Justin Sullivan - Getty Images
It was a beautiful day in San Francicso, as long as you weren't a Braves fan. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Look, I'm not going to pretend like that game didn't suck. It did. Any time your team loses after leading 4-2 in the ninth, or wastes a dominant pitching performance, or fails repeatedly in the clutch, it sucks. And having a home plate ump with a wacky strike zone and who seems to have forgotten the part of the rulebook dealing with "interference" doesn't help either. But it was just one game, and there were a good number of positives to come out of it. To wit:
Tim Hudson pitched great, facing the minimum through six innings while giving up only 2 baserunners (1 hit and 1 reached-on-error), both of whom were immediately erased in double plays. He tired a bit in the seventh, giving up a single to Aaron Rowand and a double to Albert Pujols Edgar Renteria to lead off the inning, which set up two straight RBI groundouts to get the Giants on the board. I thought it was an odd decision to concede those two runs when we only had 3, but you've got to hand it to the Giants for their good situational hitting there. They took what we gave them. Hudson's final line was: 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K, and 77 pitches (52 strikes). His WPA (Win Probability Added) was 0.177, which means he improved our chances of winning by about 18%. It was the best start of the year for an Atlanta hurler, bar none.
(More positives after the jump)
Another positive was the all-around play of Martin Prado, who was practically always on base, ending up 3/4 with 3 BBs and 2 runs. Prado, who now has a sweet line of .627 AVG / .700 OBP / .750 SLG, also made a stellar defensive play at 3B. His WPA for the game was 0.168. Probably the next biggest bright spot on offense was Matt Diaz, who went 2/3 and drove in 2 runs before being lifted in a defensive switch. The catcher tandem of Ross and McCann was quite solid as well, going 2/5 with a bases-loaded walk by Ross to drive in a run. Troy Glaus also had 2 hits, a run, and an RBI. Even Melky Cabrera was on base 3 times with a hit and 2 walks.
The Braves had Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez and the numerous Giants relievers on edge all night. Sanchez lasted only 4.1 IP, giving up 3 ER, 7 H, and 2 BB, though he did get 6 strikeouts. Overall, the offense managed to get 20 guys on base, which is pretty good even for a 13-inning game. They couldn't get enough of those guys in, but at least they weren't dominated.
As for the relievers, we got excellent scoreless frames from Saito, O'Flaherty, and Moylan. Medlen also pitched very well, though he was victimized by some bad luck and bad umpiring. Braves pitchers only walked 1 batter all night--I know the Giants are free-swingers, but that's still impressive. Given that Wagner won't be serving up game-tying homers regularly (I hope), our pen sure is looking good. By the way, here are our numbers in relief this year, counting today's game: 16.1 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 10 H, 2 BB, 19 K, and a sparkling 1.10 ERA. That'll work.
So, what I'd like everyone to do is take a deep breath, focus on all those positives, and try to forget (or at least get over) Renteria's 2-run blast in the 9th, the Eric-Gregg-like strike zone on Heyward's 4th strikeout (heck, forget Heyward's other 3 strikeouts too, while you're at it), the odd decision to pinch-hit Conrad with the bases loaded and 1 out, and all the other choke jobs, double plays, bad calls, and bloop hits. OK, now. Deep breath.
There. Does that feel better?
No? Well, at least there's always tomorrow. And that's a beautiful thing.
Tonight's MVP (aside from Tim Tschida): Edgar Renteria-- 3/5, game-tying HR, 0.515 WPA
Tonight's LVP: Billy Wagner-- 1 IP, 2 ER, -0.418 WPA
Tonight's MVPILE (MVP In a Losing Effort): Tim Hudson
Tonight's Clutch Play: Renteria's 2-run HR in the 9th (duh), 0.465 WPA
0 recs | 66 comments
The players have made this offense out to be a lot better then it actually is.
It’s not horrible, but it’s certainly not as great as they seem to think it is.
Erin6 - April 9, 2010
Well at least I found a head to put on the “ugly” body.
That was pathetic today. We should have won by at least 3.
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010 via mobile
Happy thoughts, Scott. Happy thoughts.
Jacob Peterson - April 9, 2010
Sorry
Go Braves! If we win tomorrow, we won 3 out
of 5, which puts us on pace for 90 wins.
