The second-to-last prospect list of the off-season is here. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus releases his top-11 Braves prospects for 2010. (Click here for the 2009 list)
Five-Star Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, OF
2. Julio Teheran, RHP
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
5. Randall Delgado, RHP
6. Christian Bethancourt, C
7. Mike Minor, LHP
8. Craig Kimbrell, RHP
9. Adam Milligan, OF
10. Robinson Lopez, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Cody Johnson, OFFour More:
12. J.J. Hoover, RHP
13. Zeke Spruill, RHP
14. Tyler Stovall, LHP
15. Mycal Jones, SS
WOW! Three five-star prospects! That's more than I've seen (though I'll have to check what he's given other teams), but Goldstein doesn't give the five stars to just anyone.
I love the inclusion of Robinson Lopez in the top-10, KG always surprises us with someone. About Lopez, KG says: "Yet another talented Latin arm, Lopez signed for just $110,000 in late 2008, but he looked to be worth far more than that in his pro debut."
His sleeper pick is Benino Pruneda. I keep waiting for Pruneda to bust out, maybe this will be the year.
0 recs | 103 comments
Goldstein is my favorite prospects writer.
PWHjort - January 21, 2010
same here, with KLaw in 2nd.
Scott Coleman - January 21, 2010 via mobile
our system is absolutely stacked
with quality young pitchers.
Scott Coleman - January 21, 2010 via mobile
Braves
need to load up on some talent in the positional players …..It is good to see MJones seeing some love though….
Hanson-Ace - January 21, 2010
Agreed… Although he’s a bit older coming from a junior college, he has impressed in his short pro career, i’m a big fan
HansonManCrush - January 21, 2010 via mobile
It never fails…reading the praise that is heaped on Heyward gives me goosebumps.
Awesome.
Smoltz's Beard - January 21, 2010
This is interesting...
We all pretty much know about how good Freeman is, but some have perhaps underestimated Teheran and Vizcaino’s talent, myself included.
This puts a new perspective on those two rather than Freeman for me.
Little Lady - January 21, 2010
If Teheran and Vizcaino
Are both 5 star prospects why isn’t Freeman? Almost every scout has Freeman ahead of both Teheran and Vizcaino, he’s the first guy that doesn’t.
Also I do love the inclusion of Robinson Lopez, I wish he would’ve included Otero though. I guarantee Otero will open some eye next season stateside.
Jay212033 - January 21, 2010 via mobile
I don’t know KG’s tendencies but maybe he values potential and upside more? Of course then you have to wonder why Cody Johnson isn’t higher if that’s the case although I actually agree with his current placement.
ajones2522 - January 21, 2010
I think he generally values upside higher
Freeman is a safer prospect than the two pitchers but doesn’t have the superstar upside. Of course that doesn’t mean he values upside only and I’d argue that having Cody Johnson at 11 does significantly value upside.
was385 - January 21, 2010
Well put
Couldn’t agree more
ajones2522 - January 21, 2010
PLEASE SOMEONE CUT AND PASTE
PLEASE CUT AND PASTE I WANNA READ ABOUT OUR STUD RIGHTIES PLEASE
fizzbot - January 21, 2010
No cutting and pasting of paid content. BP is worth subscribing to, though.
gondeee - January 21, 2010
Again, love the fact that Milligan, who is 5 months older than Johnson and only has half a season of games under his belt, gets more love than Johnson. Baffling.
cbwilk - January 21, 2010
Agreed.
I don’t get the lack of love or CJ. The power is tremendous, he’s shown the willingness to improve himself, and he’s still very young. Yes the strikeouts are too much, and his defense isn’t good, but there’s still enormous potential.
blindsided789 - January 21, 2010
rumor has it
that CJ is working his butt off this off-season to be more “selective” at the plate. if he could cut the SOs to 15% of his at-bats, he’s a 4*, easily. the power is amazing when he puts the ball in play.
apoxonbothyourhouses - January 21, 2010
you have a link?
