Are you a big fan of Jason Heyward? How about Cody Johnson? Do you think they'll be in an Atlanta Braves uniform one day? And for how long? Since 2000, how many first round picks would you say the Braves still have in their organization? Counting first rounders and supplemental first rounders here is a list:
Of all the first rounders and supplemental first rounders we've drafted since 2000, only one, Kelly Johnson, is still in the majors with Atlanta, and he is on the disabled list. Furthermore, he and Chipper Jones (1990) are the only ones still in the organization of those first rounders drafted before 2006. From 2000 to 2007, 10 of the Braves 18 first round picks were traded!
I'm not sure if there is any analysis that can be gleaned from this list, other than the fact that the Braves certainly aren't afraid to use their prospects to acquire major league talent. I'm not all that familiar with other organization's minor league talent, but I would posit that there isn't another organization that comes close to trading away more than 50% of their first round picks over the course of nine years.
0 recs | 45 comments
With the exception to Wainwright...
We have made the right move on all of them. Somebody knows what they are doing. We have the best scouting guys in the Majors to be able to know if these guys are gonna work out for us or not.
Matt_Grbac - July 18, 2009
You might be able to raise the question about Joey Devine, as well, because all we got for him were a few months of Mark Kotsay. The elbow surgery hurts his case, but he put up some ridiculous numbers for Oakland last year in 45 innings. If he comes back strong from surgery, we may feel differently about it.
But all in all, it’s not like we’ve given away great players and gotten back garbage. Francoeur, McBride, Atilano, Meyer, Saltalamacchia-they aren’t lighting the world on fire.
Bronn - July 18, 2009
Then again...
Devine was probably never going to be the player he could be here, because Bobby wasn’t confident in him at all.
MichaelProcton - July 18, 2009
I dunno.. I sure as hell think that Jarrod Saltalamachia could outproduce Casey Kotchman, and give McCann a day off twice a week. It saves a roster spot, twice.
Mighty Healthy - July 18, 2009
Uhm
He plays his home games in a notorious hitters’ park, and Casey Kotchman is still posting an OPS 100 points higher. And David Ross is smoking both of them-he has the same number of HRs as Salty in less than half the ABs. If anything, HE needs to play 1B from time to time.
Salty is having a very Francoeur-ish season, with just a tad more power, with the best hitting coach in the world. I think we’re doing all right having traded him.
Bronn - July 18, 2009
Agreed...
Although Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and even Matt Harrison make the trade look WAY lopsided.
pancanbra - July 18, 2009
Yes, perhaps
But if we had gone to the playoffs in 2007 and 2008 (without the midseason trade of Tex for Kotchman) I would call it a fair trade, given that Salty and Matt Harrison aren’t performing.
And by all rights, we should have been in the playoffs in 2008. Our pythagorean W/L was 5 games better than our actual record (bad luck), and we tried 7 different starting pitchers in the 4th and 5th rotation spots. The best of those was Buddy Carlyle with a 5.21 ERA. We had some disastrous experiments like Mark Redmond, Lance Cormier, and Kyle Davies.
And then last year, our starting pitching was supposed to be really good, but Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, and Mike Hampton all had their injury struggles. Imagine if we’d had those 3 with Jurrjens healthy all year?
I can’t blame Teixeira for our not making the playoffs because he raked while he was here, and we didn’t give away any major league-ready pitching for him (which was our downfall both years) so we just suffered from a case of kharmic bad luck.
Bronn - July 18, 2009
Fair enough...
But, bad luck aside, that’s still alot of future talent that you’re giving up just to make the playoffs for one or two years. I think if you’re going to give up that much young talent for ONE guy, you should be prepared to lock him up right away. The Braves were not prepared to do that however, and thus they essentially gave the Rangers the best farm club in baseball for Casey Kotchman (a gold glove calibur 1st baseman who is a subpar hitter).
pancanbra - July 18, 2009
Don’t forget we also got Mahay, who in turn got us Craig Kimbrel. And even though he is struggling, we got Marek as well.
graf - July 18, 2009
Eh.
pancanbra - July 18, 2009
That’s the equivalent of me saying something like “The Braves gave the Rangers a bunch of minor leaguers who could or could not pan out for Mark Teixeira, an All Star, Gold Glove first baseman.” Trading for Teixeira gave the team a chance to make the playoffs two years in a row. The problem is that the team paid a premium for Teixeira.
Whether you lock a player up long term or not should have nothing to do with whether you trade for him or not. A player’s trade value is based on the player’s current and projected ability, salary, and years of team control left. Besides, a year and a half of Mark Teixeira for $17M starting at age 27 has more trade value than 8 years of Teixeira at $180M starting at age 29 (or even 27).
VictorW - July 18, 2009
I guess I kinda see your point. But why trade your future away for a guy you know you aren’t going to be able to afford to resign? I’d rather have 5 minor leaguers who have the potential to be starters than Teixiera for one year. Teixiera had good trade value because of his low salary, but his value was lowered because of his short contract length and lack of signability. By in by, it was a bad trade…even if we would’ve made the playoffs. The only way that trade would’ve been worth it is if we either a) won the world series, or b) signed Teixiera to a long term deal.
pancanbra - July 18, 2009
Ross at 1B is an interesting idea.
