The Braves and their fans breathed a sigh of relief last season when the team was able to acquire Nate McLouth from Pittsburgh for spare parts, and end the Jordan Schafer experiment. He was a versatile center fielder who could use his speed to bat leadoff or use his power to hit lower in the order and drive in runs. The Braves plugged him right into the leadoff spot, where he performed decently until nagging injuries took their toll.
Turns out that Nate was also suffering from a bit of vision loss late last season that caused him some trouble during night games. That has been corrected this off-season by Lasik eye surgery, and all the other nagging injuries should be gone, and Nate should be 100% healthy. So why, then, is he only 2-for-38 this spring with a team-high 14 strikeouts (almost twice as many as anyone else on the Braves)? This should bring some doubt into our minds as to whether or not he should be the team's leadoff hitter.
There are other options, and today's Wednesday Braves "What If" will explore those options and ask you to vote on who you think should serve as the Braves leadoff hitter. The candidates are Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, and Melky Cabrera.
In 358 plate appearances Yunel Escobar has a line of .309/.371/.429 hitting leadoff, compared to his overall career numbers of .301/.375/.426 -- not much of a difference at all. That's Yunel; he's solid wherever you put him.
In just 70 plate appearances Martin Prado his a line of .234/..279/.328 hitting leadoff, compared to his overall career numbers of .307/.360/.451 -- those career numbers are almost an exact mirror of his slash stats when hitting second (.307/.354/.450) in the lineup. It certainly seems he's more suited for hitting second, but his leadoff sample size is too small to really read into what he might be able to do there.
In 297 plate appearances Melky Cabrera has a line of .290/.373/.408 hitting leadoff, compared to his overall career numbers of .269/.331/.385 -- the Melk-man seems to turn on the patience when he's hitting leadoff. He may also get better pitches to hit batting in front of the big bats in the middle of the order. Actually, when he hits ninth in the batting order (where he has had the most plate appearances) he has a slash line of .296/.338/.409, which is his highest batting average of any spot in the order. That's probably a result of hitting in front of Derek Jeter for several years, but it further illustrates that his patience and batting average may be tied to the quality of the pitches he sees.
So those are the three choices. I'm actually hesitant to throw out one more choice because it could skew the results, but in just 67 plate appearances Matt Diaz has a line of .421/.478/.561, which obviously doesn't even compare to his career line. Much of that good work (two-thirds) came late last year when Diaz was on fire no matter where he was hitting in the batting order. As much as we shouldn't read too much into Martin Prado's poor showing in his small sample size of plate appearances, we similarly shouldn't read too much into the good numbers of Diaz in such a small sample size. Still, I'll include him.
For comparison sake, Nate McLouth has a lead off line in 1229 plate appearances of .260/.345/.458, compared to a career line of .260/.342/.454 -- pretty darn similar.
0 recs | 48 comments
I vote Melky… I like marteeeen in the 2 spot and Yunel sixth to drive in runs
HansonManCrush - March 24, 2010 via mobile
spring training means nothing. wait for the regular season before worrying about these kinds of things
telemakhos - March 24, 2010
Getting harder to ignore 2-for-38.
TradeAndruw - March 24, 2010
Getting harder to ignore 14 strikeouts.
McCann and McWill - March 24, 2010
The ,
it’s just spring training excuseis about to run out, just sayin’.
HEYJUDE - March 25, 2010
Voted Melky.
I actually read somewhere that he is being considered as the guy if McLouth struggles. If he winds up the leadoff hitter and runs with it, then that trade looks even better.
MBraves! - March 24, 2010
I thought Nate just got contacts, not Lasik.
10-4 - March 24, 2010
I think that's right...
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2010/03/07/mclouth-ready-for-clean-slate-this-season/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog
He’s also using spring training to get adjusted to playing in his new contact lenses.
Mr. Sanchez - March 24, 2010
Mclouth is playing hurt, I'm telling you.
I vote Cabrera.
And I also vote absolutely NOT Yunel. He doesn’t see any pitches or grind at bats (which is necessary at the top of the order) and hes a monster RBI guy
Sid Bream's Moustache - March 24, 2010
I’m not exactly sure why “grinding” out at bats is important. Give me Yunel, he has the highest OBP of anyone on the team other than Chipper
jdunk - March 24, 2010
Matty D would like a word with you
J-Freak - March 25, 2010
Him and his 425 plate appearances. I’m talking regulars. Diaz has yet to shrug his platoon player status. You know what your getting with Escobar, but you can’t say the same for Diaz at this point.
jdunk - March 25, 2010
agreed
Andy Braves Fan - March 25, 2010
So I guess this assumes if McLouth continues to struggle...
we use him as the 4th OF instead of Melky since he and Diaz are both options? Fair enough.
