There have been many reports lately that the Braves are nearing an extension with newly acquired second baseman Dan Uggla. The figures are just rumors now, but the rumors are that the extension would be for around $12M per year (or a bit more), which seems eminently fair for his production levels.
What is more worrisome is the number of years on the extension. The rumors put the extension at five years (though I don't know if that is replacing his 2011 arbitration year or not; that'd make a big difference). Obviously, since Uggla will be in his age-31 season next year, a five-year extension is risky.
To me, it seems like the most likely scenario is that Uggla is worth the money through age 33, then begins to decline, being overpaid but still useful for the next two to three years. That'd probably make the contract an overpay, but not a drastic one. Really, though, the range of possible scenarios is so huge, and most of the other scenarios are Uggly* for Braves fans.
* Sorry.
I'd love to have Uggla beyond this season, but the risk of a five-year contract is extremely large. If this were a three-year extension, I'd be excited, but five years is pretty scary. After the jump, I try to find out just how scary a five-year contract for a player like Uggla is.
As Capitol Avenue Club pointed out recently, many players like Uggla have dropped off dramatically as they entered their thirties. If you haven't read that article, you should, but I'll recap it quickly here. Basically, he finds a group of 15 comparable players, only two of which maintained their production. Six dropped off significantly, and the rest are still active, though many of those don't look promising.
While I agree with CAC's overall point that a five-year extension is too much (I'd stop at four, even if it meant a higher average annual value), I am not sure that some of his comparable players are all that comparable. For instance, one of the players in CAC's sample is Alfonso Soriano. But offensively, I don't consider Soriano and Uggla to be very much alike at all. To wit:
There are similar issues with many of CAC's comparables for Uggla. My biggest problem with his set of players is that many of them had lower walk rates. Only four walked at least 10% of the time (as mentioned above, Uggla's career rate is now at 10.8%, a figure he's topped in each of the last 3 seasons). Since I believe that a player's ability to draw walks is the single biggest factor in his being able to age relatively gracefully, I doubt that those players with low-to-medium walk rates can tell us much of anything about what Uggla is likely to do as he ages.
Let's use a different set of criteria to see if we can find some better comparables. Like CAC, I'm looking for players who accrued at least 2250 PAs during their age 26 to age 30 seasons while posting an OPS+ between 110 and 124 (Uggla is at 117, and 100 is average). I looked for all players who had a walk rate of at least 10%, a batting average below .280, and an isolated power (ISO) of at least .200 (Uggla's at .224).
I found 14 players besides Uggla. Of these, three are quite bad comparables because they were terrible at age 30, foreboding precipitous declines: Eric Chavez, Tony Clark, and Leon Durham. Uggla has obviously not entered his decline phase yet, so we'll just toss those guys out. Another, Nick Swisher, just finished his age-30 season, so he can't help us. That leaves 10 comparables.
I've broken these players into four groups. I listed each of them with their age 26-30 WAR and their age 31-35 WAR (I used Baseball-Reference's version since FanGraphs' only goes back to 2002). I also included their age when they had their last good season, which is especially relevant to this discussion. For reference, Uggla has been worth 14.9 WAR.
Rico Petrocelli
Age 26-30: 23.7 WAR
Age 31-35: 0.9 WAR
Last good season: Age 31
Jesse Barfield
Age 26-30: 22.9 WAR
Age 31-35: 0.3 WAR
Last good season: Age 31
Paul Sorrento
Age 26-30: 3.9 WAR
Age 31-35: 0.0 WAR
Last good season: 31
Andruw Jones
Age 26-30: 23.8 WAR
Age 31-33: 0.0 WAR
Was decent in 2010 (1.5 WAR); will be 34 in 2011
Troy Glaus
Age 26-30: 11.9 WAR
Age 31-33: 4.0 WAR
Last good season: Age 31
Was not very good in 2010 (0.6 WAR); will be 34 in 2011
Pat Burrell
Age 26-30: 9.2 WAR
Age 31-33: 3.6 WAR
Had his best year in ages in 2010 (3.0 WAR); will also be 34 in 2011
Reggie Sanders
Age 26-30: 16.4 WAR
Age 31-35: 12.7 WAR
Last good season: Age 37
Ron Gant
Age 26-30: 15.1 WAR
Age 31-35: 9.4 WAR
Last good season: Age 37
Jorge Posada
Age 26-30: 16.6 WAR
Age 31-35: 24.5 WAR
Last good season: Age 38 (and he isn't done yet)
Greg Vaughn
Age 26-30: 12.9 WAR
Age 31-35: 14.8 WAR
Last good season: Age 35
Overall, of the 10 players, at least 4 were still useful (or better) through their age-35 seasons. If Burrell continues his resurgence in San Francisco, that'll make 5 out of 10. Of the 5 confirmed/likely failures, one (Sorrento) was clearly never as good as Uggla, so it's questionable whether he is comparable. Still, there are 4 pretty clear negative comparables: Petrocelli and Barfield fell off the map pretty much immediately, and Jones and Glaus seem unlikely to regain their former glory.
While these comparables paint a somewhat rosier picture than the ones in the Capitol Avenue Club article, it's still not exactly encouraging that the failure rate for these guys was around 50%. Given that none of the 5 clear failures were good after their age-31 season, the potential for a dead-weight contract is very high. The wise move would seem to be waiting until Uggla has played at least a half-season here before extending him, just to make sure that there aren't any early warning signs.
Of course, none of this is the final word on the subject. We don't know what the Braves know. They have lots of scouts, paid number crunchers, and decades of player-evaluation experience. If you trust the Braves' front office, then you should still feel pretty good about having Uggla around for five more years. If you think they are a bunch of screw-ups, however, the Uggla extension will seem like a catastrophe waiting to happen.
0 recs | 173 comments
This is fine work.
If we want Uggla through the rest of his prime, we’re going to have to pay him for an extra year or two when he’s not in his prime. There’s really no debating this, and Uggla knows it as well.
Uggla will probably be worth more than $12M a year for the next three seasons, and he’ll be worth less than $12M after that. The question is, will he produce enough in the next three seasons to make keeping him around worth while?