GoBravesNY - January 21, 2010
no link
just word on the street. could be true, could be some dude at bravesjournal blowing smoke out of his arse.
apoxonbothyourhouses - January 21, 2010
okay, annoying but whatever. Chances are it’ll show up in some article in a month
GoBravesNY - January 21, 2010
if he cuts his strikeout rate down to 15% and keeps the tremendous power
I’d argue he’s a 5 star prospect even with the crappy defense.
was385 - January 21, 2010
If he cuts it to 15% he’s top in all of minor league baseball, but that’d be a 20+ percent drop so im not buying that number. If he can keep it at 29-30%, you’d already see a ton of improvement though
McCann's the Man - January 21, 2010
Oh no, believe me, I don't expect that to happen
I’ve definitely been one of Johnson’s bigger critics on this site, however if he can cut it down to between 25-30% and show that he can significantly improve his contact, his prospect status would still go way up.
was385 - January 21, 2010
If he cut the strikeouts to 25% he’d probably shut a lot of folks up, mainly because he’d hit 60 homers with that kind of contact.
cbwilk - January 21, 2010
He walked 67 times last year. If he could raise that to 75+, he’d have few problems finding a job in the majors, even if the K’s stayed the same.
FineHamAbounds - January 21, 2010
Keep in mind though that maintaining a K-rate from single-A to the major leagues is an incredibly tough task.
ajones2522 - January 21, 2010
+1
The problem isn’t solely that he has a high K rate. It’s more that he has a high K rate even in the low minors where pitchers aren’t all that polished. AA is the biggest jump for hitters in large part because that’s where you start to consistently see fairly polished breaking balls and that is the downfall of a lot of these strikeout-prone guys.
was385 - January 21, 2010
I will point out, again, that his K rate stayed the same from 08 to 09. It’s still too high, but it’s not like he got worse, and in addition to that remaining static, all his other numbers were much better.
cbwilk - January 21, 2010
we know he has the power, the walks are nice
but none of it matters if the strikeouts don’t come down. Right now, it’s pretty much the only thing that does matter for his prospect status. Of course, this is a conversation we’ve had many, many times.
was385 - January 21, 2010
That's great and all
But I don’t think you can point to a static K-rate from low-A to high-A and expect him to sustain that through the two most difficult jumps, A-AA and AAA-MLB.
ajones2522 - January 21, 2010
I guess we’ll see.
cbwilk - January 21, 2010
Spruill
I think he should at least be a 3 star prospect. Certainly ahead of Lopez at this point I would think.
blindsided789 - January 21, 2010
Jeez, who knew Vizcaino was this good when we made the trade.
nick9314 - January 21, 2010
nobody. Frank Wren is still a genius
GoBravesNY - January 21, 2010
+1
Zeus12888 - January 21, 2010
+1
MAD genius
bbxxj - January 21, 2010
In the newest issue of Baseball America they have him listed as the #3 prospect for the Yankees, behind their catchers Jesus Montero and Austin Romine. So while he was kind of a secret to most of us, me included, he was definitely going to get some love from the prospect folks. Still, yes, Frank Wren is awesome.
cbwilk - January 21, 2010
come on guys please?
fizzbot - January 21, 2010
I’m pretty sure that you can get in trouble for that.
Scott Coleman - January 21, 2010 via mobile
It’s like 4 bucks a month.
Smoltz's Beard - January 21, 2010
That’s like, $0.15 per day – or enough to feed 14 children instead.
justincredubil02 - January 21, 2010
The Rangers also have three 5-star prospects and the Rays have five!
Little Lady - January 21, 2010
I know it hurts to bring it up but we gave the Rangers one of those 5-star guys and we might have had another one on that list had Andrus not played in the majors last year.
ajones2522 - January 21, 2010
but
it could be argued that Freeman is a 5* and that, given time, Bethancourt and Delgado prove to be as well.
apoxonbothyourhouses - January 21, 2010
I don't know about Freeman and Bethancourt but...
I have a hard time ever seeing Delgado as a 5-star prospect. He’s a good prospect, but not amazingly good.
