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Talking Chop

Braves at Phillies Series Preview

The Braves are coming off of a 6-3 home-stand and head right into one of their bigger road trips to date. They will play three against the Phillies followed by three against the Mets, so they have a great chance to extend their division lead before the All-Star break. The Phillies have been reeling as late, going 4-6 in their past 10 and losing three-of-four to the woeful Pirates. The Braves are just 18-24 on the road, and both the Mets and Phillies have records over .500 at home, so the Braves will have to step their game as they close out the first half.

Pitching Matchups:

Monday 7:05 EST: Derek Lowe (9-6, 4.53 ERA, 4.25 xFIP) vs. Roy Halladay (9-7, 2.42, 3.04 xFIP)

Both Derek Lowe and Roy Halladay will be going for their tenth win tonight. While Lowe has seen his ERA decrease in each month of the season, Halladay has seen his increase. Despite giving up more runs in June than any other month, the Phillies' ace was still able to strike out 42 batters and walk just five in 44 innings pitched. Halladay currently has a 21.6 pRAA, good for third in the National League behind only Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson. In contrast, Lowe's pRAA sits at -2.5. But, in 17 games vs. the Phillies in his career, Lowe has pitched rather well. Against the Phillies, Lowe has a 2.67 K/BB ratio, a 3.26 ERA, and has limited the Phillies to a .662 OPS against. Still, the pitching matchup obviously favors the Phillies. However, with an injured lineup, the Braves can definitely win this game.

Tuesday: 7:05 EST: Jair Jurrjens (1-3, 5.59 ERA, 5.16 xFIP) vs. Cole Hamels (6-7, 4.07 ERA, 3.82 xFIP)

This will be Jair's second start since returning from the DL and he hopes to follow up his best start of the year with another solid start against the rival Phillies. In eight games against the Phillies in his career, Jair has a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Hamels hasn't quite had the same level of success against the Braves. In his 16 starts against Atlanta, Cole has a 4.28 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but also has an 8-5 record. The Braves have 13 home runs against Cole and hope to tack on a few more to give Jurrjens some run support on Tuesday night.

Wednesday: 7:05 EST: Kris Medlen (5-1, 3.01 ERA, 3.79 xFIP) vs. Jamie Moyer (9-7, 4.13 ERA, 4.41 xFIP)

The last time the Braves faced Moyer, he threw a complete game shutout and allowed just two hits and no walks in the contest. Hopefully, the Braves can put that behind them and jump on the elder lefty who has had four straight impressive outings. Over his past four games, Moyer has a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings. Medlen has been impressive over his last four as well, pitching to a 2.64 ERA in  27.1 innings and has secured his spot in the starting rotation. Medlen has given up his fair share of homers this year though -- 9 in just 80.2 innings -- and Citizens Bank Ballpark is a noted home run haven. It will be important for Kris to keep the ball down and be careful against the big hitters like Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth

Star-divide

All-Stars a plenty:

There are eight All-Stars between the two teams and potentially nine if Billy Wagner gets voted in via the final vote. Along with having three All-Stars in Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, and the injured Chase Utley, the NL manager is the Phillie's Charlie Manuel. Manuel himself selected Tim Hudson and Omar Infante to the roster. After many scrutinized the Infante decision, it has been noted that the MLB asked Manuel to pick a multi-positional player and he saw Infante as the deserving member. The pick becomes much more sensible with this information available.

Injured stars:

Elected All-Stars Chase Utley and Jason Heyward are both on the DL and will miss the series. Former All-Stars Placido Polanco and Nate McLouth are on the shelf as well. Polanco and Utley aren't expected to be back anytime soon, whereas McLouth may be headed for a rehab stint and Heyward will most likely resume baseball activities this weekend. Despite McLouth's poor season to date, he still has the potential to help this team in the second half.

Poll
Who Will Be the Braves most valuable hitter of the Series?
Chipper Jones
120 votes
Brian McCann
50 votes
Martin Prado
199 votes
MVP
37 votes
Omar Infante
26 votes
Troy Glaus
52 votes
Other
9 votes

493 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  40 comments

Comments

Worried

I can’t believe Philadelphia is only -200 tonight, Halladay versus Lowe should be more like -10,000.

He's

a proven winner. That makes up for it.

but

lowe has the same number of wins and fewer losses!!!! he must be better!!!!!!!!!!!

Nooooo, I wanted to say this.

Big Series

Can’t win the division in July, but this is the perfect opportunity to kick an opponent while he’s down. A sweep here can really go a long ways in ensuring Philly won’t be in the playoffs.

In the past,

when the roles were reversed (the Phillies sat in first while we were in third fives games back), it always seemed as if these were the series that we lost 2-1 or 3-0. Let’s sweep and send these idiots packing eight games back.

