Good to see Chipper's lobbying for the man without a nickname
Chip’s right though, we need Heyward starting Opening Day. How dumb are we gonna feel if we miss out on the playoffs by one game because we waited to bring up Heyward for a few weeks?
but people sometimes misuse WAR. WAR doesn’t determine an actual win of a ballgame, it just shows a players worth (1 WAR is about 10 runs, I think). Say Heyward hits a game winning double, or scores a run that proves to be the difference in one game and we get a win. That won’t count as “1 WAR”, but it will count for a win.
Playing games like this is beyond unreasonable. We cannot assume that Heyward would have hit that HR in the 6th inning that we needed when Melky grounded out instead.
but you can’t help but wonder what could’ve happened. The bottom line is to put the best team on the field as often as you can because that’s going to maximize the amount of wins a team gets.
The plan should be to get the man signed long-term before he ever hits free agency. If the plan is to keep him while he’s cheap and then to let him walk before he earns any real money, then yes, keep him down.
I can understand keeping him down for 2 weeks. 2 months, though, is just asking to be second-guessed later.
Not having Heyward for 2 weeks is preferable to not having him for a whole year.
We can’t assume that he is going to sign a contract. He will arguably be the best player in the game when his FA years come around. Let’s not pretend that he doesn’t know that fact.
what type of player he will be in six years. If there is a chance that he gives us one extra win the first two weeks, I say go for it. Remember, that the two weeks only buys us a fourth arbitration year as opposed to a free agent year. If he is all he is cracked up to be, the difference in salary between a fourth arbitration year and a free agent year won’t be that much; they estimate that a third arbitration year is approximately 80% of free agent salary, so even if he is a $20 million dollar player by then, we are only talking about $4 million (and that is conservatively assuming that a fourth arbitration year is still only 80%), and well, the Braves can afford that. If the extra win he might get us is the difference between the playoffs and not the playoffs, we’ll make the money back anyway.
Remember, the issue isn’t another year of Heyward; if we pay him market value, we can keep him as a free agent. The issue is the salary difference between fourth year arbitration and free agency, which just isn’t that much.
The Rockies were .9 WAR better than the Braves last year
And finished 6 games ahead. The Braves were 0.7 WAR better than Philadelphia last year, but finished 7 games behind. The Braves were 3.9 WAR better than the Cardinals last year.
WAR =/= Wins. Imagine if the Braves miss the playoffs by one game-can you say that the .4 WAR difference Heyward might make over 10 games would not translate into one more win? I can’t, and you can’t.
Chipper isn’t exactly going way out on a limb here.
On the other hand, maybe he’s concerned that Wren could still elect to hold him down on the farm temporarily for future arbitration and free agency qualification reasons.
There’s an importance of the feelings in the clubhouse. Some type of correlation exists between that and the team’s success. Chipper is making the team’s judgment that they will be pissed if Heyward isn’t playing. Put that in a stat, mother peakers…
He’s not trying to. Never heard anything to suggest Chipper isn’t already a hard worker. Chipper is just being honest about his feelings(always loved that about him) about the Braves prospects w/ & w/o Heyward.
Good to see Chipper's lobbying for the man without a nickname
Chip’s right though, we need Heyward starting Opening Day. How dumb are we gonna feel if we miss out on the playoffs by one game because we waited to bring up Heyward for a few weeks?
alligatorimpersonator - March 10, 2010
How dumb are we to think that Heyward will have a 18+ WAR value this season?
justincredubil02 - March 10, 2010
ha I had a feeling someone might say that,
but people sometimes misuse WAR. WAR doesn’t determine an actual win of a ballgame, it just shows a players worth (1 WAR is about 10 runs, I think). Say Heyward hits a game winning double, or scores a run that proves to be the difference in one game and we get a win. That won’t count as “1 WAR”, but it will count for a win.
alligatorimpersonator - March 10, 2010
So would a Melky single.