Little Lady - January 21, 2010
I’m gonna have to disagree here. Delgado played full season ball at 19 and put up a K/9 over 10 with good control. At 6’3" 165 there is a lot of projection too. It might be a couple years but I think he could definitely be a future 5-star prospect.
ajones2522 - January 21, 2010
+1
Delgado has become my 2nd favorite Braves prospect, and I really think he’s going to be outstanding this year.
blindsided789 - January 21, 2010
I guess I just wasn’t that impressed when I saw him pitch…
Little Lady - January 22, 2010
FIVE!? Who?
Zeus12888 - January 21, 2010
Rays 5 star prospects:
1. Desmond Jennings, CF
2. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
3. Wade Davis, RHP
4. Alex Colome, RHP
5. Matt Moore, LHP
Rangers 5 star prospects:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Neftali Feliz, RHP
2. Martin Perez, LHP
3. Justin Smoak, 1B
GoBravesNY - January 21, 2010
Didn’t know that Feliz still carried the “prospect” label.
Bronn - January 21, 2010
I didn’t either. That kind of jumped at me
GoBravesNY - January 21, 2010
Wow, that’s a lot of love for Colome and Moore. I’m not as familiar with Colome but I know Moore has electric stuff with worrisome control so I’m definitely surprised to see him with a 5 star rating. If he’s 5 stars then Delgado has to be 4 stars in my mind.
ajones2522 - January 21, 2010
That’s way too high on the Rays guys. I think Moore is the best of that bunch. Davis and Hellickson are great pitchers, but neither is going to be an ace. And Jennings is a very solid player, but he’ll probably end up just being a slightly above average outfielder.
And wow, didn’t realize Martin Perez was that good, glad I got his autograph this year.
cbwilk - January 21, 2010
If Feliz is still a prospect, then Schafer is too. Thats another 4 star.
braves99 - January 22, 2010
Feliz didn't accumulate enough innings last year to lose his prospect status...
Schafer got just enough at-bats for him to lose his. He had 167 AB. Feliz only had 31 IP.
Little Lady - January 22, 2010
Ugh, 18 fewer at bats and we could still consider him a prospect.
cbwilk - January 22, 2010
Bethancourt
At the end of this season he could very well be our #1 prospect. I know this is a bold statement but this kid has tremendous talent, he reminds me of Jesus Montero w/ plus-plus defensive potential. If you look at both Montero and Bethancourt numbers in Rookie ball they’re very similar so keep a close eye on this kid this upcoming season.
Jay212033 - January 21, 2010 via mobile
I'm going to disagree
for two reasons:
1) Freeman stays in the minors all of this season
2) I would still put Tehran and maybe Arodys in front of him
GoBravesNY - January 21, 2010
If Bethancourt
Follows in Montero’s steps he could very well jump those guys unless they have outstanding seasons. Since Bethancourt plays a premium position with plus defense and will be 18 y.o. the entire season in Low A I could see him easily jumping to the top spot with a great season.
Jay212033 - January 21, 2010 via mobile
Whether he jumps them or not, I agree with you, the kid is an outstanding prospect. He’s huge and is going to be a stud.
cbwilk - January 21, 2010
I know we have the “top 25” list on the side of the main page, but is it possible to get some sort of organizational depth chart of the prospects, based on their prospect ranking, not who is farther along in the system?
justincredubil02 - January 21, 2010
We could probably whip that up. It was there in all prospect rankings. I guess you’d have to see how Gondeee felt about having something like that on the main page.
cbwilk - January 21, 2010
Montero is considered to have Manny type hitting ability and just an average defensive catcher. I really don’t see Bethancourt with that kind of offense.
braves99 - January 22, 2010
Fixed.
Little Lady - January 22, 2010
+1
Only the most delusional of Yankees fans believe Montero isn’t destined to be a DH. He’s too big and too bad defensively.
was385 - January 22, 2010
Seriously, the guy has absolutely no flexibility or agility. He probably won’t even be able to play 1B. Bethancourt on the other hand is an outstanding defensive catcher, which already gives him a leg up over most prospects, since catching talent is always a premium.
cbwilk - January 22, 2010
He's really stocky.
