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Talking Chop

Braves Mid-Season Top-30 Prospects:  11-20

Shortstop Mycal Jones has all the tools to be a Major Leaguer.

Shortstop Mycal Jones has all the tools to be a Major Leaguer.

We continue our march through the Braves top-30 mid-season prospects today with 11 through 20. Once again this list was compiled by taking the three lists of gondeee, yondaime4, and cbwilk and averaging them together. The write-ups were contributed by all three bloggers, as we each try to write about the guys we know the best.

For top prospects 21 through 30 click here.

Here is the middle third. Note that stats for hitters include batting average / on-base percentage / slugging percentage, while stats for pitchers include ERA / WHIP / innings pitched.

11 Mycal Jones, SS :: .274/.321/.410 between Rome and Myrtle Beach
Older for the leagues he's been playing in, Jones got a bit of a late start in the pros, but he seems to be making up time quickly. He uses his quick hands and swing to put the ball in play, then uses his plus speed to get on, get over, and get in. He's shown the ability to be an above average hitter, but needs to show consistency. He still has too much of a fly-ball swing, but once he refines that and focuses more on hitting line drives he should add more points to his average. His defense at short is a work in progress, and while he's shown good range and a strong arm, he needs to cut down on his errors.

12 J.J. Hoover, RHP :: 3.83/1.28/91.2 at Myrtle Beach
Hoover was recently called the ‘the most average pitching prospect I have ever seen' by Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally. He may be right that none of Hoover's assets would be considered plus (maybe his command) but he does everything well and is greater than the sum of his parts. Actually, calling him average is a compliment to Hoover, since he doesn't have any holes in his game. J.J. had a rough introduction to the Carolina League but he adjusted quickly and put together a string of fantastic starts with just a couple of bumps before righting the ship once again after the All Star game. He has command of a curve and change and uses them effectively to induce weak pop ups. In most systems he would probably be a top-two or three pitching prospect but he is fifth or sixth best with the Braves. His ceiling is probably that of a third starter, but he has a good chance of being something useful in the majors, just maybe not with Atlanta. 

13 Adam Milligan, OF :: .200/.277/.376 at Myrtle Beach
Milligan was the one of the few hitting prospects we Braves fans had to look forward to this season after he demolished two levels of the minors in 2009. Unfortunately Adam hurt his shoulder early in the 2010 campaign and will probably be out for the rest of the season. When healthy he could be the Braves best chance for a power outfield bat. The biggest knock is his plate discipline and contact rate. If those two facets can level out and his injury can heal Adam has the potential to be a 5 or 6 hole hitter in the majors. 

Star-divide

14 Brett Oberholtzer, LHP :: 3.52 between Rome and Myrtle Beach
A big strong lefty with a bulldog mentality, Oberholtzer gets as much out of his stuff as any Braves prospect. His offerings are average, a low-90s fastball that he couples with a curveball and a changeup, he succeeds by being smarter than hitters and being willing to throw any of his pitches, at any time, in any location. He's a superior athlete and does all the little things well, just a further sign of his off-the-charts makeup.

15 Jose Ortegano, LHP :: 6.05/1.69/83.1 between Myrtle Beach and Gwinnett
Despite being only 22 year old, Ortegano is in his 7th season with the Braves, making him the most experienced player on this list. He's been affected this year by a mild shoulder strain that caused him to miss all of Spring Training and begin the year with Myrtle Beach on a rehab assignment. He's been inconsistent since his promotion to Gwinnett, but he still has good stuff, with a low to mid-90s fastball, a plus curve, and a solid changeup. His future may come out of the bullpen, where he can dial his fastball up to 98 mph.

16 Zeke Spruill, RHP :: 7.94/1.53/17 between GCL (2 rehab games) and Myrtle Beach
Over the last year Spruill has been demoted from Rome to the GCL for missing team meetings, and put on the disabled list after he broke his hand punching a wall. The Braves have had a couple of guys in the last few years who were loaded with talent but didn't quite get things together mentally (Steve Evarts and Jake Stevens come to mind) and Zeke appears to be following this path. He is probably the most projectable pitcher in the system with a long, lanky body that could add weight and velocity. He throws a heavy sinking fastball with precision that is coupled with a solid change and curve. Spruill recently returned to action with Myrtle Beach and we will see what he can do in the second half of the season, but right now his attitude is the key to his future success, at least with the Braves.

