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Talking Chop

Thoughts about the Braves on a Friday

After all these years, does Bobby have any more tricks up his sleeve to get these guys to play better baseball.

Greg Fiume - Getty Images

After all these years, does Bobby have any more tricks up his sleeve to get these guys to play better baseball.

I wrote some thoughts down last week in a post, and today seemed like a good time to crank some more out. Perhaps this will turn into a regular thing. The first thought on my mind is of course the complete offensive ineptitude of the Braves offense... not a hard thought to conjure up. Here we are a week into May and we still have three key players hitting below the Mendoza line.

With Jason Heyward on the mend that means every outfielder we're putting out there is hitting below .200. The outfield is where you're supposed to stick your big bats, your power guys. Nate McLouth, Matt Diaz, and Melky Cabrera have a combined 2 homeruns and 15 RBI. That's also the exact numbers for Troy Glaus, so as bad as Troy has been, he's still out producing all outfielders not named Heyward.

Is there help to be found anywhere? Would signing someone like Jermaine Dye work, or would he be Garret Anderson version 2.0. Many people point to Dye's late season swoon last year as proof that he's done, but like some players perhaps a return to his original organization would rejuvenate him somehow. Odds are that wouldn't work out for a number of reasons, least of all being that Dye is still asking for a salary north of $3 million.

Also, clear your mind of any chance of Jordan Schafer helping out. He needs to have a year in the minors, and short of seeing him for a cup of coffee in September, or in case of injury, we won't see him in Atlanta this year. With his propensity for strikeouts, he likely wouldn't be the solution either. There's no one else in the minors for the Braves who could help out this year, unless one of those journeymen at triple-A have a fluke year.

The hardest part of all this is that we have to play the waiting game. There are so many hitters who are not hitting, that replacing just one of them likely wouldn't solve anything. We have to be patient and wait for these guys to come around like we know they can. None of these players are .200 hitters, far from it, so eventually one has to think that they will figure things out and return to form. This is easier said than done, and right now there is a lot of tape that opposing pitchers can watch of ways to dominate the Braves hitters.

The game before Heyward got injured, he was intentionally walked for the first time in his Major League career. This walk came one at-bat after he had hit a homerun, and came with a runner on second base. The following batter, Melky Cabrera, promptly made an out. If I was an opposing team's manager, there's no way I'd be throwing to Heyward with runners in scoring position and a base open. Here's a fun stat:  Jason Heyward has a higher percentage of RBIs for his team than any other player in baseball. Almost one-fourth of the RBIs on the Braves belong to Heyward. I know I called Martin Prado the April hitting MVP for the Braves last week, but I may need to take that back and replace Prado with Heyward. At least at this point, there's no doubt that Heyward has been by far the most valuable hitter on the Braves.

As for the other hitters; wait and see, that's all we've got right now.

At first blush one might be a bit mystified as to why Kris Medlen was chosen to fill in for Jair Jurrjens over Jonny Venters. Saturday's spot-start will be against the Phillies who have three key left-handed hitters who would likely be rendered less effective by Venters, but Meds is actually far more effective against left-handed hitters (.179 batting average against) than against right-handed hitters (.323 BAA) in his career. With Medlen being the more experienced Major Leaguer, that will help him be more prepared for this spot start and will leave an additional lefty in the bullpen to neutralize the middle of the Philly order late in the game.

The Braves may then choose to skip Medlen the following Thursday because of an off-day in the schedule, but if they don't choose to skip him he could make another start against the Diamondbacks on the 14th, which has a lineup dominated by left-handed hitters.

The script for this year is eerily similar to last year; good pitching, but no hitting early in the season. Somehow the team found their way out of their hitting morass last year, unfortunately it was a little too late. I'm starting to get worried about how they are going to find their way out of it this year.

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Comments

I disagree about Schafer

I think he could be ready to come up and help by late June/early July. He certainly has more to offer than Melky or Mclouth at thispoint….

debatable

Better defense than Nate, Diaz and possibly Melky.
Better speed than all 3.
Decent OBP

If he proves he’s healthy and hits well at AAA and Melky and McLouth still stink in June/July, then there’s no reason not to call him up. If he gets on base and hits for power, you can live with a lot of strikeouts. I would rather have had strikeouts last night in the 8th and 9th than double plays.

