The AJC's Mark Bradley wrote a blog post today saying that "if the Braves fall out of contention, should they call up top prospects Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman." He says ordinarily the rule of thumb is "don't lose with seniors," which implies that the kids should be called up. But he seems to think they're not ready, stating that they're too young, not far enough removed from high school, and that they just simply don't need to be in the majors yet -- no real substantive reason is given. He just keeps saying they're not ready.
He says that "players will tell you when they're ready," but what part of hitting .422 for the better part of a month at double-A doesn't scream "I'm ready?" At some point this weekend Jason Heyward will reach his 100th at-bat at the double-A level. He will do so likely still hitting .400, still hitting for tremendous power, and still showing an advanced feel for baseball that has made him the top prospect in all of baseball. Did I mention that the Braves could use a hot power hitting outfielder.
The entire premise of Bradley's post is "if the Braves fall out of contention." Well, sometimes you use prosepects in trades, and sometimes you call them up to use them yourself. If a team doesn't have the confidence to call up a guy hitting .400 at double-A, then they'll never recall any prospect. And yes, even a 20-year old. Remember, the Braves had enough faith in Heyward and Freeman to push them to double-A at age 19, in the first place.
Heyward is ready. I don't know how you can say he's not ready. Do you want him to really prove it by continuing to hit .400 at double-A for the rest of the year? Move the guy up and see if he's up to the challenge of a higher level, he's obviously better than the talent at his current level. Move him up to the majors and see if he can handle it. The Braves have made no bones about calling up kids from double-A -- Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Davies. Some of these worked out, some didn't, but none of them were as good, or were hitting as good as Heyward is right now.
The other thing that Bradley overlooks is that these kids could help the Braves "not" fall out of contention. The Baby Braves did it in 2005, and you have to give the best prospect in all of baseball the chance to help the team in 2009. All the adjusted statistics will say that Heyward can handle the majors. I say give him the best birthday present this Sunday and call him up to the majors. He's ready.
0 recs | 178 comments
Now that would be badass. Call him up on his birthday!
rbratt3 - August 5, 2009
G-Braves
What’s the thinking on moving Heyward to AAA first? If he’s kicking ass at AA, isn’t the next logical step to try him at the next level before the Majors? I’m a pretty new baseball fan, so go easy on me.
KoKo the Monkey (T-Bone) - August 5, 2009
Theres no way Heyward sees AAA this year
If his phone starts ringing, caller ID says Atlanta
Sid Bream's Moustache - August 5, 2009
AAA...
Depends on the big club’s plan. If they don’t want to bring him up now, then Gwinnett makes sense to get him in a playoff chase. If you’re not going to call him up, Gwinnett seems like a good move to keep him getting at bats (and at bats in crucial situations).
Mr. Sanchez - August 5, 2009
From a Mets fan point of view, I'd love to see both of them called up ASAP.
The quicker they start gaining service time, the quicker they get pretty expensive. Wren made a good move keeping Hanson in the minors, he probably saved himself an extra season of arbitration. I think fans of most other division rivals would want to see them called up now, rather than have them developing in the minors.
Stephen Schmidt - August 5, 2009
sure you would
because you’re out of the playoff race.
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Thats not it at all.
Even if the Mets and Phillies swapped places, I don’t think I’d be upset if Heyward made his debut this fall. He’s tearing up AA, but it would be pretty unreasonable to expect him to immediately dominate at the ML level. In the future, sure, not this fall though. I thought the Orioles treatment of Wieters, the Rays with Price, and the Braves treatment of Hanson were all very well thought out. All of those moves were made with long term thoughts. Rushing their top guys to the majors may be great for the fans this year, but it probably is the wrong thing for the Braves long term.
Stephen Schmidt - August 5, 2009
I'm sure you thought the same when the Marlins called up Cabrera.
Service time is measured only when they’re actually in the majors, not from the day they get called up. We need a big hitter right now. We won’t need one as much for the first month or two of next season. What’s the difference?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
If the Mets and Phillies swapped places
the Mets would still miss the playoffs.
VivaLosBravos - August 6, 2009
If he wasn't baseball's #1 prospect and hitting .400
If he was hitting in the upper .200s to lower .300s, then possibly. But when he is simply dominating AA, AAA will not give him much more. I can understand your logic, as I used to always think that. But the gap between AA and AAA is not really great enough to give Heyward too much more of a challenge.
scottyboy10 - August 5, 2009
Those Baby Braves were called up a little bit earlier...
But the fact that he used Schafer and Devine (whose numbers, age, and experience didn’t imply they weren’t ready) for his argument is silly.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
This conversation started earlier over in the last post about Heyward
I raised the concerns that there are plenty of high end prospects who were called up too early and it hurt their development. Will that happen with Heyward? Maybe, maybe not. I just think that it is a legitimate concern that needs to be raised.
I am not saying that I am against bringing up Heyward. I am saying that it might not be as good of an idea as everyone seems to think…. and it could be a disaster.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Exactly.
There’s a lot more downside to bringing him up now. Not worth the risk for his long-term development.
blairblink - August 5, 2009
What’s the risk? If he doesn’t hit well then…. he goes back down to AA or AAA then goes to the Arizona Fall League and spring training and is ready for opening day next season.
redwards95 - August 5, 2009
Disaster meaning?
