It's official: Jason Heyward is in the first mini-slump of his career. After taking the league by storm on Opening Day, he has struggled to make consistent contact since then. Now, this doesn't mean we should panic. And if you're doubting Heyward's ability to be an everyday player for the Braves, you're nuts. Remember folks: He's only 20 years old.
This is his current line:
.176AVG .222OBP .412SLG 1HR 8K/1BB
That's not too pretty. Do keep in mind though that unlike most rookies, pitchers have a full game plan to face Heyward. It's not the same situation that Jeff Francouer had when he came up to the Majors in June 2005; pitchers and scouts are doing anything they can to know how to attack Jason Heyward.
Here's a look at the pitches he's faced in his first 4 games:
Analysis after the jump.
*Reminder: This is the view from the opposing catcher. In this case, Jason Heyward would be on the right side of the chart.*
Here is a key to the graph:
· Green - Ball
· Blue – Hit/Put in play
· Red - Strike Looking
· Purple - Strike Swinging
· Pink - Foul
Jason Heyward has put 8 balls into play so far this season; here are the outcomes:
1. Home Run to RF
2. Reached 1B on an error
3. Line drive single up the middle
4. Double to RF
5. Grounds out softly to 2nd; reaches on FC
6. Groundout to 1B
7. Soft groundout to 1B
8. Ground out to 2B
Looking at the graph, it's pretty apparent: Jason Heyward, like most lefties, prefers the baseball inside and low. It's also easy to see that Jason has also struggled to command the lower-half of the strikezone. That should improve with more experience in the league.
It also appears that pitchers are really focusing on the outside corner while facing the Jay Hey Kid. As you can see, the bottom-left corner of the chart is much more filled than any other.
A positive here: It appears that Jason doesn't chance too many of the pitches in the upper part of the zone. With Heyward being 6'5, it's much more difficult to throw him a high strike. But if his first 20 or so plate appearances are any sign of things to come, it looks like Jason will be able to hold off on the high fastballs.
You might notice there are a lot of little pink circles on the chart. This just proves what many of us have known for a long time: Jason Heyward does a darn good job of protecting the plate with 2 strikes. Once he learns to control the strike zone a little bit better, J-Hey is going to give opposing pitchers fits with his plate coverage.
Finally, Bobby said this after the game and I think he hit the nail right on the head:
"(Heyward) was chasing today pretty bad, trying to win it all by himself."
He has a great point here. Ever since Heyward hit his 450ft bomb on Opening Day, everyone has called him our savior and the future of baseball. There's no doubt Jason is going to be a great player; but to put the burden of being the Braves' "savior" at age 20 with only a few major league at bats under his belt is ridiculous, not to mention incredibly unfair. Let the kid come into his own and establish himself before we go throwing all that pressure on him.
I know this post didn't bring up any news points and it didn't invent anything new, but I thought it was important to see how pitchers had been attacking J-Hey in his first few games in the big leagues. As of right now, it's working pretty well. But it's only a matter of time before a player of Jason Heyward's talents and abilities catch up to these pitchers and their scouting reports. And it's going to be great fun to watch once he does.
If you've made it this far, thank you for reading and, like always, go Braves.
0 recs | 66 comments
Get ready for a kick in the nuts today boys, I have a feeling we’re gonna have to endure another heart breaker
Brave Neander - April 10, 2010 via mobile
Wow, I feel really lucky...
since I don’t have any nuts.
sddbaker - April 10, 2010
Ohh
you’re a eunuch
acie4mvp - April 10, 2010
you're not missing anything...
they itch a lot and generally just flop around doing nothing but be a pain.
Mr. Sanchez - April 10, 2010
that is like verbatim of how i would describe them
Swo12bv - April 10, 2010
Not to mention they are de facto Kryptonite in absolutely any adverse situation. Who needs em?
J-Freak - April 10, 2010
The future of mankind?
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
Overrated.
FineHamAbounds - April 10, 2010
The way things are going, I’d have to agree. It’s not looking pretty.
