From Yahoo's Tim Brown:
Free agent first baseman Derrek Lee has had surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb, an injury that appeared to limit his production for much of the 2010 season.
Lee, who turned 35 in September, is expected to recover in advance of spring training.
Not much of an effect to the Braves, as they likely won't re-sign him. He is reported to be a type-A free agent, so this injury could impact his value on the free agent market and affect whether or not the Braves offer him arbitration. Coming off of a surgery -- even a minor one in which he played through the pain -- a player is usually less attractive on the free agent market. Add to that his age and the competition he will have with the other notable first basemen who are free agents this winter, and the Braves will probably not offer Lee arbitration (the Braves don't need the extra draft picks that bad).
0 recs | 46 comments
I'd still rather offer him arb.
Never hurts to have a couple extra picks, and even in the off chance he accepts arb, he could be really good next year and could net us something in a trade.
king of games - November 8, 2010
We never were going to offer him arbitration anyway.
There are a relatively large number of relatively similar first basemen available on the market this year, and the arbitration offer would signficantly reduce his attractiveness on the free agent market since he is Class A, meaning he would almost have to accept the offer if we made it.
Basically, if we offer arbitration, we don’t get any picks, we just use up almost all the money we have to spend offseason on a player who plays a position we don’t need someone at because Freddie Freeman is ready. Best case scenario, Lee would consent to a trade (and the player has to consent) and we could move him for a Jesse Chavez type while eating some of his salary.
The thumb surgery really has nothing to do with it, we were never going to offer him arbitration anyway.
cavebird - November 8, 2010
This
Doghnut - November 8, 2010
I agree
Almost no chance even if healthy we were going to offer him arbitration because he probably would have accepted.
was385 - November 9, 2010
Lee will be a steal next year
I don’t think people realize how good Lee can be. Lee is only a year removed from a .306/.393/.579 line. He was hurt at the beginning of the year and it seems like that is everything people remember. He will be healthy next year and he is expected to post a 4.4 WAR by as projected by ZiPS which is a great number. I can see him easily having the following line next year .280/.350/.450 with 20HR and 90RBIs. I would be scare to offer a multi year contract but I would take a gamble for sure on a one year and I don’t believe that he would get the $10+ mil that people is saying he will get. For $8 mil and 1 year which he would get then he would be a steal. AND if he rejects arb we get the picks or we could easily trade him if he does not. Of course there is risk but EVERY player does have risk and I personally believe he is worth it
jvvenez - November 11, 2010
We defintely need to offer Lee a contract for next year in my opinion Freeman isn’t ready yet and what happens if he goes down with an injury? Who will be our backup 1b? Giving the Lee the chance to rebound and giving Freeman more time to develope is a win win. We could always ship Lee after his numbers go up.
HeywardFTW! - November 8, 2010 via mobile
What more does Freeman need to be ready?
He pretty much dominated AAA last year and had a full season there. Is there anything left for him to do? If he gets hurt or struggles, we can make a move during the season. Or we can sign a back-up first baseman who will be a lot cheaper than Derek Lee.
cavebird - November 8, 2010
I don’t understand why you don’t think Freeman is ready to be the everyday first baseman?
Dave_D - November 9, 2010
He hit miserably in the bigs in September and will be recovering from a thumb injury in the offseason.
I don’t agree, but it’s not crazy to think he’s not ready to take over 1B full time.
Yakker - November 9, 2010
I haven't heard anything to indicate...
…that he won’t be fully healthy for Spring Training. Also, the sample size in the majors was incredibly small. That being said, he could always get hurt again or perform poorly.
cavebird - November 9, 2010
I would like to bring up Freeman while offering Lee arb
I mean even when it “didn’t work out” last year with Soriano we still got a good reliever for cheap and we didn’t have to eat any salary. Read my post above and you will see why I think I am sure that we would be able to trade Lee if he accepts. Which by the way I know a certain team that would love to trade for a 1B for a one year reasonable price (hint hint they traded for Soriano last year)
jvvenez - November 11, 2010
Lee
Given Lee’s age and 2010 performance, I fail to appreciate how LEE can hold the Braves hostage in Arbitration. Make a reasonable offer and try working out a trade agreement
B. L. C - November 8, 2010
He is a Class A Free Agent for a reason.
