A reality check on Braves outfield prospect Cody Johnson from Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus:
Johnson has more raw power than any prospect in baseball, period. More than Pedro Alvarez. More than Jesus Montero. More than Mike Stanton. The problem, of course, is that he can't make enough contact for it to matter and his first taste of the upper levels has exposed the holes in his swing at an alarming level. Given the day off on Sunday, Johnson has whiffed 12 times in his last four games, and on the season, he's 7-for-32 with 20 strikeouts. As if his .219 batting average isn't bad enough, his .583 BABIP shows that he's already way over his head. He is to power hitters what Joey Gathright is to speedsters, proving that one top-of-the-chart skill isn't always enough.
I really soured on Johnson this spring after talking to him for a while. He's just got it in his head that his approach is right and to hell with anyone who thinks otherwise. I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves tried to rid themselves of him as soon as he starts hitting a little better. To that end, I'm surprised the Braves didn't put him back in A-ball so that his weaknesses wouldn't be as exposed. Unless he adjusts his mindset, which would lead to an adjustment in his approach to the plate, then he's going nowhere as a prospect.
0 recs | 43 comments
FYF 2.0
Too immature to ever “get it”.
His only value left to the Braves is via a trade piece to a team that overvalues him because of his insane power, so yes, he has to be moved down.
Cracker! - April 19, 2010
THIS THIS THIS!!!!
Milligan is better, and will be a much better pro. I said to deal CoJo last year before he hit better pitching
JKowalek - April 19, 2010
it's really not that easy
Other teams have very competent scouts too and it is no secret how unlikely it is for him to ever be a useful major leaguer. I doubt he has almost any trade value or has at any point in the last couple seasons. He’s just too much of a project. His potential is probably worth more too us than what they could get for him.
was385 - April 19, 2010
I think we could have traded him last year in a small package for a much needed reliever or something like that. I’m not saying we package him with Freddie and can get AGon or Miggy Cabrera or anything like that.
JKowalek - April 19, 2010
12 K’s in 4 games, and he thinks his approach is ok? Somebody offer him $500 for a K-less game and see if he can do it. AA might take $750 to get his attention, but it might be worth it come trade time.
bighop - April 19, 2010
Don’t look now, but Adam Milligan is quietly turning into Cody Johnson.
I’d really like to see Cody get the strikeouts under control and succeed (who wouldn’t), but I don’t know if he’s capable of it or not. Until then I remain agnostic on him.
PWHjort - April 19, 2010
Wow
Very disappointed to hear that about Mr. Johnson as I had high hopes for him. He really sounds like a FYF #2.
Hopefully him getting dominated like this will cause him to change his mind. I would have thought spring training would have changed his mind tho because he often times looked terrible at the plate
drumzalicious - April 19, 2010
That’s too bad. Took FYF a long time and a new team, but he seems to be starting to get it.
I’m surprised by Cody’s attitude. I’d be willing to try new things if I started seeing younger hitters make it to the bigs before me. He’s still young, but someone needs to get though to him.
Sparhawk - April 19, 2010
Reminds me of something my old boss used to say: “The day you learn everything there is to know about your job is the day you need to get a new one.”
I agree with the other folks here that it seems to be an issue of career maturity. It baffles me that Johnson could sincerely believe he’s perfected a complicated mental and physical game so early in his life. That’s a BIG assumption with (apparently) very little evidential support.