J-Freak - April 11, 2010
His weakness
From this, and from having watched him so far, seems to be breaking balls diving low out of the zone. He’s got great command of the strike zone horizontally, but he’s got a lot of swings and misses on low balls.
Bronn - April 10, 2010
Also
Feel like your scatted plot isn’t big enough because two of those called strikes outside came yesterday, and were well outside. Just for scale purposes they should be entirely off the page.
Bronn - April 10, 2010
I used gameday and plotted the points as close as possible. This obviously isn’t an exact science.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
so he’s andruw jones? im gonna be really bummed in ten years. ill enjoy the WS and 27 gold gloves tho.
15ks - April 11, 2010
Heyward will be fine
The first person to say “we should have kept him down” is nuts.
After this spring, and the way he played last year, there was only one choice.
Regardless of whether he was brought up now or in June, he would still like had a bitt of a transition shock like to to MLB pitching. Let him ride it out for a bit and he will be back to normal. He’s too good not to.
ATLandUNC - April 10, 2010
he would still have had a bit of a transition shock from facing MLB pitching***
ATLandUNC - April 10, 2010
I must be nucking futs then. It isn’t that I don’t think he’s “ready”. It’s that we put way too much pressure on him, and 2 weeks worth of him learning at the MLB level is not worth a full season of him mashing at the MLB level a few years down the road.
justincredubil02 - April 10, 2010
So an opening day call up is bad because mid season call ups never get pressure put on them?...
Mr. Sanchez - April 10, 2010
Haha
I’d pay good money to see you 2 together in a room for 24 hours.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
What I actually said:
Since you obviously didn’t catch all of that the first time.
justincredubil02 - April 10, 2010
Okay, this chart is from behind the plate, right?… since you say the lower left is the outside corner?
sddbaker - April 10, 2010
I’m a little confused too.
blitzerlover - April 10, 2010
This is the view from behind the plate. Heyward would be on the right side of the plate and yes, bottom left corner would be outside and away.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
*Heyward would be on the right side of the plate from this view point.
Think of yourself as Geovanny Soto or Bengie Molina.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
LOL
As opposed to outside and “IN”? Sorry man, I just had to …
scstrato - April 10, 2010
Haha FML
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
He doesn’t swing and miss much in the zone does he
eaheckman10 - April 10, 2010
good point
i hadn’t noticed that from the graph, but it’s very true.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010
The good news is that he is making contact all throughout the strike zone, whereas a lot of rookies you’d see will be primarily contact in one area only. As he learns tendencies, his ability to cover the entire plate is going to make him a very tough out.
I think this should be revisited at the ASB, assuming J-Hey stays healthy and doesn’t remain mired in this for so long that the team sends him down. It would be interesting to see the difference between now and mid-season, at least to me.
UMDBHIK - April 10, 2010
If I've learned one thing:
Rookies shouldn’t hit home runs in their first ABs. Not that there’s anything statistical about that, but its a superstition that’s gonna stick with me forever after after seeing Heyward, Schafer, and Jermaine Dye do it. Dye went on to be a very good hitter, but he struggled a lot in hit first season. Schafer will be a good player, and Heyward will be great, but those first AB homers are like a curse.
FineHamAbounds - April 10, 2010
very unlike Schafer
I see alot of people comparing his start to that of Jordan Schafer. That couldn’t be more wrong. The pitches that Heyward is swinging and missing this year are pitches that Schafer did not even offer at. The pitchers tried the same thing with Schafer last year but he just layed off the pitches out of the zone and took the walk. It was then that pitchers began to go back in the zone with fastballs to Jordan and discovered he no longer had the bat speed to catch up to them. As soon as Jason starts reconizing the pitches sooner and does not offer at pitches off the plate, pitchers will have to start coming back in the zone and Heyward won’t miss them.
homerlanding - April 10, 2010
+22
nick9314 - April 10, 2010
oo and Heyward doesnt have a broken hand/wrist
Swo12bv - April 10, 2010
This
is the point everyone seems to overlook.
J-Freak - April 10, 2010
WE need to be as patient as much as JHey needs to be at the plate.
