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Talking Chop

Braves at Nationals Series Preview: Don't Underestimate These Guys

Quick! Let's play a game before we get into the preview. Here are the Braves' records against the other NL East teams in the last 3 years. Name team A, B, C and D:

Team A) 27-27
Team B) 33-21
Team C) 28-26
Team D) 23-31

As you can see, the Braves have dominated one team, been dominated by another and broke even with the other 2. Knowing that the Washington Nationals have won an average of 64 games the last 3 seasons, you would sure think Team B would be the Nationals.

Nope. Team B (33-21) is actually the New York Mets. Team A (27-27) is the Nationals. The Marlins are Team C and the Phillies are Team D.

Now for some math: The Nationals have won a total of 191 games the past 3 seasons. 27 of those wins have come against the Braves. That's about 14%. That's really bad considering how poorly the Natinals have played since 2007.

In other words, the Braves need to go into this upcoming series focused and ready for a fight.

Star-divide

A perfect example of the Braves struggling against the Nationals came in the last series of the 2009 season when the Braves were swept in Atlanta. Was the season pretty much over? Probably. But there's absolutely no reason to play as badly as the Braves did. If the Braves would've played up to their ability, they could've easily swept the Nationals and reached the 90-win mark for the first time since 2005. Instead, they made bonehead plays and allowed the Nats to win the final 4 games of the season. Both the 2009 and 2010 Braves teams are much more talented than the Nats --  now this 2010 team needs to play like it.

The Nationals are off to a solid start in 2010. In the off-season, their front office put an emphasis on improving their pitching and defense. The Nats improved their horrible bullpen with the acquisition of Matt Capps and development of Tyler Clippard and both have been very good so far this season. They also signed Jason Marquis, who isn't great, but he's a veteran innings eater who will be a good influence on their young pitching staff.

Another player the Nats signed cheaply in the off-season was veteran catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez. When signed, the Nats originally figured Pudge would serve as a starting catcher every few days and would be more of a clubhouse presence for all their young players. No one was expecting him to hit .400 in April. Rodriguez has been fantastic for the Nats so far and is a big reason behind their surprising start.

On offense, the Nationals have been an average bunch. They're currently 10th in the NL in team average and are tied with the Braves at 14th with only 16HRs. Surprisingly, they've hit a ton of doubles and triples, tied for 1st with 57 doubles and 11 triples. The Nats do run the bases often, as they come into the series with 24 steals in 34 attempts. Brian McCann and David Ross will need to be ready to throw behind the plate.

Pitching Matchups:

Tuesday, 7:05EST - Kenshin Kawakami vs. Livan Hernandez

Kawakami's Stat Line: 0-4  5.48ERA  21.1IP  10K/8BB  .286 opp. BA
Hernandez's State Line:
3-1  0.87ERA  31IP  10K/8BB  .176 opp. BA

Kawakami's Last Start: KK was banged up a bit in his last start, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) in 4.1IP against St. Louis. The Braves defense and bats certainly didn't help him, but runners were on base all night.

Hernandez's Last Start: The right-handed veteran pitched 7 strong innings in Chicago, giving up just 1 run on only 6 hits and 1 walk. Livan's only defeat on the season was a tough luck 2-0 loss against Colorado.

Advantage - Hernandez

Wednesday, 7:05EST - Tommy Hanson vs. Luis Atilano

Hanson's Stat Line: 2-2  2.17ERA  29IP  33K/10BB  .217 opp. BA
Atilano's Stat Line:
2-0  2.25ERA  12IP  5BB/2K  .234 opp. BA

Hanson's Last Start: Tommy Hanson was filthy in his last start, pitching 8 strong innings of 2-run ball. Big Red showed fantastic command of his pitches last Friday night, throwing first-pitch strikes to 22 of the 28 batters he faced.

Atilano's Last Start: In his 2nd start of the season, Atilano threw 6 solid innings and allowed 2 runs on six hits. He got himself into trouble twice against the Cubs, but was able to work his way out of it.