I think he will be.
Scott Coleman - December 19, 2010
A big boost to Uggla’s value is the position that he plays. I am worried about when we need to move him off 2B and how that drop his WAR.
LEastCoastBears - December 19, 2010 via mobile
But do we need him?...
can we recoup draft picks, and replace him with Pastornicky or Jones in the field next year, and in the lineup by signing or trading for a LF with the money freed up by him moving on, Kawakami and McLouth coming off the books, Chipper possibly retiring, Lowe possibly getting dealt, etc.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
Really?
I don’t want to see Pastornicky OR Jones as a major league regular next year, if ever.
MichaelProcton - December 19, 2010
They’d be fine as a utility guy, but to pencil them in as a starter in favor of Dan Uggla? Absolutely not.
Scott Coleman - December 19, 2010 via mobile
You would have $12mil more to spend on a FA if Uggla isn’t resigned.
Broccoman - December 19, 2010
The FA class at 2nd, 3rd, SS and CF are all pretty weak next year, IIRC.
Scott Coleman - December 19, 2010 via mobile
You do remember correctly.
There’s a couple stop-gaps in Bartlett and Hardy at SS and one stud in Jose Reyes, health providing of course. The only 2B of note I can think of is Weeks, and the same caveat applies to him.
Jake Humphrey - December 20, 2010
I thought so...
Unless we decide that we’re going to kill our farm system, we won’t be able to bring in much talent via the FA Market, even if we have money to spend.
Keep Uggla. Wren will have enough on his plate as he attempts to replace a Hall of Famer at 3rd, shortstop, and center fielder.
Scott Coleman - December 20, 2010
There's also Rickie Weeks
Stephen Schmidt - December 21, 2010
Mr. Sanchez, you are right, but wrong.
You are right that we don’t need Uggla. I agree with you there completely. Where I disagree is replacing him with Pastornicky or Mycal Jones (I assume that is the Jones you were referring to). The problem with Uggla is that we pay a premium for his postion, second base, and he is bad defensively, and we don’t need a second baseman. Prado moves back to second in 2012 and we can replace Uggla with an outfielder, probably from outside of the organization, for whom we do not have to pay a premium because of position.
cavebird - December 19, 2010
That's what I'm saying though cave...
if either one of them is ready to fill the starting 2B job next year, say Chipper retires and Prado moves to 3rd, Schafer takes CF. You’re looking at:
McCann
Freeman
Jones/Pastornicky
Prado
Acquisition
Heyward
Schafer
Acquisition
If you can get the big bat at SS with Reyes, that’d be great. But if you lose Chipper’s $13m, Uggla’s $10-12, McLouth’s 6.65, and whatever we eat of Kawakami’s 6.67, that leaves a lot of money with a pitching staff near complete to fill just SS and LF. You can replace Uggla in the field with Jones/Pastornicky, and improve there, then target a LF to keep the lineup going. If you can dump Lowe’s salary with only one year left, or flip him for that SS or LF, that just increases your options.
If we keep Uggla, so be it, but with Pastornicky and Jones already in AA, if either one is ready to take 2B next year, we can use the money elsewhere to replace the bat (LF, SS or both) and use the picks to continue reloading for the future.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
Chipper is not going to retire...
…in all likelihood. And even if he does, we can look for thirdbasemen, not just second basemen. Prado’s maximum utility is at second base, so we should play him there if we can and it makes sense. I think we can do better than Pastornicky/Jones as replacements for Uggla if we let him go.
cavebird - December 19, 2010
Of course we don’t need him…I mean our organization is littered with RH power bats….
dunnytwogloves - December 19, 2010
Free agents after 2011...
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
Doesn’t look very promising.
dunnytwogloves - December 19, 2010
Clear Chipper, Lowe, Uggla, among other salaries,...
and you’ve got money for Pujols. Stick him in LF, RH power problem solved.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
True…
dunnytwogloves - December 19, 2010
lolz
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
NO NO NO NO
You can’t sign Pujols to a contract because good, consistent players will turn to dust after they are 30.
tcstew - December 19, 2010
Are you comparing Pujols to Uggla?
Thats a poor way of saying you dont agree with this post.
Doghnut - December 20, 2010
I know you're being sarcastic
but there’s a chance that even almighty Pujols drops off in his 30s. Actually, there’s a very good chance that his production declines somewhat… it’s just that his production is so awesome right now that even with a decline he’ll still be fantastic. I think we might be seeing the same thing with A-Rod right now. Look at his WARs from the past 4 seasons (ages 31-34): 9.9, 5.4, 3.9, 2.9. See the trend?
There’s also a smaller chance that Pujols falls off the face of the Earth. There have been many MVP-caliber players whose careers have ended fairly abruptly (none as good as Pujols, though).
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2010
Pujols has been amazing with his consistency though...
through injuries, whatever, every year he’s there posting .300+/.400+/.500+ if not much higher than those numbers, in at least 140 games. No down year, no injury plagued year, no rookie acclimation period, every damn year for 10 years now, since he first stepped to the plate, Pujols’ consistent excellence has almost unprecedented.
Mr. Sanchez - December 20, 2010
this
He is The Machine
Braves24 - December 20, 2010
why didnt you eliminate them, Albert?
CoxXx - December 20, 2010
While I am not worried about an extension, I was being very sarcastic. But I do think its funny, Uggla has been equally as consistent as Pujols (albeit at a lower skill level), but no one would consider not extending Pujols for 5 years.
tcstew - December 20, 2010
Lower skill level...
Means you’ve got less decline to go before you’re useless. So the fact that a 5-year Pujols extension is a no-brainer does not mean that a 5-year Uggla extension is a no-brainer. Far from it.
SS451 - December 24, 2010
elbow issues
Pujols would likely then require to get his shaky elbow fixed at some point if we put in LF, removing his RH power from our line-up.
MikeDO82 - December 27, 2010
well said mvhs
My thoughts exactly
JonnyBravesFan - December 19, 2010 via mobile
I agree with you on this one.
Unfortunately, baseball doesn’t work in a perfect world.