Just curious what this nightmare is you’re seeing.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Not seeing a nightmare
Just saying that some highly touted prospects who were brought up too early turned out to be a disaster. As I pointed out before, Delmon Young and Jeff Francoeur are good examples of that.
Let me pre-empt you by saying that I know they aren’t exactly like Heyward. They hit differently, have different strengths and weaknesses. I get it. Just saying that there are some pretty disastrous examples out there of players brought up too early.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Basically
your worried about it affecting him mentally.
drumzalicious - August 5, 2009
Pretty much
As I said before, I am no expert on his mental state, or any player’s mental state and how that promotion affects them. There are positive and negative examples. He could wind up very successful like Andruw Jones or Justin Upton, the latter of which may be a good comparable, and the results aren’t really conclusive yet.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
I have a new signature that covers my opinion on this matter:)
Rhyno18 - August 5, 2009
I hope that's sarcasm.
A journeyman showing slap double power in AAA is not exactly the answer, me thinks.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
i hope so as well
I just hope they dont call up Barton or Gorecki before Heyward
drumzalicious - August 5, 2009
Yes its sarcasm, but if either of you had actually met the pimp that is Reid Gorecki, you too would be clamoring for his promotion to the ATL
Rhyno18 - August 5, 2009
He could do some damage in a big league town.
cbwilk - August 5, 2009
Shawn Kemp like?
royhobbs - August 5, 2009
Well, Gorecki isn’t mentally challenged like Kemp, so I’m pretty sure condoms are part of the plan.
cbwilk - August 5, 2009
Brian Barton is not good.
At all.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Is the risk worth the potential reward? Even with a guy this advanced in his approach, there’s still a chance you are rushing him too quickly and you will hurt his development. Hopefully we’ve learned from Davies, Francoeur, Saltalamacchia (to an extent), and now Schafer, that the potential of destroying them or hindering their development is too great to push a kid.
Jason Heyward is a HUGE piece of the puzzle going forward and if you screw that up, you don’t just set him back but the entire franchise back a couple years. After him, there are no more premium position players in the minors. Freeman is nice and it’s always good to see a 19 year old with that average and OBP, but he’s going to have to show more power before he’s a well above average first baseman…
Michael Scarn, FBI - August 5, 2009
None of those kids were anywhere near as ready as Heyward is right now.
Look at their plate discipline. Further, how would he be “screwed up” any more by a poor month or so in the majors than by spinning his wheels while he hits .400 in AA?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
True, and with Schafer, who is to say his development is really hindered. He is probably out this year with a wrist injury, but it’s not like he’s done for good. I can’t really speak for Saltalamacchia because I haven’t watched enough with the Rangers, and Francoeur ALWAYS had his plate discipline issues. I don’t think bringing him up ruined him.
eaheckman10 - August 5, 2009
Really? None of them?
Jarrod Saltalamacchia walked 55 times and struck out 71 times in 92 AA games the year before he was called up. The next year, he walked 13 times and struck out 17 times while putting up a .309/.404/.617 line in 22 games (81 AB’s) before getting called up. His MLB line so far is .254/.316/.394…not great…
Kyle Davies shot up the Braves minor league system before getting called up at age 21, getting hit around, then spending the next couple years bouncing between AAA and the bigs.
How about a recent comparison? Justin Upton put up a .309/.399/.556 line in 71 AA games at age 19 including 37 walks and 51 K’s. He then went on to hit .221/.283/.364 in Arizona after his callup around this time two years ago and was subsequently sent back down to AAA the following year. It hasn’t bothered him all that much as he’s always angrily destroying baseball’s whenever he’s in the batters box, but the Diamondbacks wasted time against the arbitration clock by having him play at a well below replacement level in RF for 2 months.
Can we just wait for the sample size to get a little bit bigger to make sure he is ready before we call him up to save our outfield in the middle of a playoff race?
Michael Scarn, FBI - August 5, 2009
This...
is pretty much exactly what I was saying.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
We have a winner.
Yakker - August 5, 2009
I couldnt agree more
Zeus12888 - August 5, 2009
Green
TradeAndruw - August 5, 2009
Never happened before…I’m truly flattered that you would bestow this great honor upon my random comment.
My life is now complete and I will celebrate by leaving work early to go home and watch today’s game live and on television…
Michael Scarn, FBI - August 5, 2009
Also good points
But I believe that Heyward has more in common with the MVP Level prospect comps (Griffey/A Rod / Pujols) then with “really good” prospects. The 3 comps I used all got AB’s in the bigs very young, and it obviously did not do them long term damage.
Sid Bream's Moustache - August 5, 2009
Except Heyward is on pace for a line of 60 walks and 36 K’s over the course of 100 games. Salty and Upton are nowhere near that K/BB ratio. His OBP is .500 and he’s got a .321 ISO along with a .531 wOBA, all much much higher than both Upton and Salty even if he regresses somewhat. My only concern is the outrageous .437 BABIP which implies he’s bound to cool off
McCann's the Man - August 5, 2009
Wow, that BABIP is something to pay attention to.
