It's been discussed quite a bit in the last couple of weeks, "who is this Brandon Beachy kid, and where did he come from?" Some of us here at Talking Chop are getting thrashed for not including this guy in our mid-season top-30 list. But most people are left scratching their heads about how well a non-drafted free agent like this can be carving up double-A.
He was good enough this week to make Baseball America's Prospect Hot-Sheet. Here is what they had to say:
Two years after going undrafted and signing a free agent deal with the Braves, Beachy is making quite a name for himself. His spot in the Southern League all-star game was well deserved. Beachy spent most of the year dominating as a reliever, going 1-1, 1.40 with 49 strikeouts in 39 innings, but when a spot in the Mississippi rotation opened up, the Braves jumped at the chance to see what he could do in a starting role at Double-A. He hasn't disappointed. In 30 innings since moving to the rotation, Beachy has gone 2-0, 0.90 and has accumulated a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 44-to-6. He has limited batters to just a .155 average. And he's not doing it with deception: Beachy has a 90-94 mph fastball and a plus curveball.
He's been absolutely filthy this year. BA also has a good full length article about Beachy (subscription required). Here is a quote from Beachy from that article:
"My best pitch is definitely the fastball," he said. "If I can control that, move it in and out and get ahead of hitters, it really sets me up to use my offspeed stuff."
He's just a standard three-pitch pitcher with a fastball, change-up, and curve. Are his pitches really that good? Are they plus? Plus-plus? A guy doesn't strike out 93 batters in 68.2 innings without having some pretty damn good stuff. BA says in the quote above that his curve is a plus pitch, and they allude to the fact that his fastball may be as well. All of this from an undrafted junior out of college.
I guess my question to everyone is, "is this guy for reals?" Is this a case where the book just hasn't gotten out on him yet. Is this a case of a player just having an exceptional hot streak, and he'll eventually come down to earth? I'm as confused as the next guy, though I'm enjoying the ride for the moment. Is he the second coming of Scott Diamond (that was my thinking for keeping him out of my top-30 list, just not enough history of this kind of dominance, my thinking is that it's a fluke... of course, if he keeps it up for the whole year, then it's not a fluke).
In the comments, give me your opinion of Beachy, and if you've seen him pitch, tell us why he's special.
0 recs | 20 comments
Good post, after reading the recap from lastnight i was thinking bout writing a post to see if anyone could tell me some more about this kid. I agree with you in the sense that he is doing this at double a and not low a or even the rookie leagues, it would seem he has good stuff and from the pictures it looks like he has a very projectable body. When the Braves work magic with their prospects like this it just shows how amazing our scouting dept is. Anyways, i hope someone who has watched him can give us a litte more insight on his stuff, im curious
HawksBaseball2 - July 16, 2010
From everything I’ve read he sure seems to be for real…a real diamond in the rough (no pun intended). But then again I’m not sure how much of that is me wanting him to be for real and how much is my unbiased baseball side.
At this point, I’m thinking that he’s pitched too well for too long for this to be just a hot streak. I think we’re looking at someone who has a future in the Braves starting rotation. I dont think he’ll keep putting up ace numbers like he has been, but I think we could be looking at a very good #3 starter if he keeps progressing well like this.
Zeus12888 - July 16, 2010
Every year, someone surprises like this. I can’t speak to whether or not it’s for real, but I’ll withhold judgement until he’s done it for a full year and maybe a chunk of next year.
telemakhos - July 16, 2010
The thing to remember is that even if he is now a “real” prospect at AA level, the odds of him becoming a big leaguer is still fairly slim. Now, if enough other teams view him as a real prospect, then he will have some real values as a trade bait.
LEastCoastBears - July 16, 2010
Not for play play, but for reals real?
I’m liking it so far. Maybe just a fluke, but damn if it isn’t a long term fluke then cause his numbers have been solid on the way up. Not like this, but still solid. Maybe we found another hidden gem?
Can rbraves, cbwilk, or any of the other regular minor league attendees speek on how he did the last year or two between Rome, Myrtle, and now Mississip?
Mr. Sanchez - July 16, 2010
Beachy also throws a slider. I dont know if he ditched it for the change but my guess is he is real and just getting a chance. ba says he site closer to 94 and there are reports from our readers.that have him as high as 96. With plus fastball command and a plus-plus curve he has to be legit.
yondaime4 - July 16, 2010 via mobile
My take
I don’t know anything about Beachy specifically and have never seen him pitch but when a pitcher ‘comes out of nowhere’ it is usually because they find their control and comand when they previously had problems with it. Not a ton of guys can all of a sudden thow 94 consistantly as a starter when they were 86-88 fastball guys before. However some guys who have the physical tools to throw 94-96 have something click either mentally or learned mechanically they suddenly can become much greater than what they have been.
So now if Beachy who can throw hard enough (92-96 is plenty fast enough to be dominant) AND now combine that with the ability throw strikes and comand his pitches within the zone as he says he can now do AND have a plus or plus-plus breaking ball which in this case is a curve AND a third or fourth pitch that the hitters have to think about… then all of a sudden you can have a dominant starting prospect when you once had just a non-prospect.
bbxxj - July 16, 2010
My take is very similar.
I’d add:
(1) scouting is by no means infalible. Look at 1st and 2d round picks that never even get close to the MLs.
(2) the mental and psychological factors that impact on success for any given player can be huge.
