Well, that was not a fun way to end the first half... but let's look at the bright side. The Braves still won the series, and they still go into the All-Star Break with a 4-game lead in the NL East.
Johan Santana was pretty darn good today. He was keeping the ball up, knowing that even if we hit the ball hard in the air, Citi Field was big enough to hold them. And sure enough, he got us to pop up constantly. Fourteen of the twenty balls the Braves hit in play off of Johan were fly balls. And most of them were pop-ups, seemingly.
Only three Braves--Omar Infante, Matt Diaz, and Melky Cabrera--had hits today. Omar had 2 hits, giving him 9 for the series. Diaz continued his excellent work against Santana with 2 more hits (he's batting over .500 off Johan in his career). Melky had the Braves' only extra-base hit, a bloop double down the right-field line that caused Jeff Francoeur to hilariously crash into the wall and flip over.
It would've been really nice to win today, but sometimes a guy is just too good. That was the case with Johan today. His final line was 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 H, 5 K, and a 0.428 WPA. The Mets' bullpen held the Braves hitless for the last two innings to close it out.
Braves' starter Derek Lowe flirted with disaster all game but somehow avoided any major damage. His sinker wasn't sinking at all (only 6/18 ground balls) and he had trouble controlling it. Still, he gave up only 2 runs, on an Alex Cora RBI single in the third and a solo homer by Ike Davis in the 6th. His final line was 5.1 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K, and a 0.007 WPA. Despite that slightly positive pitching WPA, Lowe still had the worst WPA on the Braves because he was so terrible at the plate, including an awful bunt that got a runner thrown out at third.
The Mets added a third run off of Takashi Saito in the 8th.
Martin Prado had another 0/4 today, making him hitless for the series. I'm sure he'll be fine after the All-Star break, though. Despite the game, I'm sure he'll appreciate not having to play more than 5-6 innings in a 3 day stretch. Chipper, Yunel, and Glaus also went 0/4; I'm sure all those guys could use the days off as well, as beat up as they've been.
Anyway, I hope everyone can put this game behind them and focus on the fact that we've got a nice lead in the division and have lost only 1 series in the past 2 months. It's going to be a fun second half!
MVP
Johan Santana (duh)
Honorable Mention
Ike Davis-- 2/3, BB, HR, R, RBI, K, 0.113 WPA
Angel Pagan-- 3/5, 3B, R, K, 0.034 WPA (that dude killed us in this series)
LVP
Derek Lowe (for his hitting)-- 0/2, failed sac bunt, bases-loaded K, -0.161 WPA
MVP in a Losing Effort
Melky Cabrera-- 1/3, BB, 2B, 0.073 WPA (I guess... there weren't any really good candidates.)
Clutch Plays
Cora's RBI single to open the scoring (0.108 WPA) and Davis' homer (0.106)
Unclutch Play
Lowe striking out with the bases loaded to end the 4th (-0.095)
0 recs | 48 comments
I was feeling a little “meh” because we lost…but that picture made my day. Thanks
MBL1 - July 11, 2010 via mobile
We didn’t have JJ for most of the 1st half.
We didn’t have Heyward for a month.
We didn’t have Matt Diaz for 2/3s of the half.
We didn’t have any production from Nate McLouth or Yunel Escobar.
Yet somehow, we go into the break with a 4 game lead and the best record in the NL.
I love this team.
Scott Coleman - July 11, 2010 via mobile
Avg
And, our team has ONE player batting over .300!!! ONE!!!!
traphicg - July 11, 2010 via mobile
technically 3 – I think Omar and Blanco have played enough to be counted as “batting over .300” even if they wouldn’t qualify for the batting title.
CharlotteChop - July 11, 2010
Nice to see Matty D get it going to finish the break – I think 7/15 to close it out.
CharlotteChop - July 11, 2010
this
Braves24 - July 11, 2010
Voice of Reason speaking ladies and gentleman.
Man with Matty D back on the team, we can go back to mashing LHP starters again. If Heyward comes back anywhere near 90%, OMG! we are going to be dangerous. Also with JJ back with the fresh arm, we can actually go on winning streaks as if its a normal thing. Only time I get nervous about this team is when Lowe pitches. In short, I love this team. Go Braves!
romone_braves91 - July 11, 2010
Not picking a fight here and not getting into superstats, just playing devil’s advocate with the basics. Since May 31, Lowe has 3.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Hanson is 4.74 and 1.55. I know, bad sample size, Lowe makes ace money. Hopefully Tommy’s out of his funk and back into his groove with the changes he made.
