This should be a good one, folks.
Two of the NL's best teams will face off this weekend in Hotlanta for a 4-game series. The Giants have been on fire for the last month, and have won 7 of their last 10. They're currently leading the Wild Card and are 1.5 games behind the San Diego Padres in the NL West.
Braves Home Record: 36-14
Giants Road Record: 29-26
The Giants do a little bit of everything, and they do most of everything well. Here's a look at their offensive numbers:
Runs: 479 (8th)
BA: .264 (4th)
OBP: .329 (6th)
SLG: .410 (7th)
HR: 99 (9th)
BB/K: 0.48 (4th)
SB: 41 (15th)
The Giants are a better club offensively than they're given credit for, and they're carried by Cake Lover Pablo Sandoval, super-rookie Buster Posey, and Aubrey Huff...yeah, that Aubrey Huff. Besides those big three, Juan Uribe is having a nice season and has surprisingly hit 15 HRs for San Fran. Outfielder Andres Torres is having a fine season for the Giants, but neither Aaron Rowand or Nate Schierholtz provide much offensively. Pat Burrell has been pretty good for them in limited playing time, and 2nd baseman Freddy Sanchez has been slumping horribly as of late. All-in-all, a pretty solid group offensively. If the Braves are able to contain two of the big three, I feel pretty good about our chances of a series win. That's a big "if", though.
Much more after the jump...
Now, a look at their excellent starting pitching:
ERA: 3.38 (2nd)
FIP: 3.87 (5th)
xFIP: 4.29 (10th)
BAA: .236 (2nd)
K/9: 8.17 (1st)
BB/9: 3.95 (16th)
WHIP: 1.31 (5th)
As you can see, they're very talented, but their overall numbers start to decrease a bit once you get into the advanced stats. Tim Lincecum is amazing. Matt Cain is almost as good. Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner are both very talented young lefties, and Barry Zito is having a fine season. They're going to strike you out a bunch, and they won't give up many hits either. They do walk a bunch of hitters though. I mean, a LOT of hitters. For my money though, they have the best starting pitching in the NL.
Finally, a look at the bullpen:
ERA: 3.32 (3rd)
FIP: 3.66 (3rd)
xFIP: 4.21 (6th)
BAA: .247 (4th)
K/9: 9.21 (3rd)
BB/9: 4.74 (16th)
WHIP: 1.45 (12th)
Pretty solid numbers throughout. Probably the 3rd best 'pen in the NL behind San Diego's and Atlanta's. Similar to the starting rotation, they strike out a ton of guys and don't allow many hits, but do walk a bunch of guys. Closer Brian Wilson is one of the best in the business, and he's dominate in the 9th inning. Middle relievers Sergio Romo, Guillermo Mota, Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista have all been very solid for the Giants as well. Just like the Braves, they don't really have any real weaknesses to point out.
Pitching Match-Ups:
Thursday, 7:10pm
Friday, 7:35-ish (Tom Glavine will have his jersey retired on Friday. If you're in the area, you HAVE to go to the Ted.)
Saturday, 7:10pm
Sunday, 1:35EST
Pretty sweet pitching match-ups, if you ask me.
This is a big series, folks. The Giants are a fine team, and they as good as a chance as we do of playing October baseball. Hopefully, our Braves will be up to the task. I'm thinking a series split will be in order, but I think either team could end up winning the series. A sweep would be huge for either team, and would probably establish that team as the team to beat in the National League.
0 recs | 93 comments
This is gonna be a TOUGH series
JJ-Lincecum Is actually our best match-up i believe. JJ outdueled Lincecum last year so I feel pretty good about this game
Zito-Big Red You never know when Tommy is going on the mound. He may give you 7IP and 1 run OR he’ll give ya 4IP 6 runs. I think we can hit Zito so this may be an intresting game
Cain-Huddy A battle of aces(I know Cain isn’t the Giants ace, but on most MLB teams he would be the ace) This is shoud be a fantastic pitching duel
Sanchez-Lowe This should be our hardest game to win. Sanchez will be really tough on our Lefties and again with Derek Lowe you never really know what he will do, it all depends on if he can keep that sinker low in the strike zone. I think we should put as many RHB as possible in this game, and rest JHEY this game because earlier in the season I believe Sanchez tore him apart
KINGSLYTUT - August 5, 2010
I like the Cain-Hudson match-up.
