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Talking Chop

The Tuesday Braves "What If?"... The Jurrjens Jolt

Perhaps the start of a new series here at Talking Chop, the "Wednesday What If?" It will be a funny trivia question years from now to ask what day did the first Wednesday What If appear on... it was a Tuesday, silly. Anyway, I had the idea today, and so I ran with it (but expect this as more of a Wednesday thing going forward, unless it appears on some other day).

Today's What If is an easy one to conjure up:  What if Jair Jurrjens is unable to start the season? Who takes his place in the rotation? I suppose this question should really be, who do YOU want to see take his place in the rotation (should the MRI on his shoulder come back with bad results). Hopefully this question will never need to be answered by the Braves, but if it were being answered by you... well, here's your chance.

Poll
What if Jair Jurrjens is unable to start the season? Who do YOU want to see take his place in the Braves rotation?
Kris Medlen
1050 votes
Mike Minor
100 votes
Todd Redmond
24 votes
Jo-Jo Reyes
106 votes
John Smoltz
466 votes

1746 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  136 comments

Comments

Why is this even a question? Has to be Medlen.

Yes, Medlen without a doubt. I know you can’t place too much on it, but remember when he was making Hanson look like a 2nd tier pitcher in the minors?

I actually voted for Jo-Jo.

This

Medlen’s great out of the pen, and the rotation needs an LHP anyway.

Not this

I’ll take 7 innings of Medlen vs. 7 innings of Reyes over an inning here and there from Medlen in the bullpen any day. Our bullpen is still strong without him. Being lefty is great but getting people out is even better.

What makes you think Reyes can’t get people out? He’s dazzled for years in AAA and is due for significant positive regression in his MLB numbers. (Check out his LOB%, HR/FB, and BABIPs in Atlanta.) In 100 IPs, he’s probably good for a 4.50-5.00 FIP, which is perfectly fine for a 5th starter.

How about the fact that he’s struggled mightily to get people out in 37 big league starts so far. He may be useful someday but Medlen can be very good right now.

xFIPs of 4.61 and 4.51 two years running hardly constitute someone who can’t get people out. Please don’t tell me you’re looking at his ERA.

And how exactly do you know Medlen can be very good at starting right now? On the basis of his 4 big league starts?

I agree that Reyes has been unlucky but at some point you have to start winning games. We’ve given him the ball 37 times and it’s rarely been pretty. At some point you have to turn indicators into performance. It’s time to move on. Medlen pitched excellent last year. He had some control issues early but that’s out of character and was lights out after he got that under control. Yes, he’ll have to prove it as a starter but I’d much rather give him a shot based on what I’ve seen rather than hope Reyes can finally turn it around.

You’re giving up far too early on Reyes, but I doubt I’m going to change your mind, so we’ll just have to agree to disagree.

haha

F* the Prado/KJ argument

I actually wouldn’t give up on him. I really think he’ll be useful at some point but I just don’t think that time is right now when we have Medlen. Medlen’s xFIP was 3.70 and I just think there’s a lot more upside there.

Relievers xFIPs typically jump when they convert to starting.

Good to know. Is that mainly due to the k-rate since a reliever can focus more on that in short spurts?

Partially. Often the platoon differentials help too (even for RPs who pitch to both sides, they will often be deployed in ways that maximize their effectiveness).

I seem to remember some work a little while back on RP LOBs, but I can’t find it now. I think the mean for RPs was higher, like 76 or perhaps even as high as 78%.

Oh FIP FAP!! He is a crap pitcher who can barely throw strikes. FIP is not the be all end all of pitching. Stop looking a tone stat.

I ment one stat

I think we’ve tried that experiment a few times already.

exactly. Thats why I voted Medlen. Haven’t we been through enough Jo-Jo to say he’s at best an average stop gap guy?

No, we haven’t. Reyes has 190 MLB IPs over three seasons with 64% strand rate and 15% HR/FB rates. That doesn’t prove anything.

I'm going to look at his '08 line

thats only fair. He pitched a full season then. And disclaimer- my ability to use stats is squat, so I can only base this argument on the basics:
He let up 77 runs in 113 innings, just about a run every 2/3 of an inning, a 10.9 H/9 ratio, an ERA+ of 72, etc.
Granted he had a 1:1.5 ratio of BB:K and a couple other good stats, but I just don’t think it cuts it.

