As the trade deadline approaches, the teams in the hunt for the post-season are bound to make some trades to add impact players to their team. The Braves have never been a team that has shied away from making a move -- even a big move -- to strengthen their team. In fact, if the Braves are anywhere near sniffing distance of a post-season berth come late July, then their front office is working the phones trying to add players.
This year we've heard most of the rumors about the Braves needing an outfielder and not pitching. The rumors just won't stop with regards to the Braves being tied to different outfielders. Whoever they try to acquire the Braves have one of the best and most sought-after commodities in baseball -- young pitching. And particularly young pitching that is close to Major League ready.
The crown jewel of this young pitching is 2009 first round pick Mike Minor. The left-hander was drafted seventh overall out of Vanderbilt, signed quickly, and has moved through the system even quicker, arriving at triple-A just last week where he has produced two excellent starts. Minor may not have the ultimate ceiling that pitching prospects Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino do, but he is about the closest thing to a Major League ready prospect that the Braves have, and he's a pitcher, and he's left-handed.
This combination of proximity to the Majors and good performance in the minors makes Mike Minor not only the most tradeable player that the Braves have in their system, but also one of the most tradeable players in the entire minor leagues. Add to that the fact that the Braves have pitching prospect depth with Teheran, Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado, and there's no real barriers to the Braves sending Minor to another team in the right deal.
The latest rumor comes from a Peter Gammons tweet, where he mentions that he's hearing Mike Minor to Milwaukee for Corey Hart. The Brewers' Hart has long been coveted by the Atlanta front office, as he has appeared in trade rumors for the last two years (so this rumor is nothing new). What is new is that the Braves may finally have a commodity that the Brewers want (and that Atlanta is willing to give up) -- Mike Minor.
Many people wondered why the Braves drafted Minor last year, as he was considered a safe pick and not a great pick, but a player who could move fast. The Braves may have drafted him in part with the knowledge that they could use him in a deal this year. The idea being to draft the guy who will appear the most Major League ready, and therefore have the most trade value. If that's the case, then that's pretty brilliant.
As for Hart, he's having a career year, so we would be buying him at maximum value. But he's got a year of arbitration left before he's a free agent, so it wouldn't be just a one-year rental.
As for trading away Minor, I wouldn't really shed too much of a tear. Like I said the Braves have great depth in starting pitchers in the minors, so while we would be losing our closet prospect to the Majors, he is currently blocked by all the guys signed through next season in the Majors.
Now if we could just get the Brewers to take Kawkami's contract, we'd be set.
0 recs | 562 comments
Funny…I mention this very thing a few days ago and people couldn’t imagine what I was talking about.
Gondee, in all seriousness though, why the sudden turn against KK?
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
He’s cost us about what Hart would next year, so I would want him off our books. A $7 million bullpen long reliever is not good business.
gondeee - July 8, 2010
He's more than worth his contract
as long as he’s starting. I’m sure lots of teams would LOVE to take him off of our hands if we’re just giving him away. I don’t think the Brewers give up much for him (he’s not that great), but he’s sure as hell better than most of Milwaukee’s starters, and at less than $7M per year, he’s a relative bargain.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
Yeah, but...
he’s not starting for us right now. Hell, he doesn’t even pitch for us in any role right now. That’s why I think Gondeee, myself and others are souring on him.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
So you're souring on him
because management can’t figure out that he’s a starter? That’s management’s fault, not KK’s. If we truly think we have 5 better starters, I understand. But we need to trade him (or another SP) then. He’s a starter, and as a starter he’s a good value. There’s no reason to hate on him because he’s not as good as Kris Medlen. A lot of guys who are perfectly good pitchers aren’t as good as Meds.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
His contract is bad
And the fact that he’s been removed from the rotation destroys his value. It’s hard to trade him now, maybe easier to do it in the offseason. A team in need of pitching help right now may be a good option, though.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
It's not a bad contract at all
Derek Lowe has a bad contract. Kenshin Kawakami is providing very good value for what we’re paying him-at least, when he’s starting.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
For example
He’s as good as Jeremy Bonderman, who’s making $12.5 million.
He’s better than Scott Feldman, who is making $13.325 million.
He’s as good as Jake Westbrook, who is making $11.million.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
The money is spent. Who really cares that he is worth $7 mill as a long reliever? Meds was in the bullpen at the minimum cost – the 2 flipped, and we aren’t losing any money. I understand that it is the “usage” of the money that bothers but it’s not a big deal. We have other money pits that are sucking us dry and not producing anything.
Pavy848 - July 8, 2010
Kawakami is worth more
to the braves as an affordable insurance 6th starter.
They shouldn’t try to include him in any deal.
They also shouldn’t trade for Corey Hart.
And while I’m on that: Just because there have been rumors of the Braves trading for Corey Hart over the past year or so doesn’t mean that they’re true, or that the Braves “covet” Corey Hart. They most likely checked in on every right fielder in the game last year in trying to replace Windmaker Francoeur.
Now: if the Braves were looking to save money in a deal while trading Minor for an OF, they should either get the other team to eat money on the player the Braves are getting; or else somehow convince them to take McLouth back (or possibly Melky; its entirely possible that McLouth could spend another month, two or even more on the DL from his concussion and the Braves could be recouping his salary via insurance, making him a wash. Not to mention the chunk of Matt Diaz’s salary they were able to get from insurance, and Jurrjens’).
nevin - July 9, 2010
McLouth is going to start his rehab assignment tonight.
You only get a month.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
Feldman isn't making $13.325 million.
Classic17 - July 8, 2010
Ooops, misread his contract details
Feldman is making $13.325 over three years.
Still, there’s plenty more examples if I wanted to dig them up. Scott Kazmir, for example, making $8 million, or Joe Blanton almost making $8 million, or Dice-K making $8 million (plus the 8 figures it took just to buy his rights). Carlos Zambrano is only arguably better than KK at this point, and he’s making $17.85 million this year, with a full NTC (I think), with two more years plus a player option after this one.
Saying that KK has a bad contract is just completely non-factual. He’s being paid about fair market value for the production he’s providing. I wouldn’t mind trading him if we can get back decent value, but we shouldn’t be looking to off-load his contract just to get out of paying him. That’s what we should probably do with Derek Lowe.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
Haha, no worries. I just had to do a double take. Your point still stands.
Classic17 - July 8, 2010
His contract is ABSOLUTELY not bad.
He outperformed it last year, and he was on pace to do so this year before being sent to the bullpen, even with his “struggles.”
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
But management has KK in the bullpen…so it doesn’t really matter.
Look, we can argue all you want and KK is a fine #5 starter, but the Braves have him as a long-relief pitcher. That might not be what you want, but it’s how it is. If you want to keep arguing about it, head to Turner Field and find the Front Office.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
just want to jump in here...
because i think both of you have a point. there is certainly a big difference between market value and value-in-use — KK’s highest and best use (market value) should be as a starter; but if the argument is that the value-in-use results in a negative market reaction and thereby closes the gap, then i could buy into that (some GMs still seem to rely on their own eyeballed opinions).
brndn - July 8, 2010
You guys soured on him before he went to the BP. Don’t lie.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Oh, so we’re not allowed to sour on a Braves player?
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
if it is justified
like Frenchy was. This just seems to be based on either bad stats like w-l, or misconception (doesn’t go deep enough into games, doesn’t k enough, etc.).
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
You should be pretty fair to Braves’ players. Garret Anderson was a huge, incredible mistake. Kawakami has been very solid, and much better than your typical #5 starter.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
agreed
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Exactly.
Look, I like KK and all, but he’s going to be an expensive relief pitcher for the next season and a half.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
Just another reason to keep him in the rotation.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
That may be, but is he in the rotation? No. So we have to judge him by what he is and what he’ll probably be for the next 18 months: a very expensive middle relief pitcher.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
No.
We should judge him based on his actual abilities. Which are those of a solid MLB 4th starter.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
this
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
That’s a stretch. He’s barely a solid 5th.
FitzFan - July 8, 2010
That’s a lie.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Based on what?
He is every bit a 4th starter on most clubs.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
3rd even.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
do you know what you are talking?
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
about?
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
Wrong.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
so his value is determined by arbitrary decisions made by ATL
good one
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
how is that decision arbitrary?
The role he’s pitching in is extremely important.
RichmondBraves - July 8, 2010
that'd be like moving johan to be a closer
then saying he’s not worth spending 16 MM on a closer so NYM need to get rid of him
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Or moving Pujols to utility role
then saying he’s not worth his salary because he’s not even a starter.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
But, he would be worth and AS spot.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Now that'd be a utility guy
that I could support for the all-star team!
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
Remember his first couple seasons he played all the corners and well
yondaime4 - July 8, 2010 via mobile
He would not be worth his salary at 20 million? a year. If you’re moving him because he stinks as a starter, why not trade him? You paid him a certain amount to perform a certain way, if he’s not why not try & dump the costs?
FitzFan - July 8, 2010
He performed just fine
The Braves happen to have the good luck of having six starting pitchers. Not the bad luck of having one stinker that they paid to be a starter.
His move to the bullpen has less to do with his performance and more to do with the other five pitchers’ performances.
-C
cthabeerman - July 8, 2010
He didn't "stink as a starter" by any means.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
And that would be right. If he sucked in the rotation & BP. Like with Carlos Z.
FitzFan - July 8, 2010
Who would you remove to "keep him in"?
honest question. I can see Medlen, but with the way he’s done, he deserves to keep starting.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
6 man rotation?
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Lowe…or trade Medlen.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
I'd trade JJ instead if I had to trade a young SP
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
Me too.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
I’d rather keep kk in the pen than trade a young starter.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
Even though we are loaded with young starters…?
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Not to mention the fact that JJ is a Boras client and is due for a HUGE increase in salary very soon.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
How soon exactly?
romone_braves91 - July 8, 2010
Well, he’s not eleigible for free agency until 2014. We may get hit in arbitration, but it’s not like he’s going to test the free agency market and force our hand anytime soon.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
This year, I think.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Correct.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Sure JJ is represented by Boras but it’s difficult to give away a proven starter with respectable numbers. I vote to keep JJ.
romone_braves91 - July 8, 2010
I absolutely love Jair Jurrjens
That being said, I’m with you on this. I like Minor as a starter, and the way he’s progressed, albeit shockingly to most, this year up through the ranks in the minors, he’s proving he could be a legit starter for us next year. We could also probably get more out of JJ than Minor. I don’t wanna join the bandwagon that KK is a japenese queer and he’s the worst thing ever, but if there is a way to trade him and keep Minor and Jurrjens, then we have to do that.
thenightstallion - July 8, 2010
I think it's about what you can get back.