I’m new to all of this, but this article is interesting on the topic.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/
I wonder how much he’s just getting lucky right now.
godawgs - August 6, 2009
Here's where I see a difference...
A. Heyward’s BB:K ratio is not just good, it’s above 1.0 at AA in over 100 PAs! Further, I’m struck with the notion that this organization would not be willing to watch Heyward OPS at 650 for two months. I understand the Super Two issue, but I’m also struck with the notion that the offense needs his potential boost more right now than it will during the month or two months earlier we’d call him up next year. We’re on the verge of falling out of this race. That won’t be the case in March/April/May of next year.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
well
FYF = Plate Discipline issues from day one.
Schafer = Was crushing until he hurt his wrist that first week.
Salty = I dont know to much about lol
drumzalicious - August 5, 2009
One thing is for dang sure
In my opinion, we are on constant Heyward call up watch anytime the Braves have a homestand from here until the end of the season.
Now that trade deadline rosterbation is over, Heyward-Watch is officially underway.
Sid Bream's Moustache - August 5, 2009
Not until you're out of it.
I think you have to wait until the team is out of the playoff hunt. Coming to the bigs is enough pressure. Not to mention that he is very young. I think the added pressure that would come with the Braves in the race coupled with the tremendous amount of hype already surrounding him would be a lot to overcome.
Wait until are games aren’t important and then let him get a taste of major league pitching.
Fischerking - August 5, 2009
are=our
Fischerking - August 5, 2009
THAT is a move that would be stupid.
At that point, all you’re doing is burning some of his free service time. The only reason he should be called up this year is if he has a chance to help this team win games. If not, there is no sense in it.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
I have to disagree
First, does calling him up in September (when rosters expand) go against his service time? If I remember correctly it does not, but I could be wrong.
Second, I can’t see how “relying” on a prospect to carry you into the playoffs would be good for any prospect, no matter how good they’ve been in the minors. Sure some have had success (Franky Rodriguez rings a bell) but it’s far more likely they will struggle than not.
scstrato - August 5, 2009
Miguel Cabrera.
And where did I use the word “rely?” Also, the above poster didn’t say wait ‘till September. He said wait until we’re out of the race, which without Heyward could concievably happen very quickly.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
You are right
you did not use the word “rely” per se, but your statements:
andcertainly implies it.
And though the OP didn’t say “wait til september” it is easy to deduce that we would have to endure a major meltdown in order to be statistically eliminated before september. Yes it is possible but not likely.
C’mon. I’m sure you can name several players who were called up late in the year and had success in helping their team get to the playoffs while on the other hand I can name 4 for everyone you list who didn’t. The fact is none of those cases applies here because each player is different. My point is not you, nor John Sickels, nor Steve Philips, nor anybody else can say beyond a shadow of a doubt how JH will do when called up no matter when it is. All i’m saying is that more often than not the prospect struggles and by adding in the pressure of a late season pennant race you are decreasing his chances of success.
scstrato - August 6, 2009
Unlike Francoeur, Heyward has all the skills that you’d want from a major leaguer. The only reason not to call him up is the financial stuff, but the Braves aren’t (yet) such a small payroll team that they are forced to make moves based on arbitration clocks. With Church unable to play, there’s no reason not to call up Heyward and give him a shot. If he struggles, then you send him back down. It’s not the end of the world. Prospects get called up, struggle, get sent down, and return later and excel all the time. And what if he doesn’t struggle? Then he could be better than any player the Braves could reasonably have acquired at the deadline. The team could sure use another good power, good OBP bat.
redwards95 - August 5, 2009
The Braves aren't forced to make moves based on Super Two...
But it was one of the strongest contributing factors that kept Hanson down so long this year while we suffered through Reyes and Parr and Medlen. Church should be in the lineup tonight. I do agree that sending him back down if he struggles is not that big a deal.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Call him up on his birthday?
Would that start his arbitration clock or is that only if he plays before June?
pancanbra - August 5, 2009
The "clock" doesn't actually count from a date.
It’s about service time. If he’s not up in the majors, he’s not accumulating service.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
As I understand it
If he’s in the top 17% in accumulated service among players with between 2 and 3 years of ML service, he qualifies as a super two.
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
And that figure is about time actually spent in the majors, not from the debut on.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
It is plainly obvious from hearing what is said about Heyward from anyone who has spent significant time around him that his mental makeup, personality, and maturity are more than sufficient. I see no reason to continue to keep him in the minors. I sincerely doubt that he is going to develop any further than he already has until he is given the opportunity to play at the ML level and I don’t believe he is so fragile that it will damage him in some way if he does encounter some adversity, rather it will only serve to make him stronger and better than he already is.
Mountngrown - August 5, 2009
I think the only hessitation that I have is if he is mentally ready for the adjustments he’ll have to make after a few weeks in the big show. Does the organization and the people making the decisions think he can handle struggling and being strong enough mentally to push through and make adjustments, something that our former right-fielder could not do. Being 20 years old he might not yet have the mental makepup, but again, if he does then why not. Physically he seems ready and AA is offering him nothing in terms of competition.
jwrocks - August 5, 2009
Didn’t we call Frenchy up on his birthday? Maybe I am just mis-remembering (thank you, Roger Clemens for that “word”).
justincredubil02 - August 5, 2009
Unless the Braves were playing the Cubs in January...
sdp - August 5, 2009
then I misremembered. Who was it that we did call up on their B-day?
justincredubil02 - August 5, 2009
I think it was Saltalamacchia, but it could have been the day before/after
penno - August 5, 2009
Yes.
