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Talking Chop

Jeff Francoeur and the extra base hit

When Jeff Francoeur burst on the scene in 2005, he did so with a display of power that the Braves desperately needed. He hit a magical homerun in his first game, and slugged five more his first month in the big leagues. Since then, it seems that Francoeur's power has been withering away, like that silver happy birthday balloon that slowly sinks to the floor as it loses more and more of its helium.

This season, Frenchy has supplied so little power that he is sandwiched at the bottom of the league in sluggling percentage, right between the light-hitting Mike Fontenot and David Eckstein. This is just one reason why the Atlanta Braves should part ways with Jeff Francoeur.

Star-divide

The trend line for Jeff Francoeur's slugging percentage is not a good one:

Year SLG %
2005 .549
2006 .449
2007 .444
2008 .359
2009 .351


Francoeur's power has done nothing but drop every year he's been in the majors. While other stats have fluctuated, his power simply declines.

A right fielder with the ability to get extra base hits is an important, if not essential, part of a winning baseball team. A team simply does not stick a weak hitter in a corner outfield spot, and yet the Braves have done nothing but that the last two years (so should we be surprised by our team's results).

When Jeff Francoeur hits for power this year, and it is admitedly a small sample size -- just 15 games with an extra base hit, and just 1 game with two extra base hits -- the Braves have fared better than their season winning percentage. The team has 9 wins and 6 losses in games that Francoeur has collected an extra base hit, and they are 5-and-1 in games in which he has homered. While this is a small sample size, it ceratinly seems that when our right fielder hits for power, as he should, this team is better.

The problem is that it is only 15 games. Only 15 games in which he has collected an extra base hit. So all those games in which he doesn't get an XBH, the team is 27-and-34. How many of those losses could be turned into wins if Francoeur had contributed an extra base hit or two? Just double the XBH by Francoeur and the Braves might have a winning record.

Nothing in his career, and nothing this year says that Jeff Francoeur is going to turn things around. He can barely hit major league pitching, and he certainly can't hit with any consistent power. The Braves need to replace Jeff Francoeur with someone else who has a chance of being a better threat to drive in runs and hit for extra bases. I don't know that there is anyone currently in our system, and potentially major league ready, who we could replace Francoeur with.

This underscores the need to trade for another outfielder -- one that can hit for power -- and send Francoeur down, or simply outright release him. There is no good reason to keep a batter like him in the lineup for the rest of the season.

2 recs  |  123 comments

Comments

Needless to say

I agree 1,000%!!!!

But he's doing SOOOOOOOOO good lately!

He’s coming around, duh.

Gondeee, You are right on……..

Realese him or trade him for whatever you can get

but what is his

SLG % with turkey underwear?

please note the sarcasm

Hey man, 8-0 with the Turkies!
He didn't actually wear them las tnight.

went commando?

I suppose it's possible...

But I doubt it.

I say send him down. I wouldn’t just release him. Our AAA team needs some help.

Terrible timing on this post. Jeff hit the ball very good last night and has showed steady improvement over the past couple of weeks. What did he do within the last couple of games that suggests that he can’t be on the verge of being more productive?

I’m in flux on if he’ll be the matter of him bouncing back or not. But I’m not on the FYF bandwagon. If you’d asked me a few weeks ago I would have said get whatever you can for him. But after a couple fo weeks of him seeing the ball pretty well I just think the timing on this thread couldn’t have been much more out of place.

Wow...

We were writing these posts at the exact same time…congrats on hitting the button first! :)

I'll take the last two years worth of results over the last "couple of games."
but if it will cost exactly the same

whether we release him or keep him, there is no one clearly better to take his spot, and he’s hitting the ball well lately, wouldn’t it be somewhat ridiculous to not ride this thing out and see if maybe he’s really changed (even if it is a a minuscule chance?).

Actually, if we trade him...

He won’t cost us anything.

but nobody is going to take on his contract

for exactly the reasons you’ve been saying over and over again. The only way we could move him would be to pick up his contract and take almost nothing in return.

However

This may be an ill-timed post on your part being that he has hit really well over the past ten days. Though the numbers are telling!

Now, Frenchy grates on my nerves as much as he does everyone elses. But I do think we should see what he can do over the next few weeks. If he can keep it going, then great. If not, dump him (for whatever we can or cannot get).

I know that most will not agree with my sentiments, but do you demote/trade/drop a player when he is doing what you want him to be doing (even though we do not know how long it will last)?

Obviously I agree. He is outperforming his trade value right now which is virutally nothing. If his recent surge in competency falters then get rid of him. But if we trade him now for th equivilent of a bag of balls and he continues to improve his production/plate discipline we will have lost.

What surge in competency?… He’s the same shitty hitter he’s been since ’07.

looked good at the plate last night

and he’s been taking more pitches recently and getting into better counts.

