The Snakes are coming to town! Just before the Braves left for their 9-game road trip -- in which they rallied for a 5-and-4 record -- they swept the Astros in Atlanta. That was the battle of two last place teams in their respective divisions, and once again, as the Braves return home they conjure up another battle between two last place teams.
While the Braves have played well of late, and are only two games under .500, they still find themselves in last place in the NL East with a record of 16-and-18. The Diamondbacks are also in last place in the NL West with a 14-and-21 mark, the second-worst record in the National League, and losers of six in a row.
Unlike the Braves, the Diamondbacks have hit the ball, they just haven't thrown the ball particularly well, especially in the bullpen. The D-Backs have the worst bullpen in baseball, and I mean "the worst." Their pen ERA is an ugly 7.37, with only one reliever with an ERA under 6.00 -- the stink has been spread around to everyone. Even the closer -- if you can call him that -- Chad Qualls, has a 6.39 ERA. Certainly if the Braves can bring their patient approach home with them, and like they did in Milwaukee, take a lot of pitches and chase the starting pitcher early and get into that Arizona bullpen, then Atlanta should find a lot of come from behind or pad the lead opportunities.
If the bullpen is the D-Backs Achilles heel on the pitching side of the ball, then the strikeout is their Achilles heel on the hitting side of the ball. They lead baseball with 321 K's as a team, almost 100 more strikeouts than the Braves have as a team. With those strikeouts, though, comes a lot more power than the Braves have. While Atlanta is second to last in the NL in homeruns with 23, Arizona has almost double that number to lead the league with 44 round-trippers. The two guys leading that homerun charge are K-specialist Mark Reynolds and former Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson, each with 10 homeruns a piece.
During their 6-game losing streak they have experienced quite the power outage, but that pales in comparison to the bullpen collapse. During the last 7 days the Arizona pen has allowed 26 runs in only 16 innings. The only guy pitching well is Aaron Heilman. This series will be like a sprint to the Arizona bullpen.
The starting pitching matchups for the series are after the jump.
Game 1: Friday, 7:35pm - Ian Kennedy vs. Kenshin Kawakami
Kennedy has been the Diamondback's best starter this year, while Kawakami has been the Braves' worst. KK has pitched better of late, and after some rough early innings in his last start he settled in and pitched very well, giving us some hope that he might be coming around. Kawakami has changed his delivery by not bringing his arms over his head, a move which he hopes will help him keep a better eye on the plate and remain more consistent in his delivery.
Game 2: Saturday, 7:10pm - Rodrigo Lopez vs. Tommy Hanson
Lopez has been a decent starter for Arizona, while Hanson has been the Braves' ace. Tommy looked in complete command in his last outing while dominating the Brewers.
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35pm - Dan Haren vs. Tim Hudson
The battle of two former A's pitchers. Haren has been hittable this season and prone to big innings, but he's still a strikeout pitcher and capable of shutting any offense down. Hudson was a little wild in his last start, walking six in as many innings, but escaping jams with the help of the ground ball. It will be interesting to see if that wildness continues, or if it was just a one-time thing.
It should be a good series, and a good opportunity for the Braves to win a few more games. GO BRAVES!!!
0 recs | 142 comments
Hoping Roachy and KJ get nice receptions from the Ted faithful.
I’m also hoping they go 0 for the weekend.
UMDBHIK - May 14, 2010
i’m working on my “Miss You Kelly” sign for Saturday. I’m just psyched i don’t get to see Derek Lowe pitch 3 times in a row.
10-4 - May 14, 2010
+1
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
what exactly do you miss about kelly johnson?
was it his .260 career avg? or his .789 career OPS? oh i know! was it his 2:1 K:BB ratio?
CoxXx - May 14, 2010
OGT!
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
no, because someone might confuse it with me getting pwned.
10-4 - May 14, 2010
lol
This is probably the best comment that I have seen all week!
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
dammit.
10-4 - May 14, 2010
All of the above. And the power man, the power.
10-4 - May 14, 2010
oh my god! Cant believe i forgot the power!