Actually,

a few of our better players are injured as well. They have the same opportunity to kick us while we are down. I just hope they don’t succeed.

Lineup

Prado
Infante
Chipper
McCann
Hinske
Melky
Esco
Blanco
Lowe

Yeah, DLowe is gonna need to be on his game if we’re going to win tonight.

Infante

with a 2-HR game tonight.

And then Heyward will magically come off the DL and hit a 5 run walk off homer. In a road game.

Bobby needs to switch Esco and MVP. Is Troy still hurting?

Yep. I can only imagine a cortisone shot in your knee really hurting.

When did he get a cortisone shot?
3 in a row for Glaus, something's up

Looking forward to Wednesday’s game more than any of them. Would love to see the Braves mash the old man as payback to his “dominate” performance the last time they met. (No disrespect toward the elderly intended.)

And

just why not?

i think mccann is due for a breakout series

i think he puts the braves on his back as we win at least 2 out of 3

I hope everyone puts up crazy offensive numbers this series. We been slumping a bit on offensive and now would be a great to break out of it

I feel

our recent offensive slump is due to injured players being on the bench. That said, our healthy players have got to pick up the slack and get our pitchers some runs to work with.

McCann hits well against the Phillies, especially in their bandbox

This will be a very tough series.

Hopefully we can at take 2/3; we may be suffering from some key injuries, but the Phillies are even worse off. Halladay’s recent “struggles” (for him) give me hope that we might be able to take the opener.

The 2 lefties in the last 2 games mean that Matt Diaz is going to have to have a big series if we are going to win it. I hope Glaus is healthy enough to play in those 2 games, too, because we’ll need all the right-handed hitters we can find.

If what you say re: Selig and Manuel is true, then that pushes some of the blame from Charlie on to Bud. I have a hard time believing that, though, because Girardi didn’t pick a utility guy. It sounds like a post-facto explanation for a gaffe that had no logical reasoning behind it.

Ty Wigginton is that guy for the AL. He’s played three different positions this season as well as DH and he is listed as simply an infielder, just as Infante is.

yeah

I see that now… I thought Wigginton was just the best of a crappy bunch of Orioles, but Markakis has actually had a good year (so has Scott, but he’s hurt), so he should have made it over Ty for sure.

Okay, so I’m willing to blame Bud as well as Manuel, now. Clearly, neither Wigginton nor Infante should be on the team. Also, if this was planned, why did they not announce it beforehand? Or at least on the studio announcement show?

If there’s a utility guy, why not a LOOGY? How about a pinch-runner, just in case? A bunting specialist? A few defensive replacements? If this is true, I sure don’t understand the logic behind it.

There are a lot of aspects of the all star game that I don’t understand. But the league definitely could have saved everyone a lot of arguments by announcing this ahead of time like you said.

I think

They’re deathly afraid of being caught short like they were in the tie game. A Tony Phillips type would be far more valuable in the effort to avoid that outcome than any other specialist player.

Those was Jayson Stark's feelings as well

Apparently everyone knew about this and forgot to tell the fans, kind of silly.

I'm going tuesday

I hope he’s healthy enough to play too

pRAA

Don’t think I’ve seen that one before.

Just another statistic that tells us

Halladay is better than Lowe. I would’ve stuck to one more likely to be recognized by you folks, but they all tell the same story, really.

The “p” refers to the site that compiles the statistic… I don’t know which, but I’m assuming it’s Baseball Prospectus. The “RAA” is Runs Above Average, which can also be used as one of the components of WAR. It’s just a measure of how many runs a pitcher saves compared to the average of all pitchers. So Halladay is 20+ runs better than an average pitcher so far, and Lowe is a couple runs below average.

“I would’ve stuck to one more likely to be recognized by you folks, but they all tell the same story, really.”

So Bud Selig told you to use pRAA?

Sneak it in

And maybe eventually it shall stick. http://www.statcorner.com has the low down on it and every player the system down to low-A. It’s amazing.

Go Braves!!!!

A Series Win against the Fish was welcome news as I sit here tying to catch up at the airport on my way back home. I’ve been in Pittsburgh and the city is buzzing about the good play vs. the Phillies this weekend. I didn’t get to catch a game, but it was nice to hear they were helping us out.

I’ll miss tonight’s game, but will be able to see games again starting Tuesday, which means I’ll get to see us win the game(s) necessary against the Phils and take another series before doing the same in NY. Sweeps would just be a bonus – but I hope we do some serious work against the division this week.

Chippahhh

Was the best hitter tonight. Mac did good too. I love Chipper Jones.
And Jason Heyward. But Mets fans don’t hate Heyward. Science says you can’t. ITS A FACT

Give it time. 8 or 43 walkoffs later, they’ll hate him just the same.

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