I’m not saying that we shouldn’t trade him. I’m just saying that right now is the worst time to do it.

Or it's the best time if we can find somebody who agrees with you.

Then he can become their disaster three weeks out of every month.

How many times have we given that chance?

A few games worth of production don’t outweigh a few seasons without it.

To those claiming that Failcoeur has hit the ball well of late...

Damnit, didn’t mean to post just that… Enter button fail.

Anyways…

Last 7 days: 5 games, .263/.300/.368 – .668 OPS
Last 14 days: 11 games, .256/.310/.410 – .720 OPS

This is only good by his horrible standards. This isn’t him hitting the ball well. Still horribly bad numbers.

good numbers…they also indicate that he is doing worse this week than he was last week.

And that he hasn’t been competent the last couple weeks at all, like some have suggested.

Last 28 days: 23 games, .250/.310/.338 – .648 OPS
Last 365 days: 146 games, .245/.290/.341 – .631 OPS

Jeff has set the bar so low, that people are starting to think even a .700 OPS looks good.

No, he hit better this week

He has a slightly higher average in the past 7 days vs the previous 7, but a lower OPS, SLG and OBP…how is that hitting better?

If by better you mean his slash stats have been lower than yes you are right.

Beating a Dead Horse

Don’t you think you’ve covered off on this quite a bit? Francoeur is awful. He is going to be non tendered this offseason and out of the Braves business forever. It’ll be better for the franchise.

How about discussing Yunel Escobar getting traded? Because he will probably be off this team before the beloved Frenchy is.

yeah unfortunately Yunel seems to be doing everything right if his end goal is to play elsewhere.

I hope not

I could definitely see this happening, even though he’s a top ten shortstop In the MLB and probably even better than that if you ignore Jason Bartletts career year. Anything we get to replace him would be a step down, and he’s affordable and under contract for a while.

We'd obviously upgrade somewhere else.

Do you people think teams can really just trade crap and get back pieces that will improve their team?

But then who plays short?

Lets face it, Yunel is a great SS. He is injured now, but people don’t like him because of his mental errors. He is 24 years old and far and away a better SS than Hanley Ramirez. Trading Yunel would be a huge mistake…

Someone we got back in said trade?

Infante could also manage there.

Who would we get back

It would be like trading Tex for Kotchman, we already did that and it sucked….

not defensively

and would you rather get nothing in return for Tex due to him leaving via Free Agency?

Oh, and he's not 24. He's 27.

I still don’t understand why everyone thinks he’s so young?

Because birth certificates don't really exist in third-world countries?
I have no idea why I thought he was 24

but either way, I don’t like the idea of trading a good SS for a corner OFer or anything else. Good Shortstops are so hard to find.

Also, re; my comment about Hanley, obviously not offensively, but defensively. Just wanted to be clear.

Better than Hanley?

I would seriously watch what you say. That is an ill worded statement.

I know

that’s why I added that I was talking about defense, not as a whole. And he is better at defense (despite the fact that he has committed a bunch of errors). I would add that Escobar’s most recent errors might have something to do with the fact that his hip clearly isn’t right…

You're asking the wrong crowd on that one...

red sox fans think they can, go to a espn page on the red sox and their fans will be completely serious about BS trades.

Why would we non-tender him if we could get something for him now?

KC has made no bones about the fact that they would be interested in him. I am sure that there are other teams out there who feel the same way. GMs are always willing to take a low-risk, high-reward player.

i.e. Andruw Jones

...who was available at the minimum in free agency, not to be traded for.
Holy Christ!

Andruw Jones is still awful, guys! Look at the monthly and home/road splits, please! He’s utterly useless…

Yeah, but somebody took a chance on him and decided he coudl be their 4th OF.

That’s clear proof there should be interest in Francoeur.

Jeff doesn't come at the league min. so it's not really proof.

that was a hasty example. I’d say the KC GM’s quote about Frenchy being a fully developed player (or something like that) is clear proof that some GMs would be willing to take him and players like him…as would the trading of Lastings Milledge. There are plenty of examples of teams taking a chance in a trade on a player.

I think Milledge is a different example...

He’s a guy who’s never put it together, unlike FYF, who was at least initially successful and then fell apart.

Also, we are talking about Yunel getting traded…check out the fanshots.

That should be lead story

Buster Olney wrote a bit about it this morning. It’s a huge deal. He’s only one of the Braves most valuable players and we are talking about Frenchy(their least valuable player).

I posted that blog comment

in my fanpost. Gondee isn’t on here 24/7 to update the lead stories.

A passing comment by Buster doesn’t warrant lead story. I saw that comment this morning, but didn’t feel it was enough to quibble over, and it was nothing new that we didn’t already know about Yunel.