CharlotteChop - July 11, 2010
Also
There is what Chipper said a couple of weeks ago, before JJ’s return and KK’s win over the Tigers. They’d had a nine game losing streak and no wins from two starters who were in the opening day rotation and still they were (and remain) in first place. When you can stay above water with all of that tied to your leg, you’re going to take off when you get everything squared away.
Sam Jethroe - July 11, 2010
Good series but...
for all those who said Johan is past his prime and isn’t that good anymore…yea about that
And those who also said if the Mets got Lee they still wouldn’t beat us cause Johan isn’t that good anymore…yea about that
Infante, awesome series
Prado, rough series get better for after the break
Now after break we got 4 against Milwaukee, then Florida, then Washington sounds like WINS!!!
and other than that White Sox sweep we have won every series since May 9th, what a great stat
bflobraves - July 11, 2010
He is past his prime and he isn’t THAT good anymore.
He did pitch a great game today, but that doesn’t negate his career trending downward.
ATLandUNC - July 11, 2010
riiiiiiight
because he didn’t absolutly dominate us, coming off a complete game shutout, right he isn’t that gooooood
bflobraves - July 11, 2010
Logic doesn't work...
Jamie Moyer pitched a complete game shutout against us…
Fisted - July 11, 2010
Sorry to hear of the loss. But the guys have done very, very well lately. May that inertia help them glide right through the second half.
TheLetter2 - July 11, 2010
I don’t enjoy breaks….I love Braves baseball! (But if the break helps J-Hey, I will survive)
Joseph_C - July 11, 2010
BTW in the pics, it has a pic of our catcher and says “Brain McCann”. Hilarious!
Joseph_C - July 11, 2010
OT
anyone watching the futures game? can we get a thread going, if there’s enough interest?
atl192485 - July 11, 2010
im watching it
anyone know if minor and JT are gonna pitch?
bflobraves - July 11, 2010
also
maybe like a panshot thread
bflobraves - July 11, 2010
4-2 against the Phillies and Mets
We lost to Halliday and Santanna, and neither of those were give-aways, either. That’s a fine way to go into the break.
blwfish - July 11, 2010
and you know who pitched in those games?
Lowe. Lowe has won very few wins this year going against other teams’ aces.
Braves24 - July 11, 2010
I'd wager that has less to do with Lowe and more to do with the offense
DogDaysofSummer - July 11, 2010
yea
I’m not saying Lowe pitched bad. I’m saying that he doesn’t win a lot of games against the opponent’s top pitcher
Braves24 - July 11, 2010
4 ER in 12 1/3 IP against Halladay and Santana – not shabby – just no run support.
CharlotteChop - July 11, 2010
He gave up two runs in each of those two games, and the offense provided one and two, respectively. Huddy won his game because he gave up ZERO, but that’s a pretty tough standard for any pitcher, even an ace.
Two runs in 5.1 IP is a 3.39 ERA, and two ER in 7 IP is 2.57 – and neither of those suck. Even Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz were only winning maybe 50% against the other aces.
blwfish - July 11, 2010
The point is
That DLowe pitches like a down the rotation guy (which is fine, because even though he’s paid like a top of the line guy, he is a down the rotation guy), but if he’s not matched against a #3 or #4, he’s likely going to be pitching games like these: well, but not well enough to win because it’s a mismatch.
We need to juggle things a bit when the second half starts and try to have him up against guys more in his class. We would get better results and so would he.
Sam Jethroe - July 11, 2010
Over the course of the regular season, this matchup problem seems to be working out. With the other four in the rotation equating to a #1 (Huddy) to twos (Hanson when he’s on) and threes (JJ who can be a two when healthy and Meds) all of their matchups benefit from Lowe taking the hit at the top of the rotation. If any teams’ #1 is 50/50 against a Santana/ Halladay, the Braves may be playing the best game with matchups by being favored in 4 out of 5 matchups each time through the rotation (or at worst 3 out of 5). This may be a little too far out of the box, but I don’t think it’s a big deal for Lowe to “take one for the team” by being matched against the 1s. And of course, once playoffs roll around (if lucky enough to make it) you make the necessary rotational adjustments.