Frankly, we’re far more likely to get back quality value in trading Medlen or Jurrjens because of their youth, affordability, and upside.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
I'm not for dealing Meds...
and like apparently you, I’d move JJ if I had to pick between the two. I think Medlen could be our closer next year, and that Jair would bring back a better return.
As for Lowe, as I say above, I think he and KK produce about the same, with the differences being double the salary (which we can all admit factors in the FO decisions whether or not it should), and he can go deeper in games (which is a legit point for keeping him starting imo).
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Lowe
who has lots of experience in relief and was excellent in that role.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
He was excellent in relief briefly...
…and then sucked in relief. Which is why he went back to being a starter. Remember the “Derek Lowe face”? (It was his look of total bewilderment when a younger reliever when things started going south.)
cavebird - July 8, 2010
See above on Lowe....
all things being equal (and I feel they are except salary), I’ll take the guy who can go deeper into games.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
10 years ago? He was also excellent as a starter much more recently than that.
Ron A. - July 8, 2010
Medlen.
Here are our options:
Which helps the team more?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
kawakami was effective last year in a relief role. The way you put it makes it seem like his stomach will turn inside out and start digesting the rest of him.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
He was mediocre in a series of low-leverage situations.
What good does that do the team?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
ok
but with Medlen in the pen, it gives Bobby another arm to use. Bobby will not use KK in situations as he would use Medlen. KK is a good fifth starter that could be a four or even a three on some teams. I rather have healthy and rested BP in September/October.
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
nope
KK is in the bullpen because it would be an embarrassment to send Lowe and his 45 MM remaining to the bullpen
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
yea, and derek lowe is 15 MM
and has been worse the past two years.
and no, i wouldn’t give up a young cost controlled arm for a marginal upgrade in the outfield
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
But we all know that he doesn’t belong in the BP.
I think he will probably be trade bait, since the powers that be have decided that he should be in the rotation anymore…for whatever reason.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
...for whatever reason
like the fact that he wasn’t as good as the other guy up for the job
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
He’s as good as Derek Lowe, though, who is making twice as much.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
But Lowe has a better record in the past...
I’d say both are similar now, although Lowe has more stamina/can go deeper, but their production outside of innings seems similar. So I’d keep starting him, hoping he can stay pitching strong and convince someone he’s worth the remaining years/salary so we aren’t on the hook.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
I think their IPs/game are about equal – at least, they were last season.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
KK made it through to 7 full
4 times last year, and once this year. Lowe did at least 7 full 8 times last year, and has 4 this year. I’m not sure on Innings/start, but I’d wager Lowe is better, and as said above, has shown a much better ability to go 6-7+.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
KKs pitch count in most of those games was pretty low, IIRC. Also, ther were many times that he was pulled way too soon, either for a PH or because Bobby wanted to do his Moylan Gonzo Soriano thing.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Reasons weren't asked...
and he could have yanked Lowe early too. I’m just saying Lowe seems more durable, and capable of going deeper. He’s always at 200 or more innings for a reason, and KK has always been pulled quick, I’d assume for a good reason.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
I’ll give you that.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Perhaps perception
Lowe’s reputation is as an innings eater may be the reason.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Agreed, but he earned that perception...
as said above, he’s gone deep into games the last two years much more than Kenny (reasons for that deepness aside). Many 200+ inning years, and he’s worked deep into games this year and in his last few outings.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Oh I agree
but KK has only been in the league for 1 full season. Lowe is an aging vet whose numbers have steadily declined. I don’t think it is crazy to think that he may not be the 200 inning horse he is perceived to be by reputation anymore, even if he did earn the reputation.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
That's different than what I said though...
which is simply that IN MY OPINION, Kawakami and Lowe have little difference in production when pitching, but that in comparing those two, Lowe is more likely to go deeper. KK may only have 1 full season, but I don’t think he’s ever had the reputation for pitching 7+ innings, and certainly hasn’t looked like the type since he got here.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
again
fair analyis.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Record in the past?
Kawakami was a stellar starter in Japan.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
terrible argument
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
what?
He’s not as good as medlen. Therefore, medlen stays in the rotation instead of kk. Seems just fine to me.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
He doesn’t strike out as many people as Meds, but he is every bit as good of a pitcher.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
The K rate is a fairly minor difference. Medlen’s is 6.6 K/9 to kawakami’s 6.2. However, Medlen has walked about half as many as kk, at 1.6 BB/9 to kk’s 3.1. Medlen’s ERA is 3.19 and kk’s is 4.48. Medlen’s WHIP is 1.145 and kk’s is 1.397. I’d say medlen is significantly better than kk across the board, except for k rate.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
KK had a rough time with walks at the beginning of last year too, and then he all but eliminated them – much like this year.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
…. while he was in the bullpen
Fatvirus - July 8, 2010
Um... No.
He pitched great as a starter from early May until Huddy came off the DL in late August. So that’s 3+ months of solid starting work.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
Negatron, Megatron. Try again.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Whoops, nope.
Good effort, though.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
I dont understand how this means KK is as good as Medlen? Medlen is better, he is consistent and knows how to hang in there for the win. KK doesnt, that sucks.
dean0uga - July 8, 2010
Run support makes it pretty easy to "hang in there."
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
even when KK got run support, he let it right up… its not as if KK has a mid 3 ERA…
dean0uga - July 9, 2010
False.
justincredubil02 - July 9, 2010
Medlen hasn’t been the model of consistency as a starter – granted, it’s a very SSS, but the point remains.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
looking at last year’s stats, from july on, kk had 3 bb/9, right about in line with what he’s done this year, and still almost double medlen’s numbers
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
no, he should be compared to fifth starter
derek lowe
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
But it's not a one-for-one question.
One of them has to relieve. Medlen does that very, very well. Kawakami is mediocre at best, and will likely never have the trust of Cox to use him in high-leverage situations.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
If we're dumping a salary, why not Lowe instead of KK...
he’s considered better, certainly has the better past history, and is paid double KK.
I think Kenny is fine as a starter too, it’s just that we have others better right now. It’s not like he’s a long releiver because he failed as a starter. He had some bad outings, but generally he was a decent starter who for two years got a ridiculously small amount of run support leading to a horrid W-L record.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
if we could dump lowe’s salary, I’m sure we would
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
I'd see him easier to dump than KK right now
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
maybe
but lowe is 37 and has 45 MM left not 15 MM left
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
No one will give us anything for Lowe unless the Braves pay at least half his salary.
Even then i’m not sure we’d get more than a C grade prospect
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
But he's not even a long reliever.
He’s a decoration in the bullpen. Like a garden gnome.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Then let him start!
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
It's not sudden
Gondeee has been irrationally hating on KK for a long time now. It’s getting old, if you ask me.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
Gondeee being Gondeee, if you were to ask me.
bwellnjonesco - July 8, 2010
I don't like the deal...
I prefer keeping Minor, and seeing if he can take over the 5th starter slot next year getting a better package for JJ as his salary rises, or instead hopefully finding a taker for Lowe’s remaining $30m. Hart isn’t bad, but I don’t think he’s worth Minor going forward, especially if Diaz and McLouth come back and play at the level they’re capable.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Still not convinced
that Diaz’s capabilities are as high as others seem to think. Just my opinion. Still dont’ know what happend to McLouth though. He turned into a pumpkin fast.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Diaz has proven over time...
especially when used as a lefty platoon player in the back of the order, to be outstanding. I never thought he was good enough to be a 150+ game leadoff man as some tried to claim in the offseason, but for the role of facing lefties in a platoon, he’s proven to be a great option.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Exactly
I said a thousand times that it was ludicrous to expect him to be a leadoff man. I agree, great in a platoon, but not so great beyond that.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
I suspect when he gets away from the Braves & gets some respect he will show he can be a solid starter. You Diaz haters will see.
FitzFan - July 8, 2010
I hope he proves me wrong
I love Diaz, really do. Great guy, hard worker. But he isn’t a 26 year old non-prospect surprising us all. He is a 32 year old journeyman who has found a fit and playing his heart out in a very good situation. The likely scenario is that the Braves have maxed his potential using a platoon.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
this
We all know we mashes lefties, but he hits righties a lot better than people give him credit for. He definitely should be starting over Melky
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
LOL.
He’s what, 32? Ain’t gonna be too many chances left. And he got his shot last year…and failed miserably.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Failed miserably? He was one of the hottest hitters in the second half last year.
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
Sorry, yes, you're right.
I was talking about ’08, when we tried to use him as an everyday starter and he flopped.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
Failed miserably?
He was our best hitter last year. No one did more with the bat to help his team than did Matt Diaz last season.
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Braves&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=6&season=2009&month=0
see there.
Bronn - July 9, 2010
Where'd you get your Peter Gammons Tweet Decoder Ring?
I can’t figure out “We’d bp rumor”
KoKo the Monkey (T-Bone) - July 8, 2010
I’m guessing it’s “Wednesday batting practice rumor.”
gondeee - July 8, 2010
How much would he cost in arbitration next year?
$5 mil or so?
KoKo the Monkey (T-Bone) - July 8, 2010
I’m guessing more like 7 or 8
gondeee - July 8, 2010
Ugh.....Hart?
Yeah, a right fielder who plays bad defense and other than this career year has shown just marginal power with a low OBP.
WHY ARE THEY EVEN CONSIDERING HIM?
ATLandUNC - July 8, 2010
’Cause he would be an upgrade over anything we have in LF right now?
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
And if he regresses anywhere close to his career norm
The Hinske/Diaz platoon would still be 10x better.
ATLandUNC - July 8, 2010
Besides Willingham, I’d rather have Diaz and Hinske in a platoon than Corey Hart.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
+1000
Especially if we have to give up our best lefty prospect. All of our starters are right handed and even the majority of the prospects are right handed.
