This player preview was written by Corey Crocker, who posts here as palioc33.
I've seen many people throughout this offseason request that Kenshin Kawakami be traded, or that Frank Wren should never have signed him. "It's a bad contract." "It's preventing us from signing a bat." I don't think they were watching the same pitcher I was last season. In 2009, Kawakami was coming over from Japan having never pitched in the Major Leagues nor having ever lived in America. That is a big adjustment for anybody to make. Understanding this I expected him to struggle some for the first month or two. And right on cue he didn't have a really good April, posting a 7.06 ERA and a 1 - 3 W-L record.
Given that this was the first look people had at Kawakami, they naturally assumed he wasn't that good of a pitcher. But then came May, or should I say the start against the Blue Jays and Roy Halladay. Most people said we shouldn't even play the game. Just let the Blue Jays take the win vs. Kawakami. He of course ended up out-pitching Roy Halladay with 8 shutout innings for the win. And if you look at the rest of his stats for May and June there is a clear sign that he had adjusted to life in America and the style of play in the Major Leagues. He posted an ERA of 3.03 and 3.33, in May and June, respectively, even posting a .208 average allowed for the month of June.
He continued to pitch well into September when he was moved to the bullpen to make way for Hudson's return from injury. This was a smart move because he mainly pitched in 6-man rotations in Japan and the move prevented him from overextending himself at the end of the year due to exhaustion. (He ended up with a 2.63 ERA in September.)
Now the question is what can we expect from him heading into 2010. Will he be better? Will he be worse? Most people first look at the W-L record of a pitchers performance. However, Kawakami's 7 - 12 record is grossly skewed. In his 25 starts he received the third lowest run support in the league. You obviously can't win many ballgames if you don't get any runs. Another reason is that he didn't pitch deeply in many ballgames. During the season he had the propensity to walk people early in the game and reach the 100 pitch mark in the 5th or 6th inning, and Bobby didn't want his pitch count to get too high.
Kawakami, however, should get his walk rate under control this year. If you look at his stats from Japan you see that his walk rate last year was double his normal walk rate in Japan. He is a control pitcher and with a year under his belt he should return to being the pitcher he was in Japan. That means he will get deeper into ballgames with more chances to win games. And we can only hope he gets better run support. With our rotation full of 4 high profile pitchers in front of Kawakami, he will have the ability to stay out of the spotlight and surprise teams that are worrying more about the other guys.
Thanks to Corey for a great preview.
0 recs | 18 comments
Isn’t the ball size different in Japan?
(That’s what she said.)
ChrisK562 - February 23, 2010
Not exactly
Asia = Horsehide
USA = Cowhide
It’s minuscule, but the surface of an American baseball is slightly slicker comparatively, and there’ve been mentions of tighter seams, but it’s clearly something that is accustomed to pretty quickly, otherwise no pitcher would be capable of making the transition.
royhobbs - February 23, 2010
on kawakami..
i really dont think his overall numbers will be any better. however, i do think he will become more durable and will be able to pitch 180-200 innings this year at the same quality as before.
ryan c - February 23, 2010
KK...
The best 5th starter in the bigs? He certainly might be.
I think we can expect a slightly lower walk rate, an ERA around 4, and about 180 innings. Being in the 5th slot, and thus getting a few extra days off, should help. Hopefully, Bobby won’t skip him when there’s an off day; A), there’s no reason to, since he’s pretty good; and B), having KK take his turn will give the other guys an extra day.
Jacob Peterson - February 23, 2010
Sounds good to me.
The Keith Lockhart Era - February 25, 2010
I love this guy. You couldn’t ask for a better 5th in the rotation. I hope he faces alot of aces this year. He gets up for the good pitchers and just lays down shutout innings.
Rich Town - February 23, 2010
His season does seem to have been heavily under-rated
by Braves fans. posting a sub 4 ERA with 150+ innings is impressive. I really like him as a 5th starter, that is for sure.
Nice preview.
Andy Braves Fan - February 23, 2010
i wouldnt necessarily expect his walk rate to be drastically better, while his walk rate was better in Japan, the game is different over there as well.
From what I understand there less propensity to take a walk in Japan than there is here… SO pitchers get used to throw outside and around the zone and having hitter chase pitchers….whereas here hitter are more disciplined and dont go outside the zone as much (of course there are exceptions….FYF)
I think what we saw last year, overall, is what we should expect this year…around a 4 ERA and a very solid back of the rotation pitcher, who will occassionally eat up the bullpen with a 4-5 inning start
Swo12bv - February 23, 2010
I think KK will have a great season – not an ace or Hanson-esque season, mind you, but a decent, respectable season.
I expect the walk rate to drop to the rate that it pretty much leveled off at last season, but I also expect his K rate to increase somewhat. I am surprised that you didn’t mention that in your article – he was a good K pitcher in Japan, but last season wasn’t that great here.
I think KK could be one of the best #3 or #4 starters in the NL, and he is our #5. Let the good times roll.
justincredubil02 - February 23, 2010
He’s the best 5th starter in the bigs and is close to the top with 4th starters
bravesforever16 - February 23, 2010 via mobile
Maybe Bobby should figure out the rotations of all the teams they’re playing against this season and set his rotation up such that KK only pitches against the opposing team’s #1 starter (or whoever the best pitcher they’re facing in the particular series is) every time out. If he replicates what he did last season in that situation, I predict him to have a record of 24 and 3, with an ERA of 1.19 – Cy Young award time!!
EricGreggWasPaidOff - February 23, 2010
I would not be at all surprised if KK leads the team in wins this year. He has some absolutely nasty stuff.
homerlanding - February 23, 2010
I really wouldn’t be surprised if KK has the quietest best season in the NL this year. Not to say he’s an ace, but I’m not exaggerating either. I think he’ll fly under the radar at the back of the rotation, put up a sub-4 ERA and maybe crack double digit wins. We shall see of course, but he could make a nice pick up for fantasy teams come midseason or so.
beeswax - February 23, 2010
I think you just described his 2009…
justincredubil02 - February 23, 2010
well, kinda. I do think people sort of wrote him off after his horrible April though and because of his win-loss record.
beeswax - February 24, 2010
He’ll be more comfortable with 2010 being his 2nd MLB season. Adding Saito and another interpreter, he’s got 3 Japanese guys to pal around with. He’s an incredible #5 pitcher, if he gets the run support this years team is capable of producing, he could end up with a bunch of wins. I hope his shoulder holds up and he can increase his innings.
bighop - February 23, 2010
I was really impressed with KK after the first month or so of the season last year, and I think the way he pitched last summer is more the guy we’ll see this year. Fifth starter certainly, maybe even fourth.
John Holton - February 23, 2010
Factoid
I have gave it a good bit of thought as to why he performed so good against the better pitchers in the league and have come up with this possible answer….
In Japan they do not show many MLB games in Japan….but do show (or did show) games involving primarily three teams….Seattle (ichiro) Yankees (Matsui) and Boston (Dice K). They may show them playing each other or When they are up against a big name pitcher…
This has been going on since Nomo was in the league. So, naturally seeing that there are only 7 main network stations (think stations with news programs along with other programing) if you had the choice of watching the equvilent of a flower decoration show or a baseball game from America featuring a former Nipon leaguer the your but is glued to the tube watching baseball!
…..therefore I think that in his mind he has already pitched that game and has put the thought of pressure behind him and only concentrates on getting the batters out.
bravestatoo - February 28, 2010
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Talking Chop to post a comment.