It would be hard to expect much agility out of that body…
Little Lady - January 22, 2010
but
what a bat. He end up as a better pure hitter than Heyward.
was385 - January 22, 2010
Which will work well as a DH. Lucky that an AL team has him.
cbwilk - January 24, 2010
If you've read down this far...
…then you’ll be happy to know that the first of the prospect list Q&A’s will go up on Monday with Kevin Goldstein. So far two more are lined up after that, and I’m hoping to get a few more a little later.
gondeee - January 21, 2010
can you say who the other two are? or is it a surprise?
GoBravesNY - January 21, 2010
one of them is probably Sickels
He’s real good about doing these sort of interviews
was385 - January 21, 2010
Sickles doesn’t think all that highly of our system. Likes our top 3/4 prospects but thinks we have a lot of average to just above average arms and few position prospects. Thinks Julio is fragile, Vizcaino hasn’t shown enough, Cody is probably a AAAA type, and too many soft tossing, control type pitchers.
braves99 - January 22, 2010
and there's something to be said for that.
He’s certainly a guy who values polish and results more than someone like Goldstein but I don’t see anything wrong with that since that value extends to every team’s system. Our system has a ton of talent but a lot of it is very far away from the majors. It’s nice to see a guy who tempers some of the expectations for these 17 and 18 year old prospects sometimes.
And you know what? Julio has been fragile so far in his career, Vizcanio has only pitched 40 innings above rookie ball, and Cody is a longshot to be a major league impact player, so while Braves fans don’t want to hear this, they’re all legitimate concerns.
was385 - January 22, 2010
I’m not understanding how Julio is fragile. The kid had troubles his first season, then started out in Danville this year, where he probably should have been anyway, didn’t miss any starts and more pitched deep into ballgames. This is some knock on him that people gave him in 2008 and haven’t been intelligent enough to take back after he proved it wasn’t an issue.
cbwilk - January 22, 2010
I’d call it cautious, not unintelligent.
ajones2522 - January 22, 2010
but just because the problem didn't pop up last year...
doesn’t mean he isn’t over it. Rich Harden came near 200 innings one year, doesn’t mean he isn’t injury prone. Admittedly Teheran doesn’t have the same history, but I think people are focused on his slight frame and think it’ll be a problem.
Mr. Sanchez - January 22, 2010
Slight frame? The kid was 18! The difference in his frame from 08 to 09 was very evident and I’m sure it will be even more so this coming year. He’s growing. I just think this is something that people got in their head and refuse to let go of. I guess he’s going to have to go this whole year and make every start too. Even then there will still be some fool talking about how he’s injury prone cause he had tendonitis when he was 17.
cbwilk - January 22, 2010
With young pitchers I don’t think it’s a good idea to discount a previous injury after one healthy season. I’d want to see see a couple before I stop worrying about health completely. It sucks but young pitchers are fragile and that has to be taken into consideration.
ajones2522 - January 22, 2010
That's true...
And I’m sure that the team is being very careful with him, which unfortunately for Teheran is giving him that injury-prone stigma.
Little Lady - January 22, 2010
Just playin devil's advocate...
in essence I agree with you. Especially about him needing to stay healthy for this full season as well to quiet the “injury prone” talk. And I don’t care how old you are, 6’+ and around 150 is stick thin. Sure, he’ll grow but it’s still thin. I’ve got no clue what his throwing motion is, so that may be a part of it as well. Either way, Prior was a sturdy build and had supposedly perfect mechanics and we’ve seen how injuries derailed his career. So it’s all talk regardless.
Mr. Sanchez - January 22, 2010
Future of 3B
I’ll start off by saying I am a huge Chipper fan evidenced by the shrine to him in my house. I am a little concerned about the future of our 3B. I haven’t seen any top 25 prospects at that position in the last two years and the only internal possibility I keep coming up with is developing Hicks at 3B. I would love to see Longoria or Zimmerman as a future Brave, but I’m not sure we will invest in a type A player based on recent history.