Southern IN Chopper - July 8, 2010
Depends on which Diaz we are talking about…and which Hinske.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Looks like a pretty potent platoon...
the way Diaz hit lefties and Hinske can mash righties. I’ll take that over Hart. The question is more CF in my mind, especially since you could use McLouth or Melky in LF if CF was taken care of.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
And also, is the upgrade of Hart from those two...
worth the long term value of a long, quality starter such as Minor? I just don’t think that’s good value, not for Minor, and not over the current OF either.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Valid points.
I am not necessarily in favor of Hart, but I am in favor the idea of dealing Minor.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
agreed
Hart is scary. Does he turn into a pumpkin again after this year (seriously Frenchy-Esque for 2 years until 2010), or is he the 20-20 threat from his early beginnings, or is he the masher he is now. I just dont’ know what Hart is, or what he will be.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Which I can't really argue with,...
we have enough starters to deal one. The debate would just be who, and for what. The ideal who is personal opinion to each, but for what is getting me here. Hart ain’t worth it, at least not for any more than a Rohrbough, Redmond, Diamond, etc (ie not a potential long term piece such as a Minor, Dunn, Kimbrel, Hoover, etc).
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
If Hart plays the 2nd half like he did the 1st half, would he be worth it?
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Worth Minor?...
my initial reaction would be yes. But again, I really don’t think he can have a 2nd half like his first. He’s only 5 off his career high in HRs. With 19 now, I can’t see him hitting 40.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
And that is where the opinions differ then.
I am willing to risk Minor in this case. I understand if others aren’t, and I can’t say that it is bad logic to think that way. I am a risk taker though, and dealing from a position of as much strength as we have with SP, it is almost and easy gamble for me.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
So then there's the difference...
you think Minor’s improvements are a flash in the pan, but Hart’s aren’t. I think Hart’s 1st half is the flash, while Minor could be maturation and major league fine tuning of his mechanics.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
I didn’t say Minor was a flash in the pan. I said that the concern is there.
I also didn’t say that Hart was not a flash in the pan. I said I am willing to take the risk, if it means getting us a masher bat for our 2nd half playoff run.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
No, you didn't say it...
you just implied it and included qualifiers like maybe, could and possibly to cover your ass when people call you on stupid ideas like Hart keeping up his current pace or Minor playing above his head.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Seriously?
Is it really unrealistic for a guy with great potential to have a career year?
Is it unrealistic for a guy to show great promise in the minors, only to never really reach that potential?
Stop trying to be high and mighty and just concede that Hart could be having a career year and Minor could be less than what he looks right now.
I am not throwing qualifiers to “cover my ass over stupid opinions”. I am using qualifiers because that is exactly what all of this is: a mystery.
Why can’t you have a fucking civil conversation? Can you not agree to disagree? Does it pain you to admit that other people’s (mine in particular) ideas may have some merit?
I thought at first you were just being hilariously stubborn like me, but now that I see that you can’t even have a civil disagreement without turning into an ass, IDK.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
also
Hart wasn’t exactly a non-prospect either. He is a guy who was expected to be better than he has been for his career up until this season.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
So was Andy Marte and others...
he’s 28, and may well be having a career year. But as said above, I think he’s having a hot half and is closer to the hitter we’ve seen the last two years than so far in this one.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Perhaps
I’m just throwing taht out there. Hart was percieved to be better than he has been based on minor league numbers and his first season or so in the majors. He then underperformed badly for 2 years. He may have just figured it out at 28 like an Ian Kinsler. We don’t know right now what he is, or will be. Like Minor, except a position player with ML experience.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Exactly.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Well said sir...
I don’t think that to be the case re Hart, but what you say can certainly become the truth (since it’s all specualtion now as we’re discussing what their respective futures may or may not be)..
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
and taht is perfectly fair
I’m not convinced either, just not ruling out the possibility.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
And clearly,...
I don’t think that possibility is worth Minor. See, I can have a civil disagreement Kettle! Andy and I have done so multiple times.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
And what of the possibility that Minor slows down, perhaps as soon as the remainder of this season?
What sense would there have been of keeping him then? We’ve already seen Chuck James and Anthony Lerew and Jo-Jo Reyes come and go.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Marte never showed the ability to hit in the bigs.
Hart already has: 2007.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
I tried to agree to disagree, see above...
That’s when you came back with the “I didn’t say that” post. But welcome back kettle, I’d say I missed our conversations, except that’d be a lie.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
But, I didn’t say that. Don’t put words in my mouth.
I think Hart is a flash in the pan. I just think that flash is going to burn for a while longer.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
As said, now for what, the 3rd or 4th time. I agreed to disagree on Minor and Hart. But here you are saying “I didn’t say that”, again, which I accurately quoted above. And no I’m putting words in your mouth? No, you did say that, and when I tried to ask a straight question below about Minor’s improvement being from natural maturation and professional coaching you dodged the question. Be safe in Afghanistan Kettle, I’ve had enough of this nonsense.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
So, no, you are not accurately quoting the conversation. You never asked a question about Minor’s improvements. You made a statement about them.
Good night, Pot.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
That was my summation of our sides...
in an attempt to, as it’s called, agree to disagree.
And I most certainly did ask a question. Scroll down a little, or I’ll just quote the exchange below…
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 8, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. That is exactly what "slight concerned" and "could possibly" mean.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 8, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Please directly answer the question… is that not a valid reason for his improvement in velo and K rate?
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
jesus christ
do you know how to read? Just reading your arguments are getting annoying. Just give it up my god. You’ve made no progress during this conversation and are just beating a dead horse.
RichmondBraves - July 8, 2010
haha
The stuff in the box. How do you do that? Stupid question
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
when you reply...
there’s options between a header and body. B bolds things, I italicizes, S strikes through, quote marks quote, the chain link links, and the tree is for images. To bold, italicize, quote, or strike, I highlight the part I want to do that to before clicking the B, I, S or ".
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
thanks
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
i just want to see how small this can get, to be honest
15ks - July 9, 2010
hmm
i guess no smaller
15ks - July 9, 2010
thats what she said
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
BOOM! Roasted.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
Hart's done this before in the bigs, though.
His numbers this year are almost exactly the same as 2007.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
How exactly do we consider Minor a "long, quality starter?"
Half a decent season in the minors where he’s pitching lightyears ahead of anything he’s ever shown before?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Didn’t you see Diaz punish Moyer and Hamels the last two games?
The guy was hurt, give him a break.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
So
he punishes lefties. We all knew that. I would like the Braves to have at least 2 full time players in the OF, not a rotation of 4th OFers like they have now.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
you do realize heyward is on the DL right?
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
not for long
The point is I want Heyward and another full time OFer, not Heyward and the island of unwanted toys…
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Which will hopefully be McLouth if he can get right...
or perhaps Melky. I do agree with this idea of wanting a full time OF to join Heyward, I just don’t see the need for that to be LF (or Hart) instead of a CF.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Fair point
I am just not sure about McLouth. Just because he has been struggling for so long that I just dont’ know what to think. He was definitely a solid to above average regular in Pittsburgh, but since arriving and getting a few nagging injuries he has done so little of productive value.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
I'd rather have 4 4th OFers
than McLouth. He’s been awful as a Brave.
RichmondBraves - July 8, 2010
I counted McLouth
among the 4th OFers (because at this point, that is what he has been).
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Then he should be a 5th OF. Diaz & Milky have been better than him
FitzFan - July 8, 2010
Not in their careers they haven't
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Over the course of three months of baseball?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Cabrera has never been a quality everyday OF.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Misfit
Misfit toys…somebody will always want them.
Pavy848 - July 8, 2010
The Braves need a right handed CF who can play the position well.
The platoon between Diaz and Hinske would be fine in LF.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
Diaz is far from unwanted or a toy, neither is Hinske for that matter
FitzFan - July 8, 2010
haha
that particular comment was a joke, and more based on Melky.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Two games determine a player's ability?
Since when???
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
There’s actually a fairly substantial history of Matt Diaz being an above average hitter, if you hadn’t already noticed.
Bronn - July 9, 2010
but always in a platoon situation
Andy Braves Fan - July 9, 2010
which he is in, and will be in for the rest of the season
so we should expect above average production out of him in the role he will be expected to fill.
Mr. Sanchez - July 9, 2010
exactly
but no greater. I want a full time above average producer. The Braves shouldn’t have to carry 1/2 dozen OFers for 3 spots.
Andy Braves Fan - July 9, 2010
I just think the better fit for a full timer producer is CF than LF...
Hinske/Diaz in LF I like better than a Melky/McLouth platoon in CF (this is pure personal preference I guess with no real reason to differentiate). But then, there just doesn’t seem like a true above average producer available. There are potentially that with guys like Hart, Dejesus, among others, but they could just as easily fall back to their past subpar production (especially Hart) with no real sure thing on the market like say Holliday last year, or Bay a few years ago with the Pirates.
Mr. Sanchez - July 9, 2010
DeJesus has NEVER been "subpar."
He’s averaged more than 3 WAR in his career, and he’s only been below 2 once.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
Corey Hart...
Wouldn’t be an upgrade over a platoon of Matt Diaz and Eric Hinske in LF.
Wouldn’t be an upgrade over Jason Heyward in RF.
Can’t play defense in RF, much less in CF where the Braves need the upgrade.
Has never had an OBP above .353
If it were Cliff Lee, the Braves should consider trading Minor, but not for Corey Hart.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
+1million
for common sense
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Doesn’t something need to be true to be common sense? If someone is just pulling stuff out of their backside, wouldn’t another description be more accurate?
Salty - July 8, 2010
He would be an upgrade over a Diaz/Hinske platoon in LF.
He is not replacing Heyward in RF.
He isn’t playing D in RF, let alone CF.
That OBP is not a bad OBP.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
but not good enough to net mike minor
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
That depends on if we are selling high on Minor or not.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Exactly.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
Wait a sec…weren’t you in the “why did we draft this guy?” crowd?
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
He's not the same pitcher
As the guy we drafted.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
Sure he is. He has some more velocity and is striking out people more often, but he is the same guy that the Braves F/O saw and wanted.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Exactly
What the FO saw and wanted was different than what we saw. They saw the potential for him to be a high K guy and develop him, most of us saw a middle-of-the-rotation type with good control. He’s altered his perception.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
But the F/O hasn’t – which is kind of the point here.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
And you know what the Front office thinks of him...
how?
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Because they drafted him with the 1st round pick when it wasn’t the popular thing to do.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
So is it not reasonable to think...
the current Minor we see (with the improved velo and K rates) is what they thought they were drafting, and not the soft tossing middle/back of the rotation guy everyone else said they took?