His debut came on his birthday.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
frenchy was called up mid season not in january
Swo12bv - August 5, 2009
intelligence fail
Swo12bv - August 5, 2009
For some reason I get the feeling the Braves will wait until September to call him up. A September call up won’t affect his arbitration years and, whether you believe it or not, the Braves are seriously concerned with him becoming a free agent early. If he produces like he probably can once he gets called up, I think Wren does everything he can to get Heyward signed to an Evan Longoria type deal.
KC Ryan - August 5, 2009
Dear Pujols,
Please make this happen. I will never do anything bad again. In Albert’s name, Amen.
justincredubil02 - August 5, 2009
I don’t see any reason to put off calling Heyward up any longer. At the rate the Braves are going, they’re looking at .500 and third place; Heyward might shake them up enough to win a few more ballgames. Call Freeman up in September and see what he can do.
John Holton - August 5, 2009
I think he’s probably physically ready, but perhaps mental maturity might be a concern. Now, before I get angry rebuttals, I know I’ve read everywhere that he’s got a great head on his shoulders. But maybe there’s a comfort zone issue with being in the minors rather than producing in the majors, and the FO has seen something to that effect.
But that’s more of me talking out of my ass. The real reason probably has something to do with super 2 status, yada yada yada.
soup du jour - August 5, 2009
No, thank you.
Both of these guys are still only 19 years old. We don’t want to rush them or anything. Remember what happened to Cameron Maybin when the Tigers rushed him up to the majors? They just might have ruined him. I say we re-sign LaRoche to a one-year deal, and give Heyward a chance in Spring Training to win the right field job.
JurrjensFan - August 5, 2009
just another example of a toolsy guy with no baseball skills. Does not apply to Heyward.
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Also, as far as the mental aspect of the game and work ethic are concerned, Heyward and Maybin couldn’t be more opposite.
cbwilk - August 5, 2009
Another major reason I think he this would not hurt him
Heyward – Humble, student of game
Maybin / Francouer – Not so much
Sid Bream's Moustache - August 5, 2009
When Frenchy starting bitching about being sent to AA last year…ugh…that was the last straw.
award6 - August 5, 2009
Maybin is one of the laziest players I’ve ever seen. And I watched Victor Diaz for three years in Norfolk.
cbwilk - August 5, 2009
Who’s to say that LaRoche will accept a one year deal from us and not take more money/more years from someone else?
Gage23 - August 5, 2009
history?…most players don’t turn down more money and more years in baseball
Swo12bv - August 5, 2009
That’s my point. I doubt we can sign him for just one year.
Gage23 - August 5, 2009
Yes, they might have ruined Maybin...
except he OPSed 890 in AAA. And you’re crazy if you think LaRoche is going to sign for a one-year deal when he’s the best 1B on the market.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
I don’t see the prob. why not call him up,unless he has some type of Grienke mental problems it wouldn’t hurt him, if he does well give him a contract, if not send him back down. Look at many of our young men in uniform who have been in combat before turning 20 and are doing OK, I think we underestimate players under what? 22?21? We need some more power hitting and Heyward and Freeman could certainly help. BRING THEM UP.
jimmontg - August 5, 2009
AA vs AAA
I posted this the other day on a previous post …but my point remains…..
I have a question…and I really don’t mean this as a leading question…but a legit question: What is the differene between AA and AAA pitching?
I was always under the impression that within the last 10 years the best pitching prospects are often in AA and that the stuff you see in AA is as good, if not better, then what you see in AAA. That being said…if you can hit a really good AA fastball you can probably hit a MLB fastball and you would not benefit from seeing any more fastballs in AAA.
However, I was always under the impression that you saw more veteran pitchers in AAA. More pitchers that have learned a thing or two about pitching…have had time in the majors….but lack the pure stuff to be an MLB regular. What that means to me is that you will see guys who throw more change ups…more sliders…more curves…and may be able to throw their mediocre fastball with more accuracy then the 21 year old in AA.
That being said…wouldn’t Heyward benefit from seeing at least SOME time in AAA? I would think that right now he is seeing, reacting, and killing the ball. I would rather see him get some ABs against more veteran "crafty" type pitchers and see how he fairs. I have a feeling that with pitching at the A and AA level it is not so much about scouting and identifying the weakness of the hitter, as it is developing your pitcher and having him execute on his strengths. Therefore with someone like JH’s talent…are we going to see the holes in his swing yet? I would argue no…he is simply that good of a hitter that a fastball and questionable offspeed pitch at AA is going to be esay. The thing that would show the holes-location…changing of speeds…breaking stuff away etc he really hasn’t seen yet. However, he will at least get a taste of that at AAA.
