The original Making the Team Meter returns for its fourth year as the one-stop shop for finding out which players will break camp with the Braves. Throughout spring training I'll track the progress of each player who does not yet have a guaranteed spot on the opening day roster.
This year, like last year, the MTM will be broken down into two parts, one for pitchers and one for hitters. Today's installment will cover all the pitchers in camp and who might have a chance at making the team. To begin with we'll assume that there a is group that has already made the team, a pretty safe assumption with these guys. Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, and Mike Gonzalez are the pitchers who are safe on the opening day roster. As you'll see I'm keeping the rest of the bullpen guys on the bubble, though many of them are probably pretty close to locks as well. This will help us track recovery from injury and a return to effectiveness. Enjoy.
| Player, Position | Chance | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Acosta, RHP |  |
He's sort of the forgotten guy in the Braves pen, but he pitched well after coming back from injury. He should get a spot. |
| Jeff Bennett, RHP | |
A valuable guy as a swing man or a setup man. Say all you want about where he came from, but he kept the ball in the park last year and had a terrific finish to his season. He should have a spot in the pen. |
| Blaine Boyer, RHP | |
He was probably overused last year. I see him as trade bait or a setup man. |
| Francisley Bueno, LHP |  |
Nobody wants Frank Good, who snuck through waivers last month. He's still the fourth option as bullpen lefty. |
| Jorge Campillo, RHP | |
He should have a spot on the team, but will it be in the bullpen or the rotation? |
| Buddy Carlyle, RHP |  |
He's the ultimate no-frills reliever. I say he's on the bubble to make the team, and will likely get the pass to Gwinnett. |
| Rafael Cruz, RHP | |
As a teammate last year of Kawakami, Cruz is here as a friendly face to help the Japanese star. |
| Emiliano Fruto, RHP | |
He's one of those 4-A relievers who keeps getting chances, but he's behind a lot of people in Atlanta. |
| Mariano Gomez, LHP | |
A very tall left-hander who's trying to win a job. |
| Tommy Hanson, RHP | |
Just some kid who got an invite to spring training. |
| Anthony Lerew, RHP | |
Lerew is a real wildcard. He's coming back from elective TJ surgery and needs to prove he's a competitor. He could come out of nowhere this spring to compete for a bullpen spot. |
| Boone Logan, LHP | |
He will have the first crack at winning the LOOGY role out of the pen. |
| Stephen Marek, RHP | |
I'm eager to get a look at what this kid brings to the table. I think he'll be a solid member of our bullpen by 2010. |
| Kris Medlen, RHP | |
Is he going to stay in the starting rotation, or move back to the bullpen? |
| Charlie Morton, RHP | |
Oh, Charlie. I wonder if he's found any more "fierce competitor" in him. |
| Peter Moylan, RHP | |
He should be a lock for the pen, but we'll keep him on this list to monitor his health to see if he breaks camp with the team. |
| Eric O'Flaherty, LHP | |
The 2009 left-handed version of Chris Resop. |
| James Parr, RHP | |
It can't hurt for him to have an impressive spring. He needs to shake the "organizational arm" label. |
| Juan Perez, LHP | |
Yet another LOOGY candidate in camp. Perez has big league experience with the Pirates. |
| Todd Redmond, RHP | |
As a finesse pitcher he will have to really impress to get noticed -- the Braves haven't had good luck with finesse pitchers lately. |
| Jo-Jo Reyes, LHP | |
What will happen to Jo-Jo? Some people say he has the inside track on the fifth starter spot, but he's got a lot of competition. Could he make a play for the bullpen lefty role? |
| Jeff Ridgway, LHP | |
He's probably behind Logan and O'Flaherty for the LOOGY role. |
| Rafael Soriano, RHP | |
Everyone is eager to see if he will be healthy this year. |
| Phil Stockman, RHP | |
Will this be the year that Stockman gets a spot in the pen? |
| Luis Valdez, RHP | |
Minor league veteran had a breakout year as Mississippi's closer last year. Is he major league material or will he have to make a stop in Gwinnett first. |
| Arrow Key: |
|---|
| = Chance of making the team is even. |
| = Chance of making the team is going down. |
| = Chance of making the team is going up. |
The hitters edition will be out later this week when they report to camp, then there will be weekly editions for both the hitters and pitchers throughout the spring. (Programming note: the final prospect Q&A with you-know-who will be up tomorrow around noon -- and it might just be the best one yet.)
