Talking Chop

a bad feeling like...

we could have upton and heyward in the same outfield for at least the next 5 years? sounds pretty awful.

Don't get me wrong

I’d love having Upton assuming the price is right. But my guess is that price is going to be something like JT, Minor or Jurrjens, Kimbrel or Venters and then Bethancourt.

You guys have to realize Upton is one of the few reasons fans go to the DBacks games. I’d say 90% of the jerseys are Upton’s. Good luck selling this move to the fans.

I realize that..

I also realize that there are reports that he is available.

We obviously aren’t GMs, but I’d imagine just about every player is available during the off-season.

Kevin Towers is GM’ing over there, so that means we’ll talk about an Upton deal for six weeks, they’ll keep him, and he’ll go to the South Side in June, right?

J-Freak - November 16, 2010 reply

the Braves would be crazy not to pull the trigger on that potential deal you describe. it would probably take more though

Yeah, who knows at this point. It’s just going to be a ton.

If only we had someone on the ground in 'Zona to get the other side of the story...

Jman781 - November 16, 2010 reply

lol

I’ll do my best and put my Ken Rosenthal pants on.

don’t forget the bowtie.

10-4 - November 16, 2010 reply

not for JT

Minor/Jurrjens, Kimbrel and Bethancourt yes

no way that’s enough

I’d counter with Jurrjens, Venters, and Hoover.

Actually, I’d say the biggest reasons fans go to DBacks games are to see the Cubs and Dodgers.

The Keith Lockhart Era - November 16, 2010 reply

This.

This would be the

coolest thing to hit Atlanta since the Crime Dog ya’ll!! Look, I don’t want to give up top line prospects for just anyone, but JU is a spectacular talent and is contractual GOLD. It takes talent to get talent, and we NEED someone just like him. I’d consider it a good thing if he was only controlable for three years. But this guy is for 5 freakin years. I love all the previosly mentioned pitchers, but I’d make any of them available except for Teheran and Venters. JV is my fave for closer just edging out Kimbrell.

Imagine JH and JU in the corner spots. Then picture a line up card that read like this:

1.Prado 4
2.Upton/Heyward 7/9
3.Upton/Heyward 7/9
4.McCann 2
5.Chipper 5
6.Gonzalez 6
7.Freeman 3
8.McLouth 8
9.SP 1

I know the Chipper in the 5 hole is a radical move in and of itself, but I think Fredi is gonna shake things up a bit and I think Chip will be ok with it. Who knows? All I know is I LOVE this game and sometimes, the offseason can be almost as exciting as it is during the regular season.

With Infante, Mather, Ross and Hinske or someone like him our bench is rock freakin solid. PLUS we still have a good portion of the expected 10-15 mil which we can use to put the final pieces together for a solid, solid ballclub. Here we go FW. Here’s your big chance to make a real difference making move.

coachrob - November 16, 2010 reply

Why?

For one,

this probably isn’t happening. Kevin Towers just became the GM and everyone out in Arizona knows their ticket sales sucked. If they trade Upton, he’s looking at a PR nightmare and no one would go to the games.

Two, for what it would cost, I don’t think it’s worth it. Upton is a solid player, but he’s not worth the asking price. (unless it’s a lot lower than I’m predicting.)

Justin Upton is one of the best young players in the game.

Wrong.

He has the most POTENTIAL of any young player in the game. He hasn’t had one great season yet.

I’m not trying to look like a snob here, but if the price is what I think it’ll be, I think the Braves would regret the trade.

I agree though, a Upton/Heyward combo in the outfield would be sick.

I have two concerns

1. Durability. So far, he has no season with over 138 games played. He’s basically averaging a month out per year.
2. Plate discipline. 30% strikeout rate. 20 GIDP in 2010. Wild BA spreads over his career.

I suppose the DBacks are looking at these things and figuring he won’t improve ~~- plus, his rent-controlled contract is backloaded so that they would get $10m/yr (+/~~) of relief over the next 5 years. BUT, if some of our guys can rub off on him and help him mature at the plate, then he could be a monster, and be worth that coin. Heck, even with the flaws, he still averages about an .800 OPS.

It has the potential to be anywhere between a bad contract for 5 yrs. — or a perennial winner. Be careful what you spend for such things.

carpengui - November 16, 2010 reply

Dang html interpreter.

carpengui - November 16, 2010 reply

True

Remember what Kevin Towers wanted from us for Peavy….

-Primetime21- - November 16, 2010 reply

Who besides Escobar?

TradeAndruw - November 16, 2010 reply

Towers basically

threw a fit because he wanted Hanson or Heyward, and refused to give in without one of them.

I could be wrong, but I thought Escobar was the major stickingp oint in that deal

He was the centerpiece

or at least the Braves wanted him to be so. Towers basically refused to give Peavy without one of the 2 big H’s and neither side (Wren rightfully so) would give in.

More like Peavy

Peavy didn’t want to go to the Braves if Escobar was included, because Peavy being a groundball guy, really wanted a guy like Escobar fielding behind him.

royhobbs - November 16, 2010 reply

Holy cow

was that really two years ago?

Time flies.

Torgo's Executive Powder - November 16, 2010 reply

Yes, yes

For the love of god yes.

The Braves have a ton of pitchers under team control for the next 4-6 years. Hanson, Jurrjens, Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Teheran, Delgado, not to mention Hudson. If a package centered around Minor could get it done, I hope Wren pulls the trigger. They could even try to sign Vazquez to fill Minor’s rotation slot in 2011 if they don’t want to take the immediate risk caused by Medlen’s injury. Upton and Heyward manning the corner outfield spots for half a decade should cover that potential problem up nicely.

if we don't include JT (which i would pray we wouldn't)

it would definitely take a core of delgado/minor

woops

i didn’t mean and/or .. i meant BOTH delgado and minor and then some

Pulling this off

Would be clutch

HansonManCrush - November 16, 2010 via mobile reply

The Deal Will Look like this

It will be

D’Backs get: Jair Jurrjens, Randall Delgado, Cory Gearrin, Mike Dunn, Steven Marek, Christian Bethancourt.

Braves Get: Justin Upton.