TheLetter2 - April 19, 2010
I really doubt he has much trade value even if he starts hitting
He needs to make HUGE adjustments before he is a value to the organization in any way. Crossing my fingers but not holding my breath.
was385 - April 19, 2010
This is all ridiculous. It’s 10 games into the season.
cbwilk - April 19, 2010
however
it’s the same problem he’s always had. It’s not like he’s just slumping and everyone is overreacting. The majority of people expected him to be exposed by higher level pitching and now it’s happening. I think the assessment from KG pretty much hits the nail right on the head.
was385 - April 19, 2010
But jumping to the conclusion that he’s being outmatched by higher pitching is premature. He’s been outmatched by the 2 teams he’s played against this year. I’m sure it’s happened plenty before. If this week and a half stretch came in the middle of an impressive year nobody would be making a huge deal about it. It’s so easy to make these huge conclusions based off a tiny amount of at bats, but the reality is it doesn’t tell you much about anything. We’re talking about 35 plate appearances! Are people really making huge judgments on a guy based on 35 plate appearances?
cbwilk - April 19, 2010
Eddie Guadardo got cut from Nationals camp after 10 pitches, two batters, neither of which were lefties to a guy vying to be a LOOGY
royhobbs - April 19, 2010
Eddie Guardado is a 39 year old who was trying to make a team that obviously decided they’d rather go with younger players. Most all of the older guys they had in camp got cut. His situation really has nothing to do with Cody’s.
cbwilk - April 19, 2010
I know
I was just giving an example of a guy who was victim to a small sample. Almost kind of disrespectful to have him even bother to report to camp when they clearly had their mind set against bringing him aboard.
royhobbs - April 19, 2010
Seriously. He and Ron Villone both.
cbwilk - April 19, 2010
I don't think many people are forming opinions based on this sample
it’s merely reaffirming what has been his calling card for quite some time now. Again, we all hope he turns it around because that power is…. incredible. But, at this point it’s on him to prove he can make contact, which he hasn’t done against lower level pitching so far.
was385 - April 19, 2010
true
35 PA’s is a tiny sample size, but striking out 20 of those 35 times is a ridiculously bad statistic, especially if they are all swing and miss, which with his reputation, they probably are. Also regardless of sample size and stats, his state of mind is neither desirable to have on your team, nor hopefully for him being able to get out of this funk. if you dont think something is wrong when clearly something is, then there is no hope.
Don Draper - April 20, 2010
I can’t really comment on the conversation gondeee had with him, because I wasn’t there, but I’ve talked with Cody a ton of times and I love his attitude. He’s told me several times he knows he needs to strike out less and make more contact. I don’t really know how their conversation went down, but it didn’t sound like the Cody I’ve known.
cbwilk - April 20, 2010
10 games?
We all appreciate your work, so don’t feel bad about going on and on and on someday, if it turns around, about how you told all of us to not give up on Cody Johnson, but this isn’t a 10 game sample size. This is a 3 year sample size. This isn’t a case where a prospect got moved up and that little hole in his game got exposed into a crater. This is a crater being exposed as the Grand motherflippin Canyon.
JFP - April 19, 2010
and exactly how many minutes = “a while”
I think publicly
labelingsliming the kid as uncoachable with a “to hell with anyone who thinks otherwise” attitude is just absolutely wrong. I mean, that may be your impression based on whatever casual contact you had with him, but how can you possibly really know that to be true?fandave - April 19, 2010
Hope that’s directed at gondeee and not me.
cbwilk - April 19, 2010
yeah, it was.
my impression – based on several articles and interviews I’ve read – is he’s a bright young kid with a great attitude.
fandave - April 20, 2010
Anyone here seen Animal House?
If he hasn’t made a head-check by the All-Star break, call him up to the Majors. Then we haze him…and I don’t mean the standard kind of hazing that your typical rookie would get upon making it to The Show. No, I mean haze him like he is pledging for Omega Theta Pi (Thank you, Sir, may I have another?!). Then send him back to the Sally League.
Maybe that’ll get it through to him. If it doesn’t…cut him. I’m sure Kansas City will take a flyer on him.
Chopaholic - April 19, 2010
Remain calm!
ALL IS WELL!!!!
J-Freak - April 19, 2010
Like I said…I’m giving him until July.