In case anyone is still beating on the “but Jeff is such a great defender” argument…

I just thought I’d drop in and say that Heyward just grabbed his 7th and 8th OF assists of the season in the third inning in Kinston. This is just his 40th game in the field this season.

He threw out a guy at home last night too.

what are the alternatives?

We have nobody in the organization to replace him with. I don’t see any promising trade options and I don’t know what type of offseason shopping will help us much, especially when you consider the bean counters will almost certainly cut payroll.

Of course every team has one or two Francoeurs in the lineup. A good team, with good coaching and good management and good teamwork finds a way to minimize the damage and compensate with solid fundamentals. Hell, the Marlins have about five Francoeurs in their lineup and they sit above us in the standings.

Jeff is a problem, but he is not the problem.

I’d have to disagree.

1) The Marlins have one problem position, third base. Not five.
2) Reid Gorecki got off to a slow start, but he hit as many HRs (5) as Jeff has for the year last month and batted .296/.352/.571 for the month of June at Gwinnett. I’d be all for giving that guy a shot. Nothing to lose, and if it works that’s a decent big leaguer we didn’t have before.

As a stopgap, playing Diaz everyday or platooned with either Blanco or Brandon Jones would be an upgrade offensively. Hell you could even try platooning Kelly Johnson out there if you are sold on Prado as the new everyday 2B.

We don't?

Diaz could do as well or better in right. Infante, too. Brandon Jones hits for even less power than Jeff, but he wouldn’t be that much worse, and he’d be eight times cheaper.

To say Diaz would do better in right is stupid

Defense isn’t where Jeff is a liability. Diaz is a servicable outfielder at best.

Actually, his defense is below average.

And I was talking about Diaz as an overall package, not specifically in the field.

Diaz

does benefit greatly from the platoon… and he would be a defensive downgrade. I am not a fan of the idea myself.

Diaz would be JF-Ks equivalent in right IMO.

He was a bad defensive player when he got here, but he’s improved a lot. His defense is really good in left, and he’d be solid in right. Considering the offensive upgrade he’d be, I think giving him starts over Jeff is a no-brainer. But Bobby won’t bench his guy more than once a week.

It’s time to quit talking about Diaz like he’s Adam Dunn defensively. It’s not 2006 anymore.

Matt Diaz UZR

-.5 (in LF) according to fangraphs. Not that numbers tell the entire story, and I do agree that Diaz has improved, but not that much…

Not to be too terribly argumentative.....

….but when he’s gotten extended playing time in LF he’s got a positive UZR.

Yes

He does, but what I am saying is that he plays out as a decent defensive LF, RF generally demands a little better with the glove. At best he comes out at an even 0.0 (probably).

The difference between LF and RF is park dependent. If we’re talking league-wide then there’s no real difference in a LF and a RF other than RF generally have more arm strength. But given the time to shag a few flyballs any LF could play RF and vice versa.

The arms is the biggest difference between left and right field. You don’t need a good arm to play left, b/c a majority of the throws you make will be to 2nd and third, and the left fielder is already on that side of the field. In right, you are basically throwing all the way across the field, a much longer and tougher throw to make. The range, as you are suggesting, is not a big deal, just different routes to take based on the differences in the ball coming of the bat.

I guess what it comes down to is that I believe Diaz can break 100 OPS+ as a regular…

I KNOW that Jeff can’t break 80.

That's fair

I just fear a defense of McLouth in Center, Diaz in right, and Anderson in left… It just seems like too many fringe average to below average ranges to me, even with Blanco as the defensive late-game defensive sub….

I'd take a line drive falling every now and then...

If it meant we could put up an extra run every two or three games.

Francoeur's not that high.

He has better range and a MUCH better arm than Diaz. And Diaz has proven that he can’t be an everyday player. So I don’t see how it is an upgrade.

If Diaz were in a platoon roll over there then maybe the offense could be better.

I doubt he has better range. Diaz is a lot faster than Jeff.

You may be right. But I would like to avoid watching Diaz’s alligator arms as the ball is bouncing past him to the fence as much as possible.

You are probably right on the range. But decision making goes to Jeff.

At least Diaz has proven he can hit some kind of pitching though. Francoeur can’t hit jack shit.

nobody disagrees with you there.

It was more directed at Fischerking, but then my point has been made. Matt and Jeff are both ok with the glove. Matty has more range, Jeff has the better arm. Matt can hit though, so there’s no need to say that Diaz wouldn’t be an upgrade.

agreed

but it goes back to what I was saying about when Diaz got the chance to play everyday last year his offense was terrible. And if he is in a godd platoon situation he has been much better.

If they can find someone to successfully platoon with him then I’m for it. I just don’t know who that would be.