Anyone who’s better with this can jump in and either save me or rip me apart (Stats)

Oh boy. Where to start?

anywhere, even I’ll enjoy it

LOL. Seriously, though. Just make fangraphs a daily read. It’ll help immensely with the whole “stats thing.”

explain one thing

Jo-Jo flat out rips up the minors, why such a large “failure” in the bigs? What I’m trying to say, why isn’t he an average level pitcher?

He will be. It’s the problem with small sample sizes. A 46% strand rate last year is just insanity. I’ve never even seen anyone that far off the mean. Virtually all pitchers hover around 72%. For a guy to be at 65% means a big positive reversion is coming. 46%? That’s just crazy.

In 2008, he was, to a lesser extent, also a victim of bad luck, in LOB, BABIP, and HR/FB.

Now, the counter argument against Reyes, which is potentially valid, is that he has demonstrated a problem keeping the ball in the park in his brief time in the big leagues. His HR/FBs are inflated. Most big league pitchers tend to revert to a mean of approximately 10%—anything above that means the pitcher is usually just suffering from bad luck. However, there are guys who consistently put up HR/FBs above 10%—for them, their baselines are higher. Reyes could be one of those, but in my mind the jury is still out on that. His HR/FB rates in the minors were excellent and his HR/FB numbers remain inflated despite increasing GB numbers.

Bottom line, Reyes has been unlucky in his 190 IPs in the bigs. He shows some very strong core skills, including a K/9 over 7 and GB rates approaching 50%. He also has some weaknesses (young LHPs usually do), including an inflated HR/FB and poor control. He may grow out of the latter and the former could just be bad luck. Time will tell. But right now he pitches like a guy who should post a 4.50 ERA without any luck-induced influences.

Given all of this, it’s worth it in my mind to keep Medlen in the pen, where the Braves know he can succeed, and give Reyes an honest shot to stick in the rotation.

Aha! that makes sense. Still, why waste meaningful games when you can give him that shot in ST.

Or we could just avoid this damn argument by getting the MRI results back

I guess I don’t see it as wasting games. Luck balances out, that’s what it does. Even if Reyes’ HR/FB rates don’t come down (and really, they should, the Ted suppressed the hell out of HRs last year, so for Reyes to put up a 15% number is just bizarre), he’s still a 4.75-5.00 ERA pitcher, which is perfectly fine for a #5.

And ST isn’t enough time nor against the right competition, honestly. Unlike others, I do see some value in having a lefty in the rotation, especially in a division like the NL East. Also unlike others, I worry about a Medlen-less bullpen, because I’m just not sold on the health of Wagner and Saito (and I worry about the impact of starting on Medlen’s arm).

Agreed on just getting Jurrjens heatlhy, though!

I'm again going to disagree

I’m afraid to give up games in early April/May. Let’s be honest- this 2010 team is good, but not kickass 1998 Braves where we won 106 games and won the division by 18 games. I believe we can beat the Phillies, but it would be close, so I’m afraid to give away games on a Jo-Jo experiment, which is why I want his fate to be decided in ST, even if that isn’t the best way.

I also think that the ’pen is well enough without Medlen, along the lines of EOF/Wags/Saito/Moylan and whomever else. It could get by during the time that JJ would be down, assuming it was short

If "luck balances out"...

shouldn’t it have done so sometime in his 37 career starts? Small sample size is a crock of shit. He’s been up enough, and been hit hard often enough. Bruce Chen part two.

Its not that good a site to read. Its good for looking up things, but the writing, not so much.

Or make you think you know everything...

because of some funky baseball-style algebra.

Some of the stuff really does fall into the ‘if I massage the numbers enough I can make them say anything I want’ category. Basically, if somebody thought Reyes (or whoever) sucked, they could pretty much use those same numbers to prove it.

Based on Reyes’s career LOB and HR/FB rates, he’s probably due for a significant regression. That means that his ERA is misleading, in this case by a very large margin. Hits allowed are not the proper way to judge pitchers, since pitchers do not have perfect control over which batted balls fall in and which ones do not.