CoxXx - May 14, 2010
I miss...
his hot body and sweet smile. Thanks for asking.
sddbaker - May 14, 2010
But not his musk?
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
BA-ZING
Zeus12888 - May 14, 2010
I like LaRoche and Kelly. I hope they both play well this series, but I definitely want the Braves to come out on top.
Sparhawk - May 14, 2010
KK has a “Cubbies-like Curse” going on that I do not look forward to seeing every 5th day, regardless of whose “fault” it is. He was much sharper last year. Like what’s-his-name said though (in teh KK thread) hopefully his numbers will start getting better as the season progresses.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - May 14, 2010
I believe KK will get better as the season moves along. Some players just don’t play well in cold weather, and maybe that’s KK’s kryptonite. I know I hate cold weather.
Sparhawk - May 14, 2010
it hasn't been cold in Atlanta in a month
that excuse doesn’t apply here. KK has been real bad
jaypatel - May 14, 2010
I don’t know where you’ve been but it was cold just a few days ago. It’s just been starting to get hot if you ask me within the past week or two.
Sparhawk - May 14, 2010
KK’s pitched most of his games on the road.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - May 14, 2010
He stunk
to start last year too and then was very good the rest of the year. Maybe he just needs an extra month to get going.
At least, that’s what I hope is this problem.
Jacob Peterson - May 14, 2010
But last year he stunk in April because the balls and hitters were different. Maybe he’s just a slow starter for no discernible reason. Do you have access to his month-by-month stats from Japan?
Weldon - May 14, 2010
I looked for it, couldn’t find it. Someone with a Rotoworld subscription may be able to grab it from there, tho.
His ERA in Japan during the past 5-6 years jumped back and forth from ~3.5 to low 2s every other year in Japan. If that trend were to continue, he’d finish back in the 2s this season…
Wish I could watch the game…going to have to settle on updates via mlb.com or yahoo and the open thread once I get home from work.
-C
cthabeerman - May 14, 2010
Reynolds is 3 for his last 24
KJ is 2 for his last 17 (a cold streak, who can believe it)
LaRoche is 3 for his lst 20
Some of their best hitters are coming in cold, which is never a bad thing.
ATLandUNC - May 14, 2010
KJ runs hot and cold...
with prolonged runs of almost nothing, this must be an isolated occurence. I coulda swore he was a top 3 offensive 2B in the NL.
Mr. Sanchez - May 14, 2010
Troll-bait!
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
Hungry Mr. Incredible?...
I’m cooking up some fresh soup in this here pot. I made plenty for you, and your old pal Syndrome.
Mr. Sanchez - May 14, 2010
Tires cannot defeat me!
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
I just noticed that spatula at the picture takers foot..
makes me love this pic even more now.
Mr. Sanchez - May 14, 2010
Alas, I cannot see the picture. Stupid AF servers…
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
I've used it plenty before...
toddler stiring up shit in a toilet.
Mr. Sanchez - May 14, 2010
AF servers are indeed stupid
Bonhoffer - May 14, 2010
Wowsers
Huddy has more BBs than Ks?!?
Fatvirus - May 14, 2010
A 6-walk game will do that
especially when you haven’t been striking many guys out. Once the sample sizes get larger, I’m sure that will pyche itself out.
Jacob Peterson - May 14, 2010
His pitches have seen tons of movement and I think he’s struggling with control.
I’m surprised he doesn’t have a few more K’s because of all that movement.
Sparhawk - May 14, 2010
I'm going on Sunday.
I’m super psyched about that pitching matchup, too. Hopefully the Braves can take down Haren for the sweep like they did Gallardo and the Brewers.
Jacob Peterson - May 14, 2010
sweet! I’ll look for an angry orange fish. in a braves jersey, of course
Lizziebeth - May 14, 2010
I just read this on fangraphs – perhaps someone (Pacgnosis?) can help me understand exactly what it means. I get the stats themselves, but what is the median for MLB players on each of these?
