If you had 9 or 10 more games to play in the season and you were trying to make the playoffs, who would you rather play? The Cardinals, Brewers, and Dodgers or the Nationals, Marlins, and the Nationals again? The Nationals, mind you, are the worst team in baseball! The Cardinals and Dodgers... are each leading their respective division and have two of the three best records in the National League.
I'm so hesitant to write anything about the Braves making the playoffs, or even having a chance to make the playoffs, but they really do. Yes, they're going to need some help from the Rockies, but if you figured out the questions above, you'll realize that while they've had a pretty easy schedule so far in September, they have a very rough schedule in the last week of the season, whereas the Braves have possibly the easiest schedule in all of baseball with 7 games against the worst team in baseball.
That worst team has played us hard, but we still hold a 7-wins to 4-loss advantage over them on the season series (and all we need to do is double that win total). So, my fellow Braves fans, there is a chance, oh yes, there is a chance. Who knows, as schizophrenic as this team has been this year, perhaps this week will be a good week. On the other hand...
0 recs | 76 comments
All good points
but I can’t help but think about how we struggled against the Padres and Reds in the most recent series with each. (1-5, I believe.) Those were two “easy” teams that we should have benefitted from playing. The Marlins series will be tough, but with two Nats sweeps or at least 5 of 6, we do have a good chance.
KoKo the Monkey (T-Bone) - September 25, 2009
why the hell do people keep bringing up the Reds series??
yes, they did lose to an inferior team, but its not like we’re the only team to lose to a lesser opponent. the Rockies are 4-5 against the Padres and DBacks this month, but no one seems to bring that up.
Scott Coleman - September 25, 2009 via mobile
If the Padres had swept the Rockies
I might be mentioning it.
The big problem is that we still have win 7 straight against an inferior team, when we’ve shown we can’t sweep inferior teams (except for the Mets).
Bronn - September 25, 2009
Yeah....
I say we just throw the white towel, give up, forfeit, don’t play those games, because we’ve already proven we can’t beat the Nationals. Oh, our record against them so far this season is 7-4? Oh, the Mets have a better record and we’ve just won 8 straight against them? Doesn’t matter, we lost 3 games to the Reds a month ago, so we’re garbage. We have shown we are literally incapable of sweeping the Washington Nationals, and to think otherwise is foolish.
sddbaker - September 25, 2009
Just trying not to get hopes up too much
It’s an extreme long shot, and we’ve failed to take care of business against the Nationals so far this season. Rockies have the Cards, a Brewers team that’s already shut down Gallardo, and a Dodgers team that will have nothing to play for on the last weekend.
Bronn - September 25, 2009
Dodgers and Cardinals could likely still be playing for homefield.
BraveSaluki - September 25, 2009
please
leave my hopes alone
adc62 - September 25, 2009
Because it wasn't just the Reds.
It was the Padres too, not to mention crappy teams throughout the year.
MichaelProcton - September 25, 2009
The point is....
we know we lost those games. Why keep beating a dead horse?
sddbaker - September 25, 2009
THIS.
God damn. Get over us losing to the Reds and Padres. Its not like someone bitching about it is going to change the outcome..
Scott Coleman - September 25, 2009
And ignoring it makes more sense?
This team should be leading the wildcard, not needing a total disaster in the last week of the year to have a chance.
MichaelProcton - September 26, 2009
Let's go Cards!!!!!!!!
Carpenter on the mound tonight.
blairblink - September 25, 2009
There is a real lesson to be learned here.
And, of course, although I would never ever want to be accused of undue horn tooting, I was so damn right, here, it is worth repeating as an object lesson in being a good fan:
fandave - September 25, 2009
This is undue horn tooting. And its poor undue horn tooting at that! It’s not like you had a revelation, you applied common logic. I think 75% of us thought the same, we just didn’t want to jinx the team. (At least I didn’t)
Mark Lempke - September 25, 2009
Oh come on....
Give the guy some props, don’t slam him. I said it wasn’t over either. If 75% of the posters on this board thought we were still in it at all points of this season, the place wouldn’t have been such a cesspool of gloom and doom and vulgar cussing out of the team.
sddbaker - September 25, 2009
those of us who frequent the game-threads were all pretty optimistic. it was the one-hit wonders of the Chop who were doing all the glooming and dooming in the fanposts and comments….generally speaking.
justincredubil02 - September 25, 2009
Dude: You really, truly should go read the thread from 9/7.
fandave - September 25, 2009
I just did…and saw only one post that said we were done…
justincredubil02 - September 25, 2009
You know, you’re probably right …generally speaking…on your point — the diehards on the game-threads are much moreso loyalists than the rank-and-file commenters.
fandave - September 25, 2009
congratulations
RichmondBraves - September 25, 2009
Thank you! Thank you all!
fandave - September 25, 2009
Woo!
