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Talking Chop

Braves at Dodgers - Series Preview

It was pretty obvious: The Dodgers and Braves didn't play very well in April and early May. The Braves had their 9-game losing streak and the Dodgers just couldn't put it together. Runners were being left on base, bone-head plays were being made in the field and the fans' confidence was at near an all time low for April. Surely these struggles wouldn't continue for two quality teams like the Braves and Dodgers, right?

Now it's June 2nd and the Braves and Dodgers are the two hottest teams in the league. We all know about the Braves, but here's some info on the Dodgers:

Basic Stats:

31-22, 2nd in NL West; won 4 straight.

Record in past 10 games: 6-4

Don't let him beat you: Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp

Don't let him get in a groove on the mound: Clayton Kershaw

Get him a haircut: Manny Ramirez

Offense:

They're a very talented club with a nice mixture of both young and veteran players. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are two of the best young outfielders in baseball. James Loney, despite not having typical first baseman power, is a solid young player. Russell Martin, despite never living up to his great rookie season a few years ago, is still one of the better young catchers around. As for the vets, Casey Blake has been great for the Dodgers at 3B and Manny Ramirez is still loafing around in LF at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers are 5th in the NL in runs scored (Braves - 4th), 2nd in team BA (Braves - 11th), 6th in team OBP (Braves - 1st) and run the bases well as they're 6th in stolen bases (Braves - 13th).

Where the Dodgers do struggle offensively is in the power department. They're 10th in HRs and 7th in doubles. This isn't to say they aren't dangerous though. 

Pitching:

Despite all their struggles in April, their rotation and bullpen has bounced back to the middle of the pack in the NL. They're staff is led by young lefty Clayton Kershaw and righty Chad Billingsley. Hiroki Kuroda is a solid #3 starter and 24-year old John Ely has come out of nowhere and filled in nicely in their rotation. It's been a bit of a revolving door at the 5th spot, with a combination of Vicente Padilla, Ramon Ortiz and Carlos Monasterios all making at least 2 starts this season. The Dodgers starting rotation is 10th in the NL in team ERA (Braves - 8th), 5th in innings pitched (Braves - 6th), 6th in HR allowed (Braves - 8th), 8th in BAA (Braves - 5th) and 9th in WHIP (Braves - 6th). The rotation for the Dodgers has improved though, especially with the departure of Russ and Ramon Ortiz.

The bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton, who can be down-right filthy when he's on his game. He's joined by LOOGY Hong-Chih KuoRamon Troncoso, Jeff Weaver and Ronald Belisario. They've received mixed performances from these guys and they're currently 9th in bullpen ERA. They're 5th in BAA and 6th in WHIP, so not too many base runners have reached against the Dodgers 'pen. Improvements were definitely made in the month of May and a lot of that had to do with the return of Kuo and Belisario. This isn't to say the game is over once it gets to the later innings. As long as the Braves continue their patience and clutch hitting at the plate, they should be able to scratch across a few runs in the upcoming 4-game series. 

A crazy (and a bit odd) stat, pitching match-ups and more after the jump:

Star-divide

Stat of the Series:

Record in April:  Braves 9-14, Dodgers 9-14

Record in May:  Braves 20-8, Dodgers 20-8

Record in June:  Braves 2-0, Dodgers 2-0

That's weird.

Pitching Match-ups:

Kris Medlen vs. Hiroki Kuroda, Thursday - 10:10EST

Kuroda has been very solid for the Dodgers this year. He comes in with a 5-3 record and a 3.55ERA (compared to a 3.72 FIP). He's been pretty hittable this year with a .282 BAA, but he makes up for it with excellent control. His K/BB ratio is an impressive 45-to-16, so the Braves will have to keep their patient approach at the plate if they want to have lots of base runners. 

Kenshin Kawakami vs. Clayton Kershaw, Friday - 10:10EST

Kershaw is the young, left-handed fireballer for the Dodgers and he's been impressive this year. He comes in with a record of 5-3 and an ERA of 2.95 (3.38 FIP). Kershaw is a strikeout pitchers and he's currently striking out more than 10 hitters per 9 innings. CK can and will walk opposing hitters, and he's walking more than 5 every 9 innings. I'm actually feeling good about the Braves' chances against Kershaw. He's one of the better pitchers in the league, but he throws a ton of pitches. The Braves lead in walks and OBP and this should give us a huge advantage against Kershaw.

Tommy Hanson vs. Chad Billingsley, Saturday - 10:10EST

Billingsley has been very good for the Dodgers in 2010. He's currently 6-2 with an ERA of 3.74 (3.78 FIP). His strikeout and walk numbers are impressive as well. He's striking out more than 8 hitters per 9 innings while only walking 3 per 9. 