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010 via mobile
Actually
winning 3 out of every 5 games puts a team on pace to win about 97 ;)
SmithnCompany - April 9, 2010
freakin Chipper
i just trusted that he could do basic math. you’re right, it’s 97
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010
i like your style..
half full, whatever you want to call it.no panicking
bluelg - April 10, 2010
I'm starting to think last year
jimmontg - April 9, 2010
HEY! JIMBO
What? Are you going to start commenting on here again? You said you didn’t like Bobby Cox coming back. Don’t worry about Jimmontg, he bought season tix again like he always does and if Heyward doesn’t work out he’ll be cussing by July. We are friends and you all might want to be freindly with him. His tix are behind 1st plate 3 rows back, and he has 4 of them. He’s a pip.
not2wired - April 9, 2010
Woah. I aint seen that signature in a long time.
!Vive la Francoeur! - April 9, 2010
Which One?
jimmontg - April 9, 2010
Yours.
!Vive la Francoeur! - April 9, 2010
I'm glad you noticed. Please pardon my pessimstic outlook.
I just think we ought to do better with what we have. Plus, Chipper’s already out for 3 games. Sorry I’m worried.
jimmontg - April 9, 2010
Ehh, while I disagree with your knee-jerk response to our inept offense, I do realize that it is just that…a knee-jerk RESPONSE. We have all watched too much Braves baseball, and as a result we all notice trends. And one of those trends just happens to be we are excellent at getting on base, but then stink it up when we get some kind of potential rally going. And even if I do disagree with your outlook, what the hell makes my outlook more valid than yours anyways?
(PAC!!! When you get a min bro, since you seem to be the unofficial data guru, I have another idea for one of them nifty data charts you make. Compare and contrast our ability to hit with bases empty, bases with runner on 1st, and/or RISP. Just a suggestion if you got the freetime man. Haha, my collegiate major actually focused on data interpretation and analysis, so I would do it myself, but I dont know how to make nifty graphs.)
!Vive la Francoeur! - April 10, 2010
I'm sorry. I've decided this year to not focus on Sabre stats
I really am sorry. I don’t understand how important they are, because , beyond basic stats I just don’t see how important they are. I’m not a major league scout. I am 60 years old, though I studied several of the advanced stats and didn’t see that they did anything to indicate what a player was capable of. Damn, look at Frenchy, he’s ,done OK since he joined the Mutts. But everyone comes up with stats that say he hasn’t. Well he has! Good for him! But the Braves better get their shit together or FYF is going to hit a grand slam against them. No Matter how much the say it won’t happen, it very well may!!!!
jimmontg - April 10, 2010
Applause
I’m totally digging your writing style. I feel like I’m reading things I would have written . . . just a whole lot more intelligent sounding.
Bob Wickman, it was no surprise when he regurgitated Huddy’s lead, but I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see it coming with Wagner. I know Renteria has been playing out of his mind lately, but I guess I couldn’t see past his general mediocrity since being traded out of Atlanta. I seriously wonder if Huddy will ever get another winning decision in San Francisco ever again?
But yes, there is always tomorrow. The beautiful, wonderful tomorrow, to right ship.
royhobbs - April 9, 2010
The feeling's mutual, my man.
I didn’t see the Wagner thing coming either, but I’ll take a surprise over expecting the doom and gloom any day.
Jacob Peterson - April 9, 2010
Did you really have to mention Wickman?
Thought you were better than that… :D
RainDelay - April 10, 2010
Just driving home the fact
That Huddy can’t seem to catch a break in San Fran, no matter who the closer is…
royhobbs - April 10, 2010
Well you drove it home with a jackhammer...
…with a side of fat kid.
RainDelay - April 11, 2010
The only thing that surprised me about the Wagner/Renteria “event” was why the pitch choice to throw an off speed pitch to a guy that’s already hitting like a man possessed…you did him a favor by speeding up his bat even more. A man hitting over .700 doesn’t need favors.
By the time the game was over for me (had to watch later) it was almost 1am. Needless to say it was not the way I wanted to end the day.
I hope we find a way to win in this ballpark before we leave.
NCChopper - April 10, 2010
I just chated with the Kannapolis Intimadators play by play anouncer and he said Julio Teheren pitched realy well with a plus fastball and mixed speeds really well tonight. This is really great news.
BRaves1 - April 9, 2010
Thank you
That cheered me up.