If Uggla is predestined to decline at 33 or 34, why wouldn’t he sign a long-term contract. Surely he’s aware of the percentages and trends, too.
Thus, we have to give a little to get, hopefully, a lot. We’ll see.
I like the move, but I am sure others don’t, but when I see the $$$$ thrown around to guys like Carlos Lee and Werth, I don’t think $12MM/yr is that much…
Jman781 - December 20, 2010
I have no problem with signing Uggla to a 5 year deal, if somehow, magically his below average defense improved to above average, while his above average offense started declining. If we could get 3 good years out of him offensively, his trade value will remain high enough, we could ship him to the Nats or Royals by then.
HeyMikey - December 20, 2010
Second Base
First off, really nice work.
Secondly, I think it all depends if he plays second base for the duration of the contract or eventually moves to the outfield.
Buffalo Braves - December 19, 2010
Uggla would likely be a terrible outfielder
Besides the fact that the reads would be new to him, he’d have basically no range now (much less in 3 years)
Stephen Schmidt - December 19, 2010
He probably shouldn't be a 2B now.
So this is just a question of how long the Braves are willing to tolerate bad defense for the sake of Uggla’s ego.
SS451 - December 24, 2010
OT: Lorenzo Cain is now in KC
Maybe we can get him now?
LEastCoastBears - December 19, 2010 via mobile
Man, I can't believe they took that deal.
I wish Moore had called up Wren. We could’ve given him, say, Beachy, Schafer, a relief prospect and another decent SP prospect (say, Hoover). To me, that’d be comparable to the puupuu platter they got from Milwaukee.
In other news, the Royals are going to be really, really, really bad next year (unless all their prospects come up and hit like Heyward).
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
I’d rather save those chips for a situation of bigger need then starting pitching, where after this year we’re probably set for 3-4 years.
Broccoman - December 19, 2010
The package they got from the Brewers is way better than that, especially when you consider their system and what they’re trying to build for.
Lennox - December 20, 2010
I disagree about that
I don’t like any of the four players they got in the deal much at all. Probably the biggest positive in the deal for KC is they got rid of Yuniesky Betancourt.
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2010
I like Cain a lot. He’s going to be a solid ML CFer who could end up being a Mike Cameron type player. Value wise he’s way about Schafer right now (since, you know, he hasn’t missed the better part of the last 3 seasons).
Escobar is reputed to be a great defender at SS. He has good speed as well, if he can ever figure out how to get on base he’ll be really valuable. At worst he’s going to be valuable for his glove though. They get a major upgade at SS just by getting rid of Betancourt.
Odorozzi is projected as a #2 type starter. He’s comparable to Delgado from our system, way more value than Beach as a prospect.
Jeffers, if he is the PTBNL, could end up being a good late inning guy/closer. Unless the relief prospect you’re giving up is Kimbrel or Venters, they’re not getting more value.
Also, their system was already stacked with pitching, guys who project to be mid-late rotation starters have limited value for the Royals.
Their main needs were at SS and CF, and that’s what they got, they’re trying to fill out the holes in their system so they’ll have a window 2013-2015 to compete.
Lennox - December 20, 2010
I was thinking more like Beachy, Schafer, Delgado, and Pastornicky, which I do think is way better than what they got and wouldn’t strip our farm system dry.
Bronn - December 20, 2010
eh I wouldnt do that one. Big Schafer fan
drumzalicious - December 20, 2010
Schaefer has almost zero value right now. Might as well hold onto him, hope his wrist is 100%, and take the gamble.
Broccoman - December 20, 2010
Exactly my thoughts. He could be quite a dynamic player and I would hate to give him up for nothing.
drumzalicious - December 20, 2010 via mobile
Didn’t KC need an SS back? I heard they were pretty fixed on an SS/CF/2P package.
Yakker - December 20, 2010
Probably because they have 1B/3B/C/corner OF and pitching
loaded in the system. They’ve got those pieces and just need the players up the middle. Not a bad idea, especially if Escobar and Cain become solid everyday players. Then you can match Myers, Moustakas, Butler, Gordon, Hosmer, etc around them.
Mr. Sanchez - December 20, 2010
Right
And without a 2B/SS to give them, we probably weren’t a good fit.
Yakker - December 20, 2010
Fantastic post
This.
Braves24 - December 19, 2010
This again.
I’ve been screaming this since the day we acquired him: under no circumstances is it wise for us to give him a five year deal. No effing way.
J-Freak - December 19, 2010 via mobile
Four years $48 mil, with 5th year being player option for 6 or club option for 12, wouldn’t be so bad.
Broccoman - December 19, 2010
WE STILL NEED POWER
after looking at the top prospects list, there doesnt seem to be any 30+ hr guys in our future. As nice as it is to have tons a great pitchers, they can only play one position and they doesnt include hitting HR’s. So, can I expect that some of our pitchers will be traded for some position players? Have we become pitcher heavy much like the Rangers are hitter heavy? It seems that way.
Professor1 - December 19, 2010
4-5 guaranteed years I think would be a mistake. I wouldn’t mind 3 years and a 4th year option though. But, he probably won’t sign a deal like that. So yeah we will probably be regretting the deal in the latter years.
Windu - December 19, 2010
I’d consider a higher AAV and fewer years. Uggla might go for that. $54M/4 including 2011, with a reachable but non-gimme vesting option for 2015.
Yakker - December 20, 2010
Five year deal.
That means we’d avoid arb with him this year and buy out four free agent years of his. I think he slightly outproduces the contract in the front half and slightly underproduces it in the back half, giving us good value over the life of the contract. I think the risk is worth it for Uggla’s power and the stability it brings to the infield (I for one think Uggla ends up moving to 3B instead of LF). So far Uggla has been very healthy and is a supposed workout fanatic, so I’m less concerned over his body breaking down as I would be some players.
Jake Humphrey - December 19, 2010
I agree that I think he moves to 3B instead of the OF.
And I hope you’re right about how it turns out.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
The numbers shown below are certainly intriguing.
And I’ve seen that he goes better to his left than his right and has a pretty strong arm. Seems to me that he’d make a decent 3B if all those things are true.
