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Talking Chop

Braves 2010 Season in Review: Chipper Jones

Chipper Jones is no longer the superstar he once was, but he proved that he can still be an impact player in 2010. Just as he had done for the last few years, Chipper battled nagging injuries throughout the first few months of the year and his stats reflected it; he posted a decent .783OPS in both April and May, but then fell of in June and July as he put up an OPS of .741 and .707 in those two months. Surprisingly enough, Jones' defense actually improved in 2010. After experiencing the one of his worst defensive years of his career in 2009, Chipper posted a decent UZR of 0.1 and UZR/150 of 0.2 this past season, which was average. 

August was a completely different story though. As a matter of fact, Chipper basically carried the team on his own for a few weeks. He posted a ridiculous OPS of 1.304 in the first ten days of August, and six of his twelve hits went for extra-bases. Unfortunately for the Braves, Chipper's stellar play would be cut short. While attempting an acrobatic jump-through from third base, Jones landed awkwardly on his right knee and immediately collapsed. With his parents in attendance in Houston, Chipper had to be helped off the field and wouldn't return. Hope was held for just a sprain or strain, but it would be concluded he had a torn ACL and would require immediate surgery. The Braves were without their leader, both on and off the field.*

Well, technically he was still "off the field", but I think you get the point.

Stat of the Year - Chipper Makes the Braves Better:

The Braves were 65-48 (.575%) before the injury. They went 26-23 (.530%) without him.

Stat of the Year #2 - Home Sweet Home:

At Turner Field, Chipper Jones posted an OPS of .954. On the road, it was just .649. That was one of the more drastic splits of any player in baseball.

2011 and Beyond:

As hard as it is to say, 2011 is (probably) Chipper's last year. Technically he's under contract past next season, but if we've learned anything from Chipper over the years, it's that he won't embarrass himself or the organization. Jones has struggled with injuries for the last five years, and it's getting to the point where his body can't handle it anymore. His production is only going to decline and I don't think anyone wants to see Brett Favre 2.0 in Atlanta. Let's send Larry Wayne out in style, shall we? A World Series championship should work just fine.

A bit of an editor's note after the jump.

Star-divide

Alright, so this is a bit of a confession on my part: I wrote this a few days ago, and after re-reading it, I felt like I've been completely and totally unfair to Chipper Jones. As a matter of fact, I'm almost ashamed of myself. For goodness sakes, he is Chipper Jones. He's been my favorite player since I started watching baseball. He's a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. He's been the face of the franchise since the late 1990's, and he will be until the day he retires. Jason Heyward will have his day; this is still Chipper Jones' team.

I did a little research and couldn't believe what I found. While his production has fallen off, he still managed to post a cumulative WAR of 13.2 from 2008-2010. Only five 3rd baseman in baseball have recorded a higher WAR in that time span. Five. Ryan Zimmerman, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, and Adrian Beltre. If you go by WAR, only five third baseman have been better than Chipper Jones since 2008. Four of those five guys are in their prime, and the other is one of the best players of all time. Yet, by some way or another, Chipper is still hanging around with them. 

Besides WAR, when you think of Chipper Jones, what is the one aspect of his game you think of? For me, it's his on-base percentage and phenomenal eye at the plate. Chipper, who is 47th on the all-time OBP list (.405), posted an OBP of .381 in 2010, which was good for 11th in the National League. And then you remember that he did it as a banged up 38-year old....that's insane.

Finally, is it me, or has Chipper been hitting a ridiculous amount of line drives right at guys? If you look at his BABIP from the past two years, it's .284, which is below the league average of .305 or so. What does this mean? When things balance out next season (as they almost always do), Jones will have an even better year. For a team that has the potential to be stacked on offense, it's easy to get really excited. With his great on-base percentage right in the middle of Prado, Heyward, Uggla, and McCann, it's safe to say the Braves will score their fair share of runs in 2011.

So there it is. Chipper Jones will be back next season for his seventeenth season, and we can only hope for a healthy and productive year. He may not be the superstar he once was, but he's still a very good player. And as we've all seen, it's never a safe bet to bet against the man known as Larry Wayne "Chipper" Jones. Let's prove 'em wrong, Chip.

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Comments

The “team leader” also took it on himself to continue to travel with the team and be a solid bench presence to the entire team. It could be argued that if he would not have gone down, the Braves would have clenched the division; but I am not sure they would have even made the playoffs without his presence in the dugout. The question following his playing career will be what position will Chipper find in the organization in a coaching or leadership role.

