SB Nation - Login for mobile commenting

Talking Chop

Braves 2010 Season In Review: Jason Heyward

Watching Jason Heyward run the basepaths is a thing of beauty. He's also a pretty decent hitter.

Mike Zarrilli - Getty Images

Watching Jason Heyward run the basepaths is a thing of beauty. He's also a pretty decent hitter.

Since slipping to the Braves with the 14th pick in the 2007 draft, great things have been expected from Jason Heyward. He was next in line to take the reigns from Chipper Jones as the marquee superstar in Atlanta. He had been compared to Henry Aaron by Bobby Cox, a man who's been around baseball for nearly fifty years. He was honored with countless awards following his stellar minor league performance in 2009 and was named the number-1 prospect in baseball by multiple writers around the country. For goodness sakes, Jason Heyward had a fence constructed in spring training because he hit the ball so far in batting practice. But with all of the endless praise and legendary stories from Spring Training, one enormous question remained: could Jason Heyward possibly live up to all of the hype? To put it simply, J-Hey didn't disappoint in his rookie season.

Now we'll certainly look at his historic offensive season as a 20-year old, but let's not forget why Jason Heyward was so highly regarded by scouts across the country: his five-tool approach to the game. How could you not love his defense? Throughout the 2010 season, it seemed like Heyward was a one-man highlight reel in right field. Affectionately described as an "over-sized gazelle" by one scout, it seemed like Jason was on every ball hit to the right-center field gap and it was nearly impossible to hit a ball over his head. Not only did Jason pass the eye-test, but his lofty advanced-stat numbers look great as well. With a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of 4.8 and UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games) rating of 6.6, it's safe to say J-Hey is already one of the better defensive right fielders in the game.

Another aspect of Heyward's 2010 rookie season that impressed so many fans, scouts, players and coaches around the league was his base running. Jon Heyman tweeted it perfectly, "Jason Heyward is a great, great baserunner." And isn't that the truth? Whether it was hustling out of the box to turn a single into a double, seamlessly going from 1st to 3rd on a base hit to the outfield or advancing into scoring position on a fly ball, J-Hey showed everyone how athletic he truly was on the basepaths. Combine this with him being second on the Braves in stolen bases (11) and you can see why he was so successful in 2010.

Finally, his hitting. Here's the impressive stat line from our 21-year old:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010 - Jason Heyward 142 520 83 144 29 5 18 72 91 128 11 6 .277 .393 .456


Wanna know something really scary? These numbers, especially his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all would've been much, much higher if it wasn't for a month-long slump caused by a busted thumb. It was Jason's own fault for not telling any of the athletic trainers and trying to play through the injury, but it's worth mentioning. Injuries aside, when you still see an OPS of .849 from a guy who's just 24 months removed from being a teenager, you know you have a special player. Despite falling just short of .400, Heyward's on-base percentage was nearly historic. In Major League history, only twelve players have had an OBP of .400 in their 20-year old season. Eleven of them are in the Hall of Fame, and the twelfth is Alex Rodriguez. That's pretty incredible. Combine this with his three game-winning hits in 2010, 52 extra-base hits and afore mentioned fantastic base running, and the Atlanta Braves have themselves a superstar in the making.

Now it wasn't always easy for Jason and he certainly had his struggles this past season. He battled nagging injuries and spent three weeks on the disabled list with a thumb injury in June and July. Some might forget, but it actually caused Heyward to miss the All-Star Game after being voted a starter. 

Even with the frustrations fans felt at times with Heyward, it's still impossible to ignore the incredible stats. Besides the month of June when he was injured, the lowest OPS J-Hey posted in any month was .802. Despite it being his first season facing Major League pitching and despite him facing each team's top LOOGY nearly every night once the game got into the later innings, Heyward still posted a respectable .755 (hey look! it's a sign!) OPS against left-handed pitchers.  He mashed right-handed pitchers from Day One, and there was no other Brave I'd rather have at the plate if the game was on the line.