I vote Esco, although that might move Prado lower to allow for R/L/R/L type balance. A lineup of
Esco
Chipper
Heyward
Glaus
McCann
Diaz/McLouth
McLouth/Diaz/Melky
Prado
That said, I think Bobby will tinker for a few months until he figures out what he likes best. Gotta love the versatility this team has across the board when you look at the supposed regulars plus the bench. Lots of choices for Bobby to fool around with, especially once the season starts and we can see who’s hot, who’s cold, etc.
Mr. Sanchez - March 24, 2010
Melk Man
He’s making better contact and getting on base more than Mclouth at this point. ST numbers don’t matter a whole lot, that’s true, but Mclouth’s K rate at this point is what is frightening. Maybe the platoon shifts from Melky/Diaz to Mclouth/Diaz.
murph35 - March 24, 2010 via mobile
as a 4th outfielder can he start enough?
can melky lead off as a fourth outfielder? Can we get him in enough games to be a sub for the outfield and still be in enough games to be a regular in the batting order?
If mclouth ends up the 4th outfielder are we not a severely lesser team?
And are we considering a platoon at leadoff completely out of the question?
I didn’t even vote
willlinn - March 24, 2010
P. Diddy does not approve.
McCann and McWill - March 24, 2010
+1
J-Freak - March 25, 2010
If the Melky/Diaz platoon option had been offered, it would have gotten my vote.
Since, it wasn’t, I had to vote for Matty.
And while we’re platooning LF, let’s also platoon CF in the #8 spot—at least until McLouth shows us that Spring Training thus far has been a fluke.
Diaz/Melky (75/25 split)
Prado
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Esco
Tower of Terror
McLouth/Melky (75/25 split)
Pitcher
I hope Bobby settles into this lineup after a few weeks. Anyone else agree?
Cooper'sTown - March 24, 2010
dare we discuss heyward
He’s going to be an on base machine with his patience and he can run pretty well. Bobby of course would never put a rookie there because he’s old school though
granman29 - March 24, 2010 via mobile
I like this idea
Especially believing that he won’t show his true power right away.
EyePod - March 24, 2010
I agree
http://bit.ly/apK9HT
baseballbrett13 - March 24, 2010
Career wOBA and ISO
McLouth – .351 & .194
Diaz – .353 & .149
Prado – .353 & .144
Yunel – .352 & .125
Cabrera – .316 & .115
McCann – .364 & .204
Glaus – .367 & .241
Jones – .404 & .233
Heyward (projected by ZiPS) – .343 & .154
I list these numbers because we need to look at who our best hitters are. A hitter’s spot in the line-up doesn’t carry any particular meaning. Your best hitters should get the most plate appearances. Period. Therefore, any one of Diaz/Prado/Escobar would be fine hitting first, as they are all above-average hitters and none of them has a ton of power. McLouth shouldn’t be hitting first, since you don’t want to waste his power. Therefore (Lord, I hate writing a line-up, but unfortunately it can’t be helped):
Escobar
Jones
Glaus
McCann
McLouth
Diaz
Heyward
Prado
The last three spots should be interchangeable, but you get the idea. Listing Cabrera as an option to start on a contending team is ridiculous. He is an average defender (granted, average in CF is pretty good, but still…) and a below-average hitter. Again, this type of player has no place in the Braves’ starting lineup on a regular basis. Anyways, just my $0.02.
buzzdeadwax - March 24, 2010
Thanks for this. Can we sticky this on the front page somewhere so all this nonsense talk of Milky as a starter and/or leadoff hitter can cease once and for all? It’s giving me a headache.
J-Freak - March 25, 2010
Completely agree. Putting a bad hitter like cabrera in a spot where he will get the most plate appearances is idiotic
granman29 - March 24, 2010 via mobile
He's looked great this pre season. Maybe he had too much scrutiny in NY?
EyePod - March 24, 2010
Or maybe ST numbers don't count for much?