17 Kyle Rose, OF :: .273/.341/.312 at Rome
The fastest player in the Braves organization, the long and lean Rose ran wild in the Gulf Coast League last season, but has had trouble with the running game for Rome this season, getting caught more times than he's been successful in stolen base attempts (19-for-39). While he's shown a decent ability to walk, he could still stand to improve in that area, and his ability to hit the ball with authority is almost nonexistent, meaning his future is entirely wrapped up in his ability to use his speed. He is a plus defender in centerfield with an average arm. He has been learning how to switch hit since Spring Training, a move that could help his ability to beat out singles; but he has yet to try it in an actual game.

18 Carlos Perez, LHP :: 0.48/1.07/18.2 at Danville
He din't impress statistically last season as a 17 year old in the Gulf Coast League, but he's gotten off to a great start with Danville this season. A lanky lefthander with a mid-90s fastball and developing off-speed stuff, Perez finds himself in a similar position to Randall Delgado a few seasons ago as a player that few know about who has the potential to become one of the team's top arms. If he continues his solid work at Danville, he may not only find himself in Rome by the season's end, he could also work his way into one of the top-10 spots on this list.

19 Joe Leonard, 3B :: .278/.333/.417 at Danville
At 6' 5" 220 lbs, Leonard is a big guy who fits the physical profile for a third baseman perfectly. As a junior at Pitt he hit .436, which was in the top-10 nationally and earned him Big East Player of the Year honors. Defensively he has the potential to be an above average third baseman with a very strong arm that he used to also set the career record for saves a Pitt. Offensively he has a profile similar to a lot of our other hitters: a good line drive stroke but without much power projection. If he can develop average power, his defense could carry him to the majors (quickly).

20 Andy Otero, LHP
After dominating the Dominican Summer League as a 17 year old last season, the Braves couldn't wait to see what Otero could do in the Gulf Coast League this summer, but an injury has prevented him from playing in a single game so far this year. As an undersized, athletic lefty, he's been compared to Mike Hampton (the injury this year being an unfortunate coincidence), and while his low-90s fastball is nothing special, his curveball has repeatedly been described as "unhittable."

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Comments

We could obtain almost any available player in baseball without giving up Teheran, Freeman, or Kimbrel…ridiculous…

_runs from the probable rosterbation police approaching..

Actually, I doubt that.

We have plenty of B prospects to get the guys you can get with B prospects, but I think there are tons of players (even available players) that would require giving up Teheran or Freeman. (I don’t think Kimbrel is our third best trading chip [or prosepect] so I don’t really put him in the list.)

I don’t think Kimbrel is out 3rd best prospect, but I see him as one of the most important pieces of our system and untradeable. To put it another way, I would rather us trade a higher prospect like Delgado than Kimbrel (our probable long term closer).

So, your telling me that you don’t think a team would be interested in a package of Mike Minor, Mike Dunn, and Randall Delgado??? IMO, that would be almost enough to nab anybody…

I doubt Mike Dunn...

…has much trade value. He isn’t that young, he hasn’t controlled the walks, and he projects as a LOOGY. Randall Delgado and Mike Minor are very nice trade pieces, however. I just think that there are some guys in the league (Adrian Gonzalez for example, if he were available, which he isn’t given the standings) that would command more.

Dunn doesn’t project as a LOOGY, he has been doominate to both left handed (.143BA) and right handed hitters (.200BA). Give him a break, he’s only 25 (with only 4 years pitching wear on his arm), I’m 24 and if you said that I wasn’t that young, I’d be puh-issed. I could totally see teams eyeing him a potential closer…

I said almost enough, of course, there would be 1-2 additional low level players involved in a mega-deal like that..

Well, s**t, you're under thirty...