Advantage - Hanson

Thursday, 7:05EST - Tim Hudson vs. Scott Olsen

Hudson's Stat Line: 2-1  2.87ERA
Olsen's Stat Line:
2-1  4.35ERA

Hudson's Last Start: Despite being pulled early in Saturday's game against the Astros due to heat cramps, Huddy pitched a great game allowing only 1 run in 6 2/3 innings. After allowing a run to score in the 1st inning, Tim was on cruise control the rest of the afternoon, allowing only 3 hits after the 1st.

Olsen's Last Start: Scott Olsen is currently on a 13-inning scoreless streak and 6 of those came in his last start against the Marlins. In those 6 innings against Florida, Olsen struggled with his command (3 walks, 5 hits), but was able to work out of multiple jams with clutch strikeouts and a double play.

Advantage - Hudson

Questions of the Series:

1. Will the Braves hot bats travel with the team to Washington? Or will they stay in Atlanta?

2. The Nationals have played a bit over their head in April and are 0-2 in May. Will that continue against the Braves?

3. Will Kenshin Kawakami get back on track in Washington? He was awful in April.

Go Braves!

0 recs  |  96 comments

Comments

The Nats

have seemed like Gnats the last few years — really bad ball club, but they could sure pester us and seemed to have our number and we could never really put them away. The last couple of seasons should have been Gimmes and Series Sweeps, but more often than not we’d lose not just a game here and there like you’d expect, but the entire series. They defined our “play to the opponent’s level” tendencies.

Now the Nats are much better — hope we play them a lot better this year than we have in the past. If they had our number when they were bad, they could do some real damage if we don’t focus like we would against the Phillies……

27 is 14% of 191. . .

Yeah, I’ll fix that when I get the chance. There’s a reason I’m basically failing math.

You should get some tutoring from pacgnosis....
what I don't understand is

Why is Kawakami still on this team? He has a record of 0-4 with an ERA of 5.48, now he faces a pitcher that’s 3-1 with an ERA of 0.38 that’s an easy win for the Nats

Well,

Let’s just go ahead and skip this game then, move on to Wednesday’s matchup.

I'd rather skip KK's start

not the game

because he posted a sub 4.00 ERA

out of the 5th rotation spot. I am not trying to be antagonistic, but I really don’t understand why folks hate on KK so much. Sure, he isn’t an ace, but he was rather solid last season after a slow April, and I fully expect him to do the same this season.

I don't hate him, it's just that he blew leads so many times last year

that really made me mad

Its easy to blow a lead when that lead is usually 1 run. The man got zero run support last year, and the trend continues this year.

Lol…no he didn’t.

You are making yourself look really stupid right now, so just drop it.

what the heck

how many 5th starters do you know that can protect a one run lead.

most of them are in the AL

Really? ERA and W-L?

Please, just stop. Let’s all pretend this never happened.

Because he’s pitched three of four starts on the road and the home start was against Colorado. Because even if ERA was a good indicator of actual value of a pitcher it takes more than 4 starts for it to stabilize. And the only thing i’ll say about a pitchers win-loss record is Zack Greinke is 0-3. That is all.

He’s 0-4 because the Braves have scored a TOTAL of FIVE runs in Kawakami’s starts. A pitcher can’t win if he doesn’t have run support.

Still Pretty Hard to Win

When you can’t pitch past the 5th inning…regularly

Too bad KK does pitch past the 5th inning and into the 6th…regularly.

KK's pitching....

Monkey playing with hand grenades

Your analysis of KK’s pitching…

Retarded.

......

…….

it's worse than that

of the five runs scored in KK’s starts, only three of them were scored when KK was on the mound. that’s 3 runs in 21.1 innings. pathetic.

Why is he still on the team?