Jason Heyward > Buster Posey. Heck, Jason Heyward > Everyone.
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
which jason heyward
have you been watching lately
Jaymin Patel - August 5, 2010
Jason Heyward is awesome, you can’t deny that. :)
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
Actually...
Someone tried to deny it. Once. His head promptly imploded, for it could not handle the factual impossibility of Heyward not being awesome. True story.
Jman781 - August 5, 2010
The one who
is better than Buster Posey.
sddbaker - August 5, 2010
What, Heyward isn't that good because he had a bad week?
He was awesome the week before. On balance, he’s been awesome over the past two weeks.
Bronn - August 5, 2010
This will be awesome
our 3 best pitchers vs their 3 best. I’m hoping we take 2 out of first 3 and the 4th will be a toss up.
Lincecum has been filthy lately but hopefully we get to him early.
Cain is the one we have the best shot at with Huddy pitching that night and Hanson has to be better than he has been recently.
Chipper’s been breaking out lately and so has Mac. Heyward really needs to break out of his slump.
Hopefully Hinske plays more than Glaus will all the righties that san fran has.
Jaymin Patel - August 5, 2010
heyward had a bad series. i think he'll be fine
ATLBRVS_19 - August 5, 2010
how bout he had two good series
since he’s been back
Jaymin Patel - August 5, 2010
haterz gotta hate
Rhyno18 - August 5, 2010
since the ASB
75 AB, 23 H, 8 2B, 5 RBI, 12 R, 12 BB, 15 K, 3 SB, 1 CS, .307 AVG, .416 OBP, .413 SLG
ByrneSupremacy - August 5, 2010
ya but they're mainly from the two
series
Jaymin Patel - August 5, 2010
Negative Nancy!
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
Don't call me nancy. you little girl
Jaymin Patel - August 5, 2010
ONO U DIDNT
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
lol
i see what you mean, man losing 6 of 9 got me upset, i hope we end up with best NL record cause we’ll need home field advantage
Jaymin Patel - August 5, 2010
Oh shiiiiiiiii. Jamie gon getcha.
Richard R - August 5, 2010
Nancy!
nancy nancy nancy nancy nancy
sddbaker - August 5, 2010
So that's how stats work. Interesting.
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
Heywards singles aren't helping in the 2 hole. I hope he finds his power stroke again
secondfh - August 5, 2010
Yeah, what a selfish bastard
Getting a bunch of singles to pad his stats while refusing to help the team.
Bronn - August 5, 2010
I think you missed the point
Those singles would come in handy in say , the 5 spot?
secondfh - August 5, 2010
Depends completely on the situation
Yes, we’ve had a lot of people on recently when the fifth spot in the line-up has come up, but that’s entirely because people in front of him the fifth spot are getting on base. If we have fewer people getting on base ahead of that spot, it doesn’t matter what happens in that spot in the order.
Bronn - August 5, 2010
Heyward is the best hitter on this team aside from McCann, and the best hitter should bat number 2. While this isn’t the methodology that Cox has when deciding to bat Heyward second, it does work out the best.
BenDuronio - August 5, 2010
Holy shit people. Not every game Heyward is going to go 2-4 or 3-5 or 1-3 with 2 walks! I bet if we had Pujols when he was struggling you would have said trade him.
Every single player goes on slumps and did I mention, he is a freakin rookie. Its a shame the pressure you put on this guy.
If Freeman gets called up, please don’t expect 310 10 HR’s and 40 RBIs for the rest of the season. Set realistic expectations for players and if they exceed them, your happy. If they meet the expectations, your pleased and if they don’t, give them another chance. Thank you
PhuckthePhillies - August 5, 2010
The question is do you think pressure from fans has had an impact on his gameplay? Heyward seems to be pretty mature.
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
The Braves always find ridiculous ways to lose to the Giants. Hopefully that ends now.
Ivan the Great - August 5, 2010
Going out on a limb here
I believe the Braves will sweep the Giants. We have 3 great pitchers and one good pitcher going. Any believers?
gsAppState - August 5, 2010
Don't stop Believing!
Hold onto that feeling
ATLBRVS_19 - August 5, 2010
streetlights, people, whoooooaaaah
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
Go Braves!!!
Braves Biceps - August 5, 2010
Memories...
of watching those Braves/Giants games back in the days of the NL West…from a freezing, windy Candlestick park…on those brutal west coast swings. I don’t like the Giants. I’ll always associate them with Barry Bonds and the sight of fireworks going off whenever that * hit a homerun during “the chase.”
