The season Tim Hudson has been having is quite odd. Most of us at Talking Chop have discussed, as have the guys over at Fangraphs. An expected regression has been noted by many saber slanted writers. I have agreed, but I also added the regression could be minimal if he started to throw the ball better, meaning striking out more batters and walking less.
Here’s a look at Hudson’s stats on June 1, his stats after June 1, and his career numbers.
June 1 Since June 1 Career
IP 64.1 78.1 2,194.2
ERA 2.24 2.53 3.42
FIP 4.39 3.99 3.82
xFIP 4.52 4.36 3.82
GB% 67.3% 58.9% 49.2%
LD% 10.6% 13.0% 18.0%
K/9 3.78 5.40 6.02
BB/9 3.50 2.76 2.79
BABIP .222 .252 .286
As you can see, his stats are starting to normalize somewhat. His ERA has begun to rise while his FIP and xFIP are coming back down closer to his career numbers. His strikeout rate is getting better as is his walk rate, but his BABIP and ground ball percentage are still abnormally low in comparison to his career, and in comparison to most of the league. Hudson leads the N.L. in both GB% and BABIP.
Now, the task is to find out why hitters are hitting so many ground balls and not getting hits when they make contact.
The first thing that pops out is that batters have made contact on 71.6% of swings outside of the zone. For Hudson’s career, hitters have made contact on just 53.1% of swings taken on balls outside of the strike zone, the highest mark before this season being 54.1% in 2007, not including the 42.1 inning season last year.
Most of the time, if hitters are making contact on balls outside of the strike zone, the balls aren’t going to be hit very hard. Forcing batters to make weak contact on balls outside of the zone will usually raise a pitcher’s ground ball ratio and lower their BABIP, since BABIP does not take into account how hard balls are hit.
I have reason to believe this is the main reason for Hudson’s continued success on balls in play this season. 45.5% of Hudson’s pitches have been in the strike zone, down dramatically from his career 52.1% mark. Prior to this season, he had never thrown less than half of his pitches for strikes.
Hudson has, purposely or not, gotten batters to swing and make weak contact with more balls by throwing fewer strikes. Whether this is a trend that can, or will, be continued over a full season is yet to be seen, but it is a trend that has certainly benefited his results so far this year.
The statistics used were taken from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.
0 recs | 26 comments
Hrmmm....
I would’ve sworn I read something very similar to this a month or two ago. I don’t think it was this detailed, though. So, good job. Besides, we can’t have enough praise for Tim Hudson.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - July 29, 2010
Huddy has been such an asset to our team. I'm glad he's a Brave.
Posted this on the game recap.
Joe said last night: When Huddy walked his only batter (Zimmerman) that was the ONLY time all night that his pitch count went to 3 balls. Amazing.
I say, let’s KEEP him. :-)
NCChopper - July 29, 2010
You also seem to have stumbled upon why his walks rates have been a bit high. If he’s inducing more groundball outs by throwing fewer strikes, then the GB% and BB% are intrinsically tied together. I think we need to remember that next time we’re complaining about him walking 3-6 batters per game. On the other hand, he only walked 1 last night. That suggests something else, altogether. To throw so many pitches outside the strike zone, and yet walk only a single batter, he must be doing a good job of deceiving hitters into thinking his pitches are strikes. Is it due to pinpoint accuracy around a specific location just off the plate, or is it late movement on his pitches?
EricGreggWasPaidOff - July 29, 2010
That was the Tom Glavine recipe for success: Work the outside black of the plate, or just outside the strike zone. Fool batters into making weak contact and trust the defense behind you to make the play. Like real estate, it was all about location, location, location.
Concerning Tim Hudson, I think that is playing a big part in his success this year except that he is working the knees with the sinker more so than the outside like Glavine did. So it’s a great combination of location and movement that is paying of so well for him in ’10.
Chopaholic - July 29, 2010
Makes total sense to me.
I think what’s going on that explains all of this (more balls, more swings at balls, more ground balls) is that his sinker has been sinking a ton this year. It’s getting so much sink that it starts out at the knees but ends up a ball. But since it starts at the knees, it looks like a strike, so lots of batters are swinging at it, and of course not making good contact.