They don’t get chump change in arbitration. It won’t be as high as last year’s salary, but he would get around $10 million. We can’t afford to pay that much for a guy at a position we already have. And since his salary will be for market value, we would never get anything for him in a trade (and he would have to approve, limiting our trade options). If nobody Lee wants to play for needs a first baseman at that salary, we get screwed. And we don’t have a realistic shot of benefit from offering—-given the first basemen on the market who won’t cost a draft pick, and the realization by major league teams that draft picks are valuable, he won’t get the money he wants as a free agent if we offer arbitration and he declines. Our offer would pretty much force him to accept and that wouldn’t be good for us. Hence, we can’t offer. If he was Class B, he wouldn’t cost a draft pick and there would be a reason for us to offer it. But he isn’t, he’s Class A.
cavebird - November 8, 2010
Agreed, again.
Doghnut - November 9, 2010
Peter at CAC had a good post breaking down the math involved. It’s supposedly worth the risk to offer him arb. I don’t like the talk of moving Freeman to LF and resigning D-Lee.
TradeAndruw - November 8, 2010
Thanks for pointing out the post.
I read it, but I think he missed a huge point—-Lee has to approve any trade before June 15th if he accepts arbitration, and he has been picky about where he played in the past (IIRC, he has a special needs child and wants to be near his family) and our market to trade him if he accepted would be extremely small. I don’t think it is worth the risk to offer arbitration to him.
cavebird - November 8, 2010
I think
CAP is not really seeing the reality of the situation. You don’t need to play the percentages here — use common sense and look at the glut of first basemen on the market. Huff/Pena/Dunn/Lee/LaRoche/Berkman/Branyan/Overbay/Konerko.
And when you look at the teams that might actually be interested in Lee, their draft pick is protected — the Nationals and Orioles have so far been the most often linked to him. Lee and his agent will realize that being offered arbitration is the kiss of death to his marketability, and that ~$12M guaranteed is better than he’ll likely get anywhere else.
YakuzaFro - November 8, 2010
IMO though, the second sentence is a neccessary evil of the first...
if you are willing to offer arb, you HAVE to be willing to risk Freeman in LF with Lee at 1st to start the year. It may not end that way, and Lee could easily decline arb (I’d assume the FO has discussed the possibility of Lee accepting with him or his reps), but if you are willing to offer Lee arb and roll those dice, one of the outcomes that has to be acceptable would be Lee accepting and forcing Freeman to LF.
Mr. Sanchez - November 9, 2010
I don’t care what the math is. This kind of thinking has blown up in the faces of the Braves so many times that I do not want to see them go down this path again. You know what the definition of “insane” is? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result every time. The chance of Lee accepting arbitration is very real and that would be an absolute disaster for a team on a strict budget to have allocated another $10+ million to a player they don’t even need.
Zontar - November 9, 2010
Is Freeman really that ready to begin the season as starter. In my opinion, just rocking AAA doesn’t mean you’ll automatically be good in the majors. Not everyone is a Jason Heyward and it doesn’t hurt to have a veteran mentor to pave the way for the kid, but where exactly do we get that veteran?
Walker Wallace - November 9, 2010
You’re never going to find out if he’s ready to play in the majors unless you let him play in the majors. Sending him back to AAA for a year doesn’t do anything to prove him ready, sitting him on the bench in the majors is a waste of resources that will only slow his development.
His defense at 1B, by all accounts, needs no mentoring, and his bat can be mentored by any veteran, regardless of position.
Lennox - November 9, 2010
Worst case, if he struggles hard, you can get a replacement at the trade deadline. There’s always a 1b avaliable, and we have enough pitching to get it done if it’s what it takes.
I don’t think he will though. We may not be getting an all-star, but if he’s a productive enough 6-hole hitter- he’s doing well enough.
Broccoman - November 9, 2010
Even if we wanted a back-up for Freeman...