J-Freak - March 25, 2010
I assume McLouth will come around and have his typical season (perhaps even a better one due to correcting the vision problem). However I’d still rather have him in the bottom 3rd of the lineup. His homerun power is more valuable than his steals and he doesn’t get on base any better than the other leadoff candidates. I’d alternate Cabrera and Diaz at leadoff depending on matchups and have McLouth hitting 7th or 8th. My lineup would be something like
Diaz
Prado
Jones
Glaus
McCann
Escobar
McLouth
Cabrera
The exact order could vary based on match ups, but I’d probably have Prado, Jones, and Escobar hitting in those same spots every day. McCann and Glaus could flip flop depending on the starting pitcher.
redwards95 - March 24, 2010
Anyone else shocked to see Melky running away with this...
I’m surprised he’s even in the lead, let alone as far ahead of the others as he currently sits.
Mr. Sanchez - March 24, 2010
Half the TC population has lost their minds
Only explanation I can think of. He’s clearly inferior to the 8 players I mentioned in my post above. And yet, because he’s apparently had some hits in Spring Fucking Training, he’s now one of our best hitters. It’s a good thing we don’t get to make out the lineup card.
buzzdeadwax - March 24, 2010
This
I voted Prado. I feel his skill set at the plate is the best fit for a leadoff hitter, and as has already been pointed out, his sample size at that position in the batting order is too small to make me worry a lot about plugging him in there.
Diaz and Escobar should be hitting lower in the order where their RBI potential is maximized. Melky should be coming off the bench, period, unless McLouth can’t get it turned around through April.
Chopaholic - March 24, 2010
mclouth...not the 4th of.
If name doesn’t turn it around …u find a way to do him….and let him “rehab” at aaa or extended spring training. He wouldn’t be able to correct his problem w 8 ab’s a week.
calbers - March 24, 2010 via mobile
dl not do...him. mobile phone keyboard.
calbers - March 24, 2010 via mobile
Freudian slip much?
J-Freak - March 25, 2010
Escobar should lead off no question
Escobar and McLouth have very similar SLG, so why does everything think we NEED Escobar to drive in runs and McLouth to lead off? McLouth has more raw power, and if you put him in a lower pressure spot, he can do a lot of damage with runners on base. Escobar OBP at .370+ is way better than McLouth at .350. Sure he has speed, but Cox doesn’t steal anyways.
Melky at leadoff doesn’t seem smart, considering he kinda sucks. Get Escobar, a far better hitter, a lot more at bats, and on base more often to score more runs, pretty simple.
Diaz SHOULD NOT lead off. Against RHP he is terrible and wouldn’t help, and he demolishes LHP, so wouldn’t you rather have him in a position to hit with runners on? ie 5th or 6th.
Prado has been excellent in the 2 hole. Never tries to do too much. He has lower OBP than Escobar, but he can do the small things right, like move the runner over, and he is a high contact line drive hitter. He really is perfect for the 2 spot.
To me it seems like a no-brainer. The real debate should be between Escobar and McLouth. They can both drive in a bunch of runs if you put them lower in the order. Probably would have the same # of RBI if they were both given a chance to bat 6th (in parallel universes with the same team). But the team will score more runs in total with Escobar getting on base early and often, and getting more at bats.
Alex H - March 24, 2010
this!
jdunk - March 24, 2010
Few people like this idea though, everyone gets caught up in Yunel’s “mythical” RISP ability, but fail to realize that if he reverts to the mean w/RISP we is likely the worst candidate for the #6 since he has less power than anyone in our starting lineup.
jdunk - March 24, 2010
exactly
One thing that is clearly no fluke is Escobars ability to get on base. Getting on base means creating runs. We all know what kind of damage McLouth CAN do. In Pitt when he batted 3rd he hit 26 HR, 94 RBI, and 46 doubles. These are the kinds of numbers we could really use farther down in the order, where power is way more important than OBP. I love Escobar, but I just don’t see him getting anywhere near those numbers any time soon. I think our most valuable lineup has a escobar leading off, and McLouth driving in runs.
Alex H - March 24, 2010
I think in that year McClouth only starting hitting 3rd....
much later in the year…and if you look It hink you will find that his numbers SLIPPED when he dropped to 3rd.
calbers - March 24, 2010
since mcstrikeout if fackin up….
mattyd
jhey
larry
glaus
heap
esco
melky
odarp
lefty/righty switch for melky and mattyd.
lemke2blauser2bream - March 24, 2010
A couple things....