Jake Humphrey - December 20, 2010
I have no problem giving him 5 years if that’s what it takes to keep him in Atlanta. If he was on the FA market this he’s the 3rd best hitter and probably gets 5 years and $15M per season. He’s not going to hit for a great average but he walks and hits a lot of HR’s, and this team has no one on the roster who is going to hit 30 HR’s next year. McCann is a low 20’s guy and Heyward’s swing may never hit 30 HR’s, which I’m fine with because it sets up a lot of doubles.
In 5 season’s in the majors he averages 32 HR’s and a .263/.349/.488 line. He hasn’t had a monster season or terrible season. The guy is very consistent.
jack dein - December 19, 2010
Haha.Ok
Braves24 - December 19, 2010
He has a line drive swing. He’s going to hit a lot of doubles and the power will come but he’s going to be an upper 20’s guy.
jack dein - December 19, 2010
He's 21, hit 18 his first year....
….despite being useless for about a month and a half. He hit a 475ft shot on his first big-league swing. As he develops, the power will come. He’s too strong and takes command of the strike zone too well for it not to….
Undocorkscrew - December 19, 2010
Oh, and he hit 18 HR despite his 93 walks.....
…..I say he’s an annual candidate for at least 30+ here shortly.
Undocorkscrew - December 19, 2010
Damn I love that this debate is taking place. I don’t give a damn where he hits em’ as long as he smokes line drives like he did as a rookie and draws walks. I think he will be mid 20s to mid 30s most years
jeg - December 19, 2010
He was on pace to hit 30 before he injured his thumb
Braves24 - December 19, 2010
He was on pace to hit 45 until mid-may.
ATLandUNC - December 19, 2010
He didn’t get injured until June
Braves24 - December 19, 2010
He slowed his homer pace before that
ATLandUNC - December 19, 2010
not really
He hit six HRs in April and four HRs in May
Braves24 - December 19, 2010
he was on pace for 162 homers after game 1
liv4sport100 - December 19, 2010
And 648 RBIs
If he could just keep up that pace next year….we’d win the WS for sure!
Bronn - December 19, 2010
Nobody can match the pace of...
Tuffy Rhodes!
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
I agree
He hit a groundball on 55.1% of his batted balls…only 6 other guys hit a higher %. So yeah, he’s definitely going to need to develop some upper cut on the swing.
dunnytwogloves - December 19, 2010
It’s not like the Braves are offering him some kind of ridiculous Ryan Howard contract. For $12 million/year for the next 5 years, re-signing Uggla seems perfectly reasonable to me. Having Prado, Heyward, McCann, Uggla, and Freeman in the line up for the next few years in addition to all the young pitching means the Braves will contend every year barring major injuries.
redwards95 - December 19, 2010
You are right that this is clearly better than Howard's extension.
Howard is only a bit better than Uggla, and he’s going to be paid twice as much. That’s crazy.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
Jesus christ almighty.....
Anyone seen Bill James projections for Domonic Brown in 2010?
.288 AVG
.346 OBP
.505 SLG
26 HR
84 RBI
28 SB
Had that occurred in 2010, he wins the ROY in a land-slide. I like Brown, but projecting him to be that close to a 30/30 guy in his first full year is just confusing.
Undocorkscrew - December 19, 2010
Seriously. Those are MVP numbers. That’s not happening.
Scott Coleman - December 19, 2010 via mobile
Bill James's projections are always optomistic.
They are fun to read, but are the best-case scenario.
cavebird - December 19, 2010
Is that even "best case scenario"...
how many rookies have threatened 30/30? Or put up a 25/25, with a .290/.350/.500 slash line?
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
Compare that to his 2010 Heyward projection.
I don’t have the numbers easily available, but it was well below that except for OBP.
If Dom Brown slugs .500, I’ll eat my hat. (It’s a cheese hat, but still… that’s a lot of cheese.)
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
A sobering assessment.
I agree with the post, and I think there is another danger. Only two players were unqualified successes, and one of them is Greg Vaughn. And while nothing is proven, given what he did and when he did it, I think Vaughn may have had some help maintaining and improving during those years.
cavebird - December 19, 2010
I think his cousin Mo was mentioned in the Mitchell Report
Doghnut - December 19, 2010
I’d a lot rather have Uggla for 5 years / $60M thru his age 35 season than Werth for 7 years / $126M thru his age 39 season. Uggla’s UZR away from Miami is above league average, so is his UZR150, ErrR and RngR, all 4 are way below league average in Miami. ( Hat tip to a fellow TC member for that info)
I see it as a win-win situation. If we don’t extend him, we get picks, if we do extend him we get another leader for a team that thrives on leadership.
bighop - December 19, 2010
My reason for using Werth as the comparison…..
162 game averages
Uggla .263 / .349 / .488 / .837 / 32HR / 97 RBI / 76 BB / 159 K
Werth .272 / .367 / .481 / .848 / 25 HR / 85 RBI / 75 BB / 152 K
bighop - December 19, 2010
Very good points.
Even with me being leery about 5 years, that’s obviously a lot better than 7 years. I think Werth might be worth a bit more overall, but not nearly that much more.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
It doesn't make him worth nearly what he's getting,
but I do like Werth’s overall game. Speed, power, and defense. I would have loved to have seen him in Atlanta, but not for anything close to what he got.
Jake Humphrey - December 20, 2010
well the difference is that Werth is a pretty solid defender of his position right now and Uggla isn’t although these posts about Home/Away defensive splits are intriguing
drumzalicious - December 20, 2010
We finally get a power hitter
And the guy gets broken down from every angle before he plays ONE game for the Braves. 5 years is perfectly fine with me. His bat isn’t going to decline as fast as his glove so i’ll take that and when it does just flip him and Prado around.
Jay212033 - December 19, 2010
I'm not breaking him down at all.
I love Dan Uggla (from an offensive standpoint). If he hits like he has in the past, he will be an amazing addition.
This is merely about the risks of a 5-year deal for a player in his 30s. I actually think Uggla has a pretty decent chance to hold up well, thanks to the walk rate, but it is definitely a risk. That’s not a knock on Dan, only on 30-something players in general.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
And he apparently gets a 5-year extension before he plays ONE game for the Braves.