KJ’s “Values”
Batting – 28.6
Fielding – 2.8
Replacement – 68
Positional – 2.2
RAR – 95.9
WAR – 9.5
Dollars – $39.0
Salary – $1.1
As I understand this, KJ is a far above average hitter, slightly below average fielder, is not easily replaced, is worth a lot more than the average MLB 2B, and is vastly underpaid. Is that simplifying it too much? Am I way off in my interpretation?
EIther way, I wish he were still with us…Not to replace Prado, but for LF!
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
Depends on if that is for his career or just this year...
I could see the value if they used his career #s for that, but if they only use this season, they need to wait for a couple of his cold streaks to kick in. His numbers likely look a lot different mid June, before he gets hot again and does amazing in July before struggling down the stretch.
Mr. Sanchez - May 14, 2010
It’s for his career – 2009 included.
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
Interesting...
I’d agree he’s underpaid (due to arb and his past year before hitting the open market). Vastly, I wouldn’t agree. nor would I say “is worth a lot more than the average MLB 2B”. He’d be about average in my eyes as 2B are continually getting better with guys like Utley, Pedroia, Prado, Weeks, Cano, Uggla, and lots of players that can do more damage with the stick than say their counterparts of 10-20 years ago.
I will agree with you on non-tendering him though. Bad year, should have probably had one more shot. In the least if we showed others we were willing to stick him in LF with Prado at 2nd, we might have been able to finagle a package from the Royals, D Backs, or any team that was looking for a 2B this winter. The way we went about it sapped our bargaining position, as did his 2009. But I have a hard time thinking he wouldn’t have been worth at least a secondary prospect from someone if we showed teams we were committed to finding a place for him in LF should Prado keep things up as he has this year.
Mr. Sanchez - May 14, 2010
I am basing the “Vastly” part of that statement on the numbers above – worth something like $38M and getting paid $1M. Again, I am not sure exactly how those numbers translate (obviously, he isn’t worth $38M/year), so it is still a little muddy for me.
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
Those look like career totals
What you really need is the per year averages.
10 WAR over his career would be what, 2.5 WAR per year? That adds up to a slightly-above-average regular.
I think you’ve misinterpreted the “Replacement” value. That figure is based solely on playing time. It’s an adjustment that every player receives. And it’s “replacement” over a AAA-type player, not over the average MLB 2B.
He’s vastly underpaid, yes, but that’s because he’s yet to really cash in through free agency. Unfortunately for him, he’s only been a FA after his worst year. If he had been a FA after ‘07 or ’08 instead, he’d have made a boatload.
I like Kelly too, but let’s not get carried away.
Jacob Peterson - May 14, 2010
Ah, thanks. Can you explain the batting values though? I don’t really understand that one.
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
Sure.
That means he’s been 28.6 runs above an average player (at any position) over his career. Over 4 years thats about 7 runs per year, or a bit less than a win. Still, clearly an above average hitter. The fact that he plays 2B makes that even a bit more valuable.
Jacob Peterson - May 14, 2010
Isn’t the RAR what tells us that?
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
No,
RAR is runs above a AAA-level replacement player, not an average MLB-er
Jacob Peterson - May 14, 2010
sddbaker - May 14, 2010
Kelly isn’t a free agent yet. And he won’t be until 2012.
MLB salaries are divided into 3 tiers – (1) under team control (2) arbitration eligible and (3) free agents. As a general rule group (1) is grossly underpaid, earning on average $500,000 while group (3) tends to be overpaid (D. Lowe says Hi). Arbitration players are a mixed bag, but probably average out to something reasonably proportional to their contributions vs payroll.
KJ’s salary – about $2.5 million – seems on par with 2nd year arbitration player with his resume. Maybe a little short-changed.
DCP916 - May 14, 2010
I think we Win 2/3
possibly 3/3 if Kenny K can get some damned runs to work with. He’s not Halladay BUT, lol, he can compete with guys like Halladay.