…so I think you are young and so is Dunn, but that doesn’t mean that Dunn is young for a prospect. Dunn could end up being a closer, but unless he controls the walks, he is more of a lefty set-up guy or a Mitch Williams type closer. Teams could see him as a potential closer, but usually teams don’t look at lefties as closers (whether that is smart or not is another question). And honestly, teams that are smart enough to look at lefties as potential closers are probably smart enough to know that closers are not as valuable as they are popularly believed to be.

I understand your view point on closers. Pretty sure you think that I value Kimbrel so much because I think closers are worth more because the popular “save” statistic implemented way back whenever. That’s kinda true/kidna not, its all about the nature of the game now. We are going to have a closer on the team no matter what. You want your most dominate relief pitcher to be the closer because “usually” those final 3 outs in a game are the most intense (and they want their save stat). I value Kimbrel and Dunn because they both have dominate stuff and both would potentially fit in that closers role. I can’t say that about most of our other relief pitchers, hence value is created.

IMO, the lack of lefty closers is because there simply isn’t the amount of southpaw pitchers as right handers. The number of power lefties is low, and most seem to be starters. Teams have enough trouble finding one lefty to perform the LOOGY duties…

I also don't get the importance you place on Kimbrel.

Yes, he is a nice relief prospect and potential closer. He still has some control issues, but they are improving. Still, closers don’t pitch enough innings to be as important as any of the starters and are overvalued in general in baseball. Hell, the Braves won plenty of division titles with mix and match garbage closers in the 90’s.

In around 40-50 games, they pitch the most important inning. And I would love to have “the right handed version of Billy Wagner” for the next 10 years. I’m negating some value towards the starters just because of the depth we have. I’m a big believer in trading from strengths to solve weaknesses. Pending injury (there’s always gonna be injury tho), we won’t even have an open spot in our rotation until 2013.

9th inning of a 3 run game is not the most important IP

What inning of a 3 run game is more important?

Innings 1-7

Where, presumably, there’s someone pitching who does not have the lead.

Now, we are escaping the scope of my original comment. The reason of this discussion is the value of Kimbrel. I valued him higher than some of our other highly thought of starting pitching prospects. The reason is because we have so many quality starting pitching prospects, but only one “for real” closer prospect. There’s a variety of guys that cover innings 1-7, but usually only one guy that management has enough faith in to continuously send them out in high pressure situations. Kimbrel is a guy that I would like for that spot and I don’t want to lose.

In Bronn’s argument, pitching in a losing effort to conserve a reasonable comeback attempt isn’t on the same level of pressure as those final 3 outs. What about the team that does have the lead in those 1-7 innings? It’s a close game, the losing team’s hitters are thirsty for a new pitcher, the crowd’s loud, etc.. You want the guy out there, that has experience in that situation and can just go out there and get er done. (That’s actually the first time I ever used get er done in a sentence before, and last time)

You misunderstand me. The man who pitches in the first inning is pitching in a tie game, and each of those situations is more important than any 3 run lead that a closer will inherit. Almost any pitcher in baseball can 3 outs before allowing 3 runs 95% of the time. Great closers won’t have nearly as much as value as a starting pitcher who has a 4.75 ERA over 180 innings.

They whole point of everything I’ve said is that a closer is part of the team, so why not have an awesome one. Kimbrel is potentially an awesome one, so I value him more than some of our starting pitching prospects that we might not ever have spots for.

Our SP Top Prospects-Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Hoover, Spruill, Lopez, Minor, Perez

Our CL Top Prospects-Kimbrel

Number of SP on Braves roster for 2011 – 6

Number of CL on Braves roster for 2011 – 0

So,, I’d rather trade one of those starters (outside of Teheran), than our only true CL prospect..

If trading Kimbrel gets me the player I need, I certainly won’t hesitate to move him, and I’d move him before I’d move Delgado, Minor, or Hoover. We can have use Moylan, Venters, Gearrin, or Marek to close, or we can sign any cheapish free agent closer, and it won’t matter nearly as much in the long run as having a great starter.