Jason Heyward didn't disappoint in 2010, and it's safe to conclude with this: a superstar has arrived in Atlanta, and there's not a better young player in the league to lead the Braves back to the promise land than the lanky kid from McDonough, Georgia.

0 recs  |  98 comments

Comments

I like Jason Heyward a lot.

But his last month did disappoint. And Buster Posey should win ROY, though it pains me (slightly) to say it.

It is a close call.

For ROY with both Posey and Jamie Garcia. And Heyward’s Sept/Oct wasn’t great by his standards, but he did post a .800 OPS in that “month.”

Latos

It’s really a shame Latos got those 2 extra outs in 2009, or he would have a real place in the ROTY discussion. He had a far better season than J. Garcia.

I don’t really understand this sentiment, although I see it a lot. Posey put up 3.9 WAR this season, Heyward 5.0. Everyone talks about Posey’s value as a backstop, but forgets the extra 35+ games Heyward played. Those have value too. Not to mention that 1/4 of Posey’s already-shorter season he played 1B, the easiest position on the defensive spectrum.

Let's please stick with "superstar in the making"

rather than “a superstar has arrived” – shall we?

I mean, he very obviously has great tools, remarkable upside, and we all hope and have some good reasons to expect he will have a ridiculously awesome career, but let’s not have a complete and utter hyperbolic explosion here.

5.0 WAR

Star player.

I’d set that lower. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-value-batting.shtml

For position players in MLB, only 28 had higher WAR than Heyward in 2010. McCann was one of them, by the way (4.7). I forget that he’s only 26 sometimes. McCann and Heyward together for 4 – 5 years at high levels of performance could be glorious.

+Freeman

Wait and see. I think Heyward can be relied on to blossom. McCann is already there. Freeman? I’d like to see him for a bit more, though signs sure are encouraging. If so, then, yeah, that’s a nucleus.

Agreed.

I like his chances, but he still has to show it at the MLB level. And combined with all the young pitching talent, yes, that would be one hell of a nucleus.

i was using fangraphs WAR

the numbers are pretty close, though

The only question with Jason is should the Braves move him to CF. It might be easier to find a power hitter (or 2 hitters to platoon) to play RF than it would be to find a CF that can play defense and hit as well as Jason can.

Per the link you posted to ESPN

Actually only 5 players have topped .400 OBP in the age 20 season. Heyward is now seventh on the list, just ahead of Mickey Mantle. And he is only below five people because, quite disgustingly, Mel Ott has two seasons on the list because he had a .397 OBP as a 19-year old.

A WAR of 4.4 at a salary of $400,000? Priceless.

He’s so young that sticking huge expectations on him is really unfair. He’s awesome now in so many ways, but the OBP (at this age!) is just remarkable. The OP really nailed the significance of that. This age with this OBP is something really, really special, and it is an excellent predictor. The slugging will only get better, too.

I was torn at the start of the year about bringing him up right away, thinking it may have been better to play some roster games to keep him from hitting arbitration sooner. Without Heyward on the roster for the first couple of months, I don’t think we make the playoffs — it would have cost a couple of games, for sure. It was definitely the right call to bring him up right away. Barring injury or alien abduction, he’ll end up as a super 2 anyway and hit arbitration faster than normal. His contract will end up being a nightmare no matter what. Since there’s no way to prevent it, just enjoy it for now.

Unless he gets a long-term deal, he could hit the market at 27. He’s probably worth $12 – $15 million a year now as a 21 year old (4.4 WAR, 3.5 – 4.0 MM per WAR). If he continues to develop reasonably well and stays healthy, it’s almost scary to think about the kind of numbers he could put up and what he could earn. I’m not sure that anyone is going to be able to afford him. Crawford and Werth are looking at likely $15 – $20 MM a year now. Heyward is going to be better, if it all shakes out well.

I’d say give him a 10-yr, $130 deal in a couple years. Lock him up for lifetime.

No way...

would he agree to a $13M/year deal.

And 10 years should be far from a “lifetime” for him too. He’d only be 30-31.

