We've already projected what we think the Braves infielders and outfielders will do this season, now we turn our attention to the pitching staff, beginning with the starting pitchers. For the pitchers we'll project W-L, ERA, and Strikeouts.
Copy and paste the below players into a comment and guess their 2010 W-L, ERA, and Strikeouts.
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Tommy Hanson
Tim Hudson
Kenshin Kawakami
My guesses are after the jump.
Derek Lowe, 16-11, 3.63, 127
Jair Jurrjens, 17-9, 3.23, 148
Tommy Hanson, 22-7, 2.42, 215... Cy Young
Tim Hudson, 18-10, 3.48, 109
Kenshin Kawakami, 12-11, 3.76, 125
I'm going to go ahead and be pretty optimistic about this year's staff, giving no one an ERA over 4.00, but no one except Hanson gets a real flashy record either. Hudson and Jurrjens don't get as many bad-luck losses this year, thanks to the offense. Kawakami squeaks out a winning record, and Lowe bounces back nicely. Best staff in baseball. </rose colored glasses>
0 recs | 37 comments
I don't know how to make an infinity sign for Hanson...
Derek Lowe 15-9, 4.12 ERA, 104 K
Jair Jurrjens 19-8, 2.78 ERA, 176 K
Tommy Hanson 17-7, 2.88 ERA, 188 K
Tim Hudson 13-10, 4.09 ERA, 112 K
Kenshin Kawakami 11-7, 3.88 ERA, 103 K
Unless Atlanta schedules KK’s starts around the other teams’ aces, then I’m fairly confident with my projections. The entire baseball world is waiting for JJ to have a mediocre season, but it’s not happening. JJ for Cy!!
JeremyC - April 3, 2010
Here it is... ∞
nick9314 - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe- 14-12 4.08 126 Ks
Jair Jurrjens- 17- 8 3.47 170Ks
Tommy Hanson- 19-4 2.45 224Ks
Tim Hudson- 18-7 2.92 165Ks
Kenshin Kawakami- 14-13 3.97 115ks
nick9314 - April 3, 2010
thats alot of strikeouts for hanson…. but i like it
David G. Little - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe 16-10 3.50 125K
Jair Jurrjens 15-9 3.26 180K
Tommy Hanson 16-11 3.47 190K
Tim Hudson 17-8 3.03 150K
Kawakami 12-9 4.05 110K
DrB - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe 16-9 4.10 132
Jair Jurrjene 17-8 3.10 185
Tommy Hanson 20-7 2.65 200
Tim Hudson 15-7 3.45 150
Kenshin Kawakami 12-10 3.50 135
bighop - April 3, 2010
Well
They don’t call it a sophomore slump for nothing….
blackertai - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe 17-10 4.01 129
Jair Jurrjens 16-8 3.19 179
Tommy Hanson 19-6 2.73 196
Tim Hudson 16-9 3.50 154
Kenshin Kawakami 13-9 3.98 131
Jose Rodriguez - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe 14-9 , 3.78 , 118
Jair Jurrjens 16 – 8 , 3.02 , 170
Tommy Hanson 19-6 , 2.78 , 212
Tim Hudson 15-7 , 3.50 , 140
Kenshin Kawakami 11-8 , 4.10 , 138
JKowalek - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe 15-10 3.91 125
Jair Jurrjens 18-9 3.20 150
Tommy Hanson 20-8 2.90 193
Tim Hudson 14-11 4.01 132
Kenshin Kawakami 11-11 4.10 116
Billy Wagner 2-3 2.25 50 27 saves
Takashi Saito 1-3 3.01 30 19 saves
Kobe:The Legend - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe 15-5 3.22 147
Jair Jurrjens 18-10 3.29 157
Tommy Hanson 17-7 3.59 188
Tim Hudson 12-8 3.49 158
Kenshin Kawakami 14-11 4.22 115
lemke2blauser2bream - April 3, 2010
A Random Guess
Derek Lowe 12-16 4.25 137 (Lowe vs. Halladay, Santana, and Josh Johnson = Losses)
Jair Jurrjens 15-10 3.13 160 (Career ave. year)
Tommy Hanson 16-8 3.27 190 (Teams know him now if develops changeup more W’s and Ks)
Tim Hudson 19-5 2.87 175 (The Sleeper on the staff)
K Kawakami 15-8 3.33 158 (Should be more comfortable yet still lack support)
The Staff will be the best in the league. Just hope the bullpen arms hold up for the Oct run.
romone_braves91 - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe: 15-8 4.10 125
Jair Jurrjens: 17-7 3.15 165
Tommy Hanson: 21- 5 2.82 210
Tim Hudson: 18- 7 2.98 170
Kenshin Kawakami: 15- 12 3.88 130
BravesFanScout - April 3, 2010
low on lowe?
everyone except for gondee is thinking lowe wil struggle.
D lowe- 3.70 ERA
Jair- 3.60—- low BABIP last season right?