BravesCPO - January 22, 2010
3B
The bright side of our 3b problem is that when Chipper decides to retire, Wren has $13 mil per year to find a replacement. I’m as worried about Escobar getting/accepting an extension as I am replacing Chipper.
bighop - January 22, 2010
I agree. However we have two decent specs in Hicks and Jones if Yunel doesn’t stick around. I also hope that FW has enough sense to fill Chipper’s shoes with equal or better talent with the $13M.
BravesCPO - January 22, 2010
Don't forget Edison Sanchez coming up from DSL ball..
as well as Hicks, or maybe even Escobar being able to play 3rd if we can find a SS to hit leadoff. Until we have to make that decision, let’s wait on having to decide what we need to do imo. You never know if Hicks improves his contact in AAA, or if Sanchez is the real deal, or if Mycal Jones can become a real player, or what have you. Right now, I think Chipper bounces back to form and has another 2-3+ years left in him.
Mr. Sanchez - January 22, 2010
I wish for nothing more...
than for Chipper to come back healthy and take us to the WS. Just looking a couple years down the road, which seems to be the situation around TC right now. Honestly forgot about Sanchez.
BravesCPO - January 22, 2010
Mr Sanchez
mentions Mr Sanchez, I’ve been trying to remember that name for weeks. Read about him here on TC, had never heard of him til then.
bighop - January 22, 2010
I don’t see why Escobar can’t be our future 3B…it seems to be easier to fill a hole at SS than one at the hot corner.
justincredubil02 - January 22, 2010
Do you think he's really got the run-producing skills to play there?
MichaelProcton - January 22, 2010
um, yeah...
did you see his production last year? He’d be fine, especially with say a developed Freeman and Heyward providing some more slugging. Add a speedy SS, and it could work wonders. I think people get too hung up on if a guy can slug enough for his position. You don’t have to have a 40 HR corner IF if you have a solid lineup and others who can produce elsewhere positionally.
Mr. Sanchez - January 22, 2010
This.
justincredubil02 - January 22, 2010
Jurrjens and Escobar
both reach arbitration next year, what are the chances of them accepting extensions? Is it Jurrjens that has the agent Wren said he would not deal with? Will he?
bighop - January 22, 2010
I thought JJ was a Boras guy. I think Yunel is the one with the taboo agent.
justincredubil02 - January 22, 2010
thanks
couldn’t remember which was which
bighop - January 22, 2010
In 2013
Baseball America is projecting Mycal Jones at 3B. Not against sliding Yunel but curious to his experience at the corner. If he could transition like Chipper I am totally down.
BravesCPO - January 22, 2010 via mobile
the 2013 lineup thing
for third base isn’t really anything to look to far into. It’s just that we have no third base prospects and he’s pretty much the next best thing. But generally if you have the tools to play short, you can probably be fine at third.
was385 - January 23, 2010
Good call. I think all it really says is they put Myke Jones ahead of Brandon Hicks right now. Since there are no obvious 3B prospects, they just took their top SS prospect and slid him over to fill out their roster.
cbwilk - January 24, 2010
Escobar has about 50 professional games at third…in a very SSS, his ML time there in ’07 was rated very poorly.
MichaelProcton - January 25, 2010
I like how Goldstein ranked Vizcaino as a 4* prospect with the Yankees two months ago
And now that he’s a Braves prospect, he’s a 5* guy. Now that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense now does it?
Travisio - January 23, 2010
He got a lot better in those two months where he wasn’t playing any games…
cbwilk - January 24, 2010
keep in mind
that he wasn’t exactly a big name prospect before the trade since he’s so young, but he’s been given a lot of attention since he was part of a pretty high-profile trade.
was385 - January 24, 2010
It sounds shady. The guy shot up in his mind by doing exactly nothing. 4th in the Yanks system to stud. FW is not a genius for getting a good prospect, 1 ok prospect & 1 scrub for Vaz.
FitzFan - January 25, 2010
I am glad at least someone else seems to have a high opinion of Robinson Lopez
Mr. Sanchez - January 25, 2010
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