He has looked TERRIBLE in the last three games. He’s 20. Those 3 games were 3 of his first 4. This is the best pitching he is ever seen. And as poised and mature as he is, let’s face it, it’s impossible to not be alittle overwhelmed and anxious. A week ago today, every single person on here would have died for this man. This is why we had all those posts about lower expectations. He’s slumping. The talent is there and it will show. This is like a growing pain and we need to sit back and watch him grow.
JKowalek - April 10, 2010
I've felt like he has a problem with the pitch down and in. Is the chart a view from the pitchers perspective or
the betters perspective?
It seems the pitches he has been striking out a lot on lately is the pitch down and in
BravesFanScout - April 10, 2010
batters*
BravesFanScout - April 10, 2010
Sorry, its the catchers view
I’ll go edit that.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010
alright thanks.. Nice post. It's very interesting.
BravesFanScout - April 10, 2010
Let’s not pretend we know what his weakness is after watching him for four games.
The only type of pitch I’ve ever heard someone (in baseball) mention he’s vulnerable to is a good change-up, but apparently he ironed out those issues before they really became issues. I think he’ll be fine.
PWHjort - April 10, 2010
I wasn't trying to point out his weaknesses
just trying to find out which pitches he had been struggling with in his first few games and how opposing pitchers are going to (try to) get him out.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010
And let's be honest...
a good changeup works against most any hitter, so it’s not like he’d be alone in that vulnerability.
Mr. Sanchez - April 10, 2010
Your statement below, is exactly what I've been thinking all a long:
“There’s no doubt Jason is going to be a great player; but to put the burden of being the Braves’ “savior” at age 20 with only a few major league at bats under his belt is ridiculous, not to mention incredibly unfair. Let the kid come into his own and establish himself before we go throwing all that pressure on him."
I have not set myself up for disappointment by putting high expectations on a 20 yr old. I feel in time he will be all everyone is claiming him to be, but to put this kind of pressure on him now, is doing more harm than good.
HEYJUDE - April 10, 2010
Freaking this.
justincredubil02 - April 10, 2010
Keep him away from Pendleton.
…..too late.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - April 10, 2010
Haha :)
HEYJUDE - April 10, 2010
TP: Jason, I see you have a very patient approach at the plate.
JH: Yeah, it’s kinda what I’m known for.
TP: That’s all well and good, but I think you need to make some changes to your approach.
JH: Oh? Like what?
TP: Here, watch this video footage of my star pupil, Jeff Francoeur, after he had incorporated my teachings.
JH: So, this is what I should be striving for?
TP: Yes. Make careful note of the wild flailing at pitches well outside the strike zone. You have to show pitchers that you’re not just going to take their pitches.
JH: Hmmm…I don’t know about this…
TP: Hey, I won a batting title. Don’t you think I know what I’m talking about here?
JH: Ok, I guess I’ll do as you say.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - April 10, 2010
Totally unfair
to blame TP for Francouer. Frenchy was born that was and even if TP had preached Barry Bonds’ philosophy, it wouldn’t have made a damn bit of difference.
Of course, TP isn’t preaching patience at the plate… Not sure what he’s preaching, actually. I can’t see any evidence that he’s harmed or helped any of our hitters.
Jacob Peterson - April 10, 2010
Francoeur's plate discipline may be worth watching this year.
He’s already drawn 3 walks, and had 7 other AB’s where he’s put the ball in play with 3 balls in the count.
Stephen Schmidt - April 10, 2010
He started out well both last year and the year before that. Don’t let that bum fool you.
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
Believe me, I'm a skeptic. I was on the DFA bandwagon all winter.
His PA’s have been impressive so far this spring and regular season though, the guy is actually taking sliders (even sliders in the zone) and only swinging on stuff in the zone. I don’t know if this will stick, but this little run he’s having isn’t the BABIP driven fluke he had last summer…he’s actually working the count to his favor and swinging at good stuff. I actually kind of wonder if maybe getting dumped by Atlanta was what he needed to pull his head out of his ass, because it must have gotten to the point where he was embarrased about what people were saying about him. I just hope this doesn’t cause Omar to do something dumb and trade Fernando. That seems like the typical stupid decision he would make.