Tommy Hanson- 2.40 ERA
Hudson- 3.12 ERA
Kenshin- 3.65 ERA
Braves Biceps - April 3, 2010
I think Lowe has to show me an improvement before I can believe it. He is going up against the same batters as before in the NL East and they know about his stuff. I guess you could make the argument about how Tim Hudson bounced back from that bad year 2006 and was the best on the staff 2007. I am in the wait and see boat.
romone_braves91 - April 3, 2010
i went 3.22 on lowe…..mostly because while writing that comment i had extreme faith in lowe…..it somehow has dwindled in the last 2 hrs. or so…hmm….
lemke2blauser2bream - April 3, 2010
Tommy Hanson 18-8 2.97 205
Tim Hudson 17-8 3.31 149
Jair Jurrjens 16-8 3.42 165
Derek Lowe 15-10 4.05 121
Kenshin Kawakami 14-11 3.99 116
Kris Medlen 6-4 3.09 101 (8 spot starts)
Cooper'sTown - April 3, 2010
Wow..
That’s 86 wins just from the starters. If that happens, we win what, 105 games? I hope so!
Jacob Peterson - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe, 16-12, 3.93, 114
Jair Jurrjens, 16-8, 3.38, 137
Tommy Hanson, 19-8, 2.78, 212
Tim Hudson, 18-7, 3.68, 154
Kenshin Kawakami, 9-11, 3.90, 115
esadb - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe – 4.08, 16-15, 140k
Jair Jurrjens – 3.12, 17-10, 130k
Tommy Hanson – 3.22, 17-9, 180k
Tim Hudson – 3.55, 16-11, 150k
Kenshin Kawakami – 4.01, 12-8, 100k
By my projections, we’ll have a non-stop debate as to who should be the opening day starter in 2011 – JJ or Tommy.
hollerin' brave - April 3, 2010 via mobile
innings...
How many innings do people see Hanson pitching this year? How many should he pitch? Some of the 19 or 20 win projections must he assuming 240 innings…which would be a lot….too many in my opinion.
calbers - April 3, 2010 via mobile
I'd say right at 200...
But he could win 20 with 200 innings, easy, if the offense supports him and the bullpen doesn’t blow too many of his wins.
Jacob Peterson - April 3, 2010
He clocked in 127 ips in the Majors and around 180ish for the year (AAA and the bigs). I would assume he gets 33 starts and clocks in around 210ish innings. I think the pitchers progression is 30 plus innings per year. Just like JJ.
romone_braves91 - April 3, 2010
Trying to be realistic, but hoping for better from Lowe and Kawakami
Derek Lowe – 14-10, 3.95, 130
Jair Jurrjens – 15-9, 3.14, 152
Tommy Hanson – 14-7, 3.2 , 185
Tim Hudson – 12-7, 3.58, 115
Kenshin Kawakami – 10-10, 4.05, 112
award6 - April 3, 2010
How many ppl on this site thinks Bobby will let Hanson go the full 9 or pull the same stunt he did back in Houston last year? That game killed me. I was upset for hours.
romone_braves91 - April 3, 2010
iirc,
the problem in that game wasn’t so much that he pulled Tommy (though that was bad), it was that he put in Soriano, who had sucked recently and was pitching for the 4th straight day. If he had put in somebody who was better-rested, we still win that game and it’s not a big deal.
Jacob Peterson - April 3, 2010
But to answer your question,
I think Bobby lets Hanson get at least 1 CG this year.
Jacob Peterson - April 3, 2010
Derek Lowe: 16-10, 4.00, 120
Jair Jurrjens: 15-9, 3.30, 145
Tommy Hanson: 18-10, 2.95, 180
Tim Hudson: 15-8, 3.45, 130
Kenshin Kawakami: 12-10, 3.80, 105
I came this close to picking 5 15-game winners, like we had that one year in the late 90s. I’m just not sure Kenshin will get the innings (and run support) to get to 15. Overall, though, better run support means better records than last year.
Jacob Peterson - April 3, 2010
I feel like being optomistic tonight
Lowe 18 wins
JJ, Hanson, Huddy all 20 game winners
KK 14 wins
Yeah, probably not realistic, but I’m excited about Monday!
Rhyno18 - April 3, 2010
ERA and K's from the meta projections
Considering wins and losses tell you absolutely nothing useful about how well a pitcher performed, I used a random number generator (lower bound 5, upper bound 22) to project the wins and losses.
Derek Lowe 21-12 – 4.06 – 126
Jair Jurrjens 6-9 – 3.48 – 156
Tommy Hanson 8-6 – 3.15 – 202
Tim Hudson 8-9 – 3.73 – 115
Kenshin Kawakami 11-16 – 4.23 – 117
PWHjort - April 3, 2010
They don’t put on base percent on the scoreboard, the random number generator for predicting W-L records seems an equal to that to me. W-L depends on more than the pitchers ability, run support and errors being big parts. Who’s the last Cy Young winner with a losing record?
bighop - April 4, 2010
Cough gagne Cough
esadb - April 4, 2010
Good catch
I didn’t think about relievers winning the Cy.
bighop - April 4, 2010
Uhhh, what?
PWHjort - April 4, 2010
These projections will be useful
If someone can calculte the averages of all these numbers.
Maybe it’ll be the most accurate projection.
Hanzo - April 4, 2010
The collective wisdom of the crowds is often more useful than even the most sophisticated mathematical algorithm.
PWHjort - April 4, 2010
Derek Lowe, 17-12, 3.48, 141
Jair Jurrjens, 17-10, 3.09, 165
Tommy Hanson, 15-10, 2.88, 181
Tim Hudson, 14-5, 3.13, 133
Kenshin Kawakami, 14-10, 4.28, 118
Total W-L — 77-47
The Real Me - April 4, 2010
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