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Talking Chop

Braves at Reds Series Recap

Ending a nine game road trip with two straight losses hurts, especially when each series was lost. The Reds series was a frustrating one, mostly due to excess left on base totals. The Braves left a 32 men on base in the series, a frustrating number to say the least. But as someone noted in the comment section yesterday, it's better to leave men on base then not get them on at all. Eventually, those runs will get pushed across and as long as the Braves maintain their patient approach, the offense should start producing.

Game 1 Recap
Game 2 Recap
Game 3 Recap

What we liked:

Jason Heyward: Heyward only went 4-15 with a walk, but his three double performance in game one, including the go-ahead hit in the 10th inning, was crucial. The Braves may have been swept if Heyward did not come through with two outs against Francisco Cordero

Omar Infante: The super-utility man went 7-13 with two walks while filling in for the sick Alex Gonzalez and then injured Martin Prado. Infante's ability to play many infield spots and produce offensively while filling in for Gonzalez, Prado, Chipper Jones, or in left field is invaluable. With Prado injured, Infante becomes a very important member of this offense.

Brian McCann: The All-Star MVP went 4-10 with three walks and a home run in the series. McCann has been on fire since the break, putting up a line of .314/.417/.549 with four home runs. Additionally, Brian surpassed his walk total from last year yesterday afternoon, giving him more walks in just two thirds of this season. He needs just seven more to tie his career high of 57.

Star-divide

Tommy Hanson: The big right hander put together another very impressive outing but received a tough luck loss once again. Hanson pitched into the eighth and allowed just one earned run while striking out five and walking just one. In six starts since the start of July, Hanson has a 2.19 ERA and 5.29 strikeouts per walk. Also, Hanson's FIP of 3.14 ranks sixth in the National League and is a better mark than the 3.29 mark of Ubaldo Jimenez .

The Trade: The Braves lost next to nothing on the major league level and picked up a very good reliever and a powerful centerfield bat. The improvement from Jesse Chavez to Kyle Farnsworth was big enough alone, and now we have some extra pop in the lower half of the lineup, which is needed.

What we didn't like:

Troy Glaus: Glaus continued his slump, going 0-9 in his two starts. The Braves could really use the power he displayed earlier in the season, so hopefully he is able to get out of this swoon in the next few days.

Eric Hinske: The left-handed portion of the left field platoon went 1-10 with a walk in this series. With the Braves facing all righties, Hinske failed to produce much. Since May 19, Hinske has a line of .231/.311/.417.

The Injury: Losing a player with more hits than anyone in the league is never a good thing. Despite scoring a nice insurance run in the series opener, losing Martin Prado was unfortunate. Thankfully, it won't require an extended stay on the disabled list.

Defense: Melky Cabrera and Alex Gonzalez made big errors in the final two games. While the Reds would have already had the lead when Cabrera made that awful throw, not giving them another run would have kept the game a bit tighter. Gonzalez's error was inexcusable and turned out to allow the winning run to score.

Runners Left On: As mentioned in the introduction, the left on base totals killed the Braves this series. They should have scored a ton of runs off of Edinson Volquez but managed just one on a Gonzalez home run. 

Number of the series: 3

The amount of runs scored in the final two games. The staff allowed just seven runs over the final two games, but producing totals of two and run ones was the main reason for not winning the series. For some reason, the Braves haven't gotten it done on the road. They had just three wins on the road trip, going 3-6 in total. Getting a good start tonight against Johan Santana and the New York Mets would be very nice to see.

0 recs  |  70 comments

Comments

On the bright side, the Nats tried their best to help!

I’m down with ABP (Anyone But Philadelphia), and we at least managed to win the series and put a heartwrenching end to their 8-game winning streak with the Oswalt pasting and the rip your heart out at Zimmerman walkoff. Ultimately we ran out of starting and relief pitching by the end of the series. But even then we forced them to go 11, extended their bullpen some, and rattled them enough for Ryan Howard to get at least dinged (never root for injury, but well when the player injures himself and it’s the Phillies, ABP kind of demands you to at least not be but so sad).

I agree that getting lots of runners on base is better than not. Just need some timely hitting. That’s why I don’t think we needed to get a big bat at any cost. We have improved our bullpen and Ankiel is a better everyday player than Melky. Anyone is better than McClouth was. Melky on the bench makes us that much stronger. And we have all our main pieces still in the minors.

No he is not.

Maybe yes, maybe no...

…But certainly better than McClouth, whom he effectively replaced. Either Ankiel or Melky starting and the other one coming off the bench is a vast improvement.