Then I’ll panic. };0)
Chopaholic - April 20, 2010
Most of you missed it
Because it was all in bastardized Olde English, but here’s what Jerry Manual did with Francoeur over the off-season:
BP where the coach threw NOTHING but outside, too high, too low, inside pitches. Nothing but bad pitches. And instructed Francoeur to swing at pretty much everything. And then without saying anything he mixed in a few hittable pitches, and then Francoeur was raking again. Not saying this would work on Cody, but it is an interesting approach.
royhobbs - April 19, 2010
So Manuel did something, right?
poppycock!
Mr. Sanchez - April 19, 2010
The biggest reason that I have seen that Francoeur is actually hitting again (and this is probably a result of Manuel’s coaching) is that his line drive % jumped from like 7% with the Braves last season to 25% since he has been with the Mets. He isn’t necessarily more selective (maybe a little) but he is making MUCH better contact. The guy has never had a ridiculous strike out rate, he can make contact, just not good contact. If he gets back to that he could still salvage being useful by hitting the ball hard when he does hit it.
yondaime4 - April 19, 2010
Well...
It could be because of Manuel’s teaching that it finally got through his thick skull, and the 25% LD rate is a consequence of this.
soup du jour - April 19, 2010
yondaime4 - April 19, 2010
Reading Fail.
My bad.
soup du jour - April 19, 2010
What exactly did Cody say?
ATLforlife - April 19, 2010
I thought he might turn out to be a Mark Reynolds type. But even he didn’t strike out this much as a minor leaguer. Reynolds also had a higher average & better OBP. If Cody ever made it to the bigs & somehow managed to play a full season, he might wif 300 times!
The Braves knew he’d be a big project when they drafted him. Wonder if they bothered to find out if he was coachable?
FitzFan - April 19, 2010
Guys did anyone actually think that he WOULDN’T struggle this year? Back late last year, early offseason people even on this board expected him to need 2 full years in AA, i think most knew he would struggle this year, he might end up havin some gosh awful numbers but i figure Braves scouts figured this, NEXT season will be the true test for him and see if he learned anything and can adjusts. I dont know if the guy is a MLB guy or not but i figured he would struggle some this year, nothin is surprising me right now, the guy is gonna need time and see if he can develop. Next year at the end of the year and he is still in AA and still suckin then you might can firmly say he is done he will never be a MLB guy or much of one if any, just premature at the moment.
rockybull - April 19, 2010
+1
yondaime4 - April 19, 2010
Good point
Also, he’s only 21, and even if it takes him to the end of next season to figure everything out, he’ll still only be 23. That’s hardly old for a guy in the upper minors.
That said, I’m not optimistic about him changing his approach.
Jacob Peterson - April 19, 2010
" I’m not optimistic about him changing his approach"
150 Ks by the All Star break in AA might be what some consider a “wake up call”.
Mr. Sanchez - April 20, 2010
+ 1,000
He’s still young for his level.. That’s not saying he’ll be fine, but he’s clearly not a fast track prospect, let him take his lumps and hope he adjusts.
Mighty Healthy - April 19, 2010
I expected him to struggle
And I also expected his struggles to portend his downfall as a major league prospect. I also remember saying something like “He’s going to need post similar numbers at AA to convince anyone he’s still viable, and he’ll to improve greatly in order to maintain those numbers a higher level.”
Among those who expected him to have difficulties, how many actually expected him to solve AA pitching? His swing has too big a hole in it, and as the quality of pitchers he’s facing continues to improve, the easier it is for them to miss his bat. He can hit fastballs like nobody’s business, but guys that have breaking balls they can throw consistently and control even marginally don’t find him a challenge to face.
If he’s got his mind set about not adjusting his approach, he needs to figure out what his fallback career is.
Bronn - April 19, 2010
That’s kind of surprising about Cody having an attitude problem. He sounded pretty humble a few months back:
http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/8/8/982540/i-still-have-a-long-way-to-go-but
Bravely going forward - April 19, 2010
583 BABIP
That stat is amazing. I knew he was off to a terrible start with his strike outs, but never even looked at his BABIP. I have definitely come around with everyone else regarding Johnson.
Kenny483 - April 20, 2010
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