…in case he struggled, signing a $10 million plus player as Freeman insurance when we only have $15 million to spend in the offseason and have other glaring holes in the lineup is not a good idea.
cavebird - November 9, 2010
That's the problem
He rocked AAA. He played a full season there, more than enough time for adjustments, opponent adjustments, and re-adjustments to be made, and when the dust all settled, Freeman was still adequately better than the competition level. Other than arbitration reasons, or the foolhardy acquisition of a first baseman, there’s little reason to leave him in AAA to start next year. You gotta play MLB competition to get good at MLB competition.
royhobbs - November 9, 2010
I agree that FF had a fine year in AAA, but there were some red flags, notably the K spike and the BABIP. Still, he produced, and that’s the bottom line.
If he’s healthy (and if he’s playing the new COD his thumb better be healthy), I’d have no problem starting him at 1B.
Yakker - November 9, 2010
I'm still a bit stuck on Lee...
he’s better than any other RH bat I see that we can realistically obtain. I understand the potential price tag makes it unlikely at best, but he could decline, or in thinking he’s a better bat than any OF option, if he accepts then he makes our lineup better than other options, and could either have Freeman learn LF for a year or delay his arb clock for a few months waiting on Lee to open a spot. Also if he accepts, you can work a trade even taking pennies on the dollar, either in the off season or in the early part of the year.
Mr. Sanchez - November 9, 2010
This is what I’m thinking, it’s a decent backup plan if we can’t get the OFer we want.
king of games - November 9, 2010
It's not the worst idea in the world
But there in lies the catch-22, 1B and LF are positions of power. Freeman brings the potential for power, and the money could go to an OF with power. Or, the Braves float Lee arb, he accepts, he eats up $11M of spendable money, and we’ve got diminishing power at 1B, and little power with Diaz/McLouth in LF. Personally, I like scenario #1 the most, but in the end, I’d prefer scenario #3 the most – the Braves float Lee arb, he rejects, Braves get draft picks, Freeman starts at 1B, and an OF with some power that’s better than Diaz or McLouth is acquired.
royhobbs - November 9, 2010
The problem with that...
…is that scenario number 3 won’t happen. Given the market, and the value teams have learned to put on draft picks, Lee will be compelled to accept arbitration if we offer it.
cavebird - November 10, 2010
Not necessarily...
that is certainly most likely, but not a sure thing. Lee may be willing to accept a much smaller salary for his services for a year if it gets him in the town he wants to be in.
Mr. Sanchez - November 10, 2010
It still is a mess.
We have to assume he accepts, I don’t see how he isn’t screwed by the offer if he doesn’t accept it. It isn’t realistic to have Freeman learn left field for one season—-assuming he can do it at all, by the time he is ready, it is just about too late.
As for the trades, Lee has to approve before June 15th. That limits our options. We won’t just be taking pennies on the dollar; we’ll be eating salary and getting little to nothing back.
cavebird - November 10, 2010
That last paragraph is all assumption...
that we’d have to eat salary, get nothing back, and one would assume so long as we find the right suitor he can approve a trade.
And is LF really that difficult we can’t stick Freeman there for a year, and get as good or better D than Hinske or FUGA? He could play it all spring and winter to get accustomed to being out there. We’ve sent guys to the OF for a short stint before, Chipper when we signed Castilla, and it was also to be Chipper’s original position on arrival if he doesn’t tear his knee up that spring. It’s not too late to learn it, and he can move back to his natural 1B when Lee is gone.
Mr. Sanchez - November 10, 2010
A couple of problems there...
1. Do we really want Freeman having to get accustomed to a new position and major league pitching at the same time?
2. Freeman is currently injured. The injury will cut into any off-season time to learn the position.
3. Is Derrek Lee really that good for us to do something we don’t want to have to do with Freeman and have us have another season of really poor defense in LF and CF all for a one-year rental of Lee? (b/c moving Freeman to left means that McLouth is in center, and you have to assume Freeman won’t become really good right away in left) I mean, if we wanted to do that, wouldn’t there be other free agent first baseman who might be cheaper and/or a better fit than Lee on an arbitration salary?
cavebird - November 10, 2010
Lee is very good when healthy, and don’t forget he is very good on D at 1st.
king of games - November 10, 2010
But how much does he has left?