D’Backs get a TOR starter to build on a nice young AA starter who projects as a #2 in 1-2 years, 3 good bull pen arms for next season and a Catcher who will be ready in 3 years. All in all they get 4 Major League players now and 2 that aren’t far away. This is exactly what you want when you move a young star, and he replaces 3 spots in what was the probably the worst BP in major league history.

mauck98 - November 16, 2010 reply

It would be great to have Upton

but knowing Towers from the Peavy trade talks, he will publically insist on Teheran in an attempt to leverage Wren into making him available, and basically has no ability to keep his mouth shut during trade negotiations. As much as I want this to happen (on the right terms), Kevin Towers sucks and I wish it were just about any other GM.

Ben, I think you got a little carried away.

In the post, you state that Teheran “is as close to untradeable as a prospect ever gets.” While Teheran is incredibly valuable, I can see some situations in which he could be traded - like situations involving Ryan Braun. And let’s face it, he isn’t as close to untradeable as a prospect ever gets. See: Heyward, Jason, last offseason.

agree

but i would definitely feel torn there. don’t envy wren for having to make that decision

There sure is alot of manlove for Braun.

I would not trade Teheran for him.

TCfromDubVee - November 16, 2010 reply

Why not?

Braun is already an elite hitter. He has done it for four years. The floor of his production over the next five cost control years is very high and the ceiling is very high. For Teheran, he would have six cost-controlled years, and his ceiling is through the roof. His floor, however, is not nearly as high. Just like every other pitching prospect, he is one pitch away from missing 12-18 months at all times. With the ceiling similar and Braun’s floor much higher, it seems like a no-brainer to me for a straight up trade.

From what Teheran has shown, he has the ability to be as good as any pitcher. Will he get there, maybe not, but at this point it is very tough for a team to trade that type of player when they have as much depth as the Braves have. They can get a center fielder and left fielder without giving up Teheran, which should be what they are trying to do.

Exactly.

I don’t like the idea of trading our #1 prospect. Especially when we can offer someone else.

TCfromDubVee - November 16, 2010 reply

I understand that, but...

…when you are talking about a huge commodity in return like Braun, it might take Teheran, and he should be considered. Basically, Braun could be as good as just about any hitter and already has been. So, if that is what it took to get Braun, I would do it. Of course, you try to get them to take other guys first, but if that doesn’t work, you move him if you are getting Braun in return.

My basic point is still obviously correct: Teheran is not as untradeable as Heyward was at this time last year. Hence, Teheran is not as close to untradeable as a prospect ever gets.

braun has a cap on his value because of his poor D

(not that he isn’t awesome)

but we’re not going to get him.

Poor D in the OF

but he came up as a 3rd basemen and was shifted to LF. I wouldn’t cry if he went to 3rd when Chipper hangs em up.

He went to the OF...

…because he sucked at third. His OF defense has actually improved to reasonably mediocre. He’ll stick in left.

as there should be

young, cheap, ~5+ WAR outfielders that haven’t reached their peak years aren’t a dime a dozen.

Hudson's Soul Patch - November 16, 2010 reply

I’m in on this one. To young great outfielders under control and not eating away at our payroll !!!! Fantastic. With the amoutn of money we would have left over we could do great things! DO IT.

rcates - November 16, 2010 reply

How can people not like this trade??

Is everything we’ve been looking for in the past 5 years. An outfielder that’s bats right handed, has power, and speed. Unless Teheran is in the deal, you HAVE to pull the trigger.

Realistically

The Diamondbacks would probably demand Teheran and more. Maybe the Braves could get something done with Freeman, Minor, Delgado, and more.

I feel like people are downgrading Upton because he’s been in the league. If he was a prospect (which he realistically could be since he is only heading into his age 23 season) he would easily be the #1 prospect and it wouldn’t even be close. The only difference is that he is under control for 5 years instead of 6 and will cost $50M, which is still a great deal for a player like him. The chances that guys who have had this kind of success at a young age not turning into superstars are extremely slim.

I love prospects as much as anyone, but I would basically do whatever it takes to get Upton.

Let's get crazy and suggest this, then:

Freeman and Teheran for Upton, then take some money and grab a guy like Cantu at 1B, then re-sign Hinske to platoon.

Prado – 2B
Chipper – 3B
Heyward – RF
Upton – LF
McCann – C
Cantu – 1B/Hinske
Mc-out – CF
AGonz – SS
Pitcher

That should read Cantu/Hinske...proofread fail

That is a great line-up. I think the Braves would be able to get someone better than Cantu though.I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing Lee back.

no, it is asinine

trade both our top position and pitching prospect and then sign a scrub like cantu? let me go ingest some cyanide real quick

While you're doing that

what would you rather have? A combination of Freeman and Infante/Diaz in LF, or Cantu/Hinske and Justin Upton. I’ll take the latter.

You can’t expect Liberty to open their wallet and say “hey guys, just go ahead and increase the payroll by $20 million.” Would I rather have Derrick Lee at 1B next season under this scenario, of course. It’s just not going to happen, given our payroll limitations.

cantu "killed lefties?"

yeah, he killed them to a tune of a .648 OPS. do your homework next time. hinske wasn’t exactly a world-beater vs righties, with a .759 OPS. you just clearly don’t know what you’re talking about.

i would rather not trade our 2 best prospects for upton – one of which would just move the hole in our lineup from LF/CF to 1B. freeman will not be included in this trade if it goes down. period.

let me end by this: don’t put words in my mouth. i never said anything about “opening wallets” – just that your trade package was asinine, because it is. also it is derrek lee.

Nor I, but...

you have to remember we would be taking on about $10 million per season with the acquisition of Upton, and I believe we only really have about $15 million to spend. I highly doubt that Lee would take a $5 million contract.

Cantu kills lefties, Hinske kills righties – they can both be had for that $5 million that we have left over to spend if and when we acquire Upton. Of course, then we would have to find that veteran reliever – that becomes Marek because he’s cheap and right-handed in this scenario.

fair enough

That's a bit too much.

