Arg. I don't know if I am in a good state to comment intelligently about this game. After all the Braves went through to finally get a lead--a monstrous 455-foot homer by Martin Prado, a huge 3-run homer by Brian McCann to tie it at 4, a McCann single to tie it at 5, and Matt Diaz taking one for the team to get the 6-5 lead--to lose this game really hurts.
I am not among those who will be screaming that something is wrong with Billy Wagner now that he's blown 2 straight saves, but damn, I wish he could've picked a different game to lose his control in. Coming in with the 6-5 lead, he immediately walked leadoff hitter Wes Helms, then after a flyout, gave up a single to Gaby Sanchez (who went to second when the throw to third got away a bit). With first base open, Bobby Cox elected to walk Hanley Ramirez... which seemed to work when Wagner struck out Dan Uggla on a nasty 3-2 slider for the second out. Unfortunately, Wagner let a fastball get away from him to the next batter, resulting in a passed ball (Mac probably should have caught it, but it was waaaayyy off the mark) and the Marlins tying the score.
At that point, Braves fans everywhere started cursing and throwing things at their TVs. Any lingering hope of pulling out a win in extra innings was extinguished when Wagner promptly gave up a hit to Donnie Murphy, allowing the winning run to walk home from third. Braves lose.
This game was not really decided by the starters, but I'll recap them anyway. Derek Lowe pitched okay through 5 innings, giving up only a 2-run homer to Dan Uggla. He then tired in the 6th, eventually giving up 2 more runs on a Bryan Petersen single. He probably should have been pulled before that hit, but oh well. His final line was 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 HR, 6 K, 5 BB (2 in the 6th), and a -0.141 WPA.
Marlins starter Alex Sanabia gave up a lot of baserunners but mostly held the Braves in check despite that. He gave up only Prado's monster solo shot as far as runs go. All of those runners did mean a lot of pitches, though. Sanabia only went 4.1 innings, giving up 7 hits, 3 walks, and the 1 run. He struck out 3 and had a 0.105 WPA.
In the Braves' half of the 7th, Burke Badenhop got the first two hitters but then walked Jason Heyward. Taylor Tankersley then came on and walked Chipper Jones. That set up McCann's excellent game-tying homer. Of course, as soon as the Braves tied it, Peter Moylan gave up a homer to Gaby Sanchez to make it 5-4, Marlins.
In the Braves' 9th, Martin Prado led off with a double off of Jose Veras (pitching because normal closer Leo Nunez was unavailable after pitching in 3 straight games). Prado had 8 total bases in the game, which is rad. After Heyward lined out, Chipper walked, McCann singled in the tying run, and Glaus walked. Veras then hit Diaz on the pinky finger to bring in what should have been the winning run (Diaz seemed OK though). That set up Wagner's epic breakdown.
In lieu of an awards section, everyone just go look at the FanGraphs page for this game. The graph, and some of the players' WPAs, are just crazy. Five hitters had WPAs over 0.300 and three pitchers had WPAs less than -0.300 (two less than -0.600). McCann and Prado combined for nearly 0.900 WPA (in other words, about 87% of a win added to the Braves' chances)... and the Braves LOST.
Ugh, at least we can still win the series...
0 recs | 65 comments
this one makes me want to swallow a knife
ATLBRVS_19 - July 23, 2010
THIS ONE hurts. =[
Lets get em tomorrow I guess. =/ like you said, just the fact that we went through so much to take the lead.. to have it taken away. I need some support from fellow fans, this sucks.
truheelzfan44 - July 23, 2010
Even with this loss..
Still in love with the braves. We keep fighting and fighting. McCann is on his way to a monstrous second half. Wagner will come around. Though a couple of days rest will do him good.
GwinnettBraves - July 23, 2010 via mobile
Derek Lowe sucks. I strongly dislike his existence in the rotation.
McLouth Maniac - July 23, 2010
This
This
This
THIS!
Sam Jethroe - July 24, 2010
D. Lowe isn’t the one who lost the game. I’d blame Nate McLouth, Peter Moylan and Billy Wagner more than I’d blame D. Lowe.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - July 24, 2010
He didn't lose the game
But he made it damned hard to win.