WE HAVE TO GIVE HIM SOMETHING TO WORK WITH. And he has to pitch without giving up as many “mistake” right down the middle.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - May 14, 2010
win
Keeping winning series and the record and place in the standings will take care of themselves eventually.
redwards95 - May 14, 2010
Kawakami hasn't been good...
But I think it’s a toss-up for worst starter thus far between he and Lowe. Lowe’s sporting the same ERA as Kaz with a 1.61 WHIP and K/BB ratio of 1.19. And he’s 37, so it’s not likely to get much better. Though he has managed to put up a couple of one-run outings, which might give him a slight edge over Kawakami.
Biggus Rickus - May 14, 2010
Lowe looked pretty sharp in his last outing
Hanging out with Hanson, Meds, etc., is only going to help him.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - May 14, 2010
I’m excited. We had a cookout with some people from work last night, partially on the premise of watching baseball and damned if there wasn’t any on. Instead, we had to watch some other show about sweaty men in shorts passing an orange rubber ball back-and-forth. Oh, and it was in Boston or something. Must be a nothern thing.
TheLetter2 - May 14, 2010
lol +1
Zeus12888 - May 14, 2010
Heh heh heh!
Lizziebeth - May 18, 2010
Was just looking through my Braves macro folder and found this. I may never, ever get to use it again, so here’s its farewell appearance.
ATLandUNC - May 14, 2010
i support KJ until i wish
not until you wish, sir.
Jareth Cutestory - May 14, 2010
2 year olds dude
Going to the game on Saturday night. It’s my son’s first game. He’s 2 and 1/2. I’m going with a buddy and his 3 year old.
Anybody have any advice? I know all about Tooner Field…. I’m just wondering if anyone else has taken their (young) kids to a game and can pass along some tips.
So excited. It’s his first game and Big Red’s on the mound.
Fatvirus - May 14, 2010
Two words.
JUICE BOXES.
sddbaker - May 14, 2010
haha
Yeah, my wife is all concerned that I’ll forget to feed or change him. Or that I’ll lose him. That’s the biggest fear.
Fatvirus - May 14, 2010
My dad took me to a park when I was 3 and he fell asleep and I walked into a cactus. I’m still surprised my mom hasn’t killed him.
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010 via mobile
Heyward would have made that cactus bleed.
Sparhawk - May 14, 2010
A cactus?? You weren’t very smart as a child were you??
P.S. Cacti
and Arizonasuck!mvandonsel - May 14, 2010
i’ll meet up with you during batting practice, and we will use those little rugrats to haul in the biggest bounty of bp baseballs ever collected.
10-4 - May 14, 2010
lol
Smoltz's Beard - May 14, 2010
Still pissed I gave my ball from EOF to that little shit in St Louis
BraveSaluki - May 14, 2010
I'm not sure if many of you have watched
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010 via mobile
F you, iPhone.
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010 via mobile
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA!
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
I'm not sure if many of you have watched the DBacks this year
but they’re consistently inconsistent and their offense is Jeckyll and Hyde. They’re a fun team though; really young, quite a few guys no one has heard of, etc.
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010 via mobile
I’m excited to see Upton and Heyward in the same game. They may be fighting for MVPs in a few years.
ATLandUNC - May 14, 2010
Heyward > Upton
now, and in a few years.
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010
can you say overrated?
Fatvirus - May 14, 2010
They’re the kind of team to drive Joe Morgan bananas. Nothing he hates more than consistently inconsistent.
Braves are catching them at the perfect time.
UMDBHIK - May 14, 2010
yeah
but they could also break out at any time. I just hope it’s not against us. They shouldn’t though, especially with Big Red and Huddy on the mound.
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010
i can't wait to see Hanson's strike out numbers against these dbacks
he’s already mowing guys down as it is, and against a club that strikes out as often as the dbacks…
SouthernPanther - May 14, 2010
Fun news for those going Saturday
According to Carroll Rogers of the AJC there will be a protest against the Arizona Diamondbacks outside the gates Saturday:
Great.
10-4 - May 14, 2010
I heard Justin will be attempting to take KJ’s clothes off…with his teeth. Should be a good time. I want pictures if anyone goes.