For starters, if we don’t make the deal, we can find someone better than a Diaz/Infante platoon in left. Thus, the comparison should be between someone we could sign for the money Upton makes (say Ordonez) + Freeman vs. Upton + Hinske/Cantu. I would take the former on that one. For starters, Cantu is not a good baseball player. He has almost no platoon splits at all (Career: .764 OPS vs. righties, .773 OPS vs. lefties) and his career numbers are not good at all for a first baseman. Hinske has a much bigger platoon split, but his career .799 OPS vs. righties isn’t that good either.

I might well give up Teheran for Upton, but not both Teheran and Freeman; that’s just too much.

Gotcha, I guess my point is...

I really believe the D-Backs will ask for that much (see also the Peavy trade from 2 years ago when Towers was clamoring for either Hanson or Heyward in the deal).

Yeah, I know they'll want a lot...

…and I might well give them Teheran. But not both Teheran and Freeman. Besides, I don’t think they would want Freeman as much as other teams would because they have a similar prospect of their own in Brandon Allen.

I read your post in rosterbation

and I didn’t realize they had a kid on the farm, so I can understand that. Instead of FF, you’d have to look at JT and, say, maybe Minor and a B-level prospect?

If they want too much, go somewhere else. I’m not going to sell the farm. I’ll pay retail, but not premium.

Jurrjens+Venters is plenty.

That won't come close to getting Upton...

…and is not nearly as valuable as Upton. That’s not retail, that bargin bin. JJ is already hitting arbitration and only has team control for 3 more years. Venters, a relief pitcher, isn’t nearly enough to bridge the value gap between Upton and JJ. If we overvalue our own players, we make no trades and end up being force to resign Melky to play OF.

YOU SHUT YOUR FILTHY MOUTH!

There will be a lot of TCers in prison if we resign Melky!

If we trade Freeman and Teheran for Upton, I’ll shoot ~~myself~~ Frank Wren. That is a marvelously bad idea.

J-Freak - November 16, 2010 reply

Even if Teheran is in the deal, you have to pull the trigger. We have pitching. Right now, we need hitting. We have the minor league pitching depth to withstand losing Teheran

The braves are not trading Teheran.

It’s already pretty much been said by Wren.

MBL1 - November 16, 2010 reply

It’s been said by Wren. But at the time, I doubt that anybody thought that Upton was available. To trade Teheran for a Rasmus or Kemp would be a mistake. But when a superstar in the making comes along…. well…

Isn't Rasmus a...

…future superstar in the making, too? I know he is left handed, but his ceiling isn’t far below Upton’s and he plays center. (On the other hand, I would trade Teheran for Rasmus, too.)

I think (definitely could be extremely wrong) that scouts believe that Upton has a much higher ceiling and much higher chance of getting to his ceiling than Rasmus. I think that Rasmus is going to be a star, but not a elite player like Upton has a chance to be.

I would agree that Upton has a higher ceiling...

…but I don’t think the difference is as much as you apparently do.

Only problem that I have with Rasmus is

he’s LH, which we’re already heavy on in our lineup.

Upton played plenty of center field in the minors.

And his major league defense in right has been great. Does anyone think he could play center in Atlanta better than say McLouth? If he could, wow, he just becomes that more valuable.

I do.

well mclouth is pretty bad in cf

so yes

Defensive OF of Upton/Heyward/Gwynn Jr.

That would be extremely sick.

how do we get Gwynn Jr.?

I really don’t know, have there been trade talk or something?

There's talk of him being non-tendered

Yes, non-tender candidate. San Diego has like 6 OFers so they’ll likely non-tender a couple. He would be cheap and brings exceptional defense with pretty much no offense. Ideal 4th OFer or solid starting CFer if you have a defensive liability in one of the corners.

Couldn’t we do that cheaper with Jordan Schaefer?

Plus his bat might recover.

Possibly, but one Gwynn is one of the best defensive OFers in the game, and two I think they want Schaefer in the minors to try to find his swing. He still has a chance to develop into an all around OFer, so why make him a defense-only player right now?

Bat him 8th.

Wouldnt be any worse than Mclouth, and would have better D

Hard to believe his offense is what it is considering who his dad is.

JasonHeywardisGod - November 16, 2010 reply

I know this couldnt realistically happen

but what if we got both uptons with heyward
best of for years to come and the brothers would be happy, any way to do that I’D do it
:)

The Upton brothers have both said they wouldn’t be able to play with each other at this point in their careers. Maybe when they got older they both agreed they could.

dunnytwogloves - November 16, 2010 reply

I bet they would...

If we made them!!

-C

JasonHeywardisGod - November 16, 2010 reply

TRADE ANYONE BUT TEHERAN

with how good he’s been you never know how far he can sprout up, I think justin upton will hit 30 plus hrs tihs year, last year he was off, he will hit more than 22 hrs IMO

If it meant the difference between Upton or no Upton

I would trade Teheran and it really isn’t even a close call for me. Obviously if you can get him without giving up JT that’s preferable but with our pitching depth, to have Upton and Heyward solidifying that outfield and forming one of the most god-like 3-4’s for the next couple of years, I would do it.

Next five years.

Not just next couple of years. ;)

I posted this in the other 2 threads

Upton is the perfect person for us I just didnt think he would actually be available. He’s young, cheap, and right handed.

I was saying that Freeman would have to be included in a package but I found out they have a good 1B prospect already so maybe a deal of

Beachy
Hoover
Vizcaino
Marek
Gearrin
Dunn

They basically get a rotation and some arms they could put in their pen at the beginning of next season.

To be honest if we got Upton I would flip and love Fran Wren for forever. I believe he could be better than Braun would for us simply because he can actually play defense,

drumzalicious - November 16, 2010 reply

HAHAHA

There is not one top prospect in that group. Towers would hang up the phone and either be insulted or just die laughing. The best prospect in that group has big injury concerns and the rest are mediocre starters or mediocre relief prospects. Come on

Vizcaino and Beachy are arguably both top ten, but I agree. They are looking for talent more than depth, and relievers don’t have much value in these types of trades.