0 recs | 46 comments
Uh, Todd Redmond’s not left-handed.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
I don’t know why I can’t get it out of my head that Redmond’s not a lefty. I’ve made this mistake repeatedly, and I’m sure I’ll make it again, for some reason I’ve convinced myself he’s a lefty. Thanks for the corrections.
gondeee - February 15, 2009
Not a big deal. After all, it would take some truly apocalyptic pitching scenarios for Redmond to make the team.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
Isn’t Redman a lefty? That may be where you’re getting it from.
mattdiaz4life - February 15, 2009
I mean, it probably is, but who wants to admit that?
gondeee - February 15, 2009
LOL i thought Todd was a lefty because of Mark too
SayHeyWerd - February 15, 2009
Everyone loves Mark Redman!
mattdiaz4life - February 15, 2009
Mark Redman
Balancing rotations since 1999.
buzzdeadwax - February 17, 2009
Mark Redman is a former All-Star. And that year was one of the WORST of his career! That means he must be good.
bigjoe - February 18, 2009
High Win Total = Outstanding Season / Career
What part of this equation is so difficult for you to understand?
buzzdeadwax - February 18, 2009
I don’t want to be an ass but I think Todd Redmond is a righty. Given that the five mentioned in the paragraph are a lock, I agree 100% with the other 7 you named to make the team (assuming we go with 12 pitchers). I don’t know if Moylan will be ready to start the year, and I hope that Buddy is the one that takes his place.
eaheckman10 - February 15, 2009
All reports..
…lead to Moylan either being ready by opening day, or shortly there after.
RainDelay - February 15, 2009
I have seen
some reports that have him ready for opening day, and some that say May. Either way, I hope he returns and is healthy for a majority of the season
eaheckman10 - February 15, 2009
A few quibbles here:
To begin with, a couple disclaimers. First, I assume that the Braves will sign Tom Glavine to be the fifth starter, thus eliminating that as a possibility for Campillo or Morton or Reyes. Second, I make all my judgments as if the season began today (i.e., my mind can be changed by good/poor spring performance). That said…
Not sure how you give Manny Acosta a spot. He pitched quite poorly last year; the “post-injury” success you refer to is a whopping six innings of work. There are a ton of red flags for good luck on his 2007 season (.197 BABIP, anyone?), and his 5.21 FIP in 2008 is incredibly underwhelming. I see no reason why he should be on the team on Opening Day.
As much as I like Jeff Bennett, I don’t see a spot for him in a bullpen that’s already likely to include Jorge Campillo, and that should also include Buddy Carlyle. As for Carlyle, I’m not sure how a pitcher with a 3.58 FIP is a “no-frills” reliever. He adjusted his approach big time in 2008, effectively abandoning his curveball in favor of a cut fastball, and that change paid huge dividends—K’s way up, lots more ground balls, less homers, less walks. Carlyle should unquestionably be on the team from the get-go.
Finally, I hate the comparison between Chris Resop and Eric O’Flaherty. Resop was effectively a reclamation project: could the Braves fix a guy with solid stuff but no track record of major-league success? O’Flaherty, on the other hand, actually had an immensely successful 2007 season before back injuries derailed his 2008. He’s still hell on left-handed hitters, and he’s a very real talent where Resop was little more than a raw arm with a hard fastball.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
Not sure how you consider a FIP of 3.55 and a K:BB of 1.8 “immensely successful”, but hey, to each his own.
bigjoe - February 15, 2009
When you’re a LOOGY and you limit left-handed hitters to a .147/.278/.204 line, I’d say that’s pretty damned successful.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
Even if Glavine signs, there’s no reason to think he’ll be ready to start the season. Acosta seems to be a Cox fave, so he get’s an edge. Yes, Carlyle is no-frills. The comp between Resop and O’Flaherty is more about them both being claimed off waivers in the off-season and no one knowing much about them.
gondeee - February 15, 2009
Cox said today that the Braves won’t need a fifth starter until April 19, and he added that Glavine will surely be ready by then. If we get to carry an extra reliever for a couple of weeks, I’d much rather have O’Flaherty than Manny Acosta. Even if Manny is a Cox fave, let’s hope Cox can get over his addiction by Opening Day. I see what you mean by Carlyle being “no frills,” but he was still quite effective, to the extent that we ought to hope he’s not on the bubble, but rather on the roster. As for O’Flaherty, what little we know about him points to a great deal more potential than Resop ever had.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
Nice gondeee, I always like these. One little quibble though, about Buddy Carlyle. I’m about 99% positive that he’s out of options (I think he used these up with San Diego) so he’d have to clear waivers to be able to go to Gwinnett. And, even if he did, he has enough service time to declare free agency, which it seems likely that he’d do. I think he’ll make the team, so this is probably a moot point, but I thought I’d bring it up.
cbwilk - February 15, 2009
Actually...