Stephen Schmidt - April 10, 2010
This.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - April 10, 2010
I don't really blame Terry Pendleton for Frenchy's failures as a Brave...
It was just a joke. I needed a name to insert in there, so I went with the most humorous one, whether it’s fair to TP or not.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - April 10, 2010
I didnt like this umpires strike zone
Heyward was being patient and working the counts early in his at bats yesterday. The ump was giving the pitchers for both teams that outside corner yesterday. So when Heyward was smart and laid off of pitches that werent in his wheele house he wa sbeing rewarded with a bad strike call and found himself down in the count. Since the pitchers were getting that call they could throw it there all day and eventually he would have to swing at it. If there is a different ump in there tonight and certainly in the next series he may have an easier time. Heyward will be fine, he didnt seem at all rattled yesterday, and there will be many times during his career where he goes two games without a hit. There will also be many times where he’ll hit 3-4 homers in a series, we should have seen this coming since everyone has seen and heard so much about Heyward they already have a report on him. He’ll be fine
Shoert - April 10, 2010
He is a rookie, the umps are not going to give him the benefit that vets get.
homerlanding - April 10, 2010
You’re implying that umpires actually care whether the batter thought it was a strike or not (and whether that batter’s opinion carries weight – rookie vs. veteran)?
EricGreggWasPaidOff - April 10, 2010
I’m saying that if we take a pitch 1 inch off the plate- if Chipper Jones is batting it’s a ball but if a rookie is batting it’s too close to take and likely will be called a strike. Same thing goes for rookie and veteran pitchers. That’s just the way it is and always will be.
homerlanding - April 10, 2010
You seem to have missed my implication...
It is this: Umpires don’t care who the batter is. Most of them just seem to flip a coin to decide if it’s a ball or a strike. I’m still trying to figure out how they hide the coin toss from the players, cameras and fans in attendance, though. I’ll start researching that and get back to you with an answer.
EricGreggWasPaidOff - April 10, 2010
I don’t agree. MLB players and the umpires have good relationship and respect each other very much for the most part. I can’t tell you how many times I have went to resturaunt after a game and seen players from each team sitting with one or more umps from the game they just finished. That is something you just don’t see in other sports.
homerlanding - April 10, 2010
having said that
I’ve never seen anyone draw a walk like Chipper (maybe KJ); there is a difference. I don’t think it’s intentional by the umps, but there is definitely a different standard for Chipper, he takes a LOT of close pitches which go his way. Seemingly anyway. It may be as simple as familiarity with the umps or as complicated as body language at the plate (umpire mind trick).
Would be awesome to see that in a chart like above….hmmm, let’s see….
someguy1 - April 12, 2010
Excellent post, Scott.
This really backs up what we’ve been seeing, and what J-Hey needs to work on. In a way, this graph is very comforting. It shows that he’s really only been having trouble with one pitch—the low breaking ball. Once he gets that squared away, he’ll be golden (at least until pitchers find some other weakness… it’s a process).
Jacob Peterson - April 10, 2010
3/17 doesn't really scare me ...
Good to see (graphically) where he has struggled so far. Appreciate the post.
FrankyWren - April 10, 2010
So
I think this is just about the worst it will get for him at the plate wise.He will bounce back I think,he I think is trying to prove to everyone in the media he belongs here.He just needs to relax and do what he does best,look for a better game tonight.
BravesMania - April 10, 2010
You know what
I’d bet that Bobby had a meeting with Jay Hey either today or after yesterdays game. And he told him something along the lines of “you don’t gotta carry this team on your back, kid.”
Scott Coleman - April 10, 2010 via mobile
Right, I think so too
I mean, that’s why he’s been hitting 7th, after all. I’m not worried; he’ll calm down soon.
Jacob Peterson - April 10, 2010
Tonight kinda proved
That there is absolutely nothing wrong with The Jay Hey Kid.
Scott Coleman - April 11, 2010 via mobile
Sunday night
proved it more.
J-Freak - April 12, 2010
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Talking Chop to post a comment.