Vizcaino will be the kind of depth player in any potential deal, not the headliner

I figure any conversation are centered around Teheran, Minor, Freeman, Delgado with guys like Vizcaino, Kimbrel, Bethancourt, etc. as the second tier pieces.

true

I actually think we would have to give up Minor to get him

drumzalicious - November 16, 2010 reply

Vizcaino was hurt

but He was the centerpiece of the Vazquez deal.. I really think after next year he will be a top prospect again

MikeTrain - November 16, 2010 reply

It depends on how this year goes.

He had a elbow injury but treated it with rehab instead of surgery. That scares me in that it may become surgery and another lost year. Some people who do this with rehab end up fine, others not so much.

and this off-season he isn't

The dbacks aren’t going to give him that kind of value because he potentially could be a top prospect again in a year.

forgotten_glory - November 16, 2010 reply

i'm in agreement

JT should be the only one off limits of our prospects

I disagree

As someone posted earlier, JT is one pitch away from never making the majors. I understand his upside and everything else, and I’d hate to give him up, but if you’re going after a guy like Upton or Ryan Braun, you need to include him. We have the depth at SP in the minors…you make that trade, 10 times out of 10.

You have a proven talent in a guy like Upton to pair up with Heyward for half a decade, to go along with a young nucleus of pitching (JJ, Hanson, Minor, Beachy, Delgado, Vizcaino). We need offensive help in a big way…this is the chance to get it done.

If we have to give up Teheran then it is not worth it. There are other outfielders who can be traded for that, while they may not be Upton talents, can help this team win.

dolphinnation is the same guy

that said the trade should be freeman AND teheran above. so… yeah.

Yeh, trading either of them is a bad idea.

so…
would you trade freeman + venters/kimbrel for upton?

(hypothetical)

Nope. I’d do Jurrjens/Minor, Vizcaino, Bethancourt, and M. Jones.

what about teheran + venters/kimbrel for longoria?

there have to be players you’d give up JT for

Have people heard of...

TNSTAAPP. Not sure I buy into it 100%, but ask Nat fans how excited they are about Strassy right now. If it comes down including JT for Upton (and his affordable contract) or not, I think GMs would tell you it’s a no brainer.

granman29 - November 16, 2010 reply

....

no, they wouldn’t. a no-brainer? it is definitely a “brainer” when you have the best pitching prospect in baseball. nats fans still are – and should be – excited about strasburg. with the rate of successful recovery from TJ surgery strasburg likely will come back just as strong (if not stronger, as many pitchers have indicated) from the surgery.

Fair enough, but...

Maybe I am over valuing Upton, but I think with that contract he has the potential to be one of the best five values in baseball over the next five years. Of course Teheran could prove to be amazing, but the chances of him equaling Upton’s value seem slim.

granman29 - November 20, 2010 reply

Teheran has better mechanics than Stras...

less injury prone, and I’d bet they are still excited about 6 years of Strasberg.

They only get five.

DL time is service time, so 2011 counts.

Ben---why include M. Jones?

We need infield guys and he isn’t enough of a prospect to be the piece that gets the D-Backs to bite.

Yes. If needbe move Prado to 1st, put Matt Young at 2nd. That won’t do it though.

Then cross off

Braun, Rasmus (although it was said earlier this morning the Cards won’t move him) and Upton off your list.

Of course, there’s always Ordonez or Pat the Bat for yet another stopgap in the Braves outfield. /sarcasm

you must be good friends with the GMs of those teams

to be able to report this information

Do your homework next time

MLBTR – I’ll find the link for you, so you don’t have to strain yourself.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/cardinals-rumors-pujols-uribe-tejada.html

Link

yeah, i read MLBTR

and it doesn’t, in a single place, say that we can’t acquire one of those guys without teheran.

you’re in a hole. stop digging.

Both of you just relax, we’re talking baseball trades not politics =)

I was referring to Rasmus

which is where it seemed you were heading with that crack about being friends with GM

Okay, crossed off. I’d much rather trade for B.J. than to give up Teheran for his brother.

Hudson's Soul Patch - November 16, 2010 reply

You can't just expect Teheran to have an injury.

That’s like saying Heyward is one fly ball away from tearing his hamstring, you can’t assume injuries

Dually noted...just making a point about potential

You CAN predict Chipper will go on the DL with an oblique strain at some point in a season.

cool story bro

If it happens

can it happen in May, instead of October?

What if Frank went all JS on us

Trades Minor, Vizcaino, Hoover, Dunn, and Marek for Upton

Then trades Jurrjens, Delgado, Bethancourt, other prospect for Braun

OK OK

Im done rosterbating for like a month.

after this

Prado
Heyward CF
Chip 3B
Braun LF
McCann C
Upton RF
Freeman 1B
Gonzo SS

ok . . . . now im done

drumzalicious - November 16, 2010 reply

Is that the Yankees lineup?

That is an insane amount of young talent to trade away....

but my God, an OF of Heyward, Justin Upton, and Ryan Braun for the next five years, wow. That’s just nuts. Completely nuts. We’d still have Hanson, Hudson, and Lowe for the next two years as well. The rest of the rotation might be well, uh, some guys we throw out there, but, man we would score some runs.

God I have flashbacks of the Tex trade

but this time, it’d be for 5 seasons, rather than 1.

and hopefully we wouldn't trade ryan braun's last year for casey kotchman

YOU BIT YOU'RE TONGE...

when you talk about Casey Kotchman.

facepalm

We could easily restock our system in 5 years.

Add Tony Gwynn Jr. as the defensive 4th OFer and a couple decent pen arms. And if we could upgrade SS after next year, wow.

If you are going to rosterbate...

…this is the way to do it! This is just too much fun to contemplate. It will never happen, and we might not be able to afford it, and we’ll have holes in our rotation. Still, I think we need the janitor for this one.

Hmmm, well since you put it that way

let’s get Adrian Gonzalez too!

of course, our farm system would consist of the TC members for the next 5 years...LOL

hey

But we’d have Teheran.

hope he can pitch every 3rd day...LOL

theoretically

We could still get A Gonz

Trade Freeman, Matt Lipka, Adam Milligan, Brett DeVall, and Scott Diamond.

Prado
Chip
A Gonz
Braun
McCann
Upton
Heyward
Gonzo

Heyward batting 8th in that scenario

Meh…not a terrible lineup /sarcasm

He’s 7th. No where else to bat him.