The Keith Lockhart Era - September 25, 2009
Really? Blind optimism makes one a "good fan?"
MichaelProcton - September 25, 2009
I wouldn’t call that blind optimism. I think it was highly qualified.
VivaLosBravos - September 25, 2009
Well, technically, yes.
The word “fan” as used in this context, is a shortened version of the word “fanatic”. The definition of fanatic?
fa⋅nat⋅ic
/fəˈnætɪk/ Pronunciation [fuh-nat-ik]
–noun
1. a person with an extreme and uncritical enthusiasm or zeal, as in religion or politics.
So blind optimism does make you a good fan.
sddbaker - September 25, 2009
Should the Braves get the deficit down to 2 games with 4 or more games to play, then I might believe there’s a reason to hope. They haven’t gotten it under 3 in the second half to my memory.
redwards95 - September 25, 2009
wah, wah, wah
sddbaker - September 25, 2009
which, ironically is your confidence vote! I see what’s going on here….
justincredubil02 - September 25, 2009
At the very least
it’s nice to be relevant in late September again after a three year absence
Will Shelton - September 25, 2009
Amen
dragonhawk26 - September 25, 2009
sddbaker - September 25, 2009
Hey! A shot of NCChopper!!! Good stuffs.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - September 25, 2009
How did you know I was a brunette? ;-)
NCChopper - September 25, 2009
from those photos he took of you through your bathroom window…
justincredubil02 - September 25, 2009
good looking physique, you have there.
fandave - September 25, 2009
Here's how I'm looking at it
Carpenter and Wainright are the first two starters for the Cards and we have Vazquez and Hanson going for the first two of our series. If Both we and the Cards win those first two, we’ll only be 1.5 out and that is a little less depressing. Hey, it makes me feel better.
was385 - September 25, 2009
Just think about those 2 games that we should have won against the Rockies earlier in the year. (oooohhhhhhhhhh…….)
Chief Noc-A-Homa - September 25, 2009
How bout the meltdown against the Phills or the walk off loss in L.A or Hou? Either way, we have a chance to make all those “what if’s” a moot point.
bravos1984 - September 25, 2009
Wainwright
Finally Wainwright can do us some good.
Remember that one year JD Drew helped us get to the postseason, in exchange for all of Adam Wainwright’s affordable years?
Give us that 18-8 of Wainwright’s this year and we’d be even with the Phillies. Then maybe the money we gave to e.g. KK could have gone to Ibanez, and we’d be the ones in first place.
JimK - September 25, 2009
Yeah, because our starters have been terrible!
justincredubil02 - September 26, 2009
They certainly haven't been cheap.
MichaelProcton - September 26, 2009
If someone could exchange the "Natinals" jerseys and put a contender's on them, we just might sweep all 7 of 'em!
(just kidding – lighthearted comment about how we tend to play down to teams we should beat and end up losing while elevating our play to the strong teams and play them hard)
Seriously though, it’s exciting just to be having this conversation after the deflating losses to CIN.
Never say never and ….
NCChopper - September 25, 2009
I agree :)
HEYJUDE - September 25, 2009
As of right now, before any weekend play, I would say we have a 40-50% chance of making the play-offs. The Giants and Rockies started falling off the wagon, as I predicted. If the stars align correctly for us, it could happen. That would be awesome to finish the last 10 games 10-0, especially with the Fish coming up.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - September 25, 2009
"lol"
and the inclement weather continues to follow the Braves around. Looks to be a Wet Weekened in Washington.
Clear skies in Atlanta right now, but the Braves are returning soon, so…..
Chief Noc-A-Homa - September 25, 2009
Relax.
I’d call it about a 24% chance of us making it. Keep in mind that the Marlins and the Giants are right on our ass. None of that matter if we don’t win nearly EVERY day.
nick9314 - September 25, 2009
PECOTA
guesstimates 13.8%
VivaLosBravos - September 25, 2009
Exactly. Def not 40-50
nick9314 - September 26, 2009
unfortunately
We may be due for another, patented (at least this year anyways) Atlanta Braves letdown. This is the third or fourth time we’ve closed a considerable gap and gotten happy. Every other time the Braves have gone on a considerable losing streak only to bounce back again and raise hopes.
Braves definitely have a chance, and I’ll be rooting for them for sure. I wish it was flip-flopped and the Braves were the team ahead.
And it’s lame that we’re 12 games over .500 and we’re still 4 games back. Oh well, at least we’re not in the AL.
RichmondBraves - September 25, 2009
Braves must go 8-2 to have any chance.......they do that, and they are in!