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010 via mobile
I thought Vizcaino was pitching tonight too?
Guess not according to game 2’s box score.
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010
me too according to the play by play guy he will pitch Sunday and Oberholzer will pitch tommorow
BRaves1 - April 9, 2010
thank you, miniature cbwilk! :)
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010
This team is so much better than the team we had starting last year. Confidence abounds!
PS, Javy got lit up in Yankee Stadium tonight. I wanted him to do well (especially since he’s on my fantasy team), but once again, Wren appears to know what he’s doing. I really like him.
Gage23 - April 9, 2010
The game was in Tampa Bay…which actually means it probably would have been worse on him if it had been in Yankee Stadium.
dunnytwogloves - April 10, 2010
Haha so true. Thanks for the correction.
Gage23 - April 10, 2010
Don't be too sure
Tropicana Field: Park Factor .996 (inhibits runs by 0.4%)
Yankee Stadium: Park Factor .965 (inhibits runs by 3.6%)
Granted, that’s just 1 year of data. But I can’t say this enough. There is no evidence to suggest the new Yankee stadium is a good hitter’s park. HRs, yes. Runs overall, no.
Jacob Peterson - April 10, 2010
But, seeing that Javy is prone to the HR, I think his point is valid…of course, I don’t know how many HRs he gave up in the game at Tropicana.
justincredubil02 - April 10, 2010
Aww, no "Is there something wrong with Jason Heyward?" posts yet
I’m kinda bummed.
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010
He cant even by beer yet. I think he will be okay. Kid is gonna struggle with LHP for a little while until he gets used to major league stuff.
tripl21 - April 9, 2010
indeed.
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010
I’d rather see the “struggle” this early in the season than after the All-Star break.
It’ll come. Too much dang talent there for it not to.
NCChopper - April 10, 2010
I saw him twitching at the plate.
soup du jour - April 10, 2010
Haha oh god, not the whole “twitching” thing again. Who were the twitchers last year? Kj, Diaz and FYF?
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
+1!
justincredubil02 - April 10, 2010
Tough one to take.
taney71 - April 9, 2010
There is nothing wrong with Heyward
He is a young player and a rookie he will, I’m sure, man up to his promise. I think if injury does not block him he will be a Hall Of Famer. But, that is just my opinion. What disturbs me is how well the accursed Mutts have been doing
jimmontg - April 9, 2010
Im not worried either. Hes working the counts but he couldnt lay off that low low ball today. Also he could be in a minor slump he didnt end the Spring to hot. He will figure it out.
BRaves1 - April 9, 2010
At least we dont have Mike Gonzalez anymore :
IP H R ER BB SO SV BLSV WHIP ERA
2.0 /5 /4 /4 /4 /3 /1 / 2 /4.50 / 18.00
and his only save he loaded the bases
tripl21 - April 9, 2010
One of my fantasy teams would appreciate it immensely if he would knock that shit of pronto.
J-Freak - April 10, 2010
Ditto.
justincredubil02 - April 10, 2010
My Baltimore buddy said he got booed last night… any validity to that?
Cammando2317 - April 10, 2010
I am not really a doom-and-gloom type of guy but there are a few factors that worry me about our immediate situation, even beyond our on-field problems (LOBs)
1. In a 24 hour period, we suffered through 2 one-run losses and played 22 innings.
2. We traveled 2,100 miles, crossed 4 time zones, and played a day game after a night game.
3. Compounding this jet lag exhaustion, we played an intense, extra inning game wherein we used our entire bench and most of our bullpen.
4. Our starting 3B was out this game and prolly will be for the 3-6 days. Besides the hindrance of us playing minus one of our starters, it is compounded by the strain it is placing on our sleepy, jet-lagged bench.
5. The Freak will be here Sunday.
I know its early. And most of these are nothing that couldnt be fixed with a convenient day off. But I am still pretty buzzed from the Old Crowe whiskey I drank after our loss today and wanted to post something. Feel free to rip this post apart, with my blessings.
!Vive la Francoeur! - April 9, 2010
Back in January, I flew from AZ to Florida, which is basically the same distance that Atlanta to San Fran is. It took me 48 hours before I felt normal. It’s hard to play professional baseball…I cant imagine playing after being that jet lagged AND arriving at my hotel around 3AM.