Leadoff?

ok thats it...

we have to draw a line somewhere

ROFLMFAO!!!

Cops!!!

guys

We wont have holes in our rotation. We’d still have Beachy and a couple of AAAA guys. Not to mention free agent pitchers.

I would sign Garland and call it a day.

Rotation is then
Hanson
Hudson
Lowe
Garland
Beachy

Then we still have guys like Scott Diamond and Ortegano in AAA if someone goes down. Plus who knows Teheran might pull a Hanson on us.

That lineup would be sick though.

It would be freeking ridiculous

look i made the post last night about Upton when i saw it

but now that i’m hearing Braun is available, I don’t see how we couldn’t offer JJ, Delgado, Vizcaino and Bethancourt/Salcedo and i don’t see how they could reject that.

In my opinion, if we landed Braun and kept FF and Julio, i would say that was the BEST possible thing Wren and Co. could have done for the team during the offseason.

$4m, $6m, $8.5m, $10m, $12m for the next 5 years for possibly the best hitting OF in the league. ARE YOU KIDDING… we could have the best two hitting OF under control for 5 years.

If he is available, please Frank, drop EVERYTHING else and GET IT DONE.

The Brewers....

…could reject that. It is Ryan Braun with a great contract. That’s a nice package, and they might accept it, but they could easily reject it too.

They COULD reject anything obviously. But honestly, that’s probably the best prospect package anyone could offer, and they’re not going to win with the core they have now.

Bring it on!

but under the situation

their rebuilding, possibly could resign the fat ass with the cheap playersbeing brought in and left over money from Braun and where better to start the rebuilding process than a ton of arms?

You never know what people will offer when they learn he is available.

The Rays, always needing cost controlled players and being stocked with prospects, could easily top that package if they wanted to.

we have gone from Rasmus/Kemp to a collection of OF’s to Uggla to Braun/Upton in the span of 1 month…..Funny how unorganized public rosterbation is

Just following the rumors mate.

oh yeah

I’m not saying i don’t do it or criticizing anyone else. I’m just noting how funny it is.

Other Teams

We aren’t going to be the only team in on talks for Upton/Braun if this actually happens, which makes me think its going to be tough to pull a trade of this magnitude off w/o JT. Look at how Cliff Lee to the Rangers went down.

sexbobomb - November 16, 2010 reply

We have the pitching prospects to pull off trades with rebuilding teams. So we may not be the only team, but we are the best equipped.

well apparently the Red Sox are in on him

Aannnnd they can pretty much stack up as well as us with pitching not to mention they could throw Ellisbury out there.

just read that too

FML

Just so you know

Dave Cameron ranked Justin Upton as the #11 on his trade value list. For reference, he was ahead of Ryan Braun at #12, Colby Rasmus at #14, and McCutchen at #19, Jay Bruce at #25, Shin Choo-Soo at #28, etc.

Other Notables: Beat McCann (26), Hanson (36), and Prado (47).

The only Brave ahead of him on that list was Jason Heyward at #2.

In other words, doesn’t matter who is in on Justin Upton, the chance of him actually being traded is very very very close to 0%.

Also

a recap of what these rankings mean according to Cameron:

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization – his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances – and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball. The #1 guy wouldn’t get traded, straight up, for any other player in baseball. The #10 guy is someone who his organization would call untouchable, but if one of the nine guys above him was made available, they’d rethink that stance. You get the idea.

think of the children...

this is a great rosterbation so get away with your common sense. AND I do actually believe it is possible, maybe unlikely but possible. If I have to give a percentage I give it a 15% chance.

"More like 1 in a million.."

“So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

If I wasn’t a newbie I’d post Jim Carey’s picture from Dumb and Dumber here…LOL

lol

the d-backs are going no where with Upton so a trade for pitching does make sense, so I don’t believe is that far off. Talking about a trade that is 100% likely (which does not exist, or already anounced) would not be much fun.

It isn't like the D-Backs pitching is that horrible

and that division isn’t exactly stellar either. If the D-Backs are going to sell Upton, they might as well do a full re-build, and they are in no way so far out of contention to justify that. Their farm system isn’t barren, they don’t have a bunch of aging veterans with albatross contracts. In other words, this isn’t the Astros. I think you are mis-interpeting the D-Backs situation and I think that Kevin Towers is simply talking. I don’t see a deal happening, whether it be to the Braves or any team.

Well...

…the D-Backs rotation isn’t great (for cripes sake they had Rodrigo Lopez in it all year), and their bullpen is that horrible.

I never said

it was great either. But the point is, it isn’t “blow the whole damn thing up and start from scratch” bad. That is the only scenario where it would justify trading a commodity like Justin Upton.

With Upton signed for the next five years

Even a “blow the whole thing and start from scratch” doesn’t necessarily justify trading Upton.

kishi - November 16, 2010 reply

exactly

it just doesn’t make sense, and I just can’t see it happening.

well I'm not a newbie soooo

Was Pujols numero uno?

I’m sure he is.

no

Don’t even think he was ranked. Evan Longoria was #1. Pujols loses lots of points because of his current contract (which is low enough, but is done after this season) and the expectation of his future contract (which should be in the range of the Marlins entire payroll per season).

That's right

I forgot the Rays did the smart thing and bought up Longoria’s arb years when he first came up.

yeah

he will be underpaid for so long, such a good contract for the Rays it is ludicrous.

Wasn't it like a 6 year deal or something?