It isn’t a maybe yes or maybe no at all. For his career and for this season, Melky has been better on both sides of the ball. Ankiel has a slight advantage in the power department, but that is it.

Career OPS+

Ankiel – 99

Cabrera – 87

Since Ankiel became an outfielder, his OPS+ is 103.

I am not familiar

with all these stats. Is OPS+ a good thing or a bad thing and what exactly is it?

OPS+ is OPS including park and era factors. 100 is dead average, below it is less than average and above is better than average.

So, then Ankiel is just about average and Melky slightly below average. Curious. What is Mcloth’s OPS+ this year?

49

So we have replaced an OPS+ of 49 with an OPS + of 103. Where’s the down side?

Like I said, Ankiel has marginally better power.

Melky makes fewer outs and has better D.

103 to 87 is significant. He’s an offensive upgrade. Trading some walks for extra base hits is good for this offense.

What is it this season – you know, the one in which Melky looks to be breaking out?

Melky? 85

And what is it since he caught fire around 20 May?

Can’t find the designation from that specific date, but it was 102 in May, 94 in June, and 121 in July. He received the most at bats in June. Seems to me that he’s one of those Matt Diaz, Omar Infante, Willie Harris types that Bobby Cox helps produce well by using them infrequently.

But he was starting every day during that span…he was being used infrequently in April-early May, IIRC.

Here’s a weird stat….the Braves are 40-39 in games that Melky starts. 16-6 in games that he doesn’t start. At least according to Baseball Reference.

That is weird.

Here’s another weird one (and it has no relevance to the current discussion)

Braves with Yunel at SS: 43-23
Braves with Gonzo at SS: 7-8

We’ve only had 24 games where Melky hasn’t started? Or is that games played?

Games where he hasn’t started. That’s what threw me too. BUT, I think when we had McLouth starting every game in CF, we had Melky over in LF…I think…

Apparently I can’t add either, because that’s just 22 lol.

Also, defensively it is hard to judge right now. Ankiel only has 203 games in centerfield, and UZR/150 is best used when judging three full seasons, not one and a little bit more. His positive number on the other corners could point to the small sample size hurting his numbers. While I doubt he’s above average, he may not be as below average as he is made out to be with that number.

We are getting caught up in a Melky vs Ankiel Debate

When really we have effectively made an Ankiel for McClouth move.

I’m not sure, considering Melky is the player that Ankiel is replacing right now. He’s the alternative, therefore it should probably be an Ankiel vs. Melky debate. I just look at the league leading .342 OBP this team has and the 11th best SLG at .396 and see that a problem with this offense is power, where Ankiel trumps Melky.

But wouldn’t McClouth likely be called up soon, if we did not get Ankiel? Or maybe Blanco? I agree that we expect more power from Ankiel than from Melky, but Melky was our 4th outfielder anyway at the start of the season. And it was he who got playing time from McClouth. So, in considering whether or not we praded, I think it is appropriate to look at it this way, too.

McLouth still may be called up soon if he hits well at Gwinnett. An outfield with an Ankiel/Diaz platoon in left, McLouth, and Heyward is likely the most talented and productive outfield we can have, given McLouth reverts back to his old self. I know few people think that’s possible or likely, but he’s got a good head on him and I think he can bounce back.

True, McClouth may get called up soon if he hits well in AAA. However, with Ankiel in the mix, we can be a little more patient. Also, I’m not sure McClouth is fully recovered yet. Calling him up now to play in the summer heat of Atlanta (yes I do realize that Gwinnett is just as hot, but you are not forced to play him there if he is feeling ill and he is not causing the big club to play 1 man down) if he is not 100% physically, will certainlyaffect his play.

28 more games this month, 19 at home.

I think the Braves will be just fine the rest of this month and September.

Can we add the “Rick Ankiel in a Braves uniform” to the “What we didn’t like” part?

are you implying the Braves didn’t at least marginally improve their power hitting, everyday lineup, and bullpen depth with that trade? For what the Braves gave up, I am intrigued at your argument how this lineup is not better than a roster with Blanco and Chavez.

how this roster* - not lineup

Because Ankiel will be taking time away from Melky, who is having a better season and for his career has been a better hitter with slightly less power.

Ankiel is not a powerful enough hitter to even be considered as the answer to our offensive problems

Ankiel is not a player who we can depend on to stay healthy

Ankiel is better than Blanco. Sure. Blanco was our AAA CF. I would hope that Ankiel would be better than that.

Ankiel used to be a pitcher, so of course Melky has better career numbers than him.