This. He’d be an idiot to take that kind of deal. Nothing suggests that he’s an idiot. Longoria was dumb, but that doesn’t mean Heyward is.

Another thing — look at the arbitration deals for Lincecum and Prince Fielder. Heyward is going to be a super 2, and he has a full year of MLB service time. He has no incentive to sign a long-term deal unless he gets boatloads of guaranteed money or a more market value or some of both. $13 MM strikes me as completely inadequate.

I don't think Longoria was necessarily dumb

Because we obviously have no idea what his family’s life is like, and for all we know, his family might really have needed the piece of mind that a guaranteed $18M over six years would have given them. Granted, in hindsight the contract looks absolutely foolish for Longoria, since he’s pretty much on the elite superstar level at this point, but it really did protect his wallet for six years in the event that there were any major injuries or performance dropoffs that would have really dinged him in arbitration in later years. The team likes it because for one, they have completely projectable income out of Longoria, and at this point, they know they’re getting a gigantic bang for the buck. Regardless, he still hits FA at 27, and, barring any injuries, will likely make up for lost time on the market with his next deal.

I agree with your below assessment that the home town discount is more or less a pipe dream in this day and age, but for a guy like Heyward who has had some injuries and growing pains, the piece of mind factor still could be in play, and accepting a deal that buys out his arb years could feasibly ensure that he’ll be making money no matter what happens to him or his performance.

I think you can still get a hometown discount...

But your offer has to be in the same league as market value. IOW, there are limits to what kind of discount a player is willing to take.

I'll admit I'm a little jaded

And I was pretty surprised when Mauer took the hometown discount, considering how much the Yankees probably would have dumped out to get him to prepare for the post-Posada days.

I like the idea of the hometown discount, but that’s the old school, loyalty thinking in mind, but I err on the side of pessimism in that regard. I just personally feel that such loyalty and homerism isn’t around, until a player’s on the down swing and trying to coerce money out of home (Thanks, Clemens, Pettitte). Regardless, I’d be ecstatic if Heyward considered a reasonable deal, and if the Braves are playing their cards right, they’ve been taking notes of how Minnesota has been treating Joe Mauer to want to make the hometown kid stay home.

There is speculaton...

That the Rangers will get some type of hometown discount for Cliff Lee, because he really likes playing there. I also think the Yankees can be somewhat polarizing, in that some are more equipped for the spotlight than others. In any case, it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

In regards to Lee

I’ve been calling him things like “assassin” – so quiet, but so deadly, and “Jaws” – you know he’s coming, but there’s nothing you can do to stop him, and it’s hard to not be in simply awe of what he’s doing this October, on top of his postseason last year, too.

But I don’t think Lee’s going to give anyone a discount, and is going to seek absolutely nothing but top dollar, from whomever pays it. Absolutely no knock on Lee, but I got the impression after almost falling out of baseball in 2007, before his renaissance in 2008, he’s come to the realization that he needs to make as much money as he can before he starts to go downhill. That 4/$15M he signed in Cleveland back in 2006 was cute, but here is a guy that is going to be looking for a much bigger deal going into his year-31 season in 2011, and considering his quiet, humble, and mostly indifferent outlook, or so it appears to the media, I don’t think he’s going to care where it comes from.

agreed

i can find the link if anyone really wanted to see it…but they asked a scout if they thought lee would take a hometown discount bc he likes texas, and the scout said that cliff lee would “play in siberia if it meant more money”..
he has also said in the past that he will go wherever he feels he is getting paid what he deserves…

He could take less to play for Tex v NY

Texas doesn’t have state income tax, and NYC has a city tax on top of their state tax, he could easily take 5-7% less from Texas and still come out ahead.

But is that a "discount"...

although I agree that he should (and probably will) take into account taxes and cost of living to determine who is truly higher.

Lee

is about one thing and one thing only, $$$…. He’s already started looking at houses in C.C.‘s neighborhood. He’s going to NYY

He did say in a couple years....