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
No, it's not.
You don’t randomly predict a college vet to pick up several MPH on his fastball and start pitching differently than he ever has.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
so minor leaguers don’t improve? interesting theory…
telemakhos - July 9, 2010
Gosh, this thread is so full of acerbic comments that are not only annoying in their snippishness, but completely off base as well.
With a pitcher who had college experience, was fully grown and projected like Mike Minor was, who had a fairly substantial history of college pitching, it was highly improbable for him to add significant velocity to his fastball after being drafted. Which he did, and it’s pretty shocking for everyone. No one is saying that minor league players don’t improve, but for a physical attribute to show such a gain like that is very very rare.
The Braves might have had an especially keen eye with Minor. I think what happened with Minor is that he was being overtaxed at the college level-it happens fairly often. He had an offseason where he barely pitched as the Braves signed him and he didn’t really make any appearances until the AFL, and then he came into this season with a really fresh arm and found a little velocity he didn’t know he had. The Braves might have suspected it was there, but with no prior evidence of it, it’s more likely they got lucky.
Bronn - July 9, 2010
not really
this is all in response to you criticizing that poster above for being on the “why did we draft him” bandwagon. His perception is all that matters in this discussion
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
That was 13 months ago
Players do get better…
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
LIES!
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
So I bet you think Gregor Blanco is an All-Star CF, huh?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
what does that have to do with anything?
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010
You're apparently convinced by a short string of solid performances that Minor is an elite pitching prospect.
What’s the difference between that and Blanco?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
There’s absolutely no reason to compare Mike Minor to Gregor Blanco. Stop being an argumentative jackass.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010
You could always stop ignoring a valid question.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
Justin:
Eric Hinske’s career wRC+ against RHP: 113
Matt Diaz’ career wRC+ against LHP: 139
Corey Hart’s career wRC+: 113
Corey Hart’s career wRC+ against lefties: 129 (Worse than Diaz)
Corey Hart’s career wRC+ against righties: 107 (Worse than Hinske)
Matt Diaz respective UZR and DRS in LF: 7.8 and 3
Eric Hinske respective UZR and DRS in LF: -0.2 and -6
Corey Hart’s career UZR and DRS in RF: -11.6 and 4
So giving a good prospect for less production is the dumbest thing the Braves could do
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
Except, Matt D and Cory H are not playing to their career numbers this season. This would not be a long term deal or a deal with long term consequences.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
So, you are basing all in a small sample size?
Diaz was hurt and Hart is having a career year.
There is something called regression to the mean.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
Yes. This is all based on a small sample size. We need OF help this year. Hart is playing well this year. He theoretically would not cost us much (at least, nothing that would hurt us).
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
And what I’m trying to say is that there is no evidence Hart will hit better going forward than the Diaz and Hinske platoon.
The most likely scenario is Diaz and Hinske outperforming Hart the rest of the season.
If Corey Hart could play CF well, maybe, but he can’t. And even then I wouldn’t trade Minor for Hart.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
It is a risk that someone somewhere has to decide if they think they are willing to take or not.
My perception: If Corey Hart has a 2nd half like his 1st half, and all we give up is Minor, the trade is completely worth it to me, regardless of what Minor turns out to be or if we let Hart walk after the season.
We have enough pitching depth to absorb any potential blow a Minor loss would give us, and our biggest weakness this year is in LF.
Ideally, any trade we make would involve a replacement for Chipper (or Yunel if he moves to 3B), but in a “win now” move, I like this one.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Our biggest weakness is in CF**
ATLandUNC - July 8, 2010
Depending on what McLouth can do when he comes back – or Schafer.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Mclouth
Has given no reason to provide hope since he stepped foot in Atlanta.
ATLandUNC - July 8, 2010
Less than 1 full season, btw.
I am not saying he will bounce back, but I am saying that there is a good reason to believe he will.
Same with Hart, I guess. There is definitely concern that he could slip to his old self. But, I am willing to take a risk and gamble one of our many stud arms to find out.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
You shouldn’t be allowed to use the SSS argument one time and then ignore it other times.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
I just admitted that it works both ways. I then explained my position on why I favor one SSS over the other.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Even if Mclouth bounces back, he can’t play defense and he can’t hit lefties.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
He can play perfectly fine defense.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Is his "old self" the one who hit so well in '07, though?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Nate McLouth’s line last year as a Braves was .257/.354/.419 which is pretty darn good for a CFer. It’s much better than what we’ve had out there going all the way back to 2006, when Andruw Jones was going well for us.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
Not so good if his defense isn’t good to great.
FitzFan - July 8, 2010
His defense is, at worst, decent...
And it’s often good.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Well, it's probably below average
But not so far below average that he’s incapable of playing the position. He had a very solid season last year, defensively, but it might have been just a little above his normal ability.
Bronn - July 9, 2010
Schafer should not be in a discussion...
around the rest of this season. He won’t be up until next year, at the earliest.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
You sure?
I’m almost certain he’ll be up during September.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
you’re sure a guy that is OPSing .519 in AAA with an unhealed wrist is going to get a september callup to a team with half a dozen 4th outfielders?
telemakhos - July 9, 2010
ya what the hell…i said his floor right now is a 700 OPS and good defense and you told me im wrong…but you think he’s a sept callup…if he cant post a 700 OPS why call him up.
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
sry this comment is directed at Procton
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
Bombs Away!
Mr. Sanchez - July 9, 2010
See below.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
Yes.
Because there’s absolutely no reason for him not to be up as an extra option, even if he never steps up to he plate. He’s already on the 40-man, so he’s a valuable option as a PR and defensive replacement.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
Two things...
looking at his past 3 years, that is a huge if on Hart. And disagree on our biggest weakness in LF. Hinske and Diaz can work that fine. Our weakness is in CF (Melky/McLouth).
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
It’s not worth it because the team can have the same performance with Diaz and Hinske occupying the position in the field Hart would take.
Hart ain’t Barry Bonds in left field. Why give anybody (much less Minor) for a guy who is going to produce less than what’s already in place? That’s insanity.
Once again, the Braves need a right handed CF because Mclouth can’t hit lefties and plays horrible in CF, and Melky plays decently in the field but can’t hit a lick.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
Or they can get better performance. I’d say that’s likely. Constantly assuming negatives and asserting uncertainties as the opposite is bad reasoning.
Salty - July 8, 2010
McLouth isn't CLOSE to "horrible" in the field.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Nonsense.
Salty - July 8, 2010
Is that not even MORE reason to get rid of Minor?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
One thing you have to do
when evaluating these types of things, is try and think who will be more productive from here on out. Whether Hart has hit 50 home runs or Diaz is hitting .150, you have to consider how they will do in the future more so than what they have done in the past.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
I am thinking more with a “hot hand” mentality. Based on that, I have to assume that Hart is going to continue to have a career year, and that Diaz is not.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Haven't you read studies in basketball that say...
The hot hand doesn’t exist.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
Sure haven’t…and it does exist. Trust me – I am one of the streakiest shooters you will ever meet.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
There is a study that asserts everything. The existence of a study doesn’t really mean much. Besides in order for that to be true a great deal of current science would have to be thrown out.
Salty - July 8, 2010
Over the last week, Matt Diaz has a .333/.333/.733 line.
Over the last week, Corey Hart has a .310/.333/.467 line.
So who’s the hot hand?
The real question is, what sample size is too small?
Bronn - July 8, 2010
That’s what she said.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Assuming UZR to be a good measure of defense is astonishingly ignorant. Assuming that career numbers are some sort of certainty is just as bad. Getting more production for a good prospect is what?
Salty - July 8, 2010
I guess we'll just agree to disagree on your first sentence...
cause I’m not buying that.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Even going by the numbers this year?
We are talking about this year, and this year only.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
We are not talking just about this year. If the Braves trade Minor, they are trading a possible #2 or #3 starter and 6 years of service time for a corner OF that doesn’t hit enough and can’t field his position.
If it were Franklin Gutierrez, that’d be another story.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
Except the Braves have plenty of other guys that can be a #2 or #3 starter with 6 years of service time. That is the whole point here.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Like Vizcaino? I think that injury will require Tommy John surgery.
Nobody knows with pitchers. It’s better to have depth
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
He is just one of about 4 or 5…which is the point here.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
...which is why they're choosing to ignore it, right?
Yeah, I’ve noticed most teams don’t treat teenage pitching studs with much caution, too. Please.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
And they have a guy who can do what Hart is doing...
in Diaz when he’s hot (like Hart is). I’m just not going to buy into the idea that because Hart had a strong first half that it will hold for the full year. So we are not talking “about this year and this year only”, because the first half of this year is already in the books. We’re talking about what he’ll provide for the REST of this year, and in Hart, I’m not inclined to think he’ll keep it up for the full season.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
I don't know if Minor
has the ceiling you think he does.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Since ceiling is the best possible scenario,
I’d say a #2 starter is more than fair for Minor.
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
Well then Hart's "ceiling" must be about 25 homers and a 900 OPS for the rest of the year.
I guess you don’t think we could use that? Or do you think Diaz and Hinske will give that to us?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
What he is done in AA and AAA is impressive. So there is high probability he could be a pretty good starter.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
So were the numbers...
From Jo-Jo Reyes and Bruce Chen and Anthony Lerew and Chuck James and James Parr…I could go on.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
They're prospects...
they don’t all pan out
acie4mvp - July 8, 2010
Exactly why we shouldn't cling to them like diamonds until they don't.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Lefty, with good mound presence,...
and command of multiple quality pitches can have a high ceiling.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Did you think the same thing about Chuck James?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
This is utterly irrelevant
acie4mvp - July 8, 2010
Is it?
Former Braves prospect with good mound presence, command of multiple quality pitches, and excellent minor league results (a far longer and better track record than Minor, even.)
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
chuck really just had the one quality pitch.
telemakhos - July 9, 2010
thank you
and Vandy vs. Chuck james?
Mr. Sanchez - July 9, 2010
I doubt anyone said the same about Chuck James, who had only two pitches, and neither of them was an above average fastball. Chuck James had the same velocity on his fastball that Minor was PROJECTED to have (actually slightly less). Minor has much better velocity and three plus pitches (fastball, slider, change), as well as a curve he’s been developing.
Completely different prospects.