Try using fangraphs instead of B-Ref’s stats.

Fair, I see your point

I tried to stay away from ERA (if anyone should, it should be us)

Pitchers don’t have perfect control over Ks, BBs, and HRs. They have a huge influence on hits allowed.

Really?...

giving up hits often and in mass quantities is a bad way to judge a P? What the hell are they on the hill for if its not get guys to make outs more often than hits? I understand the advanced stat argument, but at some point, he simply isn’t getting the job done no matter how many variables and funky math equations you look at.

I like Reyes, but at this point, unfortunately, I think he’s one of those guys that Bobby is never going to trust, as such, he’d never be given the chance to pitch through adversity. He needs a chance to pitch somewhere that he’ll be given a spot in the rotation to start the year, and the confidence from the team to know that he’s not going to lose it with a couple of bad outings.

This. Bobby never lets him work through anything. It’s hard to get better at the Major League level, or any level really, if you can’t fight through a tough inning or two.

Successful GMs don’t make decisions based on what they think their managers might or might not do. Managers report to GMs, not vice versa.

In addition, regress that strand rate from 45% to 72%, and a lot of those “tough innings” evaporate.

The 45% Strand Rate, however...

…was based upon an incredibly small sample size. While Reyes’s AAA numbers have been good, his K/BB numbers in the majors do not exactly inspire confidence. There is a chance he could put it together, but I think it is fair to call it an open question right now whether Reyes is just a AAAA pitcher.

Sure, I’m not saying Reyes is a lock to be a quality MLB starter. But some of the ignorance on this thread (and outright hostility to advanced metrics) is startling.

In any event, it seems like the Braves may not need to worry about this, since JJ’s MRI appears to be clean.

The hostility, assuming you are implying my comments...

isn’t towards the metrics themselves, it’s towards those that feel advanced metrics give them some secret key to who’s good and who’s not, and the true deciding factor of who’s better than who on the field.

And as for the “ignorance”, one could say the same about your refusal to acknowledge Reyes’ poor performance and significant struggles.

How many tough innings does he need to fight through cb...

before we realize he’s a AAAA pitcher? The guy has been smacked around often enough in the bigs. Maybe he’s Bruce Chen, maybe he’s Jason Schmidt, I’d bet the former before the latter.

I’m not saying I think he’s been great or even that he should be given another shot in Atlanta. I think his AAA numbers prove he’s a talented pitcher, but the situation in Atlanta just isn’t right for him. I think one of the big problems is that he hasn’t been allowed to grow any by working through adversity and it seems like he probably won’t get that opportunity here, so it’s probably worth just moving him on to another team.

Just curious...

how has the “adversity” he’s faced been different than say Manny Acosta? Both have great AAA stats. Both have had their moments in Atlanta although much more bad outings than good. Just wondering how you seem so harsh on Acosta but appear to be giving Reyes a pass for what to me is similar inconsistent (if not subpar) results.

I guess cause I think Acosta has had plenty of chances to work through some hard times. He’s been brought in and allowed to create his own mess and try to work out of it a number of times, while JoJo is allowed to create his own mess but not to try to work out of it. I also think JoJo has good stuff and control and Acosta has a Boyer-esque flat fastball with no real secondary pitches.

And outside of a couple peripherals...

he’s gotten shelled frequently and lost a lot more than he’s won. There’s a reason he was sent down quick last year.

Def medlen...

There’s enough bullpen depth for him to be a starter… I think we shoul run another poll to ask how much money you woild pay to
send JoJo to the Albuquerque Isotopes

The ’Topes have one of my favorite ballpark foods, Bar-B-Que Nachos.

It’s a beautiful thing when two seperate awesome foods come together to form
something magical

There’s something so gratifying about eating that plate of eventual heart disease while watching the Great American Pastime. It feels so patriotic.

Don't forget Memphis.

The Redbirds had some magical BBQ nachos back when I was in law school. And come on, its the home of the best BBQ afterall!

I’ll agree that it’s good. But the home of the best BBQ? That would be a bit to the east in North Carolina…

You've obviously....