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010
Get an f’n life losers.
UMDBHIK - May 14, 2010
“WE WILL DEFEAT THE DIAMONDBACKS OF ARIZONA IN THIS GAME OF SPORT AND THE VICTORY WILL PENETRATE THE MINDS AND HEARTS OF THE STATE OF ARIZONA AND MR. ALLEN SELIG WILL REMOVE HIS COMPETITION FOR THE YEAR 2011 FROM THIS EVIL STATE!”
10-4 - May 14, 2010
you're an idiot
they’re enforcing what should already be enforced, get over it.
bravesfan1047 - May 14, 2010
I think
you missed the sarcasm there.
UMDBHIK - May 14, 2010
lol
10-4 - May 14, 2010
YOU’RE AN IDIOT
Smoltz's Beard - May 14, 2010
Come on, guys…let’s stick to baseball here…
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
YOU’RE AN IDIOT
Smoltz's Beard - May 14, 2010
Damn. I should have known that you were not being serious.
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
green
10-4 - May 14, 2010
lol…you said penetrate…
mvandonsel - May 14, 2010
+1billion
Zeus12888 - May 14, 2010
great.
My thoughts exactly.
Why at a ballgame? Isn’t that where we go to take our minds off of serious issues and to relax? Heyward damnit.
Fatvirus - May 14, 2010
Hey hey! Ho ho!
This penis party’s got to go!
(repeat ad nauseum)
UMDBHIK - May 14, 2010
uh….
do what with a penis, now?
Fatvirus - May 14, 2010
ummmmmmm
Did you just quote P.C.U?!
kreese555 - May 14, 2010
Lol. I sure did.
UMDBHIK - May 14, 2010
Well, I don’t know which I’m more depressed about. You quoting it or me picking it up…Jeremy Piven is the man though, and Jon Favreau makes a nice little appearance. David Spade as the preppy asshole. Wow, I know way too much about that movie.
kreese555 - May 14, 2010
That movie was awesome. Oedipus and the Mama’s Boys. Too college radio.
UMDBHIK - May 14, 2010
Someone should show up dressed like this guy....
..to protest along with them, and get them all conflicted.
sddbaker - May 14, 2010
Someone already does, i see him at just about every game. Skinny white guy with glasses. I’m sure someone has a picture of him. He better watch out.
10-4 - May 14, 2010
hahaha...oh bobby...what a quote
“You need to have confidence and get a little swagger back,” manager Bobby Cox said.
Bobby Cox using the word swagger…hahahahah
SouthernPanther - May 14, 2010
That’s our word. He can’t say it. However, if he were to omit the “R” and say it like “Swagga” that would be ok.
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
haha
if he had said “swagga” i would literally be rolling on the floor.
SouthernPanther - May 14, 2010
Guess I got my swagga back
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpAePSP-ni4
ATLandUNC - May 14, 2010
LOL
I was about to do the same exact thing.
-C
cthabeerman - May 14, 2010
I prefer this one…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiS9-yPvBnY
mvandonsel - May 14, 2010
Or this one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yRme0C2pmI
ATLandUNC - May 14, 2010
I listen to dubstep, so the first will still be tops on my list.
-C
cthabeerman - May 14, 2010
As does anyone with a good taste in music
ATLandUNC - May 14, 2010
The only dubstep I’ve listened to is Burial.
Smoltz's Beard - May 14, 2010
+1
Burial is dope.
Datsik (one of the artists in the previous videos) was supposed to come play here recently, but that whole volcano thing prevented it from occurring. Postponed ’til later this summer.
One of the best things about living in Denver is all the dubstep/glitch hop acts coming thru. I get a heavy dose of bass music almost every weekend.
-C
cthabeerman - May 14, 2010
Was out in Bozeman Montana for a while and lots of guys like Bassnectar and Propa Tingz would come through. Always a good time.