I think Tim has been pitching differently the past few starts because his sinker hasn’t been as good (his GB rates have been lower—still good, but lower). Perhaps as he’s warming up he senses that his sinker isn’t great today, so he’ll pitch differently and throw more strikes to compensate. Which is how you end up with starts like last night, with 7 Ks and 1 BB. But regardless of what method of pitching he’s used, he’s been awesome this year.
Jacob Peterson - July 29, 2010
this
It was SUPER fun to watch Huddy get a million Ks and have the sinker not on command like usual. It was like Huddy flipped a schizo switch or something, and started hurling like a big man fastball pitcher or something.
Which, begs the question…. IF Huddy can seemingly “turn on” this other style, why does he not do this as a part of his repertoire?
traphicg - July 30, 2010
Here are some quotes by Dunn and Zimmerman on Hudson by DOB blog (in case you didn't read it)
Dunn
Zimmerman
romone_braves91 - July 29, 2010
lazy journalism
1 half-ass chart? You sir, are no pacgnosis.
Rhyno18 - July 29, 2010
Correct Answer:
Because he is awesome.
yondaime4 - July 29, 2010
Why has Tim Hudson avoided regression?...
because advanced stats, on their lonesome, are no better indicator of a pitcher’s talent than any other stat, including those scoffed at by the algebra inclined. Whether FIP or xFIP or tERA or SIERRA or whatever other sabre stat is used, they will never give a complete value of a P. They need to do more tinkering with their variables I guess.
Mr. Sanchez - July 29, 2010
+1
get swoll yunel - July 29, 2010
They’re definitely a better indicator, but no stat is a perfect portrayal.
BenDuronio - July 29, 2010
Damn it
You stole what i was gonna say LOL
Erihury - July 29, 2010
I didn't see how bad the numbers looked on the page
Edited, hope it’s a bit more clear now.
BenDuronio - July 29, 2010
I think all you need to do is look at the LD % and GB%, this year he is getting 6% more ground balls and 6% less line drives, that is going to lead to an abnormally low BABIP and results that are better than his peripherals. His LOB this season is almost 10% higher than his career rate and I think that is mainly due to high GB rate and as a result, he induces a ton of GIDPs.
MatM - July 29, 2010
Well, the point of the article was to try and explain why those numbers are that way. I’ve noticed the line drive and ground ball numbers all season, and so have some others here, but the mission was to figure out how he is accomplishing this.
BenDuronio - July 29, 2010
One thing that would be interesting to check and I dont know where to find this infomration….what is his BABiP on groundballs this year and what it looks like compared to his career. that would give dsome indication of the contact being made….just like not all batted ball are equal…not all groundballs are created equal…so I feel like he might be getting weaker contact or lucky on his groundballs and that would explain his odd season (which consequently has been really fun to watch)
Swo12bv - July 29, 2010
That was actually checked out already this week on the Fangraphs article I linked, so I decided to leave it out as I didn’t want it to seem like I was stealing their content nor ideas.
BenDuronio - July 29, 2010
Knock Knock
Braves fan “Who is it?”
Phillies
Braves fan “O SHIT”
sowhatifitisasportste - July 29, 2010
/flagged as a troll
but if you want to actually have an intelligent discussion you are more than welcomed to stay around and express rational opinions….such as the Braves aren’t playing great the last couple series and the Phillies have been…I’m willing to acknowledge that so long as you are willing to acknowledge your bullpen is atrocious and your rotation is lacking at the back end (severely).
Swo12bv - July 29, 2010
As a Phillies fan I’ve watched the team go from 10 games over .500 in early may to being shut in somthing like 7 games. Add the fact that the Braves have been rolling with what will probalby be the ROY. With Moyer going to the DL it’s taking your #3 pitcher and lowering his ERA by 1. As of right now the Braves are Leading the NL East and everyone has them in the sights.
On a side not what do you want for Heyward’s first male born?
sowhatifitisasportste - July 29, 2010
For Heyward’s first male born, we’ll take Werth and Utley.
justincredubil02 - July 30, 2010
Utley’s off the table, howbout Werth and Valdez?
sowhatifitisasportste - July 30, 2010
Werth and the Rook?
justincredubil02 - July 30, 2010
Why his male born?
I’m confident Heyward’s daughter would be better than most MLB players.
Pavy848 - July 30, 2010
Tim Hudson laughs at regression.
His baldness makes him very aerodynamic.
UMDBHIK - July 30, 2010
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