Lumping McLouth and Melky into the same sentence like that does a tremendous disservice to Nate.

somehow = trades & demotions

It wasn’t “somehow” that the team turned it around on offense last year. Wren made moves to get the terrible hitters off the team and bring in better ones. It’s too early for that this year and like you said the Braves will have to just suck it up and try to hit more like their career averages, but eventually (late June and certainly July) there will be moves to be made. All they need to do is stay within striking distance of the playoffs until then (6 games back or closer maybe).

The hardest part of all this is that we have to play the waiting game.

The sooner more people realize that this is the sad and unfortunate truth, the better.

If some perspective helps

I suggest everyone go read the following article:

http://www.sbnation.com/2010/5/6/1460833/five-numbers-mlb-math-trends

Nice piece on a hand-picked selection of way-out-of-whack stats that have been put up in the first month+. Braves aren’t the only team that is scuffling, and some of the teams that are awesome now are unsustainably awesome.

The season is 162 games long. We’ve played 28. Plenty of time to get things righted without blowing the whole thing up.

Ouch

“Platoon of Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans”

I cringed thinking about that.

But yes, baseball is the game of averages, and on a fair enough timeline, things always rise and fall back to their means, unless it is meant to be better or worse.

case in point #1 – Francouer started with gix multi hit games out of the first 10 and was raking it. 16 hits in his first 27 ABS. He is 9 for 68 since (.132).

I loved how people kept saying that Frenchy had finally turned it around in NY, and he was going to keep hitting like that forever. I knew he’d regress back to his old self within a month, and I stated it numerous times. I know a few other people did, as well.

It’s a bit similar to all the people who keep saying the Braves will continue hitting terribly and losing the way they are now. It’s just not going to happen. The Braves hitters will get better (likely within the next month), and they will start winning.

Anyway, the point is that some people around here seem to have such a strong recency bias that they forget all about using logic and reason.

Well, baseball is the “what have you done for me lately” sport…

The nice thing is, when the turnaround happens, those of us who are advocating reason and inevitable improvement will look a lot smarter than the knee-jerk reactions we’re seeing around here.

Like me with KJ.

:)

New York fans

Are still kind of basking in the afterglow of getting Francoeur from us for relatively nothing and having him start this season that way. They’re slow on the uptake as a rule but even they’ll figure out what they got stuck with sooner or later and it won’t be pretty.

I’m waiting for someone to claim that he’s regressed because he suddenly started remembering all the stuff that TP told him, since that’s the default blame-all for his problems.

I thought he slumped because he had a rookie hitting behind him?

Hadn't heard that one.

Darling and Cohen have fallen hard for Ike Davis and Jeff is sort of yesterday’s news for them, now, except as a cudgel to hit the Braves over the head with from time to time.

Jeffy might not react well to a rookie getting more attention than him. Who will he blame, cause you know he’ll run that mouth and blame somebody.

Well, that is what Jeff said last year when he had Schafer hitting behind him.

Ah, yeah

I remember, now.

By that point, I usually didn’t hear much of what was said by the announcers when Jeff came up. The blood pressure was thundering in my brain as he popped up on the first pitch, yet again.

Most of the folks on AA know the type of hitter he is. They’re counting down until implosion.

At least that early season spurt...

even if he struggled and returned to the French we’re all so familiar with the rest of the way, might just be enough to convince Minaya to offer arb and keep him around. Maybe even sign him to a long term extension.

The best part, is that for most of our guys to get their averages to level out, they will have to hit and slug like, REALLY well pretty soon.

I was complaining on another board about how terrible the Braves were last night with the bases loaded, and a Mariners fan told me that “the Mariners have had the bases loaded with 1 out or less 7 times in a row and have scored a total of 0 runs.” At least we’re not that bad!

it’s all about perspective I see.