That’s just sick.

no

he’s about to make something like 10/ $275 MM

very good, but very well paid

it’s much better to have someone like heyward, who is going to make hardly anything for the next 4 or so years

I don't think the Cards sign him for 10 years

more like 8 years and $240 million. I hear what you’re saying though.

i think we'll do something with heyward

like the rays or brewers did with Longoria and Braun…… I think they’ll avoid all that for a while

I really hope so

A la the Mutts with Reyes and David Wright

i dont see him playing a "contract year" for a while

By this time in their careers they were both signed. Hoping for a McCann-esque contract with more money is hopeful though.

yeah, i was just throwing numbers out there

reply fail

Bubble bursting here

This will not happen. FW has already stated he wants to keep our core of SP/prospects. Arizona will not trade their BEST/face of the franchise to us for Minor/JJ/betancourt.
This deal would take JT/Beachy/betancourt/MORE. He’s cost controlled, plays a very good RF, and has the ability to, dare I say this blasphemy, be a Jason heyward.
He would fit, but the price will be extremely too steep. Thanks, but no thanks.

murph35 - November 16, 2010 via mobile reply

To be honest

GM’s don’t publicly say much at all. So when they do, you have to listen carefully. If Towers (who is completely new at his job, with less than 2 months of experience as AZ’s GM) says that Upton is available, he’s making a conscious decision that affects his team’s relationship with the fans. If he does intend (at all) to trade Upton, he is not going to make a statement to the public that will fully alienate the fans of his new team. Trading Upton for anything less than Major League equivalent talent (not prospects) is throwing in the towel for Arizona’s 2011 season. There is no way that he endangers ticket sales or the fans’ belief in the organization by making such a statement unless he thinks that this is actually going to get him anywhere.

FW has repeatedly stated that he wants to keep our core of SP prospects together: this is true. But these statements came in the past. When an opening like this comes along, sometimes you have to make compromises. Wren is going to make an offer (In my opinion, anyway), and it is going to include one of our big three pitching prospects (Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino).

Let's face it.

Wren says he does not want to trade from our SP depth because that is our position of strength. He also says that it will likely be the trade market where we fill our OF needs. But if he isn’t going to trade from our position of strength, what is he going to do, trade from one of our positions of weakness? Wren is just saying he won’t trade the pitchers so that it looks like a bigger deal when he offers one. Otherwise, we don’t really have anything to trade.

I agree

And when Wren as making comments regarding trading our better SP prospects, the trade market didn’t have Upton on it. This changes a lot of things (or should change, anyway).

Heyward is 3 years younger and already just about as good, how could Upton be a potential Heward?

Well, he’s that good. And you wouldn’t call Heyward a potential Upton, now would yo?

I think I might. There seems to be endless frothing and foaming over the Upton brothers, but the results aren’t all that great.

Teheran for Upton.

Would you do it?

No.

~5 WAR player for the next 5 years in a position we desperately need

yes

In an instant. Real question, would they do it?

absolutely not

Yes.

My opinion

I believe that Justin Upton is, at some point in his career, going to be a superstar and one of the premier outfielders in the game. But I highly doubt that its going to happen until he figures out his contact issues, which is not going to happen next year. If scouting can be believed and the hype is true, in about a year’s time, I really believe that Teheran by himself could fetch Justin Upton plus more in a trade. I’m not saying that Teheran is going to better in a year than Upton, and neither am I saying that one is going to have a better career. But if he does again what he has done this year, Teheran is going to have significantly higher trade value next offseason.

There’s a pretty decent chance that Upton right now is who he is and will be.

If our numbers 2 and 3 pitching prospects and/or JJ and filler isn’t enough for Braun or Upton, the deal shouldn’t be made.

Absolutely

Maybe… but that wasn’t the question. If its a straight-up, one-for-one deal, would you do it?

Why would filler matter?

Seriously? And since Upton and Braun are safer, and let’s face it, even good pitching prospects probably don’t have more than a 50% success rate, why would the Brewers or D-Backs consider it? Especially since other teams will happily offer more.

If we overvalue all of our guys and make no trades, we end up with more of Melky.

Because those filler guys sometimes end up as legit major leaguers, see Martin Prado for example. Also, I think Teheran has been so good we’re actually starting to undervalue our other pitching prospects. Delgado would probably be the top pitching prospect in at least half of other teams systems.

In a heartbeat.

The DBacks would probably file a grievance against Frank Wren for that offer, though.

Yes

1 for 1 yes

Getting Upton would be pretty cool, in my opinion. It just depends on how much we have to give up.

MBL1 - November 16, 2010 reply

That’s the grand question. How much is too much?

Here's my guess as what it would cost:

Teheran
2 of Jurrjens/Minor/Vizcaino/Delgado
Dunn or EOF
Bethancourt

Too much, mvhs

In my opinion, anyway. But I do think that it’s going to take Freeman.

I think Towers is going to focus solely on pitching if he makes a trade.

I wouldn’t do the trade either.

They won't want Freeman

because they have a kid in AAA who’s similar in Brandon Allen (hat tip – Cavebird)

I didn’t know that.

Allen could play the outfield if they really, really wanted Freeman.

But yeah, they won’t have much interest in Freeman. And as I said above, I think Towers wants to totally retool that pitching staff.

See offer #2 of mine below

JJ and either Minor/Beachy are already proven commodities or young and MLB ready…toss in Delgado who’s projected as a #2 starter. If they want to re-tool their staff, that’s the offer we should make. Maybe toss in either Venters or Kimbrel because they need a closer pretty badly as well.

Hopefully Venters, because his arm might fall off after the workload he saw in 2010…LOL

They'll want Teheran in any deal they make.

Well, the upside to that is that we’re the only team with Teheran.

-C

It's only an upside if

FW decides to include him in the offer, especially knowing Boston is in the mix now with their depth of pitching in the high minors.

Boston doesn't have Teheran.

So they pose no threat.

-C

lol

I meant in any deal with the Braves.

O noes...

This changes everthing.

-C

Don't get sassy with me.

-S

Sorry,

I forget my place sometimes.

-C

No way I do this trade

That’s steep, considering we’re trading away the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball, in this scenario.

Well....

Hell-boy begs to differ, as I am sure will all the major prospect lists which will have Hellickson above Teheran.

but only just above

Just sayin’

Kawakami, Jurrjens, Beachy, Vizcaino, Schafer, Cody Johnson, Dunn, and Marek.

This is a joke, right?

Kawakami is negative, Dunn and Marek have minimal trade value, Cody has none, Schafer has little to none, Beachy lacks upside, Vizcaino is recovering from an injury and Jurrjens just isn’t anywhere near enough by himself.

Yes, it is...

but Kenshin is more than good enough to start there. Jurrjens would be their #1. Beachy would be on their staff in the pen or rotation. Dunn and Marek give them two immediate bullpen contributors, while Viz, Schafer, and CJ give lottery tickets. It’s quantity for quality, and no, it won’t work. But Upton isn’t getting dealt either as evidence by his ability, his contract, and Tower’s past demands for players. Upton’s value is so high a team would have to get their roster AND farm for him.