ATLandUNC - May 14, 2010
It’s really not my type of music to be honest, but I saw that his album Untrue was tied for highest rated of 2007 on metacritic I bought it sight unseen. Glad I did, “Archangel” and “Etched Headplate” are great tracks…among others.
The album is tied with that year was also pretty good, but more of an ambient techno album.
Smoltz's Beard - May 14, 2010
is all of this brandon jones talk an attempt to lure BigJoe back?
bpk228480 - May 14, 2010
lol
Smoltz's Beard - May 14, 2010
that word is used WAYYYYYYY too much now
Mr. Sanchez - May 14, 2010
If my crude calculations are correct
KJ is on pace for a 7 WAR season.
TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect - May 14, 2010
Question:
Who would you rather have for the next 5 seasons: Heyward or Upton?
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010 via mobile
an unbiased Heyward vote right here
Smoltz's Beard - May 14, 2010
same here
Justin is an awesome dude, but he can only play the “potential” card for so long. He had a nice season last year, but I think i’d still take Heyward over him.
Only thing that’s left to be seen from Heyward is how he holds up once the dog days of summer come around, but with his frame he should be just fine.
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010
According to my fantasy team
it’s Heyward all the way. But I think J. Up has been struggling a bit so far. Sophomore slump of sorts…
kreese555 - May 14, 2010
well, this isn’t technically his 2nd year. He played 1/3 of a season in 2007, 2/3 of a season in 08 and most of a season in 09
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010
Wow, I did not realize he had been around that long. And he’s still what, 22? I think both will be perennial all-stars, and I hope Hey ends up with the better career. But I’ll be in my 40’s by the time that’s sorted out! That’s really weird to think about…
kreese555 - May 14, 2010
Good news everyone!
KK’s Groundball%, Linedrive%, and K/PA will become meaning full after this start!
Linky
TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect - May 14, 2010
Bad news nobody
GB% and K/PA are down from last season and LD% is up.
TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect - May 14, 2010
Signs point to "Beware"
The D-backs are a dangerous team that isn’t playing particularly well at the moment (remember our favorite road trip). If their pitchers get it together these could be some tough games to win.
Not running us down or building them up, but they are far more deadly than their record indicates.
skymuse - May 14, 2010
The D-backs are like a bunch of snakes trapped in a corner…pun intended.
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
But not on a plane………
UMDBHIK - May 14, 2010
the only good thing about that shitty movie is the soundtrack
bpk228480 - May 14, 2010
and Sam “The Man” Jackson….
EricGreggWasPaidOff - May 14, 2010
“I’m sick and tired of these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane”
bpk228480 - May 14, 2010
Signs point to "Beware"
As in Koko Beware?
Nova Scotia Steve - May 14, 2010
Can Anyone please tell me
How to post images??
Nova Scotia Steve - May 14, 2010
The little picture of a tree in the “Post a reply” box – click on it. You may have to “Temporarily allow scripted windows.” Once you do that, simply paste the link to the photo, and viola, you have a picture.
Hint: When posting pictures, it is always a good idea to “Preview” your post before posting it – that way, you can avoid the always entertaining “Pic FAIL” responses.
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
“EVERYONE POINT AND LAUGH!!!”
Scott Coleman - May 14, 2010
Exactly.
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
Picture hosting on this site blows!!! It sucks and always will!!! RAR!! !One
-British Columbia Chad
Rhyno18 - May 14, 2010
The only way we dont sweep this series
is if Kennedy and Haren throw complete game shut outs. Once one of their starters is out of the game the flood gates WILL open
drumzalicious - May 14, 2010
this will be an interesting series
bestbostonsports - May 14, 2010
mastermike - May 14, 2010
EVERYONE POINT AND LAUGH!!!
justincredubil02 - May 14, 2010
i'm not gonna lie
i hope the braves sweep the hell outta the dBacks, but
i wan’t KJ to hit a HR in each game
and maybe Roachy can have one too.
Jareth Cutestory - May 14, 2010
i hate my cable provider.
they no longer do braves vision for peach tree games. now i have to find somewhere with directv
Jareth Cutestory - May 14, 2010
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