Ankiel only has about 100 PAs as a pitcher so I’m not sure that has much of an effect on his overall career hitting numbers since he’s got over 1200 PAs total for his ML career.

The problem with evaluating Ankiel is that he had 1.5 really good seasons with STL (over .840 OPS) and one really terrible season (.672 OPS) so it’s somewhat unclear exactly what his career numbers mean with regard to his actual talent level. He could be really good and just needs to bounce back from some problems or he could have just benefitted from being a new guy and won’t be able to do anything now that the league has figured him out (kind of like another outfielder we all know).

Just play him vs. RHP and he’ll have good results.

Yeah

Having watched him with STL (I live there) he is terribad against lefties.

I also just looked up his splits this season and his lefty/righty OPS is .398/.927 so he should work pretty well in a platoon role.

Now, as far as him starting tonight against Johan Santana…

I did not say “answer to problems”, i said “marginally improve” but I understand your argument. Ankiel isn’t the Crime Dog, obviously, but he gives the Braves, again, marginally improved power in the OF and Farnsworth v Chavez isn’t even worth taking the time to compare it’s so lopsided in the Braves favor. You haven’t argued how this does not make the Braves MARGINALLY better – for what they were forced to give up, which was basically 0.

Hey

remember when Blanco WAS on our ML roster. He was actually there for a while. He was bound to get called up again after Mclouth was sent down.

yes I remember, and what is your point?

sorry- disregard- i don’t think that was for me- reply fail – sorry

I DO remember that. It seems that it was when Diaz and Heyward were injured, leaving us with only Melky, Infante and Hinske to man the OF, and with Chipper’s injury, Infante had to fill in at 3B. So, yes, Blanco got time this season due to our lack of healthy OFers on the MLB roster.

That is not the case right now, and Blanco was on our AAA team at the time of the trade.

I do not see your point at all.

I may be an idiot but I assumed we traded for Ankiel to be Melky’s platoon partner in CF. I never figured he’d replace Melky permanently.

But even in a platoon, he takes away ABs from one of our hottest hitters.

If we want Melky to play more often, in left field in place of Hinske isn’t a terrible option.

No, it isn’t. I am fine with Melky platooning in 2 spots. I just don’t want him to lose ABs to Ankiel.

Melky’s career wOBA vs. RHP is .313 and Ankiel’s is .341. If you want to use the “he’s hot” argument, Hinske has been pretty bad since May 19, but there’s no way Ankiel shouldn’t start vs. RHP.

I think Hinske should cover 1B for a while to allow Glaus some relief. That or put him on the bench to allow Hinske some time to regroup. Diaz certainly shouldn’t be tired from all of his rest/injury earlier.

Similar to the Florida series last weekend

The Braves could have easily won all 3 or lose all 3 games. The futility with bases loaded or RISP are psychologically draining in the short term but it’s good to remember that we were just a bloop hit away from breaking the game open at many points. Things should even out.

Melky's throw

reminded me of Ankiel’s pitches against us in the 2000 playoffs.

lol

Interesting lineup tonight

Infante-2B
Heyward
Chipper*
Diaz
Gonzalez
Glaus
Ankiel
Ross

*Pending last minute scratch due to mastring/quad/oblique

ugh-*hamstring

Glaus 9 for 29 (.310), 2 HR vs. Santana. Here’s hoping he breaks out of his funk.

Good lineup, I’d play Melky instead of Ankiel in center and Gonzalez isn’t very good vs. LHP, and I assume Santana will make him look silly tonight.

Well, Bobby’s gotta play with his new toys-simple fact of life.

I didn’t expect it, but this is pretty scary.

Ankiel’s career wOBA vs. LHP: .303

Francoeur’s career wOBA vs. RHP: .302

Needless to say, I’m not really comfortable with Ankiel getting at bats vs. LHP.

yeah, Ankiel is quite bad against lefties

however in very small sample size vs. Santana, Ankiel is 2/6 with a double and only one K.

(Melky is 3/15 vs Johan Santana)

WOOT! MATTYD!

Calling it now.

Diaz goes yard.

Barf

Gonzo hitting 6th
No Melky
Ross hitting 8th – WTF?

Yeah, not sure why he’s hitting 8th.
/invades clubhouse and changes lineup

just a guess

But I’m betting Melky has the day off. He hasn’t had a game off in a month. Although, I don’t know why he didn’t get tomorrow or Wednesday off against a righty….

oh

and apparently Gonzo’s hitting 5th…. I’d like to see him in the 8 hole with Glaus 5th and Rossy 6th

No HRs yet for Ross.

I have no real reason though.

GONZO HITS DINGERZ

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