It’s not unheard of, especially buying out arbitration years. Even at his current pace, he probably won’t win a $13MM arbitration case…..it’s possible, but not likely, and even then, he might give a hometown discount, especially for peace of mind, knowing you have a 10 year contract.

Do I think it’s likely?? Probably not. But it would be worth the offer, if he puts up another couple years like this.

Just beat me, but see above re Fielder and Lincecum. Google their arbitration info. By the time JH hits arbitration, he’s going to make more.

“Hometown discount” is a fairy tale. There’s no Santa Claus, either.

I am sure we will approach him about a long deal.

Possibly as early as this off-season. There is give and take in those things. While we probably (okay almost certainly) won’t get a deal as nice as the Longoria deal, we can get a discount. The principle is simple: Heyward gets the security of knowing that he is set for life even if he suffers a career ending injury next year and we get a discount.

he is a beast.

plain and simple.

My recollection...

…of Heyward’s injury isn’t that he didn’t tell the training staff ala Schafer. I recall the team knowing about it when it first happened in May. At the time it was so bad and Heyward was still on fire. Then he aggravated it near the end of May, start of June and that put him in a tailspin. He missed a game or two at that time, so the training staff obviously knew about it then. I think the main reason we didn’t DL him at the time was that we didn’t have enough OF’s healthy to do so—-we did DL him once Diaz came back.

GO Rangers!!

Anybody else want to strangle that little Yankee punk with the sideways cap that was taunting Nelson Cruz on the fan interference home run?

yes!

that perfectly sums up my thoughts on how all yankees fans act. fans like those are the ones i wish players were allowed to go after. he wouldnt be so big and bad if he was standing toe to toe with cruz

Can’t wait to see Giants/Rangers in the Series, ESPN and all of the other media outlets can suck it for jumping on the Phillies bandwagon.

There’s gonna be poetic justice for Molina when the Rangers beat the Giants to win the whole thing. Buster Who?

you mean this guy?

yes.

What a douche!

What’s funny was another douche cost them a potential out later, down the 3rd base line, though that wasn’t interference.

that would be the one. ugh.

I'm pretty sure that guy

is Vanilla Ice’s cousin. So I’m not sure what he has to run his mouth about.

How about the big, fat dude behind him mount F… you, F… you, as though anyone has ever effed him in his fat effing life. Or his quadruple-chinned buddy in the front row on the left. Yankees fans might be more repulsive than Phillies fans, if only as a result of their insufferable sense of entitlement.

This Heyward Kid

is pretty good eh?

I honestly could care less if he wins ROY. I love the fact that we have so many star players who fly under the radar (Jurrjens,Hanson, McCann, now Heyward).

2011 is going to be fun

Yeah, Posey probably did have a better overall season this year, but I’d still rather have Heyward going forward.

Tough call. Catcher is such a premium position defensively. Given McCann, though, yes.

you mean

an Ankiel/McLouth/Blanco/Diaz/Melky/Hinske outfield is bad? No way.

Don’t poormouth McClouth. I think he’s going to be better next year. His BABIP was ridiculously bad and unsustainably low this year.

Hitting weak infield bouncers is a surefire way to keep your BABIP low, and say what you want about McLouth, but he was the undisputed master of the infield bouncer this year.

Melky

might argue that one

And he'd win.

48.7% groundball rate, 9.4% infield hit ratio for Melky.

Nate hit a grounder 40.4% of the time and had an infield hit ratio of 6.8%.

MELKY CHOP reigns supreme.

-C

I forgot how bad Melky was in that department. I’m so glad to have him gone that his performance is already fading from my memory.

man oh man

I wish i could forget so quickly… so happy he’s gone, and can’t wait for the memories of him to be too

The Braves have always seemed pretty adept at drafting catchers.

*couldn’t care less

I could care less.

I want him to win, even though I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.

Flying under the radar?

I don’t think finishing in the top 2 or 3 in ROY voting is flying under the radar. You couldn’t turn on MLBN or ESPN this season without seeing a JHey highlight…

false

espn didn’t show him a whole lot..but u r right about MLBN

according to a DOB tweet yesterday

JHey shot an ESPN commercial with two anchors (yesterday)

They talked about him constantly on ESPN

Every single baseball fan knows who this guy is.