The extension is stupider than the breaking down, and the latter follows from the former.
SS451 - December 24, 2010
I don't see what all the fuss is about
Its not like his power is just gonna disappear. Even in a worst case scenario by his 5th year he will be hitting 20+ homers, which is always useful.
By 2015, paying $12 million for a guy hitting 22-26 homers may not be that ridiculous. (inflation of contracts, etc)
He has hit 30 homers for 4 straight years. His decline looks to be a long way away.
ATLandUNC - December 19, 2010
It's not the power I'd be worried about.
For most of the guys above, it was the contact that got them in trouble. Take Andruw, for instance… he stopped being able to hit anything but mediocre fastballs. He can still hit them a long way, but he’s just not the same player. I don’t think Uggla’s power will degrade much at all, but I do worry about what position he’ll play and if his strikeouts get out of control, causing his AVG to dip into the .240 range.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
i disagree with all the worries
Dan came up late in his career…not saying he was playing in the minors, but he is only five years in the league….you could give the same argument for Ryan Howard or Jason worth….both late bloomers…the production for his position has been great over the past five years and i believe he can keep it respectable for 5 more
jake41 - December 19, 2010
I think the consensus is that both Ryan Howard and Jason Werth are overpaid and it will eventually cripple their teams’ payroll sooner than later.
LEastCoastBears - December 19, 2010
From what I've seen out of him
He’s an Error waiting to happen.
h2o_34_35_44 - December 19, 2010
Im starting to feel better about Uggla
If the fielding stats are true about him being much much better away from Florida. At first glance, I wasnt a huge fan of this extension. But I think the first three years will be ok. Eating two bad years if necessary isnt the worst thing.
Doghnut - December 19, 2010
776 game sample size
home UZR -26
away UZR +3.4
home UZR150 -10.5
away UZR150 +1.4
home ErrR -7.6
away ErrR 0.0
home RngR -17.7
away RngR +1.1
The difference is pretty amazing in my eyes.
bighop - December 19, 2010
Let's hope...
it was just a piss poor field crew in Florida. You’d think being surrounded by all those Hispanics the Marlins could at least do that well.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
I think weather might be part of it. They have tons of rain delays, might lead to skidding grounders, weird bounces, inconsistancies etc.
bighop - December 19, 2010
wtf?
fandave - December 19, 2010
I take it you missed the sarcasm at the end...
but back on point. Scroll to the end and see Uggla’s drastic splits fielding home and away.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2B&season=0
Now scroll to the end again, and see similar splits home and away for his long time partner on the middle IF, Hanley Ramirez.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS&season=0
Is it the weather, just a poorly maintained IF, the turf being torn up when they start playing football there too, a bad stat keeper in Florida, just a statistical anamoly? I’m not sure the reason, but it certainly appears fielding improves away from Florida for both. Strange, and let’s hope it holds for Uggla now that he’s a Brave that he’s an average glove away from Miami.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
That was good thinking
Seeing Hanley with moderately similar splits makes Uggla in Atlanta look like a decent chance of not being a butcher at 2B.
bighop - December 19, 2010
As I thought about it, that's where my mind went...
if it’s unique to Uggla, it could be any number of reasons. But if there is something wrong with the infield in that stadium, you’d likely see it with more than just him. So check his IF counterparts, and you see if with Ramirez, some with Cantu at 3rd for them, with Bonifacio at 3rd. It’s starting to seem like there really may be something to this bad infield D with Sun Life (or whatever they call it) Stadium being the primary cause.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
excellent analysis and yes I had a sarcasm detection fail.
fandave - December 19, 2010
I guess we need to look at his defensive stats here?
Also, my two cents on what you said earlier..we may not need him but we could sure use him!..and since you called out the defense problems based on field shape maybe since his numbers for offense were up here as well how would that project to a whole season playing here? All hypothetical of course but would we really see a huge decrease if we gave him 3 years with an 4 option?….
Fish offered him 4 for 48 mil…right? 3 at 13 with a 15 4th.
A risk with motivation?
bravestatoo - December 19, 2010
What gets me now isn't just Uggla h/r splits defensively,...
but Hanley Ramirez as well. Both players have 5+ years in the league, and a lot of time in the Marlins middle infield. For one to have such drastic difference in fielding home and away is suspect, and could just be an anamoly in an already suspect stat. But for both to have similar, stark improvements away from home? Something seems strange, and we just may be getting a much better defensive 2B than the general TC public was expecting we got.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
I hear the choir...amen
bravestatoo - December 19, 2010
Here’s hoping
award6 - December 20, 2010
That's an amazing statistic.
Good work!
Scott Coleman - December 20, 2010 via mobile
Interesting
Do other Marlins show a similar split? Or MLBers in general?
Yakker - December 20, 2010
Uggla 2B, Hanley SS and Cantu 3B are all tremendously better on the road than at home in those 4 metrics. Only Uggla becomes better than league average.
Cantu @3B
UZR -30.6/-0.8
UZR150 -31.1/-0.9
ErrR -12.9/-2.2
RngR -18.2/+1.6
Hanley R @ SS
UZR -32.3/-7.0
UZR150 -15.3/-3.0
ErrR -8.3/-6.0
RngR -22.6/-1.6
That Miami infield must be awful.
bighop - December 20, 2010
Interesting
Wasn’t the reverse the case with Renteria? He excelled at defense in Fla, went to Fenway and turned into a butcher, and we were able to get him back to above-average. It’s been awhile, but IIRC…
Yakker - December 20, 2010
you are correct, but I have always heard (and unfortunately never actually looked at the numbers) that Boston’s IF was very poor.
Swo12bv - December 24, 2010
I agree.
These home/road split numbers are very promising. If he can even be close to league average (like Prado was), that would be excellent.
cavebird - December 19, 2010
BTW
The Freddie Freeman fanpost is an SBN Editors pick but this isnt? Come on SBN…
Doghnut - December 19, 2010
Well, this isn't a fanpost...