Marek as a possible closer?

you can barely count his minor league saves on one hand. not too mention the fact he can’t seem to get out AA and AAA batters. you cannot honestly say you would feel comfortable pitching Marek in any big league game, much less the 9th inning of a 1 run game

Have you actually looked at Marek’s stats this season? I would say that combined sub – 1.00 ERA isn’t quite "barely getting out AA/AAA batters/. Also it is hard to pick up saves when Brandon Beachy, Craig Kimbrel and Mike Dunn are all closing at the levels you play at. I’m not saying he is a future closer but you’re reasoning isn’t sound.

he’s turned it around this year i know. but that doesn’t negate the previous 4 or 5 years of mediocre minor leauge ball. and with beachy, kimbrel, and dunn i don’t see how marek is even in the conversation. the braves would explore a dozen other options before throwing marek in a closers role.

Are we going to have a 10 men rotation? We have a surplus, we can move some starters while maintaining tremendous depth at the position. We are most likely losing both our closer and setup man next season (our bullpen is going to be holey and much different next season). Then, we have a guy that is being constantly compared to Billy Wagner and has already been successful in a brief major league stint, but you would rather move him? Do you remember what we went through in the past few years with the cheapish closers we had (Reitsma, Kolb)? Why did management spend big money on a Wagner and Saito, when they had Moylan? Marek could possibly work, but trusting his 30IP this year is risky..

dude, KK and Lowe (possible JJ)

won’t be around forever. our minor league SP depth is still pretty far away from MLB. so, we’ll definitely have some open spots in our rotation in the future.

plus, it’s pretty doubtful that all of our elite SP’s pan out.

KK is gone after 2011, but he’s not in the rotation anyways. Lowe is gone after 2012, Hudson’s contract runs out the same year (we have a club option for 2013), and JJ will be a free agent until 2014.

Just some support you could of used…

exactly, '11 and '12

are where we can expect to see our SP depth come up anyway. And I wouldn’t be surprised if JJ gets dealt at some point.

Main point: Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino are more valuable than Kimbrel, regardless of the fact that we are currently stacked with SP’s at the MLB level.

I never said they weren’t. We could get a big time bat for one or two of them.

True

and I’d be fine with this, if it weren’t just for a rental player (C. Hart).

Then we are in agreement!

My original argument was that I’d be OK trading Minor, Delgado, or Vizcaino, but I’d like to keep Kimbrel, since we have glaring holes in the back of our bullpen next season.

Nevermind, I just read your other post…

Let’s just call it a gentleman’s agreement and call it a day.

>Why did mgmt spend money on Wags + Saito

because they overvalue RP’s. Saito wasn’t a bad deal, but I wasn’t and still am not a fan of signing Wags when you consider we’ll have him for one year and lost a 1st round draft pick (Type A)

If they overvalue RPs, then they are probably overvaluing Kimbrel. That means they agree with my side. I’m comfortable being on the same side as the big decision makers.

If you just want to agree with the majority

regardless if it’s objectively correct, then I’m wasting my time.

To be honest, you kinda are. Nothing you will say will convince me to change my opinion that Kimbrel (along with my previously mentioned Heyward and Teheran) should NOT be traded.

I don’t necessarily want to trade him either (unless we get a crazy good return).

But I’d trade him before I trade any of our SP depth.

I meant Freeman instead of Heyward..damn he’s good.

I just don’t agree with the sentiment that Kimbrel is more valuable (or less likely to be traded) than any of our starters beyond Teheran. I think any of top 5 prospects has more value, and if I were dealing with someone who had interest in both, I’d offer Kimbrel first. Eventually we’ll have to deal one of our top 4 prospects, and possibly a couple of them, but we’d best get some solid return on them.

we could trade delgado or minor or teheran straight up for 2 or 3 great closer prospects. The value level just isn’t the same. You keep your best commodities without caring if you have a surplus and then worry about what to do when they reach the majors.

OK, so let’s trade Kimbrel now, and then trade Delgado and MInor for some closer prospects next year when we have holes throughout our bullpen? I know this isn’t what you meant, but I had to..

And yall are totally missing me on the value thing. I know Delgado and Minor are more valuable, hence we would get more value in return. Kimbrel wouldn’t bring back as much, on top of us really needing him next season and beyond..