Lets not forget, that even though his batting average dipped in 09-10, he got walked a lot. That says to me that even though he may not be the superstar he once was, he is still very much respected by opposing pitchers. Chipper is a class act, and I look forward to ’11, this is gonna be a fun offensive year.

not to mention

that he didnt exactly have the same type of coverage as he did with Tex..

I thought he loved playing in New York...

isn’t one of his kids named Shea?

He loved playing in Shea Stadium

Which is now gone.

I think he loves playing in New York

but im guessing he hates the city.

Looking at the data...

…Chipper wasn’t hitting line drives at people last year, he just wasn’t hitting as many line drives. His line drive percentage in 2008 was 24.1% (hence the batting title), in 2009 it was 20.0%, and in 2010 it was 18.3%. His career percentage is 21.0%. He needs to get that back up over 20% and he’ll be fine. Otherwise, the diminished average will likely remain, as batting average is highly correllated with line drive percentage, especially for non-speed guys like Chipper.

I also think we can expect Chipper to play in 2012 barring another serious injury in 2011 or a total lack of performance.

Yeah if Chipper has a reasonably good year in 2011, I’d expect him to play the final year of his contract in 2012.

when we win the World Championship in 2011, I believe he hangs it up and goes out on top.

The Best

I have been a huge fan of Chipper’s since he began his career. He is a class act and has done many things to make the Braves a better ball club. for example: Moved to left field for Vinny Castilla, gave the Braves home town discounts which allowed the Braves the ability to put a team around him. 2011 will be a great year for Chipper especially with the improved power hitting behind him. If we win the Series Chipper will most likely retire. It will be a sad day for Braves fans when that day comes and Chipper deserves a fitting send off.

Love Chipper and love everything he has done

But I hope to see him voluntarily relinquish the 3 spot this year.

Bat him second, or 5th, or 6th. I vote for second, as his OBP would be great there. With Chippers and Heyward OBP in 2-3, Uggla could easily have 100 RBIs this season. Uggla is going to have runners on base nearly every time up.

To me it doesn’t really matter if he is 2 or 3 or who exactly hits cleanup. As long as we
Have OBP at the top and power through the middle we are fine. I think one of the lineups Fredi threw out there is good:

1. Prado R
2. Heyward L
3. Chipper S
4. McCann L
5. Uggla R
6. Freeman L
7. Gonzalez R
8. McLouth L

That puts everyone in the right areas and gives fantastic L-R balance.

that is a pretty nasty lineup… wow

I always figured Uggla would bat 4th, McCann 5th, but this switch really makes the 6,7,8 better and more balanced.

Cleanup or 5th

It doesn’t matter too much because both have OBPs a notch over .360 over the last three years and similar slugging around .490 over the same span. You can flip flop them four and five depending on handedness of the pitcher if you wanted too.

Admittedly

I was a fan of what Bobby did in 2006 and 2007 when Jeff Francoeur was still passable – Chipper third, Andruw/Teixeira fourth, and depending on the matchup, flip-flopping Francoeur and McCann in the 5th/6th spots. Against righties, it kept the balance of alternating sides, and with Teix created three straight LHBs, but against lefties, it gave a little bit of platoon weight by having three straight batters from the right.

That being said, I’d rather have Uggla permanently at cleanup and have McCann bat behind him, or alternate him with Gonzalez if he ever manages to get hot, against LHPs.

I can only think of 2 or 3 greater Braves then Chipper.

I hope he comes back in 2011 mashing and raking!

I never want Chipper to retire. Without him or Bobby it will be hard to recognize the Braves anymore. Of course when he moves on I’ll still love my Braves but it will be weird for sure.

As long as Chipper keeps getting on base like crazy and hitting for some power then he is going to remain very valuable as a player not to mention his leadership value.

They have this kid Heyward; he’s supposedly gonna be a decent player at some point in his career. Could be worth watching I suppose.

He may retire from baseball, but I seriously doubt he retires from the Braves.

I love Chipper.

That is all.

I wouldn't count on Chipper's BABIP returning to .300 levels.

He’s an old man now, and slower than he used to be. His bat speed has also likely degraded somewhat, leading to fewer sharply hit balls. I’d bet on it staying closer to .280 than .300, though given the fluctuations of that stat it could be anything.