Bronn - July 9, 2010
Minor is smarter then Chuck James.
Brains make you more likely to realize your potential.
Broccoman - July 9, 2010
most scouts I have read
have said ceiling of a 3 starter. If he doesn’t get traded, would love to see him prove them wrong. They all said the same about Glavine.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
A lot of those scouting reports are from before this year’s velocity and command improvements.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
and sound like stereotypical scouting of a so-called lefty finesse pitcher
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
I am slightly concerned that these improvements could possibly be flashes in the pan.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
me too a little
but if his velocity stays up, im not as worried
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
For a true flash in the pan please see:
Corey Hart’s stats for the first half of the 2010 season.
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
The exact same can be said for Minor, ya know…
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Except it's more reasonable for Minor than Hart...
given Hart has a good size major league history that shows he’’s not normally this good. And Minor is in his first full year with our coaches. Given their current circumstances, Hart seems much more likely to be the “flash in the pan” than Minor.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
But again
Hart has been underperforming His expectations from the minors. Is it so difficult to imagine that Minor might do the same?
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
No,...
but as said above, I don’t think Hart has been “underpeforming”. I think his minor league projection has proven to be inaccurate.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
The guy is 28
not 40. Plenty of players bloom late. Ian Kinsler bloomed at 28, Jayson Werth broke out at 30. I dont’ think any thing is proven with him yet. Not saying taht he wil continue this torrid clip, but since he is performing, we do have to consider teh possibility it isn’t a fluke.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Correct, it is a possibility...
I don’t think it’s a good possibility, or a possibility worth giving up Minor for, but those are personal opinions.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Don’t tell anyone, but this is his first year of wearing eye correction. He never wore glasses or contacts and they found out he needed them in ST. Advanced statistical analysis will tell you something about that no doubt, but common sense is moderately useful.
Salty - July 8, 2010
That's interesting
I did not know that. It could explain a lot.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
or it could mean nothing, just like the old laroche on ADD meds explanation for one of his hot streaks.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
i’d say a lot of the work he’s done with the hitting coach may be significant as well. His achilles heel has been the outside breaking ball. Seeing the ball’s movement and spin as well as working to get better seem like a liklihood to me.
Salty - July 8, 2010
I didn’t want to throw this in because its virtually meanignless…but it seems that he has made a more concerted effort to lay off pitches on the outer half of the plate. he concentrates on hitting the stuff he can get to. what is weird (or not really that weird at all depending) the numbers dont really bear this out, his outside the one swing % is slightly less than his career avg, so maybe its true.
Swo12bv - July 8, 2010
After our dealing with McCann and McLouth...
there might be hesitation on adding another since we don’t have the best of luck with those types. [sarcasm font]
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Probably because Corey Hart
always wears his sunglasses at night.
jtw126 - July 8, 2010
+1000
hahahahaha
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
He's been exactly this good during 1.5 of his 3.5 years as a full-time player!
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
way to ignore the 2 year chunk of that and only consider the 1.5 year good chunk.
telemakhos - July 9, 2010
He’s just making the point that Hart is quite capable of being this good. He isn’t ignoring anything. The only ignoring is being done by those who think Hart is just like Francoeur.
justincredubil02 - July 9, 2010
Not really...
his career high is 24 HR in a full season. Right now he has 19. At the current pace he’s on, that’s a lot more power than he’s ever shown before.
Mr. Sanchez - July 9, 2010
Granted, nobody thinks he is turning into an annual 40 HR hitter, but the guy has always had decent power potential.
justincredubil02 - July 9, 2010
Yes, he might not hit 30 more homers.
But look at his slash line. Almost identical to his first full season.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
I'm not ignoring it.
I’m saying that he’s done this before, and it’s entirely possible that he’ll continue to do so.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
there’s a much larger history of hart sucking in the majors than there is of minor having less velocity and command. Also, minor is younger and in transitioning to pro ball is much more likely to have improved.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
based on?
Salty - July 8, 2010
So what were his stats for the WHOLE 2007 season?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
So a kid can't join a minor league system...
get a little stronger on their conditioning program, in addition to maturation physically as he gets older, and the minor league instructors can’t tweak his delivery to possible improve things? I’d assume our pitching coaches can do more and improve him better than Vandy’s can, all due respect to what has proven a great college coaching staff for pitchers.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Yes. That is exactly what “slight concerned” and “could possibly” mean.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Please directly answer the question...
is that not a valid reason for his improvement in velo and K rate?
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
As a 22-year-old with three years of college under his belt?
No, not likely. Not five MPH.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
This happens all the time for pitchers. Usually, they’re tall guys and it’s labeled “projectability.” When a guy has a big frame, but not a lot of muscle, the dedication of a major league conditioning program does wonders for their strength. I don’t claim to know mike minor’s conditioning program or what his habits in college were, but no longer having to take classes 5 days a week, along with pitching more frequently and having professionals help you with conditioning means that he’s being put in the best position possible to add strength.
Hell, maybe he improved his mechanics. Maybe he’s better rested. Maybe he’s trying harder.
Believe whatever you want to believe, but the fact that he’s throwing harder than he has in the past is just a fact and you can’t argue it.
telemakhos - July 9, 2010
I'm certainly not arguing that it's happened.
I’m saying I don’t think it’s sustainable.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
And JJ was scouted to be a 3/4/5 type too...
hasn’t exactly played out that way has it? They can be wrong.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Keith Law
said if Minor maintains his velocity and the K-rate, his ceiling goes up to a #2.
Creek Johnson - July 8, 2010
Agree with this post. Minor is more valuable IMO than Hart.
romone_braves91 - July 8, 2010
Exactly
Minor will likely provide value for 10+ years
Hart only has 2 years left on his contract, and likely only 4-5 productive years left.
ATLandUNC - July 8, 2010
Whoa.
I think you’re getting ahead of yourself on the Minor bandwagon. 10+ years? Really? He hasn’t even proven he can pitch in the big leagues AT ALL yet. That is possible, true, but it’s also possible that he’ll get hurt, flame out, or just not be that good. Don’t assume the maximum value for prospects.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
But, we need OF help this year…not SP help 10 years from now…
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
We needed 1B help in '07
And we all saw how that turned out.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
Totally different scenarios
both in terms of the team (which is MUCH better this year than in 07) and the trade (which is definitely not going to include 5 good prospects).
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
he's just illustrating the fact that giving up good prospects can burn you
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Not when it is one or two prospects. When it is half the farm, the argument is valid.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
see Wainwright, Adam
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
Or Doyle for Smoltz (from their side)...
or Renteria for JJ and Gorkys (again, from the other side as a fail).
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Don't you think
The Tigers regret trading JJ nowadays? It was only one prospect and they had plenty of other pitching prospects, but losing one with talent can hurt.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
So, teams should never trade prospects. Got it.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
not for marginal upgrades
don’t be thick
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Teams shouldn’t trade prospects with potential like JJ and Minor for players like Hart or Renteria.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
Nope, apparently you missed it
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Sure, they might.
But they should regret trading for Renteria more. Dude had already shown he wasn’t the player in the AL that he was in the NL.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
But those were not moves made for 1 season. Those were moves made with the future in mind. This is not the same sort of situation.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
see Wainwright, Adam
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
The Wainwright trade...
…was great for us. We got JD Drew’s career year, and needed it. We made the playoffs. Can’t complain about that. The Teixeira trade sucked because he didn’t help us win.
cavebird - July 8, 2010
Well, he did – the rest of the team didn’t.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Putting up A-Rod meaningless numbers...
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
I have no idea what this means.
Bronn - July 9, 2010
I'm saying his numbers didn't win us games.
His WPA of 3.3 in a season or so of PAs was decent, but no better than Chipper was doing for us at the time, and certainly not worth two future All-Stars (the other players in the package notwithstanding.) He also had a negative clutch rating as a Brave.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
The Wainwright trade
was NOT a good trade for us.
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Why not? We were willing to give up a legit pitching prospect for a guy who had a career year (and was a MVP candidate) in RF. We made a serious run at the World Series due in large part to JD Drew.
It was a “win now” type trade, as this alleged one would be.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
And it bit us in the ass
We don’t have Wainwright and he is a stud that is helping his team get to the playoffs annually.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
It didn't "bite" anybody.
It worked out for both teams. They got their future starter (for whom they had to wait four seasons to become an impact player), we got a power-hitting OF who carried our offense.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
You’ve said in the past that the point of baseball is to win championships. In that sense, the Drew trade was even worse than the tex trade. We didn’t win either year and we actually gave up a legit ace in the drew trade as opposed to a defensively minded SS and a closer
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
But we tried to win that year. That is all we can expect a FO to do.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
To be fair
Feliz is in the same situation Wainwright was in. He’s not going to be a closer long-term, he’ll be an ace as well.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
Is feliz really being squeezed out of the rangers rotation in the same was that wainwright was? I’ve read scouting reports that were concerned that he wouldn’t be able to stick in a major league rotation.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
All I've seen is that they wanted to get him up as fast as possible.
They felt like the pen was the answer, and that he could refine his secondary pitches and stamina during the offseason.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
I'm not buying into that yet...
Feliz sounds like a closer. Not sure he has the command or secondary stuff to start.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
I don’t know about his command but his secondary stuff his pretty good
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
what secondary stuff?
Swo12bv - July 8, 2010
he throws his fastball 85% of the time. he has a curve and an slightly above avg change…most scouting reports have him as a closer based on his fastball and inability to be consistent with his secondary pitches.
Swo12bv - July 8, 2010
But his role likely has a lot to do with that.
The Rangers wanted to get him up to the bigs quick. Relieving was how they could do so. If they wanted him to start, his offspeed pitches and control would obviously be more of a focus.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
i dont disagree. but by rushing him to the bigs he wont have any time to work on his secondary stuff. He could develop that stuff into really quality pitches and be a starter, i just dont see it happening as he is concentrating on the pitches he has to get outs, his electric fastball. and isnt concentrating on his secondary stuff
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
And you think they'll be happy to settle with that his whole career?
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
i think they will be more than happy to have a dominant shut down closer for the rest of his career.
You neednt look further than Mariano. He was a starter to start his career, didn’t really have offspeed pitches (althought he could have developed them if given the chance, presumbaly). Im not saying Felix will be Rivera, bc Rivera is a generational talent, but if he is dominant there is no reason to think the Rangers wont leave him there and no take the risk of pulling a Joba and ruining him.