Playing games like this is beyond unreasonable. We cannot assume that Heyward would have hit that HR in the 6th inning that we needed when Melky grounded out instead.
justincredubil02 - March 10, 2010
No, but it sure would have been an exciting at bat..
bwellnjonesco - March 10, 2010
no, you can't assume that,
but you can’t help but wonder what could’ve happened. The bottom line is to put the best team on the field as often as you can because that’s going to maximize the amount of wins a team gets.
alligatorimpersonator - March 10, 2010
Wouldnt that mean sending him down for a couple of weeks so we can get a whole extra YEAR out of him?
Doghnut - March 10, 2010
It depends on what your plan is with him
The plan should be to get the man signed long-term before he ever hits free agency. If the plan is to keep him while he’s cheap and then to let him walk before he earns any real money, then yes, keep him down.
I can understand keeping him down for 2 weeks. 2 months, though, is just asking to be second-guessed later.
Bronn - March 10, 2010
I am a fan of the 2 week thing.
justincredubil02 - March 10, 2010
I am not. At all.
fandave - March 10, 2010
Not having Heyward for 2 weeks is preferable to not having him for a whole year.
We can’t assume that he is going to sign a contract. He will arguably be the best player in the game when his FA years come around. Let’s not pretend that he doesn’t know that fact.
justincredubil02 - March 10, 2010
We also can presume...
what type of player he will be in six years. If there is a chance that he gives us one extra win the first two weeks, I say go for it. Remember, that the two weeks only buys us a fourth arbitration year as opposed to a free agent year. If he is all he is cracked up to be, the difference in salary between a fourth arbitration year and a free agent year won’t be that much; they estimate that a third arbitration year is approximately 80% of free agent salary, so even if he is a $20 million dollar player by then, we are only talking about $4 million (and that is conservatively assuming that a fourth arbitration year is still only 80%), and well, the Braves can afford that. If the extra win he might get us is the difference between the playoffs and not the playoffs, we’ll make the money back anyway.
Remember, the issue isn’t another year of Heyward; if we pay him market value, we can keep him as a free agent. The issue is the salary difference between fourth year arbitration and free agency, which just isn’t that much.
cavebird - March 11, 2010
I haven’t looked at it like that. That is a great point.
justincredubil02 - March 11, 2010
The Rockies were .9 WAR better than the Braves last year
And finished 6 games ahead. The Braves were 0.7 WAR better than Philadelphia last year, but finished 7 games behind. The Braves were 3.9 WAR better than the Cardinals last year.
WAR =/= Wins. Imagine if the Braves miss the playoffs by one game-can you say that the .4 WAR difference Heyward might make over 10 games would not translate into one more win? I can’t, and you can’t.
Bronn - March 10, 2010
Agreed.
alligatorimpersonator - March 10, 2010
Chipper isn’t exactly going way out on a limb here.
On the other hand, maybe he’s concerned that Wren could still elect to hold him down on the farm temporarily for future arbitration and free agency qualification reasons.
fandave - March 10, 2010
If he doesn't break camp with Atlanta
I predict a full scale revolt and riot at the Turner Field.
Mountngrown - March 10, 2010
People have to actually show up at Turner Field for a riot to break out.
bravos1984 - March 10, 2010
+1
romone_braves91 - March 10, 2010
Maybe Chipper should just work on his swing and not try to play GM.
TradeAndruw - March 10, 2010
There’s an importance of the feelings in the clubhouse. Some type of correlation exists between that and the team’s success. Chipper is making the team’s judgment that they will be pissed if Heyward isn’t playing. Put that in a stat, mother peakers…
bwellnjonesco - March 10, 2010
Awesome comment.
fandave - March 10, 2010
He’s not trying to. Never heard anything to suggest Chipper isn’t already a hard worker. Chipper is just being honest about his feelings(always loved that about him) about the Braves prospects w/ & w/o Heyward.
FitzFan - March 12, 2010
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