It’s been since ’99, but he did play five games there in high A-ball.
MichaelProcton - July 18, 2009
this^
HEYJUDE - July 19, 2009
These 2 replies were intended for Bronn ^ in agreement to his comment on Kotchman and Ross!
Way up there^^^^
HEYJUDE - July 19, 2009
This^
HEYJUDE - July 19, 2009
Based upon what, precisely?
He certainly hasn’t done so thus far.
MichaelProcton - July 18, 2009
The Braves should try Ross out at first, Right Handed bat it cant hurt to try. If the guy can block an 89 mph slider in the dirt im sure he can ground some balls. He has got some length as well what the hell!!!
That a boy - July 18, 2009
He played there for five games in the minor.
MichaelProcton - July 18, 2009
well we got crap for mcbride, you remember Wilfredo?
Heyward is the next crime dog - July 18, 2009
That was just your old-fashioned “our crap for your crap” trade.
Bronn - July 18, 2009
Heyward
isn’t going anywhere for a long time, if ever. I’m sure we’ll give up on Johnson at some point and include him in a package of prospects for someone.
BlueVol03 - July 18, 2009
I agree with you on Heyward...
But then again, we were saying the same exact thing about Francoeur a few years back, so you never know. I certainly hope we don’t give up on Johnson, I think he’s got tons of potential. Yes, he’s got a hole in his swing, and yes he strikes out a lot, but that kid has POWER. He’s leading the league in homers and he’s hitting in a hardcore pitcher friendly park. He’s also dramatically raised his batting average since his first seasons as a pro. There’s obviously still a long way to go for him to be major league ready, but I think he already has major league power. A certain guy by the name of Adam Dunn comes to mind who also strikes out a TON. But there’s definitely a place in the league for guys like Dunn, Howard, etc. who always swing for the fences, even if it means 100+ K’s.
pancanbra - July 18, 2009
If you knew what to look for from Francouer
You could have seen his impending downfall from his minor league numbers. We were all caught up in the ridiculous first two months of his major league career and lost all perspective about what kind of hitter he really is.
He never posted a .300 average above rookie ball, so he wasn’t an elite average hitter. His OBP was below average in pretty much every league, so he couldn’t reach base often enough. He wasn’t an elite speed guy. He had good power, but again, above rookie ball his OPS stayed below .800, so the translations weren’t good. It was only in his final partial season at AA that he finally slugged enough to slip his OPS over .800, but his approach couldn’t carry him in the major leagues for long.
Jason Heyward doesn’t have these problems. He hits for a good BA, good OBP, takes his walks, and his power numbers aren’t elite but still pretty solid. And he’s only 19, so he’s got time to develop his power. And he’s probably also got a slight speed advantage on Francoeur.
Bronn - July 18, 2009
Good points on Francouer...
I think most people were fine with his subpar OBP and batting average as long as he continued developing power like most young hitters do. But instead of hitting more homers, he stopped hitting them completely. Hopefully Heyward’s power will come (he is a corner outfielder after all). Either way though, he certainly can hit a baseball thus far in his career.
pancanbra - July 18, 2009
This is Adam Dunn’s minor league numbers: .304/.425/.525 Cody Johnson is no Adam Dunn until he learns what a walk is, though he has improved his K/BB ratio this season.
VictorW - July 18, 2009
Gotta crawl before you can walk.
pancanbra - July 18, 2009
Dunn is NOT a good comparison.
In 3.5 pro seasons (up to A+) by the age of 20, Johnson has struck out every 2.76 ABs.
In 3 pro seasons (up to A) through the age of 20, Dunn struck out once every 4.56 ABs…or 60% less often.
Howard didn’t go pro until he was 21, but in his first 3 pro seasons (A+), he struck out every 3.28 ABs (or, still, more than 15% less frequently.) You’ll also note that his OPS has gone down in each of his full pro seasons. Perhaps this approach wasn’t sustainable and the pitchers have figured it out?
It’s one thing to strike out a ton in the majors. But at the low levels of the minors?
MichaelProcton - July 18, 2009
Hey, it beats the 90s, where aside from Chipper we didn’t get squat out of our top picks.
cbwilk - July 18, 2009
I agree about the 90s, Chipper aside, those were awful drafting years!
HEYJUDE - July 19, 2009
The point to be made here is that heyward is our highest pick since we took chipper and mike Kelly. Kelly was just a busy but its not like we have been getting world changing talent in our first round drafts the last few seasons. Hell we were incredibly lucky to get heyward where we did
yondaime4 - July 18, 2009 via mobile
We’ve drafted a ton better this decade than we did during the 90’s.