When I did my preview of April I fully expected us to lose 2, if not 3 in San Fran. We never play well there. I’m just glad we’re getting this trip over with early.
Scott Coleman - April 9, 2010
So what you’resaying…is that we should have kept Heyward down for two more weeks?
!Vive la Francoeur! - April 9, 2010
I made a trip from Charolotte to Tucson and arrived at 2 in the morning last summer and it sucked. I couldnt imagine having to hit a 94 mph fastball the next day.
BRaves1 - April 9, 2010
But srsly, the schedule was tough enough. Add in the intensity of two consecutive games and we are suddenly set up for disappointment for the next two days.
!Vive la Francoeur! - April 9, 2010
and then the wonderful schedule makers have us playing in San Diego on Monday, an off day Tuesday, a game on Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon…just to fly home and play the Rockies the following night in Atlanta. Geeze.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010
I hate the
mid-series off-day thing. And we get screwed with 2 of them in the first ten days. Meanwhile, we have a west-coast trip with no off-day on either travel day. Thanks, MLB scheduling! You guys are really great at your job.
Jacob Peterson - April 10, 2010
What ever happened to Edward Salcedo. I remember we signed him but where is he at now
BRaves1 - April 9, 2010
Extended Spring Training
According to our prospect guys, he’ll probably start at some point
Jacob Peterson - April 10, 2010
Heartbreak better than Blowout
I guess losing a close game (two of them in a week) just proves that our team is good but not great. I rather lose close games and feel like tomorrow can’t come sooner than lose by 6 runs with inept pitching and a terrible bullpen thus feeling like the baseball world is going to end.
Outside of Lowe, the pitching is there for us to stay in games. The offense will catch up (Heyward will adjust to breaking balls and Glaus bat will wake up) and find a way to capitalize on clutch/situational hitting. Prado is already in mid-season form so no worries from him. Since it’s only April, you will not get anymore crazy superlatives out of me until at least June.
Great write up pacgnosis. Where do you get your WPA stats from?
romone_braves91 - April 10, 2010
FanGraphs
They have live scoreboards for each game, including nifty win probability graphs. You can then see boxscores for each game that include WPA data for each player, and a play log that gives WPA data for every “event” in the game.
Here’s a link.
Jacob Peterson - April 10, 2010
Is it just me or does Heyward's swing not look as quick?!?!
Is it too soon to call him the Say-K Kid lol? His last 3 weeks including ST have been pretty bad at the plate and I know we don’t want to talk about this as fans but he hasn’t sniffed a hit against a LHP. I know it’s early but that’s a concern and his plate discipline has disappeared as well.
Jay212033 - April 10, 2010
Frustrating part to me (so far) is...
Jurrjens – allowed 2 runs
Hanson – allowed 2 runs
Hudson – allowed 2 runs
Lowe – ERA 7.50 – and the only pitcher we seem to score runs for.
A bit too much like last year to make me comfortable…yet.
I know it’s early – no panic or “negative nancy” attitude here – but I’ll be glad when the other pitchers on our staff get the support they deserve.
NCChopper - April 10, 2010
This is just one of those fluky things
that sometimes happens. Don’t worry, our good starters will get some wins soon. Maybe not as many as they deserve, but more than 0. :)
Jacob Peterson - April 10, 2010
This is nowhere near as bad a stretch as ‘07 when the Braves didn’t score a run for 3 games. They’ll bounce back and get a W tonight.
UMDBHIK - April 10, 2010
Was that the stretch where it was “Smoltz and
SainHudson and pray for rain”? Or was that 08?J-Freak - April 10, 2010
So
Husdon JJ and Tommy suck cuz they cant get WINZZZZZZZZZZ. DLowe is our best pitcher cuz he gets WINZZZZZ
Erihury - April 10, 2010
Kawakami tonight!
John Holton - April 10, 2010
Frustrating loss yesterday to be sure, but if our pitching continues to perform as well as it has (sans DLowe), we’re going to have a great year. Guys will start hitting, but let’s just hope Prado continues to torch everything until they do.
Hudson looked phe.nom.en.al. yesterday. I like that a lot.
UMDBHIK - April 10, 2010
They would have called interference on the Braves
What? Fucked up, but true.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - April 10, 2010
the steal was definitely interference
bad call ump
Mr. Sanchez - April 10, 2010
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