Don’t know how it works, but that might be why.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
haha
it looks like if any post gets to 100+ comments it becomes the “editor’s pick”
alligatorimpersonator - December 19, 2010
Jeff Kent, Joe Gordon are the correct comparables
per baseball-reference.com, in terms of hitting, for Uggla.
Kent hit like Uggla once he got out of Shea. Gordon had war years in his 20’s. Maybe that’s why they didn’t turn up in your comparables, but they are certainly most like Uggla as slugging second basemen.
Both were spectacular aged 31-35, and Kent beyond. Now if Uggla could only step up his fielding a bit above Kent’s level …
JimK - December 19, 2010
Kent, like some of the others compared...
might not have maintained his numbers naturally though. As sad as it may be to say, his numbers almost have to be considered suspect just on playing in the Bay Area at that time and the abnormal power for the position.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
Kent's walk rate wasn't high enough to qualify, actually.
He didn’t walk much until he got to hit in the same lineup with Barry Bonds. I think a large amount of his good numbers in SF are due to Bonds being there (not necessarily steroids). Which is funny b/c of their animosity toward each other, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Kent’s BB rate before SF was 6% and his BB rate in SF was 9.3% (which still isn’t that great).
I do think he’s a decent comparable overall, but Uggla has actually been pretty clearly better in his age 26-30 years.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
I believe the Braves will have an excess of lefty bats in McCann, Heyward, Freeman and Schafer for years to come and have seriously need to keep Uggla’s big bat in the middle of the lineup. $12 M per year is fair to the team and even with the risk a production decline, it is a deal that needs to be done.
fandave - December 19, 2010
People of here kill me sometimes.
Mostly everyone wanted D. Uggla, mostly everyone wants to extend him but is know worried about a five year extentsion. I for one am not, Uggla is one of the most consistent performers in the MLB today; he wants the fifth year give it to him and at $12.5 million per year it is a true bargain just take one look at the free agent market to determine that fact I mean look at the Werth, Crawford, deals as a dividing line.
I like the deal plus by the time he starts to decline he will be what 36 ? D. Lowe will be gone after this season if he produces at the level we think, as well Mclouth, C. Jones, KK freeing up a ton of cash.
Extend Uggla he is the best RH power hitter we have had since the Crime Dog.
Plus Heyward will have his arb years bought out, McCann will be in his and have a new deal / peaking, and Freeman should be doing great things and Prado will still be around with a new contract as well.
Great deal do it- nobody ever complained about C. Jones washed up behind out their being overpaided but you want to bash the Uggla deal this just sickens me.
Holty_Panthers_Fan - December 19, 2010
You shouldn't be sickened. It is risk/reward ratio thinking.
We have two choices: either extend him or get one year at $10-11 million plus two draft picks when he leaves. We are making a slight under pay plus two draft picks if we don’t extend him. If we extend him at 5 years/ $60 million or so, we probably are making a slight overpay. Maybe not a slight overpay if his defensive problems were really caused by the crappy infield in Florida. It probably isn’t a big deal either way, to be honest.
cavebird - December 19, 2010
And we probably don't get the picks...
6 years from now, assuming it’d be unwise to offer him arb if he’s begun to decline.
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
Yeah. We don't get the picks then.
He won’t have a choice but to accept then, and let’s face it, the CBA will be different by then; there might not be any picks to get.
cavebird - December 19, 2010
Strongly disagree...
We at least get one of the picks…take a look at this year’s Elias rankings. There’s a ton of people as old or older than 2015 Uggla on this year’s A and B lists. Some deservingly, some not. The stats used to determine this are heavily in favor of veterans on successful teams.
Here’s the criteria…
If Uggla moves away from second in a few years, this will actually help him maintain his Elias ranking, as defense won’t figure in. RBI opportunities should be plentiful in our lineup with the elevated OBP, creating more high leverage situations in his favor. That should help all these considerations. I don’t think there’s a chance in the world that Uggla doesn’t get at least a B rating.
Offering arbitration can be risky, but a B rating in his walk-year five years from now would definitely swing the scale in the favor of extending him. There’s at least a moderate chance that Uggla’s signing elsewhere after this season would result in only a sandwich and 2nd round pick, if he signs with a team like the Nats or the Mets, who could easily have a protected first-round pick.
Let’s go ahead and focus on that last bit, another reason to extend Uggla – our opponents can’t sign him if he’s on our team. Mets have Castillo coming off the books next season, and Espinosa has been listed in any and every Nats trade rumor lately. You don’t think they’ll be competing for his services after 2011?? Don’t think they’d be willing to give up a 2nd-rounder for him after they finish in the bottom 15 this year?? Don’t think they have the money to spend??
The bottom line is that extending Uggla, while a little risky, is a better move than to risk losing him to a team that can beat us regularly in a couple years when their bad contractual obligations have reached an end or their prospects have matured into a force to be reckoned with.
-C
cthabeerman - December 21, 2010
Some good points...
but neither one of us know how he’ll age for Elias ratings so far down the line. Or exactly when his decline would begin which might make offering arb a very risky chance.
But the common assumption around here seems to be that he’ll start falling off at the end of the deal, and if so, he’d likely be overpaid in arb and unable to get such a deal on the open market. That is IF the common assumption that he’ll start falling off 4 and 5 years from now holds.
Mr. Sanchez - December 21, 2010
I don't think we get a pick at all in 5 years.
For starters, assuming a decline in production, he’d probably accept arbitration. I also think the whole compensation pick system will be scrapped in the next CBA, which should be before then.
cavebird - December 21, 2010
The CBA...
Runs through Dec. 11, 2011, so we may not get any picks if they change it on the next agreement anyway. Since the draft entailing those picks occurs after the new bargaining agreement, they’ll likely either tweak the system and make the changes prior to the draft, or scrap it altogether, giving us nothing for Uggla.
You folks must expect Uggla to fall off a cliff in both of the last two seasons…I mean, Scott Podsednik was a Type B free agent this year. Vazquez flopped mightily in New York and was still a Type B, thanks to a good previous year…and the list goes on. There’s plenty of middling players that had Type B status. Even if Uggla declines AND stays at second base, he’s going up against second basemen, shortstops, and third basemen (the only group of the three that have above league-average production).