I know he is more valuable as a starter, but theres a saying about a bird and some bushes that i feel applies here
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
The Tigers didn't add Doyle for a playoff push?
or Renteria and his one year remaining for “1 season”?
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Having Wainwright would not have made the difference in our team those seasons.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
What seasons?
The one where we had only Hudson and Smoltz throwing well? Wainwright, while not the ace he currently is, would have been a great addition to those clubs, possibly making us playoff teams.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
Except out offense sucked those years, so we probably would not have made the playoffs still.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Our offense was good in '07
When we made the trade, many were very surprised as our offense was a strong point. KJ, Chipper, Renteria, McCann, and, to an extent, Francouer were all productive that season. We just had no pitching, and my main qualm with that trade was that we didn’t address the biggest need of all, a starter behind Hudson or Wainwright.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
Errr
I mean Hudson or Smoltz.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
well JD Drew certainly didn’t help after he left. Meanwhile Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
The difference there is that we really didn’t have too much else in terms of future arms. Now, we are absolutely stacked.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
The problem is
None of the future arms are close to the majors. Anything can happen from here to there, including on the major league level. At it’s current pace, Minor will be able to help this team next season as either the sixth starter or as a full-time starter mid-season.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
But we don’t need them to be close to the majors right now – we have 6 other guys who are all already in the majors, plus a few other guys who could be emergency stop-gaps should something drastic happen.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
The reason we’d like them closer to the majors is that they’re more of a sure thing by that point. I’d give Minor a better shot of reaching the status of #3 starter than any one of the other guys.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
You are very much in the minority in that position.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
I completely agree with you
Man I am liking your opinions more and more as I keep reading.
romone_braves91 - July 8, 2010
talking about Ben
romone_braves91 - July 8, 2010
same
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Everybody knows.
That’s what the up button is for.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Really?
He’s going to help the Braves as their sixth starter? I haven’t seen that role get too many innings for us in a while.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
And you're counting those chickens before they hatch
just cause we have a lot of potential quality arms doesn’t mean they all pan out.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
The same can be said for Minor…
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
That trade worked out for both sides.
Drew was a stud for us.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
It's the value of the prospect traded and his ceiling
Personally, I think Minor’s ceiling is much higher than I did a year ago to date, much much higher. Trading him now is not something I would agree with, depending on what we get in return of course. For most of the targets I’ve heard though, Minor would be off limits to me.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
I wouldn’t trade him for Hart
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
And in that scenario...
we at least got a sure improvement at the position, and significant improvement at that. I still hold my weak pitching side of the argument. But Hart vs. our current LF may or may not be an upgrade, and if so seems slight at best. Tex vs. Wilson/Thorman was a sure, massive upgrade.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
This, a million times over
buzzdeadwax - July 8, 2010
Can’t play defense?
Salty - July 8, 2010
This is the problem.
Mike Minor won’t fetch Cliff Lee. Or come close. Hart is about the extent of what we could get for Minor without also raiding the rest of our system.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
+1000
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
I'm sure they're considering him
because they don’t come to the same conclusions you do.
Salty - July 8, 2010
Minor would be too much for Hart.
How bout Robinson Lopez, Mike Dunn, and Jordan Schafer
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
That would be waaaay too much.
gondeee - July 8, 2010
Take out Lopez or Dunn then, but none of those guys are as good as Minor.
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
Schafer is better than Minor – if we could compare an outstanding CF to a SP…
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
I highly doubt that Schafer could get us as much in a deal as Minor could.
Lefthanded power arms will always be more valuable than high OBP OF with marginal power.
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
If only you were describing Schafer accurately…
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Mike Minor's floor is much higher than Schafer and his ceiling is marginally lower.
I think I described Schafers hitting pretty well. He is also a ++ fielder but Minor is still more valuable, imo
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
i don't think he's a ++ fielder in CF
but yea, solid D
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
he’s been described as a major league gold glover in CF.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
not what the numbers say though
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
what numbers would that be?
if you say UZR for the third of a season he played in the majors I will laugh at you.
was385 - July 8, 2010
BYB did a UZR sort of thing for MiLB
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
BYB approximating UZR in the minors is FAIL
Salty - July 8, 2010
you mean the numbers from half a season in the majors?
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
Or, for that matter, Minor.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Those odds are slipping away by the game.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Those odds are slipping away by the game.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Take out Schafer and Dunn...
I’d rather move Lopez than Minor. As much as I like RobLo, he is a ways from being ready and who knows if he ever gets there.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
If we could get Hart for just Lopez, i'd definitley do it.
But I doubt the Braves would do it. Unless Dunn turns into an elite closer, I don’t think he’d come back to hurt us too much. Solid relievers are a dime a dozen… Unless you’re the Diamondbacks
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
Braves should be Brewers
whoops
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
Dunn's not even likely to become an MLB setup man.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
How about neither of those 3. The Braves don’t need another OF who can’t play defense in CF and isn’t a great bat.
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
I agree wholeheartedly, but i'd rather give them two lottery tickets (Schafer and Lopez)
and a reliever than a guy who’s almost a sure thing to be AT LEAST a middle of the rotation starter.
J-Turn14 - July 8, 2010
you are losing your mind if you think Schafer is a lottery ticket…at minimum Schafer is gonna post a 700+ OPS making him about league average offensively..then when you throw in he is surely an above avg defender we have a valuable asset.
No one should be suprised that Schafer isnt hitting. He hasnt played ball in almost a year and just recovered from wrsit surgery…Anyone who expected him to contribute this year wasn’t being realistic. If he still is playing poorly this time next year than we can have a discussion about him
Swo12bv - July 8, 2010
schafer is currently posting a .519 OPS in AAA. I wouldn’t chalk him up to a sure thing to get a .700 ops. While it may be due to his wrist injury, a lot has happened between the time he was a top prospect for the braves and now. Let’s hope he does climb back to respectability.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
agreed
I have said it before and will say it again, wrist injuries are bad news.
Andy Braves Fan - July 9, 2010
"At minimum?"
How do you figure? He’s not even hitting in the minors. And it was his own stubbornness that had him playing so “hurt” in the first place.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
a 700 OPS is a 350 OBP and a 350 SLG…he should easily be able to reach that when healthy…he isnt hitting because he just starting playing baseball for the first time in over a year (he admittedly has been at it for a month), no one should expect someone to come back from a wrist injury and hit right away especially not a guy who is still developing.
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
I have no idea why we would want to trade a pitcher of Minor’s talents for the career year of a 28 year old player with one year left on his deal.
The kicker to me is that he represents at best, a minor upgrade over a Diaz/Hinske platoon. If he was a CF, maybe, but not for LF.
The idea that we have excess young pitching is inaccurate – you can never have too much young pitching, esp with guys like Teahran and Vizcanio far away.
desperado - July 8, 2010
His CF defense
Would almost negate anything he would bring with his bat.
ATLandUNC - July 8, 2010
I am not suggesting we put him in CF. I am saying a real CF with his hitting talent would at least make some sense.
desperado - July 8, 2010
Gotcha. My bad.
ATLandUNC - July 8, 2010
I would hate it.
I’m curious as to the rule as I’ve read and heard contrasting things lately. I’ve heard from a reliable source that a player cannot be traded until a year after he has signed, but I’ve also heard it was simply a year after he was drafted. If the former were the case, Minor wouldn’t be tradeable by the non-waiver deadline.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
He could still be a PTBNL though,
even if it is a year after signing. That happens fairly often.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
True.
I don’t like this though, I would rather trade someone further away from the minors if anyone. The fact that Minor is so close raises his value compared to the others, which is why the Brewers would want him.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
I'd be fine with trading Minor
but not for Hart. For DeJesus, maybe, or some other CF. But not Hart.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
The problem with DeJesus is that he is another left handed hitter
Who can’t hit lefties.
Career wRC+ 91
Also, Can he play CF good enough to play there?
Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela - July 8, 2010
I'm not super-high on Dejesus
but he’d be a huge upgrade over our current CF craptacular.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
I am very curious to see what Nate does when he comes back from the DL.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Not to be a pessimist
As I was high on the Braves trading for Mclouth, but I am expecting him to be as bad as ever.
He has just been awful since joining the Braves, and I highly doubt that coming off of a concussion DL stint will make him any bettter.
ATLandUNC - July 8, 2010
I have confidence in him.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
Same here...
I’m thinking a little time in the cage refinding his swing, and we got CF fixed with a damn good back of the order hitter (since Prado has taken the top spot). And that leaves Melky, Diaz, and Hinske able to work LF (since I’d assume Heyward is back before McLouth).
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Indeed.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
I am not too worried about that.
I’ll take DeJesus in a heartbeat. Good hitter, can play center decently (career UZR in center is -0.8). Yeah, he’s not as good against lefties but he isn’t hopeless, and he does have a .371 OBP against them this year. He’s a left-handed Prado. He’d make a great 1-2 combo with Prado at the top of the lineup.
cavebird - July 8, 2010
DeJesus is good but he going to be super pricey if available on the trade market due to other teams in the League that need a starting OF as well.
romone_braves91 - July 8, 2010
He's nothing special anymore...
But he’s about average defensively in center.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Same here
I don’t think of him as much of an upgrade, if any, to be worth parting with a potential quality starter. For BJ Upton, or maybe Dejesus or Willingham, yeah, but Hart just isn’t the answer to me.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
how much worse is willignham defensively than Hart…i know career wise Willingham is the better hitter, but count me among the guys who think Corey’s figured it out (I’m not sure I want to trade Minor for him, bc like has been said he’s not that big of an upgrade over what we have). Is willingham worth Minor?
Swo12bv - July 8, 2010
Hard to say.
They’ve been roughly equal, UZR-wise, but Hart’s also been in LF for years, whereas Hart has at least had a good enough arm to handle right.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
But it would also be a perfectly good reason to move him.
As we’ve seen with Kawakami, we don’t even have a spot for a quality end-of-the-rotation starter.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
This, and Ben is correct though...
as I’ve seen a couple guys drafted last year in trade rumors, and all are mentioned as having to be PTBNL if they didn’t sign until August.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
Agreed
eaheckman10 - July 8, 2010
this
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
good point, thanks for joining the discussion and adding something valauble
Swo12bv - July 8, 2010
you’re welcome!