Tim Hudson vs. John Ely, Sunday - 4:10EST

Who in the world in John Ely you ask? I asked myself the same thing and saw he's been incredible for the Dodgers this year. His numbers are a bit odd though. Actually, really odd. He comes in with a 3-2 record and an ERA of 2.54 and FIP of 2.08, but his xFIP is 3.47. He's averaged about 7 strikeouts per 9 innings and only a walk and a half in the same amount of time. Ely hasn't given up a HR this season, but his GB% is only 42%. This probably won't continue. Regardless of the odd stats, Ely has been great for the Dodgers this year. Let's all hope his fortunes change against the Bravos.

If you check out the start times, you'll notice three of the games won't start until after 10 on the east coast. Get some beer/coffee/beer/soda/beer and some popcorn and stay up to watch! Work is over-rated anyways.

Questions of the Series:

1. Is the winner of this series the best team in the NL? My money says yes. B oth teams are really close in stats and both were on fire in May. And if they split the series 2-2, well, I guess we're even.

2. How will the Braves handle the west coast? They went 3-3 against SF and SD earlier this year. We're a much better now.

3. Is "Heyward Goes to Hollywood" the stupidest promo FSS has ever had for the Braves? Yes.

My Prediction:

I'm thinking they'll split the series. Both teams are really good and they're both doing all the little things right.

GO BRAVES!

*Author's side note: I really hate Bud Selig. And if you don't, there's something wrong with you. He refuses to do anything gutsy and has basically ruined baseball. Thanks a lot, Bud. Just reverse the call. Joyce said he would be OK with it and Galarraga deserved to have the perfect game.

Poll
How will the upcoming 4-game series with the Dodgers play out?
Braves win all 4
65 votes
Braves win 3
308 votes
Series split 2-2
333 votes
Dodgers win 3
31 votes
Dodgers win all 4
10 votes

747 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  79 comments

Comments

:)

Can’t wait to go to Saturday’s game!

I'm going to Sunday's!

I’m going to Wednesday’s and Thursday’s against the DBacks. I CANT WAIT.

I don't care what Selig or the books say

Gallarga pitched a perfect game. I’m not letting an ump take away his accomplishment in my eyes, and he shouldn’t either. Poor kid…

I saw today that Selig can reverse the call.

If he has the authority and doesnt do it, he should be considered crimanally negligent.

Selig is an asshat. Did anyone else see where the governor of Michigan issued a proclamation stating that he had pitched a perfect game?

My prediction

we win 3 of 4. Heyward will hit a walk off grand slam in one game. (Yes he can)

More seriously, I’m calling him hitting 3 home runs as he busts out of his slump

I think you are forgetting about Colorado

That’s the best team in the National League. They are loaded.

There’s no “best team” in the NL.

What about Cincy and St. Louis?

Not sure I agree that the Braves or the Dodgers is a better team than either the Reds or the Cards.

Like I said, there’s no best team in the NL. There’s about 7 teams and they’re basically all the same.

The Reds starting rotation is average at best

If they keep pitching the way they have, St Louis will win the division easily. In fact, the Cubs are a better team if Aramis Ramirez remembers how to swing a bat.

agree about the reds starters

leake is good, but the rest are OK. i don’t think reds starters will keep this up, even after volquez comes back from PED suspension.

I think Cueto is really good & can keep it up
Cinn

Has also played a huge number of games in their division (like 32 of their 54). They are 10 games over 500 in the division and even elsewhere. This will even out once they play more NL east and NL west teams, where competition is much better.

Colorado is loaded, yes.

But healthy? No. If they get healthy in time, they might be the best.

I actually don’t like the Dodgers that much. I think they’ll contend, but I don’t see them going anywhere in the playoffs if they do make it. Kershaw walks too many guys and Billingsley is really up and down. Their hitters outside of the 3 OFs are not very good, either.

Personally, I think St. Louis has the best team overall, but I could see any of about 7 teams ending up with the best record.

rockies have no starting pitching depth

aside from ubaldo, noone else is “very good” or “great.” but yea, they can mash.

Jhoulys Chacin looks like a keeper

but I get your point. Still, how many rotations have that many “very good” to “great” guys? And doesn’t Ubaldo count for like 2 or 3?

I watch the Rockies play everyday and they are certainly not the best team in the National League.

Other than Jimenez, that rotation is pretty thin, even with them winning lately. Hammel is the model of inconsistency, Francis had two good starts followed by two poor ones, and Cook is being hit fairly often. Chacin started hot when he got put into the rotation, but has gotten pounded lately.

Their bullpen has been quite amazing, considering the injuries and the fact that Betancourt’s been as bad as he’s been.

