A St. Johns student attempts to play the Braves as he makes the case for the team's mythical arbitration number versus the arbitration number the player, Jair Jurrjens, would purportedly submit. It's an interesting rebuke of Jurrjens, and uses all sorts of advanced metrics and targeted statistics. It would be interesting to know if this is how the Braves would approach an arbitration case with Jurrjens -- especially if they use all these advanced statistics. Here is my favorite line, and a very interesting stat to pull out of the hat:
The Braves average home attendance in 2010 was 30,989 people, good for 13th in Major League Baseball. However, in games that Mr.Jurrjens started, that average number dropped to 26,794, 4,195 people less than average. Therefore, Mr. Jurrjens should not be credited with helping his team make the playoffs or boosting their attendance in 2010.
"That's right! No one came to see you, punk!" Jurrjens could have had the misfortune of pitching on Tuesdays and Wednesdays a lot rather than the weekend. If I was Jurrjens' agent I would counter with the fact that Kenshin Kawakami averaged 31,341 in home attendance in games he started, and we KNOW people weren't showing up to see him pitch.
Still, interesting read.
0 recs | 5 comments
I had to do a similar, yet much more simplistic version of this for Reed Johnson in my Sports Law class at St. John’s. Interesting read for sure.
BenDuronio - November 23, 2010
I don't think
they use advanced metrics in arbitration. I think they use W-L & ERA only.
Brian. - November 24, 2010
You're kidding, right?
MichaelProcton - November 25, 2010
Arbitration stats used are old school, it’s true
bighop - November 26, 2010
According to the CBA, things taken into consideration are players contribution to the club during the past season, 2) the length and consistency of his playing career; 3) his past recorded compensation amounts; 4) comparative baseball salaries of other similar players; 5) the existence of any mental or physical defects and 6) the recent performance of the team. It never mentions what exact stats they use. If you can determine a players worth using advanced metrics and that sways the arbitration panel, you have done your job. If they just used W-L and ERA that would not be a fair assessment of a pitchers overall value.
Michael Goldberg - November 30, 2010
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