If quantity for quality does not work...

…which I agree it doesn’t, why do you keep suggesting it for all of the quality players?

Jurrjens is quality...

Randall Delgado is quality.
Brandon Beachy is quality.
Mike Dunn is quality.

Towers is Mormon

A pitcher of Lemonade, a bowl of pineapple jello, and some fresh-baked cookies: He’ll do anything.

Post your official guess for what it takes to get Upton

Freddie Freeman
Arodys Vizcaino
Mike Dunn

My guess

Either a combination of the following:

1 – JT, Minor/Beachy, Marek
2 – JJ, Delgado, Minor/Beachy

Teheran
Jurrjens
Vizcaino
Dunn
Bethancourt

Hudson's Soul Patch - November 16, 2010 reply

That’s…a lot.

MBL1 - November 16, 2010 reply

That's WAY too much!!!

Is not like Upton has had an MVP season yet

Well he asked what it would take...

and that’s what I would want if I was trading Upton.

I wouldn’t do the deal either.

I agree it would take something like that

Maybe not Viz since we are giving JT and JJ, but maybe another bullpen arm. Still a lot, and I would just no and hang up

It's a shit-ton, but

I’m sure they’re going to have to be blown away by an offer…such as this.

Same goes for Braun if we decide to pursue him.

That would be too much

Even if the D-Backs asked it, JJ and Teheran wouldn’t make sense. I think it would take one of them, but not both.

The only guys worth that in the NL are Heyward and Pujols.

I mean

Jurrjens is as good or better than the D-Backs ace right now. He immediately becomes their #1. Teheran would be their #1 prospect, and maybe the #1 pitching prospect in baseball right now as is.

Justin Upton is not going to require both. I know D-Backs fans may feel that way, but that is over-valuing Upton. This is not to say he is incredibly valuable, but seeing as the MLB market trend values young pitching as high as it does, this makes 0 sense.

I don’t think a trade is happening either, but to say it would take this much to get 1 Justin Upton is patently ridiculous.

mis-spoke there

not saying Upton isn’t incredibly valuable is what I meant to say.

I just don't see it happeing without Teheran, if at all

My guess:

Teheran: top of rotation potential
Minor: starts for them right now
Kimbrel: closes right now
Dunn: LOOGY right now
Pastornicky: solid future SS, scarce position

Kenshin Kawakami
Jair Jurrjens
Brandon Beachy
Arodys Vizcaino
Jordan Schafer
Cody Johnson
Mike Dunn
Stephen Marek

I doubt they would take that

Kawakami, for whatever unknown reason, didn’t get his chance this year making his contract look too much like an albatross (which it isn’t).

Jurrjens is quality and would make sense. As is Beachy and Vizcaino.

Schafer may never return, Cody Johnson seems unlikely to me to every make it to the show, Dunn is just a LOOGY, and Marek isn’t enough.

All in all, lots of quantity, but not enough quality, or that’s what I imagine Towers’ response would be.

Wow, you are making the same joke twice...

…but since you did, you can guess my answer already:

Not nearly enough. Kawakami is negative. And his negative negates what little value Dunn, Marek, Johnson and Schafer bring into the equation.

Accordingly, your proposal amounts to JJ, a pitcher with limited upside (Beachy) and a pitching prospect coming off an elbow injury. That won’t come close to cutting it—-adding a bunch of names doesn’t help.

See above, for my response...

but KK is not negative. He’s worth his salary as a starter, and with the DBacks, he’d start 20-30+ games. JJ becomes their #1. Beachy is a starter with upside. Dunn a potential closer, and Marek a quality relief arm. That’s 3 starters and 2 relievers right now for a team in desperate need of pitching. Johnson and Schafer are lottery tickets for their OF, and Vizcaino a lottery ticket for their staff. But poo poo my proposal if you like, it’s as possible as any other listed.

No, not really, because Towers would laugh at it.

Here’s the problem with your defense:

1. If KK was not negative to the D-Backs, they could have claimed him on waivers and had him for free. Hence, they consider him negative. Period.

2. Beachy, according to the scouts, has upside as a #4 or so. Not sure how much upside that is, since he probably has already reached it. There was an article on Fangraphs after his first start that is worth reading.

3. Dunn is a hard throwing lefty with control problems. Every relief pitcher is a potential closer—-all you have to do is give them the role and voila they are a closer. I don’t see him as a good closing option any time soon. Furthermore, relief pitchers don’t tend to have much trade value.

4. Marek may or may not be a quality relief arm. He is a relief prospect coming off one good year in the minors after multiple bad ones. Having not been in the majors yet, it is stretching it to say he is a quality relief arm.

5. Lottery tickets don’t add much value when trading for someone of Upton’s caliber.

In sum, this is just like your proposed offer to the Brewers for Braun (at least I think it was you, same MO definitely): throw a bunch of quantity instead of quality. You don’t get great players that way. No dice.

Because you don't think Delgado or Jurrjens is quality?

I say both are (Delgado in the Braun regard).

And “as possible” is because none are possible, he ain’t getting dealt. Since none of the proposed offers are happening, it’s “as possible” as any other.

really?

I’m a big supporter of KK, but that trade isn’t going to get looked at

If Medlen had never gotten injured… this offseason would be a lot more fun. To think, legitimate MLB-ready starters in the Braves organization:

Lowe
Hudson
Hanson
Jurrjens
Medlen
Minor
Beachy
Kawakami

with Teheran and Delgado both close to ready next year.

How much trade value does JJ really have at this point?

Last year, I think we would have gotten a great return on him. Not so sure now.

Considering his injury wasn't an arm/shoulder injury

It’s still high, IMO. He just had a bad hammy, and if anything, makes this upcoming season better for him because there wasn’t any wear-and-tear from last year’s grind. I really believe JJ has a ceiling of #2. On some teams, he would be a legitimate #1. Severely underrated.

