines Ward with a heck of a catch.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Again!
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Jammi Mother Flippin German...
I don’t even know you, but I don’t like you, and really don’t care for the guy who made that draft day call. Stupid, stupid Smiths.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_NFL_Draft#Round_three
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
Ut oh – my season of good will flushed due to be being a Steeler fan? :-)
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
your graphics trump all
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
:-) I might root for the Falcons if they were playing anyone but the Steelers or Carolina
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
I've cheered for them a lot too...
Kasay was from my high school and has been a Panther since day 1 (Willie Green same HS too). So I’ve always cheered for them (apart from Falcons games). And the Steelers have had plenty of players I like too, so I’ve just always liked them and their style (smash mouth 3-4).
Mr. Sanchez - September 12, 2010
Well, I MUST remain a Steeler fan – because in a moment of total weakness, I married a dang Cowboy fan. Yeah, I know (hangs head).
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Muts didn't show up to play - shut down 3-0 by Oswalt
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Steelers FG to 9-6 over Falcons
Should have gotten a TD :-(
Not comfortable with this slimmest of leads in a tough defensive game
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
I keep losing my Steeler feed... trying my 3rd attempt now.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Challenge on the field - will be ruled an incomplete pass I'm sure....
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
how far would it have been?
15ks - September 12, 2010
It was, our recovery all the way to the end zone returned. Good call unfortunately :-(
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
If the Steelers don’t tighten up here, Falcons will go ahead.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
NY embarrassing Carolina 31-16
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
So far, none of my teams are doing well today.
The Braves had better play good tonight, I need at least one of the teams I’m rooting for to win.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Another FG - Falcons 9-9 tied with Steelers
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
should'vr gone for the 4th and 1 and the td there
leaving pitt just enough time to beat them with a fg and have no time to comeback
15ks - September 12, 2010
We’ve had crap for field position all day. At least this one is at the 20.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
2 min left in Pittsburgh....
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
sack!
15ks - September 12, 2010
Yeah, loss of 5… UGH
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
That could be the ballgame. :-(
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
And another. Not looking good.
STUPID play call after the time out.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
ok i was wrong, field goal was the right call now they can go for teh winzzz! haha
15ks - September 12, 2010
Interceptions are NICE :-)
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
did that just happen?
15ks - September 12, 2010
Troy says yes.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
wow
15ks - September 12, 2010
That was horrible...
BravesDawg16 - September 12, 2010
well the falcons owe me $150, no shot at winning this week’s pool now
15ks - September 12, 2010
It’s STILL a tie game.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
unless pitt loses like 6+ yards...
theyll kick a fg as time expires
15ks - September 12, 2010
UGH, I lost my feed again…..
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
MISSED IT!!!!!!!!!!!
BravesDawg16 - September 12, 2010
Whew, got another just now.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
you should just use atdhe
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
I have, back and forth – it keeps being shut down.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
interesting. It’s been pretty clean for me
GoBravesNY - September 12, 2010
I have it open now. I’ve had to go to JustinTV a couple of times. it gets shut down, then I go back to ATDHE… etc
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
Damn, damn damn missed the FG
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
power of negative thinking baby
now it will be determined by blind luck one way or the other haha
15ks - September 12, 2010
C'mon Matty
You got the ball. Make up for that pick
BravesDawg16 - September 12, 2010
Of course they did,.
It seems whoever I root for – drama is guaranteed.
I’m in the mood for (and need) a blowout game of some sort – and soon.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
atl getting it first in ot?
15ks - September 12, 2010
Yup
BravesDawg16 - September 12, 2010
on their own 9, fantastic
15ks - September 12, 2010
Man, Matt Schaub only got me 6 points today
Thats weak…
BravesDawg16 - September 12, 2010
me too:(
Sean N - September 12, 2010
Well thats game
Horrible penalties killed th Birds. Gave the Steelers awesome field position :(
BravesDawg16 - September 12, 2010
Whew, Steelers held Falcons, will get the ball.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
and that was fast
15ks - September 12, 2010
Whew, tough game Falcon fans!!!
We were lucky to come out of that with the Win.
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
MENDENHALL!!
Kobe:The Legend - September 12, 2010
Make you feel better?
NCChopper - September 12, 2010
yes yes
Kobe:The Legend - September 12, 2010
The Falcons are overrated
losing to a 3rd string QB anytime is not good. Especially if you’ve had all off-season to prepare
Jaymin Patel - September 12, 2010
There's no excuse to lose this game tonight....
Lohse has been SO bad this year. He’s been worse since the break. He’s worse away from St. Louis. Doesn’t strike anyone out. Walks everyone.
Braves are coming off two straight wins. Have their ace on the mound. Are the best home team in baseball…..
Seriously, they can not let the Cardinals win this game tonight.
Dbacks take out Kennedy after 6 despite throwing a 2-hit shutout on 82 pitches. Now that atrocious pen(Boyer’s currently pitching, btw) is trying to give the game to the Rockies…
Undocorkscrew - September 12, 2010
and the Rockies tie the game
ByrneSupremacy - September 12, 2010
Braves have to win tonight...
….to avoid losing ground on literally every team that has a reasonable shot at passing them.
Undocorkscrew - September 12, 2010
...and as I was typing that, Rockies tie it up with a 2-run double off Boyer....
…..f_cking pathetic.
Undocorkscrew - September 12, 2010
For those of you in the TC Fantasy Football League...
good luck this season. My team is freaking beast.
Scott Coleman - September 12, 2010 via mobile
Nate McLouth hitting .462?!?!?
Atlanta’s Nate McLouth has had a nightmare season, but he’s determined to end it on a good note. He’s currently on a 5-game hitting streak. Since the streak began on September 5, McLouth’s hitting .462 (6-for-13) with 1 homer and 6 RBIs in 5 games. Bobby Cox rewarded McLouth’s good work by batting him 6th for the first time all season on September 10 against Chris Carpenter. McLouth responded by homering in his first at-bat. McLouth drove in the first two runs of yesterday’s contest: a 2-out, bases loaded walk and a 2-out, RBI triple that picked up Derrek Lee, who had just grounded into a double play with runners at the corners and 0 outs.
McLouth was robbed of a grand slam by Cameron Maybin on September 5. Had McLouth’s slam not been caught, his stats would be .538 (7-for-13) with 2 homers and 8 RBIs in his last 5 games. Also, the Braves would have likely won that game had Maybin not snagged it. It would have given the Braves a 8-6 lead. They ended up losing 7-6 in 10 innings.
AnEternalEnigma - September 12, 2010
that is amazing
I likethis version of Nate lots better
hawves - September 12, 2010
Oswalt with 4-hitter
Phillies win 3-0. Braves have their work cut out for them. Good luck Huddy.
hawves - September 12, 2010
Why do the Braves have an 87% chance of making the playoffs and the Phillies only have a 75% chance ?
BravesFan2010 - September 12, 2010
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