CharlotteChop - July 11, 2010
How many back-of-the-rotation guys
give up 2 ER when pitted against the other guys’ aces? Oh… KK does that a lot too. Another way to look at this is to ask how many #4s even keep you in the game against an ace like Halliday, Santanna – or Hudson? Not many. And we’ve got at least two, maybe three (Lowe, Medlen, Kawakami).
blwfish - July 11, 2010
How do you imagine doing that?
We can’t juggle our pitching rotation constantly to try to match up Lowe with a pitcher that’s getting the same results as he is currently getting. # 1. Opposing pitching rotations change due to injuries, adding pitchers, moving pitchers down, trades, etc.
#2. Our rotation may change for the same reasons. Our opponents change. He may get a team that is hot regardless of who the opposing pitcher is, or vice-verso.
#3. Pitchers sometimes vary, they go into mini-slumps from time to time. Unless we find someone whom can see into the future changing our rotation around is not going to work, as it stands now, he will be our last starter going into the second half of the season. This just happens to work out well for us, if again things stay as they are now.
HEYJUDE - July 11, 2010
Not sure if that was meant for me, but i defintely wasn’t arguing to play matchups each time through the rotation. What I was saying that if the rotation cycle is matching up Lowe against the other teams #1 then while in that cycle the Braves are benefiting by being favored in 3 if not all 4 other matchups.
CharlotteChop - July 11, 2010
I was not replying to you
It would look as it does now, if I were. I was replying to Sam. :)
HEYJUDE - July 11, 2010
whoops- ha
CharlotteChop - July 11, 2010
Hey, it's a just part of the learning process:)
HEYJUDE - July 11, 2010
I didn't write anything about
Juggling the rotation constantly. Bobby will have an opportunity to reset the rotation starting thursday. That’s all I was referring to.
While I can see CharlotteChop’s point that he might be buying the other guys in the rotation easier matchups, I would still prefer to see him matched against guys the offense has a better chance to score on.
I know that after a week or two the various off days and exigencies of the schedule take you off of the no.1 vs no. 1 matchups. I’m looking at his 2010 gamelogs right now and he’s drawn the other team’s middling guy at least as often as he has the ace (he’s been beaten twice by Jamie Moyer), and I’m probably overreacting to him throwning a couple of games that would net most pitchers (and more importantly, their teams) a win against Halladay and Santana the last two times out.
Lowe continues to be a source of puzzlement and frustration for me. He can look good enough that I think he’s getting ready to turn the corner but he seems to always slip back to his underachieving ways. I’m just trying to figure out how best to employ him until we can get his contract out of our hair.
He’s obviously a good guy and he seems to have been a great influence on Meds. Maybe we can all mentally justify his salary as being that of a combined 4th starter and personal pitching coach for our #3.
Sam Jethroe - July 12, 2010
It was all about control with Lowe's sinker.
The only pitch he could halfway hit his spots with was his slider so I’m actually a little impressed that he only gave up 2 runs but that’s just me.
DogDaysofSummer - July 11, 2010
My thoughts on a Sunday night...
maybe the Braves don’t need to make a “win now” move.
The return of Jair Jurrjens gives us a huge boost. To be honest, only Cliff Lee or Dan Haren could bring a bigger impact to a team. Lee is in Texas, and unless NY or Philly want to absolutely kill their farm system, they’re not getting Haren. So we already have the pitching advantage.
Heyward’s return alone would be a big boost to the offense, and that’s not including what Nate McLouth gives us. Multiple scouts said McLouth had some of his best swings and ABs of the entire season on Friday night so maybe he’s turning the corner as well.
With the way our LF 3-man platoon has been playing, I say we give Hinske 67% of the starts against righties and Infante 33% of the other starts against righties. Then give MattyD 67% of the starts against lefties and Infante the other 33%. That means we always have two of the best pinch hitters in the league on our bench at all times, along with Conrad, Blanco and Ross.