Brian Jones, Gregor Blanco, Geoff Jenkins

Two guys from in our system and a free agent. Any of those guys plus Diaz in a platoon would outproduce Francoeur. And I think it has to be noted that Diaz was hurt last year too

Before the knee injury that took him out for most of the year he was in a bad slump. I don’t remember what his stats were at the time but they weren’t good.

I’m guessing you meant Brandon Jones but he hasn’t really showed much when he’s been up IMO, Gregor is incosistant. Geoff Jenkins may be a solid backup/platoon guy.

I guess my view is sure. If Jeff isn’t pulling his weight then you have to try something new. I tend to side with what Joe Simpson was talking about last night in that we will most likely make a move to improve our offense and that move will most likely be a RF’er before the deadline.

Fuck, why did I say Brian?

Dumbass

We have nobody in the organization to replace him with

Brandon Jones, Matt Diaz, Brian Barton

Of course every team has one or two Francoeurs in the lineup

Half-true. Every team has players that suck with the bat. However, most of these guys are not making $4M to suck and asking for more during arbitration after they suck. Most of these guys are not in RF, and most don’t blame their problems on their bats, their teamates hitting behind them, the press and more recently, their underwear.

Jeff is a problem, but he is not the problem.

True, but he is about 70% of the problem.

Reply fail

once again, saved by the block quotes…

:)

I don’t see B. Jones or Barton as an upgrade.

Diaz maybe for a while but he proved last year that he isn’t a full time player. platoon at best.

I just feel like my left nut would be an upgrade right now over that turkey-boxer waste of space.

But they'd be eight times cheaper.

If we dump that contract, it gives us a chance to bring on a reliever or a decent MI bench player.

We have to pay him the remainder of his $3.25 MM for this year, regardless though don’t we?

Not if we trade him.

I doubt anyone is going to eat that contract. We’re paying for him one way or another even if we can move him.

It’s not just the lack of power. It’s the lack of walks, the lack of steals, the mediocre range, the seemingly inevitable weak groundball (often into a doubleplay) with runners on base. The only thing Jeff does well is throw. That would be great for a pitcher, but not for a right fielder. Maybe he should do the reverse Ankiel?

I have been suggesting out the reverse Ankiel for a year now

But Frank Wren doesn’t read my posts apparently….

Anyone see the highschool games he pitched? His pitching then was better than his hitting has been since 07. Maybe the reverse Ankiel isn’t such a bad idea….

exactly

We know he can throw hard, just pray he learns to locate and throw a decent curve. Make him a closer or something so that he might actually provide value instead of suckage.

Screw that. This douche needs to go away forever.

Well, he already hits like a pitcher...

Hey jeff, we’ve found a position where your bat could actually be an asset.

hahaha

The only position where his bat could be an asset…

Other than that position

in AAA…

Or chopping down trees with that hack…

Seriously, though

Is a a .600 OPS actually good for a pitcher? Anyone have 20 seconds to research that?

The last five Silver Slugger winners have averaged 649 career

Although that number is obviously skewed by Owings’ 889, who’s never been lower than 771 in any season. The lowest career-high for any of them is Livan Hernandez’ 689.

Wouldn't ISO be better for this point than SLG?
Frenchy probably roided up in HS and then we he came to the big leagues he stopped and the power started slipping away.
Do not get rid of Francoeur!

He is the only way I can get my girlfriend to watch Braves games with me! If we trade him, then who will she have to look at (that is not rhetorical, I’m not a good judge of a man-looks)?

I don’t care if he can’t hit. Just so long as I am able to enjoy my game without having to fight her for the remote so she isn’t watching Lifetime or 48 Hours Mysteries, I don’t care if he strikes out 400 times a year!

OK, at least if we DO get rid of Francoeur, we have to acquire a pretty boy that all our girlfriends/wives will be happy with.

HAHAHAHA

Awesome!

HAHAHAHAHA

At least you can get your girlfriend to watch baseball. My girlfriend won’t watch at all…

Gregor's cute

And Brian is too, in the teddy-bear sort of way.

Sadly

This is one of the more valid reasons why a guy wouldn’t want to lose Francoeur. Although all the girls I know don’t agree, and are often quick to point out the goiter of a double chin of his.

I, personally,

have a thing going on for Javy Vazquez.

Here’s a nice picture of him…sorry about the ChiSox uniform, but I like the pic.

Also, I love it when he props his cap on the back of his head like here:

Yep, he’s a cutie. Unfortunately, as a starter, he’s only out there every five days.

Position players? Matty Diaz is attractive. This picture is, to me, super hot:

Be still my heart!

Probably unimportant, but...

Jeff Francoeur is currently hitting .321 in my MLB ‘08, the Show. It’s my second season controlling the team and he’s been playing great.

And, as we all know that Sony is the equivalent of real-life, it’s only a matter of time before Jeff Francoeur is hitting .321 and getting on base at a steady .342 clip.

Fantasy just became reality.

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