So my response would be NO-He may not be done with his MiLeague "seasoning yet." I fear that the risk of him coming to ATL straight from AA is greater then the reward. I don’t have a problem with him getting to ATL at the end of this year-but if that is the plan move him to AAA now and let him get 75-100 ABs at AAA THEN make the call
calbers - August 5, 2009
Good point calbers, I can see that some time spent in AAA would be well spent,but, we need him now and the person who should make the decision should be Heyward’s minor league coach,if he says he’s ready, bring him up.
jimmontg - August 5, 2009
The Cost
Ok…do we REALLY think that Heyward called up NOW is going to help us make the post season? I think he may do ok when called but…but I don’t think he is going to put us over the top. Therefore what is the gain from putting him up now?
1) He comes up early and ends up becoming arbitration a year earlier …that could cost the Braves 4-8 million in that extra year. That is a lot of money for 100 ABs.
2) Again…I just dont think that we really know what his weaknesses are yet. He hasn’t been put to a point where he is challenged. Lets let him hit some wrinkles in AAA. Give him a free pass on off days to the clubhouse to get to know the team…but wait until Sept. I would like to see him in Gwinnett NOW for at least a couple of weeks before coming up in Sept.
calbers - August 5, 2009
Exactly
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Yes, I do think he will.
With the way Diaz and Church have produced, I don’t see why the idea of Heyward contributing to an improved offense (the weakest part of our team) with power (the weakest part of our offense) should be totally dismissed. And, again, if he’s not a difference-maker, you just keep him down in AAA a month longer next year. Finally, what if there’s no “challenge” in AAA? Do we have to whack him in the knee in his sleep to make sure he can handle it?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
I would rather take the risk
of him having too little of a challenge in AAA than be totally overwhelmed in the ML, hurting the ML team and possibly hurting his development as a player.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
And if Diaz and Church OPS 720 the rest of the way and we miss the playoffs by a handful of games while he continues to have an OBP over 400 in the minors?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Send him to AAA now
See how he does. If he continues to OPS over 1.000, give him the MLB job in September.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
By which point it might be too late to make a difference.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
good points
drumzalicious - August 5, 2009
ESPN
Just put up an article on the frontpage of the MLB site about Heyward. It’s by Olney, but it is a good read. Insider required:
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4378304&name=olney_buster
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
wish I had Insider.
Fischerking - August 5, 2009
Does he suggest a call up?
esadb - August 5, 2009 via mobile
Doesn't say either way
This is ver telling though:
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
when Darryl Strawberry and a long time ago are in the same sentence….makes me feel old.
Sparhawk - August 5, 2009
lol, same here
Rhyno18 - August 5, 2009
Remember when the Dodgers had the Dream OF before the 1992 season?
Straw, Eric Davis, and whoever else…then Davis and Straw flamed out.
buzzdeadwax - August 5, 2009
LOL...
Brett Butler.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Hmm
Anyone look at Justin Upton?
He is similar in a lot of ways to Heyward. He got called up, wasn’t to hot. then re started the next season in AAA. came back up and played better.
All im saying is Heyward IMO should go to AAA first. If he is still destroying AAA then great call him up.
As someone else pointed out. A lot of the guys in AAA are guys who are more “polished” from experiences in the majors even if they are journeymen. I think he could do with some experience of “getting pitched to” before he comes up to the majors.
I dont think he would stink it up if he got called up now. However, i wouldnt mind him having all the preparation he can
drumzalicious - August 5, 2009
See my post above…
Michael Scarn, FBI - August 5, 2009
I did
you did the in depth explanation that i didnt feel like typing lol. good job
drumzalicious - August 5, 2009
Who's to say those struggles in the majors didn't drive Upton?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
arbitration
Is probably a major issue. From what I’ve heard, if we wait until next June we’ll delay his arbitration clock a year, which I am in favor of.
RichmondBraves - August 5, 2009
All this hype scares me
And from everything that is being said about him, it shouldn’t. He isn’t just a toolsy outfielder, but has the mental makeup necessary to go with the talent to be a great player.
Maybe it’s just me, but it seems that Heyward has gone from a player that most people understood was young, had a really high ceiling, and didn’t mind having him wade through the minors for a year or so, to someone destoying AA and is as polished as he’s ever going to be.
Sid Bream’s Moustache convinced me in his article that Heyward is ready for a call-up to the Majors. Heyward seemingly has no holes in his swing and plate approach and isn’t gaining anything in the minors but more plate appearences. Yes, his power isn’t fully developed, but that won’t be stunted if he gets a call-up, it’s just a matter of age and putting the muscle on his frame.
If he were to get a call-up today, I think OBP would be his major contribution to the team. Outside of Braves’ fans (and maybe a few Braves’ fans), the fact that he won’t have all of his potential power yet, might seem to be an indicator that he’s not living up to the #1 prospect hype, if he were to be called up. He’s not going to be an all-star right out of the gates, but regardless of whether or not he gets called up, he already has the mental makeup to be a major league player and will continue to develop his power in the minors or the majors.
The only conceivable issue I can see for leaving him in the minors is keeping him under control for longer/money. And even then, I’m not completely sure about the rules of pre-arb and arbitration control as far as call-ups. (Sorry for any grammatical mistakes/rambling…my excuse is I’m sick today)
award6 - August 5, 2009
I disagree with a couple of premises here
First, the money issue is a BIG issue. It would cost the Braves organization millions of dollars. For a mid-market team, that is a big deal.