He is getting a bit long in the tooth. The thumb injury doesn’t bother me too much, but his back issues scare the crap out of me.
cavebird - November 10, 2010
How difficult is LF?...
to me, #1 isn’t a big issue. He’s going to be dealing with MLB pitching regardless of where he plays, and it’s not like LF takes a ton of prep time, studying time, etc to learn. The reads off the bat may be tough, but that’s more natural instinct to me than anything he’ll have to spend hours working on, and it’s not like the guy can’t catch and throw. SS may be diffucult, catching would be hard to learn as a rookie, but I don’t get how some people think LF is this impossible spot for him to learn. Look how fast Logan Morrison did it for the Marlins, among countless others.
On 2, the thumb keeps him from catching fly balls? He can’t wear a brace?
And 3, as said above, I think Lee is as good or better than any other non-trade candidate for a bat. When healthy, he is a big time producer in the heart of the order.
All that said, I’m not necessarily in favor of offering arb, and even less in favor of having Freeman in LF. But I don’t think many of the reasons given for it being a bad idea , especially the 3 above, are valid.
Mr. Sanchez - November 10, 2010
but
we don’t sign our draft picks as it is (Alvord and Sabol this year, Rendon, anyone), so what’s the point of getting more picks?
apoxonbothyourhouses - November 9, 2010
Alvord and Sabol...
…were late flyers who only lasted that long because everyone knew they were tough if not impossible to sign. The Braves haven’t failed to sign an early round draft pick in a while, by my recollection.
Still, this is irrelevant to Derrek Lee. We won’t get draft picks for him. If we offer him arbitration, we will box him into accepting it.
cavebird - November 9, 2010
I've heard/read...
that Sabol and Alvord were both signable, and even may have agreed to terms, if we had a couple mill more to spend on them. Both them, and other high upside, lower round, above slot demanding draft picks in the most recent draft.
Mr. Sanchez - November 9, 2010
thumb injury
i have heard that before.
joshant - November 9, 2010
Playing devil's advocate here, but
Lee would likely give us a better chance to win THIS year, and Freeman does still have some major holes in his swing that could be fixed. The Braves have the talent to compete this year, and a healthy Lee could be the power bat we really need right now. Yes, Freeman did kill AAA pitching last year and is probably close to ready for the jump, but it’s certainly not going to kill him to spend another half season in AAA.
king of games - November 9, 2010
But is that the full story?
Yes, Lee is likely to perform better than Freeman in 2011. However, Wren has stated that we have about $15 million to spend this offseason, which sounds about right, and Lee would take about $10-$13 million of that. This would leave us very little left to make any other upgrades, and we could use at least an experienced middle reliever and at least one outfielder. Would Lee + a manage of garbage in LF and CF give us a better chance to win in 2011 than Freeman at first and upgrades in the outfield? No, it wouldn’t.
Yeah, if we had an unlimited payroll and keeping Lee would not curtail other moves we could make, Lee would give us a better chance to win in 2011. In the real world, however, he doesn’t.
cavebird - November 9, 2010
I guess it depends on Wrens confidence that he will be able to land an impact OFer. I have no idea what Lee would realistically get from arbitration, but even if he spent 10mil on Lee and got a decent OFer for 3-4 mil and signed a decent righty for the pen for 1mil, I think we could win. That of course also assumes that Lee will be healthy and return to his regular power numbers.
king of games - November 9, 2010
But why take that risk?
There are plenty of free agent first basemen available. Why commit to Lee early (which we would have to do if we offered arbitration) when we don’t know what the outfield search will bring (and really, it will be hard finding a good OF at all, I can’t imagine we’ll get one in the 3 million dollar range) when we can always get another firstbaseman later if we happen to get a good cheap OF? And even then, if we do get a good cheap OF, why not get another OF if we can instead of a first baseman who is only a small to medium upgrade from a guy we already have who is essentially free? It seems that Lee is a luxury we cannot afford—-with our payroll, we need some production from underpriced players and we will likely get that from Freeman. Sure we could get more production from Lee, but it won’t be underpriced.
cavebird - November 9, 2010
I agree
I would much rather have a couple of really good OFers. It’s really a shame that we’ll be getting so little power from our corner infielders, the traditional power spots. That’s really what has exposed our OF so badly over the last few years.
king of games - November 9, 2010
Still....
….Chipper, if healthy, should get on base a ton. And Freddie should have some power, with more to come in the future.
cavebird - November 10, 2010
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