…I think we burned his option last year.
RainDelay - February 15, 2009
According to David O’Brien, only four Braves are out of options: Josh Anderson, Blaine Boyer, Anthony Lerew, and Phil Stockman. That would imply Carlyle has options remaining. I like him over Jeff Bennett anyway.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
Yeah, but that article wasn’t complete. Chipper Jones, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, and Jeff Francoeur don’t have any options remaining either, but they weren’t mentioned. O’Brien was focusing on guys who are on the bubble, which I’d assume is why he wouldn’t mention Buddy, who has played all of the last two years with the team (aside from the start of 07, and a few rehab games with Richmond in 08 [that’s why he was there, no option involved]).
cbwilk - February 15, 2009
Actually, here’s the funny thing: Chipper Jones DOES have options left. It doesn’t matter since he’s got more than five years of service time, and as such, he can refuse any assignment to the minor leagues. Johnson, McCann and Francouer all still have minor-league options left too, and they could actually be sent back to the minors if the Braves so desired (remember Frenchy last year?).
O’Brien did actually provide a 100% complete list of players without options. Guys like Derek Lowe and Greg Norton were on there; they were later put aside because they join Chipper in the “5+ years of service” club. I’ll try to hunt down the list, but it might be tough because it’s buried in one of his old blogs. I’m pretty confident that Carlyle does indeed have minor-league options left.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
I’m pretty confident they don’t. The CBA was changed a few years ago to add an extra year to the options and to change them from a specific number to an unlimited number within the four years. Francouer and McCann and Johnson are all past their first four years on the 40 man, and they’re out of options. Frankly, if this is what O’Brien thinks, he wrong.
cbwilk - February 15, 2009
You get three option years, which can be used whenever the team so desires. During said option year, a team can recall and demote a player as often as it wants. Those option years can take place any time in a player’s career—Year 1 or Year 20. After five years of service time, you get the right of refusal. That’s my understanding of how it works. Given that understanding, O’Brien’s list makes perfect sense. Guys like Lowe and Soriano, who were yanked up and down a lot at the start of their careers, have no options left. Guys like Chipper and McCann, who came up and stayed up, still have option years remaining.
Here’s the other reason I believe O’Brien. Apparently there’s an “official list” of out-of-options players, provided by MLB (how else would Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe know that there are 227 players out of options?). O’Brien presumably gets his info from that list; how else would he come up with a conclusive list like he did?
tgthree - February 15, 2009
He could have come up with the list by keeping track of the guys on the team and how many years they’ve been on 40 man rosters, like a reporter who’s attached to the team should have.
This right of refusal rule is basically the same thing as being out of options. Nobody is going to allow themselves to be optioned if they have the right to refuse. That’s probably why I’ve never even heard of this.
And Anthony Lerew is proof that it’s four years. He was on the 40 man starting at the beginning of 05, and was optioned in 05, 06, 07, and 08.
cbwilk - February 15, 2009
Right. You can be optioned for four of your first five seasons. If the team doesn’t use all four of those option years before you have five years of service time, then the team loses that fourth year. After five years of service time, the first three option years don’t go away (unless the team has already used them), but the player has right of refusal; thus, the player is NOT technically considered to be out of options, and it’s not unheard of for players with 5+ years of service time to accept optional assignments (though it is rare).
tgthree - February 15, 2009
Yep, you’ve totally proven to me that you were right on this one.
I still think it’s unwise to mention guys who are past those five years as being players with options remaining. Saying a guy has options left, but not mentioning that he can refuse them isn’t giving the whole story. Realistically, and for simplicity’s sake, everyone who can’t be optioned without needing approval should be lumped together as out of options (even though,as you have more than enough shown, this isn’t technically the case).
cbwilk - February 15, 2009
I’m guessing that’s not sarcasm…
If we do take O’Brien’s list as complete, then we’re back to where I started: the four players who can be optioned without needing approval are Anderson, Boyer, Lerew and Stockman.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
friends
mattdiaz4life - February 15, 2009
Nope, not sarcasm. But those are the four that can’t, just a typo.
cbwilk - February 16, 2009
Found it.
“With that in mind, here’s the Braves’ list of out-of-options players on the current 40-man roster: OF Josh Anderson; right-handers Blaine Boyer, Derek Lowe, Anthony Lerew, Rafael Soriano and Phil Stockman; lefty Mike Gonzalez; catcher David Ross, and utilityman Greg Norton.”