That is pathetic, but I wonder what “7 times in a row” means. 7 games? 7 innings? 7 total scenarios? There’s really no context

Every time the bases are loaded with 0 or 1 outs they either GIDP or just some fail until there are 2 outs. They the stat no longer applies.

I understand what that means, I was just unclear as to the context of those situations. I don’t follow the Mariners so I would have no idea if this has happened 7 games in a row or just 7 times this season.

The last seven times they have had the bases loaded with either 0 or 1 out they have failed to drive in a run. I don’t know how much simpler I can put it, ha.

I agree with gondee and royhobbs

I thought about this last night after the game and came to the same conclusion. This is the 2010 Braves and we have to make due with what we have and hope we get better luck. It’s awful that we rely way too much on Heyward’s bat to get the job done. We have glaring holes on the team and there is really nothing we can do about it but wait.

Time to call Houston

We need Berkman yesterday

Well in that case

Lets just call St. Louis.

Berkman is probably more attainable....

If the Astros keep sucking as much as they are, there may be a fire sale in July.

Berkman

is 34 with declining power numbers. He will cost both money and prospects. DO NOT WANT. If we’re going to be spending money and prospects, let’s just go all-out for A-Gon, because Big Puma is not going to solve anything.

Note: I am not an advocate of blowing money and prospects, I was just making a point.

Also note: I’ll get a mop…

I wasn’t insinuating giving up much of anything for Berkman. I was just suggesting that if the Astros end up having a serious fire sale, he might could be had for cheap. Maybe for 1-2 prospects….and not top prospects.

Do you plan on ponying up the $15 mil?

rec'd

I agree 100%.
The 3 outfielders not named Heyward might not be All-Stars but they sure arent below 200 hitters. Patience is all we can do right now. The leaders in the clubhouse need to motivate everyone and stay positive but the hitting will come… once it does the Braves will go on a run and everything will seem great. Its just gonna take some time. Yunel and JJ will come back and be productive and the 3 outfielders will turn things around… not to mention our best hitter (B-Mac) is slumping as well. I not only think we will turn things around I still think we will make the playoffs.

Stay Positive Bravos

venters isn’t starting over medlen because venters flat out isn’t as good. He throws his fastball almost 90% of the time, something that just won’t work when you have to pitch multiple innings.

This team won’t turn things around with bobby at the helm for quite a while. He leaves guys in the lineup too long while they work out their struggles and so no one ever plays with a sense of urgency. This team needs some fire in them and guys need to realize they can’t just loaf around the field and expect to keep their jobs. I went to the nats game on tuesday and chipper just looks like he’s not even trying out there. That’s the kind of attitude that’s causing these guys to stay below the mendoza line.

Since you’re here strictly to complain, how about stepping in and giving some examples of what you’d do in his place? Who should he handle the situation when every outfielder is in some phase of a slump?

It's hard to light a fire under guys

When we have very few hitting prospects in the minors who are even close to major league ready. There’s really no one to replace these players with without rushing people who aren’t ready.

Oh gosh. The “fire” line again.

Agreed about Venters. Medlen has been and will be our 6th starter. He’s too good not to be. Bringing Venters into the equation is a good example of overthinking. Just pitch the best pitcher.

wasted Qlty starts

I wish Huddy would start throwing water coolers and empty the bat rack. He has had too many good starts ruined by a terrible offense. This got me thinking and he’s some interesting numbers on quality start(s) for the NL East.

Halladay – 6
Huddy – 5
Johnson – 4
Nolasco – 4
Volstad – 4
Santana – 4
Hernandez – 4
Pelfry – 3
Olsen – 3

JJ, KK, Hanson all have 2 and DLowe has 1 if interested.

I sure hope Huddy doesn’t get a bump in salary based on W’s bc he would be getting robbed.
Can we trade old man Chipper for Chipper circa ’99ish?

Avoid the tantrums Huddy...

They only lead to “freak” injuries!

Indeed.

We don’t want him punching or kicking any walls…

Actually

Huddy did throw a bit of a tantrum, and a bit of the inappropriate kind, by calling out Scott Olsen and calling him a pitcher who doesn’t really have no-hit stuff. I love Huddy to death, and it’s obvious frustration, but he was unfortunately caught behind the mic at the wrong time.