Al Leiter's brother doesn't.

Or at least the drunken dipshit who tried to talk smack and claim he was Al Leiter’s brother.

I mustve missed something

Because I’m not even close to knowing what you’re referring to.

Heyward almost seems a little TOO patient sometimes.

I remember many times this season when we desperately needed a hit and Heyward took a walk. That’s really what has made Chipper so great for us for so many years, he always seems to know when to just get on base and when he needs to put the ball in play. No doubt Heyward will get there, but that’s pretty much the only negative for him I could think of for this season.

maybe Heyward should be hitting leadoff due to this. OBP machines are great leadoff hitters.

Better too much OBP than not enough, especially at his age.

And more importantly, it’s almost always better to take a walk (100% chance of extending the inning) than to put the ball in play and make outs 65-70% of the time. It’s not Jason’s fault if his teammates didn’t come through much of the time after his walks.

This.

Basically, see this: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

Then the conclusion is obvious. Show your work.

Certainly not saying it’s a bad thing to take walks, but it just seems like Chipper knows when a hit is needed and makes it happen, while still maintaining a high OBP. Obviously it’s a lot to ask of JHey to be Chipper in his first season, but that ability to just keep working a pitcher until he throws you something to hit is certainly a quality you want in your best player.

You mean a player can just get a hit whenever they want to??

Players like Chipper, Pujols, Jeter? Sure. When their team needs a hit, they raise their game.

That doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed hit…also, I didn’t think “clutchness” had ever been proven…

it's a myth.

That’s what I thought. I definitely remember reading articles about how it was a myth a few years ago. I didn’t know if it had changed.

Maybe,...

but it’s opposite certainly isn’t (see Teixiera).

Wouldn't he get a hit 100% of the time if he could whenever he wanted?
You gotta save em for key moments

Sorta like when you’re on your last breath mint at a taco stand.

Nice recap.

There’s not much else to say about J-Hey except that he was probably our best all-around everyday player this year, playing most of the season at age 20. With good health, he’s going to make a buch of All-Star teams at the very least.

Heyward hit .277/.393/.456 this year with 18 HR so I think its reasonable to see him (with a healthy season) hitting somewhere around .290/.410/.500 with 25 HR.

I know everyone is making a big deal about finding a power hitter for the middle of the order, and rightly so, but I think he currently mans RF for the Braves. Fredi moved Hanley from leadoff to the three spot so I don’t see Fredi having a problem moving Jason from the two spot to cleanup.

They mean another power hitter. Heyward counts, though he should never bat second again. Next year he should be 1st, 3rd, or hopefully 5th.

Position and Role

I think that if you combine his defense with offense….you can argue that he is pretty close to a superstar right now. However, I think it would be a mistake to start on him as “the guy” in the lineup. I think he needs two more years to grow into that role. (Though I think he could move into the #3 slot next year if needed). I also think it needs to be noted that as the year went on and everyone started getting hurt (Jones and then Prado) or started slumping (Glaus, Gonazalez, McClouth)…there became very few offensive weapons in the line up. With Heyward becoming one of the only weapons available I would think that the number of good pitches he had to sit, also went down. If he is able to hit in front of a healthy Chipper and a legit #4 he will probably have more to swing at.

We have all seen him play RF. Given our woes in CF….I have to beg the question….could he play CF? He runs well…and seems to get better the more he gets his stride going…so he may be able to cover more ground then I think. I do think that his jump may not be fast enough for CF though but he gets good reads..?

That being said…I wouldn’t have wanted to do that in his rookie year…but if next year we still have a black hole in CF…could he make the move?

Sign Werth

Then let them duke it out for who plays center and who plays right.

Werth's number in CF are really bad...

plus I don’t want him given how much he is going to cost.