New lineups:
Against a lefty:
Prado
Diaz/Infante
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Heyward
Escobar
Melky
and against a righty:
Prado
McLouth
Chipper
McCann
Glaus
Heyward
Hinske/Infante
Escobar
I really don’t see us losing many games with that lineup and our pitching.
If McLouth still doesn’t have it, simply insert Gregor Blanco into the 2-hole against righties. He has great speed at the top of the order, is a fantastic bunter and works the count very well. He has no pop, but with the addition of Heyward to the lineup, it shouldn’t matter too much.
Thoughts?
Scott Coleman - July 11, 2010
I generally like it.
Though I wouldn’t start anyone in LF except Diaz against LHPs. And it should probably be “McCann/Ross” vs. LHPs too instead of just McCann.
Barring horrible injury problems, this is a playoff team, regardless of how the lineups are juggled, though. I just don’t see any NL teams that are better right now. Which is a nice feeling to have.
Jacob Peterson - July 11, 2010
I know you say probably
But Cox isn’t about to start platooning Brian McCann come September or play-off time or whenever. Ross will get his one start per week and fill in wheBMac is sore or needs a day. I know you know all this but we may as well make another movie with all this platoon talk…lol…(i know Macs numbers as well) Overall i think we should be looking for outfield help. What if J-Hey doesn’t come back the way everyone expects him to???? – then what? What if this is something that will take him an entire off-season to get over???
Nova Scotia Steve - July 11, 2010 via mobile
I like it
I know Prado has been tearing it up in the leadoff spot, but if Nate comes back healthy and performs to his capabilities, then I think he should return to the leadoff spot.
Braves24 - July 11, 2010
If McLouth has refound his stroke...
that as big an addition as anything on the trade market imo, unless some players are unexpectedly more realistic options that previously thought.
Mr. Sanchez - July 12, 2010
Truth.
I still would like to take a gamble on Cory Hart, but I think I am in the vast minority with that opinion.
justincredubil02 - July 12, 2010
I’d take him, but only for nickels and dimes from our farm system. It it involves trading one of our top pitching prospects, I’d rather wait and get someone bettter in the offseason.
Scott Coleman - July 12, 2010 via mobile
Good point- I am far from confident that will happen. In fact, I think there is a great chance he barely improves from where he’s started, but I will remain optimistic for the sake of being optimistic.
CharlotteChop - July 12, 2010
Is the AS break almost over? I am ready for more real baseball!!!
justincredubil02 - July 12, 2010
I agree
…with the comments about the Braves getting ready to soar even higher with Jay Hey back, a potentially healthy Nate M., and the rotation fortified with J.J. and a surging Medlin. I continue to believe that it is a mistake to think of Saito as our 8th inning guy. Another bunch of hits and a run yesterday. After a pretty good patch, Saito has moved into a period where he gives up lots of hits, too many of them dingers, has lots of runners on base, and gives up a run or so. I wish Bobby would go routinely with (7) Moylan, (8) Venters, and (9) Wags….with other guys thrown in where those guys are unavailable.
Buddy Holly - July 12, 2010
I’m not worried yet, but I’m getting close to worrying. I think the ASB will be great for him and all of our relievers.
Scott Coleman - July 12, 2010 via mobile
Nothing wrong with feeling nervous about Saito, he has definitely not been the same since returning from his hammy injury. I think it will all work out though, the Braves have so many good relievers they can mix/match/matchup their way through inning 7 and 8 should they not feel comfortable giving the entire inning to Saito.
Anyone else feel a little sorry for KK? I didn’t oppose his move to the bullpen, but I thought it was a pretty tell tale sign not to let him work at least one inning yesterday and was even more surprised they let Meds work one IP (I know to keep him lose going into AS Break) instead of giving KK and IP chance just for confidence purposes. I’ve seen a few shots of him in the bullpen, and it seems he is really down over this demotion ( who wouldn’t be?).
CharlotteChop - July 12, 2010
Didn't mind this loss
Was sort of expecting it — we’d won the series, it was the last game before break, a day game, and they were on the road prior to a few days off. The pic of Upside-Down Frenchy Cake definitely makes it at least a wash.
Now we have a few days to rest some dinged-up guys, watch a few get some national exposure for a change, and get focused on destroying the NL East in the second half.
skymuse - July 12, 2010
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