Get'em Wren

Trade anybody but Teheran, Delgado, Venters and Kimbrel. My deal would be JJ, Beachy , Dunn and Betancourt.

deewill23 - November 16, 2010 reply

It could get done with those four, but the last three shouldn’t be untouchable.

Kimbrel should be untouchable, not Venters.

Teheran is untouchable, but not Delgado or Vizcaino.

This.

JJ, Beachy, Dunn and Betancourt...

…wouldn’t be enough. That is throwing quantity, not quality at them. Someone else will throw quality, and if they deal him at all, that’s what they’ll take. Encouraging Wren to insult them with an offer to kill any chance of a trade isn’t the best idea is it?

Marlins about to sign John Buck

3 years, more than $15 million. Yikes.

Not terrible

Considering his offensive production last year, but then again, he’d played in Toronto where everyone can rake. There aren’t a great deal of good catchers in the league that can hit like that so I guess that figured they had to get him. $5 million is steep, but then again, if he can hit .280+ again with 20+ dingers, it’s a solid deal.

No, it’s terrible. He has a .301 career OBP. Look how much Ross is getting paid next year, and he’s better offensively and probably defensively too. An absolutely awful signing.

My thoughts as well, Ben.

We also robbed Ross blind. You can’t really compare his contract to other backup catchers, it’s just not fair.

LOLMarlins

they’re so helpless.

It is sad.

Add the money they are giving to Buck for no reason to the offer they made to Uggla and they could at least keep Uggla.

They had to overpay

Just to get him to come. No FA really wants to go to the Fish, other than for the money.

Well they are buying on last season

They don’t have anyone else, and they cant afford Martinez. They had to pay more to get their guy. It’s tough to bring in FA to the Marlins.

reply fail

Anyone have ice? Cause I got burned...

That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck.

by FuquaManuel on Nov 16, 2010 1:25 PM MST

LMAO

Somebody step on your Johnson, bub?

IT'S NEW SIGNATURE TIME!

DAMN

I just changed mine, and I could have had that jewel

bighop - November 16, 2010 reply

So, so wrong

you rock

MBL1 - November 16, 2010 via mobile reply

Aww shucks...thanks!

Where did this come from??

I’d like to see exactly how insufferable you are, schmuck!!

-C

No shit

bpk228480 - November 16, 2010 reply

So what should/would we offer?

The Dbacks have some young arms already there. I think a deal centered around Venters and Delgado might get it done

Venters
Delgado
JJ
Marek
Betancourt

Justin Upton and Jason Heyward?…in the OF?….together? LOL this must be fantasy baseball right? I’ve stated I would give up Teheran for a handful of players, and Justin Upton would be one of them. But is this really going to happen?

No, not really.

But it is great rosterbation material.

yea

for upton

i just don’t see the braves giving up 3 SP prospects. if you’re saying no teheran, i’ve seen people proposing: Minor Delgado Vizcaino.

i think wren was just posturing by saying how he didn’t like to trade young pitching… but if he didn’t like to trade young pitching then he would HATE to make that deal.

and the sad thing is that upton probably requires that package. for this reason, i don’t see the deal happening. i think minor and delgado/vizcaino or delgado and vizcaino would be more palatable for the braves but i can’t see them trading all 3.

I agree

We can deal 2 starting pitching prospects at most really. 2 of Delgado/Minor/Beachy/Viz, and then maybe JJ and some bullpen arms. Mike Dunn could be their closer RIGHT NOW. But i doubt they take that simply because they’d want JT above all else

Dunn still has control issues...

…and the D-Backs will sign a real closer on the cheap—-there are a ton of free agent closers and not many closer jobs available. Yes, Dunn could be their closer right now, but I think I could, too. And I top out at about 60 mph.

Dback Fans are wanting JT AND Freeman

And that’s just a starting point. They are overvaluing him. There’s just no way.

That's a bit silly...

…but we do that here too sometimes. Freeman is superfluous to them and we need him. I could see Teheran + Vizcaino maybe.

not both

Spin it around

Heyward has 5 more years of team control I think (granted, at a much lower price). Would you be happy with JJ/Minor/Bethancourt for Heyward?

sexbobomb - November 16, 2010 reply

Nope

He means too much to the team to even be considered in a trade.

Heyward is better than Upton, so no.

By the way

According to MLBTR, the Yankees also just got involved. Not that I think they have the prospects to make the deal.

Montero and the three B's...

…but where does Montero play in the NL? Of course, if they offered Hughes in the deal, they could be players.

I seriously doubt that

Yankees need pitching, I doubt they trade it away (Hughes). And as you said, where the hell would Montero play?

The Yankees have no chance

The Yankees have no chance of landing Upton, They have no prospects or young players. The only deal they could make would be
1. Gardner
2. Hughes-Who is untouchable but would get the deal done.
3. Chamberlain
4. Montero

Now Atlanta could easily make the deal with this Package, as Arizona needs Arms in the Bullpen.

1. Jair Jurrjens-3 years of team control, in the 2011 rotation with Hudson, Saunders, to be nice young #1,#2,#3.
2. Randall Delgado- will be in the big leagues in 2012
3. Mike Dunn- in the BP in 2011 has closer type stuff
4. Steven Marek- in the BP in 2011
5. Cory Gearrin- in the BP in 2011
6. Christian Bethancourt- Top catching prospect 3 years away

mauck98 - November 16, 2010 reply

What if Stephen Drew was more attainable?

What would we give up for him?

Probably something like Beachy, Vizzy and Pastornicky.

Honestly?

I know you live in AZ and are on the ground with what fans there think, but the young pitching market is crazy scarce right now. Even if Beachy doesn’t have upside and Vizzy is injured, young pitching arms are considered platinup products these days. Which is why your Upton proposal was also quite crazy.

sorry if it was posted

# The Marlins and Braves are talking about a deal that would send Uggla to Atlanta for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

MLBTR

There’s no way that’s all there is to it, there has to be a starting pitching prospect involved in the deal.

Lennox - November 16, 2010 reply

For 1 yr of Uggla, we give up 1 yr of Infante and 5 or 6 of Dunn, sounds fair to me

bighop - November 16, 2010 reply

so guys i did some digging

Upton’s home/away splits concern me a bit.