A) He’s not as bad as his numbers have indicated. He had some tough luck last year. This year, he’s had his usual tough luck + being uncharacteristically shaky at times. That will improve on both fronts. Overall, he’s one of the best #5 starters in baseball.

B) You’d have the team cut him and just eat his salary? If not, which team do you propose would be willing to trade for him? And what would those trade terms be?

KK is a good pitcher, look at his numbers last year. If he goes 6 innings with 2 or 3 runs tonight, then that is a good start for him.

He is unlucky and faces a lot of aces. I doubt livan will be this good all season, we’ll get some runs tonight.

I predict KK goes 7 innings 2 run, 5 hits, 3 walks. 19 SO.

jk about the SO

We know.

He will have 21 SO in 63 pitches.

Pffttttt....

He’ll have 27 SO in 27 pitches. ML record.

Probably throw 120 pitches in the 1st inning

at minimum

man did I ster up a debate

Stir?

Eh, pretty obvious that he’s 12.

HEY WATCH IT! }:(

I’M 17 AND I WAS HAVING A BAD DAY!

In four starts, KK has faced two aces, one pitcher that had a 15+ scoreless inning streak going, and a pitcher that had a era below two. He hasn’t gone deeper than six innings in any of his starts ,but the most runs he has given up is four. He is our FIFTH starter and the offense continues to not give him any run support.

Please tell me this isn’t a legit comment. Just a really lazy troll, perhaps?

Nyjer Morgan

Keep him off the bases and don’t throw fastballs down the middle to Dunn, and the Braves should do pretty good against Washington.

I wouldn’t mind seeing Nyjer Morgan in a Braves uniform. He’s the guy that replaced Nate McLouth in Pittsburgh after the Pirates traded him. Maybe we should have held out…

I think they replaced Nate with McCutchen.

I think they are happy with that upgrade.

Are you sure they didn’t replace McLouth with Morgan and Morgan with McCutchen? It was like the Pittsburgh House of Deal over there for a while. Whatever the case, I still wouldn’t mind seeing Morgan here.

Nate was traded on June 4 – the same day that McCutchen made his first start. Morgan did not replace Nate.

I think Morgan was in LF for them.

Oh, OK. Like I said, so many guys leaving PIT, it’s hard to keep track…

Morgan’s not as great a base stealer as you might think. Unfortunately you don’t have to be great to steal on Heap.

Is Atilano the guy we traded for Surhoff?

Compensation pick

When the Braves picked up Tom Glavine back from the Mets

Oh, I was thinking about Luis Rivera…

The pick we gave up for Glavine is Ike Davis...

Atilano was dealt for Daryl Ward.

The Nationals/Expos have always been a pain in the ass. You almost have to admire them for that.

This

For some reason we played down to their level. I hope this season we go in with some confidence, and continue our winning streak! Go Braves!

SP matchups

I feel good about Tommy & Timmy. Maybe we could tell KK he’s going against Halladay.

Had an awesome dream the other night

Smoltz’s Beard and I were drinking at the bar in CF at Nationals Park during the game, and out of the corner of my eye, I keep noticing a cute brunette looking bored and miserable, fresh after breaking up with her lameduck boyfriend, and she’s looking over at me. I have a stressful decision to make, because Beard bought the first round and I’m obligated to reciprocate, but I really want to buy a beer for the brunette and go talk to her, and I only have enough cash left to get two.

Eventually, I say screw it, and head off to the bar, and bring back two Heinekens, and when I come back to the table, the brunette is already there waiting for me, and Beard is face down, passed out on the table drunk, while the soft latin beat from the Dos Equis commercials is playing

And then the thunder and lightning woke my dog up which in turn woke me up, the power went out, and I ended up oversleeping in the end.

Don’t buy drinks for a girl you haven’t met, it demonstrates low value. Just go talk to her.

lol

This is coming from someone with an odd fascination/obsession with the Insane Clown Posse

haha

is ICP even around anymore? I figured that they had disappeared long ago…

Eminem had em’ 187’d.