It may be unsportsman-like to say such a thing, but everyone was thinking it....

And it’s true. Olsen isn’t a guy with no-hit quality stuff. The first 7 innings of last night were a fluke, even AFTER factoring in the Braves’ offensive ineptitude.

IMO

Nobody in baseball has no-hit stuff. The last guy to have the closest was Kerry Wood, when he fanned 20 batters, and even that was a one-in-a-thousand kind of day for him. If you want a true no-hitter, strike out 27 straight batters. They’re so dependent on luck.

In essence, all no-hitters are flukes, because it requires ALL the right things to happen on one day. Like Tim Hudson in 2006 pitched a one-hitter to the Colorado Rockies, in which his no-hit bid was spoiled by of all people, the pitcher.

True nobody has no-hit stuff but there are a few that are damn near close to it. Tim Lincy, Ubaldo, Doc, and even Hanson have the quality pitching repertoire to be very difficult to hit. I agree in the end of the day, it is a matter of luck to get the actual job done. Scott Olsen was not even close to being unhittable. The Braves offense did not show up til late.

Anthony Reyes

Faced 28 batters. Lost 1-0 because the one hit was a homer to Thome. Not picked up by his offense.

The 3 ft wide and 6 ft tall strike zone last night didn’t hurt.

Huddy,

will never throw water coolers and empty the batting rack, in a childish rage. I felt really bad for him last night, but Huddy has been playing baseball long enough to know losing is part of the game. He volunteers his time and donates large amounts of his salary helping people that are “really” hurting. Huddy is a man of integrity on and off the field.

Schafer will replace.....

our lovable loser Diaz at the trade deadline. Freeman will not get the call until next season.

WTH are you calling Matty a loser? He is most definitely not close to one of those. Why wouldn’t he replace Nate or Milky Mr. Wren?

Infante

One way to beef up the offense ever so slightly is to make sure Infante is playing every day upon Heyward’s and Escobar’s return to the lineup. Play him in LF and accept he isn’t going to win any Gold Gloves. Get some freakin hits in the lineup. Melky is what he is, and Diaz, now that he is slumping against LHP is an average at best baseball player. Using Infante every day is a start, in my opinion.

Either Infante or Hinske.

One of those two should be in the lineup every single game.

I definitely want to see more Hinske.

+1

 I agree with putting Infante in the outfield to get him consitant AB’s. If Glaus doesn’t work out his issues then put Hinske at first.

What issues does he need to work out still? Maybe hit for power, while maintaining good contact? But if that’s the only issue, replacing him with Infante wouldn’t help any. Infante doesn’t have much power. Whereas, Glaus definitely has the amazing singles POWAH!

This.

Glaus hits .250 for his career…he’s not that far off. He’s walking a ton, the only thing that’s missing is the XBHs. They will come, the guy didn’t play all of last year.

Also Glaus is 2nd on the tem in RBI's with 15,

Heyward is 1st with 26.

Many moons ago...

This was my first exposure to the “fail” meme. I laughed my ass off then, and I still do today. I love this picture.

I agree Hinske should get more ABs, but I don’t think either are 150 game players.

75 games each...

I’d say that’s reasonable.

Not sure what’s going on with Diaz against LHP, but one way to fix it is by not putting pressure on him to hit RHP. Play Infante against RHP and Diaz against LHP until it’s proven that Diaz isn’t going to hit anyHP. That would keep Infante from having to go 140-150 games. I would be just as fine with platooning Infante/ Hinske and letting Diaz do the pinch hitting.

I think you mean Hinske and Diaz splitting. Omar right now is needed at short.

Hrmmm....

What about a Diaz/Hinske platoon in LF and a McLouth/Cabrera platoon in CF?

I love Matty D, but until he starts hitting, I think platooning him with Hinske is a great idea. That still leaves us with a very good bat on the bench for a late sub against a LOOGY.
 