Actually, his career UZR and UZR/150 are positive in CF. The only way you could think he’s bad there is if you lend too much credence to his UZR/150 numbers from the last two years, which are extrapolated to illogical extremes due to limited playing time there; that misinterpretation would be the reader’s fault, though, not Werth’s. Plus he’s played it before, so he has familiarity going for him, whereas Heyward would be starting from scratch.

Newsflash: that big bat we want is going to be expensive, either in terms of contract or in terms of prospect cost on the trade market. Signing Werth may be expensive, but he’s the best possible fit short of someone in the Kemp/Adam Jones/Rasmus mold, who are highly unlikely to be dealt. He plugs a defensive hole in center where indications are he will hover near league average defensively with a chance to be slightly better, he provides right handed pop in the middle of the order, and he makes McLouth at least a semi-useful piece as a platoon partner with Diaz, which is important because we’re unlikely to find a taker for him.

I agree...that the Bat we need isn't going to be cheap...

but have you looked at Werth’s injury history? I think that because of the weak free agent market…he is going to really ride the wave. I will go back and look at the numbers…but I had always thought that he was below average in CF…..Amazing thing is that he came up as a catcher for Toronto.

the bat wont be cheap

so you know as long as chippers contract is on the books i dont see us pursuing anyone with such a big name. why would we go after that bat now when we got glaus last year. we’ll get some veterans and see if we can spark some fire (see aubrey huff). but we’re not spending on anyone crawford werth kemp or any of that.

Why? Because we’re also not investing in 10M worth of closer/setup arms this year since Venters and Kimbrel have set teh world on fire. That plus the money saved from trading KK, if we pull that off, would be enough to buy Werth. The combined contracts of Glaus (who made somewhere between 3-4M after incentives) should be enough to cover raises to the arb guys, cuz no one’s due for a big time arb raise yet, and reducing Diaz’s salary to bring him back would be enough to pay Young to step into the 4th OF role and Freeman at first. That’s why.

Of Glaus and Melky

also

because where we needed to fill a power-hitting hole last year was at 1B, but only for a year as to not block Freeman. You’re a lot more likely to sign a cheaper reclamation project than a superstar for only a year. And as J-Freak stated, we spent a bunch on closer/setup, which we wont have to do this year.

That being said, I don’t think we will actually go after one of them, nor be able to hang around in the bidding war very long if we did. On the other hand, I do believe Wren might be able to pull something out of his sleeve trade-wise for a young solid OFer (we certainly have the pitching prospects to pull off a big deal)

With Jurrjens knee and the relative inexperience of Minor and Beachy, I think Wren might find a cheap veteran OF FA and wait for July to trade. By July we could be looking at a tremendous logjam at starting pitcher, Hudson, Hanson, Lowe, Jurrjens, Minor, Beachy and Teheran, with Medlen not far off. After 2011 we would be free of McLouth’s $7.75M contract and buyout and possibly Chipper’s $13M contract. Then we get the other OF spot filled. Makes sense to me to trade in July for a young OF with power, rather than pay for an older, long term FA in Dec.

Good season

Needs to be more consistent.

It seems like only yesterday.....

http://www.talkingchop.com/2007/6/7/112447/8414

http://www.talkingchop.com/2007/6/8/1002/91017

Velcro Vernacular, it you’re out there, please come back!

Beard, too

What the hell happened to him?

Secular cult in either Montana or Utah.
My favorite part of the write-up (albeit a typo)

“It wasn’t always always easy for Jason…” Seems to imply that for the most part, it was always easy for him. Hehe.

Haha…fixed it. Whoops.

if Jason

would stop staring at strike 3 i would be much happier… hopefully he will get a little more aggressive at the plate next season

Yeah, it seems like he’s always trusting the umps to make the right call instead of taking matters into his own hands.

Jason Heyward

had himself a season. Can you imagine the numbers this kid is going to put up when he hits the middle of his twenties and into his early thirties? If he remains healthy he’ll be an elite ballplayer for a very long time.
 
Also, no contributions from mastermike in this thread? WTF?!?

Jason Heyward is good at baseball.

You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Talking Chop to post a comment.