Every game from here on out is huge. I’d take 3 of 4 in a heartbeat.
Chin Music - August 5, 2010
yeah...
I still go back into NL West mode when ever we play the Giants… something about those Halloween colors. I hope the heat and humidity drain the life from their pitchers. Well, not literally.
sddbaker - August 5, 2010
I just re-read “The Last Great Race” from ESPN on the ’93 division title race. What great memories…
CharlotteChop - August 5, 2010
Really good article
Better than almost all of the free content you see on ESPN.com these days.
Bronn - August 5, 2010
Can I get a link?
ATLforlife - August 5, 2010
Nevermind, got one from further down.
ATLforlife - August 5, 2010
someone knows something about Medlen??
joshant - August 5, 2010
If someone doesn’t maybe we can ask anybody if nobody knows anything.
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
Um….what?
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
I was confused by the “s” after the know and the question marks at the end so I thought I would be confusing myself. Or something like that.
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
ok then
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
Bored at work. Have to entertain myself somehow without (shudder) actually working.
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
I hear that. I’ve been sitting here for 4 hours almost. There’s only so much you can do on teh interwebz when you’re not in the privacy of your own home.
Sir Veza - August 5, 2010
I wouldn’t think of actually working at work :)
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
He’s a pretty good young pitcher for the Braves.
Richard R - August 5, 2010
has a good chanegup
leedawg - August 5, 2010
kind of a cute little fellow....
sddbaker - August 5, 2010
He likes the flat bill on his cap
Bronn - August 5, 2010
This is going to be a tough series and will quite honestly be happy with a split given the current momentum of each team.
CharlotteChop - August 5, 2010
agreed
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
I’m definitely glad this game is at the Ted. Anybody know if Glavine’s retirement is sold out?
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
"series"
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
For some reason, I’m most afraid of the Zito-hanson Game. Don’t know which Hanson will show up, and I’m not sure if we can hit the lefty, Zito.
Braves Biceps - August 5, 2010
I really think switching the side on the rubber will and has had a big impact on Tommy.
jbeachbum24 - August 5, 2010
Matt Diaz
says, “don’t worry, Biceps, I’ve got this.”
Jacob Peterson - August 5, 2010
Split
But rooting for sweep. Go Bravos!
Jman781 - August 5, 2010
They Giants lead the majors by swinging at 32.4% of pitches outside of the strike zone. The Braves swing at just 26.4%, lowest in NL.
BenDuronio - August 5, 2010
Does a 6% variance top to bottom create a noticable effect? Since both teams are in the top 4 in league W-L, I don’t see much of a correlation to anything with that statistic.
CharlotteChop - August 5, 2010
It doesn't correlate directly to wins,
but that 6% spread is pretty darn big. That means in a given game, the Giants swing at probably 3 or 4 more balls outside the zone than the Braves do. That may not sound like much, but if those swings alter the course of 3 or 4 different at-bats, it can really affect the game.
Swinging at pitches outside the zone is okay if you make contact with them. Then again, the Braves and Giants have identical contact rates on balls out of the zone. So the Braves do have a nice advantage there. Of course, that is partially offset by the fact that the Braves take 2.5% more strikes than the Giants do.
Jacob Peterson - August 5, 2010
where the heck
do you find stats like that?
Xshare - August 5, 2010
Fangraphs, StatCorner, Baseball-Reference.
BenDuronio - August 5, 2010
great stuff- I didn’t think it meant too much (and am not fully convinced it does, ha) but it is interesting nonetheless.
CharlotteChop - August 5, 2010
It leads to a higher walk rate for us and a lower walk rate for them. Hudson should see a good deal of success as he has thrown more balls this year than he more frequently does. Basically it says that this team hacks at the ball a lot more than others, so throwing them a ton of strikes probably isn’t a great idea. They aren’t very disciplined at the plate as a team, so taking advantage of that fact as a staff should lead to fewer runs allowed.
BenDuronio - August 5, 2010
It is definitely something the Braves can try to take advantage of in a short series.
CharlotteChop - August 5, 2010
Also, I guess they got all walked out after Bonds.
BenDuronio - August 5, 2010
i miss Francouer and Andruw.
10-4 - August 5, 2010
Tough series for both sides.
Should be lots of low-scoring games. (Watch each game by a slugfest now that I’ve said that.)