Never had Tom’s BBQ in Memphis. Owns anything else in town. The Redbirds have a great stadium downtown, too. I’ve made a vow to make it out to a bunch of games this season after making none last year. I just hate the fact that the stadium is downtown. Gonna make it out to see the MS Braves when they play West TN, too. Already planning a weekend slate of games in April.

why argue over the best

Lived in Memphis and Jackson for about 10 years. At the time, I really enjoyed a place called Crowe’s in Jack’s Creek. The Commissary in Germantown is good, and I can’t remember the name of the place but the menu item was called the Idaho Pig. My experience however tells me that there is no such thing as bad bbq. Nothing like meat cooked over an open fire or smoked.

there is such a thing as bad bbq….dont kid urself…ive seen it

In Buffalo the Anchor bar will deliver orders over 30 dollars in to the stadium
Yes it does

TradeAndruw has said it all. Allow Redmond to or someone else to be our long reliever and move Medlen into the 5th rotation spot. We still need JJ badly however.

Dont worry he will be fine

…I HOPE!!! God wouldnt do that to Bobby thought…

I don’t have a problem with bringing in Smoltz on a one year, low $ deal if its the worst for Jurrjens. The only problem with that is it could potentially lead to a Glavine 2009 situation where you could be looking at having to cut him loose if he’s not performing up to par. Surely Smoltz could handle being a 5th starter, and being skipped every once in a while. But if its a short term thing for JJ, plug Medlen in there.

Medlen no question

BTW….
Love the “Wednesday What If?” idea. Endless possibilities.

Who

voted for Todd Redmond

I didn’t, but why not? If the person thinks Medlen would be better suited to the bullpen (which I personally do, even if I also think he’s the next best starting option) then Redmond is a great choice for the 5th spot. He’s an innings eater and while he’ll probably never be anything close to a top of the rotation pitcher, he’d be perfect as a 5th starter.

I see i was just

asking because only one person voted for him.

Oh, I didn’t know we were just calling folks out.

well its kinda funny

you could put Matty D or some joke choice and probably gotten more then 1 vote.

Why do you prefer Medlen in the pen? His starting numbers in AAA were awesome. Certainly more so than one Jo-Jo Reyes.

He’s too small and has pretty average stuff. I just don’t see his body being able to ever last a season as a starter, but I think he could excel as a reliever. Basically I think it’s a choice between a backend starter and a very good reliever, and in that situation I’d probably take the very good reliever over the average to fair starter.

Thanks, that makes some sense. I just have zero faith in Reyes. Guess it will come down to spring training.

OT: What happened to Lance Cormier?

He played here in Norfolk the year after he was with the Braves, then he ended up with the Rays last season. He actually had a really good year with TB, best of his career. Lance is a good dude, he’s very down to earth and very funny. Before his wife and kids came out here for the summer he was riding the bus every day.

I disagree with his stuff being just average. His change up is a well above average pitch. His fastball is above average when he has his control and his curveball is developing. In fact, I think he has the potential to have great stuff.

It’s not about size. There have been starters his size before. His change is better than average.

Yeah, he’s about the same size as Lincecum and Pedro

Still, even with those 2 names, and the few other well known small pitchers, there are thousands more who couldn’t make it because of their size.

couldnt make it or weren’t allowed to make it bc of their size?

I think this might be a continually fulfilled prophecy the GMs assume the little guy can’t make it as a starter and as soon as there is the slighest thing that shows this the GM moves him to the pen

Could be. I guess little guys like Hudson and Lincecum will just have to keep pitching well and hopefully proving it wrong. Still, most teams are looking for big pitchers. Whenever I’m around a team it’s pretty obvious who the pitchers are, because they’re usually the only ones taller than me.

uhhh

it was prolly Redmond.

Can I vote Javier Vazquez?

No

Why not? I suggest we send a reserve outfielder who doesn’t hit much, a young pitching prospect, and a bullpen arm to fill things out.

Oh the pithiness. I love how people word things to fit their own pessimistic viewpoint.

or how some of just think it’s funny. How quickly a point of strength turns into a potential weakness.

You know what would be funnier, though

is if we didn’t trade Javy and just held on to all six starters instead. Then we could sit back and watch our team lose every game 3-2.

Like trading him has stopped that from happening? It’s not like we got some big time bat for him or signed on with the freed up money.