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010
REC’D
TonyAlmeyda - July 9, 2010
Thanks Gondee
for having something for us to talk about during the off day.
romone_braves91 - July 8, 2010
he's either trolling, drumming up traffic, or demonstrating dayton moore-esque GM capabilities
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Shut up. If you don’t like it, go find another Braves blog to annoy people on.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
or if i don't like it, i'll voice my opinion
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
But don’t say stupid shit about the site’s leader.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
half of my comment was in jest
but i do think he’s wrong on a number of levels—-even if he is our “Dear Leader”
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
I like
how you directly quoted something that was never actually said
RichmondBraves - July 8, 2010
when do we drink the punch?
bpk228480 - July 8, 2010
or
posting a rumor? HOLY SHIT A WEBSITE POSTING A RUMOR SHOCKING
RichmondBraves - July 8, 2010
I think it depends on the long term goals of the team. If it’s a team that’s built to win but having a bad year (like the Braves last year or the Brewers this year) they’d prefer Minor because he’s close to ready to contribute. If it’s a truly rebuilding team, I imagine they’d be more interested in Teheran/Vizcaino/Delgado.
Also, Mike Minor can’t be traded until mid-August.
PWHjort - July 8, 2010
We discussed this above.
He can be traded, as a PTBNL.
Jacob Peterson - July 8, 2010
Screw the lefty/righty thing...
…I’d much rather have DeJesus. He can play center, and while he is better against righties, he is far from useless against lefties (.371 OBP this year, .341 career).
cavebird - July 8, 2010
would you give up minor for him?
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Yes. We have the extra pitching available. And, if I remember correctly, DeJesus has a relatively friendly team option for next year.
cavebird - July 8, 2010
To answer my own question...
…DeJesus has a $6 million club option for next year. Not bad at all. And he might be Type A if we didn’t pick it up.
cavebird - July 8, 2010
fangraphs talked about DeJesus the other day:
link
award6 - July 8, 2010
Really?
I didn’t think you could get compensation when you decline options. Although the latest rankings have Diaz as a Type B, which might make him easier to let go.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
perish the thought
this makes me sick to think that we would give anything of true value up for Corey Hart. This would just reek of desperation. Now, if we are talking bout Jose Bautista from Toronto then I would trade Minor, but not Corey freaking Hart.
JFP - July 8, 2010
Good lord, no.
Bautista is even more a career year creature than Hart. Other than this year, Bautista is not exactly been good. Give me DeJesus over both of them.
cavebird - July 8, 2010
Actually from looking at their stats, they are about the same player so good point, I wouldn’t give him up for either one. Dejesus neither for that matter. I think this team has been moving along nicely and guys will get healthy and start producing so unless someone goes down for a long period of time, then stand pat. Or if we get a great deal somewhere then do it, but if not let everyone get healthy and see where we go from there.
JFP - July 8, 2010
Where exactly does Hart fit on this roster?
We’re not benching Hinske against RHPs at this point, I don’t think. Not to give more playing time to another right handed outfielder, with a career .335 wOBA against RHPs (Hinske’s is .348). Is he platooning in RF with Jason Heyward? He’s certainly not replacing Heyward as the every day right fielder. And we already have someone to platoon with Hinske in LF. He’s not an appreciable upgrade anywhere, not worth giving up commodities that have serious trade value.
And moreover, what do we have to forfeit to give him a roster spot? We don’t have an OF anywhere with options left, when they’re all healthy. Are we just releasing Nate McLouth, losing him for nothing? That’s a ridiculous waste. Same if we wanted tod o it for Melky, who’s a reasonably solid 4th outfieler and is still only 25 years old.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
bronn and i agree on everything
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
I don't see
a problem with losing Blanco or Melky. Nothing against them personally, but the Braves have 3-4 utility OFers with Melky, Blanco, Diaz, and McLouth.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Losing Blanco isn't a big deal
And besides, he still has options. Melky, at least, has some potential because he’s only 25 and can play all the outfield positions. Giving him up for nothing is a complete waste.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
i think we'll nontender melky after this year anyway
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Honestly, I doubt that. He's going to get a job somewhere as a 4th Of, and I think he'll be here.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
I hope not
4th OFers are too easy to find, and for some reason Melky is getting expensive. He is only 25, but there is no high ceiling there.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
depends on how much he's due to make
could be around 5 million… he’s not worth that
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
While only 25
His amount of MLB PA’s means more than his age. Players get better with experience more than age, and we pretty much know what we’re getting out of Melky from here on out.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
Blanco is in a very similar situation as Melky, only he’s playing better and has less ML PAs.
RichmondBraves - July 8, 2010
I rather lose Melky. He is a fourth OF and is expensive. Blanco is just as good as Melky off the bench and cheaper
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
I am inclined to agree
based on cost alone.
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Blanco is NOT as good as Cabrera.
Three weeks of hitting do not change who he is as a pllayer.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Read everything. He is as good as Melky OFF the bench
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
Unfortunately
we don’t have the luxury of playing him off the bench…
acie4mvp - July 9, 2010
depends on what you’re looking for out of your 4th outfielder. Blanco brings much better on base skills and melky brings much better power. Blanco is faster and I’d say he’s a better defender too.
telemakhos - July 9, 2010
Would agree with this
Never been a Melky fan. And Blanco is much much cheaper.
Andy Braves Fan - July 9, 2010
Ok, get out of my head
This post contains all the split-second reactions I had to this proposed deal.
Unless the FO believes he can play center, Hart has no worth to us.
Weldon - July 8, 2010
Don’t want Hart and don’t need Hart, not at that price.
TradeAndruw - July 8, 2010
if we're trading Minor
for an OF, I’d try to get Franklin Gutierrez. If we were to go that route I’d even consider JJ for FG.
JJ, Schafer, Bethancourt, and Vizcaino for Cliff Lee and FG.
I know some won’t like it but we’d also get a couple draft picks for not re-signing Lee. Seattle should jump on that.
BlueVol03 - July 8, 2010
Jack wouldn't do it.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
why not?
you’re getting a top 20 prospect (Viz), a CF for next year (JS), a SP for now (JJ), and a good catching prospect who would probably be one of their top prospects.
BlueVol03 - July 8, 2010
Seattle is asking for a king's ransom for Lee...
…and the package you mention might be enough for Lee, but I don’t think we get Gutierrez. (At first I thought it wasn’t nearly enough, but I somehow missed JJ in it, which makes it, of course, dramatically better). I just don’t see Seattle giving up Gutierrez; he is one of the guys they want to build around.
cavebird - July 8, 2010
We really don't need Lee
It wouldn’t be that much of an upgrade for that many prospects
bravesforever16 - July 8, 2010
Minor vs. Venters
What do you guys think of Venters as a future starter?
I get the feeling Wren views him as a starter long-term if we deal Minor.
jdunk - July 8, 2010
yea, it will be interesting to see what we do with Venters
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Venters will be a reliever
Potentially the closer next season, in my opinion.
BenDuronio - July 8, 2010
I'd like to give him a chance as a starter
But there’s just no room for him to start in this organization. Too many starters.
Bronn - July 8, 2010
I wouldn't.
For years he started in the minor leagues, and he mostly sucked. And not the kind of sucked where you saw flashes of brilliance, just downright awful performances mixed with a few mediocre ones and a few merely bad ones. Not the kind of sucked you can live with, or look past. Just. Plain. Sucked.
And now he’s in major league baseball, being used as a reliever. And guess what? He doesn’t suck, like, at all. Everyone loves him, he’s already leapfrogged one of the best LOOGY’s in baseball on the depth chart and is being used like a set-up man, and his performance and results have been more or less excellent. Which means one of four things is going on.
1) He got a lot better really fast and would experience similar if partially muted success (due to the intrinsic degree of difficulty of starting vs. that of relieving) as a starter in the big leagues.
2) He’s really Bizarro Venters from Bizarro world where the minor leagues are harder than the major leagues. My analogy doesn’t make much sense, but it’s just literary filler to waste everyone’s time who bothers to read this, anyway.
3) His game is much better suited for relief than starting.
4) He’s been pitching hurt most of his pro career and he’s finally healthy.
Based on anecdotal and numerical evidence, as well as the fact that it’s overwhelmingly more likely than the others, I’d say there’s an excellent chance he’s best used as a reliever.
PWHjort - July 9, 2010
And what of his excellent run as a starter at Mississippi last year?
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
I can definitely see that for the next couple of seasons since the need is greater there. I read an old scouting report that said his change was his best pitch though which tells me he has 3 good pitches should he be a starter
jdunk - July 8, 2010
Venters and Kimbrel in the 8th and 9th? Good lord.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
I'm not uncomfortable with that
Andy Braves Fan - July 8, 2010
Would be the highest bb/9 setup-closer combo in the majors.
DogDaysofSummer - July 8, 2010
But why waste Venters there?
You can get a setup guy a lot cheaper to replace him than a starter as good as he could be.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
There really is no evidence of Venters being a quality starting pitcher
acie4mvp - July 9, 2010
He was pretty damned good last year at Mississippi.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
I think that'd be a silly move.
Why not have him impact games more significantly when we have Kimbrel in the hopper.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
I don't think he has the secondary stuff to be a starter
his breaking ball is definitely a below-average show-me pitch. He has an amazing fastball for a lefty which works great in short spurts but I think the relief role does a lot to cover up his weaknesses.
was385 - July 8, 2010
Fangraphs disagrees, strongly.
It ranks his slider (which I’ll admit he doesn’t throw much) as better than his fastball, and his change as an above-average pitch, too.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
SSS
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
To add to your point.
Fangraphs uses algorithm-classified Pitch F/X data, and unless you manually check each data point, there’s a good chance a lot of what you’re looking at is classified incorrectly. Felix Hernandez doesn’t throw a 99 MPH splitter.
(BTW, not trying to pick on you, MP. Just a good opportunity to make a point that I should have a thousand times before.)
PWHjort - July 9, 2010
I’ve noticed that with a bunch of pitchers on fangraphs they pitch type data doesnt really match up with reality
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
I understand.
Just saying that none of them are a disaster.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
I don’t think they view him as a starter. He’s a big lefty with a good fastball but lacks consistent secondary pitches to start. That said, his big fastball from the left side allows him to be a great LOOGY as well as a full inning reliever if needed.
ajones2522 - July 8, 2010
we could throw in McLouth
and pay part of the salary too. I know it’s not realistic but it could help both teams.