The second premise is that he “seemingly has no holes in his swing and plate approach and isn’t gaining anything in the minors but more plate appearences.” I know that the jump from AA to the Majors can be done and all, but that doesn’t mean that AA pitching equates to ML pitching at all. There could very well be holes in his swing/approach that haven’t been exploited yet because he hasn’t seen competition tough enough to exploit it.
Remember when Francoeur took that 3 day stint in AA? (Sorry to bring up bad memories). Remember how he mashed in AA? Its because AA pitching doesn’t create polished baseball players.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
So then where does he go to get the necessary exposure to the polished pitching he will see in the Major Leagues?
Mountngrown - August 5, 2009
AAA
Pretty simple. AAA may expose some flaws that AA pitching isn’t developed enough to expose. He will face a few guys who have pitched in the bigs, and guys who will pitch in the bigs. But he won’t be in the majors.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
So you think hitting against the John Halamas of the world and their 88 MPH fastballs will really challenge him?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
no
But facing Michael bowden, Phil Humber, Carlos Carrasco, etc. couldn’t hurt.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
If facing AAA's best couldn't hurt,
what’s wrong with ML?
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Got it.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Because
He doesn’t get service time towards his Arb status in AAA. He wouldn’t be facing the likes of Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum in AAA either. The media coverage is different. I mean, do I really need to go into all the differences between high minor league ball and the major leagues?
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Nor would he do so in staying at AAA for a month longer next season if the arbitration clock is so important.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
But why not just stick him in AAA for a month now
and forego the risky experiment?
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Because he can help the big club NOW.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
If the Braves can't hold on for a month
Heyward is not going to help anyway.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
If they can hold on for a month...
Then they didn’t need him in the first place. So why call him up at all?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
agreed
Why at all?
But in all seriousness, if he is ready he is and the team is still only a couple of games behind heading into September and a bat like him could put them over the top, sure, bring him up. But I am not eager for him to rack up service time if the Braves don’t have a chance anyways or if they can do it without him.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
The arb argument is totally legit
But I didn’t think that’s what we were talking about.
But guys like Lincecum transitioned seamlessly from the minors to pro ball. Do you really think he’s a significantly better pitcher now than in 2007?
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
The argument is both
They are both legit concerns I brought up earlier.
and Yes, Lincecum has developed in the majors…because he was ready. Is Heyward ready? Probably, but I would rather try him out in AAA first because of the above (and below) mentioned reasons.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Actually...yes it could
Because in addition to his 88 MPH fastball…Halama will throw a fading change up and a backdoor slide that will sit on the outside of the plate. He is the EXACT type of person that I want him to see. Guys who are in AAA to get batters out…not to work on their own stuff.
In AA the pitchers are there to pitch their game…to work on the things that they need to work. To work on location…to work on changing speeds etc. They are not really there to get the batter out as the pure end. John Halama in AAA is there to ONLY get batters out. I think you are more likely to see the holes in his swing against a 35 yr old Halama then you are against a 21 yr old prospect in AA.
calbers - August 5, 2009
well said...
but there’s some on here who believe Heyward is a lock to hit .300+ with a great BB/K ratio right off the bat, and won’t relent their opinion isn’t a certainty.
Mr. Sanchez - August 5, 2009
Short Term vs Long Term
I think the reality is that for the short term….100ABs or so he will probably hit .300 with a decent BB/K ratio. However, for those first 100ABs the scouts will be creating their book on him and he will see alot of fastballs. At that point he will start to see a pitch assortment that is based on his swing and his “book.” THAT is when he will need to adjust….and to be honest…he has never had to adjust before because he has naturally been that good of a hitter.
So for the rest of ’09 he will probably produce fairly good numbers. However, he could easily reinforce bad habits that will be exploited by May of next year. I would rather him figure out his bad habits in AAA.
The downside is much greater then the upside of him being up there before Sept.
calbers - August 5, 2009
REALLY?
“He’s never had to adjust before?” He’s been getting fastballs grooved down the middle his whole life?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
again, the difference between minors and majors
He doesn’t have scouts watching for every tiny hole in his swing, he has never had to adjust to pitchers with intricate knowledge of exactly how to get him out.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
So AA pitchers aren't trying to get hitters out?
Funny, I thought that was the object of the game. Silly me, I guess.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Of course they are
but they are often working on specific issues they have, like getting better command of their breaking pitches. Thus getting guys out isn’t their only focus, and they will often forego making the pitch that they should make for a pitch that they are working on, etc.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
I agree that money is certainly an issue. But the risk is mitigated by possible gains that bringing up a player can contribute. More revenue would be made by making the playoffs on 2009 then we would lose by having Heywards Arb clock turned forward. Is Heyward the difference between making the playoffs and not? Who knows, but there is more to this issue then just risk.
And Jeff Francouer is not a valid example. First of all, those were 3 games he put that line up. In his 2005 AA Season, he posted a line of .275/.322/.487. Outside of his decent slugging that outright mediocre. Heyward’s line is .422/505/.722.
You make some good points Andy, but in my opinion the possible benefits outweigh the risks.