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2009/02/02/renewed_optimis.html
It makes sense if you think about it: when was Chipper ever sent back to the minors once he got on the 25-man roster? He still has options left.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
Doesn’t Gregor Blanco have no options left as well? I thought I remembered that he didn’t last year and Prado, too. Maybe I’m wrong, though.
mccannfan - February 15, 2009
See the discussion above between myself and cbwilk. I stick by O’Brien that the only four players without options are Anderson, Boyer, Lerew and Stockman. Blanco did have options left last spring, and Prado (while he does have options) is probably in no danger of missing the team.
tgthree - February 15, 2009
Yea
I think last year was Blanco’s debut, so he would have to have options left I believe
eaheckman10 - February 15, 2009
See (and I know we’ve settled this tgthree, but dammit, I just don’t trust O’Brien) I could have swore that Blanco was on the 40 man for three years, was optioned all three, and then taken off, before being put back on just before the 08 season. I would think he’s out of options, but I’m just not sure anymore.
cbwilk - February 16, 2009
As far as I can see, Blanco’s transaction history never includes removal from the 40-man roster. He was added to the 40-man roster prior to the 2006 Rule 5 Draft (November 2006). So he’s been on the 40-man for just two years, and he wasn’t optioned at all last year (he stayed with the big club all year long). Again, so far as I can tell, he’s been on the 40-man roster for two seasons and the Braves have used one of his option years.
tgthree - February 16, 2009
Luis Valdez is my super sleeper bullpen prospect this year. he was really good in AA last year and has a pretty live arm. he could give us something later in the year if he doesn’t overwhelm in camp. Moylan will be in the Atl bullpen at some point in the year I believe.
yondaime4 - February 15, 2009
I think we’ve all missed the best part of this.
PROSPECT Q&A WITH YOU KNOW WHO TOMORROW
Awesome.
bigjoe - February 15, 2009
Voldemort?
TradeAndruw - February 15, 2009
THE ONE WHOSE NAME CANNOT BE MENTIONED
Or something along those lines. I’m not a fan of fake wizards.
bigjoe - February 15, 2009
I’ll get you next time, Gadget…NEXT TIME
mattdiaz4life - February 15, 2009
Relievers
I really like our bullpen arms to choose from this spring. Well I like the righties much more than the lefties. It’s hard to believe that any of those lefties have a high probability of success. I’m still holding out hope that Ohman will come back to the Braves and offer a discount because he loves playing in Atlanta. I know that’s probably not gonna happen but it’s OK to dream, right? I would hate to see us lose Stockman without ever giving him a legitimate shot. His minor league numbers are insane and Bobby has just ignored him again and again. I think we’ll be sorry if we let him go.
KC Ryan - February 15, 2009
11 or 12 pitchers?
I think we’ll have to carry five actual outfielders if there’s a Diaz platoon in left with a slow older player, because we’ll need two CFs one of whom (Blanco) can also be a defensive replacement in LF. Barring a trade, Infante may be our only backup SS this year, with Diory getting optioned and Prado and Norton coming off the bench. That’s 14 position players with McCann and Ross.
If Glavine joins the rotation, the bullpen competition will be fierce.
If we go with 12 pitchers the pen would appear to be Gonzalez, Campillo, Boyer, Soriano, Bennett, a lefty, and one more guy with Moylan and Acosta leading the pack. Moylan’s injury was serious enough to think he may start the season on the DL. Option Acosta (or lose the LOOGY) and we could begin the season with 11 pitchers.
If Glavine is ready for regular work, Kawakami could get generous rest early in the season. If we don’t insert Glavine in the rotation, Campillo can do relief work between starts.
Stockman and Lerew are out of options. Unless he goes back on the DL, I see us trading Lerew. Stockman is on the provisional Aussie roster for the WBC. He has always pitched exceptionally well in the minors when healthy, but Bobby prefers durable bullpen righties (Yates, Moylan, Boyer, Bennett.) I’d hate to lose the Stockman without ever seeing him pitch regularly in the majors.
A Gwinnett rotation of Hanson-Reyes-Morton-Carlyle-Parr (or Redmond) shows how far we’ve come. Not so long ago they were contenders for our major league rotation.
JimK - February 15, 2009
I don’t think we use Carlyle as a starter in AAA. Wouldn’t we be better off letting Redmond start and further his development at the AAA level?
KC Ryan - February 16, 2009
The only thing I disagree on is.
Phil Stockman not making the team and Jeff Bennett making it. I think Jeff’s stock has gone down and Phil has gone up. But I could see them both in a possible trade at the dead line.
Shag23 - February 16, 2009
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