In order for Uggla to not get a B designation, he’d have to have two horrible seasons (Elias uses the last two seasons to rank the players), not just one.
That’s not to say the team couldn’t decline to offer him arbitration…but that’s the team’s decision to make five years down the road. Let’s not project a conclusion that far ahead when Uggla’s yet to step onto the field in a Braves uniform.
-C
cthabeerman - December 21, 2010
You're right that it's a close decision.
As I said above, I’m pro-extension, I just wish we could keep it to 3-4 years. I’d rather be on the right side of the risk/reward axis if we can manage it. Some risks turn out just fine, but you’d like to see us minimize them within reason.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
From what I read...
it looked like the 5 years included buying out this current arbitration year, so that’s good news.
alligatorimpersonator - December 19, 2010
That is indeed good news, if accurate.
Otherwise, it’d actually be a 6-year deal, which is obviously a bit scarier.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
Um, McGriff hit left handed?
Mr. Sanchez - December 19, 2010
Also...
How did he miss Andruw? Dude hit 50 one year, which is way more than McGriff ever hit. Plus, Andruw is actually right-handed.
Jacob Peterson - December 19, 2010
As for Andruw
Andruw could have been one of the best ever but was to lazy and relied to much on pure ability during his prime and didn’t work hard enough. If he had Pete Rose or better yet W. Mays heart he would have been a hall of fame CF and the best of all time.
Now he is just a footnote on what could have been; which is truly a shame.
Holty_Panthers_Fan - December 20, 2010
Thank God he doesn't have Pete Rose heart
The world already has more than enough of that kind of person.
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2010
Javy Lopez hit like 46 or something
he was/is RH
coachrob - December 20, 2010
and Big Cat
granman29 - December 20, 2010 via mobile
and Big Cat
granman29 - December 20, 2010 via mobile
Silly details
JonnyBravesFan - December 21, 2010
Dang
Another stupid typo, meant to just say Power Hitter, anyways good catch Mr. Sanchez I will own up to you are correct sir, thanks for catching that.
Holty_Panthers_Fan - December 20, 2010
Umm…. unless there was another guy nicknamed Crime Dog, Fred McGriff was a lefty.
BW Smith - December 20, 2010
One other factor- Liberty won’t be the owner in 3-4 years I believe, it’s likely the next owner will raise the budget- so that $12mil could be absorbed by that. If not, well it’s going to be the 80s all over again no matter what eventually.
Broccoman - December 19, 2010
Hard to predict that sort of thing.
As I’ve said in another post, there’s no way to know if a new owner will be better for the team, or even if they will raise the payroll. Be careful what you wish for.
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2010
I agree with the OP
that 5 years would be too long for an extension. Unfortunately we don’t know how Schafer will perform or someone like Matt Young. If this season Chipper ends up missing extended time and Young and Schafer end up our regular LF and CF and both are doing a good job (.800 OPS) then I think the Braves could get by not extending Uggla. Granted we would have a VERY LH heavy lineup it could work.
Some possible options next year that are FA:
Josh Willingham
Cody Ross
Michael Cuddyer
Jonny Gomes
INF:
Jack Wilson
J.J. Hardy
Jose Reyes
Rickie Weeks
Jose Bautista could be an option at 3B/LF as well but that’s if he has really figured out how to hit.
So there are options there if the Braves don’t bring back Uggla. None of them are really as powerful hitters as Uggla has been but they all could be cheaper and on a shorter contract.
drumzalicious - December 20, 2010
I think we all have to assume that Uggla will likely have a good season this year.
If he does, what do you think he will be able to get as a FA on the market next season?
If it’s close to or better than 4 years at around $12 MM per, then I think you have to go ahead and do the 5 year extension now (provided that he indicates a willingness to change positions in the future).
If you think that 4/$12 MM per is roughly the ceiling to what he’d get as a FA after this season then it’s better to just wait and see how he does this year, then offer him Arb and get the draft picks as a consolation prize if we can’t sign him.
Lennox - December 20, 2010
We honestly don’t know. Who would have known these relievers would be getting 3yr deals. With him being one of the best hitters on the market next year and quite a few teams looking for power he could get more than that.
drumzalicious - December 20, 2010 via mobile
I'd guess that he would get more than 4/$12M
maybe a lot more… But that doesn’t mean such a decision would be wise.
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2010
We’re going to be needing a “RH power bat” for at least the next few years with no one in our system who looks like they could step in to that role anytime soon. You’re not going to sign a power hitting FA without overpaying by a year or two anyway, so, really, it’s just a question of when/who you spend that money on.
If 5 years for Uggla means buying off his ARB this season and 4 of his FA years (rather than paying off his Arb this year, then giving him 5 FA years after that), then, IMO, it’s the best option. It would also have Uggla coming off the books the same year that Hanson and Heyward reach FA.
Lennox - December 20, 2010
I'm happy to have Uggla
and I’m happy he could be a Brave for the next 5 seasons. I worry like everyone else that he will fall off after 3-4 years. But I’m still very excited to have him and I think he is going to contribute to a great 2011.
jayjaxon - December 20, 2010
Elephant in the room
We’ve been overpaying a 3B for a few years now on a limited budget. $12m on a more extended budget won’t kill the team at all, but it may cost the opportunity to afford extensions to Heyward/Freeman/Hanson/others before they get VERY expensive in arbitration/free agency.
You can make the argument that Maddux cost the Braves Millwood, Chipper/Andruw cost Furcal, and Lowe cost Vazquez. New ownership could restrict the budget just as easily as they raise it, and that $12 million could really hurt in 2014/2015.
Perfect scenario would be performance-induced vesting options for the 4th and 5th years. If Uggla is still a very valuable guy, then the team gets him at a solid rate for player and team. If he’s not at that level anymore, the team is not strapped to a contract that kills them. Vesting options are becoming more common in the language of the last couple years of a contract in other sports. Baseball’s next CBA will likely be addressing this along with other major issues (draft, international draft, expanded Wild Card, etc.).
biggentleben - December 20, 2010
Are you serious?