Say we trade for Josh Willingham. We could probably get by with a Minor for Willingham swap (it might require a lower graded prospect as well). If they were also open to a Kimbrel package, then we probably would have to include another high grade prospect or a few other mid graded prospects.

Of course, most ML closers were starters in the Minors.

Yes, and last season I actually had RDelgado pegged as our future closer, but now I think RDelgado should def. remain a starter and Kimbrel is our best choice.

I compare Kimbrel to guys like Daniel Bard and Johnathon Broxton, who their respected teams made pretty much untouchable when they were flirting with the bigs. He’s awfully close and can fill the most consistently intense position in the bullpen.

I’d love to see Bardo playing for the Braves. Great kid and a lifelong Braves fan. Maybe one day…

I honestly think that is starting the change though. There are a lot more guys coming out of college as closers or set up men than there were in the past. Sure you are gonna get some live armed HS guys that never make it as a starter but I think we are on the cusp of seeing a change in professional baseball closers are developed as such from an early stage. Obviously people will always want their best arms starting but we are in an age of specialization

and given that, as well as our awesome run after the 9 G losing streak and (apparently) great clubhouse cohesion, I’m betting against FW making any major trade deadline moves.

Not

even Matt Kemp? You know you want him…

Kemp or Franklin Gutierrez — either of them would look mighty good in a Braves uniform.
My bet is, however, no deal.

They would look great in a Braves uniform.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers and Mariners think they look great in a Dodgers and Mariners uniform, respectively. Which is why this goes nowhere. Young cheap players under team control who have been successful in the majors are almost impossible to get in a trade. I mean, would the Braves even consider trading Prado?

Suggestion

Can you put their ages next to their stats as well, because that helps judge what they are doing (whether they are generally older for their league or not). Just a thought.

Good suggestion. They obviously use age as one of the major evaulation criteria in their rankings.

I like that idea.

I also like the idea of K and BB numbers for the pitchers.

Nicely done. Hopefully Zeke can right the ship soon; his emergence could give us the best minor league pitching in baseball.

as if we don't already have it?

rays maybe?

its close and I don’t know much about the rays but I think the braves have the best 5, Rays may have more depth.

Joe Leonard ahead of Todd Cunningham?

An interesting choice.

gondeee and yodaime14 love him. I didn’t have him on my list cause he hadn’t signed when I turned it in. Still not sure I would have though.

if he wasn't on yours and ended up this high...

they must have. I’ll admit, I’m on the bandwagon. But it does seem strange to see the 4th choice in the most recent draft above #s 2 and 3.

Well Leonard had better stats against tougher college competition.

The only position that Cunningham’s bat projects well at as a MLB starter is CF, and it’s not a given that his glove will play there. Leonard’s frame and college stats would indicate that his bat has a good chance of sticking at 3rd, while his glove is already considered ML ready from what i’ve read.

I’ll admit I am on the Leonard bandwagon

Can I have a bandwagon on that bandwagon’s bandwagon?

I knew he was good defensively. I thought he would develop into a power bat? That’s what I thought the way people were talking about him.

His power projection is fairly average, and based on speculation. He might be like a Casey Blake, but even that is just the upside. He’s probably a lot more like Mark Teahen, whose bat barely plays at third base.

good comparison
+1

That’s very interesting! Cause if Gondee didn’t like Cunningham cause he was constantly going the other way then he really won’t like Leonard cause that’s all they teach their hitters at Pitt and the Braves thinking is if they can get him to turn on the ball more that he’ll hit for more power.

Also

They started Leonard out in Danville for a reason so where guys start out should make some kind of difference in the ranking as well shouldn’t it?

That assumes that the front office is perfectly competent, which is never a route to go. If you assume that, there isn’t very much point in discussing anything. While they are very competent, it’s completely possible they made a mistake in where they assigned Leonard. He probably would have been best served by immediately joining Rome, especially when you consider how many third-baggers we have in Danville.

Regardless, it’s just odd to see our 4th round draft pick ranked ahead of our 2nd round draft pick only a month after the draft itself. I think Leonard is just getting a lot of credit because of the difference in competition level in college.