Still, he doesn’t need to hit much better than .250 to be useful, given that his walk rate is still excellent and he still shows occasional power. I’m thinking a line of .260 / .370 / .410 or thereabouts, which would be just fine as long as his defense doesn’t collapse entirely.

Regardless, it’ll be good to see him in uniform again. The Braves obviously missed him in the last month, and especially in the playoffs.

I certainly wouldn't bet one way or the other

It may be unreasonable for a 38 year old to have a .300 BABIP, but it’s ridiculous unreasonable for a 36 year old to post a .383 BABIP. There is an element of luck involved with BABIP. For what it’s worth, using the simple xBABIP calculator, his expected BABIP from last year was .315 (based ont hings like LD%, fly balls, groundballs, etc.)

To be honest, I’d expect closer to .300 than .280 since I don’t think he’s completely falling apart yet, but I don’t believe either way strong enough to have an opinion about them. I could probably be persuaded in either direction.

FWIW, he did steal 5 bases last year without getting caught once.

Well, he HAS had quite a few games off the past few years, that extra rest has to count for something right?

I think Chipper's bat speed is still there...

When healthy that is…Just ask Joel Zumaya and that 100mph fastball that he mashed into the right-center bleachers for a 3 run HR in June. Hell, June and July were apparently two of his worst months this year. I hope that he works his butt off and comes back healthy, because when he is he can still rake.

Chipper can't reach

the 3,000 hit or 500 HR milestones by the end of 2012…either of which I’m sure don’t motivate Chipper anyway.

Out of curiosity, is there a pre-determined length of time that the organization waits before retiring a player’s number? I assume the placcard is already made and sitting somewhere in one of Ed Mangan’s sheds…

But he can reach other milestones

10 hits to reach 2,500
7 doubles to reach 500
9 RBI’s to reach 1,500
14 HR’s to reach 450
3 SB’s to reach 150

Like you say, he probably doesn’t care, but they will look good on his plaque.

Aside from the 14 homers...

…thats gonna be one heck of an opening day!

if he gets 10 hits on opening dya there’s no reason he wont have at least 10 HR

his 2500th hit will be his 500th double and his 1500th RBI

then he will steal the 3rd for his 150 SB

Good point on 3000 hits and 500 homers. He could play 3 years if he’s injury free and potentially reach 3000 hits but it would seem that 500 homers is not a realistic goal unless he can play 4 more years. I think he will play in 2012 if he is physically able to do so. I wouldn’t care to speculate after that though. So the Braves should have at least 2 years to find or develop someone to play 3B.

I’m not convinced he’ll be a first ballot Hall of Famer though. He SHOULD be, but the voters have always had a thing against third basemen (ask Ron Santo about that) and the failure to reach one of those magic numbers (3000 or 500) may cost him an extra year or two of waiting.

Chipper has something really positive in his favor…his numbers remained consistent pre- and post- Steroid testing.

As a switch-hitter, remember that Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray were both first ballot HOFers…and those are the only two that eclipse his 436+ HRs. Throw in a career .300+ and an MVP award in 1999.

Had the switch-hitter part wrote up...

And then noticed you already mentioned it. Nice work, chief.

Maybe it’s just me, but I think players that stick with the same team for their entire career have been a bit more successful in getting into the Hall in recent years…dunno if there’s any evidence to support that, but it’s just another item to consider, when the statistics are close.

-C

He is the only switch hitter with .300/.400/.500 line in baseball history

and 400+ HR with .300 batting avg.

When chipper retires I’ll cry.
When Junior retired, I almost cried. I almost cried when Bobby’s last game came. But I think I’ll be sobbing into a pillow when Chipper’s time comes.

I’ll be the odd one and say that I don’t love Chipper. He’s been a great HOF player for the Braves, but I don’t think he’s a very good person outside of baseball.

I either hope for one of two scenarios for him this next year:

1. Go ahead and retire.
2. Play, but have an outstanding year (like Wagner) then retire.

I’m afraid he’s going to have a poor year offensively by his standards.

Not to sour the mood, but...

there’s a strong possibility that Chipper isn’t physically ready to start at 3B right away. I know that Prado is the Plan B at 3B in that scenario. If Prado does start the year at 3B, then what do you think FW is going to do about our LF situation?

If Hinske resigns, do you think it’s going to be a Hinske/Mather platoon? Or some FA that we haven’t considered to this point?

Braves just resigned Hinske to a one-year deal...

hell yeah man good story on a future hall of famer.

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