Sid Bream's Moustache - August 5, 2009
Just throwing Frenchy out there
as an example to show that AA doesn’t build polished MLers. And it has been seen time and time again. Justin Upton to Frenchy. There is value in AAA. In this case where the money is an issue and Heyward’s youth, why rush and take the risk of stunting HIS development, and thus hurt the entire organization?
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Because what else would keep us slavishly posting away at the message boards
after the trade deadline? Speculation is fun!
Sid Bream's Moustache - August 5, 2009
What do you mean by stunt his development? I can understand the money issue and with me not being completely sure about the rules for calling up players before September/in September with the 40-man roster/arb-years/etc., I also want to see him in AAA…but either way, wouldn’t he face the same adversity in AAA as the Majors?
award6 - August 5, 2009
No
there is a difference between each level. AAA is tougher than AA. The Majors are even tougher than AAA. AAA is great for players to reveal holes in their swing, learn how to deal with pitchers that have full pitching arsenals and can command their pitches better than AA pitchers.
Look, my premise is very simple: Why take the risk of sening Heyward to the ML early, stunting his development? Thus far, the precedent has been a mixed bag with some successes and some clear failures all over the league. It could end up costing money AND hurt the team as a whole because, lets be honest, we need guys like Heyward to succeed. The Braves organization can challenge him by sending him to AAA with much less risk. If he succeeds, great. Send him to the AFL and let him audition for the job in spring training 2010.
If the organization does decide to call Heyward up, I won’t complain. I just think there is inherent risk in doing so, so I would advise caution.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Or it could be because he was hot for a few days.
Please don’t use a three-game sample to discredit an entire minor league level’s pitchers.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
I'm not
but it is a fact that AA level pitchers aren’t as good as AAA level pitchers for the most part. Often they are still working on developing their repetoir and their command to a level that AAA pitchers have already done and ML pitchers have mastered (most of them).
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
All this talk about Heyward
What about Freeman? No one has really mentioned him. I’m not saying he should be called up before Heyward just curious as to peoples thoughts on him being called up.
Personally i think the guy should go with Heyward to AAA. He may not come out mashing like Heyward does but he always makes the adjustment at every level and just produces.
drumzalicious - August 5, 2009
I was wondering about Freeman. Isn’t he roomies with Heyward? If Jay-Hey were to go to AAA this season, I’d really love to see Freeman go with…for the sake of nostalgia
award6 - August 5, 2009
yea
apparently roommates/best friend types.
It’s kinda cool to have these various pairs of prospects coming up through the system
Hanson/Medlen
Heyward/Freeman.
drumzalicious - August 5, 2009
mccann and fr...
oh wait, err nevermind
MYFG - August 5, 2009
well
Freeman hasnt been as hot lately as Heyward, hes doing great but not amazing as Jason
bravesfan1047 - August 5, 2009
He's probably on the really good track, as opposed to the ridiculous track.
So he’ll probably stay in AA this year, see AAA next year, and be considered for a callup next year, although it probably wouldn’t be likely before September or midseason at earliest.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
i would assume Freeman is on the Hanson track…he’ll go to the AFL… and then spring training (obv)… and then to AAA and we’ll see how he does… and then screw around to wait on his clock
Swo12bv - August 5, 2009
Listen to Bill James
“When there is a disconnect between a player’s major league and minor league records, some people want to ascribe this to some mystical difference between major league baseball and minor league baseball. Unless you can say specifically what that difference is, this is akin to magical thinking—asserting that there is some magical “major league ability,” which is distinct from the ability to play baseball."
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
But there is a definite difference
between the talent levels in the minor leagues and major league. That difference would be exacerbated if one were to skip levels, as in from AA to AAA. It doesn’t always work.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
There is also a definite difference
between the talent levels of Jason Heyward and most of AA.
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Agreed
So send him to AAA. Seems logical to me.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Mr. James again
" In fact, there is a very significant overlap between the major leagues and Triple A. Many of the players in Triple A are better than many of the players in the majors. "
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Sure
Brooks Conrad/Brandon Jones over Frenchy any day. Heyward would get to have his shot against ML or almost ML level competition. But not all AAA guys are ML talents. Many would be platoon/bench players. Many are AAAA players. It would be a good place for him to learn.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
does that imply
that you think it will be a difficult transition?
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
It may be
Maybe Heyward crushes AAA too. Maybe he could be a MLer right now. I’m not saying he couldn’t. Just saying that there is risk, and in this organization it is a gamble that can’t be afforded literally and figuratively.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Back to the original article...
But if the Braves feel they are out of the playoffs, wouldn’t you rather see Heyward go to AAA and get some playoff hunt experience there and maybe give the G-Braves that final push to either make the playoffs or win in the playoffs? Just a thought…
award6 - August 5, 2009
I would.
If we’re out of it, there’s absolutely no point to calling him up and wasting service time.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
For all that people are whining about Upton and Francoeur...
How about Miguel Cabrera? He made the jump from AA and was a pretty significant contributor to a team that did alright in the playoffs.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Of course
there are plenty of guys who did make it. Andruw Jones got the call at 18 from AA as I recall. What we are saying is that it is a mixed bag. Some succeed, some fail. The Braves can’t afford to screw up with Heyward, so take the less risky road is all I am proposing.