Offensively, they have had their ups and downs. CarGO, Tulo and Olivo have been up, Ianetta and Fowler have been really down (as in minor leagues down). Seth Smith has started to come into his own, but platoon-mate Spillborghs struggles. Stewart and Hawpe have been pretty good, Barmes is usually pretty bad (tho he has a knack for coming thru with runners on).

Defensively, they’re pretty friggin’ solid.

All-in-all, this points to an above average team, but not anywhere near the best in the NL.

They certainly have some potential, but they’re not playing up to even their own expectations yet. To call them the best team in the NL at this point of the season is laughable.

-C

also

it looks like Todd Helton caught chipperjones-itis

Yeah, their seasons parallel pretty well right now.

To be fair, I think both will pick it up eventually, but it’s also apparent that their glory days are in the past. There is at least some regression occurring…

-C

Has it always been BarMes?

cause I’ve always thought it had an n.

Definitely an m, tho I agree it’s rather ninja in its placement.

Their nickname for him is Bar-Mee.

-C

I like this, a lot!

Only Jason Heyward can hit a walkoff home run in a road game.

Heyward will hit a walkoff 5 run homer.

Once again I failed in the reply. Sorry CalBravesFan.
Jason Heyward

forgives you

Should be a good series.

I wonder if Bobby will rest Heyward against Kershaw. He hasnt had an off day in a while

Yes…even Superman needs a day off now and then.

He needs one

at some point in this series.

I've been waiting for this series preview

just to comment on how much I love the SportsSouth ads for the trip to LA.

“Heyward Goes to Hollywood” – in all the glorious granduer and the LA lights – genius

I hope his, and the teams, performance is worthy of such a catchey ad that will have me staying up til 1 AM fromt the east coast tonight!

I personally thought it should have been “Heyward goes Hollywood” and just get rid of the pesky “to” anyway…. then again, if he has a bomb ass series, I’m SURE someone around the media will bust out “Heyward GOES HOLLYWOOD out on his first trip West…. more to come on horrible gay nascar sportscenter”

I’ve waited all day for this preview. I enjoyed it a lot. (But I wish you were in a different time zone……..)

Important series

With the exception of Philly and Cincy, the Braves benefited from a May schedule loaded with average to below average to really bad teams. This trip will be a good barometer of where the Braves really stand.

This is a great opportunity for the Braves to position themselves as the best team in the league. Go Bravos!

We will only win 1

I don’t like the pitching match-ups at all, Game 4 is really the only one that favors us.

are you doubting

the dragon slayer aka KK? the dragon slayer does not appreciate doubters.

Kk hasn't slayed any dragons

Since the days of people wearing swords and chastity betls on a daily basis. Poverty was at an all time high as people paid for products with wooden nickels and ate with their wooden. If anyone the dragons should be feasting on the KK there’s be minimal to no slaying this year. But lest yet ye never forget and forever more discuss the miracle in Atlanta last July.

Kk hasn't slayed any dragons

Since the days of swords and chastity belts. Poverty was at an all time high as people paid for products with wooden nickels and ate with their woodenteeth. If anyone: the dragons should be feasting on the factthere’s be minimal to no slaying of dragons this year. But lest ye never forget and forever more discuss the miracle in Atlanta last July.

if we only win one

then PLEASE let it be tonight so we can have a 9-game winning streak less than 2 months after a 9-game losing streak.

Pitching match-ups be damned, there is someone who disagrees...

I think we’ll split the series. A friend of mine (who is a Dodgers fan) and myself have been following how close the records between the two teams have been for about a month and a half now. They’re clearly trying to be RECORD TWINZ this season, so I’d like to keep it that way!

I’m really looking forward to this series, regardless. The Dodgers make me nervous (especially in LA), but it should be a great matchup.

the Dodgers' run differential

is at a measly 9, and they have a pythag W-L of 27-26. Their third-order W-L (which takes strength of schedule into account) is about the same at 26.8 – 26.2. These numbers say the Dodgers might be playing a bit over their heads, since they are winning a lot of close games (11-5 in 1-run games) and losing a bunch of blowouts (4-8 in 5 run blowouts).

The Braves, meanwhile, excel in blowouts (12-6 in 5+ run blowouts) and aren’t bad in 1-run games (9-7).

This will be a fun series to watch, and should be showcase a lot of good pitching.

+1

I was right about to make this point, but you beat me to it. I think the Braves are a better team than the Dodgers right now.

Of course, playing in LA, a split would be absolutely acceptable.

There's something wrong with me.

I don’t hate Selig. I hate what happened in the game yesterday, but you can’t selectively change umpire rulings just because of the incredibly bad timing of a particular call. Would you want it changed if it had happened in the first inning, or the fifth, or any other time in the game? I think we’ve all seen calls a lot worse than that one, some of them in games that were crucial as to who won championships. The only possible response is to use this as another argument for instant replay, which is legitimate, if that’s the way you want to go. You can’t, however, pick one call in the long history of baseball, and change it.