JaeSlim - September 25, 2009
This doesn't make much sense
unless you are really that confident that the Rockies will go exactly 4-5
VivaLosBravos - September 25, 2009
Here’s to hoping we don’t lay a big fat turd this weekend…
justincredubil02 - September 25, 2009
Gondee
come on man please dont jinx us like this man lol. Too many times we faced bad teams and were expected to beat them and we ended up losin. Yes there is a chance but im not gonna get my hopes up i hope we can do it but its not gonna be easy. Nats are bad but they ALWAYS seem to play us hard for every out. Marlins are still in it as well and will be playin us hard as well like they usually do. Im certainly not sayin we dont have a chance but im gonna keep my fingers crossed. Hopefully we can stay hot. We might end up needin some magic from guys that have been so-so this year to get into the playoffs.
rockybull - September 25, 2009
Playoff Odds
If you check out coolstandings.com you would see that our odds are actually 12%. They take into account games remaining, opponents, etc. I’ve been watching it for a week now fluctuate between 3-5%, and last night it shot up to 12. Win a couple, and then lets talk.
joshmaurer - September 25, 2009
I wonder what their odds would have been for the Braves winning 12 out of the last 15 games.
fandave - September 25, 2009
odds & stats
are ok & have their place but there is the forgotten factor called the baseball gods who, with one swing of their omnipotent 36 oz bat can bring colossal end of season meltdowns (Mets) or fantastic win streaks (Rockies). Heres hoping the Braves are on their good side.
adc62 - September 25, 2009
yeah
The Braves are on a winning streak because of the GREAT BASEBALL GODS.
It’s definitely not strong pitching or anything
RichmondBraves - September 25, 2009
just pointing out
that baseball is a quirky game & strange things can happen despite what stats & odds say should happen. Not trying to take away from the fact that the Braves are playing excellent ball. Lighten up.
adc62 - September 25, 2009
The Cards and Dodgers are tough enough. I know the Brewers aren’t the best, but they have an offense that can create a lot of problems if they get going at the right time.
Braves have to essentially treat every remaining game as a playoff game. Go full throttle.
kalesi - September 25, 2009
Gallardo has been shut down for the season, so basically, they have no pitching
Swo12bv - September 25, 2009
Lets go Braves!!!!!!
I know these guys got it in em! step up guys and lead us back into October! One game at a time. Lets go Braves!
chippeforprez - September 25, 2009
I figure we have to go 6-1 against the Nats and win the series against the Fish. It seems like every time there’s a ray of hope we lay an egg.
mdhenshaw - September 25, 2009
If we go 8-2, Rockies have to stagger in at 4-5 for us to catch ’em and have a one game tie-breaker.
fandave - September 25, 2009
I am going to LMAO when Greg Norton or Kelly Johnson get a hit in our last game of the season that sends us into the playoffs….it will only be better if Garret Anderson is the one on base who scores the game-winner!
:)
justincredubil02 - September 25, 2009
& Manny Acosta
closes it out.
adc62 - September 25, 2009
lol…but, that is less realistic since we all know that Bobby won’t use him again this season!
:)
justincredubil02 - September 25, 2009
Bobby Cox believes in Norton and GA because they are vets and have come through before in clutch. And we know they will get the call and be in the position to come through again. That is just the way Bobby manages. Whether they can actually come through and deliver with the big hit in the big game and prove him right is the only question.
fandave - September 25, 2009
We need a little luck
But I’ll admit our schedule vs. the Rockies’ schedule gives reason for optimism. We need to almost win out at this point, but that’s not impossible, and I don’t think the Rockies will gain any ground playing the Dodgers and Cards.
FineHamAbounds - September 25, 2009
BP's playoff odds report
Standard report has us at 9.8%.
ELO adjusted (I don’t understand this, but it adjusts for how good a team is playing right now) has us at 14.5%.
PECOTA adjusted (adjusted based on the preseason projections): 13.7%
All of those are long shots, but give us a weekend sweep of the Nats and we’ll see how things go.
Bronn - September 25, 2009
This weekend is basically for all the marbles.
Go Bravos! Go Cards!
Chief Noc-A-Homa - September 25, 2009
Don't forget
Go Cubbies!!
Yakker - September 25, 2009
That’s not relevant any more, since the Cards’ magic number is 1. We just want the Cards to keep playing for this series, now.
Bronn - September 25, 2009
Actually, I was talking about the fact that the Cubs are facing the Giants. They’re (SF) not exactly out of contention yet.
Yakker - September 25, 2009
lets
DO WORK!!
Don Draper - September 25, 2009
Cautiously optimistic
I love the Braves, but this team has been pretty crazy this year. They sweet the Cards and then get swept by the Reds. They win 3 of 4 from the Dodgers but lose 2 of three to the Padres. Considering this trend. I am optimistic about the rest of the schedule but i do so cautiously because they do seem to get beat by some of the real bad teams in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost 3 games to the Nationals in the next 7 games with them.
BravesFanScout - September 25, 2009
We can do this
Go Braves!!
HEYJUDE - September 25, 2009
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