Sam Jethroe - July 24, 2010
right
because he went into the 6th inning with basically 100 pitches and his manager left him in
drumzalicious - July 24, 2010
If he’d recorded 1 more out and given up 1 less run, it would’ve been a QS. I wouldn’t call that making it “damned hard to win”. In fact, I’d call that a fairly average pitching performance.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - July 24, 2010
He put them in a 2-0 hole in the bottom of the first. The 6th was set up by 2 walks before he gave up the run scoring hit. He threw too many pitches and was out before the 7th, yet again. This might technically qualify as “average” but personally, I get tired of seeing him put them in bad situation after bad situation. They spent basically the whole game working their guts out just to catch up.
Yes, the game got away from them long after he had gone but he’s not paid to almost have quality starts and be in the barn a little over halfway through the game in start after start. Plenty of blame to go around and while this is a shitty loss, it’s just one and nothing to get too concerned over. But I have a hard time believing I’m alone in not wanting to see this guy on the mound in any important siuation for this team.
Sam Jethroe - July 24, 2010
A) What innings the runs were given up in matters not – only the number of runs given up.
B) 5.2 IP is about 2/3rds of the game….not “a little over halfway through the game” (that would be 4.2 IP).
C) Arguing how effective he was is a completely different argument from how effective he is versus how much he’s paid. Choose your words more carefully in the future.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - July 24, 2010
Do you really think that a pitcher immediately giving up 2 runs and putting the team behind is as benign as giving up (say) single runs in the 2nd and then the 4th innings? They have equal psychological impact?
You’re really splitting hairs over the validity of the phrase “a little over halfway.” Let me put it like this: in his last 5 starts, he’s failed to get through 6 full innings 4 times. In 21 starts this season, he’s lasted 7 or more 6 times. He has quality starts (a measure I endorse, with mild reservations) in 9 of those 21.
And, just for the record, I wasn’t carping about him making top of the rotation money, I really don’t care about that and I remember the situation before he was signed. I applauded the move. I was simply stating that he should be expected to do rather better than what he’s done so far this season and most of last.
Lastly, you and I are often on the same page and I usually look forward to your posts. I don’t know why you’ve chosen to take this rather dismissive tone with me, but I would appreciate it if you didn’t do it again.
Sam Jethroe - July 24, 2010
Pertaining to the basis of your argument, it certainly seemed like you were arguing how effective he should be pitching based on how much he’s paid when you said:
And assuming your point stands about the psychological impact of giving up those 2 runs starting out, it really has nothing to do with it being the 1st inning. It just has to do with which team gets on the scoreboard first. One pitcher, from one side or the other, is always going to give up the first runs. Like it or not, it’s probably going to be a Braves’ pitcher about half the time.
Also, for the record, my tone was not meant to be dismissive. I just think you’re unfairly lampooning Derek Lowe when other guys on the team were more to blame for the loss last night. Hell, he’s even pitched much better lately. At least save your hatred for the games when he gives up 8 runs – then again, he sometimes still gets the W in those types of games.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - July 24, 2010
As I wrote, he’s not chiefly to blame for last night’s loss but he contributed. He’s a major leaguer and a member of what is rightly considered to be one of the better stafffs in the league. He hasn’t been holding up his end of that burden. I think the stats bear that out.
I have little or no confidence in his work. Even when he starts off well, he’s going to run out of gas, sooner rather than later, which puts more than necessary strain on the bullpen.
Sam Jethroe - July 24, 2010
Nice to see this thread isn't being ripped to shreds
We’ve lost 2 out of 3! Oh no!
Scott Coleman - July 24, 2010
Tough Lost.
I need to sleep on this one and hope we can get the W tomorrow. We still have a 6 game lead over Phils. Go Braves!
romone_braves91 - July 24, 2010
I had a bad feeling about this game the minute he walked Wes Helms!! I can’t watch or speak beaseball today until the first pitch of Saturday’s game. I am disgusted but no panicking, yet
AlRoBraves95 - July 24, 2010
Tomorrow’s another day. Go Braves!
The Prado HR: Was it announced as 455 feet?
OMG! What a blast!
On the slow mo re-play, it looked to me like it actually flew directly over the top of the fair pole, clearing it by maybe 10 or 15 feet. Or it might have been an optical illusion – hard to say.
Wondering if others noted that?
fandave - July 24, 2010
And now, I'm looking forward to Mississippi's box score every night
Funny how I could pretty much care less a few nights ago (nothing to the Miss. players, but there really wasn’t much potential there) to wanting to check it before the Recap even goes up.