Lenoard has been moved to Rome (today). Jordan Kreke has been moved to Myrtle Beach. Robby Hefflinger is on the DL with a broken thumb. Fouch has been put on military leave to fufill his military obligation (God Bless him). Busy roster day in Rome.

Busy day indeed. Wonder how long Fouch is going to be gone. Good luck to him most of all. Stay safe.

Someone should write a post for the front page on this. We got to show him some TC support!!

If I knew anything about him or his military commitment, or anything related to anything about it, I would.

leonard is ranked highest here probably because he’s closest to the majors and plays 3rd base. Everyone loves to picture him as chipper’s replacement and that’s why he’s rated higher than the others.

Gondeee also saw cuningham for 1 game.

Yet

He formed his opinion of him from those couple ABs.

that was my point.

exactly what I thought while reading the article/entry

What kind of a sample size are we looking at with Perez’s numbers? That’s filthy

the third number in the triple slash is IP
Just curious

Did any of you rank Mauricio Cabrera? Or is it entirely premature to include him?

None of us did, and it’s probably too early. I just haven’t heard that much about him yet, and I like to hold off on the international guys until they get to the states and more scouts get to see them.

Sounds about right

Including 16 year olds in prospect lists is just asking too much; of course, we were looking at Teheran as far back as two years ago, and he hasn’t disappointed.

At some point, we’ll need to get some better scouting reports for Saldeno and Espinosa too, since they’re both just 17 and pitching really well against mostly older competition.

I don’t know if he was even signed when we made the list.

I don’t know that he projects that high honestly, though being he is young you probably can’t make any projection on him yet.

No mention of Adam Milligan standing pat despite missing the year?...

that probably surprised me most of this list.

I’ve never really liked Milligan, but know some TCers do. It’s just one of those things I’m accepting right now.

It’s a misrepresentation to say that he’s standing pat, considering the attrition of guys who were ahead of prior to the year. Heyward graduated. Cody Johnson has completely failed to prove he can succeed in AA. Zeke Spruill has done more than any other prospect I know of to hurt his own status. “Standing pat” would have likely bumped him up a couple of spots, but he’s been leapfrogged by several people.

At any rate, he’s in a spot where there’s a bit of a cluster, with him and Ortegano and Oberholtzer. I’d definitely take Hoover ahead of him, but 13-17 are much more debatable.

yeah, like we said there was a lot of dissension after about #12 or so and I can be honest and say I think I whiffed on a couple of guys, but I am also a Milligan fan.

Question

When has Ortegano ever hit 98? I’ve seen him once this season and he topped out at 91 and was sitting 88-90 so is this new found velocity or something?

I’ve wondered the same, becuase I’ve heard him refered to as a soft-tossing lefty before. I’m guessing he can only throw a certain amount of those 98 heaters. Ole’ John Rocker could throw about 20-25 pitches at high 90’s, but then couldn’t hit 90 again..

I’ve had this same question…

I’ve seen him do it! Multiple times! He did it in the 8th inning of a game that he started last year. I had the Braves pitcher sitting in the stands confirm it for me. I saw him do it in ST in 08, and I know cause I was looking at a gun that one of the Braves pitching coaches was holding.

I was just asking

Cause i’ve never saw or have heard anyone(but you) say anything about him being above 91 maybe the stadium gun wasn’t working properly that day but I trust your word CB.

I haven’t seen it anywhere else either, expect back when he first signed everyone said it about him. I’m starting to feel like either I’m crazy or people aren’t really paying attention to the guns when he’s throwing. I did see him start this year and he was between 89 and 94 with the fastball.

The game last year you said was 97. I have a mental image of that stuck in my head, cause that was the day you gave me hope that Ortegano was not just a soft tosser, like I had heard.

Then at worst I mistyped (or misdisremembered) and put 98 instead of 97 this time. My bad.

I wasn’t calling you out or anything…just that I remember vividly that you claimed it, because it was probably the best part of my day that day..

No, I didn’t think you were, just trying to preemptively defend myself against other.

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