Troy Glaus? Erik Hinske?

Don’t you know, Glaus is already on the DL for the season in the minds of most? And nobody knows about Hinske, because his name isn’t Johnny Damon.

lol. I don’t understand the hostility to your post, I thought it was funny.

Thanks, sdj. It was meant in jest.

I think Medlen

I like JoJo a lot, but I think he’s going to be better off as a long relief or guy or a spot starter. I think JoJo could really be a good pitcher that only has to face a lineup one time. He normally starts games off good but then doesn’t fare so well the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineups. I think Medlen is the choice…he should be given the opportunity.

I personally don’t think it will matter though as nothing will be wrong with Jurrjens but a tired shoulder.

what happened

to that one mexican dude we had like 2 years ago that was like somewhat decent as a starter. i pick him

Jorge Campillo is the Mexican dude you are thinking of. He now pitches for the Royals.

Which former Braves

don’t pitch for the Royals?

The ones who are hitters.

What about

Tony Pena Jr

Touche. Although I actually think he’s moved on to a different team now.

Well he still pitched for them

so it still counts i WINZ

You definitely won. I thought I had the perfect comeback and you blasted me with TJ. I was very impressed.

What were you gonna say

What I already did, that the ones who aren’t pitching for them are hitters. But yes, TJ was both, so my joke just didn’t land.

Not so fast

The Royals actually converted Tony Pena to pitching after he threw a garbage inning for them one day. Looks like he’s with the Giants now.

Johnny Damon.

Dude can do everything.

If he can't start the season I bet.......

The Braves sign a veteran like Mulder or Lowery.

Mulder retired.

Not yet he hasn’t. But anyways he would be a worse more expensive option than Redmond, Ortegano, etc.

I don't think either Mulder or Lowery

Would require much money especially since both are coming off major injuries.

Mulder wouldn't be expensive...

if he signed a minor league deal.

yeah he hasn’t retired yet, but i dont agree with signing him anyway

Other options include Braden Looper and Paul Byrd.

Bowman mentions Jose Ortegano in his new blog as a rotation canidate if they want to keep Medlen in the pen.

Might want to add him to the poll.

Ortie

Looked pretty sick in winter ball.

Whoever does the best in spring training …

Sounds like a good answer to me......
WHAT THE HELL...

Where is Jason Heyward in that poll and all of this conversation? Heyward you got my vote 100%

LOL good point Kobe: The Legend.

At least I haven't heard the name James Andrews.

So it probably isn’t that bad. And I voted for Smoltz, btw.

I really wanted to vote for Smoltz, but I had to vote for Medlen.

Yeah

A little piece of me would love to see Smoltz back on the mound, but I had to vote for Medlen, too. I never wanna see Reyes on the mound for the Braves ever again.

So how long does it take to get a fucking MRI?

The only way someone like Smoltz (or any FA starter) would even enter in to the discussion would be if this was something serious that is going to cost JJ all, or most of the season. Which, hopefully this isn’t

I'm not gonna lie

It would be fun to see Smoltz and Cox go out together with a World Series ring.

But I voted for Medlen because that’s much more realistic.

re: What if Wednesday

I like it. I used to love the old Marvel “What if” comics.

Spiderman’s six arms!

Medlen

Then Valdez, who was straight up dealing this winter, gets a spot in the pen.

Yay

we got over 100 comments

Here's what I'd do.

Give Medlen the rotation spot and sign John Smoltz. Let John do the whole ‘wait 3 months’ thing if all five (including Medlen) starters stay healthy. But if one of them gets hurt, hit the “go” button and have John start (basically) his spring training. Use Reyes or Redmond or one of that bunch in the rotation for a month or so while Smoltz works up to 100 pitches in the minors. And, when Smoltz is ready, have him replace whatever AAAA pitcher you gave the rotation spot to for a month.

If there are six healthy starters, Medlen or Smoltz can move to the bullpen. If there are seven healthy starters, Medlen and Smoltz can move to the bullpen.

It would almost be too perfect from the PR perspective if we brought Smoltz back now, after the news about Glavine rejoining the organization last week. After all the talk, for things to be peachy again so fast would really be crazy.

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