1) Why is everyone so down on Melky? I am not thinking is a savior of any kind…nor do I think he is part of the Yankee CF lineage….DiMaggio, Mantle, Williams, Cabrerra…no..not exactly. However, lets take Melky for what he is…he is a 25 yr old switch hitter…who went up and down a lot with the Yankees…and has had mixed success. I realize that his career obp is .331 but he doesn’t strike out a lot and at 25 it would not be unreasonable to expect hisOBP of .336 to climb to .350 or so…would it? Not sure if he is the best option for the lead off spot or not..but I think everyone is making him out to be worse then he is. Keep in mind that if he is leading off that means he is likely playing CF…in which case I would be a little more worried about his defense..then his offense.
2) Someone said that spot in the order doesnt carry any particular meaning….perhaps you are right in that it shouldn’t matter in the way of stature or role. (ie you don’t bat your 1B first…just because you expect production out of your 1B). However, to say it doesn’t matter would be insane. Yes you want to get your better hitters in the batters box as many times as possible. However, if you don’t think where in the order you hit….largely relative to the other around you….go look at the Barry Bonds effect. Some guys made a living hitting AROUND Barry Bonds (ie Jeff Kent and Rich Aruillia). Rather then pitch to bonds..teams would pitch to these guys…you don’t think placement in the lineup mattered to them? Likewise, you don’t think having Kent behing him and Rich Aurillia hitting around him impacted Bonds? If those two hadn’t been hitting..Bonds would never have gotten anything to hit. You don’t think Tony LaRussa knows that the place where you will see the best pitches is the spot in front of Pujols? Of course….You don’t also think that have a guy with good OBp and decent speed means a lot ot Pujols? The idea that a pitcher has to pitch from the stretch to Pujols…OR ignore the runner makes a huge impact on that AB. For the Braves the best place to see good pitches will be in the #2 hole. Who can take advantage of those ABs are going to be important…probably more important then who is in the #1 hole.
calbers - March 24, 2010
On the Yankees line...
at same age, Melky has been a bit better than Bernie Williams. Both switch hitting CFs with no particularly exceptional skill, just solid all around. If he can play guitar like Bernie, we’d have a match. Otherwise, Williams was certainly no more accomplished than Cabrera at 25, and just about to start putting up the numbers we think of with Bernie.
Mr. Sanchez - March 25, 2010
Hmmm...
Bonds walked 177, 198, 148, and 232 times between 01 and 04. Obviously, it didn’t matter who was hitting around him – he still got almost nothing to hit. Pujols is Pujols, even though his supporting cast looks similar to Bonds. As an illustration,
Pujols’ 2009 wOBA: .449
The Cardinals’ second best wOBA (with at least 300 PA’s): .337
Pujols 2008 wOBA: .458
The Cardinals’ second best wOBA (with at least 300 PA’s): .406
It doesn’t look like Pujols suffered much by being surrounded by seven guys who were league-average or worse. So basically, to reiterate my point – if a hitter is good, he should hit more often. I actually never argued that hitters don’t benefit from being surrounded by other good hitters, even though there isn’t any concrete evidence to support that claim. However, I feel pretty certain that the 09 cardinals and Bonds’ Giants would have scored more runs if they had hit Pujols and Bonds second, instead of third.
buzzdeadwax - March 25, 2010
If Nate is out...
I would hit it this way….
Melky
Escobar (I personally think hitting him here maximizes his OBP, his capabilities of hitting doubles, and his ability to drive fastballs in front of chipper)
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Diaz
Heyward
Prado (He is a switch hitter…works the at bat and doesn’t run great…is the best fit for the 8 hole in this line up)
calbers - March 24, 2010
Prado is not a switch hitter
Swo12bv - March 25, 2010
Prado <—
Escobar |
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Diaz
Heyward
J-Freak - March 25, 2010
I hate my keyboard.
Prado
Escobar
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Diaz
Heyward
Melky
FTFY
J-Freak - March 25, 2010
I vote Yunel
whoever you put in the leadoff spot will be getting the most AB’s of anyone on the team (or at least generally does). Melky, Prado, and Diaz are nice hitters, but Yunel is one of the best hitters on the team. I would prefer having out best hitter get the most AB’s personally. Therefore he is my choice.
Andy Braves Fan - March 25, 2010
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