Losing this series would be understandable—the Giants are an excellent team—but it would be a very bad sign for us, especially given the way the Phillies are playing. I think most of us would be OK with a split, though of course our hopes are set a bit higher.
I predict another big series from Chipper Jones. Something tells me that the old man has woken up because with Prado out, the team needs someone else to carry them. I think he’s got at least one more stretch of dominant play in his old man’s body.
Jacob Peterson - August 5, 2010
Any predictions? It came true last night….
ATLforlife - August 5, 2010
I mean concerning the individual games.
ATLforlife - August 5, 2010
Let's go Mutts
I see them taking 2 of 3 from the Fillies
amman106 - August 5, 2010
not so much
since they’re best pitcher(dickey) won’t be pitching
Jaymin Patel - August 5, 2010
I like the whole
“enemy of my enemy is my friend” thing you’ve got going on.
Sir Veza - August 5, 2010
Good or bad idea
to have Huddy and Lowe going back-to-back? Both are sinkerball pitchers.
Sir Veza - August 5, 2010
Brian McCann might be making a push at the MVP
He’s tenth in the NL in WAR. Just two weeks ago, he was about 17th. He probably won’t chase down Votto unless Votto completely falls apart, but he puts together another couple of weeks like the last two, he could jump into the top 5 or so.
Bronn - August 5, 2010
Brian has been on fire since the ASG
MBL1 - August 5, 2010
Rare for me to think this for a home series but...
…I would be very happy with 2 out of 4 in this series. The matchups are tough and going up against a strong pitching team like this is the middle of a terrible clutch hitting slump just doesn’t bode well.
Buffalo Braves - August 5, 2010
This is going to be a good series
and probably low-scoring games. If we can win three out of four, then that would be a huge.
Braves24 - August 5, 2010
From the man who bleeds orange and black
I’m super excited about this series, for obvious reasons. All the more exciting is the fact I’ll be at the Ted for three of the four games.
The onnly drawback is that these are my two favorite teams. I want them both to win, though that’s impossible. We get the opportunity to see to good teams match wits, and I wouldn’t even hazard a guess as to which will emerge the victor.
That said, we’re going to crush you into the Stone Age.
I’m kidding. See? I’m a good guy.
TheLetter2 - August 5, 2010
Before someone pulls out that fucking grammar badge
“Two” good teams. We get to see two good teams.
TheLetter2 - August 5, 2010
Nope; that’s for the spelling police. You’re good.
ATLforlife - August 5, 2010
they both can win
Four game series. They could split
Braves24 - August 5, 2010
I am a closet Giants fan.
My dad and mom grew up in SF, so naturally I kind of like the SF teams (not the Oakland teams…or the Warriors), despite the crazy days of when the Falcons and Bravos were in the same divisions as the Niners and Giants, respecitvely…But at that time, I hated the Dodgers, not the Giants (“BEAT LA!”…oh…and Thank You!).
While I am a Braves fan first, this will be a fun series. I am attending the games on Friday and Saturday.
Jman781 - August 5, 2010
Oh, seriously. Fuck the Dodgers. But I love the Braves. I’ll never wish specific harm on a Brave, unlike my general animosity towards other NL West entities.
TheLetter2 - August 5, 2010
That’s somewhat interesting. I have many Giants fan friends (especially since I went to college in the Bay Area) who still despise the Braves (like how I despise the Yankees) for the ’93 division races that came down to the wire.
LEastCoastBears - August 5, 2010
It’s been talked about today on McCovey Chronicles.
TheLetter2 - August 5, 2010
Should be a fun series
with potential serious playoff implications as to the homefield (especially if the Giants overtake the Padres as expected by many). A series win (since we’re after all playing at home) would be huge.
LEastCoastBears - August 5, 2010
Here's a link to the article mentioned above:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=93pennant
The Last Real Race — great reading going into this series!
sddbaker - August 5, 2010
I’m calling it right now! I got the Journey music blaring in my head for some reason…….yes, showing my age. Braves Sweep! I think you will see the boys break out the lumber on this one, even when facing the lefties! We are coming out of the hitting funk! Go Bravos~!
jdmarine - August 5, 2010
Journey is from San Francisco.
SIGN FROM GOD
TheLetter2 - August 5, 2010
...that the Braves will triumph!
sddbaker - August 5, 2010
Sez you!
TheLetter2 - August 5, 2010
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