Not saying I would be angry if Heyward were called up either, especially if he succeeds. Just promoting caution.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
There's no reason to be so conceptual
when this is clearly a topic that lends itself to individualized analysis.
Just because it’s a “mixed bag” doesn’t mean success or failure is random.
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Fair
but again, why take the risk. Just think if Heyward fails. How screwed would the Braves be if they ruined their best prospect for the future? Really Really screwed.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
Quite screwed, indeed
I just don’t think a promotion will ruin his career.
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Maybe not
But it could. I don’t think it would either. I sincerely hope it wouldn’t. But why risk that?
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
I don't see the risk.
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Thats fine
thats where we can agree to disagree. Again, I won’t be upset if he gets called up, but I think it is a risky move for an organization that absolutely needs their young prospects to succeed for their future.
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
fair enough
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
Just as un-screwed as we are...
When guys like Prado go from totally unregarded to decent everyday players.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Eh
How often does a Prado come around? yeah, I love how he is playing right now. I sure think he is our 2b of the future, or at least it seems so now. But organizations can’t rely on guys coming out of nowhere like that…
Andy Braves Fan - August 5, 2009
I agree
wouldn’t trivialize the importance of player development.
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
I don't think he'll stick at 2B...
But I think he’s got a bat worth being in the lineup regularly.
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
And he will play where?
Not enough power for 3B or 1B. and the OF is set.
I am pretty sure when Chip is leaving the organization is looking for someone like Heyward just at 3B
drumzalicious - August 6, 2009
what if he had sucked at AA instead of tearing it up? It is believed that the switch from A to AA is the most difficult transition and Heyward got better, I think he’d handle himself just fine in the majors. Besides some failure isn’t guaranteed to screw the kid up which you seem to suggest, in fact it would likely help his development
McCann's the Man - August 5, 2009
See Upton, Justin
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
Will Heyward be at Mississippi on the 31st?
I am heading down there to catch a game, but will I get a chance to see Heyward?
MBraves! - August 5, 2009
Maybe off the subject, but I think we need to try and sign LaRoche to a 3 year deal and if Freeman proves he belongs in the Majors we can trade Adam at that time. We are gonna have the same issue next year as we have this one: Lots of contact hitters with very little power. I know Heyward should be a big help in that area, but even if he does put up 25+ homers in his first full season we still need a power bat at 1B. Freeman isn’t ready. He probably won’t be ready at any time next year. I see him being useful in 2011 and probably not before.
KC Ryan - August 5, 2009
Personally,...
I like the idea of Troy Glaus, Nick Johnson, Pedro Feliz, Carlos Delgado, or Russell Branyan to a 1 year deal more than LaRoche for 3. Or let Barbaro Canizares see what he can do if given the chance to play everyday (or with others to help, especially defensively like Prado or Diaz).
Mr. Sanchez - August 5, 2009
Why would Freeman not be ready?
He’ll have a couple hundred AA PAs by the end of the year. By the time he approached the 250 mark in AAA, he’s probably not going to be doing himself any good. Also, trading LaRoche (as with any player) will not be a snap of the fingers proposition. For a player who will command big money this offseason, that will probably be a tough contract to sell to people who realize he’s probably right around the 50th percentile when it comes to MLB starting first basemen. And finally, how exactly will Freeman “prove he belongs in the Majors” with an entrenched, high-dollar veteran above him on the organizational depth chart? Will we be sitting LaRoche with his $8+ million salary to get Heyward spot starts?
MichaelProcton - August 5, 2009
HMMM...
SO U PULL MY BLOG DOWN JUST TO WRITE THE SAME STORY I WROTE YESTERDAY NICE ONE ’’gondeee’’
ca$hmere36 - August 5, 2009
try taking off the caps
McCann's the Man - August 5, 2009
just a guess, but
THIS ONE’S PROBABLY BETTER, “ca$hmere36”
VivaLosBravos - August 5, 2009
You know, I think that was me that deleted it
It was pretty incomprehensible, and I’m pretty sure this was up and posted before yours was.
royhobbs - August 6, 2009
Heyward, I think so
Freeman, maybe wait. I think that at the worst, Heyward could be as good as Ryan Church is now. So if there’s a chance he could increase the output in RF, put him in.
Freeman’s not doing poorly by any means, but he’s obviously not in the same league as Heyward, and he might need some more seasoning, probably at AAA to start next season.
FineHamAbounds - August 5, 2009
WELL IT WASNT
SINCE IM IN AFGHANISTAN A WHOLE 11.5 HRS AHEAD OF YOU GUYS BTW AND IT WAS A VENT NOT A LETS DISCUSS BTW.
LOVE THE ROD RIDING BACK-UP POSSE THOUGH,LOL.
ITS NOT A BIG DEAL JUST THOUGHT IT WAS FUNNY THAT SOMEONE WOULD COPY AND PASTE MY ENTIRE BLOG THATS ALL.
ca$hmere36 - August 6, 2009
seeya.
royhobbs - August 6, 2009
SSDD?
drumzalicious - August 6, 2009
see Susan’s DD’s.
10-4 - August 6, 2009
WHAT'S A ROD RIDING BACK UP POSSE?
SOUNDS LIKE FUN!!!
buzzdeadwax - August 6, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Talking Chop to post a comment.