They just released a new album.

MAGNETS! HOW DO THEY WORK!?

F’N rainbows, after it rains…

Hitch did it.

Simpsons did it

haha, I can’t believe you changed your avatar to ICP

So where did you want to meet tomorrow evening?

I wish

I were back in DC for this series.

Don’t overestimate them either, they still suck. SP and bullpen are both atrocious.

They still lead us by 2 games & have a winning record. So they don’t suck yet.

"Don't underestimate these guys"...

how could we possible underestimate a team that is currently better?

Define "better"

They have a better record (slightly), but that absolutely does not mean that they are actually better, even “currently”. Strength of schedule, small sample size, luck, etc, etc.

First,

tthe Nats schedule isn’t that much different from ours if anything they are both probably about equal. Therefore the Nats are better because there record says so right now which is why I stated “currently”, also last I checked the Nats didn’t need to beat up on the the worst team in the NL to stop a nine game losing streak. Doesn’t really matter how you want to look at it “currently” they are better so again how are WE underestimating THEM when it should be the other way around given the performances of every starter not named Hanson or Hudson and hitters not named McCann, Prado, or Heyward?

More people getting bent out of shape that we swept the Astros. Cool.

Well, that’s what happens when you barely beat a sucky team by a run or two…oh wait…

Who is getting bent out of shape that we swept the least talented team in baseball?

Its nice that our sucky team beat there sucky team but it doesn’t really change the fact that right now we are a sucky team and that is exactly what our record indicates. I’m not going to get excited that we beat the Astros because we should be them, it still doesn’t change the fact that we aren’t very good right now, it just means that they are worse.

The guy that voted a lower confidence rating because we swept the ’Stros.

I have a good feeling about winning this series

The last 2 games look good, in particular. I’ll really know we’re in good shape if we manage to hit Livan and give KK some run support. If we do that, we could sweep.

I’m thinking the exact same thing. This first game will be the barometer for the series. If we win it, we’ve got a good chance at a sweep. If we lose it, I think it kills some momentum and we’ll be lucky to win the other two.

Starters

It feels good to be able to look at two games (Wed – Hanson, Thur – Huddy) and feel like they are almost guarenteed wins. Granted, we need the run support, but with the way those two have been dealing lately, I feel really confident in winning this series. I have a feeling KK gets on track tonight and throws a great game, he hasn’t had the best of luck when it comes to his opponents so far ( SF vs Lincy, Col vs Ubaldo, Philly, and STL vs Jaime Garcia, who has been unhittable lately). I feel another great series coming! Go Braves!!

Anyone in the DC area going to the games? Is the Water Taxi working yet?

maybe tomorrow night, and what the hell is the water taxi?

AHHH BAD MEMORIES BAD MEMORIES

There’s always a bigger fish.

Educate yourself. We’re totally doing this in September

Ah shit, that’s right…I remember you mentioning it before. Memory fail.

Can we give the Braves players special contacts...

…where they see the Astros logo on all the Natinals player’s when they look at them?
(typo intentional)

I think we can win this series if we keep our focus and not play sloppy on defense.

I’m hoping the hitting at home this past weekend has helped the guys mentally and now the stinky funk of losing may finally be lifting.

At least we won't have Acosta around to ruin things against the Nats

He’s busy blowing games for the Muts :-)

If I recall correctly, he was particularly vulnerable to surrending HR to the Nats last year…..

Ahhhh, never mind -- he only gave up one HR

It just felt like so many……

I’m kind of confused….why is 14% that horrible?

The nats only play the braves for about 11% of their schedule.

Meaning that the Braves attributed more than their fair shares of wins to some pretty bad teams.

Okay, I thought it was closer to actual 14%. I guess that it mainly confused me that the quality of the Natinals matters, now that I think about it. The “percent of wins” thing should pretty much account for that.

I don’t remember who, but the team with the 2nd most Nationals wins was the Marlins or Mets with like 8%.

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