Scott Coleman - July 24, 2010
Phillies win two in a row. Lead down to six games.
TIME TO PANIC!!!!!
TonyAlmeyda - July 24, 2010
Kelly Johnson hit a cycle today. Frank Wren you suck letting go KJ, Prado has never had a cycle wow, way to go.
Kobe:The Legend - July 24, 2010
i honestly cannot tell if you are sarcastic or not
atl192485 - July 24, 2010
come on man, i'm obviously sarcastic.
Kobe:The Legend - July 24, 2010
to be fair, we should have kept KJ
possibly put him at LF w/ Diaz. he was too valuable to just let walk away.
kbertling353 - July 24, 2010
WTF, Kobe: The Legend
Prado made the All Star game you idiot. F a cycle. Who cares. D-Backs in last place. Fly a kite when you see lightning.
AlRoBraves95 - July 24, 2010
we should won 4 in a row
Padres should be a sweep and now this
joshant - July 24, 2010
Fuck you Wags.
TradeAndruw - July 24, 2010
Feel better now?
Pavy848 - July 24, 2010
no
TradeAndruw - July 24, 2010
Whether we should’ve won or not—we didn’t. This game was exciting, but it ended on a sad note. I’m not one to be depressed, especially with such a large lead in the NL. The Braves have margin for error, and it’s time for them to be working out kinks in the team, lineup, etc. Negativity may be a response commonly associated with losses (even bad ones such as this) but nonetheless many Braves are hitting well (as shown during the game).
Things are looking good for the Bravos since the ASG, and things will continue to do so in my opinion. This was just an unfortunate loss due to a few players—not bad playing by the team as a whole That is what makes the difference.
Joseph_C - July 24, 2010
Agreed.
I just would like (at least some of) those few players sent to the shed.
Sam Jethroe - July 24, 2010
DeJesus out for the year.
Hart left his game tonight with a wrist injury.
Without saying whether I am for or against this move, does anyone else think Cody Ross is damn near a lock to be in an Atlanta uni by next Sunday?
J-Freak - July 24, 2010 via mobile
Ross and Frenchie
I never have warmed up to Ross, but he may be the best out there. Today the AJC is saying that Frenchie is in the trade mix. Noooooooooooooooooo!
Buddy Holly - July 24, 2010
No freakin way that happens.
justincredubil02 - July 24, 2010
Word is that we are not as interested in him now…according to MLBtraderumors.
justincredubil02 - July 24, 2010
Yeah, I read that not long after posting that. But lets look at all the pieces here. FW has made it well known he wants outfield help, preferably in center, should Nate not come back. Nate has shown no signs of life. DeJesus is out. Hart, despite the fact he can’t play center in the first place, may also be down for awhile, though we won’t know for sure for a day or two. That leaves Ross, who would have conceivably cost less with those two also on the market. However, Ross’ value has to go up a bit with all the choices above him gone. All that to say, you think maybe FW is feigning declined interest in order to keep the price from increasing, gambling that no one else swoops in for him, and still planning to make a move for him if Nate stays a dead for a couple more days? We know he wants a piece, and there’s not much else out there unless you want to try to snag Crisp from Beane without being boondoggled into giving up a good prospect.
This is all purely speculation. I just get the sense that either this is gonna happen or we’re about to wave bye-bye to someone like Minor or Delgado in a move for a much more significant piece That hasn’t even been in rumors yet. Stranger things have happened.
J-Freak - July 24, 2010 via mobile
We should get McCutchen (I obviously don't have any idea what would be required).
but man, those Pirates would proably take him for some beans. They never seem to do well in trades.
EyePod - July 24, 2010
The Pirates aren't as dumb as some people make them out to be.
Gotta remember that they had nothing to work with for trades to begin with and their minor system is actually starting to produce real talent.
But the old Pirate system was awfully stupid.
Pavy848 - July 24, 2010
Maybe they want Mclouth back? =_=
EyePod - July 24, 2010
It is unlikely anyone wants just Nate. The Pirates outfield is pretty set the next few years too so you can wipe that off the idea plate.
Pavy848 - July 24, 2010
Was Alex Gonzalez available when we traded for him?
Just because the media is reporting (or not reporting) things, doesn’t mean that those things are our only options.
justincredubil02 - July 24, 2010
I am in complete agreement. He’s going to do something, but we’ll never in a million years be able to guess what.