BlueVol03 - July 8, 2010
that’s what i was thinking. if anybody could pull this off, it’s Wren, and it would be in a way that looked good for us.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - July 8, 2010
okay if you trade for hart to play LF I assume?
Who the hell plays center?
SidGlaus - July 8, 2010
and what do we do with
melky/diaz/hinske/mclouth
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Don't see why our CF rotations would change.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Hart scares me! idk about this 1
Chipperman90 - July 8, 2010
“As for trading away Minor, I wouldn’t really shed too much of a tear. Like I said the Braves have great depth in starting pitchers in the minors, so while we would be losing our closet prospect to the Majors, he is currently blocked by all the guys signed through next season in the Majors.”
Awesome point!!!! Not to mention how Kris Medlen has been pitching this year…..and he’s only 14 yrs old!
MikeHamptonStillOwesMeMoney - July 8, 2010
Center Field
Is our only weakness as I see it right now.
The LF platoon of Hinske vs RHP and Diaz vs LHP is very good in my opinion.
But the CF platoon of Blanco, Cabrera, McLouth just won’t cut.
Pass on Corey Hart and go get a CF.
McLouth Maniac - July 8, 2010
Minor for Hart?
No. Hart would play everyday in LF. LF hasn’t been a problem this year, CF has. Minor is probably going to be the next starter to be called up, and he will be a solid number #3/#4, I wouldn’t trade that for Hart
Braves24 - July 8, 2010
Isn't there some Asian guy in the bullpen who's proven he can start ready to do it?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Just say no to Hart
I’m done with trading for outfielders out their absolute peak value. We did it with McLouth and that hasn’t turned out so well. Hart hit rock bottom last year and now he will cost a pretty penny less than a year later. We can do better for one of our top pitching prospects.
ajones2522 - July 8, 2010
I don’t know about you, but I sure would rather have Charlie Morton and Gorkys Hernandez…
/sarcasm.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
It hasn’t worked out for them either but hopefully we are smart enough not to take that chance again.
ajones2522 - July 10, 2010
Damn 350+ posts
You would have thought somebody would have been traded with that many posts.
romone_braves91 - July 8, 2010
I'm saying no
Look at it this way. We have the best record in the NL. We’re not desperate for anything like we were last year. Yeah, an upgrade in the OF would be nice, but it’s not necessary.
We’ve got Heyward coming back from the DL who I expect to be raking with his newly healed thumb. We’ve got Matt Diaz back from the DL, he’s a righty and I think he’s shown he’s over his early season slump and ready to contribute. We’ve got Infante and Hinske who can play both corner outfield positions and provide satisfactory offense. There’s also the enigma of Nate McLouth… maybe the collision with JHey made everything magically better… and then MVP. There’s also Blanco who has proved valuable over the course of the last couple of weeks…Basically what I’m saying is… NO MORE OUTFIELDERS.
So yeah, I think offensively we’re good enough to win this division, especially if Yunel breaks out in the 2nd half. I’m not worried at all. I honestly wouldn’t mess with the chemistry of this team.
BigG1392 - July 8, 2010
Diaz/Hinske, McCLouth/Melky/Blanco, and Heyward. We have six outfielders on the team right now. Blanco has played well in center for us. I like him batting 8th in the lineup until (if ever) McClouth starts to hit. I like the Diaz/Hinske platoon in left. Heyward will do his thing in right. Melky and fill in whenever and wherever in the OF.
I understand the wanting to make a trade. But do we think Hart is the answer. Will Corey Hart make that much more of a difference than one of the other 5 OFs not named Heyward to warrant trading a one of our top 5 prospects? Not to mention, what would we do with Diaz and Melky?
dkinser86 - July 8, 2010
"Newly healed thumb?"
You know that strain ain’t going away, right?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
I’m thinking World Series, not division right now. I think that OF is good enough to not hurt in the regular season, but post-season I can see the Braves getting shut down over a 5-game series pretty easily.
Broccoman - July 9, 2010
So I'm at work now and I've been thinking about Corey Hart on the Braves. My conclusion:
Hell no.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
this
beeswax - July 8, 2010
I'm with you on that
…. wonder if we could stick Werth in CF and then pocket the first rounders at the end of the year
kbertling353 - July 8, 2010
Doubt Philly would do that. And they’d probably want extra since it’s within the division trading.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010 via mobile
RIP OFF HELL NO KEEP MINOR
fizzbot - July 8, 2010
Rec'd
PWHjort - July 9, 2010
My Opinion...
I think we need a big right-handed bat to jump from being a playoff caliber team to a championship caliber team. If we can do that with Minor, then great. I’ve mainly seen him as trade bait anyways. Like gondee I wouldn’t shed too much of a tear. The market for big bats isn’t exactly overflowing at the moment though.
Someone mentioned Bautista, and I don’t even want to entertain that thought for as long as it took me to write this sentence. Hart is interesting. I’ve liked Hart in the past. I think he has talent, and I agree that he hasn’t lived up to his potential. I think he is showing it now. Do I think he will be able to keep this pace up multiple years? Not really…but like justin said, if he is able to replicate his first half for the second half of the year, I could buy into that trade. Hart isn’t the best option, but who else is available? And if he repeats his first half, he could definitely be considered that big bat.
I love Diaz. The guy plays his heart out all the time, and I think he is great for team chemistry. Hinske exploded onto the Braves scene and deserved the time he had in LF. Besides the HR the other day against the Phils, he has crashed back down to Earth. He had 4 HRs like, right off the bat (haha…get it), but he has since struggled quite a bit more, so I feel like the first part of the season may be inflating people’s opinions on how effective he has been. Let’s remember that he couldn’t keep a starting job on the Pirates successfully, because as he was played every day, he was exposed.
I am intrigued by McLouth’s return as well. I think the guy has too much talent to keep up how he has done this season. Blanco has done well since coming up. Melky can just go away. I was never a fan of getting him…granted, but he had about a week where he has done much of anything for this team…the rest has been striking out or grounding out when we need him to come through. My novel is done now…lol.
forgotten_glory - July 8, 2010
+however many you want
This post makes sense.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
How about JJ+ McLouth for Hart+ prospect then?
Broccoman - July 8, 2010
if it's not Brett Lawrie then why do it?
and the Brewers are NOT trading Brett Lawrie.
apoxonbothyourhouses - July 8, 2010
Long-term Minor > JJ. Also you get to dump McLouth’s contract, that itself has value.
Kawakami+ Melky would also be an option I’d consider along the same lines, but I doubt they’d go for that, and I’d want to keep Melky as 4th OF, it’s a role he’s good at.
Broccoman - July 8, 2010
Minor’s ceiling is probably what jurrjens is doing right now. I wouldn’t put it at a sure thing that he’ll be as good as JJ, let alone better.
telemakhos - July 8, 2010
ABSOLUTELY not.
There is literally nothing that suggests Minor will ever even be able to match Jurrjens’ performance, much less better it.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
If we're dealing with the brewers, why not go big...
Ryan Braun for Mike Minor, Robinson Lopez, Cody Johnson, Jordan Schafer, and Mike Dunn.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
do you really think thats enough…
i think you are being serious and i value you opinion, even if i disagree sometimes…but Ryan Braun is the Brewers right now…so i dont think thats gonna work…although Cody Johnson is right up the Brewers alley ( a guy who strikes out too much, doesnt walk enough and plays bad defense)
Swo12bv - July 8, 2010
Doubt it...
but then he has a no trade clause anyway right now. If we wanted Braun, and didn’t include Freeman (that way they could deal Fielder whenever a package suited them) or Teheran, I’d assume that’d be the end of the discussion, even if we could convince him to waive his no trade. But what a dream huh, having Heyward, him and McCann in the heard of the order for the next 5+ years.
Mr. Sanchez - July 8, 2010
Cody's not a "bad" defender.
He’s average.
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Meeeeh…
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
ya believe it or not…im not gonna take your word on it…most reports have him below average which is what i consider bad…he isnt like Adam Dunn horrible or anything. but he’s not good.
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
I've seen him play more than once.
He lumbers a bit, and he might do well to show a little more effort (scouts love that effort), but he makes decent reads on the ball and can get to the routine plays.
MichaelProcton - July 9, 2010
like i said from what i understand he isnt horrible, i think we are more arguing over a defintion of bad than we are arguing over his true talent level. he can probably be an avg defender in left, but that doesnt mean he is good defensively,
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
FW quote from a FanShot I posted earlier today. No trades for now......
HEYJUDE - July 8, 2010
In other words, we hope some team wants McLouth, or that McLouth bounces back.
justincredubil02 - July 8, 2010
Exactly
HEYJUDE - July 9, 2010
Minor for Hart really doesn’t do anything for me.
Jo-Jo for Hart would be a fairer trade.
UMDBHIK - July 8, 2010
lol
i would take jo-jo for like, a baseball…
forgotten_glory - July 8, 2010
For WHOM?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
For WHOM?
MichaelProcton - July 8, 2010
Mike Minor looks like an elf
I’m surprised this hasn’t been mentioned in the 500 comments yet.
Scott Coleman - July 8, 2010
when i checked the thread had 90 new comments…i think 75 where of the Proctor Bomb variety
Swo12bv - July 9, 2010
It brings me great pain realizing that I’ve now read every comment in this thread up to this point.
telemakhos - July 9, 2010
heh, this
award6 - July 9, 2010
Would love to get an outfielder from Baltimore
But that’s probably not happening with how nice Markakis’ contract is and Jones is under arb for a few more years. At least not for just Minor that is. Is there a combo of prospects we could interest Baltimore with to get one of them? I only assume they’re looking to rebuild…could be wrong.
Felix Pie? Meh, he looks like, at best, a .750 OPS outfielder. I don’t feel comfortable translating fielding stats, but is Pie a decent defender? Looks like he has played some CF.
I remember throwing out the idea of getting McLouth a few years ago (not here) and then shooting it down myself. Didn’t think Pirates would want to part with him, but I guess they knew about McCutchen before I did. Funny how that worked out, kinda.
If the Braves do make a trade, it’ll be interesting to say the least. I trust FW right now.
award6 - July 9, 2010
Come to think of it, I’d offer KK+Dunn for Hart, but not Minor
Broccoman - July 9, 2010
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