So, to me, there’s no reason to think he can’t continue on and graduate soon to hot prospect status.
fandave - July 16, 2010
He was pretty damn dominant when I saw him throw in Carolina. He hasn’t built up the arm strength to go deep into games, and I’m actually not sure he can, but that’s only something you could know if he was starting from day 1 of a season. The best thing about him is that he’s pretty much unflappable on the mound. I don’t know if that comes from pitching as a reliever so much, and thus being in a lot of tight situations, or if it’s just an internal thing based off his even-keel personality. Beach is a great kid, he’s very smart and very thoughtful and I’m really happy to see him doing so well.
So yeah, I didn’t have him on my top 30. Maybe that was a mistake, it looks more and more like one with each appearance, but I was looking at his track record more than his performance this year. If he keeps it up there’s no way I can’t have him on the end of the year list.
cbwilk - July 16, 2010
I am pretty sure he threw 100 pitches last night just threw a lot in a short span because of the ks. He will be on list as well. Probably top 20
yondaime4 - July 16, 2010 via mobile
That’s true, strikeouts eat into your pitch count. Yeah, a full season of dominance at AAA, for a guy who’s been pretty decent his whole career, would be very hard to ignore.
cbwilk - July 16, 2010
From the Kokomo Tribune
Beachy closed his Woodstock run with a 1-3 record, seven saves and a 2.89 ERA. He held opponents to a .203 batting average, and he had 33 strikeouts against just seven walks in 182/3 innings.
"I was able to concentrate on just pitching for the first time in my life, and that was very helpful. I learned a lot and I got better. I just want to continue that," he said.
Former Indiana Wesleyan skipper Mark DeMichael knew Beachy had the potential to develop into a professional prospect as a relief pitcher. Beachy had a 3-4 record and nine saves over his final two seasons with the Wildcats.
"He is a hard thrower. He has a plus-fastball and he has learned how to throw a nice cutter. He also has a reliever’s mentality — he doesn’t want to finesse people, he is going to challenge people," said DeMichael, who coached the Wildcats through the 2008 season and is now IWU’s athletic director.
"He closed for us as a sophomore [in 2007] and did a really nice job. This year, he sort of went back and forth between starting and relieving depending on how his arm was feeling [after a biceps strain and shoulder tendinitis]. But you just knew he could flourish as a reliever, and he has this summer."
DeMichael said Beachy, at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds with a strong lower body, is well built for a pitcher. And DeMichael and Berryman both noted Beachy has a fresh arm.
"He wasn’t a big-time pitcher at a young age and he doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear. He has only been throwing for about three years at a higher level so he has a good opportunity to get better," Berryman said.
http://kokomotribune.com/sports/x518901521/Braves-sign-NWs-Brandon-Beachy
Fred Pen - July 16, 2010
Sounds like the kid just never was able to dedicate himself to pitching before
getting to the minors, but now has professional coaching and dedicates 100% to pitching. Would be quite a story if he ever makes it to the majors.
Fred Pen - July 16, 2010
Prospects are an inexact science, obviously,
especially pitching prospects. But to me, if a guy is just dominating at AA you have to take him seriously, regardless of whatever else is going on (the same applies to our new relief prospect, Tim Collins). That’s not to say he’s a guarantee, but to be doing what he’s doing at AA is a sure sign that he should be on our prospect radars. Not in our top 10 prospects, but on there somewhere. His lack of a track record isn’t that worrisome for me. Some guys figure it out late, just like some guys with great track records and scouting reports flame out when they hit AA.
Jacob Peterson - July 16, 2010
Some people get overlooked
Even at the professional level, there are plenty of talented baseball players that teams miss. It’s rare but it happens. In Beachy’s case, I have to believe what he is doing is real. Anyone with that type of control and strikeout rate is legitimate to me.
BenDuronio - July 16, 2010
Philz lose! yesh
MBL1 - July 16, 2010 via mobile
I'm thinking if he can keep up this success 4th or 5th time through the
league than he might be a prospect but let’s not get too excited just yet
Jaymin Patel - July 16, 2010
wtf?
I’m not sure if its anything to be concerned about, or if its all in my head but:
Is there such thing as having an overabundance of a commoditable product? If competitors know that your organization is supersaturated with a particular resource, might they not offer you a lesser return, banking on the fact that you have a surplus of said product and might be more willing to concede it closer to the buyer’s rate, than the seller’s rate? In short, is it possible to have too many pitching “prospects”?
But then we get into the semantics of what it is to be a “prospect” and what is the value of a “prospect”. That particular word we bandy about with such reckless indifference, and yet what does it truly mean to be a prospect? Is a prospect someone with a better-than-average chance of reaching and/or staying in the major leagues? Or is a prospect someone who is expected to reach the heights of stardom. Is it a guesstimation of potential and projectability by scouts? And if so, is there such thing as an “older prospect”, or players who fully developed at an older age such as Nelson Cruz or Ryan Howard?
And yet, depending of the unique situation of his respective ballclub, aren’t prospects as a whole, and specific prospects subject to differences in value? To some clubs the value of a prospect may well lie in his potential value to the ballclub; others may consider his immediate value to a ballclub. Still others may view him as a conduit through which to convert potential, and projectable future value into a more easily attained immediate value.
….I just realized I am in no state of mind to be writing this. I just reread what I wrote and have no idea what the hell I am saying. I think I stareted out meaning to say that we have too many potential pitchers as is, but got kinda sidetracked. Good night people. DON’T DO DRUGS.
!Vive la Francoeur! - July 17, 2010
You can never have too many good players. Ever.
cbwilk - July 17, 2010
Bingo, or pitchers especially...
injuries, bad years, etc, etc, etc. Nope, no such thing as “too much”.
Mr. Sanchez - July 17, 2010
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