Why can't you change one call?

The official scorer does it all the freaking time. How many no-hitters have been decided by some random scorer saying a clear hit was an “error”?

And besides, if the umpire comes out and admits that the call was wrong and that it should be changed, why not change it? Shouldn’t the record reflect what actually occurred on the field? I don’t understand the resistance to change when the change is clearly for the better. If you make a bookkeeping error, you correct it as soon as you realize the error. You don’t go ahead and file your taxes with the incorrect information.

Exactly.

This Giamattian moonshine about the game being perfect and immutable turns my stomach.

Official scorers change calls like that routinely. Even apart from that, Remember Andy Hawkins’ no hitter? How about Pedro Martinez’s perfect game? The one Harvey Haddix threw in ‘59? They existed once in the record books. Now they don’t.

Every argument that I’ve heard or read against this is either nonsense about “the human element” or some variation of the “you can’t open up that can of worms because where does it stop?”, which is equally bogus. This is so much more clear cut than anything of it’s kind that it lends itself to the simplest and most direct solution: certify that he threw a perfect game for posterity’s sake.

Everybody, and I mean everybody, agrees that Joyce (who is, parenthetically, one of the best umpires in the game and a major standup guy for his handling of this affair) missed the call. That game should have been over right there. The fact that there was no further action except for the next guy making an out makes this even easier. If the Indians had started a rally, this would all be moot. That’s not what happened.

At an absolute minimum, the offical scorer should change the call on that play to an error, on Galarraga or Cabrerra, it doesn’t really matter which, and get him the relative booby prioze of a no hitter.

I don't agree...

that it’s “so much more clear cut than anything of its kind”, and maybe you can explain why the argument is so “bogus” and just “nonsense” instead of just declaring it to be so.

since the events that occurred ended with the next hitter why not just change the ending. My thinking is you just erase the last hitter and change the hit to an out (im sure he wouldnt care) mark it as a perfect game and get on with life happily.

Then lets put replay on this shit. Oh no a game will last 10-15 more minutes… I’m sure the advertisers and networks will cry more people are watching longer.

IMO, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that line of reasoning.

reply fail

to sddbaker

I'm thinking a split

The pitching matchups are all close and the teams are fairly evenly matched. I like our chances a bit better in games 1 and 4, and the Dodgers’ a bit better in games 2 and 3, but really any of them could go either way.

Winning 3/4 would be fan-freaking-tastic.

We should've swept them in last year in LA

if not for a Soriano meltdown in the 9th capped by a Ethier walkoff 3 run HR

Quiet you! I don’t wanna think about that.

I do remember KJ’s HR in like the 13th inning though.

yeaaaaa

i remember KJ’s shot. i also remember yunel’s robbing kemp up the middle to end the game. i think it was the same game, actually…

I actually think it was the next night. Kemp didn’t even run hard! That talented fool.

I'm trying to forget

by looking at the boxscores and seeing FUGA’s name 3rd in the order in 3 of those games, but we won those games. I don’t know how to feel.

Imagine if...

Furcal had actually signed with us last offseason and was our starting 2B right now. Where would Prado be? More importantly, where would the Braves be??

Man

I am so glad that signing didn’t go through. Who knows what would have happened, but it wouldn’t have been good. Not that Furcal is a bad player, but he’s injured a lot and we had and have better, cheaper options.

Lineup (Heyward is 3rd):

Nitram
Imhotep
The Jay Hey Kid
Heap
POWAH
Bulldozer
Fucknuts
Nasty Nate
Dragon Slayer

Jk...

Crabs Madallion is 9th, not KK.

lolz

@ “Imhotep” and “Fucknuts!”

Shouldn’t Hinske be ‘Plow’ instead of ‘Bulldozer’?

/nods approvingly

Mr. Plow, that's my name...

that name again is Mr. Plow.

I like Smoltz's name for him

“The Big Donkey”

That’s Adam Dunn’s nickname already

Coming from a locker room...

I’d be hesitant to ask why, although TheLetter2 might be curious.

i love fucknuts, people should lay off him… hahaha j/k

who the hell voted that the Dodgers will win 4??!

Trolls!

It's 7:34 pm in the East and I'm in need of baseball.

Sorry, I had to post something – 10pm is a long time from now.

;-)

Who's up for watching Milwaukee/Florida game with me?

:|

NC, take deep breaths. Remember there’s twelve steps… ;-)

I doubt I'll be able stay up for the game, but allow me this...

…as a man who is both fond of the Braves and a diehard Giants fan:

Holy living hell, I hate the Dodgers.

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