Baseball reference has him for a combined 5.6 WAR and worth $23.1m over the last two years. I’m thinking he’s been paid maybe $13m a piece for those two years, making just last year overpaying. in 06, 07, and 08, he was hitting well over .300, with an ops over 1.000.
Mr. Sanchez - December 20, 2010
I suppose someone can make that argument, but I sure wouldn’t want to try. If Maddux cost us Millwood, I find that a very reasonable cost for the greatest pitcher of his generation.
Chopaholic - December 20, 2010
Not at the time of the move though...
as I recall, we offered Maddux arbitration thinking there’d be no way he’d accept. But he did, and we didn’t have the money to pay both so we had to ship Millwood for Estrada.
Mr. Sanchez - December 20, 2010
No.
Even looking at the stats from his worst year as a major leaguer, he is still worth the money and the years.
JohnRocker4CyYoung - December 20, 2010
The problem with that logic
is that you’ll never see a player’s decline coming. There is a 100% chance that Uggla’s worst years are ahead of him; it’s just a matter of when they come, not if.
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2010
Nice Work
This is a great post. I love taking a good post and improving on it. One of the takeaways from it is the correlation between success and staying in shape/healthy. You look at the successes: Sanders, Gant, and Vaughn. All in fantastic shape. You look at the failures/quasi-failures: Jones, Burrell, Glaus, Petrocelli. A mix of overweight guys and oft-injured guys.
You have to think Uggla falls in the former category, given that he is ripped like crazy. Hopefully he can avoid the injury bug, and will never have the Glaus/Jones fat guy problems.
My biggest concern is that he appears to be a douchey Ed Hardy t-shirt type guy. I am pretty sure those guys don’t do well in their mid-30’s. At least they don’t do well with chicks in Buckhead.
ruxsin - December 20, 2010
I was going to post this exact thing.
Except for the Ed Hardy comment, which should definitely be factored in. See, you even improve on posts before they’re made!
king of games - December 20, 2010
the douche factor is huge
Ryan Braun is going to decline around 32. Can’t sustain it.
ruxsin - December 20, 2010
typical of cry babies
most people here want their cake and eat it too. the braves needed power
they got iti as a braves fan i welcome him. don’t diss him until he mucks up more than 1 year. i think he’ll play better here. give the man a chance. . it’s time you whinners just shut-up. FW knows what he is doing better than you.williejay1 - December 20, 2010
whinners?
Doghnut - December 20, 2010
whiners + winners
I’ll take that label.
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2010
I'm not sure that you understood the point of the post.
As I’ve said numerous times, I love Dan Uggla as an offensive player. There’s nothing not to like, really (maybe the strikeouts). Unfortunately, he is 30, and players in their thirties are ticking time bombs. This is not a “diss” on Uggla. I would have said the same thing for just about any player in his 30s.
Jacob Peterson - December 20, 2010
What about the Hawks signing 29-year old Joe Johnson to a 6 year/120MM contract?
Oh wait. Wrong sport.
Jman781 - December 20, 2010
Difference...
salary compared to others, although similar principle of potentially significantly diminished returns on the back end making it not worthwhile overall.
Mr. Sanchez - December 20, 2010
and...
signing uggla doesn’t have the same impact on our roster. the hawks will be middle of the road poop for the foreseeable future becuase of this contract. completely hamstrings them, whereas uggla just makes it slightly more difficult to build.
ruxsin - December 20, 2010
Doesn't have the impact?
For years what everyone has said is that we need a right handed power bat to balance out this lineup. Does a 32 HR guy not do that? No Impact? Who do you suggest we go out and get? Anyone better than Uggla is going to get 18-23 million in free agency for more years than 5. Uggla probably get 15+ if he becomes a free agent. How many 26 year old phenoms do you see signing cheap deals in free agency or moving from team to team, shit just doesn’t happen. We are either going to have to bring thim along throught the farm or get them at the age of 30+. We don’t have the money to compete for the Crawfords of the world.
wcubmac - December 20, 2010
I get the feeling you are screaming at people who generally agree with you
Doghnut - December 20, 2010
Na, Im not really screaming, Im just pointing out the fact that the Braves, and most teams in baseball cant compete in free agency with the top money spenders. Those superstars will not sign for anything less than top dollar. That means we either develop all of our superstars, or trade for them. With Chipper, Lowe, Kawakami, McLouth coming off the books in the next couple years, we can afford Uggla. I can’t think of another player of his calibur that the Braves could pay 12 million to for 5 years.
wcubmac - December 20, 2010
I’m not trying to be a jerk, but 3 of the 4 big contracts coming off the books that you cited were brought in by Wren, 2 as free agents. We don’t have a huge payroll, but we have enough to do what is needed so long as Wren doesn’t just throw money away. I feel like Werth getting 7 years, $126M is grounds for that GM to be fired.
bighop - December 20, 2010
From your list, there isn’t a clear-cut age on when the batters start fading. $12M for Ugga for the next 3 years is a good bet for good production, but the next 2 years may be a disappointment. Going by the rumor of 5 years, it seems the Braves’ front office is banking Ugga to remain in top form till he’s 35! Seems a far-fetched bet if you ask me!
mehmetozgur33 - December 20, 2010
Worried
I just hope this whole thing doesn’t end up smelling like Brett Boone
BravesfaninMontana - December 21, 2010
Bret Boone was a flash in the pan with respect to his career years
Uggla has had many good years
Doghnut - December 21, 2010
I don't think Uggla has recieved any shipments from BALCO.
Jake Humphrey - December 22, 2010
Just saying spending big $$$ on a power hitting 2nd baseman wreaks of history repeating itself
BravesfaninMontana - December 23, 2010
We traded for Boone coming off a (at the time) career year where he hit 24 HRs (in fact, he’d never hit more than 15 HR in any season prior), he came to Atlanta and hit 20 HR for us, and only saw a slight drop in BA/OBP over his previous season. Offensively we got from Boone exactly what anyone would reasonably expect to get.
Boone wasn’t regarded a power hitter until he magically hit 37 HR for the Mariners 2 years later.
We also got Boone with 2 years of Arbitration left, and paid him less than $3 MM that season.
Lennox - December 24, 2010
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