The Nate/Melky platoon is an interesting idea. I’d have to look at their splits to see if it makes sense to me.

McLouth looks good in the box, I think he needs all the ABs he can get. Does Melky against LHP really give us that much or an upgrade?

McLouth looks good in the box (aside from the baffling amount of strike outs looking)

Sorry, meant to include that.

Plus Nate is better on D,

imo.

right….my scenario started with once Heyward and Escobar return to the lineup, Infante should be playing every day, which I think should be in LF.

There is a heavy dose of Pendletonitis making its rounds. Loved him as a player but he sucks as a hitting coach. McCann looks like the latest casualty. Hell he was hitting better when he couldn’t see.

I'm not a fan of TP, but that's a ridiculous statement.

McCann has made it clear that, just like Chipper, he seeks his batting advice from his father.

nate has come on a little recently...

the big problem… where are the HRs? once bMac comes around everything will be fine.

we’ve got a lot of guys that people say “have been coming on recently” after 2 or 3 decent games. The problem with this team is no one can stay on an extended hot streak. Chipper, Heap, Nate, Melky, Glause…all these guys are capable of having a good few games, but up to this point in the season no one on this team other than Heyward and Prado has proven they can hit anywhere near consistently. We have time to get it right, but not much. It’s almost time to hit the panic button…

no one on this team other than Heyward and Prado has proven they can hit anywhere near consistently.

You can say that about every single team in MLB – just replace the Heyward and Prado part with the other team’s best hitters

Glaus is 3rd in hits with 21,

Heyward 2nd with 25, Prado first with 37. I don’t think is as big of a problem as some say.

All we’re waiting for is Glaus’ power stroke. His POWAH stroke is already there.

Blanco's hitting in the .270s in Triple A

and he has been up before

And apparently you don’t remember when he was up last time.

Blanco's ship has sailed

IMHO

I read in ESPN Mag that PIT wanted Heyward or Hanson in the McLouth trade. I can only imagine how terrible it would have been had we included one of them in the trade. My god, I don’t even want to think about it.

Wren would have been killed if that happened.

Wren would have been killed if that happened. hung up the phone and we never would’ve got McLouth if they’d kept pressing for that deal.

FTFY

we're ok...

as long as we don’t fall behind 10+ games in the division. Sad thing is, if we don’t pick it up and start winning some series’ against some good teams (ahem, phillies) then we could be looking at a massive deficit as quickly as the next couple weeks.

Honestly

All we need is David Ecksteins grit and Brian Schneiders D and we’ll be completely fine….make it happen Frank

any chance we trade JoJo for both of them?

I say we deal McCann straight up for Schneider...

I mean, Bethancourt will be ready soon enough, plus Schneider’s D more than makes up for the drop off from McCann’s bat.

The sad reality is...

this team just isn’t good enough. We took some chances with Glaus, and Melky. No one thought Heyward would play so well. Chipper is struggling because he’s getting older. The nucleus of a good team is there. We have good young pitching, catcher, right field, short stop, and second base. If Schafer turns things around we have a good young center fielder.

My question is this… who is going to be managing this team next season?

this team just isn’t good enough

So, you back this statement up by saying:

The nucleus of a good team is there. We have good young pitching, catcher, right field, short stop, and second base.

I guess the concept of a nucleus is beyond you? I’ll say this easier to understand language. The Braves don’t have have a good team, but they’re not far away.

By not far away, do you mean if Melky, Nate, Chipper, McCann, Escobar and Diaz all start playing like they have for the past few years?

Then yes, I agree.

If our team’s offensive number level out to their career averages, this is a very, very, very good team.

I’m less worried about Chipper and McCann, but other than Heyward where has this lineup improved over last year’s team? Also, the starting pitching (so far) is about middle of the pack in the NL. That’s not a winning combination.

You are right. It is not a winning combination. But, do you know what it is? The first week of May.

No Norton and no Anderson in this lineup is an improvement.
 
Also, Jason Heyward is better than Jeff Francoeur at hitting baseballs.

Spahn and Sain and pray for rain Hudson and Hanson then hide the children.

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