From 2002-2007 we drafted a trio of studs with Heyward, Hanson and McCann. Getting three potential superstars in six drafts is a pretty damn fantastic ratio that’s worth celebrating. Add to the the depth from those six years with a lot of arms (Morton, Meyer, James, Devine, Reyes, Locke, Medlen, Rohrbough), and we’ve drafted a lot bats that have become big-time prospects/productive big leaguers on top of Heyward, with people like Saltalamacchia, Escobar, Schafer, Flowers, Cody Johnson, and Freeman.
timmy3 - July 18, 2009
Excellent point. We had some good farm systems in the 90s but we really did waste some early draft picks.
yondaime4 - July 18, 2009 via mobile
Bottom Line
The Braves need to start drafting better. There is nothing in terms of position prospects in the farm after Freeman and Heyward. Cody Johnson is way to much of a question mark. Where are the SS, 2B, 3B prospects in this system?
NEBravesFan33 - July 18, 2009
SS and 2B are covered for the next 4 to 5 years with Escobar and Prado, so they’re not pressing needs right now. Chipper still has a couple more years left in him, but we should start looking to groom a replacement (although Prado could always move to 3B). Not to mention Infante could fill a starting role.
pancanbra - July 18, 2009
Start drafting better? Really?
When you get three guys in Heyward, Hanson and McCann in a six year stretch that all look to be perennial all-star types, you’re doing just fine draft wise. And you can’t really dis the Braves on not producing infielders when we have Escobar, Johnson, Prado are all in the majors. And we added a bunch of SS/3B types in the ‘09 draft and it’s too early to tell what we really have with them yet.
It’s pretty tough to discount our middle infield depth when IMO, we have four guys in Prado, Infante, Escobar and Johnson that have the talent to play everyday at SS or 2B.
timmy3 - July 18, 2009
Seriously when you graduate or trade players your can’t expect to have every position covered every year. Especially when your organizational philosophy is to draft pitching, pitching, pitching and then hitters
yondaime4 - July 18, 2009 via mobile
I love our philosophy though. I love that we focus on pitching, and especially lefties, because you can always move pitching. Look at Nelson Payano the guy we ended up trading for Greg Norton. A 25-yr old pitcher at AA with a career 1.60 WHIP, yet we were able to get something productive out of that guy because of his handedness. There’s only so many young left-handed individuals in the world that can throw a baseball 90 MPH and the Braves have been getting ahold of a lot of them lately.
timmy3 - July 18, 2009
Red Sox do it
NEBravesFan33 - July 18, 2009
Red Sox do it
NEBravesFan33 - July 18, 2009
Last I checked, they have one of the largest budgets in baseball.
bigjoe - July 18, 2009
um
since when is Prado suddenly the answer in the infield.
to me these stats scream bad scouting. First rounders need to be serviceable major leaguers and other than wainwright and devine, the scouts largely missed.
mrsoprano - July 18, 2009
Do you REALLY wanna play this game?
2000 MLB Draft 1st round (Kelly’s year):
#1: Adrian Gonzalez
#2: Adam Johnson-25 terrible MLB IP
#3: Luis Montanez-56 MLB GP
#4: Mike Stodolka-reached AA before leaving baseball
#5: Justin Wayne-62 bad MLB IP
#6: Rocco Baldelli
#7: Matt Harrington-never played for affiliated MLB team
#8: Matt Wheatland-never played for affiliated MLB team
#9: Joe Torres-AA
#10: Dave Krynzel-21 MLB games
#11: Joe Borchard
#12: Shaun Boyd-50 AAA games
#13: Beau Hale-AA, out of baseball
#14: Chase Utley
#15: Billy Traber-I’d hardly call 211 IP of below-average middle relief and spot starts “serviceable”, but I’ll credit him for you
#16: Ben Diggins-24 terrible MLB IP, out of baseball
#17: Miguel Negron-just over 100 AAA games
#18: Sean Burnett
#19: Chris Bootcheck-132 bad MLB IP, but I’ll count him too
#20: Boof Bonser
#21: Phil Dumatriat-<100 terrible MLB IP; doesn’t count yet, but he’s showing to be at least serviceable this year, so maybe he sticks in the bigs
#22: David Espinosa-AAA
#23: Blake WIlliams-high A, out of baseball
#24: Scott Heard-high A, out of baseball
#25: Corey Smith-12 AAA games
#26: Robert Stiehl-never played for affiliated MLB team
#27: Dave Parrish-AAA
#28: Adam Wainwright
#29: Scott Thorman-obviously not serviceable
#30: Tripper Johnson-AA, out of baseball
#31: Dustin McGowan
#32: Dustin Moseley
#33: Tyrell Godwin-3 MLB GP, out of baseball
#34: Bob Keppel-53 mediocre MLB IP
#35: Derek Thompson-18 MLB IP, out of baseball
#36: Kelly Johnson
#37: Chad Hawkins-high A, out of baseball
#38: Aaron Herr-AAA
So yeah, seems like there’s a lot of scouts “missing” on 1st-round picks.
MichaelProcton - July 19, 2009
Wow, I have gotten an autograph from 30 of those guys.
cbwilk - July 20, 2009
Haha...#7 or #8?
MichaelProcton - July 20, 2009
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