J-Freak - July 24, 2010 via mobile
Exactly
Joseph_C - July 24, 2010
The way Gonzalez has been hitting, it’s a shame he has such a small chance of scoring with McOut and the pitcher following him in the line up. I’m really looking forward to the day we trade McLouth, even if we have to pay 75% of his salary, start Cabrera in CF and only bring back Blanco. That scenario would save us money and win us more games. Nate seems like a great guy, the team really likes him, but he is not getting the hits to fall…ever. I don’t know what happened to him, but we cannot afford a sub .180 average in CF during a playoff run.
bighop - July 24, 2010
Agreed we need to get rid of mclouth i dont know what bobby see’s in him like i said he cant evan hit a wall. We will bounce back on sat meds is on the mound and are bats are comming alive GO BRAVES!!!!
cali viking - July 24, 2010
McLouth should have a week to see if he can turn it around before putting him on waivers.
If someone claims, let them have him. (optimistic) If not, trade him for spare parts or Dale Murphy’s bubble gum card.
Broccoman - July 24, 2010
McLouth won’t turn around any more than Frenchy. Sorry—but it’s true.
Joseph_C - July 24, 2010
how can you say that?
Braves24 - July 24, 2010
because Pirates McLouth is to Jekyll, as Braves McLouth is to Hyde
and Cabrera comes to play. sticking McLouth, with is lame excuse for an arm, in CF isn’t cool. Send him and KK to the Royals for an injured DeJesus.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - July 24, 2010
*his
damn it
Chief Noc-A-Homa - July 24, 2010
The plus side
is Heyward had ANOTHER good game. Shows that his thumb is back to normal which is good for our offense going forward.
Speaking of our offense it looks as though we will be needing them to show up a little more since our bullpen has decided to start imploding.
drumzalicious - July 24, 2010
dude, our bullpen is not imploding
wags has had two bad outings. that’s it. pretty much everyone else is still going strong.
kbertling353 - July 24, 2010
and wags is fine too
kbertling353 - July 24, 2010
Imploding = 2 bad games but AMAZING otherwise. What have you done for me lately?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9uizdKZAGE
Janet Jackson – What Have You Done For Me Lately
EyePod - July 24, 2010
This game was horseshit....
I said I didn’t want to lose 4 times!!!!!
leedawg - July 24, 2010
i'd love
To see them sign smoltz give him a month to get ready and have him and billy back there in the 9th .
~~banditwolf~~ - July 24, 2010
Smoltz hasn’t pitched in nearly a year – he would need WAY more than a month to get ready.
justincredubil02 - July 24, 2010
Wow I'm glad I went to bed thinking they had already lost when it was in the 7th... Fuck though, I wish wags didn't blow this one.
At least he’s been around the block and will be able to come back from this.
EyePod - July 24, 2010
The loss sucks, sure.
But I didn’t expect them to win/come back like that to begin with. I’m ecstatic to see they still have the fighting spirit the last few games even though they could’ve easily eased up because of their record. No Met streak is going to happen to us.
Pavy848 - July 24, 2010
DAMN STRAIGHT.
I’m not worried about Wags, but am I the only person who gets an uncomfortable feeling every time Moylan comes into the game?
EyePod - July 24, 2010
Dave must not be doing his job.
Wags has been sooo money that he’s allowed to have a few bad games. Better now than at the end of the season!
Pavy848 - July 24, 2010
hate the freakin Marlins
they’ve been a thorn in the side for years now.
Mr. Sanchez - July 24, 2010
Cabrera >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>McLouth
Chief Noc-A-Homa - July 24, 2010
What Wren needs to do...
1. Somehow find a way to get rid of McLouth and get Blanco up here. Blanco deserves to be in the majors.
2. Stick Cabrera in CF. He is perfectly find there. Decent rage, excellent arm, good hitter for the 8 hole.
3. Get Josh WIllingham. I like Diaz, and he’s hot right now, but I don’t know if he’ll keep it up. Willingham will fit perfectly in the clubhouse. No offense to Hinske, but he is showing what he is. He was playing way above his head in May/June.
You have a lineup like this.
2B Prado
RF Heyward
3B Jones
C McCann
1B Glaus
LF Willingham
SS Gonzalez
CF Cabrera.
That’s a hell of a lineup.
ZC1 - July 24, 2010
Sounds like the Nats want a boatload for Willingham (as they should.) I doubt he gets moved.
Scott Coleman - July 24, 2010
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